EPT##Vote Hapahauli
Dessert Mini Mafia - Page 7
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If you in fact are town, Hapa, you better post ASAP - this lurking is really hurting the birth of any meaningful discussion. You haven't even updated your reads after Hopeless flipped... And he was almost confirmed scum according to you. | ||
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On January 22 2013 14:55 wherebugsgo wrote: okay so including the RB claim, why would Hapa as scum push Hopeless so hard with not even a shred of a backup plan? Would a scum really suicidally push a townie that hard? I'm not getting that part at all. sure, some of his reads look strange in hindsight, after knowing that Hopeless flipped town, but I think you can find town motivation behind most, if not all, of the things that he did. I'm super confused at why a scum, who knows Hopeless is town (and that Hopeless is one of the better players in the game) would just push him so hard for two days straight with not even an ounce of hesitation. Tunnel-syndrome is almost exclusive to townies. If anyone has seen Hapa play a scum game before in this style I'd love to see it, It is troubling that he didn't do a read-dump and that he's afk now but this is mind boggling to me. I think Hapa's play has had some similarities with Sloosh, actually. Both attempted to throw suspicion at me initially D1, but it didn't stick, so next they both decided to kill Prom. Then they both started tunneling Hopeless (although Sloosh also had WBG as his target for a while). Scum don't always need to be vague or opportunistic, it's also possible (and not certainly unheard of) to just tunnel some innocent townie. Of course it looks bad when he flips, but at least you're taking stances - and you can't always be correct, right? So no, I don't see Hapa tunneling Hopeless as a reason to think he's not scum. The only thing that could do that is if he finally jumped to the thread and absolutely nailed a scum or something equally townish. | ||
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On January 23 2013 06:57 wherebugsgo wrote: well he's not back yet and if he doesn't care about the lynch then I'm fine with him dying. I'm not going to bother defending someone who doesn't even want to defend themselves, so if he's town then the loss is on him. Yeah, this really sucks if he's town and just lost interest or something :/ | ||
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On January 23 2013 07:10 wherebugsgo wrote: wait, when was that? I don't remember grush attacking him like that. I remember him switching off Hopeless and onto Hapa. There is nothing particularly alignment indicative about anything grush has done. If grush is not scum, then I take it you argue that Lazer + jay are? Is Lazer 100% scum then? I don't see grush not being scum, tbh. Hmm... I guess you have a point. It was just a wasted vote, not at all dangerous to Hapa. And it was all around useless anyway.... So not really telling of his alignment. If Hapa flips scum (and I pray he does or we're headed to a swift loss) the remaining 2 scum really have to be among grush/Lazer/Jay - I'm not going to vote for you or iamperfection in any case. That means a 2 / 3 chance to hit scum, but it's not a thankful job to figure out the townie among them. I still feel like Kush was town, so atm it is grush/Jay. | ||
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I'll have to read filters when I get home. I think we're in a pretty good spot right now, but there's still room left for mistake. Tomorrow is still LYLO after all. | ||
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On January 23 2013 17:04 wherebugsgo wrote: I think the votecounts and Hapa's interactions with other players solve the game. It pretty much has to be lazer + grush I think. Let's start with the votecounts, starting with day 1. Day 1: Xatalos (1): jaybrundage Promethelax (7): slOosh, thrawn2112, grush57, MrZentor, Xatalos, Ruuch, Supersoft Lazermonkey (1): Promethelax Ruuch (4): Lazermonkey, wherebugsgo, Hapahauli, Hopeless1der Hapa votes Ruuch, which makes it almost impossible for Ruuch to be mafia. It was a latecycle switch and I don't see a scum hapa being willing to switch on his own teammate, since mafia cannot accurately predict what town will do in that type of a situation. Lazer also happened to vote Ruuch. (and yes, my vote is there too) This makes iamp surely town. d2 votecount doesn't really mean much, since from a mafia perspective the lynch was between two townies. d3 we have Hopeless dying and here's where things