EPTThis Town Ain't Big Enough Mafia - Page 2
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
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Sylencia
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On February 28 2013 23:52 Oatsmaster wrote: Wall of text :D So is Cora your only scum read? Sorry, didn't see the post sandwiched between mine. I did have a suspicion on zare reading his filter but after I found the final vote count I might still have to mull it over tonight to make sense of his post-lynch posts. I called you out last night for what I thought was being hypocritical, and I haven't perused your filter since then so that's still up in the air too but I'm honestly falling asleep at my desk at the moment. | ||
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Sylencia
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On March 01 2013 00:48 Alderan wrote: @Syl, so under no circumstance would you initiate a duel with Dieno? I would much prefer it with Corazon, but I'm not going to put a random duel out there if everyone doesn't agree on it. If Deino remained missing without an explanation until now I would've considered him a lot more but he's here now, and my wanting to duel him has increased since he's made this gem of a statement: On March 01 2013 02:29 Dienosore wrote: As for me dueling Syl, I would totally be OK with that. He has looked scummy to me for a while now. No explanation, this is the first time he's ever mentioned me in a post, and he gives no reinforcement to his claim. At least everyone else has done something to show that I am potentially scummy but Dieno just sheeps onto that thought and is now riding it. | ||
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Sylencia
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On March 01 2013 07:34 Hapahauli wrote: @ Syl "My vote was too scummy for me to be scum" isn't a very good defense. What's very suspicious about your vote (and Dieno's) is how early you were on Adam, and how "clean" your play has been so far. You haven't done anything to stick your neck out - you just stick to one straight story and "blend in" while pursuing mafia objectives (lynching Adam). Sure isn't a good defense, but do explain how you can say with that I'm pursuing mafia objectives by trying to lynch someone we don't know the alignment of because they haven't flipped? I haven't made excuses for voting Adam, trying to make myself look any better because of a scum flip, because that would just be me lying to you all. I haven't had any regrets having my vote on Adam because he seemed like the worse player at the time, even though that's shown to be wrong. | ||
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Sylencia
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On March 01 2013 09:07 Dienosore wrote: This town obviously isn't big enough for both of us, Sylencia. ##Duel: Sylencia That is one of the worst reasons I have seen anyone give for anything ever. Me warming up to the idea suggests I was still hours off wanting to duel you over Corazon with valid reason to switch, and yet you decide to pull the trigger prematurely for what? Considering at this point in time you hadn't made a case against me whatsoever other than your 'seems suspicious' vague argument. On March 01 2013 10:18 Dienosore wrote: Case on Sylencia Here we start with this awesome post: Speaking of bad first posts, he openly suggests blues come forward at the start of the game. Then he says reluctance to reveal yourself should be met with suspicion. Why would a towny ever want to expose blues, especially so early? I can understand if it is later in the game and there are lots of zany roles to protect people with, but this set-up so far seems to be pretty straight forward and simple. Here he promises reads then doesn't deliver Then there is his vote on Adam: Here he says Adam isn't scum, then he actually has the balls to vote to kill him anyway. He also manages to weakly align himself with Keir (who flipped scum, btw). But wait... what's this?: Now it's not ok to kill a towny, even if he's bad? This whole post goes directly against his vote on adam. Why you so flip-floppy, Syl? He finally makes some real reads once Adam is dead, maybe because he is being pressured for looking scummy. Whatever, standard play. What is interesting is this little blip: He admits to having scum traits? Why would a towny ever say something like that? And the whole message is pretty much, "I want to duel Corazon because he is tunneling me". Maybe I'm wrong about this, but shouldn't you want to duel because you think someone is scum, not because they hurt your feelings? There are a few other smaller things that add up after a while, but I think I've got the main points up there. 1. I'm making extreme cases, nowhere does it say 'hey blues - come out day 1 because then you can freely duel!' If you read that point at all it was in regards to policy Hapa was suggesting. That way we don't have trigger happy players deciding to duel at a random point in time only for their opponent to say 'Dude, I was X role and Y was scum'. You get 1 scum at the cost of 1 blue and 1 townie, best trade ever. 2. I weakly suggest that I think both are town and Adam was the better choice because of his unpredictability. Nothing in Keir's filter screamed outright scum so naturally he was a null read but there were bits of potential town play in there hence why he was leaning slightly towards town. 3. You take posts out of context here regarding the post going against Oats at that point. 