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Newbie Mini Mafia XXXV - Page 6

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 15 2013 06:44 GMT
#651
On January 15 2013 15:36 shz wrote:
This of course means, that Oats was NK'ed by mafia, but for now we should work with the reasoning that Oats Vigi'ed glurio, and scum NK'ed Oats.


I agree with this logic. There is no point making association cases (i.e. he whose name must not be spoken)


Well my thoughts on the matter are

2 situations seem likely

(1) Oats accused a MULTITUDE of people.. Perhaps one or more of those targets were scum. They may have killed him because he was close to finding them? He is quite an in-your-face pressure player, so it may have made scum uncomfortable enough to NK?

&

(2) Oats was one of 3 players Night 1 that had more than 2 pages of filter. Like you said, they perhaps decided to Kill an active player, and RB the other active player?


Im guessing my RB then has more to do with (2).. If its hard enough to get a scum read with the considerable amount of low post/low quality filters.. i assume its even more difficult to figure out blue roles.

But the NK makes more sense to me with (1).. Perhaps it was a combination of both?
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 15 2013 06:48 GMT
#652
On January 15 2013 15:33 shz wrote:
It's hard for scum and town to actually draw many conclusions of which player has which role, other than basic alignment. So I think that it is totally possible to just RB an active player. If scum saw Oats as a better NK, they could just RB their second priority.


I just had a thought. Nobody else has claimed an RB (yet).. How do we even know scum has an RB?

Do you think from Night 1, Town RB would target me?




This definitely makes me think.. Oats votes went to a mafia.. im going to tally his votes.. BRB
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 15 2013 07:00 GMT
#654
On January 13 2013 08:58 Oatsmaster wrote:
##Vote: Mocsta

##Vote: bringaniga

##Vote: Mandalor

##Vote: laguerta

##Vote zebezt


(1)
Mocsta - This can be discounted. We were both pressuring each other, and he got over emotional and turned suspicion into a vote.

(2)
Bringaniga - Complete troll. Who knows if town or scum. Spaghetticus has replaced him. I am still waiting for more before making a decision on alignment. However, him having the confidence to call out my play so directly, I guess suggests he has the interests of town at heart.

(3)
Mandalor - Confirmed townie.

(4)
La Guerta - The consensus seems to be bad townie.. probably bored as well hence the modkill. Should pressure heavily once the replacement kicks in.

(5)
zebezt - Has recently been dodging questions; even when promising to get back to us.. Im starting to think zebezt is a reasonable candidate to have felt intimidated by the pressure from Oatsmaster.

Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 15 2013 07:26 GMT
#657
@zebezt
Why have you shifted your top scum read from an active lurky player to a modkilled (lurky) player?

I know you don't like to pressure, but, this is taking things too far...

What has Sn0_Man done to make you think he is not suspicious anymore? Do you think your motives for this behaviour can be read as scum motivated?

P.S.
On January 13 2013 03:36 zebezt wrote:
With some luck there is a vigilante or SK that can kill of the lurkers for us :D
...

Looks like you got your wish.

Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 15 2013 07:40 GMT
#658
On January 15 2013 16:24 zebezt wrote:
If I was scum I would try to get rid of the most influential townies. You fit this bill much more than Oats. The fact that you didn't get NK'ed makes you look suspicious

Influential? I have been called for my play by almost everyone in this thread (lurkers and actives). I even said today I have to take a step back.

Did you not read this from my prime interrogator.
On January 15 2013 15:57 shz wrote:
It's not like you weren't challenged in the last days.


(1) Your are dodging others questions; people like Shz have already re-asked you the questions. I think even Mr. King of lurkers (Acid~) wasted one of his few posts to re-ask you questions.

Your response: i thought I answered it all.. are you not reading the thread?

(2) You then say I am influential.. as if the events of Night 1 didnt happen. Are you not reading the thread.. again?
If you haven't, this is very reckless accusations to be making; something I would think only scum would be motivated to do..

(3) I was RB'd.. its not clear whether town or scum.. but as noone else has stepped up to say they were RB'd. I am going to assume for the time being it was scum.

(4) The difference between you & (Shz/Myself) is.. we were considering different options for why Oats was killed.

You however just assume.. if I would do it.. scum would do it.... WHOAH wait a sec.. if you were scum then of course you could speak with confidence like that.

