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On January 28 2013 10:30 yamato77 wrote:Going back and looking at the game, finding people who didn't vote Thrawn, I saw this post: Show nested quote +On January 28 2013 07:34 Sharrant wrote:
Well, for starters, Thrawn is not a scum read. I'm not sure how you got that, he's pretty much entirely null to me. Too much absence to get even a minor read on.
EmileZola is like a vortex for my sanity. Another big lurker (though slightly more active) and he's mainly just sort of trolled along. I think it's fairly safe to treat him like he's not MrZentor, which makes me wonder why the wagon that was beginning to form on him fizzled out and hasn't come back after the revelation. He agrees with one of my reads though, I'm not sure to take that as a mark against my read, or a mark for him being townie, I need to hear more from him.
Djodref is still null for me, and JieXian is pretty much my wildcard scum read. If it doesn't end up being Prom/VE/EmileZola I would expect JieXian to be in the team. When I see a player give out this many null/potentially scum reads in one post, my scumdar goes off. He's basically listed half the game here and left himself open to voting for them in the future, super scummy behavior. To top it off, he's refusing to give a read on Thrawn despite the evidence given by others. This reads hugely noncommittal. He doesn't take a strong stance even on one of the players he considers to be part of his hypothetical scum team, he just waffles and says "I need to hear more from him." He's also amazingly fluffy throughout his filter. I'd be up for lynching him tomorrow.
I hope you realize that this post was in response to someone asking me for more reads than what I had already given. The reason I had not stated these before that is because they aren't sure things in my mind, just like Promethelax has moved more towards townie in the last while, but I'll be rereading everything a few times soon.
Now, Yamato, I've seen your name in a lot of games, you should be able to reason this out fairly quickly. All of the scum were on Thrawn's wagon. Without a doubt in the world. You just have to look at how they arrived on there to find which are scum. Why am I saying this with such certainty? Because no doubt when Thrawn made his little "I haven't died, I'll still play eventually" post, he told his partners in the scum QT that there wasn't a chance he would make it back for the lynch. Even if he didn't they could see for a mile away that he was the one getting lynched. Right now just based off that I think VE is most likely to flip scum from his actual joining of the bandwagon.
I'll have a big post closer to the deadline with some actual reads, until then it will just be small posts.
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On January 28 2013 10:55 yamato77 wrote:
I suppose that makes sense, but I wouldn't absolve people that didn't vote for thrawn completely just because of that logic.
I don't like your reason for not wanting to kill him after the evidence was on the table. People that were resistant to the idea of him being mafia, especially early on, should be scrutinized.
What evidence are you referring to, might I ask?
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On January 28 2013 11:05 yamato77 wrote:
People posted evidence of his meta, etc.
It was there. I'm not going to bother digging it up.
I knew that he lurked when he was mafia, but the difference is how much he lurked this game. As scum he averages about 2 pages worth of filter in a day, whereas when playing town his average is more along the lines of 4-6, that's something I knew coming into this game. In all of day 1 he had 3 posts, one of them a joke. That's not lurking, that's just being gone.
Don't get me wrong, I'm very glad we flipped him and he flipped scum, but were I a betting man I'd wager that in the post game we'll hear that he was too busy to play.
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Okay, here are my reads and a bit of a case.
Yamato
I'd say he's confirmed town, if he's still around at LyLo then we could have an issue but that's it.
IamPerfection
First townread of the game, pretty much confirmed. Posts don't feel constructed, and he's not giving off an air of discomfort, so even without his spot as conductor of the thrawn wagon he's got major townie points. The only thing that worries me is how sure he was that it was scum play from Thrawn, it's a niggling doubt but if Thrawn knew he wouldn't be around he might've told them to go for a very early bus. Until LyLo he should be treated as confirmed town.
Djodref
I can't see him being anything other than the vigi at this point, again, he's anotherperson to treat as confirmed town unless we start getting SK kills, or the game doesn't end after the scum's death, but that'd be such a risky play for an SK to make, there's just no payoff.
EmileZola
I did not like his early game at all, but he's been very townie lately to make up for it. Being a hydra makes a lot of sense, and seems to almost confirm him green.
