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On March 20 2013 12:55 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2013 11:59 sciberbia wrote:
Hi all. I plan to be here for the next several hours.
I agree with the general sentiment that lynching either BH or VE is dumb today as a matter of general strategy. here is no really strong evidence that either of them is scum. I don't think they should be lynch candidates. Sci.. the above is interesting.. so far the only case I noticed on VE is from DarthPunk. Henceforth, the corollary is that the DP case on VE is rubbish (i..e not really strong) Lets get context here: DP is a strong player.. after all DP does have the highest win ratio on the TL Database. And has had scum and town games that have all resulted in the same outcome.. victory With that context: Do you expect more substance from a town DP? If the case is "not strong' as you suggest, what impact does this have on your DP read?
My thoughts on DP's case on VE and its influence of my read on DP (or lack thereof)
+ Show Spoiler +
First of all, not really strong =/= rubbish
I would describe his case as quite reasonable, but not as strong as he seemed to think it was.
I think DarthPunk made some valid points about VE. Here are some things I agree with and think are more indicative of a scum agenda than a townie agenda:
- VE made a bad case on DarthPunk
- VE severely downplayed the popularity of 'pressure voting' among townies on TL
- VE oddly lost interest in DP as a D1 lynch candidate and did not really explain why
DP seems to have felt that this paints VE as extremely likely scum. I don't think this evidence is as strong as DP seems to think it is. From what I know of VE, he seems capable of this behavior as town.
So DP clearly holds VE to a much higher standard than I do. Maybe DP is town and just wrong to hold him to such a high standard. Maybe I am wrong to not hold him to a higher standard. Who knows? Despite his supposedly impressive win percentage, neither of us is the be-all end-all jesus of scumhunting. And even the best of townies make incorrect conclusions all the time.
So I'm not going to have a scumread on DP just because I disagree with him on the strength of one of his cases.
My thoughts on the fact that he "delurked" to jump on the WoS wagon
+ Show Spoiler +
I have no reason to believe that he was intentionally lurking and opportunistically jumped on the WoS wagon. I don't assume that people are intentionally lurking whenever they are not posting. That's just paranoid and silly.
Also, I have significant suspicions of WoS and I thought the kita case was good. So it is not alarming for me that he sheeped it.
my read on DP
+ Show Spoiler +
I still think that he is town for reasons I have already said:
- first post on geript draws attention to himself
- interacted consistently with thread while under threat of bandwaggon
- seemed like he genuinely wanted to get VE lynched
- also, I really liked how he responded to the cases against him. IMO, the cases were just bad. And his response was "These cases totally suck. You guys must be scum for spouting this garbage" which is a response typical of an indignant townie
The only thing I don't like in his filter is that he goes from VE is 100% scum to fine let's not lynch VE when VE claimed a hit. I mean, if VE was actually 100% scum then DP should be 100% sure that VE is lying so the blue claim should be nothing to DP so DP should still want to lynch VE.
However, I think there is an obvious and plausible explanation in that DP simply overstated his confidence on the VE case in order to attract attention to it.
@Mocsta
I am quite puzzled by your line of questioning here, as I have said several times in the thread now that I think the DP wagon was bad, and I think DP is town.
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Catching up with the conversation, I do agree that it comes off as scummy to use the word 'mislynch' there as DP did. However if what he says about his meta is true (and I have no reason to suspect it's not) then this point is null.
Also, the fact that DP did not already know and therefore point out to you that I think he is town is comforting.
I'm quite seriously thinking town on DP and I don't think you'd be able to change my mind. But if you feel that strongly, feel free to make a case.
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@Mocsta
I really think this line of questioning is going nowhere. Off the top of my head, I can think of 5 times I have already said that I think the DP wagon is bad and that DP is town. If DP is in fact scum and does in fact care very much what I think about him, he would almost certainly have noticed this in my filter, and not been alarmed when you asked for my opinion.
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Fun fact: assuming there are 5 scum and 18 townies remaining, there is a 78.2% chance that any given player is town just based on math.
Anyway, unless you have anything else for me Mocsta, I am going to resume looking over WoS.
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OK I have been studying WoS's filter for a while now and my conclusion is that there is a pretty good chance he is scum. I still want to look at the meta defenses of him since they are supposedly significant.
In the meantime, I would like to get some thoughts on this IMO suspicious back-and-forth between two of my top suspects: WoS and cosmicomics. Read carefully. I think it is evidence against both of them individually, and would make even more sense if both are scum.
On March 18 2013 19:32 glurio wrote:
(paraphrased)
1. It is dumb to go after people on the DP wagon
2. WoS had bad reasoning for voting GreyMist over Zarepath
On March 18 2013 22:54 WaveofShadow wrote:
Also glurio, you're still a newbie in my eyes so maybe I can excuse your immediate contradiction within your post.
You imply that it's dumb that people are going for those who originally voted DP (namely, you) and group me along with you, and then IN THE SAME FUCKING POST you accuse me of shit WHEN WE'RE IN THE SAME BOAT?
Is this really the town I'm going to have to put up with this game?
REALLY?