This is a huge concern to me. Please explain how this is town motivated thing to say?

Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 15 2013 23:22 GMT
#688
Wow quite a few didnt post over the usa/europe shift.

Omnieulogy never seen u post nothing meaningful in a 24hr period before? Whats going on... Actually im not even sure if u posted meaningfully during night 1...

I want to see more from u. The past 48hrs migh een classify u as LURKING
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 00:28 GMT
#691
On January 16 2013 05:30 Acid~ wrote:
I also wanted to pressure Zebezt and have other townies look into his filter/behavior so they could either back me up or show me why I was misguided.

There was only one person who did this, and he was killed last night.


Near the start of Night 1; I had 3 or 4 posts with Oatsmaster where he was upholding your perspective, and I was trying to provide alternative perspectives for the behaviour. So Oatsmaster was NOT the only person.

I am also the person who asked whether he was looking into Zebezt because of your suspicions - in fact I asked him twice.




I am not against anyone questioning/pressuring their scum read. Its what we need to do.

Right now.. I look at the situation we are 24hrs into Day2, and there is no lead candidate for the lynch.

My case so far has been on zarepath:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=391615&currentpage=32#622

He has since addressed my concerns, but I need to read through that more critically before commenting.

My question is: Acid~

If zarepath convinces me he is town from his defense.

Are you sure zebezt is the best candidate to campaign for Day 2?









Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 01:33 GMT
#694
@zarepath

Thanks for the defense against my character analysis.

I think most of the points are sound and you have addressed this adequately enough so you are off my scum list for now.


I will say 2 final points on this though.

(1)
You mentioned you want to participate more. I will be tracking this. Many have said it, and many have not followed through. (obviously situations like Omni with the circuit breaker meltdown don't count)

(2)
Regardless of you and Acid~ thinking the analysis is OMGUS. I stand by it not being. In particular with the "bomb", I don't think its appropriate to let fly a bunch of accusations, and then walk away without clarifying it further, or asking pressure questions. To let others do the dirty work is not solid town play in my opinion.

I hope that you can this commentary as constructive feedback, and work to not do it again.

In short: If you don't like someones play, sure.. call out their behaviour, but at least support the claim there and then as well.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 01:45 GMT
#695
On January 16 2013 10:00 Acid~ wrote:
I don't buy zarepath as scum yet.


As I noted to zarepath above this post, his defense detailed rational answers to my queries. Hes off my list for the time being.

I need to re-read filters, and find my next target. I will probably read zebezt filter last, to remove any tunneled thoughts of guilt.


I will post again some stage later today with collected thoughts, and present who I think is the most suitable candidate for Day2 lynch.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 03:32 GMT
#697
*sigh* thats unfortunate Omni.. hopefully it all works out for you. Best of luck
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 09:23 GMT
#709
Acid.

I couldnt put as much time as i wanted into the game today.
Promotion and all..

I am home in 5hrs. Fyi my filter trawling has resulted in a find. Its controversial though so need to reconfirm.


When i get back i will address zebezt question. I think he is overreading things massively.

I will also go through your trotske case. From a first read . Some of the points are very suspicious indeed
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 13:18 GMT
#716
@zebezt
I claimed the RB, because it is standard practice and I thought the information would be useful for town.
Because nobody else claimed an RB, I admit there was no gain in the end, but I still think it was worthwhile.

Either way, I never gave out this information to claim or insinuate I was town. Hence, this is why I think you are over-reading this reference.


@Acid~
Here is my breakdown of your case on Trotske
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=391615&currentpage=36#704

Exhibit A
Disagree. However, I attribute this to differenting mentalities, different methodologies and different philosphies.

Even though your posts are limited in count, the candour duly expressed clearly demonstrates why you would be biased against this opinion. In that regard, you are akin to Oatsmaster.
I treat the post you referenced as null. Town OR Scum can seek fingers to not be pointed at them.

*As an aside: I was in entrenched in words with Oatsmaster not because he pointed fingers, but because his tone and wording was so vicious and taken out of context. There are many ways to intimidate, and his primary method was to be a bully. I disagree with that in general. If you wouldn't talk like that at work, or at home; why do it on a FACELESS forum.*

Exhibit B
Agree. I do not see an abundance of quality posts in Trotske filter. However, I cant hold it against Trotske he is confused about a scum read. There was a lot of confusion Day1; I believe at one stage at least 5 people out of 13 had a vote against their name. That is NOT normal. Read: Leaning towards scum.