Promethelax
Not my strongest read ever, but I'm fairly certain he's town. His recent posts have been pretty solid.
Vivax
Right out of the gates I had him as a strong townread with IamPerfection, but that's dropped off a little.
Ghost_403
I'm reasonably certain he's town. His thoughts have almost been bang on to what mine have been, I'm hesitant to put him as town until I hear his current thoughts on Hapahauli and Promethelax.
JieXian
Unsure about him, but other people are reading him as town, so that's a point for him above xsksc
xsksc
Unsure about him either, almost has to be scum by process of elimination if Hapahauli wasn't in the game still.
Hapahauli
There's not much to say about Hapa without trying to mindgame the hosts. Scummy/null.
VisceraEyes
I'm not going to make connection cases before his flip, but if there were ever a time to do that, I think it would be now.
The first thing that set me off was this post.
On January 26 2013 17:35 VisceraEyes wrote:Okay so far I think iamp is the scummiest. Earlier he asked me if I was serious about my accusation of thrawn. Looking back I noticed this in his filter. Show nested quote +On January 26 2013 09:47 iamperfection wrote:On January 26 2013 09:22 Promethelax wrote:On January 26 2013 09:18 Vivax wrote:
That's good news! Marv is on town's side! Too quick to believe marv. Miller in c9++ is in 40% of games. Look at the bugs/palmar argument in YAN. There is a good reason for scum to claim miller too. ##Vote: Vivax was this a serious vote because if it is very weak Vivax been very posty after having an avenue to not be with his pre game post. I want to know if you actually think vivax is mafia when you get back. Show nested quote +On January 26 2013 11:20 iamperfection wrote:
your vote on vivax serious prom? In this post he appears to be suspicious of prom for his vote on Vivax. What strikes me however is that if he's suspicious of Prom, he's basically telling Prom how to answer to make himself less suspicious. Why would he do this as a townie? As scum I can see reason for him to coach Prom through to the correct response regardless of Prom's alignment, but why would iamp do that as town? Especially given his response to my calling him out: Show nested quote +On January 26 2013 11:28 iamperfection wrote:On January 26 2013 11:25 VisceraEyes wrote:
iamp do you have any opinions on what's going on or do you plan to uselessly ask people if "they're serious" all game? Well if i told you how i think he would answer with regards to his alignment it would kind of defeat the purpose. It would kind of at that. ##Vote: iamperfection
At this point I already had a huge townread on IamPerfection but VisceraEyes is trying to make him look scummy, and he is the only scum read he mentions all day. The closest he comes to another person being scummy, is saying he could lynch EmileZola because he's a troll and that he's okay with a policy lynch on Thrawn. (He does soft defend Hapa as well, but that's for after the flip)
On January 27 2013 01:44 VisceraEyes wrote:
I can do a thrawn vote too...consolidation-style.
Then the Thrawn bandwagon starts picking up steam, and suddenly VE can't even be bothered to mention people he thinks are scummy. He's entirely focused on how the wagon must be scum, but doesn't actually comment on who on the wagon might be scum.
On January 28 2013 03:06 VisceraEyes wrote:
I'm still okay with the thrawn lynch, aside from the relative lack of opposition. No one seems to care if thrawn dies, which is never indicative of a good lynch. But this is minor, and it's still kinda early.
On January 28 2013 03:19 VisceraEyes wrote:
Everyone does....that doesn't give you pause at all?
Two posts not even 15 minutes apart, both giving the most meek defense I've ever seen. It's like he's trying to get the bandwagon off of Thrawn without his name being involved at all.
On January 28 2013 03:24 VisceraEyes wrote:
Because if there's no resistance that means that scum are okay with the lynch. Who are scum okay with lynching? Townies.
Like I said, it's early enough that it's not really that much of a concern, but I wanted to put that out there for anyone paying attention to that kind of thing. No one has spoken up in defense of thrawn yet - at least not that I've seen. This is something that should be considered.
"Hey, guys, third post about the Thrawn lynch being bad in 20 minutes. Boy, it sure is crazy how no one is defending him right? Right, guys? He's obviously townie."