4. What, you're expecting me to say 'nono, Corazon is wrong, my play is completely town - look at the style in which I lurked because I wasn't around it screams town!' ... With the desire to duel Cora, did you not understand the point I was making against him or do you not understand how I was accusing him of being scummy there? Your case against me is extremely weak Deino. On March 01 2013 10:49 Dienosore wrote: I was suspicious ever since his first post asking blues to come out. He wasn't in my top scumreads until I saw how he kind of fumbled around after the first duel. Now after digging into his filter and actually writing down my case, I'm pretty convinced. And you conveniently never mentioned anything about having a read on me beforehand? Decided not to call me out when you say you saw my original post? You've only become completely suspicious of me after dueling me and then reading my filter? So that means you hadn't actually made a case against me before deciding to just jump into a duel. I don't about you, but I like to have facts laid out before full on accusing the opponent of being scum and trying to kill them at that spot. But you've got it the wrong way around, which means you were really only dueling me at that time because it's better that you're vsing someone who is about as suspicious as you as opposed to someone like Acrofales who you know you'd lose a duel against him? There was a lot of talk about that in the hours leading up the duel, and it honestly looks like you cracked under the pressure of having to duel a stronger townie than yourself. On February 27 2013 15:03 cDgCorazon wrote: If you guys sit here and lynch Dieno off, you get very little about my alignment (only the fact that I'm not voting for Dieno), and we would sit here and ask questions about me and Syl for another day and basically waste a Day (unless of course Dieno comes back as scum). If you guys lynch Sylencia, you guys get his flip and get information about both his and my alignment from the flip. It seems like a no-brainer to me. And you get no information about Deino, who at this point is looking about 10x the scum you are looking at the moment. If you were truly wanting to get the most information you wouldn't have even suggested doing a single lynch, but doing the double lynch because otherwise it still takes 2-3 days to fully get all the information out there. Yet somehow you're trying to defend Deino from dying for some reason by proposing the single lynch on myself. On March 01 2013 12:33 Dienosore wrote: @hapa(/thrawn): I read thrawns post and addressed his points. Here ya go: My main motivation was the fact that he wanted to duel me. I was a little offended that he would jump at me so early in the game, so naturally I snapped back at him. Then some time passed and some stuff happened. Marv vouched for Adam, etc. I stayed suspicious up until the flip, and now I'm pretty sure Adam is not a scumdog. I just don't see mafia dueling each other day 1. Unless of course it was all a genius plan to do the unthinkable and get town cred... but probably not. It wasn't obvious to me at all. Up until Keir flipped, I never really felt strongly that he was mafia. Maybe some of you other guys have more experience with Keir to have been able to make a meta read based on his lazy play, but I didn't. Lesson learned, though.. 1. Why would your main purpose behind a duel be because of OMGUS? That's not how duels go, you duel when you find something particularly scummy and then you can say you want a duel. Your duel on day 2 goes to show that you're not truly interested if they're scum or not seeing as how you make the most generic comments before trying to confirm their alignment. 2. You say that you didn't find Keir to be that scummy until he flipped and it's ok. I say that I didn't find Keir that scummy and you're using it as a case against me. Double standards? Ok. On March 01 2013 18:08 Dienosore wrote: Idleness and sketchy plays the entire game slowly build up to scumball status. Here's one for you: Idleness and sketchy duel and arguments quickly build up to scumball status. On March 01 2013 20:28 Dienosore wrote: Gotta be joking me. I wait for everyone to slip up so I can better hunt catch and kill mafia, especially early on in the game when everyone is still suspect. Do you not do similar gut checks about your reads, also? Normally I would agree with you, but in my mind, marv did more than just some simple setup discussion. He told us in easy abc 1-2-3 steps how to win the game. How do you expect 1) for everyone to slip up - there's only a small number of scum. 2) to know who the scum are if you're never aiming to kill one first and then you can get reads on the rest of your suspects and hope they can slip then? That'd sure be an idealistic world if you're going to say "Well, if W, X, Y and Z are the only ones I see slip - that must mean they're scum'. Some of you are asking for my top scum reads. Cora I've already written about, but I finally get to filter dive Oats to see if he's still as scummy as I saw him during mid D1, and then onto a few others. | ||
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Sylencia
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- His filter shows little effort from him in finding out the scum, but instead he relies a lot on everyone else by asking them questions repeatedly. - He had made the single move which was essentially what I did but 24 hours later. He gave his reasoning for it, but at the time I didn't really like it. On February 28 2013 20:06 Oatsmaster wrote: His 'oats is scum' read on me is basically a summary of my filter, and it doesnt look like he really wants to find out who is scum. Not saying this question is scummy, I just want clarification - but if your general filter literally contains just questions the majority of the time, is that not a valid point to raise as being potentially scum? There's content in short bursts with regards to reads and whatnot from then on until the duel begins, I don't find anything too out of the ordinary overall, the only thing I really would comment about it is just being able to get away with not revealing too much about his thoughts on the game until Day 2. While I was hoping to find more, I'm finding myself having to back down from Oats for now. In fact the more I read, the less sure I am. It's seriously hard for me to pin down anyone for doing anything because there's always something that goes back against the post. The only other person I'm worried about is zare because he has flown under the radar this entire game - he's provided his thoughts a few times, but his latest reads don't give any explanation behind them, it's just an echo of what everyone else has suspected. There are a few association cases I would make too, but I would prefer not to have to rely on them because it's complete speculation unless their associated one flips. | ||