Exhibit C
Agree. I didn't see the pattern before from this perspective. It doesn't help he spells my name as Macosta.. so I am naturally biased to this Read: Scum

Exhibit D
On the fence. But this is due to my case that I am about to start writing.. I think the saying "He who is not sinned, throws the first stone" may (or may not) apply here. Read: Null

Exhibit E
Agree. This is not the definition of a quality post that Trotske himself promised to deliver. It is essentially looking to contribute, without meaningfully contributing. Read: Scum

Conclusion
I think out of 5 points, 3 are definitely scummy in nature. There is potential here. However.....

I think I have identified *1* of the mafia.. and by [forced] association the 2nd. Your evidence on Trotske suggests we may have the 3rd. I do not want to build association cases (even though I just brought it up), its too risky; however, if my 2nd mafia does not get traction tonight [this will make sense when the case is released], I am willing to put serious consideration into Trotske.


Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 13:24 GMT
#717
(Mocsta) Random Musings - Day 2


Overall I am pretty disapointed with the amount of discussion day 2.

I am noticing there isnt that much discourse anymore, and people are only responding if they are addressed a direct question - sometimes the replys come in super fast meaning these people are actively following the thread, but choosing not to input to the thread!

In my opinion this allows mafia to blend in by not having to input unless asked. Not a good thing to occur.

Though I am trying to take a step back from leading discussion, I still believe we need to constructively critique everyones cases and logic. This just is not happening currently. (At least scum hunting in general has picked up though)


Having said that, I want to congratulate a few of the lurkers for stepping up today.

Acid, your post count is beginning to snowball.. you may even reach a 2nd page . I want to thank you for showing the courage to ask others to critique your thoughts.. you are one of the few doing this. I think this is essential moving forward. I hope you appreciate my perspective on your findings. Overall, I think its solid. Not 10/10, but close.

&

Sn0_Man, in 24 hr, you managed to turn my read on you from scummyish/null to strong town. This is not a small feat to accomplish. I still want to see more from you, but, the approach you took today really screams town to me. Not sure if this was due to coach feedback, but well done regardless.


Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 14:50 GMT
#722
That whole post was terrible.

As you said the post had bad logic in general.

Im not going to make excuses for it. Hopefully the case I am 80% through will make up for it.

*hint* its not you.

Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 15:27 GMT
#724
Mocsta: Day 2 - Prime Lynch Candidate
A revisit to the past... resets the now: ..."You are only as good as your last contribution"
PREFACE:
After zarepath raised solid points to clear him for Day 2, I had to go back to the chaos of Day 1. I was certain scum was responsible, or at least sowed the seeds for what eventuated.


From my perspective I identify/signify three key points to the overall chaos:
  • Myself/Oatsmaster in-fighting. This was finished within the first 24hrs, so did not directly impact the final 10 or so hours. However, I think it may have contributed to the following item.
  • Lurkers in general were silent until ~ the final 10 hrs. Suddenly throwing in sheep votes, and being blatant about it. This may have been due to Day1 being on the weekend, but the reasons don't matter. It is the outcome that is of importance, and lurker votes are *always* concerning, especially when paired with weak justification/sheeping.
  • The La Guerta "##Vote: No-Lynch" - This created an immediate uproar and it was quickly determined he lied.
  • The La Guerta bad townie or scum debate. Somehow, town went to from a dispersed vote, to consolidated vote, back to dispersed vote.



To regurgitate the outcome of this chaos.
+ Show Spoiler +

(1)
On January 14 2013 08:26 Stutters695 wrote:
bringaniga (1) - shz, Oatsmaster, Mandalor, Laguerta
Acid~ (1) - OmniEulogy, Zarepath
Mocsta (0) - Oatsmaster
Oatsmaster (0) - Mocsta
Sn0 Man (2) - Mocsta, Zebezt, Trotske
shz (1) - OmniEulogy
Laguerta (1) - Mandalor
Mandalor (2) - Mocsta, Oatsmaster
zebezt (1) - Acid~
No-Lynch (1) - Laguerta

Not Voting - everyone else
A widely dispersed vote. Then Oats requests consolidation.
On January 14 2013 10:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
Ok guys, its less than 3 hours to lynch, we NEED to consolidate.
If you think the leading candidate which is laguerta is scummy, vote for him.
If you think someone else is scummier, PUSH FOR THEIR LYNCH.