On January 28 2013 03:26 VisceraEyes wrote:
I'm not gonna sit here and argue with you. If you really wanna push this failwagon be my guest.
"I'm not going to argue, but it's a bad lynch"
On January 28 2013 03:28 VisceraEyes wrote:
I'm not softdefending thrawn. I'm saying I don't like that there's no resistance to the wagon. I've said (multiple times) that I'm okay with a thrawn lynch. So whatever, keep trying to inject scumminess into my play however you wish yamato. It doesn't make me scum.
"I'm not soft defending Thrawn, I'm just saying this is a bad lynch for the fifth time in 20 minutes (Seriously, from 3:06 to 3:28 he posted 5 times about how Thrawn is most likely town). He's obviously town, you can tell by the lack of people resisting the wagon, but I'm okay with a thrawn lynch."
Pardon? You just spent 5 posts in a row saying he was town, the wagon is being lead by your ONLY SCUMREAD, and you are "okay" with the lynch?
On January 28 2013 03:40 VisceraEyes wrote:
Well, there are now three votes on VE. You do the math Sharrant.
I'm pulling a thrawn. I've got a birthday party to go to, so I won't be back tonight. Figure it out guys.
"I don't even care enough to mention someone you should be voting before I leave."
On January 28 2013 03:48 VisceraEyes wrote:
Nono...I'll throw my weight behind thrawn.
##Unvote
##Vote: thrawn
"Oh, right, let me just hop on this wagon first."
How is that not deserving of an instant lynch since Thrawn flipped red? I don't want him vigged, I want him lynched. I want there to be as much discussion about this as possible.
So, quick recap here.
His ONLY SCUMREAD throughout all 48 hours of day 1 is a person that I think most people had easily meta-ed as town. He does no scum hunting beyond this, opting for two policy lynches. And then when one of them happens to be on scum, he defends him in 5 posts in 22 minutes and then says "I wasn't soft defending him". Then hops onto the wagon anyways.
If someone can rationalize this from a town perspective I would love to hear it, but all I see is VisceraEyes claiming scum, and everyone just looking elsewhere.
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On January 29 2013 07:40 VisceraEyes wrote:
And the "failwagon" was in response to Yamato who was pushing me as a lynch target, I was not referring to the thrawn lynch.
Ah, my apologies on that one, I didn't realize. The rest still stands.
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Hey, guys, reading the thread now. Will make posts shortlyish.
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On January 30 2013 10:09 Vivax wrote:
I'm going to repeat it nicely:
SHARRANT SAID HE DOESNT WANT TO TALK ABOUT VE'S CONNECTIONS BEFORE HIS FLIP.
BUT HE STILL TALKED ABOUT HIM.
THEN VE FLIPPED GREEN. TOWN NO KNOW WHO FLIP NEXT. SHARRANT DID.
btw I'm not angry, just want to make it clear for you.
Let's nip this in the bud.
I was talking about lynching him. I thought my case was pretty good, and there was a fair amount of suspicion on him from other people as well. So I was planning on going after him on day 2. The reason I mentioned not making connection cases is because I felt if VE flipped scum that Hapa would be pretty surely scum, I withheld that because it would be stupid making pre flip connection cases, and it turned out it was smart to withhold it because VE flipped town during the night.
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On January 30 2013 10:17 Djodref wrote:
@ Sharrant
What about Prome and EZ saying that they were going to lynch me if I had shot VE ?
And the fact the only few people wanted to shoot VE ? Tell me who do you think could have followed you on a VE lynch ?
Well, you had VE as a scum read going into N1, Ghost had VE as a scum game since the beginning of the game (for those of you wondering, my town read on Ghost came because his entrance into the thread matched by thoughts throughout the whole game word for word). Half of EZ had VE as scum earlier as well.
So I figured with a strong case (and I think it was a pretty good case, even if it turned out to be wrong) that it would push it to the point where a VE lynch would be viable unless he started playing better.
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On January 30 2013 10:31 Djodref wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 10:25 Sharrant wrote:On January 30 2013 10:17 Djodref wrote:
@ Sharrant
What about Prome and EZ saying that they were going to lynch me if I had shot VE ?
