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On February 27 2013 22:46 Oatsmaster wrote:
Huh,
Who is scum Acro?
What do you mean we have bigger fish to fry?
Im thinking Hapa is my strongest with Alderan close behind.
I don't plan on catching the scumteam all in one go. For instance, I think Hapa looks terrible, but Hapa and Keir together doesn't make all that much sense (although a bus vote is possible, I'd have to look closer at vote timings).
If Adam flips scum, it makes Thrawn look absolutely terrible, if not, then I feel Thrawn has somewhat redeemed himself from the terrible start, and on top of that, if Keir flips scum, then I don't think Thrawn is scum.
Sylencia's utter refusal to give out any reads at all makes him scum unless Adam flips scum.
You see where I'm going with this?
Individually my reads would be Sylencia and Hapa as front runners for scum-currently-not-dueling. I am not satisfied at all with Hapa's behaviour around the lynch. I think my opinion on Sylencia is clear. He has not given a SINGLE scumread yet in the entire game. I don't agree with Cora that he should have changed his meta, because it's not nearly as easy as that. However, in NMM37 he had a read: Warbaby. He may have been completely wrong, but at least he had a read and he kept analyzing it. At mylo he actually became a bit more active and gave out some other reads. This game: 0 scumreads.
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Time for some math:
On February 27 2013 22:36 HiroPro wrote:Duel 1 Vote Count Adam4167 (4): yamato77, Sylencia, cDgCorazon, Dienosore Keirathi (2): thrawn2112, Hapahauli 7 votes needed to lynch. If a majority is not reached in 18 hours by 07:40 GMT (+00:00), both duelists will die.
I added gonzaw and Vivax's filters in the "Important Posts" spoiler.
Add Zarepath to the Keirathi side of things, he claims he's just not voting because he doesn't want a lynch before all due diligence is done.
Double Lynch (3): Acro, Iamp, Oats
No vote: Alderan, Snarfs
Alderan: you have not taken a stance at all, except to fight VERY hard against a double lynch. Why are you so vague about who you think is scum?
Snarfs: your conclusion seems to be that Keirathi needs to die. Why is your vote not where your mouth is?
Regardless, the temporary conclusion is that a double lynch is going to happen. To prevent that you're going to have to convince a minimum of 2 people:
people on the other candidate that they are voting the wrong way.
people voting for a double lynch that the other candidate is town.
Get to it. I'm happy with the outcome as it is right now. Lets see what this discussion brings us!
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Okay, Iamp, lets have a little chat about Dieno.
My gut is still telling me that Dieno is a town lynchbait. I have a hard time placing a scum motive in anything he has said. His thought process seems transparent.
But Acro, his reads make no sense. They didn't make sense in CT either. He started with a scumread on Djodref and GK for exceedingly strange reasons
+ Show Spoiler [CT, with dino pic!] +On November 21 2012 17:34 Dienosore wrote:In an effort to gain your trust so that I can become the first leader, I have two solid scum reads that I feel need to be shared. Djodref: Supports sandroba, though he (weakly) nominated himself. Wants Clarity and Lamp on his team. Has asked a few times to different people what their reads are. Maybe mining for info? Said "I don't think it would be fair for the scum team not being able to kill the party members" Also, put out a hit on a town marv and town Hapa for being dangerous to the mafia. I'd say 80% sure he is scum goodkarma: Seems to be in favor of Sandroba for pres, even though he nominated himself for it. wants sandroba and promethelax on his team. Put emphasis on finding townies, not scummies, which could mean he is scum. Asked questions that feel as if they come from mafia perspective (dealing with towny death and kill immunity). Attacks back at Keirathi after he explains that we dont know HOW the scum kills by saying "scum must be able to remove it somehow" Uses distancing language "town" when talking about possible medics. I'm 70% sure he is scum. Seems to be town hunting. ![[image loading]](http://i49.tinypic.com/20zd73t.png)
I even asked him if he was a BillMurray smurf at the time. As for the post you quoted, he explicitly stated Oats was on his watch-list. I don't mind him pointing out that he found that post scummy without following up, because focus is on Keir and Adam at the moment.