On March 18 2013 23:17 WaveofShadow wrote:
lol.
LOL.
You stuck to your read when you sheep voted him with no fucking reason??
Wow, glurio.
Not to mention switched a vote onto him from Sandroba whom you ALSO had barely any reason to vote in the first place. 'Pressure.....right.'
As for my defense, this is I'll I'm going to give you because you honestly aren't even worth my time.
...
You haven't posted anything useful at all yet, you're sheeping just as much as you accuse me of doing but you haven't posted any real reads with proper backup or pushed anything (aside from me right now because it's the new cool thing to do).
But please, by all means keep it coming and tunnel me instead of hunting for real scum. It's not like this is a distraction or anything from the real point of the game.
On March 19 2013 01:24 cosmicomics wrote:
WaveofShadow, where are you getting your townish read on glurio?
On March 19 2013 01:58 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 01:24 cosmicomics wrote:
WaveofShadow, where are you getting your townish read on glurio? This is essentially how glurio has played every game. His reads are bad and he doesn't add much to a scumhunt. Every once in a while he'll actually attempt to put pressure on something but it doesn't amount to anything. He's a little lurkier than he was in LX and isn't putting as MUCH effort in so ima paint him null leaning town right now purely based on meta, but we'll see how the night/day pans out.
On March 19 2013 02:02 WaveofShadow wrote:
On that note, Vivax are you really sure glurio is scum? You should know what his game is like from LX; you don't think he was just sheeping badly?
Does this feel rather fishy to anyone else? I will recap:
-- Glurio posts accusation of WoS
-- WoS posts a defense in which he paints glurio in a scummy light
-- CC comes out of nowhere (no posts within 8 hours of this in either direction) to ask why WoS has a town read on glurio, even though anyone casually reading those posts would almost certainly not pick up on this.
-- WoS gives some meh reasoning for a nullish read on glurio despite his recent extreme agitation with him
I think this is fishy because:
cosmic had never talked about WoS or glurio previously, yet while he is online, the only thing he comments on is WoS's town read on glurio.
WoS seems to be painting glurio in a scummy light despite supposedly leaning town on him. He does this again later where he says he thinks my list looks like I'm scum trying to pick out easy targets, but then it turns out he has a town read on me. I don't think townies are likely to spend time making the thread see their own null/town reads as scummy.
DP/Mocsta/ whoever is online, I'd like some unbiased opinions here. Am I reading too much into this?
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On March 20 2013 16:34 DarthPunk wrote:
Hmmm. That is really solid. And you picked up on some stuff I completely missed.
I'm very happy you think so. I have other stuff to share about WoS too. Taking a quick food break though.
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+ Show Spoiler +On March 20 2013 16:34 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2013 15:46 geript wrote:On March 20 2013 15:18 Mocsta wrote:On March 20 2013 15:06 geript wrote:
Moc could you explain that logic more clearly. I'm not understanding that post at all. I can, if you let me know what you're struggling to follow. Surely its not the "whole thing" Here's what I mean: your problem with WoS as you summarize it is that in non-newb (non-first game) games he has more balls. You confront him on it. He turns on the 'balls factor.' You unvote based on said 'having balls' town read. Then you excuse the kita case essentially based on experienced player reading an experienced player when you say WoS isn't experienced and thus the whole case is invalid. There's nothing damning there and I can follow that at least. That said, I can't help but feel that this whole exchange is fishy because it comes off as you telling him how to act, then he acts that way, then you dismiss your vote and the case with a wave of the hand. (Pun intended). I categorize this as "Moc-type logic" but it still feels artificial to me. The last part is my real issue: For me, the case is upheld *ONLY IF* WoS hasnt pushed a lynch agenda during Day1. Thats when a sheep vote to me is scummy. From the quick filter browse i did, it looked like he satisfied the above, thus, making the case invalid to me. You say the case is upheld only if WoS doesn't push a lynch agenda D1. Honestly, I didn't remember a lynch agenda from him D1 and the only points re:lynch are a +1 on DP and a preference on GM over Zare. He even noted his meta reads are crap; I think he also called my meta reads as crap (based on previous games where Zare had at least softclaimed town early). However, I don't remember him commenting on DYH's meta read at all. I don't see a real case push from WoS D1 which makes the case still stand then right? Wow Geript.. I wrote this whole post and said fuck it. im not gonna be lazy, I will read 6 pages of WoS. It changed everything. You are right. Kita case still stands.I was wrong. this fucker did not do anything until the Kita case (which is the only stuff I read when WoS asked me to look @ his filter  my derp) I was under the impression he had pushed Mr.Wiggles all of Day 1.. obviously wrong. I dindt realise the majority of his filter came from late Night1/early Day 2. And also that the majority of his filter is just talking shit. There is not a clear agenda. I need to read WoS defense of Kita case one more time, because I wasnt satisfied the first time around; but was giving undue credit for pushing a case Day1. For your reference, the below is the post i was about to make before reading WoS filter. + Show Spoiler +
(1) "Balls"
Now for what you raised:
I didnt unvote WoS because he turned the balls factor on... that would be invalid (cos i gave him a way out)..
