TL Mafia LIX - Page 9

On January 24 2013 05:16 gonzaw wrote:
austin, now that you are here.
What do you think of the "cases" against me from Oats/Five/wbg/debears?

You thought I was pretty townie on D1 and posted a bunch of reasons, do the stuff those guys pointed out change your read or not?

I may have skipped it in your filter but you barely mention me I believe

On January 24 2013 10:09 Oatsmaster wrote:
The reason why I put the 'shy' bullshit, was that I completely forgot why I defended JX.

Also, I think that its not very accurate to use a meta read on me because I have only played 4 games,
It was accurate and damning for Prp because he has played over 20 IIRC.

Vivax, please stop shitting up the thread.

With gonzaw my read has been fluctuating.

Apart from the read on him, gonzaw as mafia would fill the missing hole of a serious mafia mayoral candidate on Day 1. His prplhz attitude has been nagging at me in particular.

gonzaw/Oatsmaster is where I'm struggling right now. I had been giving gonzaw vague townie points for a couple of reasons: he spread his suspicion around quite a bit, which he tends to more as town, and he's far more tunnelly as mafia. For a prime example of this - Liar Game - where he tunnelled Cephiro over multiple cycles to the detriment of anything else. This is mitigated, as bugs notes, by the fact that he hasn't really pushed *hard* at anyone. The second reason, and the one you can see why I'm struggling, is his suspicions of Oatsmaster, which I share.

Anyway, gonzaw. His prplhz stuff looks bad, although to be fair he's not the only one. The problem with gonzaw is that he should really know better.

I didn't like the bolded at all, casually suggesting he wouldn't have ran for mayor as mafia. I absolutely believe gonzaw would run for mayor as mafia, so this looks quite bad to me.

gonzaw, you haven't been as much a central figure as I expected you to be this game. Is there a reason for this?

This is quite simply the worst advice I have ever heard.

On January 24 2013 20:54 FiveTouch wrote:


You've done nothing all game except kinda push gonzaw.

You even forgot that you wanted to lynch Stutters, and you never mentioned him again after voting austin because he wanted to kill Stutters, even though Stutters for a long time did the lurking you were calling him scum for.

On January 24 2013 16:16 yamato77 wrote:

This post of Oats, along with other things like his willingness to give out reads, his overall activity level, and his fairly unnecessary (if mafia) case on Gonzaw, makes me believe that he is town.

The fact that he's continued to pursue his read on Gonzaw today is quite telling to me. When he posted the case at night, I believed he would have done so with the idea that it was cheap town cred to do something like this at night when there was no lynch on the line. However, today I see that he's fairly invested in the idea that Gonzaw is mafia, something that I feel a lot of people are at the moment.

Basically, if you think Gonzaw is mafia, Oats is far likelier to be town.

Plus, I agree with WBG's logic regarding the BGs, and not lynching them at the moment. Unless you are absolutely certain Oats is mafia, I do not feel like it is worth it to lynch him today. That's my thought on that situation. I think he might be town, and I'm not sold on lynching him yet even if others believe otherwise because he, if town, is valuable protection for our elected roles.

On to my updated mafia reads:

If I take seriously the idea that Oats is town, I have to consider the possibility that Debears is not. Debears' only contribution is a case on Oats, which is quite weak. Mafia debears would want Oats lynched, because that would mean that mafia gets to shoot into both Toad and FT tonight, or at any point in the future. While this would instantly out his as confirmed mafia, I'm not sure how confident I am with the idea that mafia wouldn't trade one of their own for our two elected roles, especially the mayor. Plus, people would be content to sit on the idea of town debears until the mayor/sheriff gets shot, which is quite useful. It's basically lynch immunity.



This post, and many like it, show that debears is fairly preoccupied with the idea of Bodyguards and their potential protection powers. When I was mafia, and I was attempting to bluesnipe, one of the quickest tells you can pick up on is who seems preoccupied with blues in general, or a specific role such as doctor. Debears may have already has the idea in his head on Day 1 to make this sort of play as mafia, to sub himself in as a BG and use this "unlynchable" status to his advantage.

Aside from this, debears has been fairly inactive, and hasn't pursued his scum reads very strongly. He posted a case on Gonzaw (that had him as slight scum, rofl), and then backed off of it later. He has a "case" on Oats, but he earlier posted this:



So we know he doesn't want to lynch Oats. Who does he want to lynch? Annul. Why?








He gives zero reason. He just calls him "scummy". I don't like this sort of thing at all. The speed at which he voted for annul also to me indicates that this is a mafia vote, because he did it early in the day and with zero prior mention of annul. These four posts are the only ones he even mentions annul in at all, and they've all been in day 2. Very weird to me.

In that last post he also says he'd be willing to lynch BKE, but he's never mentioned him before either, and indeed doesn't even bother to provide a reason. So what about prphlz? He supported that lynch day 1, right?



That's his only mention about his own read on prplhz. All of this I believe is indicative of a blendy mafia mindset, something I find pervasive throughout his filter. Not many of his reads seem original to him at all. His low activity suggests not wanting to be in the spotlight. I don't believe he's actively playing the game in a way I think town debears would, because town debears is characteristically more convinced of his own reads, a la Hero Mini where he was hyper aggressive day 1 in pursuing his target.

Now, for the same reason WBG gave for not lynching Oats, I don't think we should lynch Debears either. But if I had to pick a mafia out of the two BG's, I would actually pick debears. Oats is greener to me.

So, who else do I think is mafia, and which of them do I want to lynch today?

Vivax could still be mafia. While a lot of the vets have previously had him as town, even they are less certain of this idea than they were before. However, if he is mafia I don't think he's going to get any better and we will have more information to lynch him with at a later date. Unless he continues to be completely anti-town for the rest of today, I don't think he's a particularly good lynch, and I don't think many other people do either.

Annul might be mafia, as he's played similar to Vivax today, but I actually feel less confident about lynching him because of how easy it is for everyone to call him town. There's literally been zero resistance to lynching him today aside from other people giving out their own mafia reads and trying to get them lynched. I don't think a single person has called him even somewhat town, though I may be wrong because I've only skimmed the last ten pages. I don't like lynching him today.

Gonzaw is an interesting idea.



He has a few of these types of posts in his filter, where he softdefends a player (often Vivax actually) and generally gives weak reads. I don't feel like he's taken many strong stances with his reads this game. Even his opposition of the prplhz lynch was fairly weak.



Also, he has a few of these posts in his filter, where he seems particularly preoccupied with his own image, and how town perceives the things he's doing. As I just finished typing in my analysis of another mafia player in NMM XXXIII. preoccupation with town's perception is a mafia tell, as they are more likely to care about how they are perceived than town.



He even goes so far as to defend his spammy nature, something that I, as town, feel completely unmotivated to justify. While this is indicative of how I feel on the matter, that I just post what I think at the time I think it, I do not feel the need to justify this mindset. However, Gonzaw obviously does, which again leads me to believe that he is concerned with his image. This idea is also reinforced with the concept that running for mayor and being active on D1 are two easy ways to get people to have cheap town reads on you.

While this is not a strong mafia tell, it is what I have managed to find in his filter after a short bit of diving. I am fairly confident in the possibility of him being mafia for these reasons, along with those that the rest of town has posted. I will resume my filter dive of him tomorrow, and either confirm my own bias or perhaps see something that might change my mind.