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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On March 01 2013 12:43 Chezinu wrote: You and wade ordered the day vig to shoot me. The majority of town voted for you two. I had flashback of getting shot by motbob day one. I shot milkman because thats who I was currently hunting and he never responded to me. If you're the town dayvig, how could you possibly be shot? | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On March 01 2013 12:45 WaveofShadow wrote: I hate my brain. + Show Spoiler + Oh god what if we have 2 dayvigs or if some retarded reason Chez is town and DrH just baited the mafia dayvig into shooting.....aaaaaaghWIFOMMMMMMM If Chezinu gets shot by a second dayvig and isn't scum then we have confirmed the other dayvig as scum. If Chezinu is the town dayvig, the mafia dayvig will never claim and can never use his KP and he'll be confirmed town in my eyes. Too big a risk to take as scum, since if he were the scum dayvig he would have the foresight to see that the town dayvig would just shoot him. Does that make sense? If he is the town dayvig he can do this to confirm his role and force the mafia dayvig into not using his shot because it would reveal scum. Are we never going to talk about toadesstern today | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On March 01 2013 12:45 jcarlsoniv wrote: So wait... DrH, if Chez flips town, would you be looking at grush to be scum dayvig? It's something like this that would make it easy for grush to gain towncred cuz he can claim "I WAS JUST FOLLOWING ORDERS FROM DRH" Yes, I would immediately vote for grush and yell at anyone who didn't. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On March 01 2013 12:47 MilkSuckler wrote: excellent observatoin I am really surprised Dr.h was on the ball to try and clear Chezinu asap... was very well executed & clear visioned im also surprsied Dr.H didnt post that reasoning before the kill went up....as it was generic and could have been issued at any point. I came home from 7-11 and it had already happened. I am not trying to clear Chezinu. I am asking that we withhold further discussion and wait for a countershot or counterclaim because then we have a 50/50 shot of killing scum and will at the worst case scenario have a 1:1 trade which is beneficial to town. but look at it this way, pro's and con's for that play from both sides: Scum Dayvig Pros: 1. Confirms you are some form of dayvig 2. Derails productive discussion Cons: 1. You get flak for shooting a townie 2. You are likely to get counterclaimed and confirmed as scum 3. If you are countershot, you die and the distraction will be pointless Town Dayvig pros: 1. Confirm your role 2. Mafia Dayvig can't act because it would out him Cons: 1. You might kill a townie I think a scumdayvig also would be more likely to shoot his accuser than the target of his analysis. That being said, I think it makes more sense as a town play. If I were a Dayvig I would have shot Toadesstern an hour ago. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On March 01 2013 12:49 jcarlsoniv wrote: Why are you necessarily making the assumption that there is 1 town dayvig and 1 scum dayvig? Why couldn't there be 2 town dayvig? Quite possible. But because scum has no prior knowledge of the setup I don't think they would use this shot in response to early Day 2 pressure because fear of counterclaim. If there is no other claim, I'm inclined to let Chezinu live for now but for balance reasons I think scum having 1 dayvig and town having none is incredibly unlikely. It is probably either 2 in favor of town or 1:1. Either way it would be a more productive way of dealing with Chezinu right now. I'm not sure I can be accused of defending him when I'm asking for him to be shot. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On March 01 2013 12:47 Chezinu wrote: That's was my point. And why I shot before being shot at. Its like Here mafia day vig shoot chez without any repercussions! Well in that case you would have flipped town dayvig and we would have instalynched the other one. We can still afford 1 mislynch at this point since we won Day 1 and I would never pass on a 50/50 split like that. IMO if you held your shot it would have done a much better job at baiting a scumdayvig out, but I wouldn't blame anybody for not thinking that far ahead. And of course everyone wants to stay in the game as long as they can sort of regardless of whether or not it's the ideal play, we're all selfish beings. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