The way it went down: I skipped to the most recent page, saw that limp post of him and was like WTF, WoS doesnt play like that and made my meta validation vote post. It was that simple. I think its pretty obvious when i voted him, it was with intention to lynch.
He then identified to me, that he had "balls" before the meta case. As such, the meta case post in my opinion became his saving grace.
(2) Why lynch push is important
I know you love poker. so let me me analogous to that.
Pros expect a certain level of play, and can actually struggle against newbies, because they dont understand/conform to the "rules' of the game and make unpredicatable/stupid plays.
I believe that was the basis of kitaman case on WoS. Those tells on someone like DP would indeed be the nail in the coffin. Unfortunately I dont find them as strong on newbies, because typically they are not as aware of what constitutes good play; or the ramifications of their own play.
Hence why I said, Kita case points are indeed valid scum tells; but to me only point to a scum WoS if he hasnt pushed a lynch candidate hard. (That would be the turning point for me to consider the tells as scum, and not newbie town being unaware/stupid).
(3) Is the case invalid - i.e. did WoS push anyone hard
I need to do a proper read of his filter, instead of just a couple pages.
Based on Day2 play, I thought he pushed ppl; hence my retraction of vote.
Based on Day1 play, I havent read it (yet.. planning to tonight)
If WoS indeed only discussed "Im not familiar to know these meta reads" and didnt push a lynch vote, then I would give serious consideration to Kita case, and most likely lead to a vote on WoS.
Unfortunately, I am making a leap of faith currently that the targets WoS pushed today (i.e. Mr.Wiggles etc) are the same ppl from Day1. If that is the situation at hand, then I think Kita case is invalid in full.
err no he didn't push any agenda D1. I was going to point this out too:
In fact as of N1 Wiggles was one of his "strongest town reads". By early D2, Wiggles was the scummiest person in the thread to WoS. The conversion does not look convincing to me. Look into this as well as my post above and tell me what you think.
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On March 20 2013 16:25 sciberbia wrote:
WoS seems to be painting glurio in a scummy light despite supposedly leaning town on him. He does this again later where he says he thinks my list looks like I'm scum trying to pick out easy targets, but then it turns out he has a town read on me. I don't think townies are likely to spend time making the thread see their own null/town reads as scummy.
I feel like I should provide quotes for reference here:
On March 19 2013 16:02 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 16:01 sciberbia wrote:
alright i feel compelled to make a deadline post in case I am shot. But I don't think that's especially likely.
I did one readthrough of everyone's filter during night-phase. Here are the people I felt best about being town:
vivax, DP, DYH
And here are people I think have a decent chance of being scum:
geript
WoS
BH
glurio
zarapeth
trancestorm
cosmicomics
Meh not sure I should even post this. Well if I die, at least look into the filters I listed for possible scum. Aside from BH, I see a common theme in your scum list, that is, players who either have barely contributed or could be seen as newbies. I don't like it, and not just because I'm included.
On March 19 2013 16:16 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 16:14 Mocsta wrote:On March 19 2013 16:11 WaveofShadow wrote:
You have, I don't know how much of a vet GK is, Mr Wiggles, Mocsta.... THnx, but i am certianly not a vet.. check my profile. Started playing in the new year 2013 More so than me and most of the other 'newbies' named on his list, Mocsta. The list just looks to me like he's looking for easy scumreads to throw out there with minimal chance of being called out if he's wrong because they're either new/bad or lurky.
And then later.
On March 20 2013 12:41 WaveofShadow wrote:
Scib:
I read you as town. You've been sticking to your reads (a few too many lists for my liking but whatever) and I especially like that you've been attempting to keep zare in the spotlight, who also looks incredibly scummy to me and has for most of the game. Bring the aforementioned case against me if you must; I'll do my best to shut it down along with the rest, sigh.
Like what as the point of trying to convince people that ONE of my posts is scummy if he overall has a town read on me? It doesn't seem townie-motivated.
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+ Show Spoiler +On March 20 2013 16:48 geript wrote:
@Scib. I don't think so. The two strangest things about it to me are:
1. The "Is this the town I'm going to have to put up with?" comment. It looks like he's internally distanced himself from the town. I want to look at the context and timing of this.
2. WoS giving a town leaning read on Glurio based on meta despite the fact that at multiple points he's said that he's not good at meta reads and doesn't put too much stock in meta reads (or similar comments IIRC).
@Moc I want an answer to my last post before I come back. Fristed.
Either way, I'm done studying for tonight and need some sleep. I'm going to be back after my exams to reread ~8-10 hours prior to lynch and post some more comments then.
@geript
What is the "I don't think so" in response to?
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@Oatsmaster
you have 4 names on the Wiggles wagon but the votecount shows only 3
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Sweet. DP, are you down with a WoS lynch? I know you said you think he's town before, but you didn't say why. I'm feeling pretty good about it. I think I will try to consolidate all of my evidence against him into one post because that will probably prove more effective for the purpose of convincing the rest of the thread.