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Sylencia
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On March 01 2013 21:31 Acrofales wrote: I very much disagree. Look at NMM 34, where he was scum. He was making cases. Not pushing them, but can you honestly say he was pushing anything in NMM 37? To me, his town and his scumplay look exactly the same: a lurker who drops by once a day to make a case and then buggers off again. The only difference in the two seems to be that as scum he is slightly more active. However, with a sample size of 1,there's no guarantee that that is the case, it might just have been the game, or its timing. Difference was the timing - I was on Christmas break during the time I was scum, and I'm currently working full time. | ||
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Sylencia
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On March 02 2013 13:24 cDgCorazon wrote: I'm still sad that we did not double lynch. I really think we should've ended the Syl saga right there and then. There is nothing in his filter that says town to me. Refuting a weak argument is not a town action. This all just screams of a purposely weak bus in order to give Syl some free town cred and give him a blank slate. I think Thrawn has the right idea in still putting the pressure on Syl. However, Dieno has bought you some time Syl. Here is your chance to prove that you deserve the town cred Dieno has given you. Come up with some strong reads and perhaps my read on you can change. The ball is in your court in deciding whether we want to get past this or if you're going to distract us and drag us down again. On March 02 2013 13:32 cDgCorazon wrote: Because we chose the Syl/Dieno lynch even before Kei's flip. It's quite possible that they had to choose one to take the fall and try to keep the other one alive. Syl would be the better choice to bus Dieno than the other way around because I was the main one attacking Syl and my standing within the town has been shaky. If Syl is scummy too why in the world did you not lynch them both? You guys are sitting here talking about how scummy Syl is when we just had his lynch on a silver platter and you guys said no. It's almost like you are all teasing me now... Either say Syl is scum and lynch him or tell me he's town. Not wanting to lynch your scum reads is scummy in itself. Honestly, if anything it is you who has been distracting town time and time again by bringing up useless posts about me. You haven't done anything to town other than your ramblings day in and day out about how scummy I am - you're completely ignoring the rest of town in order to try push a lynch on me and the only time I've seen in the filter beyond this point you mentioning anything about anyone else is when they ask you about Yamato vs Acro.\ You asked this question to me in NMM37, so how about I ask you the same question: Who are your scum reads and why - excluding myself. Assuming there are 2 left, there should be at least 2 other people who are scummy, right? If you're going to argue about how I'm definitely scum and therefore shouldn't have to have 2 other reads - don't complain when I made a case on Sevryn (and was still looking at Warbaby) and you voted for me anyways. On March 02 2013 14:27 cDgCorazon wrote: God I'm sick of Seriously. This quote covers you perfectly, and your future quote about if I flip town it shows 'you won't stand for crappy town play' yet you've ignored every other lurker / low contributor such as Snarfs is hilarious. As for the developments that happened overnight - is there a reason not to at least trust what thrawn said to do last night? As much as Cora would love for me to be dueling today, and I for him to have him dueling - is it not time for at least 2 others to be dueling to get more information there too? If we have the same people dueling day after day, we're limiting the information that we can get during the day and thus when it comes to late game and the limited number of people who have duel are all dead you're left with nothing to go off. | ||
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Sylencia
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On March 04 2013 23:52 cDgCorazon wrote: Alright, well I've come to my decision. It was a tough one, so I decided to take a look at all of the veteran TLers who have flipped VT this game and see their thoughts: And the survey says... ##Vote: Hapa Also I cannot see any possible ways that Hapa's actions could be town-oriented. I could see Yamato's play being town a lot easier (still hard though) than Hapa's play. I don't have much to add to today's duel - the only point I can really add is that while you're using other opinions to decide your vote, can you really value marv's judgment as equal as others? He says it in his post himself - 'could be a bad start', seeing as how he was in the game for 24 hours where some people hadn't talked yet. Personally, I find Hapa's defense posts in day 3, his read on yamato during day 2 and yamato's duel-while-everyone-is-afk to really add up to a compelling argument for me to vote yam. On the other hand, considering day 1 and day 2 have resulted in a mafia lynching I don't see why yamato is actually just openly claiming that a lynch on him is ok to get more info. After reading the case on