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On January 18 2013 01:17 zarepath wrote:
You say Mocsta wouldn't have been lynched because all 4 mafia would have voted for Trotske? That would look mighty suspicious, but it would save a Godfather. I can understand that. My first game of mafia had 4 mafia out of 13 people, so I still think it' s a possibility (although I concede that 3 mafia seems much more likely.)
I don't know how the three possibilities are 6-2 or 4-2-1 (or 5-1-1)... those don't add up. I think the strongest possibility is 6-2 right now, with a possibility for 5-3.
If we have an SK in the game and he kills tonight, then it's 4-2-1 or 5-1-1
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If there were 4 mafia then last night they would all vote some random (say, zebezt who has been under some amount of suspicion since Day 1 when Oats called him scum) then NK a townie tonight and GG they win.
Therefore, there were 3 mafia and there are now 2. Serial killer is a possibility that will be most likely revealed tonight.
I'll reiterate this later but I'd like to get it out there now
All players will be expected to make roleclaims tonight/first thing Day 3, and if you claim blue you will be expected to outline your N1 AND N2 actions. This will help identify any conflicting claims etc. I expect the D3 lynch to seal the fate of the scumteam, and as such we need *all* the information. Ideally post your info immediately pre-deadline so that you can't get hit by scum tonight, then scum will only have 1 "revenge NK" before we win.
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I should think that me being Mocsta's #1 scum target during N1, when he thinks he has control of town, in addition to his constant following-up on his case of me with multiple other people during D2, should clear me.
Note that Spag was one of the only people to really back Mocsta's case on me, and while he did so, he defended Mocsta from Sn0: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=391615¤tpage=35#698
You're entitled to thinking my N2 contributions are scummy, but it's still a lot more helpful of a contribution than over half of town has contributed over N2. My reads are more of myself thinking out loud trying to reason things through -- it's true they're hypothetical, but they outline each possibility and illustrate why I think each person is worth scrutiny.
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On January 17 2013 09:19 thrawn2112 wrote:I am looking into this.
Once D3 starts, anyone who leaves the game for any reason (legitimate or modkill) will be instantly modkilled/flipped. No more replacements after that point.
Any updates? or a better question, will we know what is happening to OmniEulogy a decent amount of time before the D3 post? I'd like to hear at least 2 hours in advance of the D3 post if there won't be any replacement. Thanks!
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I'll give an update in the D3 post.
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On January 18 2013 01:49 zarepath wrote:
I should think that me being Mocsta's #1 scum target during N1, when he thinks he has control of town, in addition to his constant following-up on his case of me with multiple other people during D2, should clear me.
It does not. The only person who is cleared in my mind is the person that scum actively tried to lynch d2. Mocsta played a good game as GF so I do not doubt that he included his own teammates in his bullshit cases.
The fact that he gave an almost positive town read on you later in the day definitely does not clear you.
Noted, and this will definitely factor in my case on Spag.
You're entitled to thinking my N2 contributions are scummy, but it's still a lot more helpful of a contribution than over half of town has contributed over N2. My reads are more of myself thinking out loud trying to reason things through -- it's true they're hypothetical, but they outline each possibility and illustrate why I think each person is worth scrutiny.
I haven't reviewed your filter in detail yet, but I will get to it.
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On January 18 2013 00:57 Acid~ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 00:36 zebezt wrote:
I'm sorry Acid,
regarding your point:
It seems farfetched to me, but is possible.
However if you also consider that Mocsta in D2 said he was 100% sure that Laguerta was scum, yet he would not vote for him, then it makes less sense.
The move you linked to was aimed at making the person doing look like town. When Mocsta named Laguerta scum but did not vote for him, this made Mocsta look scummy.