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WoS is quite likely scum and should be today's lynch
@Mocsta
Thanks a lot for that last post. I was going to request that somebody do that.
I will just say everything that hasn't already been said in this post. To anyone reading this, please filter me for a few other reasons I think WoS is scum. I encourage everyone to thoroughly read at the very least, kita's case, and the last couple pages of discussion about WoS.
His 180 on Wiggles in not convincing
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On March 19 2013 11:00 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 10:44 zarepath wrote:
So after looking through Wiggle's filter, he starts off not liking GreyMist or goodkarma, both of which were already under suspicion by other players. After that, everything else he says is defending a player -- he defends Coag's meta, he suggests that people's arguments against TPS aren't good enough (while also stating that he doesn't know how he feels about the guy himself -- wait and see), when asked specifically to talk about Coag he makes a super long post that ends up with a tl;dr of "wait and see", says he's going to take some time to digest goodkarma's defense, defends Vivax against the suggestion of a scumslip, says that VE's case on DP isn't that strong, then criticizes a DYH lynch.
His final vote/read that he actually sticks to is one he only makes after sciberbia specifically asks him what he thinks about GM and GK, and he ends up picking GM, and his first reason why is "as I stated earlier in the thread;" ie, I was totally thinking he was scum the whole time even while I was voting for GK, the guy I no longer thing is scum. BTW, he really likes Ryu's case on him, and uses that in his argument.
Then you have the post that Trance brought up. It looks a lot like he spent most of D1 criticizing arguments and not actually going after scum, and when he finally had to pick, he was apologetic for it and seems to be prepping himself for a town flip.
I read him as scum until he provides some cases or reads, because so far he has only suspected two people, one of which he unvoted and the other one he was almost apologetic about voting for. Strike 100 zare. Mr. Wiggles is probably one of my strongest townreads at the moment. His analysis is actually quite strong and he is not afraid to go against popular opinion (he shut down VE's read on DP just as it was gaining traction amongst the town), risking being seen as soft defending a scumbuddy. He stuck with his reads on GK and GM throughout the day, if you read his posts, with his opinions changing slightly as more information cropped up. This post of yours on the other hand is just a summary of Mr. Wriggle's filter with a weak case against him at the end; which you assume to be scummy when in fact he read correctly into GreYMist's lack of caring. He did call him scummy in the end but I would argue is unapologetic about it; much like my tunneling of geript last game he points out the GM put us in a bad position essentially looking really scummy during the day and his lack of attendance and giving up with regards to his lynch forced the town's hand. Looking mroe into your recent posts: Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 10:08 zarepath wrote:On March 19 2013 09:06 Vivax wrote:On March 19 2013 09:01 zarepath wrote:
Vivax I stop reading your posts as soon as you make reads on others based on the fact that I am scum.
Like, you are wasting tons and tons of time and energy based off of my poor play. Please do yourself and everyone else a favor and make cases on people without me being scum as the prime argument.
Back to work now. What should I do, you guys defended each other so obviously it becomes evident to those who start by looking at your voting. FYI though, my case on you, GK and cosmicomics isn't centered on the connection to you, that is just what links you together in the bigger picture and actually gave away TPS and glurio to me. Why do you refer to your play as poor though? Because I'm town and too many people think that I'm not. I didn't have much time to play over the weekend and wasted it by saying noncommittal things and then bouncing, making it look worse. This is what makes me really think you're scum. In NMM 37 this was not your style of play at all even when you weren't around. You would pop in from time to time and take strong stances and PUSH your reads rather than sit back (aside from the fake case on me at the start). You've played in enough games to know better than this; hell it would have been better for you to lurk than to do what you're doing, you'd draw less attention to yourself. So during N1, WoS made the above post where he said Wiggles was probably one of his strongest town reads. Not only this, but he gave some explicit reasoning such as "strong analysis", "stuck with reads", and "not afraid". Then at 09:45 TL time on D2, WoS votes Wiggles. This is less than 24 hours from when Wiggles was one of his strongest town reads. Wiggles made five reasonably sized posts in between. WoS's justification for voting Wiggles was that 'he just didn't seem to give a shit'. Also keep in mind that the Wiggles wagon looked like it might roll into a lynch at this point. Now ask yourself if this really seems like a townie. He went from "probably one of strongest townreads" to "im hopping on the wiggles weapon" over the course of 22 hours during which Wiggles made 5 reasonable posts. And the justification was that "Wiggles didn't seem to give a shit". I don't buy it.
WoS piles suspicion on zarepath for D2 but doesn't push the lynch
+ Show Spoiler +See these posts from WoS during N1 and D2 concerning zarepath: + Show Spoiler +On March 18 2013 23:35 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2013 23:26 zarepath wrote:On March 16 2013 16:22 ThePeashooter wrote:
I have no idea how the quoting got messed up, but Devil and Nightmare should both be red. I imagine Devil would be some type of Godfather-ish role. I am re-reading through the thread right now, but this makes me think that TPS is town. What? Why? Zare you REALLY have to start giving more than that to alleviate suspicion. I don't see how mis-speculating on roles is anything but null. On March 19 2013 11:00 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 10:44 zarepath wrote:
So after looking through Wiggle's filter, he starts off not liking GreyMist or goodkarma, both of which were already under suspicion by other players. After that, everything else he says is defending a player -- he defends Coag's meta, he suggests that people's arguments against TPS aren't good enough (while also stating that he doesn't know how he feels about the guy himself -- wait and see), when asked specifically to talk about Coag he makes a super long post that ends up with a tl;dr of "wait and see", says he's going to take some time to digest goodkarma's defense, defends Vivax against the suggestion of a scumslip, says that VE's case on DP isn't that strong, then criticizes a DYH lynch.