This leads to
(2)
On January 14 2013 11:59 cDgCorazon wrote:
Laguerta (7) - Mandalor, OmniEulogy, Glurio, Shz, Oatsmaster, Mocsta, Zarepath
Sn0_Man (1) - Zebezt, Trotske, Mocsta
Mandalor (1) - Trotske, Mocsta, Oatsmaster
zebezt (1) - Acid~
Mocsta (1) - Sn0_Man, Oatsmaster
bringaniga (0) - shz, Oatsmaster, Mandalor, Laguerta
Oatsmaster (0) - Mocsta
shz (0) - OmniEulogy
Acid~ (0) - Zarepath, OmniEulogy
No-Lynch (1) - Laguerta
For 13 players, 7 votes on 1 target is a consolidated vote. Especially as everyone else held 1 vote.
SOMEHOW this turns into:
(3)
On January 14 2013 12:56 thrawn2112 wrote:
Laguerta (3) - Mandalor, Shz, Mocsta, Zarepath, Oatsmaster, OmniEulogy, glurio
zebezt (2) - Acid~, Oatsmaster
Mandalor (2) - Trotske, glurio, Mocsta, Oatsmaster
Oatsmaster (2) - zarepath, OmniEuology, Mocsta
Sn0_Man (1) - Zebezt, Trotske, Mocsta
Mocsta (1) - Sn0_Man, Oatsmaster
bringaniga (0) - shz, Oatsmaster, Mandalor, Laguerta
shz (0) - OmniEulogy
Acid~ (0) - Zarepath, OmniEulogy
No-Lynch (1) - Laguerta

I don't know if the chaos was pre-mediated (After all you can not predict what lurkers will do OR who they will vote), but I think mafia took full advantage of the chaos. At the end of the Day1, there are THREE players with 2 votes, and 1 player lynched with 3 votes. Even though I ended up being the hammer, realistically, ANYBODY could have been the hammer with how it all turned out.

How did we get here, and importantly, why did we end up here? This is answered in the proceeding case.


ACT I: The phoenix rises from the ashes - TeMiL 2.0
+ Show Spoiler +

(1)
For those that did not play Newbie XXXIV, TeMiL was a very low post count, low quality player with an output almost identical to La Guerta. TeMiL's highlight of contribution was the following:
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 05 2013 00:02 TeMiL wrote:
ive just make a chart with your connections.
i want to know for each one your nationality and the country of residence, or maybe everyone are native from each country that TL says:
TeMiL - Peru
Sylencia - Australia
Spaghetticus - Australia
Mocsta - Australia
StriX - Australia
OmniEulogy - Canada
jampidampi - Finland
cDgCorazon - USA
zarepath - USA

i need to make some conclusiones with this information

Suffice to say, TeMiL was defended as bad town (this included me ). I do not know why we felt sympathetic to him, but we did. The story with TeMiL ended with him being modkilled Day2 for not voting. In fact I don't think he said a vote during Night 1 either. He ended up flipping SCUM

Why am I referring to this?

Because, for what ever reason, La Guerta has been interpretted widely as "bad town" and now that I have had a clear mind to revisit the past... it resets the now. I do not think La Guerta is bad town. I think his play is akin to TeMiL and therefore is SCUM


(2)
+ Show Spoiler [Filter Analysis] +

This guys posts is full of fluff as indicated by:
On January 13 2013 22:40 laguerta wrote:
When does voting end?
On January 14 2013 07:08 laguerta wrote:
because im going to help the town later when i stop being super tired and lazy
On January 13 2013 00:31 laguerta wrote:
k
On January 14 2013 07:09 laguerta wrote:
##unvote
##vote no one

What is there to say? Literally. In the process he even lied; as he said he was against the "No-Lynch"

People say zebezt or Trotske might be bad town.. well if they are the bar of high quality, La Guerta is still in the shit.

I think for whatever reason, the turning point for bad town was due to this post:
On January 14 2013 07:01 laguerta wrote:
Umm bringaniga voted for me and then I voted for him to defend myself and also because vote thing is running out and i dont know who to vote for yet.

Again; even if zebezt/Trotske are the benchmark for quality.. La Guerta is still in the shit.