Toadesstern: On March 01 2013 10:26 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Having a bitch of a time on Toadesstern's filter. A few things stand out to me which is that after his push on Prom (which was 2-3 posts that didn't go longer than a paragraph or two), he immediately started patting himself on the back and spending the rest of the day arguing with other people about himself. It was his idea to kill the Pardoner (a plan he admitted was bad when he thought about it pregame) but still wanted to discuss it and even push it at the end of the game. What I don't get is why a scum Toades would vote for VE under any circumstance when he knew there was a chance VE would kill him. Other than that, I see no reason to believe Toadesstern is really town in this game. He's quick to anoint himself as the star and most useful player in the thread but was absolutely useless for Day 1. Plenty of people came to the same conclusion on Prom without his help (I wasn't even aware of his case when I made mine) and he is more than willing to toot his own horn for it. Killing off the pardoner as well would only give him 2x the town cred. There are a few other little things, like his disinterest in being mayor I find curious. He said essentially he'd only run for mayor if he could lynch a veteran, really strange thing to say. The fact that there are no bodyguards I now understand to be only relevant for scum because a well playing townie is a target regardless of whether they are elected or not. That kind of immediate survival instinct rubs me the wrong way. On March 01 2013 10:33 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Toades hasn't? (crediting himself solely while discrediting the people who are helping push and pressure prom, interesting) RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT After the bus the next brilliant bit of analysis (grush although he provides absolutely no reasoning for it) is that we should shoot a random vet just cause mafia probably has a vet on their team. Also the way he jumped all over MilkSuckler at the beginning of the thread is laughable. Look how he left the Prom lynch completely alone. He started it and everyone else did all the work pressuring Prom and Prom never responded to it. The really scummy thing that Prom did happened many many hours after Toades original accusation (I hesitate to call it a case simply by formatting). In it, Prom avoids attacking Toades or any of his accusers instead pointing a random finger at JJ before signing out. On March 01 2013 10:37 DoctorHelvetica wrote: notice also toades is not willing to give me ve or layabout an ounce of credit for the lynch, calling us sheep and patting himself on the back (read his filter) then after the flip he gives us some credit, that's a bit odd also why would in his mind that confirm any of us? has he never heard of a bus before or is he trying to deliberately avoid that kind of thinking altogether On March 01 2013 10:39 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I more or less agreed with this sentiment from the beginning of the game but it's actually quite curious. As town, if you're playing very well you're just as much of a target whether you're mayor or not. From a scum perspective, the extra attention from mayor is unhelpful and it might be hard to explain why you survive multiple nights as the mayor. The bodyguards mean no protection from night investigations or vigilante hits. This is a minor + for Toades leaning scum, but on its own it isn't enough to really classify him as scum. what better way to push his lynch and pardoner plan then to run for mayor anyway? nothings really adding up for me here On March 01 2013 11:38 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Look at Toades initial attack on MilkSuckler. It was of course complete bullshit and he later rescinded his vote but he immediately jumped on MilkSuckler for saying he wouldn't lynch a vet Day 1, an opinion that plenty of people have and is a very common stance that any TL Mafia player would pick up on. He jumps on him for "sheeping", an easy Day 1 vote for a highly aggressive player. For someone who played so aggressively in the first few hours of the game, it makes no sense for him to disappear from the rest of Day 1 and stop putting pressure on everybody despite the fact that he was present. He was clearly just waiting for the Prom flip to confirm him, he has more posts talking about how Prom would eventually confirm him scum rather than speculating on who else might be scum or trying to nail anybody else. Wasted his time. The fact that he didn't even consider the fact that it could have been a bus is odd. Toades is logical. If he was town, of course he would credit himself but why would this confirm me or layabout or visceraeyes? If Toadesstern really thinks mafia would never attack their own player or let them be lynched then he is sorely mistaken and I can't honestly believe he would ignore the possibility so starkly unless he was deliberately trying to avoid bringing it up. On March 01 2013 11:42 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Not your posts but I did think that through (I'm leaving in a minute), he admitted that he considered the plan pregame and determined it was bad but felt it was important enough to discuss at length anyway. He ignores it for the rest