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On February 28 2013 00:41 Snarfs wrote:
Acro, I think you making guesses at who's 3rd party when we don't have evidence of a third party is not smart.
Then explain to me the town motivation for knowing what you did is anti-town:
On February 26 2013 21:49 Adam4167 wrote:
LOL YEP, that quote looks quite bad.
I really wish I was scum, it'd make post-game far more bearable.
Yet being completely and utterly willing to do it again:
On February 26 2013 21:15 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2013 19:23 Acrofales wrote:
Adam: if you're town, you're a selfish douche who is not playing in town's best interest. I will reevaluate you, but I really feel like policy lynching you for playing like this. I will now fight my instincts, because I don't think policy lyncing idiots is a good idea, but that's the way I feel right now. Well, I am town and you can call me whatever names you please, I give not a shit. I cant even promise that this wont happen again if I survive this cycle. <snip>
Given the rest of his play, I cannot reconcile a scum mindset. Given this play I cannot reconcile a town mindset. That leaves 3P with a wincon requiring him to win X duels, participate in X duels or something. This wincon would also explain how he got all triggerhappy and jumped in before Thrawn could: he needs to get those duels done.
Is it a bulletproof case? No. He could be a townie being a stupid, egotistical, twat. However, I have no evidence from any previous games ever that Adam is a stupid, egotistical, twat (and I've played in like 4 games with him). So I'll go with something that is consistent of what I know about Adam, the player: he has some funky wincon we don't know about that will force him to disrupt this town again and again.
Anyway, answer me this: what exactly would you need as "evidence" of a 3rd party? In a game where scum numbers are unknown, scum kp is unknown and the presence of 3P is explicitly made possible in the town wincon?
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On February 28 2013 00:53 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2013 00:50 Oatsmaster wrote:
Wait, Cora so what do you think about Adam saying that he would do it again?
Do you think that scum would EVER say that???
He has stated, in no uncertain terms, that he KNOWS it was horribly anti-town. Why would a townie EVER say that?
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On February 28 2013 00:58 Snarfs wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2013 00:54 Acrofales wrote:On February 28 2013 00:41 Snarfs wrote:
Acro, I think you making guesses at who's 3rd party when we don't have evidence of a third party is not smart. Then explain to me the town motivation for knowing what you did is anti-town: On February 26 2013 21:49 Adam4167 wrote:
LOL YEP, that quote looks quite bad.
I really wish I was scum, it'd make post-game far more bearable.
Yet being completely and utterly willing to do it again: On February 26 2013 21:15 Adam4167 wrote:On February 26 2013 19:23 Acrofales wrote:
Adam: if you're town, you're a selfish douche who is not playing in town's best interest. I will reevaluate you, but I really feel like policy lynching you for playing like this. I will now fight my instincts, because I don't think policy lyncing idiots is a good idea, but that's the way I feel right now. Well, I am town and you can call me whatever names you please, I give not a shit. I cant even promise that this wont happen again if I survive this cycle. <snip> Given the rest of his play, I cannot reconcile a scum mindset. Given this play I cannot reconcile a town mindset. That leaves 3P with a wincon requiring him to win X duels, participate in X duels or something. This wincon would also explain how he got all triggerhappy and jumped in before Thrawn could: he needs to get those duels done. Is it a bulletproof case? No. He could be a townie being a stupid, egotistical, twat. However, I have no evidence from any previous games ever that Adam is a stupid, egotistical, twat (and I've played in like 4 games with him). So I'll go with something that is consistent of what I know about Adam, the player: he has some funky wincon we don't know about that will force him to disrupt this town again and again. Anyway, answer me this: what exactly would you need as "evidence" of a 3rd party? In a game where scum numbers are unknown, scum kp is unknown and the presence of 3P is explicitly made possible in the town wincon? I would take more than one kill at night as a starting point.
