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also a maybe minor point that could be confirmation bias, so I want your take on that one but I considered it odd:
Here's our pm's, read all of them starting with the one nested the most (it's not much):
+ Show Spoiler +Original Message From AxleGreaser: Yes I am a Townie, I have no powers i quoted the OP, where it says Townie. TownieYou may just be a normal player but you are the backbone of the town. Your goal is to help bring the Mafia to justice. You get no special powers but the ability to vote during day. Blue Roles may look pretty but the real power lies with you! Show nested quote +Original Message From Toadesstern: I want to know your ROLE not your alignment, unless you're claiming VT. Original Message From AxleGreaser: That is plausible.... so far I like that. Ok I was going to demand to know where your probable information came from... but that would be one step too far. I am .... Townie Original Message From Toadesstern: I don't want you to claim in the thread... Why would you want to claim in the thread. I want to confirm my knowledge and for that I need you to claim to me and I don't want everyone else knowing it... Original Message From AxleGreaser: Original Message From Toadesstern:
Hey there I masoned you. If you have skype you can give me your skype info and we talk in skype instead of pms.
Anyways I have an important question for you: I need you to claim to me. Right now. No arguing, do it.
You might get lynched if you don't and I can confirm whether you're telling the truth so go ahead. No I don't have skype. I am probably quite happy to claim in the thread instead... it does not seem to have got anyone else killed. being killed is not the problem catching scum is. Why do you need me to claim to you? If you already know I am town, then I wont be lying. If you already know I am scum, then why ask.
I don't know, but I consider the phrase Yes I am a Townie, I have no powers i quoted the OP, where it says Townie
Really odd. Yeah I asked him again to be sure on this one but it feels like to much emphasize on quoting the OP. Why quoting the OP to begin with, why not your pm? Yeah I know... no quoting role-pm's and stuff but come on, when you roleclaim you copy & paste your role from your rolepm and not from the OP... unless it's different because in that case it really could be considered quoting the phrasing of your pm.
But it really does sound like "see? I did not make a mistake! Totally says so in the OP!" to me.
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On January 29 2013 22:32 Oatsmaster wrote:
Fuck me, I really cant read Axle's posting,
Toad mind quoting where you think axle is soft-claiming medic?
The Pm you quoted I think is probably the nail though.
basicly every single post he did?
A little summary:
D2, after Sandro died:
+ Show Spoiler +I thought i had worked out the vet strategy on protects via Bugs post... to stop them ovelapping by centering the Doc and the Sherrif protects on diff people. The one thing I knew and I thought scum knew was Sand was getting protected. Having said that do you think the doc if there is one might be more likely than random to take your advice.
If so is putting the Sherrif just where the doc had been told to go was suboptimal Yeah?
Toad seems to think you were the best protect but gave the stupidest advice to the thread Huh? Sorry did you indicate what youd be doing at all?
I expect you did not.
In the absence of information how can doc try and dodge doubling up with you better than chance?
Well if they do the one thing some suggested you should not that would be better than nothing. Absolutely, we should NOT discuss who we are protecting tonight Last night that didn't work out at all well.
However Bugs DID
Then Toad Conveniently did what was maximally bad and most likely to result in Sherrif and a Doc if there is one protecting the same person. If you consider Bugs important enough to protect because he is good at this game.
Then wouldn't some doc somewhere think so too.
if the docs going to protect someone why would the Doc do the opposite to you and protect Sandro?
Yes you should not telegraph your moves to scum.
But putting your Sherrif's jail keep in the one place most likely a Doc will as well is silly.
But you can divide the protect-able pile in two a bit and try not to screw up by protecting the most likely person the doc if there is one would protect.
screw this... I don't feel like searching for more stuff, that's just 3 posts and his posts are so hard to read... some stuff I quoted in mason chat:
+ Show Spoiler [no idea from where] +and yeah by then i was so tunneled that Bugs had the plan and the rest was fluff suggestions that I thought I understood the game, then some how it didn't happen. Well it didn't happen because you said in the thread it would not happen.
Well more precisely you said, you wouldn't say what you were doing and that Docs had to cover the whole field too.