Hapa, I also find it to be rather weak - primarily the day 2 case on Hapa. The only compelling thing for me is the disappearance of Hapa during the later stages of that duel but I think the quotes provided don't make for a strong scum case against him. I'm going to be sleeping on this, but I don't honestly expect to be coming up with many miracle answers to this problem and in advance I'm going to apologize (primarily to Cora here) for being such a useless townie. On a side note, if we want to maximize our chances of winning, one of the next duels should result in a double lynch. (Town chooses kill today, Night Kill, Town, Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Town) gives us 6 kills to choose from and 3 controlled by scum. This is different to Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Night, Town, Town where we get 5 kills and they still get 3. tl;dr sometime during this duel or the next 2 duels, we have an extra spare lynch. This is assuming no vig/protection/thingswhichstop1NK. | ||
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Sylencia
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On March 05 2013 00:29 cDgCorazon wrote: It's never too late to redeem yourself Syl. Who do you think is the last (hypothetical) scum assuming that Yamato and Hapa aren't bussing each other? Zare has a high chance at the moment no matter who gets chosen, but after thinking through it during the night it's quite possible that Yamato and Hapa are both town, which means there could still be another scum. If that's the case, the other thing I'm a bit suspicious about are how clear pro-town players who are providing a lot of insight in comparison to others didn't get killed instead of the ones who are dead. While thrawn was also an active player, his reads were definitely a lot more off in comparison to Acro/Adam. | ||
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On March 05 2013 16:58 yamato77 wrote: I have been thinking about this very problem and I have come up with a list of people we force into duels after this to find the remaining mafia, because everyone else is PROBABLY town at this point. Right now we are at 8 - 2 town to mafia, assuming no third parties and 4 starting mafia. Assuming we NEVER double lynch, and mafia's shot always goes through (as it has been), this is how the game plays out. Hapa flips town 6 - 2 tomorrow. Hapa flips mafia 7 -1 tomorrow. Zare - Alderan should be the duel tomorrow, no questions asked, either way Hapa flips. Hopefully one of them proves to be town, if Hapa is mafia. If he's town, both of them have a good shot at being mafia together, honestly. Regardless, best case scenario is the game is over, all mafia dead. Worst case scenario is 4 - 2 mylo after this, with 5 -1 being the MOST LIKELY scenario, as having zero mafia out of the group of Hapa/Zare/Alderan seems highly unlikely. Cora - Acro should be after that. If it's MYLO, or there's new analysis from a mafia flip, this might change, but it is how I would play it out today. If two of those three flip town and the other looks really town, it means a player we've been ignoring for a while is likely mafia, so my bet is one of these two, seeing as neither would have been involved in any duels at this point and been under serious pressure. If we're at 5 - 1, the worst case scenario is 3 -1 the following day, and this duel likely gives us a serious look into the alignment of both of these players. At that point, it would highly depend on who is still alive, and who is not. Hard to call. You and I SHOULD be dead by then. Most likely 3 -1 MYLO is Snarfs/Sylencia/Oats/Cora, IMO, but you never know.At any rate, 3 - 1 MYLO should be a no lynch, easy to enforce by policy lynching anyone who calls for a duel, as it only helps mafia and hurts town. 2 - 1 LYLO is a coinflip, but by then town should have enough info to pick out who is most likely mafia. 4 - 2 MYLO could also be a no lynch, but I feel like 3 - 2 LYLO is easier to lose, and 4 - 2 MYLO is easier to hit mafia than the 3 - 1 / 2 - 1 counterparts, so I would take my chances with Cora/Acro. Oats/Snarfs both highly green to me, so that is how I made this assumption. Sylencia/You also unlikely to be mafia, but it's a LYLO possibility that one of you might be mafia and used the duel mechanic to clear your name. I already outlined a plan that gives us the highest chance of winning this, assuming we don't mess up at 4-2. At 4-2, a double lynch killing 1 mafia leaves us at 2-1. At 2-1, scum can't call a duel anymore so it becomes a lot easier on us to win the game by having the last person double lynch the two. 66%+ chance of winning the game there. 4-2 situation also doesn't allow for No lynches, because no lynch = double lynch anyways :\ As for the current duel, I'm willing to follow Yamato's plan for today (for now). Zare - Alderan tomorrow for the duel (most likely killing zare), and then we can decide on it further from then. Thus, if no one has objections I will vote Hapa in about 90 minutes. | ||
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Zare vs X is the most appropriate duel for today. PS: On March 06 2013 04:02 zarepath wrote: Syl didn't have a case or a reason on Hapa, but a super long listy post about general lynch strategy. At the end of it he says he'll vote Hapa in 90 minutes, which doesn't happen. The vote from Adam already happened as I came back to vote ~100 minutes after my previous post. After the hammer fell it was quiet time until mod came, so there wasn't exactly much to say about that. | ||
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Sylencia
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GG and wp by town, Cora I agree and will be taking a break for a bit from Mafia until I can find more energy to post after work. The last couple of weeks have been draining and all I want to do is sleep lol. | ||
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