Why? I don't think he's an SK. I think he has a duel-related wincon. You want 3P that has no KP? See Marv in PU, see me in CT, see any game ever that has a survivor.
All these games had 3P with more-or-less anti-town wincons, yet no extra KP. Why are you excluding their presence here?
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On February 28 2013 01:05 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2013 00:59 Acrofales wrote:On February 28 2013 00:53 zarepath wrote:On February 28 2013 00:50 Oatsmaster wrote:
Wait, Cora so what do you think about Adam saying that he would do it again?
Do you think that scum would EVER say that??? He has stated, in no uncertain terms, that he KNOWS it was horribly anti-town. Why would a townie EVER say that? A townie would say that, scum wouldn't.
A townie would say "What I did was anti-town, but I will do it again without hesitation"?
Anyway, this seems to imply you have a town read on Adam, yet are completely happy lynching him and are just waiting to hammer whoever is hammerable. Explain your town read on Keirathi, or die next cycle.
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On February 28 2013 01:10 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2013 00:59 Acrofales wrote:On February 28 2013 00:53 zarepath wrote:On February 28 2013 00:50 Oatsmaster wrote:
Wait, Cora so what do you think about Adam saying that he would do it again?
Do you think that scum would EVER say that??? He has stated, in no uncertain terms, that he KNOWS it was horribly anti-town. Why would a townie EVER say that? I can't find that statement anywhere... I found a statement where he suggests people will give him a hard time post-game.
Which means he knows he did something wrong, doesn't it? Now what did he do wrong? Well, that's in the post he quotes (quoted by me, and I quoted it from CT):
I find scum rarely do this, as they would rather just pounce on the person without actually giving them a chance to explain their behaviour, just in case the person has a reason for what they're doing, then the scum has to go find someone else to fabricate a case on. This is fake-able as scum, yes, but giving people a chance to explain themselves makes your job much harder.
This means he knows it was wrong. AKA anti-town.
And yet, he is unrepentant and warns that he will do it again.
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On February 28 2013 01:16 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2013 01:07 Acrofales wrote:On February 28 2013 01:05 Alderan wrote:On February 28 2013 00:59 Acrofales wrote:On February 28 2013 00:53 zarepath wrote:On February 28 2013 00:50 Oatsmaster wrote:
Wait, Cora so what do you think about Adam saying that he would do it again?
Do you think that scum would EVER say that??? He has stated, in no uncertain terms, that he KNOWS it was horribly anti-town. Why would a townie EVER say that? A townie would say that, scum wouldn't. A townie would say "What I did was anti-town, but I will do it again without hesitation"? Anyway, this seems to imply you have a town read on Adam, yet are completely happy lynching him and are just waiting to hammer whoever is hammerable. Explain your town read on Keirathi, or die next cycle. I don't know who you think you are taking on the leader of the town position, because your play thus far has been so anti town it's ridiculous.
First off, I believe he's entirely too disinterested to be playing scum. It's always been my experience that scum early game are usually deliberate, you don't see a lot of afk time from when they are under pressure because it's easy enough to get your scum mates to write a couple responses you can just throw up. Just wreaks of a townie that's given up. On the other hand he has offered absolutely nothing in the way of analysis, which is exactly why I said I would rather Adam live. It's not a complicated situation, I have townish reads on both, thus don't want both to die, if I had to chose it'd be Keirathi. The fact that we can't even choose who we want to kill because you've muddied up the waters so much with the fucking double lynch talk is absolutely asinine.