are interesting. Hopeless1der (5): Hapahauli, Xatalos, jaybrundage, Lazermonkey, wherebugsgo Lazermonkey (3): Hopeless1der, MrZentor, iamperfection Hapahauli (1): grush57 There are three townies on lazer. That means the three scum have to be between grush and everyone on Hopeless. Grush at some point was on Hopeless, but didn't like the hopeless lynch. Grush is not stupid-he trolls, but he is smart enough to know that voting Hapa randomly in the middle of a divided wagon like that is not going to get hapa lynched. He wasted his vote here. If he had simply placed it on Lazer then lazer would have had 4 votes, meaning that any one townie who switched off Hopeless onto lazer would've killed lazer over hopeless. Also, it fits with this really weird tendency by scum to stay off the same wagon. I've only once ever seen all the mafia on a team place their votes on the same wagon. It almost never happens, they are generally aware enough to not make that kind of trend pop out even though ultimately no one looks for it that much. Now, do one thing: take the word "grush", and open Hapa's filter in a new tab. ctrl-f, paste. Notice the difference between how Hapa talks about grush and how he talks about pretty much every other player in the game. Notice how he questions people about grush but almost never talks to him, makes a read of his own about him, or in general really takes a stance either way about him. Note how when he is asked to make reads, he makes a singular, relatively weak post about grush, and then, unlike all of the other players he talks about, chooses to quote himself in order to reiterate what he said previously. Scum HATE to make opinions on players, especially their own teammates. They'll do a lot of different things to avoid talking about scumbuddies, and avoidance is the keyword when it comes to hapa regarding grush. He also asks several times, with other players, notably myself and Hopeless, why we think grush is scum. He didn't seem to care all that much about us calling other players scum, so why did he care so much about grush despite not really providing a read of his own there? This is reinforced in the other direction by the incredibly strange stance change that grush took. He was voting Hopeless and then suddenly randomly he simply dumped his vote onto Hapa. It made no sense except as a distance attempt, knowing that Hopeless would flip town. The second thing I'd like you all to do while the Hapa filter is open, is ctrl-f kush. At some point you will run into the phrase "kush is being kush". This phrase is only used twice by Hapa. Once, saying "grush is being grush", and once, "kush is being kush." Coincidence? I don't think so. Remember, kush got replaced by lazer. I was suspicious of kush d1. Now, look again at how Hapa interacts with kush. He calls him useless, says he's being scummy, and in general gives vibes that he actually thinks kush is scum when he interacts directly with kush. However, with other players, he refuses to put a read on kush! He refuses to say either way what he thinks of kush. The last thing to do here is to search lazer, obviously. This is better, but ONLY because Lazer was a replacement. Hapa uses the replacement as an excuse to push off his read of lazer, and he talks about lazer the most but really doesn't ultimately say anything about his alignment if you read carefully. Sorry for the shitty formatting but I wanted to get this all out before I went to bed. Yeah, I completely agree about Ruuch/iamperfection. It would have been extremely stupid for Hapa to vote for Ruuch there if Ruuch had been scum - Hapa had no pressure to do so and he could have easily caused Ruuch to get lynched with that unnecessary vote. I can see how grush's vote for Hapa fits better with distancing than genuine suspicion. It was in every way a wasted vote and, if Lazermonkey is scum, also a good way to help him. At first I thought it made a Hapa/grush scumteam unlikely, but since that sudden push for Hapa didn't actually put him in any danger, distancing is more likely. Speaking of which, I have a really hard time picking between Lazermonkey and Jay. On the other hand, Kush played in a way that was completely suicidal for scum. But on the other hand, Jay has been pretty active and openly contributing his reads after D1 - even if he is considered a lynchbait. The fact that Lazermonkey has been up for lynch several times and always somehow escaped feels like there could be a scum agenda behind pushing his counter-wagons. Fortunately we have a claimed scum in thread, so we have a lot of time for deliberation. grush, speak out on your reads and everything that comes to your mind. Since it's starting to feel like you're the best choice for tomorrow, but there's always the chance that we're on the wrong track. | ||