His final vote/read that he actually sticks to is one he only makes after sciberbia specifically asks him what he thinks about GM and GK, and he ends up picking GM, and his first reason why is "as I stated earlier in the thread;" ie, I was totally thinking he was scum the whole time even while I was voting for GK, the guy I no longer thing is scum. BTW, he really likes Ryu's case on him, and uses that in his argument.
Then you have the post that Trance brought up. It looks a lot like he spent most of D1 criticizing arguments and not actually going after scum, and when he finally had to pick, he was apologetic for it and seems to be prepping himself for a town flip.
I read him as scum until he provides some cases or reads, because so far he has only suspected two people, one of which he unvoted and the other one he was almost apologetic about voting for. Strike 100 zare.Mr. Wiggles is probably one of my strongest townreads at the moment. ... This is what makes me really think you're scum. In NMM 37 this was not your style of play at all even when you weren't around. You would pop in from time to time and take strong stances and PUSH your reads rather than sit back (aside from the fake case on me at the start). You've played in enough games to know better than this; hell it would have been better for you to lurk than to do what you're doing, you'd draw less attention to yourself. On March 19 2013 11:09 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 19 2013 11:00 goodkarma wrote:On March 19 2013 10:13 zarepath wrote:On March 19 2013 09:28 goodkarma wrote:
Okay I'm back in thread now. I'm slowly going through other people's filters. But the first one I'd like to bring up is Zarepath, since it seems Vivax is eager to see what I have to say about him.
First off, before anything else, I would like to say (and I believe others have said it too) to Vivax that an association based case on multiple unflipped players is flat-out bad. Putting that aside though, Zarepath is a player I put in the category of newer, less experienced player. When such a player is town he tends to be easier to mislynch, as he has not adopted his own solid playstyle yet. Looking into Zarepath's filter, he's been quite lazy about sharing his reads. His excuses have been "I'm new to this format," and "I'll be far more active during the week." Well, he should have at least gotten orientated to the format by now, and it is now a weekday. As such, I expect to see an explosion of activity from him. I believe the concerns about him are valid, and that he indeed is acting very scummy. It's also worth noting he does seem to be much more involved in his past town games, and as such I'd say I'm leaning scum on him. Certainly, he needs to be sharing his reads much better than he is right now so we can get better insight into his thought process. What did you think of my case on Hopeless1der? Nobody has responded to it yet. In other news, I like Trance's point on Wiggles -- his post could be scum prepping for a Greymist town flip. Will be looking into that more. One reason for that might be that you spoilered the entire thing... Looking at it, as best I can tell you point out that Hopeless hasn't really provided much substantive content, and that his complete flip on his stance on Darth is odd. I could see some potential scum motivation for these actions, but honestly your case is pretty thin. You can't just go through a guy's post history and say "this and that are odd..." What we're interested in is scum motivation. As in: Why is it that this particular post is more likely for scum Hopeless to make than town Hopeless? As it stands your recent case posts sometimes read like summaries of the guy's actions. Which is just fluff that makes it ten times harder to read, and doesn't add any value... The Hopeless case was not that substantial imo, which is part of the reason people probably didn't say much about it. With a rather sparse filter and a replacement coming in, we'll have a better read on him after Ace subs in. You read his most recent cases, then read this: Show nested quote +On February 14 2013 12:20 zarepath wrote:
I don't know, so many holes here. Conveniently not believing in bread crumbs, not claiming in the hour that he himself said that the vigilante should have claimed, only killing WaveofShadow so that he could get INFORMATION on Corazon, wanting to stay "null" so scum don't have a target for tomorrow night... I mean, giving town a confirmed townie on Day 2 is HUGE, and getting picked of N2 isn't so awful because that means any active blue roles we may have get a full nother night of actions in.
Really dubious claim.
##Vote ObviousOne The rest of his filter that game is constant questioning of other with regards to his reads, and some list posts yes, but without fluff; he actually takes a stand in many of these. + Show Spoiler +On February 14 2013 04:10 zarepath wrote:Zarepath's Readsby Zarepath9-Bit + Show Spoiler +
Nothing to see. Looking forward to a modkill or replacement.
Sevryn + Show Spoiler +
I had a null read on him at the lynch -- he jumped on my fake case, added a little to it, tunneled glurio. But post-flip, he went very proactively defensive for it, saying that everybody was too focused on glurio/himself as the dichotomy. But HE was focused on glurio. Now that glurio's flipped, I want to see what his reads are on EVERYONE. If he was so certain about glurio, who does he think is scum now?