(bolded part)
Dafuq? I want some of what you are smoking, man! Have you played on TL in the last year or so? Like... seriously? What kind of deluded idea do you have of how mafia play? Examples of mafia not playing anything like what you're saying:
- Sevryn in NMM 37
- Entire team in Fruity
- Adam in Hero Mini
- The entire mafia team except austinmcc in Chrono Trigger
I could continue this list with about a hundred more examples. Keirathi is scum. He got caught, and a mix of not enough time, and despair at having to prove his townieness against people who know him rather well has made him throw the towel in the ring.
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On February 28 2013 01:21 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2013 01:19 Acrofales wrote:On February 28 2013 01:10 zarepath wrote:On February 28 2013 00:59 Acrofales wrote:On February 28 2013 00:53 zarepath wrote:On February 28 2013 00:50 Oatsmaster wrote:
Wait, Cora so what do you think about Adam saying that he would do it again?
Do you think that scum would EVER say that??? He has stated, in no uncertain terms, that he KNOWS it was horribly anti-town. Why would a townie EVER say that? I can't find that statement anywhere... I found a statement where he suggests people will give him a hard time post-game. Which means he knows he did something wrong, doesn't it? Now what did he do wrong? Well, that's in the post he quotes (quoted by me, and I quoted it from CT):
I find scum rarely do this, as they would rather just pounce on the person without actually giving them a chance to explain their behaviour, just in case the person has a reason for what they're doing, then the scum has to go find someone else to fabricate a case on. This is fake-able as scum, yes, but giving people a chance to explain themselves makes your job much harder.
This means he knows it was wrong. AKA anti-town. And yet, he is unrepentant and warns that he will do it again. So Acrofales you believe Keirathi is town then?
If I thought that why the fuck would I want to double-lynch?!
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On February 28 2013 01:38 zarepath wrote:
Acro, you ARE INSANE. Why do you believe both to be scum??? One of them DUELED the other when somebody else was already WILLING to. Why in the world would scum duel each other day 1?
Double-lynching when one of the people dueled the other of his own volition is idiotic in this game. Anyone who is either not voting or is voting specifically for a double-lynch need to realize that they are relying completely on mafia being utterly retarded and not playing to their win condition in any way.
Oh, dafuq. What is it with you people and your lack of reading comprehension
Adam is an evil 3P who cares jack shit about the wellbeing of this town
Keirathi is evil scum who needs to die
Both must die. I will duel the next person who asks for my reads on adam and keir, because I hereby declare a policy lynch on people not reading the thread.
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On February 28 2013 01:38 Oatsmaster wrote:
Acro, is your only reasoning that Adam is a 3rd party cause he said that he would just duel when he feels like it?
Or do you have another reason.
If you're bluefishing, you missed.
My reasons are quite clear. His playstyle makes no sense as either alignment. He must therefore be neither. Him saying he'd duel whenever he felt like it is anti-town because he KNOWS it is anti-town yet is saying so anyway. If he had some strange argument for why it was not anti-town at all in his mind and he thought he had done nothing wrong, then /shrug. However, he clearly doesn't feel that way. He has admitted that he did something wrong, yet will do it again, with no remorse
A smaller tell that falls into place is how he was all okay with thrawn dueling Keirathi, but before that could happen, jumped in and dueled himself. Sure, it fits with his earlier statement, but Adam knows town wants discussion time. However, if he wants to be the one to duel, he must do it before anybody else does.[/b] He just got itchy fingers and blew his load, because he was afraid that with both thrawn and Keir active, the duel could happen at any moment there.
It's not even that he was going to bed and wanted to ensure the lynch: he was around for many hours afterwards.
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On February 28 2013 01:49 zarepath wrote:
Adam MAY be an evil 3P, and that's based on speculation. I'm not entirely against mentioning the possibility, but potentially mislynching two townies Day 1, the day we have the least amount of information, BASED on the possibility of a third party when the OP doesn't even mention any specific third party roles, is idiotic.