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On January 24 2013 10:30 grush57 wrote: WBG, you forgot one thing. STARSENSES! Also you're over thinking the vote I thought hopeless was dead and wanted to show my vote on Hapa. And Lazermonkey is lurking so lynch him? Lurking seems to be the theme of this game :/ Not that I'm innocent myself, since I can post decently only for a small portion of the day outside of weekend. grush has been much more active lately though. Maybe it's the fear of death, maybe genuine will to figure out the final scums. If grush happened to be town, it's pretty hard to understand him assuring Hopeless' death despite having a townread on him, but it's not impossible that he just played bad (the same argument that can be made for Kush's anti-town play). At least one of grush/Lazer pretty much has to be scum though (even both is possible). Lazermonkey's diminishing activity is definitely worrying and enough to make me consider him as our best choice tomorrow. I'll be back home before deadline to try and make sense of grush/Lazer/Jay. | ||
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On January 25 2013 04:39 Lazermonkey wrote: Jay Well, after really analysing his filter, I must say he looks far far worse than grush. 1. His vote on Hopeless. All of Jay's votes this far has been super funky. But the one who is by far the most funky is his vote on hopeless. + Show Spoiler + On January 17 2013 11:19 jaybrundage wrote: Independent of you being scum voting for hopeless. I have a null tell/leaning townieon Hopeless. He has done some scummy things earlier on. However I think more recent his posting has improved like his reasoning for voting for Ruuch when he thought he might be town does make sense. It shows reasoning and his thought process. SlOosh In the small possibility that you are town. If you could give your reads on everyone and your other scum reads as well, I know that you think Hopeless and WBG are scum is there a third party that appeals to you? We have a whole day left. The more people post and be transparent the better of a chance town has towards winning. @Hapa given what Hopeless said. Why did you vote for Ruunch? If you thought Prom was scum? On January 18 2013 09:45 jaybrundage wrote: Given that Sloosh was SK. It makes my read of hopeless off. I assumed that sloosh would flip scum which would make Hopeless more likly to be town. But with Sloosh flipping SK it makes Hopeless seem a lot scummier imo. Tmw we should lynch hopeless or lynch grush. His pretty useless and hasn't contributed at all. When he does deem to give his reads. He doesn't follow it with any reasoning. Also Mr.Z i said it before but you gotta step it up. Where is the late game Mr.Z that was promised to me  2. His interactions with Hapa self-explanatory + and I did post about this earlier. 3. He doesn't really have any town reads. Giving out town reads usually isn't alignment indicative. But the way Jay does it, I feel it is. His only real town reads (and by ''real'', I'm excluding stuff like null/slight town shit) were WBG and MrZentor. Both for shit reasons. WBG because he said that it made no sense for both him and SlOosh and WBG to be scum but SlOosh hadn't even flipped at that point. MrZentor because he defended him at the start if D1... I get the impression that he is trying to buddy up with the vets while setting up bandwagons everywhere else. 4. His back and forth with grush Note that this is actually not that dependant on grush being scum, though it does indeed make him look worse if grush is indeed scum. Basically all game he has got a scum read on grush it seems, yet he doesn't want to vote him nor truly push him. He just keeps on poking him a little bit now and then. Very non-commital. Look at British Empire MM where he had a scum read on Mr.CC and note the big diference compared to this game. In both game he was having a scum read who noone else was really interested in. In British, he kept pushing Mr. CC like a madman. In this game, not so much. Also, why no vote on grush? In British he mentions CC for like the third time ever in the game and BAM, vote right away.