This guy has done NOTHING for town, and as I stated in the preface, I think his No-Lynch vote was a major contributor to the chaos of Day 1. Further to this he outright lied. Town has no reason to do this Day 1.

The more I think about it, this was a brilliant strategy to unsettle the town environment. Somehow, he managed to include JUST the right amount of "newbieness" for others to feel sympathetic. A la TeMiL.

If anything, I think scum saw TeMiL worked last game, and decided to rinse and repeat. Hence TeMiL 2.0

In Summary
Reasons for La Guerta being scum
  • Zero contribution to town
  • Lies, and as town would have no reason to. Especially Day 1
  • Key Constituent of chaos during lynch, due to voting "No-Lynch"
  • Playing an identical game to Newbie 34 scum player TeMiL; hence TeMiL 2.0

I appreciate the information I have provided is subjective. But that is the point of such a low quality filter: You have to take a RISK and assume. I dont want to make the same mistakes with TeMiL two games in a row.

Also, I don't think the TeMiL style is intended to be a full game contributor. Its a play to cause disarray in the thread, and sow seeds of non-trust in town. Based on the current town vibe, I think this in fact did occur and is only now starting to repair.


Interlude - Controversy strikes again (Dire Circumstances call for Dire Measures)
+ Show Spoiler +

Mocsta.. you sir are a dimwit.. La Guerta is your best scum read and he is being replaced today, so who are you voting for Day 2.

Exactly.. I am advocating, if La Guerta is replaced, he needs to be questioned IMMEDIATELY. We can not give him a free pass to get his act together. If a cop exists I think he is definitely a worthwhile check.

However, as stated, I can not vote for him without a replacement confirmed.. this leads to the controversy. The association case

I understand I have advocated not to do this. But with the current town environment, Dire Circumstances call for Dire Measures.
As I am 100% certain La Guerta is scum. If that is the case even though his posts may be useless to find associations. I think the chaos he raised will have presented an opportunistic scum to take advantage of the situation.

Hence my focus for the association was related to who led/followed the band-wagon OFF La Guerta.

The find is as follows...


ACT II - (Forced) Scum Read - The solution required to the ?problem? - INCEPTION
+ Show Spoiler +

I say ?problem? because I think the intention for La Guerta was always to be lynched Day 1. The gambit being to destroy town productivity over multiple days. As a strategy I can see validity in this. It didnt matter if he was alive or not, because he would never be productive for town.
It could even be incorporated for scum to lynch La Guerta by uncovering the lie to get town cred for free.

Obviously though its always better to keep up numbers, so I think mafia planted a seed (inception) they hoped someone else would develop (the idea being a luxury but not essential )... Therefore when Trotske threw this out there:
On January 14 2013 09:48 Trotske wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 14 2013 07:01 laguerta wrote:
Umm bringaniga voted for me and then I voted for him to defend myself and also because vote thing is running out and i dont know who to vote for yet.


I think this post is of a really really bad town player who thinks he needs to defend himself with votes on other people and I think that Mandalor is trying to kill a bad townie. So for that and the post Macosta made stating the reasons for lynching him I am going to change my vote.

##Unvote
##Vote Mandalor

I think this was the advantage scum were waiting for to receive a solution to problem that didnt really exist (i.e. save La Guerta), but would be a nice-to-have.

Now, my scum read (by association) I think saw this opportunity and decided to pounce. The response to Trotske is here:
(I have intentionally removed the name to remove bias when reading)
On January 14 2013 10:35 [name removed] wrote:
If Laguerta is scum, I must admit there is a lack of anybody trying to save him... would scum bus themselves D1? That's suicidal. The fact that nobody has even tried to push strongly for another lynch worries me a little bit...

I think this person setup the play and pulled the strings for La Guerta to be freed. The strings were pulled so hard, even narrow-sighted Oatsmaster was led to say this in the final heartbeats of Day 1:
On January 14 2013 12:59 Oatsmaster wrote:
MOCSTA ARE YOU SURE THAT LAGUARTA IS SCUM?

I think this quote summarises the state of confusion for town in general, and La Guerta uncertainty. We all know Oats is a straight shooter, so for him to be in this disarray is saying something.