And yeah in bold by the guy with the role, said that so that trumps all.
And yeah it does not matter that if with docs and jailers you are better off statistically splitting the puddles to get fewer protection collisions, the guy with the role said he would....
So Derp me
read THIS post. It's what made me almost go "okay screw this, I'm not going to mason axle, there's no way he's not the medic"
However axle said he's willing to lynch gonzaw before the red check when bugs asked him about. Have to reread that one to understand the situation.
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I just got spammed away by you guys and I think it's rather important:
On January 29 2013 21:29 Toadesstern wrote:Also if Axle isn't the medic his "medic-like"-posts sound a lot like mafia because he's thinking about medics so much. Remember:- He was FURIOUS about me jailing bugs instead of Sandro (reason #1 I thought he's medic)
- He wrote twice that "that's when I thought I understood the medic plan" or something like that, which again, made me think he's a medic for thinking about that. (reason #2, #3 to think he's a medic)
- He apologized for screwing up twice as well and said the mistake was on him when talking about
- my jail n1 and that he should have listened to what I said instead of what bugs said
- my jail n2 when I was so furious about bugs dying when I made it perfectly clear that I need protection on bugs
that's reason #4 and #5 for thinking he was a medic
- He kept on talking about the medic thing NONSTOP and nothing else, which is reason #6 I thought he's a medic
Now if we take all that into consideration and with the knowledge that he in fact isn't a medic he thinks about medics an awful lot for apparently no reason. He also tried to figure out the "medic plan" I did n1 and n2. Why would you do that unless you're a medic yourself? I REALLY thought the guy is just a bad townie who kept blabbering about his role and can't keep his mouth shut and ignored the fact that he's not contributing both because I was damn certain about him being a medic and because being focused about a role (medic) like that is something new guys do if they happen to have that role themselves... Bugs thought the same thing, I told marv about it and he INSTANTLY agreed and said it's so obvious now that I mentioned it in mason-chat, which is the reason he changed from axle being probably mafia to axle being probably town so suddenly. Now that we know he is no medic it looks an awful lot like someone trying to contribute something (talk about medics) when it doesn't do a thing for us. At all. On top of that he is really focused about who ends up being medic'ed / jailed and there's obvious mafia reason to think about that a lot. I don't see a lot of reasons for townies to think about that stuff unless you're involved yourself (aka: you are the medic).
On January 29 2013 23:09 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2013 22:32 Oatsmaster wrote:
Fuck me, I really cant read Axle's posting,
Toad mind quoting where you think axle is soft-claiming medic?
The Pm you quoted I think is probably the nail though. basicly every single post he did? A little summary:D2, after Sandro died:+ Show Spoiler +I thought i had worked out the vet strategy on protects via Bugs post... to stop them ovelapping by centering the Doc and the Sherrif protects on diff people. The one thing I knew and I thought scum knew was Sand was getting protected. Having said that do you think the doc if there is one might be more likely than random to take your advice.
If so is putting the Sherrif just where the doc had been told to go was suboptimal Yeah?
Toad seems to think you were the best protect but gave the stupidest advice to the thread Huh? Sorry did you indicate what youd be doing at all?
I expect you did not.
In the absence of information how can doc try and dodge doubling up with you better than chance?
Well if they do the one thing some suggested you should not that would be better than nothing. Absolutely, we should NOT discuss who we are protecting tonight Last night that didn't work out at all well.
However Bugs DID
Then Toad Conveniently did what was maximally bad and most likely to result in Sherrif and a Doc if there is one protecting the same person. If you consider Bugs important enough to protect because he is good at this game.
Then wouldn't some doc somewhere think so too.
if the docs going to protect someone why would the Doc do the opposite to you and protect Sandro?
Yes you should not telegraph your moves to scum.
But putting your Sherrif's jail keep in the one place most likely a Doc will as well is silly.
But you can divide the protect-able pile in two a bit and try not to screw up by protecting the most likely person the doc if there is one would protect. screw this... I don't feel like searching for more stuff, that's just 3 posts and his posts are so hard to read... some stuff I quoted in mason chat: + Show Spoiler [no idea from where] +and yeah by then i was so tunneled that Bugs had the plan and the rest was fluff suggestions that I thought I understood the game, then some how it didn't happen. Well it didn't happen because you said in the thread it would not happen.