+ Show Spoiler + On January 06 2013 03:32 jaybrundage wrote: First off you said you have done this before how many times have you done this tunneling on DP and out of the times you have done it how many times have you been wrong. If you play with DP alot and you can read him consistently then I will reconsider my position. The reason I find him scummy as been said before. Is his flip flopping on Hapa from hes obv completly with out a doubt scum to i have no fucking idea. It seemed to me like scum backing off of a mislynch they were pushing gone wrong. I personally put alot less faith in reading people's reactions to when they are about to be or going to be lynched. The quote was me being frustrated with DP's flip flopping he has gone from scum to town to scum now giving someone townie cred for the possibility of one of his scum reads being town. So yes he did change his opinion on hapa again. I didnt say anything wrong. Also I dont like CC hes doing absolutely nothing this game. He has made some worthless comments about concentrating on finding scum. He was mentioning the DP-Hapa conversations early one with out giving his opinion on him hasn't commentated much on it when DP was doing some scummy stuff. He makes a case on Xalatos for making a 180 on DP and calls him scummy for it. However when DP does so many 180s on Hapa hes trying to pull off a 900. CC doesn't give it a second thought although DP is doing the samething as Xalatos CC ignores it. CC has played like he has more knowledge on other townies. He would of known if DP and Hapa were town or not so he played accordingly. Also his lack of anything in his filter is really disconcerting. He has said useless 1 liners. And made a case of 180s that were exactly what DP was doing. ##Unvote ##Vote Mr.CheeseCake A grush+Jay scumteam does in fact make sense. Especially with Jay suspecting grush for the longest time, but still always preferring some other lynch candidate over grush. The problem I'm having is this: Jay has basically played to his town meta (except his weaker D1 and this later almost-AFK'ing for many days). He's being open, active and pushes his reads. It's in his nature to be a lynchbait (looking scummy at times), but there's nothing that convinces me of him being scum. Even his "funky" vote for Hopeless can be explained by the fact that a Sloosh+Hopeless scumteam was unlikely (thus the slight townread on Hopeless), but with Sloosh flipping SK, it made sense again for Hopeless to be scum (SK+scum being the opposing wagons makes a lot more sense than scum+scum being the opposing wagons). All in all Jay looks quite townish to me individually. But there aren't too many options left anymore, and with a grush+Jay team looking like a plausible combination, Jay can't be given a free pass - especially now at LYLO. When thinking about Lazermonkey, I keep coming back to Kush's early posts. Can these really come from scum? On January 13 2013 09:47 kushm4sta wrote: fyi i dont read megacases, so keep that in mind. k this is my last intro post. Next time I post it will be telling you who i think is scum. On January 13 2013 12:30 kushm4sta wrote: i was lying i guess On January 14 2013 04:01 kushm4sta wrote: mrz is playing scum how I play scum aka newbish. he has these amazing town reads revoting mrz ##unvote ##vote mrz I even read through the early Witchcraft and Kush definitely didn't play this erratically as scum. He was a bit spammy, yeah, but he was also being polite and trying not to gather negative attention with his posts. He clearly cared about appearing innocent and staying safe. That's not the case at all here. Now Kush just kept saying whatever he wanted and didn't clearly care about looking scummy. If someone can show me wrong, please do, but I just can't see the link between Kush's earlier scum play and this game. I have a much harder time trying to read Lazermonkey. He does have some pretty scummy posts like this: On January 18 2013 02:53 Lazermonkey wrote: /Facepalm How does me sheeping SS make me scum, Lol? He is one of the two players in the game who is in fact confirmed town. And I didn't vote SlOosh for the reasons that SS thought made SlOosh scum. I'm purely sheeping WBG. Or this (lol): On January 18 2013 02:45 Lazermonkey wrote: SlOosh. I'm not too sure of the next two players as my main scum target died tonight... However, I'm quite sure the two remaining scum are among Hapa grush Xata Jay Iamp MrZentor. But then he does have some posts where it looks like he's actually trying to figure out the game: On January 18 2013 23:54 Lazermonkey wrote: This is actually quite interesting, Xata realizes that WBG isn't happening and says that both looks scummy but it's unlikely that both are scum. He then chooses to vote Hopeless, even tho my impression from the post is that he just as well could've voted