Slight scum read on Sevryn.
WaveofShadow + Show Spoiler +
I see him as being mostly proactive with a variety of reads. I don't understand what his big controversial post quoting Mocsta and Sn0_Man was about, other than the fact they wanted to go after lurkers and their plan failed. I read him as genuinely trying to help town.
Sn0_Man + Show Spoiler +
His filter's filled with a lot of theory, policy, and meta talk. He interacts directly with a lot of other posters, and is very active. But towards the end of Day 1, he was practically begging other people to make cases he could bandwagon onto, finally settling on Sevryn. He is active enough that I don't consider him scummy, but trudging through his filter doesn't make me think he's absolutely pro-town. Leaning town, but not as sure as I used to be.
ObviousOne + Show Spoiler +
His assessment of Day 1 was pretty useful. I agree with Mocsta that we need to see his reads. Null, slightly to town based on his opening, but only slightly.
Warbaby + Show Spoiler +
Starts with general policy talk, his third post is a list, needlessly antagonistic to WoS, bunch of meta, insults everybody's mafia skills, tells people to mislynch him, prefers voting lurkers over scum, constantly asserts that he has no idea who the scum are, his final top 3 are sylencia, sevryn, then glurio. Is now focused on sevryn. I don't think he's as scummy as I've thought of him now that I've read thorugh the whole filter; I have a null read on him now, depending on how his case on Sevryn develops.
geript + Show Spoiler +
Geript was one of the only ones who really dug into my fake WoS case. He bought it, but only after he went through it and actually criticized a few of the points. He now has a case on Corazon that is at least original, and it's labeled Case 1, suggesting he has another case coming. I read him as leaning town.
Mocsta + Show Spoiler +
Super active first half of Day 1, went to "actively lurking" since after pouting about knowing when he's not wanted, and has done a lot of things that I see as pro-town -- encouraging two names so we can have clear bandwagons, picking apart bad logic, etc. I read him as town. The only other thing I'll note is that it's odd how little he's contributed (although he still has tons of filter). I think he's legit going for a different strat, but will keep an eye on him, obviously.
Corazon + Show Spoiler +
His Day 1 seemed pretty typical of his town meta, but he really pushed on his WB vote but didn't actively try to persuade anyone else; he just kept re-quoting his case, and then when the lynch was getting confusing, instead of asking for consolidation onto his TOP READ that he's had all day, instead he bandwagons onto Glurio. It's hard to judge any voting motivations from the Day 1 lynch, but this is suspicious to me. He gave a pretty town response to my WoS case, though. Null, leaning town.
Mandalor + Show Spoiler +
Mandalor's filter looks very scummy. Every other post is a list, the main thrust of his case on Sylencia has to do with blue talk, and the case for his final vote is not compelling at all. He just drops a random vote and checks out, doesn't even wish town luck. (To be fair, I did something similar because of time and RL constraints.) People's reactions to my vote on Mandalor were that they had town reads on him, but I'd like to ask you all what specifically makes him look town to you, because I don't see much. Reads SCUM
Sylencia + Show Spoiler +Pretty vocal opponent of RNG there at the beginning, then his activity fades from there. He speculates HARD on warbaby's possible blue roles, not necessarily a very pro-town thing to do in public on Day 1, and that is the biggest contribution he made at all. He said he hadn't read very many filters, admitted to tunneling warbaby, then voted for him. In the end, he posted this gem: On February 13 2013 09:54 Sylencia wrote:
.. What lol, I gave my reasons before and I'm voting for him to consolidate my thoughts on him. I will have to change my vote to glurio if required to stay alive though. Town don't change their votes in order to stay alive; town believe in their scum reads or are willing to work with other people's scum reads. THey certianly don't do so just to stay alive; lynching scum is more important than a town's individual life. This quote makes it sound as though his number one concern is not being lynched. It's worth going through all the filters, apparently, because this was the last post in the final filter, and I think it's the biggest, latest scum tell. In conclusion, people I think are suspicious and would like other's thoughts on: Sevryn Warbaby Mandalor Sylencia Obv and 9-Bit's replacement also deserve scrutiny. But right now my two biggest reads are Sylencia and Mandalor. I think people should look at my brief reads on them, read their filters, and I want to hear your own conclusions. On March 19 2013 15:52 WaveofShadow wrote:
Keir you make a good point, but then if anything that points to zarepath being scummy rather than someone you don't want to focus on D2.... On March 19 2013 16:15 WaveofShadow wrote:
After a quick read-through of his (TPS) filter I don't find anything nearly as damning as you seem to find about him, BH.
I'd certainly like to see some more solid reads from him during the day though, as there won't be any excusing a second day of the bare minimum of contribution.
I'm interested to hear his thoughts on zare and whether he's changed his mind since reading him as scummy earlier in the day (without committing...) On March 19 2013 16:25 WaveofShadow wrote:
Anyway it's late as all fuck right now and I have to go to bed. I fully plan on dedicating today to closing the book on zare one way or another as the town seems to be relatively polarized regarding whether they think he's town or scum. I expect some more posting from him so we'll be able to look into it. I also have to delve into some more filters and re-read a little because I feel like I have too many town-reads and not enough scum.