And the fact the only few people wanted to shoot VE ? Tell me who do you think could have followed you on a VE lynch ? Well, you had VE as a scum read going into N1, Ghost had VE as a scum game since the beginning of the game (for those of you wondering, my town read on Ghost came because his entrance into the thread matched by thoughts throughout the whole game word for word). Half of EZ had VE as scum earlier as well. So I figured with a strong case (and I think it was a pretty good case, even if it turned out to be wrong) that it would push it to the point where a VE lynch would be viable unless he started playing better. Ok, fair enough. Who would you lynch today ? Wich players do you have as possible scum and why ?
Off the top of my head JieXian, EZ, Prom, and Jay are the only people I could see as being scum at this point. xsksc's posting style gave him townie points early with me, and seeing the green check makes me even more sure. Everyone not on the list read townie to me.
I'm going to spend more time going through filters right now, I'll still try and respond to any questions that come up while I'm reading and writing though.
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This is taking forever, I keep being pretty convinced of one thing, and then finding holes in it. JX+Hapa/Jay seemed like a strong case to me (I would lynch JX first) but the recent vote from Jay on JX gives me pause for the moment.
I'll write more on this shortly but it needs more filter diving, the other big thing I noticed does not.
Promethelax and EZ also strike me as a possible scum team. This one is much less likely, but this post is what put it into my head big time.
On January 29 2013 08:54 Promethelax wrote:
Because he was the strongest town player in the game? I'd have shot him as scum too.
Sorry ghost. Still love you even though I thought you was scum.
So with these night kills djo is pretty unlikely to be the SK but if he is sk we'll need to lynch him. Ah we'll, saving him until Lylo and/or a night with too many kills.
Going to read over the night, wish VE had added more and that ghost hadn't just attacked me.
Imp: I am opposed to a xscsk lynch.
After talking about his respect for Bugs' play in the pregame, and after the reveal of SS/WBG being a hydra he mentions how VE was the strongest town player.
Why did this bug me so much?
SS/WBG being a hydra was very recent in the thread, it still should have been on his mind at this point. He had EZ as a town read (he mentions this shortly after when he also says he didn't think it through). It makes me think that he and EZ are scum together, and that was a big slip. There's certainly some faults to it, he was very agressive about finding out who EZ was, but also says that he knew it was at least SS playing because he learned it from the hosts earlier in the pregame. (I'm not sure about this, but it strikes me that if one person in the game was told by the hosts it should have been knowledge to everyone) so that makes me think that they might both be scum and that's how he knew.
Again, this next point is a bit waffley, but this is based on a pretty weird slip so I really have to look at it both ways. EZ was not killed last night, even though he was revealed to be two veteran players. Instead they took the opportunity to kill VE, even over pretty much confirmed town Yamato and Iamp AND Djo. That makes me think that whoever killed him must have held him in high regard (which promethelax does, and I'm sure EZ does as well). Now, on the other hand, it's just plain strange to me that none of the really confirmed people were shot (except for Djo, because the scum have to have a healthy skepticism as to whether he is town or bullet proof SK). But for scum to shoot VE who did have a fair bit of suspicion on him, over one of the almost confirmed town really says that it was someone who respected his play.
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Jay, I'm really disliking your play. You had me as a full blown scum read earlier. Then you started pussyfooting around it, saying JX was scummier. Then you moved me to solely "lurking". I understand that IamPerfection having a town read on me while you have a town read on him is going to change your view of me, but please show some of these scummy things. Your posts right now are looking like they're just there to look like you're doing something.
You're pushing two lurkers right now, I do think JX has about a 50% chance to flip scum, probably even a little higher than that. And I can tell you that I am town, so you better get another read in there. Hell, imagine I've already flipped and come up green, who are your two scum reads?
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On January 30 2013 14:10 jaybrundage wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 13:29 Sharrant wrote:
Jay, I'm really disliking your play. You had me as a full blown scum read earlier. Then you started pussyfooting around it, saying JX was scummier. Then you moved me to solely "lurking". I understand that IamPerfection having a town read on me while you have a town read on him is going to change your view of me, but please show some of these scummy things. Your posts right now are looking like they're just there to look like you're doing something.