Well more precisely you said, you wouldn't say what you were doing and that Docs had to cover the whole field too.
And yeah in bold by the guy with the role, said that so that trumps all.
And yeah it does not matter that if with docs and jailers you are better off statistically splitting the puddles to get fewer protection collisions, the guy with the role said he would....
So Derp me read THIS post. It's what made me almost go "okay screw this, I'm not going to mason axle, there's no way he's not the medic"
However axle said he's willing to lynch gonzaw before the red check when bugs asked him about. Have to reread that one to understand the situation.
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yeah that's what I thought...
I guess all three out of: Annul, axle and mkfuba make good lynches for today.
I would have actually thought mafia would just give up when we lynched BKE and chez and then BKE suddenly flipped town, meaning something had to be wrong in our calculasions about one guy.
Axle being labled as 99% percent certain townie by all three of us (bugs, Marv, Toad) might be the reason they still thought they're in this.
It also fits the bill on the fact that we had to be wrong on one specific guy that has no connections to someone else because axle supposedly being a medic was the only reason he never got lynched.
TL;DR: Probably axle > annul > mkfuba?
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oh and axle fits my balance speculation ʕ·ᴥ·ʔ
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On January 29 2013 23:28 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2013 22:54 FiveTouch wrote:On January 29 2013 22:46 annul wrote:On January 29 2013 21:03 FiveTouch wrote:On January 29 2013 18:48 annul wrote:On January 29 2013 10:21 FiveTouch wrote:This desperately needs answering, by the way. On January 29 2013 07:26 FiveTouch wrote:annul: During night 2, you asked this: On January 26 2013 02:25 annul wrote:
hey WBG and fivetouch and toad
who are your top three scum reads pl0x bugs and toad gave you Chez/BKE/fuba, I gave you Chez/BKE/axlegreaser Knowing that we were 99% likely going to lynch Chez/BKE day 3, why on earth did you put your bomb on Chezinu? On January 27 2013 11:03 annul wrote:On January 27 2013 10:27 Stutters695 wrote:
Annul forgive me if this has been asked and I missed it, but why did you keep your bomb on Chezinu through n2? He was a pretty clear top candidate as soon as the d2 flip happened. Wouldn't it have made sense to move it to one of the other scummy people who probably wouldn't be lynched? if i died, i wanted to take a mafia with me. Why on earth would you die? How would you die? Why would you put your bomb on someone who is going to die already? how i'd die: through NKs why i'd die: who knows wtf the mafia is doing? explanation for the bombing (for the third time): On January 29 2013 18:49 annul wrote:
and i thought i could convince the town that the logic was sound to get off of chez (assuming BKE was red... which we ALL did, nearly unanimously). my persuasive skills are bad apparently. So effectively your argument is that in the miniscule eventuality you get killed on Night 2, you were going to blow up a mafia that was certainly going to die anyway the next day. Right? do you have an inability to read or something? for the FOURTH time, Show nested quote +On January 29 2013 18:49 annul wrote:
i thought i could convince the town {...} to get off of chez.
point being: That's a bad thing unless you are pretty damn certain you'll die as well and that we have a about equally good lynch lying around.
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yeah let's lynch axle first
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On January 30 2013 01:28 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 01:27 Stutters695 wrote:
Also Mocsta can you provide the timestamp for the first PM Annul responded with? Thanks. Still not reading the thread? Mocsta is dead.
that could be a mafiaploy! Don't make it a townread on stutters please :p
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can't call me stupid anymore after this game. We do think alike after all.
I mean for all I care you can still call me stupid every now and then but I'll do the "stop hitting yourself" and link to this game / to this post :3
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I think vivax might like that
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On January 30 2013 01:56 Vivax wrote:
Toad, did you look into Axle's willingness to vote gonzaw before the check? What are your results?
no I haven't 
His posts are so hard to read and I don't want to although I realy should...
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Another point that might be interessting: I was talking about the blue roles I thought I figured out (axle) way to much and had spammed away some of his posts on purpose. Bugs did the same because we were so damn certain he was medic and didn't want people to read his posts.