My reasoning is actually quite simple. It would be farfetched if everyone in this game was in fact a newbie and we did not have coaches. However, that isn't the case. Also, while I believe this was their plan at the start, I think they saw a juicier plan on day 2 which would both lynch a townie, discredit me and clear Mocsta by association. Aside from Sn0_Man who made his own case, the Trotske voters all cited my case against him as the reason for their vote. Yet, as you know, I did not vote for Trotske in my own case. I think that scum saw an opportunity there to make me appear scummy: I post a case but don't vote, others vote, Trotske flips town - who looks scummy now? Making me appear scummy discredits my case on Mocsta by association and it's Christmas in scumland with no one left to oppose Mocsta's endgame play. Simple, efficient. You know what *is* farfetched? The ridiculous notion that scum would double-bus on day 2 after orchestrating a double-mislynch on day 1. They had no reason to bus, let alone double-bus. Especially since I'm the one who pulled the trigger on Mocsta. If you say that scum double-bussed d2 then you need to make a solid case against me since I voted for Mocsta first and originated the case against Trotske.
I'm not quite sure I follow what you mean with double bus? Was that aimed at me? I have no beef with you. I just want Jacob voted off.
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On January 18 2013 02:54 zebezt wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 00:57 Acid~ wrote:On January 18 2013 00:36 zebezt wrote:
I'm sorry Acid,
regarding your point:
It seems farfetched to me, but is possible.
However if you also consider that Mocsta in D2 said he was 100% sure that Laguerta was scum, yet he would not vote for him, then it makes less sense.
The move you linked to was aimed at making the person doing look like town. When Mocsta named Laguerta scum but did not vote for him, this made Mocsta look scummy.
My reasoning is actually quite simple. It would be farfetched if everyone in this game was in fact a newbie and we did not have coaches. However, that isn't the case. Also, while I believe this was their plan at the start, I think they saw a juicier plan on day 2 which would both lynch a townie, discredit me and clear Mocsta by association. Aside from Sn0_Man who made his own case, the Trotske voters all cited my case against him as the reason for their vote. Yet, as you know, I did not vote for Trotske in my own case. I think that scum saw an opportunity there to make me appear scummy: I post a case but don't vote, others vote, Trotske flips town - who looks scummy now? Making me appear scummy discredits my case on Mocsta by association and it's Christmas in scumland with no one left to oppose Mocsta's endgame play. Simple, efficient. You know what *is* farfetched? The ridiculous notion that scum would double-bus on day 2 after orchestrating a double-mislynch on day 1. They had no reason to bus, let alone double-bus. Especially since I'm the one who pulled the trigger on Mocsta. If you say that scum double-bussed d2 then you need to make a solid case against me since I voted for Mocsta first and originated the case against Trotske. I'm not quite sure I follow what you mean with double bus? Was that aimed at me? I have no beef with you. I just want Jacob voted off.
No, forget about the double-bus thing. Just make a real case on Jacob if you want him lynched. Not a case on laguerta. A case on Jacob. You can't analyze laguerta's play because there is no way to know if he was trolling/bored/scum.
Make a real case on Jacob and we will discuss it.
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Pro tip: Jacob (or JSL, or whatever u wanna call him) is *not* scum. If he was scum he'd vote Trotske to save Mocsta. He was obviously around at lynch deadline.
I find it unlikely that much "busdriving" (aka scum leading a lynch vs scum) will occur when its quite clear mafia could have secured a mislynch D2 (with 3 horses at 2 votes each, mafia *have* to be able to get that mislynch). After that mislynch mafia need to confuse exactly 1 townie to win the game the next day so... Plus its a noob game.
I'm fairly certain that one of the guys on trotske is scum (voting with mocsta), and the other scum is either
A) the other guy on trotske (duh)
or
B) somebody not here at lynch deadline (OE, zebezt)
If I'm wrong, I feel like thrawn would have grounds to modkill scum for playing against win-con (unless the 2 remaining scum agreed with each other... even then I don't think bussing Mocsta is playing to your win con).
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On January 18 2013 03:52 Sn0_Man wrote:
Pro tip: Jacob (or JSL, or whatever u wanna call him) is *not* scum. If he was scum he'd vote Trotske to save Mocsta. He was obviously around at lynch deadline.
I find it unlikely that much "busdriving" (aka scum leading a lynch vs scum) will occur when its quite clear mafia could have secured a mislynch D2 (with 3 horses at 2 votes each, mafia *have* to be able to get that mislynch). After that mislynch mafia need to confuse exactly 1 townie to win the game the next day so... Plus its a noob game.