Do you know what's even more idiotic? Complaining about how awful Adam's early duel was, how much info/work it lost for town, etc., and then declaring a policy duel against anybody who asks you for your reads. That makes you just as anti-town as Adam if you were to fulfill that -- that would be two days in a row that town is robbed of deciding, together, who needs to be up for lynch. You think town can survive that? That's a HORRIBLE policy, and it's honestly just as bad as your horrible double-lynch.
Nowhere do I say I will duel them the second I can.
Anyway, you know how townies can avoid getting policy lynched? By doing what townies should do and reading the thread. You realize that not reading the thread is a sign you are not trying to figure the game out? Guess who isn't trying to figure the game out? Yeah, that's right! Scum
I had said about 5 times that I thought Adam was 3P, yet you didn't read it. Are you sure you're town?
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On February 28 2013 01:54 Oatsmaster wrote:
Yeah ok your only reason is that he would do it again.
What if I told you that maybe he was joking, that he didnt mean it?
Do you know how suspicious that looks? He couldve just acted all apologetic but no, he didnt. What does this mean? That he is a stupid townie probably.
Haha, look, I'm laughing:
On February 27 2013 12:29 Adam4167 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2013 12:24 Acrofales wrote:On February 27 2013 12:20 Adam4167 wrote:On February 27 2013 12:18 Acrofales wrote:On February 27 2013 12:03 Adam4167 wrote:On February 27 2013 11:57 Dienosore wrote:On February 27 2013 11:45 thrawn2112 wrote:
dienosoe let's walk though that summary of kei's play
Here are your main points about keir, taken from that bottom paragraph:
"Other than a bit of back and forth banter mostly discussing dueling policy, he has kept a relatively low profile"
"The only real aggression shown has been directed towards a scummy looking Thrawn"
"Overall, I'd say he has been playing it overly safe, if anything."
Those things are not suspicious? wtf
They are only suspect because of how boring and mundane they are. It either means he is scum trying to blend in or is just a low impact towny. Right now, because of my read on Adam and the assumption that scum wont duel themselves so early in the game, I'm left with the conclusion that Keir is town. So by your logic, a scum Adam, that was under zero pressure, not in danger of being lynched at all, decides to call a duel on a semi-lurker and put himself up for a lynch as a result? When my alternative, as scum, would have been to sit back and let everyone else go at it and stay out of the limelight. Think about why I am doing this and what my alternatives were. There's only one smart answer and a stack of dumb ones. I've said it a dozen times now. I'll ask again: are you 3rd party? No. Then why can you not promise you won't pull such a stunt again? On February 26 2013 21:15 Adam4167 wrote:On February 26 2013 19:23 Acrofales wrote:
Adam: if you're town, you're a selfish douche who is not playing in town's best interest. I will reevaluate you, but I really feel like policy lynching you for playing like this. I will now fight my instincts, because I don't think policy lyncing idiots is a good idea, but that's the way I feel right now. Well, I am town and you can call me whatever names you please, I give not a shit. I cant even promise that this wont happen again if I survive this cycle. <snip> You have owned up to it being an anti-town move already. If you know that, why are you not able to promise you won't do it again? Because I don't have faith in the 'lets force two other people to duel' policy. Are we really going to go through all this again?
But more importantly, if that's what you think, why are you double-lynching?
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On February 28 2013 01:58 Oatsmaster wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2013 01:44 Acrofales wrote:Oh, dafuq. What is it with you people and your lack of reading comprehensionAdam is an evil 3P who cares jack shit about the wellbeing of this town
Keirathi is evil scum who needs to die Both must die. I will duel the next person who asks for my reads on adam and keir, because I hereby declare a policy lynch on people not reading the thread. Acro, if adam is an evil 3P who doesnt care about town, why did he duel scum and not scummy looking town? Its not like he didnt have plenty of options
Scumslip? How do you know Keir is scum and not scummy looking town?
Anyway, here are some reasons to want to aim at scum:
1. 3P doesn't know who is town and who is scum. Lynching someone who looks like scum covers them either way. The duel has to be believable not completely backfire and get the dueler lynched.