of the game until the last few hours then pushes for it. It is a pro-town idea in theory but it would just be another reason for him to credit himself as the best townie of all time, I don't think it's consequential at all. But if I personally decided a plan of mine was shitty (and I've had several) I wouldn't even bring it up, it would be a less productive discussion that talking about who I think is scum and I can't believe that Toades would just stop at Prom. No one else did, but he calls them the sheep? Heh. On March 01 2013 11:46 DoctorHelvetica wrote: This logical leap should make it clear Toad before lynch - Layabout/VE don't get any town cred for supporting the Prom lynch because they just sheeped me Toad after lynch - Layabout/VE/DrH are all confirmed town because they supported the Prom lynch | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On March 01 2013 12:57 jcarlsoniv wrote: Ok...I think I'm following. I'm not disagreeing with ridding of Chez. What I'm disagreeing with is the thought process that if Chez flips green, that automatically makes grush red. It makes him look worse, sure. But it is just as likely that grush could be green and trying to jump on the opportunity to rid of Chez thinking he's scum. Hypothetical: Wouldn't a scum dayvig know that Chez is green, and shooting him would reveal that? This makes it seem, in my mind at least, that grush is town just knowing that he wouldn't out himself as a vig if he were scum. ...I think my train of thought it followable You're right, it could be a 2 town dayvig situation but I don't think we can pass on that kind of split. Also grush is someone that many vocal people are convinced is scum anyway, so it's not like it would be based on that alone. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On March 01 2013 13:15 MilkSuckler wrote: Im over this.. im starting to think grush was just trolling Geript. i will have a look through what you wrote later on.. im not sure why your pushing the point though.. Toad has enough evidence on him to justify a consolidated vote So i am not sure what you are trying to prove. The more pressure the better. If Toadesstern is town he should be able to clearly demonstrate his logic. The main issue is that he used the entirety of Day 1 to credit himself for the Prom lynch and cast doubt on everyone else who agreed with him. Why would any townie do this? I have played with Toadesstern and he isn't that arrogant. Even Ace isn't that arrogant. I pushed Prom immediately after going through his filter. I then used the rest of the day to pressure other players (to try and get an idea of the rest of the scumteam), improve town discussion, clarify my own thinking, i.e. goals and behaviors any town player should strive to achieve. Although I'm not perfect, I made an honest effort to remain productive. "Oh yeah I nailed scum in 2 hours bitch lol everyone on skype says I'm town" is the opposite of productive and it comes across as an effort to avoid talking about anything else. If you can catch scum that brilliantly in 2 hours surely you can contribute something else by the end of the day. Give me a break, there's no town intentions in that whole filter. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On March 01 2013 13:17 geript wrote: No, I'd have to look back on the timing of when he brought that up for it to matter. It could possibly be true but not enough on that. I'm saying that when I made the second big push to put prom in the pardoner role, because VE was leading and looking to win it, following my prom pardoner push is scummy because it was an attempt to force VE to be restrained. It's similar to a safety play in bridge. I will admit that this doesn't look great for me (as I made the follow up push), but its something to think about. By methodology maybe but if I were town and VE said he might lynch me I'd do whatever I could to make sure that doesn't happen. But I would do that by trying to approach him with logic and convince him I'm not town or convince everyone to elect somebody else mayor. | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On March 01 2013 13:29 grush57 wrote: just make sure you don't change your stance when he makes up an afk excuse he wasn't afk though he was posting plenty | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On March 01 2013 13:44 randombum wrote: I agree with the Dr.H's argument on toad. Additionally, he hasn't fixed reason why I didn't like him before he's still not doing much. Originally I thought he was just playing it cool to not die N1, and would unveil more about grush/scum on day 2, but so far nothing that I can see that benefits town. Why would you hit ve who proved himself malleable and willing to lynch the guy that got your teammate killed instead of the guy who caught scum in 2 hours and never once considered any other options | ||
DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
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