I'm fairly certain that one of the guys on trotske is scum (voting with mocsta), and the other scum is either
A) the other guy on trotske (duh)
or
B) somebody not here at lynch deadline (OE, zebezt)
If I'm wrong, I feel like thrawn would have grounds to modkill scum for playing against win-con (unless the 2 remaining scum agreed with each other... even then I don't think bussing Mocsta is playing to your win con).
What about when I flip town and Bam all of a sudden Acid's case vs mocsta is looking really good becasue then he would have led the lynch on me and hammered the first lynch, The mafia team might have looked at him as a liability going forward. I don't think you can rule JSL out just because he didn't vote for me. He didn't vote for anybody which might actually be a little scummy.
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On January 18 2013 04:02 Trotske wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 03:52 Sn0_Man wrote:
Pro tip: Jacob (or JSL, or whatever u wanna call him) is *not* scum. If he was scum he'd vote Trotske to save Mocsta. He was obviously around at lynch deadline.
I find it unlikely that much "busdriving" (aka scum leading a lynch vs scum) will occur when its quite clear mafia could have secured a mislynch D2 (with 3 horses at 2 votes each, mafia *have* to be able to get that mislynch). After that mislynch mafia need to confuse exactly 1 townie to win the game the next day so... Plus its a noob game.
I'm fairly certain that one of the guys on trotske is scum (voting with mocsta), and the other scum is either
A) the other guy on trotske (duh)
or
B) somebody not here at lynch deadline (OE, zebezt)
If I'm wrong, I feel like thrawn would have grounds to modkill scum for playing against win-con (unless the 2 remaining scum agreed with each other... even then I don't think bussing Mocsta is playing to your win con). What about when I flip town and Bam all of a sudden Acid's case vs mocsta is looking really good becasue then he would have led the lynch on me and hammered the first lynch, The mafia team might have looked at him as a liability going forward. I don't think you can rule JSL out just because he didn't vote for me. He didn't vote for anybody which might actually be a little scummy.
That assumes that Acid is driving the bus on Mocsta, and I don't think that mafia would want to bus their Godfather; they would rather give Mocsta credibility by having him bus Acid and then get role-checked. And that all assumes that Acid is mafia in the first place, and I don't find a strong argument for that in his filter.
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On January 18 2013 04:02 Trotske wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 03:52 Sn0_Man wrote:
Pro tip: Jacob (or JSL, or whatever u wanna call him) is *not* scum. If he was scum he'd vote Trotske to save Mocsta. He was obviously around at lynch deadline.
I find it unlikely that much "busdriving" (aka scum leading a lynch vs scum) will occur when its quite clear mafia could have secured a mislynch D2 (with 3 horses at 2 votes each, mafia *have* to be able to get that mislynch). After that mislynch mafia need to confuse exactly 1 townie to win the game the next day so... Plus its a noob game.
I'm fairly certain that one of the guys on trotske is scum (voting with mocsta), and the other scum is either
A) the other guy on trotske (duh)
or
B) somebody not here at lynch deadline (OE, zebezt)
If I'm wrong, I feel like thrawn would have grounds to modkill scum for playing against win-con (unless the 2 remaining scum agreed with each other... even then I don't think bussing Mocsta is playing to your win con). What about when I flip town and Bam all of a sudden Acid's case vs mocsta is looking really good becasue then he would have led the lynch on me and hammered the first lynch, The mafia team might have looked at him as a liability going forward. I don't think you can rule JSL out just because he didn't vote for me. He didn't vote for anybody which might actually be a little scummy.
You defend laguerta to the hilt when everybody else things he is scummy, then he gets subbed out for JSL and all of a sudden JSL is scummy? Not sure I get that.
Fortunately for you, every argument that I can make for JSL being town applies to you as well. I *still* want to lynch you but I know you are town.
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On January 18 2013 03:52 Sn0_Man wrote:
Pro tip: Jacob (or JSL, or whatever u wanna call him) is *not* scum. If he was scum he'd vote Trotske to save Mocsta. He was obviously around at lynch deadline.