hopeless. I don't think Hopeless and Xatalos are scum together. It makes no sense with the lynch this close to buss. On January 21 2013 07:18 Lazermonkey wrote: WBG, how does hopeless flipping scum make grush look bad? O.o I'd say it makes him look townie, he has been pushing Hopeless since D1 you know.. All in all Kush/Lazermonkey is a real mixture of townish and scummy. I'm having a hard time coming to a conclusion about his alignment, but looking purely at the remaining player pool, I'd say that Lazermonkey makes more sense as scum individually than Jay while making less sense as scum in combination with grush (or they've been bussing each other really hard in recent days). Then we arrive at grush. The extent of his contributions are alarmingly low throughout the whole game, and mostly he has just (actively?) lurked or posted meaningless filler. On January 13 2013 14:58 grush57 wrote: Lynch into hopeless, zentor, xatalos gogogo. grush is showing a really scummy mindset. He's basing his will to lynch Hopeless on pretty much just OMGUS (earlier Hopeless had accused grush and grush went on the offensive without any real reasoning), MrZentor for no actual reason (except his "stupid and scummy" post formatting earlier I guess) and me for absolutely no reason (just sheeping Sloosh's case on me probably). Yet he's apparently willing to lynch any of us three, without preference. What the heck? On January 15 2013 05:55 grush57 wrote: Alright I'll get on the prome train. Choo Choo! ##Unvote ##Vote: Promethelax Again he's showing an extreme indifference and sheepish attitude towards lynching scum. If he even intends to find scum at all... On January 17 2013 06:48 grush57 wrote: Sorry guys I know I've been afk but I can't help that. If there's any consolation, i am town because of starsenses. ##Vote: Hopeless1dr And again just purely sheeping................. On January 20 2013 13:19 grush57 wrote: Seeing hopeless' flip makes or breaks the reads bro. Here he's apparently convinced that lynching Hopeless is the correct choice. On January 21 2013 02:54 grush57 wrote: I'll go for a lazermonkey lynch. ##Unvote ##Vote: lazermonkey Also Mr. Zentor you are a confirmed town and you are doing absolute jack shit with it. Jumping off the Hopeless train conveniently when he's soon about to flip. Notice that he provides no reasoning for his drastic change of opinion (besides something vague earlier about Hopeless being a worse lynch candidate now due to his recent activity). On January 21 2013 07:36 grush57 wrote: hapa, seriosuly u literally did nothing this whole game, and notice how he doesn't refute it he just edits my post pulling the ol' scum strawman argument. You are absolutely nothing alike in your town games. ##Unvote ##Vote: HapaHauli Lazermonkey might actually get lynched instead of Hopeless at this rate?? Oh wait, I'm going to jump off the wagon again and 100% waste my vote while distancing myself nicely from Hapa at the same time. I can't possibly be held accountable for mislynching a townie (Hopeless) or cause my scumbuddy to be lynched (Lazermonkey) / be held accountable for mislynching a townie (Lazermonkey). I'm also making it look like I and Hapa can't be a scumteam. What could possibly go wrong? *a lot of random filler and YouTube video clips follow, and then...* On January 24 2013 06:41 grush57 wrote: The case on WBG: His first post with Hapa, so nice with his scumbuddy  Next post with Hapa Hey wbg scumbuddy, you've pushed a probably town, but that stopped when you sheeped a wagon that you didn't vote for.No scumreads. Geez, your stupid, but definitely not scum. Notice How he doesn't actually adress anything in the post that matters, just corrects a little thing. Here is a post of how constantly throughout the game the scum do a shitty attack against eachother but never a real case A town is getting lynched, but I;m not gonna bother to save him. Let's look at the bolds first, jay(probably town at this point, me(town), zentor flipped town, xatalos(probably town at this point), and ruuch who is now iamperfection so probably town. This also shows who voted for ruuch, Happa, Lazer, and WBG. :o I wonder why they wanted the easy mislynch Besides the scummy logic notice the capital LOL WBG was completely wrong on this too. The only big case he made was on...... the SK! The only time he seemed town was pushing Sloosh because sloosh was acting scummy, but he was sk. Hey I know you're town so I'm going to pull the classic move of making a town make reads for me. Also Hopeless - Town Xatalos - Prolly town Zentor- Town Prome- Town I am