+ Show Spoiler [Delving Deeper] +

The unnamed person in the quote above is OmniEulogy
(1) I have to put it out there, every game with OmniEulogy, I have pushed for his lynch at some stage in the game.
I rate OmniEulogy high enough to be a scum mastermind. Heck last game he even talked about wanting to play scum that way - something very rare for newbies. Therefore I think he took full advantage of the thread due to Trotske's opening about La Guerta being bad town.

(2)
With this information I decided to read through OmniEulogy filter. These are the snippets I find interesting.

His filter starts off rational, trying to be a voice of reason. I think this is not hard for a scum or mafia to do however (its easy enough to copy/paste other posts) its about whether you follow through.
e.g. of Omni sound reassoning posts
+ Show Spoiler +
On January 13 2013 03:55 OmniEulogy wrote:
@Bringaniga you are going to make this game enjoyable I can tell. I already enjoy your posts and I look forward to more. lol

Anyway just to touch on what has happened so far, I agree with Oats opinion on the lurkers, not on how Mocsta asked the question. If anybody really said yes/no to that question they would be pressured for it, possibly used as a reason to be voted on later in D1. It would be a silly thing for town to do, almost as silly as not answering the questions.

I think having people explain the reasoning behind their votes is fantastic but I don't think it goes far enough, I believe we should go through each others cases and not only agree/disagree but see if we can prove the case right or wrong ourselves while waiting for the defense of the person being accused. (it is important to wait for them to defend themselves first, otherwise we give them an escape with no effort on their part) I know this is done to some degree each time a case is made but in both of my last games we've made the mistake of lynching townies due to their arguments not standing up to one persons case. I'm hoping we can avoid that if everybody weighs in with not only their own case but their thoughts on the other cases as well.

It's a lot of extra effort but I believe it's a good way to discuss scum reads with each other and keep conversation strongly focused on scum hunting. I've got an event going on in roughly 4~ hours and I'll be busy for most of the night (cleaning up the house for it right now) so I'll periodically check in and hopefully be able to make some cases by the end of the night.

Also if we could have Mandalor, Shz, Acid, Glurio, and Bringaniga answer at least one of the questions asked it would be nice. Let us know you are alive guys


+ Show Spoiler +
On January 13 2013 18:47 OmniEulogy wrote:
Thanks Mocsta and yeah, I share your opinion on reads for people. I assume everybody is scum and let them prove that they are town. I know I am town, this isn't a soft call, I am a townie. I know I'll have to prove it, and although my first medium sized post is a null read, I hope that with time and my future actions it will prove to everybody that I am town because I'm hoping that if we use my advice we will be able to hunt and catch scum easier. I have a soft town read on you because I know your meta, and I'm not sure if you would be as comfortable as you normally are leading conversation early on as scum and talking about your pool. Some people get very nervous when they are scum. We've had several in our games who didn't post as much as they normally do.

On the other side we have Oats as an example who posts an average amount in both roles. However his play style (now that I've read through his filter for XXXII) changes a little. Experience changes everything though but there are some similarities between his XXXII game and what he has done this time, and very little in his other games that I read through. Again not enough for me to vote for him but it's not a good sign either. I'm hoping some of our lurkers can weigh in, and if Bringaniga doesn't come up with anything by the lynch deadline, my current thoughts of him will turn to scum pretending to be active and I'll be pushing for his lynching over the current Oats for sure.

He then enters the fray and tries to break up Me and Oatsmaster (Shz did too)... I actually read this as null
Last game, scum tried to break up Me and Spaghetticus.. its actually an easy way to get town cred, so the action in itself does not indicate town motives (even though it helps town).

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 13 2013 22:22 OmniEulogy wrote:
Alright, I just got a call in from work ##Vote: Acid~ This is NOT what I intended to do. Under normal circumstances I would have put this at the end of my case on who ever I would have made it on. I might have to work a double shift and if I do, I won't be back in time, I don't want my random vote to be a deciding factor in a lynch and therefore have effectively wasted my vote. I do have access to a computer but on the off chance I can't log in on it I had to vote to make sure I wasn't going to be modkilled. I probably wont have to work the double but just in case. Sorry about this guys.
He then votes a lurker and gives the excuse of real life. Whilst I can not question his real life issues, i did question why he didnt just vote no lynch. Either way, I take this as null as well.

So far Omni play has been safe. Nothing indicates he is scum; but nothing is screaming pro-town either. I do notice in general his approach is a bit different. But that is because I have played 2 games in a row with him. The question is.. is he different intentionally due to improving town game... or because he finally rolled scum.