I find it unlikely that much "busdriving" (aka scum leading a lynch vs scum) will occur when its quite clear mafia could have secured a mislynch D2 (with 3 horses at 2 votes each, mafia *have* to be able to get that mislynch). After that mislynch mafia need to confuse exactly 1 townie to win the game the next day so... Plus its a noob game.
I'm fairly certain that one of the guys on trotske is scum (voting with mocsta), and the other scum is either
A) the other guy on trotske (duh)
or
B) somebody not here at lynch deadline (OE, zebezt)
If I'm wrong, I feel like thrawn would have grounds to modkill scum for playing against win-con (unless the 2 remaining scum agreed with each other... even then I don't think bussing Mocsta is playing to your win con).
I am still convinced he is.
He probably thought Mocsta was safe because Trotske had a vote lead and even after you switched to Mocsta Trotske was still set to be lynched. Only at 1 minute before deadline did shz switch.
Voting no lynch was extra scummy imo. Trying not to make any enemies. Even now Jacob has not made a single good contribution.
I think the lie by Laguerta is not 100% damning because of the smurfing, but if he was just trolling, this was the unfunniest troll ever.
Mocsta's voting behaviour regarding Laguerta/Jacob still stands too.
I'm still open to other options, but there is nobody with more evidence stacked against them.
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On January 18 2013 04:24 zebezt wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 03:52 Sn0_Man wrote:
Pro tip: Jacob (or JSL, or whatever u wanna call him) is *not* scum. If he was scum he'd vote Trotske to save Mocsta. He was obviously around at lynch deadline.
I find it unlikely that much "busdriving" (aka scum leading a lynch vs scum) will occur when its quite clear mafia could have secured a mislynch D2 (with 3 horses at 2 votes each, mafia *have* to be able to get that mislynch). After that mislynch mafia need to confuse exactly 1 townie to win the game the next day so... Plus its a noob game.
I'm fairly certain that one of the guys on trotske is scum (voting with mocsta), and the other scum is either
A) the other guy on trotske (duh)
or
B) somebody not here at lynch deadline (OE, zebezt)
If I'm wrong, I feel like thrawn would have grounds to modkill scum for playing against win-con (unless the 2 remaining scum agreed with each other... even then I don't think bussing Mocsta is playing to your win con). I am still convinced he is. He probably thought Mocsta was safe because Trotske had a vote lead and even after you switched to Mocsta Trotske was still set to be lynched. Only at 1 minute before deadline did shz switch. Voting no lynch was extra scummy imo. Trying not to make any enemies. Even now Jacob has not made a single good contribution. I think the lie by Laguerta is not 100% damning because of the smurfing, but if he was just trolling, this was the unfunniest troll ever. Mocsta's voting behaviour regarding Laguerta/Jacob still stands too. I'm still open to other options, but there is nobody with more evidence stacked against them.
Spag switched his vote at the last minute when it was clear Mocsta was in danger for spurious reasons and has far more of a filter of evidence defending Mocsta. Jacob hardly has a filter; how can he have more evidence stacked against him than anyone else?
As Acid said, voting no lynch was anti-mafia; mafia could have saved the Godfather by voting for Trotske, a fairly justifiable vote that was easy to bandwagon onto.
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On January 18 2013 04:18 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 04:02 Trotske wrote:On January 18 2013 03:52 Sn0_Man wrote:
Pro tip: Jacob (or JSL, or whatever u wanna call him) is *not* scum. If he was scum he'd vote Trotske to save Mocsta. He was obviously around at lynch deadline.
I find it unlikely that much "busdriving" (aka scum leading a lynch vs scum) will occur when its quite clear mafia could have secured a mislynch D2 (with 3 horses at 2 votes each, mafia *have* to be able to get that mislynch). After that mislynch mafia need to confuse exactly 1 townie to win the game the next day so... Plus its a noob game.