You're pushing two lurkers right now, I do think JX has about a 50% chance to flip scum, probably even a little higher than that. And I can tell you that I am town, so you better get another read in there. Hell, imagine I've already flipped and come up green, who are your two scum reads? I think you both are scummy. However the one that is scummier and should be lynched today is the part that im having trouble with. I find nothing wrong with reevaluating my reads based on what i read in in the filter or based off other peoples opinion's In the end I will consolidate on the wagon I think is mostly likely to flip scum. In the event that you flip green then on to lynch JX. I dont feel comfortable lynching anyone else. Out of the claimed roles we have Lamp-Townie xsksc-green checked Prom-Null EZ-Null JX-Scummy Sharrant-Scummy If Sharrant and JX dont flip red then i would move on to my null reads while constantly changed my reads based on there posts.
I want a read. You can give me a single read, and that's perfectly fine. I just want a read, on anyone. I would love for you to give me reads on myself, JX, and Prom. That'd be fantastic. What I don't want is another list or fluff post from you.
@Everyone
Is this normal for Jay? He seems to really be avoiding saying anything, and is just resorting to list posts to fill in the gaps. I asked him to show me something scummy, and he just posted the same list again but slightly larger.
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@WBG I don't find him scummy for thinking JX is scum, I'm not sure how you got that. I find him scummy for posting lists and just going "scum" and not seeming to do any leg work.
@SS
I'm not particularly convinced on that one, it was just something I thought was interesting enough to bring up. I'm not interested in lynching either of you today, don't get me wrong there. I think there's better targets like JieXian and Jay unless he starts posting reads instead of lists. If you and Prome are scum together then I believe it will show as we get closer to the end game, so it's not a theory I'm willing to test yet.
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I'll be here until lynch time.
I find Jay much scummier than JX (list posts, never backing up a read, lots of empty posts), but I find it more comforting that there's two really strong town reads ofmine on the JX wagon.
Jay and JX both fit the mould when looking at players who would make sense as one of Thrawn's teammates. Jay/Hapa not being around to defend or push other reads. JX because he hopped onto Thrawn a few hours before he made the post, but he seemed quite sure of Thrawn being scum for weird reasons (I don't think it would be crazy for Thrawn to let JX know that he would be mostly AFK for Day 1 a while before making the post to give him a decent headstart on the wagon). That said I might be being paranoid, his early vote on the wagon is pretty townie, even if his reasons were not.
##vote JayBrundage
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On January 31 2013 05:55 Promethelax wrote:
okay, so Supes can you explain your mass claim plan? what you were hoping to gain from it and why you haven't followed up on it.
I'm also interested in this. I was thinking we had enough people confirmed or mostly confirmed that it would really narrow the search down, but I'm no expert on the set up.
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Ugh, should've made this all one big post. IamP, what do you think of Jay right now?
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You're sure about this EZ?
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Good, we have the same thinking.
I'm Vanilla townie.
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On January 31 2013 06:33 EmileZola wrote:So you voted jay. Who do you think is Jays scumbuddy?
It's killing me right now, I'm honestly not sure. It almost seems like it'd have to be someone that's in the almost confirmed category.
I could see xsksc being his scum buddy, that one makes a fair bit of sense to me. Hapa's scum game becomes fairly obvious by late game, so I don't think he'd take GF for that reason. It would make sense as to why the check on him came back green.
JX could be, but I feel it's quite unlikely. There's the possibility that they've been forced into a position where they have to bus each other, which I guess the more I think about it is fairly likely. It would seem like a fairly weak scum team for a town of this calibre though.
If Jay is scum I don't think it's possible that Vivax is, makes 0 sense, even though I disagree with a lot of his reads. It's possible he is if Jay is town though.
There's a few really unrealistic options that I'm holding back for now because at this point they'd just make things worse.
And if you're his scummy buddy then you're safe until end game pretty much regardless, but I think it would show fairly obviously then so I'm not worried about that yet.
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EPT