2. 3P survivor types just want the game to end asap (best chance of surviving). Extra wincons may require them to delay the end of the game, but lets not speculate too much about that, and just assume). There are two ways ending the game asap: landslide scum victory and landslide town victory. Most survivors are like observers: rooting for town until town derps so much that they are unsympathetic. So why NOT duel your scumread?
3. SURVIVOR. SURVIVOR. SURVIVOR. He cannot afford to be lynched himself (nor shot at night, but in this case lynch is clearly the biggest threat). Guess what gets Adam lynched? Prematurely dueling the crap out of a townie.
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On February 28 2013 02:33 Oatsmaster wrote:
So is Adam 3P or not?
Im confused, you say he isnt stupid, which means he wouldnt have openly claimed 3P if he was actually 3P right?
And he isnt scum, so THEREFORE HE IS TOWN. Now go lynch Keirathi.
Why would he openly claim 3P? Do you know how often claimed 3P get lynched? Almost all the time. Just look at Bastard 2: we could have lynched scum and won the game, yet we were afraid of being wrong, did the math and lynched the third party just to be absolutely sure the scum wasn't fooling around as a 3P.
Look, I'm not 100% sure Adam is 3P, but it is by far the best explanation I can think of for the way he's playing.
Adam is not stupid or egotistical when town (or as scum, btw). So what could possibly make him act in a stupid, egotistical manner? Some wincon that requires that.
And if Adam has, for some reason, decided to act like a stupid, egotistical, twat as town, I have absolutely no qualms lynching him for that either. Townies put what they believe is best for town first. Adam is not doing that. His initial reaction was "I dueled to stroke my ego" and every explanation of his behaviour has confirmed that he knows he was not helping town with that action. So yeah. Take from that what you will.
I'll believe Adam is inherently not a stupid egotistical twat and his wincon is compelling him to act that way, but that's just me seeing the good in people 
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@Hapa: read my filter, it's all there.
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On February 28 2013 03:20 zarepath wrote:
Acro, you're not being persuasive of your argument, you're being defensive. If you really want the double-lynch you need to persuade us, not tell people "eh, go read my filter."
No I don't. We're cruising for a double lynch. I don't need to persuade anybody at the moment.
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And honestly, I don't know why you want me to repeat my argument over and over and over. It only fills the thread with me rehashing stuff I've already said. If you are truly interested in figuring out whether a double-lynch is a good idea, you would have read my filter... and I am happy to answer any further questions you have that aren't in my filter already. If I can't convince you, then well... I tried my best. I don't feel like beating you guys into submission over it.
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On February 28 2013 03:44 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2013 03:40 iamperfection wrote:On February 28 2013 03:38 Alderan wrote:
God this is setting up so perfectly for scum to push double lynch. They're able to do what Thrawn did and just switch at any time, or do what Dieno is doing and say,"welll..... I don't really know, nor do I plan on contributing so Im gonna put a vote on the one with the least and hope for the best."
And they are in a win win situation.
Two town deaths: "Oh well they played so bad, blame them, fucking noobs"
One town, One scum: "SEE, SEE WE TOLD YOU, WE'RE ALL TOWN"
I just don't see any evidence that someone can have as vanilla townie that suggest either are scum. Useless? Of course. Scum? I just don't see it. maybe if you have something you want to say you should just say it. who is the scum then? Why so defensive bro? We have plenty of time for that, I'm not giving anyone any fodder to take this thread off track. The issue at hand is selecting this lynch, and in my opinion making sure it doesn't go to a double.
All you seem to care about is that we don't lynch 2 people. I have not seen you make ANY attempt to figure out which one is the better lynch. In fact, your conclusion after you made the post that implied you thought Adam was town, was to say "but no way am I lynching, I want to hammer whoever I can".
Honestly, if they're both town, YOU look far worse than even thrawn.
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EPT