I'm fairly certain that one of the guys on trotske is scum (voting with mocsta), and the other scum is either
A) the other guy on trotske (duh)
or
B) somebody not here at lynch deadline (OE, zebezt)
If I'm wrong, I feel like thrawn would have grounds to modkill scum for playing against win-con (unless the 2 remaining scum agreed with each other... even then I don't think bussing Mocsta is playing to your win con). What about when I flip town and Bam all of a sudden Acid's case vs mocsta is looking really good becasue then he would have led the lynch on me and hammered the first lynch, The mafia team might have looked at him as a liability going forward. I don't think you can rule JSL out just because he didn't vote for me. He didn't vote for anybody which might actually be a little scummy. You defend laguerta to the hilt when everybody else things he is scummy, then he gets subbed out for JSL and all of a sudden JSL is scummy? Not sure I get that. Fortunately for you, every argument that I can make for JSL being town applies to you as well. I *still* want to lynch you but I know you are town.
That post was actually defending JSL but feel free to draw any conclusion you want from anything I say.
On January 18 2013 04:15 zarepath wrote:Show nested quote +On January 18 2013 04:02 Trotske wrote:On January 18 2013 03:52 Sn0_Man wrote:
Pro tip: Jacob (or JSL, or whatever u wanna call him) is *not* scum. If he was scum he'd vote Trotske to save Mocsta. He was obviously around at lynch deadline.
I find it unlikely that much "busdriving" (aka scum leading a lynch vs scum) will occur when its quite clear mafia could have secured a mislynch D2 (with 3 horses at 2 votes each, mafia *have* to be able to get that mislynch). After that mislynch mafia need to confuse exactly 1 townie to win the game the next day so... Plus its a noob game.
I'm fairly certain that one of the guys on trotske is scum (voting with mocsta), and the other scum is either
A) the other guy on trotske (duh)
or
B) somebody not here at lynch deadline (OE, zebezt)
If I'm wrong, I feel like thrawn would have grounds to modkill scum for playing against win-con (unless the 2 remaining scum agreed with each other... even then I don't think bussing Mocsta is playing to your win con). What about when I flip town and Bam all of a sudden Acid's case vs mocsta is looking really good becasue then he would have led the lynch on me and hammered the first lynch, The mafia team might have looked at him as a liability going forward. I don't think you can rule JSL out just because he didn't vote for me. He didn't vote for anybody which might actually be a little scummy. That assumes that Acid is driving the bus on Mocsta, and I don't think that mafia would want to bus their Godfather; they would rather give Mocsta credibility by having him bus Acid and then get role-checked. And that all assumes that Acid is mafia in the first place, and I don't find a strong argument for that in his filter.
Sorry I messed up in my post, I bolded it meant to say mocsta not he looking like I was referring to Acid when I Wasn't.
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Sorry, what did you mean to say, then? I'm confused now.
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Every time trotske opens his mouth I want to lynch him more. And yet I'm way too sure he is town (by vote logic). FML.
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On January 18 2013 05:19 zarepath wrote:
Sorry, what did you mean to say, then? I'm confused now.
What I Was trying to say was that your townie claim on JSL is not as solid as your posts seems to make clear you think it is.
Your reasoning is that he could have voted me and saving his scum mate, but by doing so when I showed up townie the biggest case that was around was on mocsta after I was lynched aka he is next in line of fire even more so since he was pushing for my mislynch. So by hammering me JSL not only would kill mocsta next lynch in the process but would also be under more scrutiny form hammering me.
I am not trying to say he is scum just that he is not a confirmed townie like your post said.
does that make more sense than my other post?
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Yes, it does, but the thing is if we mislynched last night we're looking at 6-3 going into N2, they get a kill and it's 5-3, and all they need is a single mislynch D3 to win. So I still think if JSL were mafia he would have done all he could to prevent a Mocsta flip, even if that meant Mocsta came under scrutiny tomorrow, because all they'd need is one more mislynch to win.
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Lots more sense but I'm still pretty sure you are wrong.
Lets say JSL and Mocsta were scum.
A) who is #3?
B) Why would JSL not vote to save himself day 1 (I guess moc promises to save him in scum QT?) and save mocsta day 2? (Admittedly a smurf *may* be suicidal but that seems weird).
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EPT