I however got mad when Vivax + Annul asked me to claim the medic + DT in the thread (which still was retarded by the way) and kept talking about it longer than I should have. Bugs died although I asked medics to protect him. I think if mafia looked at what I posted it should have been obvious that Axle was one of the blues I'm talking about because both bugs and I miraculously (to the rest of the thread) had him down as 99% certain townie.
It really shouldn't have been hard to figure out who I was talking about for mafia. They probably didn't shoot bugs because they thought him to be the DT but they could have just gone for Axle + someone else. They didn't. Now go ask yourself why Axle is still alive with me talking about blues so blatantly and telling people how axle is 99% confirmed town.
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On January 30 2013 02:36 annul wrote:
i am not guilty. stop attempting to frame me in such a way.
there is only one hole in my argument in getting the lynch off of chez and that is the assumption of BKE being red.
the implication of "LOL SEE BKE WAS NOT RED THEREFORE YOUR CHEZ PLAN SUCKED LOL YOU'RE MAFIA!!!!!!!!!!" had to be countered, and the way i did it was as you saw.
the point is that even if BKE is red your plan would have been anti-town.
If you're telling the truth you are town.
If you are town telling the truth about having bomb on BKE you're not getting shot by mafia, especially not while everyone is screaming for your head.
So unless you think you're mafia and you're scared to be shot by some random vig / joat who has kept his shot until now there's NO WAY for your plan to work.
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On January 30 2013 03:12 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 03:09 Vivax wrote:
Meh, whatever.
He and austin are far better lynches than Axle in my opinion.
As far as I'm understanding Toad he thinks Axle is scum cause he talked like he's a medic but didn't claim in the mason chat.
Well, he could have claimed saying that he tried to save someone if he was mafia, so I don't see the point Toad sees.
The Chez and gonzaw support can be said for grush and debears as well, I'm sure debears supported Chez initially, not sure about gonzaw, would have to look but I checked him anyway. grush is a mason with starsenses, and debears you checked green. Mocsta also flipped green. It's logical to lynch a gonzaw voter, apart from anything else. Also Toad didn't ask him if he was medic, he just asked him to claim his role. Toad and I discussed this and made sure Toad didn't "lead" Axle on for this reason.
not to mention that everyone thinks Axle is mafia for a reason... just take a look at his filter.
We're not lynching him for looking like a medic. If that would be the case and he really did that on purpose he would have claimed medic to me (as both mafia and town because as mafia he want's to keep the play and as town he has to make sure noone knows it's a play).
We wanted to lynch him all along but didn't do so because we thought he's a medic for a damn good reason. Now that we cleared that one out there's no reason not to lynch him right now.
I agree Annul would be a good lynch as well but I think Axle's the better one for today. And Annul +mkfuba for tomorrow.
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On January 30 2013 03:36 Vivax wrote:
Toad, how can you tell to take a look at his filter when you announced you would check his willingness to lynch gonzaw but then end up not doing so cause you have trouble reading his filter and don't want to read it?
because I already did it once or twice and I'm not going to do it again.
Noone can force me to do THAT
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2 important thigns I thought about while sleeping:
- There's really no need to double lynch right now and we shouldn't. I was wrong earlier on saying we should. If we doublelynch tomorrow we take away all the reasoning for mafia to shoot our bodyguards and while we still think they're most likely town, let's just not doublelynch until they
- Either start shooting our bodyguards
- Or shoot marv, which confirms bodyguards / the bodyguard as mafia
There's no reason to take away that advantage we still hold by doublelynching right now.
- Framer can't frame himself. He also can only frame the same person once. Vivax should be looking for said framer and not doing bullshit with his checks...
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On January 30 2013 19:34 AxleGreaser wrote:
Which might explain why I didn't vote for double Lynch.