Night all. On March 20 2013 04:53 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2013 04:52 Vivax wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On March 20 2013 04:51 zarepath wrote:
VE, what is the name of your role? You never said, you just claimed Vet. What's the purpose of this question? Don't you believe the claim? Zare is scum rolecop imo On March 20 2013 04:59 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2013 04:55 zarepath wrote:
I believe it for now, but there's no reason to not ask for information that can only help town at this point. It's not as if mafia will learn from the name of his role what his power is, because he's already claimed.
I just found it odd he didn't say it when the other blue claim did, and can't think of how revealing it would hurt town. How exactly would it HELP town? This looks REAL scummy zare. On March 20 2013 04:53 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2013 04:52 Vivax wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On March 20 2013 04:51 zarepath wrote:
VE, what is the name of your role? You never said, you just claimed Vet. What's the purpose of this question? Don't you believe the claim? Zare is scum rolecop imo On March 20 2013 04:59 WaveofShadow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2013 04:55 zarepath wrote:
I believe it for now, but there's no reason to not ask for information that can only help town at this point. It's not as if mafia will learn from the name of his role what his power is, because he's already claimed.
I just found it odd he didn't say it when the other blue claim did, and can't think of how revealing it would hurt town. How exactly would it HELP town? This looks REAL scummy zare. WoS is ALL OVER zarepath throughout this timespan. But he doesn't do anything about it. I would expect a townie to be like: "Listen up bitches. Zarepath is scum. Lynch him. ##Vote: Zarepath" But instead WoS is all like: "Zarepath you so scummy. LOL Zarepath acting scummy again. Can you gus believe this? soo.... someone's gonna start a wagon for me to jump on right?" Not only does he NOT start a wagon on zarepath, but he puts his vote on Wiggles as discussed above. This seems extremely inconsistent to me with his posts throughout N1. Also note, how he is often talking to zarepath about zarepath's scumminess, instead of addressing the rest of the thread. This is further evidence that he just wanted to make zarepath look scummy without actually being the one to push his lynch.
WoS uses fear-tactics to scare people off his wagon
+ Show Spoiler +
One last minor thing I want to mention because I feel like it almost worked.
By the time I finished studying his filter, I was a bit nervous myself to announce I was suspicious of him because the thread seemed to have turned into a witchhunt for people on the WoS wagon as if for some god-ordained reason being on the WoS wagon is scummy.
To be fair, I think that this was not solely due to WoS, but also people like Mocsta (not sure if maliciously). But I think it is worth mentioning anyway.
WoS admitted the kita case was good, but he attacked everyone that sheeped onto his wagon and talked about how there were probably several scum on his wagon.
I will be in the thread to push this lynch tomorrow if necessary. Would be happy to discuss anything. Could talk about even more stuff I find suspicious in WoS's filter if you guys really need persuading.
##Vote: WaveofShadow
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On March 20 2013 17:36 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2013 17:00 sciberbia wrote:
Sweet. DP, are you down with a WoS lynch? I know you said you think he's town before, but you didn't say why. I'm feeling pretty good about it. I think I will try to consolidate all of my evidence against him into one post because that will probably prove more effective for the purpose of convincing the rest of the thread. Yeah. I reckon I could lynch him. The main thing though is that he was very co-operative under pressure when I spoke with him rationally and then he did a reasonably good job of assessing the Kita case objectively. I don't know. How do you guys feel about his large analysis of kita's post?
tbh I didn't pay it much attention. It looked like he just summarized/quoted what kita said and agreed with bits and pieces of it, and explained some things that were going through his mind when he made some of those posts, such as things he heard in past games.
It looked pretty alignment-null to me. I think scum is certainly capable of writing that post.
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On March 20 2013 18:05 Mocsta wrote:
It wasn`t malicious sciberbia.
But yes. I shared responsibility for the witch hunt.
For the record I have thumbed through your filter once and I don't have any strong feelings on your alignment. It wasn't meant to be a jab at you. + Show Spoiler +Maybe should have left that point about the "witch-hunt" out entirely since I think the other ones are stronger anyway.
Anyway, I'm officially done working for the night. Will be in the thread a little longer but I expect to doze off pretty soon. I'm pretty happy with the state of D2 and am really optimistic about a scum lynch.
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@Mocsta
The line in BH's first post about not wanting to let GK get mislynched stuck out to me as well. It doesn't seem like there was ever any doubt in BH's mind that GK is town. I think this is a bit suspicious because I feel like I would be second-guessing myself if I were town in his position, what with the rest of the thread demanding GK's blood and all.
I feel like the relationship between BH and GK is more like that of teacher-apprentice than peer-peer so mostly passive agreement with a little insight here or there is about what I'd expect regardless of GK's alignment. I don't feel like the logs say a whole lot about GK's alignment.
As to Ace, I'd obviously prefer that he post more, but we can't do anything about it. If at some point we run out of scummy candidates and Ace is still alive and hasn't done shit then we should lynch him at that time.