Continuing On
He does a defense on Mandalor (I dont remember anyone else but Omni saying it was wrong; even Oatsmaster at one stage voted Mandalor - I *think* after my case too).. As a scum OmniEulogy.. of course he can defend Mandalor, he KNOWS he is town. Read: slightly scum (because no1 else called me out of line for the case)

He then swaps to Shz, who was flying under the radar. Again an easy vote to do, with no real repercussions. Read: Null

Things get interesting when La Guerta is caught in the lie. OmniEulogy is the one who pounces on this immediately (conveniently)
On January 14 2013 09:06 OmniEulogy wrote:
##Vote: Laguerta He's already lied, has not contributed at all and now that I think about it, he goes from calling Bringaniga town, to voting on him with no posts between the two. He didn't answer my questions to why he voted for him OR why we shouldn't lynch him very well at all... Anybody have any reasons for why we shouldn't lynch him?

I think this was a way to do two objectives
(1) Create disarray in town atmosphere due to La Guerta weirdness
&
(2) Establish town cred for OmniEulogy picking scum first round.. a rare feat to achieve.

From here Oatsmaster asked to consolidate votes, and we ended up with 7 votes on La Guerta, an essential certainty for lynch.

The Long-Con
On January 14 2013 07:03 OmniEulogy wrote:
ugh I can't tell if that's just brutal honesty or extremely scummy.

@Laguerta why should we NOT vote to lynch you in 2 hours?

This is where I think OmniEulogy sowed the seeds for someone like Trotske or whoever to develop further. and indeed Trotske did.
In hindsight with the Acid~ case, you could even contest Trotske is mafia and used this seed to develop the idea for the rest of town.

What eventuated was Inception.,. i.e. Omni/zarepath/Oats started discussing the concept that La Guerta was bad town, and then used the excuse of "no opposition to the lynch" to justify moving off La Guerta.

I treat OmniEulogy as the instigator for this entire action based on the above. I don't think they knew it was guaranteed to happen but were to prepared to adapt with it on the fly.

Then here is some really nice interplay .. seeing that there is uncertainty with La Guerta
On January 14 2013 10:35 OmniEulogy wrote:
If Laguerta is scum, I must admit there is a lack of anybody trying to save him... would scum bus themselves D1? That's suicidal. The fact that nobody has even tried to push strongly for another lynch worries me a little bit...

This only creates more uncertainty in the chaotic environment.

Now that the bait has taken off.. Omni is trying really hard to hook the fish and int he process save La Guerta.
On January 14 2013 12:25 OmniEulogy wrote:
Honestly he has just as good a chance as flipping scum as Laguerta imo. The only difference is that I can't just put Zebezt in the "bad townie" category for every single post he's made.
On January 14 2013 12:29 OmniEulogy wrote:
I think the bigger thing at the moment is that even if the three of us, Mocsta, Oats, and myself all switch to another person who already has a vote on them, it won't be enough to stop Laguerta from being lynched. I can only see this as Mafia being FINE with Laguerta being lynched today. If we don't have another person on the Laguerta wagon active I think we might be lynching him no matter what.

More rallying for people to get off La Guerta.

Now that he has achieved his goal and people are dispersed again (as indicated in the Preface).. he turns on the guy he has been working with this whole time...
On January 14 2013 12:56 OmniEulogy wrote:
##Vote: Oatsmaster

I don't like the constant vote jumping. Or pulling off Laguerta after jumping around so much. It makes me think you know who the townies are and have been testing to see which wagon sticks. That confidence in nailing Zebezt is bothering me too... I'm biased with my thinking past thing point. Don't wanna screw with anybody else I'll explain it after the lynch.

This is such a clever vote. He set up Oats to do the vote jumping, and then votes for him.. clearing him of any direct association to LA Guerta at that point in time (including flipping).

He then writes a massive post on Oats, again detailing the vote jumping that him and Oats worked together on.

To me, oats was screaming town by the end of Day 1.. i even wrote this in my last will to leave him alone... why would scum go out of their way to pressure so many targets? They wouldnt, its too risky... I think Omni achieved more from teh long-con than they imagined all due to persistance.

Look at the contributions post Day 1.. He follows up on Oats once or twice (again.. screaming town.. why would you do this).. and then doesnt post anymore.
He has stated real life problems, I wont treat that as not true... but regardless.. the contributions in Night1 were useless.