admitting to be lazy scum. Also lets mislynch hopeless. ... Contradicting scum. That was just one post of why it was stupid to think that a vet town wbg would get shot by scum. When not in danger he puts himself townie, but when ind anger changes it up brohan. So this was when it was between Hopeless and Lazer. It came down to wbg, and pretended to give a possibility of lynching lazer. In less than an hour he voted Hopeless mislynching him, because he called him scum. OMGUS... Also Lazermonkey just lurked and didn't even try to defend himself but he hopeless has shit reads therefore he is scum? So basically throughout the game WBG has constantly contradicted himself, threw votes anywhere, put shitty attacks on scummates, always tried to mislynch(except for the sk), and even today he tried to vote me instead of Hapa at first. Strawman arguments, picks out one flaw of an attack and doesn't respond to the actual matter at hands. I hope you all go throughout his filter aswell and make some reads yourself. I feel like I didn't get everything there was just too much scumminess. What is this, an actual case and reasoning for someone to be scum??? Nevermind. It's full of WIFOM, totally pointless arguments and very little actual reason. It all feels forced and grasping at straws to throw some dirt at WBG without success. Let's look at some of the (non)arguments being used here: - Pointing out "capital LOL" as some sort of a scumtell - Discussing in a friendly way with Hapa being a scumtell (why would scum associate like that openly in the thread?) - Lazermonkey throwing a vote at WBG makes WBG scum..? - "The only time he seemed town was when he was pushing Sloosh".... really now? The ONLY time he seemed town? There's no way grush believes this even himself - WBG being wrong about his early scumreads is a scumtell... - WBG "contradicting" himself with some comments about being shot at night or not... really? he just says "I haven't been shot as town in a while" and "who knows, I'll probably just be shot tonight", there isn't any contradiction there - How is it scummy to lynch Hopeless for shitty reads while grush is just avoiding the lynch altogether himself...?? The only point I somewhat agree with is "A town is getting lynched, but I;m not gonna bother to save him." WBG had a really indifferent attitude there to Prom getting lynched. But that's just a small valid point in a sea of far-fetched and baseless accusations. I feel confident that grush is our correct next lynch, but I'm not sure about Lazer/Jay. I'd really like some input especially on my conflicting read for Kush/Lazermonkey. Especially from iamperfection/WBG, if possible. | ||
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On January 25 2013 07:57 iamperfection wrote: grush should die first imo Yeah, but what about Kush/Lazermonkey? Do you have any input on my read on him? I'm having a really hard time concluding if he's town or scum atm. | ||
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Notice the drastic difference from that game to this game. He has a much more serious, cautious and diplomatic attitude to everything. But here... He just didn't seem to care if he appeared scummy or not, doing all kinds of scummy things and otherwise gathering negative attention. | ||
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On January 25 2013 08:11 iamperfection wrote: that is correct but he wasnt in this game very long i would put more stock into kush's actions. Plus since lazer is still in the game that is how i would judge it. You mean put more stock into Lazer's actions? I guess that's fair, since Kush was forced out of the game early D1, but it's hard to shake the initial townread I had on Kush. | ||
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##Vote grush57 And I was roleblocked once more.... | ||
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On January 25 2013 13:27 jaybrundage wrote: Given Grush and Lazer are coming together to try to lynch make makes it seem a hell of a lot more likely for one of them to be scum. Similar to how Z-bo and Yamato went for the same mislynch at LYLO in British Mafia. ##Vote LazerMonkey But at this point I would be willing to lynch either as scum. WBG whats your thoughts on the grush lazer scum team? Any preference on who we lynch between the two? I agree that this is looking similar to the last mislynch attempt by Z-boson/Yamato in British. But why Lazer? They're most likely both scum with this latest development, but grush is still more likely scum. | ||
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