I don't like your attitude right now
As in: I think you're mafia
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On January 30 2013 21:59 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 18:31 Toadesstern wrote:2 important thigns I thought about while sleeping:- There's really no need to double lynch right now and we shouldn't. I was wrong earlier on saying we should. If we doublelynch tomorrow we take away all the reasoning for mafia to shoot our bodyguards and while we still think they're most likely town, let's just not doublelynch until they
- Either start shooting our bodyguards
- Or shoot marv, which confirms bodyguards / the bodyguard as mafia
There's no reason to take away that advantage we still hold by doublelynching right now.
Toad, could you explain this one to me a bit?
we want mafia to shoot our bodyguards. Leaving the doublelynch for now gives mafia just one more reason to shoot into the bodyguards.
Also Vivax is looking worse and worse for suggesting that we should lynch you for safety. As long as we get a single mafia lynch in the next 6 or so cycles we win as long as the two of us are alive. Mafia knows they can't win by ignoring us and have to deal with us either way. 1 guy left, Marv left, Toad left in lylo is gg :p
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On January 30 2013 22:26 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 22:25 Toadesstern wrote:On January 30 2013 21:59 FiveTouch wrote:On January 30 2013 18:31 Toadesstern wrote:2 important thigns I thought about while sleeping:- There's really no need to double lynch right now and we shouldn't. I was wrong earlier on saying we should. If we doublelynch tomorrow we take away all the reasoning for mafia to shoot our bodyguards and while we still think they're most likely town, let's just not doublelynch until they
- Either start shooting our bodyguards
- Or shoot marv, which confirms bodyguards / the bodyguard as mafia
There's no reason to take away that advantage we still hold by doublelynching right now.
Toad, could you explain this one to me a bit? we want mafia to shoot our bodyguards. Leaving the doublelynch for now gives mafia just one more reason to shoot into the bodyguards. Also Vivax is looking worse and worse for suggesting that we should lynch you for safety. As long as we get a single mafia lynch in the next 6 or so cycles we win as long as the two of us are alive. Mafia knows they can't win by ignoring us and have to deal with us either way. 1 guy left, Marv left, Toad left in lylo is gg :p I think I'm being stupid. Why does a double-lynch remove motive for mafia shooting into bodyguards?
Because there's peopel being paranoid about you, just look at vivax.
We only have 2 double-lynches and already used one. They might hope that someone is going to lynch you and deal with you that way. And frankly speaking I think some people here might be stupid enough to fall for that.
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On January 30 2013 22:30 FiveTouch wrote:Show nested quote +On January 30 2013 22:28 Toadesstern wrote:On January 30 2013 22:26 FiveTouch wrote:On January 30 2013 22:25 Toadesstern wrote:On January 30 2013 21:59 FiveTouch wrote:On January 30 2013 18:31 Toadesstern wrote:2 important thigns I thought about while sleeping:- There's really no need to double lynch right now and we shouldn't. I was wrong earlier on saying we should. If we doublelynch tomorrow we take away all the reasoning for mafia to shoot our bodyguards and while we still think they're most likely town, let's just not doublelynch until they
- Either start shooting our bodyguards
- Or shoot marv, which confirms bodyguards / the bodyguard as mafia
There's no reason to take away that advantage we still hold by doublelynching right now.
Toad, could you explain this one to me a bit? we want mafia to shoot our bodyguards. Leaving the doublelynch for now gives mafia just one more reason to shoot into the bodyguards. Also Vivax is looking worse and worse for suggesting that we should lynch you for safety. As long as we get a single mafia lynch in the next 6 or so cycles we win as long as the two of us are alive. Mafia knows they can't win by ignoring us and have to deal with us either way. 1 guy left, Marv left, Toad left in lylo is gg :p I think I'm being stupid. Why does a double-lynch remove motive for mafia shooting into bodyguards? Because there's peopel being paranoid about you, just look at vivax. We only have 2 double-lynches and already used one. They might hope that someone is going to lynch you and deal with you that way. And frankly speaking I think some people here might be stupid enough to fall for that. I still don't understand at all what that means for double lynch. Mafia hope I might get lynched so we don't use the double lynch? What's the connection I'm missing?
with you being dead we can't use the doublelynch anymore, can't we?
Give them a straw they can hold on to, just to crush them afterwards :3
I mean whatever, doesn't make that much of a difference. Don't think mafia will just ignore us anyways.
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EPT