Conveniently when I am in the firing range.. all he does is perturb Oats !!

In Summary.. the concept to free La Guerta resulted in:
  • Created chaotic lynch environment
  • Received free assocation pass if La Guerta lynched
  • Set up Oats for a case (even though didn't stick)
  • Gave him an opportunity to concentrate on Oats, and not aid town any further
  • Got a townie lynched, which put huge pressure on myself.. Win-Win for scum...



Summary:
My scum read (open Delving deeper to find out name)
  • has contributed at the start and received a null to slight town read, and then began to fade (rapidly post Night 1).
  • This person was particularly involved with the chaos of the Day1 lynch, and I think pulled the strings that led to La Guerta being voted off. (to establish town cred)
  • and then when the opportunity came to save La Guerta this person pulled the strings once again. - all amidst the chaotic day 1 lynch environment

In short, I think scum used La Guerta to create a chaotic environment.. and took a chance with inception.. and managed to save La Guerta to keep numbers healthy (even though it was not a required part of the plan)

Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 15:32 GMT
#725
##Vote: OmniEulogy

P.S. I know the case makes a lot of assumptions. I recognise that. But I really think i am onto something here.

Sometimes you have to take a risk, especially when the town environment is SO lurky.

Either way, share your votes
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 15:35 GMT
#726
EBWOP

Share you critique (and votes if you agree)
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 16:00 GMT
#728
You have to remember.. when i started this case.. the replacement wasnt due in.

And it took a fuckn long time to type it up.

Its midnight and Im exhausted.. Im happy to lead discussion with La Guerta, or whoever the replacement name is.. but not right now, im struggling to stay awake.



In short.. due to time restraints.. if La Guerta isnt lynched tonight, I am happy with Trotske.. I already commented on Acid case and didnt see many flaws.
Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 21:57 GMT
#750
That was indeed a turn of events.. I did say the case would be controversial.

Firstly, whether you believe me, I am town. But I know from past experience these claims last minute are always ignored.


I have not had a full chance to review the cases against me.. but I have seen a few comments saying my summary of the chaos is ?wrong? and that OmniEulogy can't be scum.

Well whether you OmniEulogy is correct, Im sure on La Guerta, and I thought the points behind the chaos were correct.
##unvote: OmniEulogy

Its 2hrs to lynch time, and I with transport I have 10min of computer time before the lynch.. so what im saying is, I can read the cases, but will not have a genuine opportunity to defend. You are free to take that as bullshit if you want but it is 5:53am right now. Your call.


Therefore, as it seems I am going down, I am thinking of what I can say to best help town.
i still think La Guerta is scum... most of you werent in the last game, however my reasoning actually does make sense. ironically I think OmniEulogy would agree if he was here to comment.

I would have preferred to question him first before voting ( La Guerta), I think that is a courtesy that applies to anyone. In my post i did say La Guerta is my prime read, and needs to pressure heavily. How can we do this when he gets added in 6hrs before lynch and has to read the thread?

So please night 1, please pressure the FUCK out of La Guerta. If the consensus is that my contributions are minimal, at least my flip should give the incentive you need. So lead with a vote, make him work to prove himself to you.



I said Trotske case before looked solid, and he is even around for my inception concept.

I am going to put my vote his way; I also like how he has barely contributed and then kicks me in the guts when everyone else does.(A first from him this game.. but at a time when his balls are on the line) I usually attribute that to scum play.

P.S. look how heavily he defends La Guerta in my case..he even adds. I think your case on Omni might be stronger if you didnt vote La Guerta. The general feedback I got was that there was no case on Omni.. so this is an interesting comment.

This guy has gone out of this way to protect La Guerta.. even now in Day 2.. Maybe I was wrong with Omni.. but for this type of protection, there must be a relationship.I cant make sense of it any other way.


##Vote: Trotske

Mocsta
Profile Joined December 2012
Australia9388 Posts
January 16 2013 23:12 GMT
#772
On phone.

Im not swapping votes. Trotske has proved to me he is scum by his recent actions.

Odd that he always defends la guerta. Odd that he suddenly has doubled his post count. If he could oost this much now. Why not contribute before.

He has seen a window to be a lynchpin in taking me out. Thats why... I cant quote on phone. Too hard.
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