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@DYH
I think the Mirror is probably a third party. Did you read the OP?
On March 09 2013 07:02 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
It is possible that your win condition will change at some point during the game. If this event would infuriate you, do not sign up. Measures have been taken to make sure that if this happens, your play should not have to change very much. Try to see it as a new challenge. It would be in your best interest to PM me questions whenever you have them, no matter how trivial they may seem.
Anyway, I too think that VE is a bad lynch today. See my next post.
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Jesus Christ this is messy
on WoS
His blueclaim does not affect my opinion on his alignment. I still think he is pretty likely to be scum, but I am willing to wait to see if he is still alive tomorrow, which I think he will be.
on TPS
He doesn't seem to be a lynch candidate anymore.
So the lynch is in 6 hours and we need to lynch someone
Current popular candidates seem to be VE, BH, and Wiggles.
on VE
I don't think lynching VE is a good idea. Let's look at the most important facts here. He is a claimed vet who supposedly took a hit last night, and we only have 1 shot accounted for by Keirathi's death, when the prevailing opinion is that scum have 2KP. Furthermore, he outed the Mirror to the thread, which seems like a very silly move if he is scum. So was VE a veteran? Yes it seems likely.
Now, if VE was attempting to get converted, clearly he would not have posted the logs in the thread. VE isn't mentally retarded and I don't see why he would try to lose the game. Even if VE is scum, posting those logs is a terrible strategy IMO. Just because VE said the words "I accept" clearly doesn't mean he was actually converted. I expect he would have to PM the host or something.
So the logical conclusion is that VE did not think he would be joining the Mirror. So it seems silly to speculate "well... maybe he will be forced to join the Mirror". Furthermore, we don't even know for a fact that the Mirror is a threat to us. In fact, judging from the chat logs where the Mirror says VE should just play "townie" and that will hardly conflict with the mirror's objective, I think there's a good chance that the Mirror is not a huge threat to us. So lynching VE for the purpose of trying to damage some 3rd party seems silly to me.
In conclusion, lynching VE does not make a lot of sense to me. I think he is most likely a veteran, and that he may or may not be in the process of getting recruited to some third party which may or may not be a threat to us.
on BH
BH seems more likely to be mafia than VE. Nevertheless, he is a claimed blue and I'm not particularly keen on lynching him today.
In conclusion, asdfjerp. Part of me wants to lynch WoS because I think he gives us the best shot of hitting scum today. I think cosmicomics is decently likely to be scum. I suppose I could tolerate a Wiggles lynch, although I don't think he has the greatest chance of flipping scum.
Can somebody explain to me why there are so many votes on VE? Do you guys all think he is scum or third party or are you just voting him to resolve this mess?
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On March 21 2013 10:52 DoYouHas wrote:
If I am wrong and The Mirror is a 3rd party recruitment role that requires people to go against their wincon in order to be recruited, then my problem is with DrH, because that just sounds absurd to me.
I agree there is something 'off' with that game mechanic. I am no expert on Dr H or game creation and I have not listened to this podcast, but it doesn't seem outside the realm of possibilities. Dr H did say there were 1 or 2 things out of the ordinary.
Couple other things to note.
1. The Mirror seemed to imply that VE was already converted and that the hosts were just late in notifying. Maybe it is a press-ganged type of thing idk.
2. Nobody else seems to have noticed this but it looks significant to me
On March 21 2013 01:20 VisceraEyes wrote:
If you are town, you have quite the powerful role. But dare I muse, it cannot be without limit? To you I offer an impregnable shield, one who will not falter during the night. Hide behind he and you can gain for yourself immortality.
If you are scum, then you will play the part of the double agent. Use your former teammates at your disposal. Manipulate the scum team to your own devices? To be numbered among the greats such as Keyser Söze, Mr. Orange, William "Billy" Costigan, Jr. or Staff Sgt. Colin Sullivan. Perhaps, to live out the dream that could have been Bureaucracy?
Of course if you are neither, you already know my purposes, and that you are but a step behind. Pressure me, threaten me, do as you wish, for I know it is all but a meaningless bluff.
What is this neither town nor scum nor mirror-aligned role that the mirror refers to?
I remember from some casual real-time games I played on some website there was a town-aligned role that was able to combat third-party cultists and prevent people from getting converted. Maybe we have one of those who would be capable of saving VE?
This isn't really relevant to the lynch discussion but seems important.
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EBWOP
just realized that this mystery role cannot be town-aligned based on what the mirror says. Is there like a 4th party as well?
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On March 21 2013 11:08 WaveofShadow wrote:
And scib did you not read the thread?
You REALLY think my claim is fake? K.
Mocsta, shut up about glurio, he's useless and yes he's scummy we can lynch him after we figure out the rest of this clusterfuck we call a game.
Are we seriously talking about lynching Coag now too? Good lord.
I have read every page of the thread at least once, and I do in fact have major doubts about your claim, as I just said. Maybe I'm wrong though. We'll see D3 I guess.
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EPT
