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On February 04 2013 09:42 Aperture Science wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2013 09:41 Stutters695 wrote:
Novas most recent posting stood out to me. He mentions he won't do more on the two he's already mentioned but his next dcumread is you, but instead of why, he just doesn't know how to feel about you.
you as in AS. again were getting more skirtingthe questions. How do you feel about Nova and Rockhydra stutters?
I'm still not sold on you being town, but if you are town Nova is definitely my next in line. Tomorrow I actually have a break in my hectic schedule for a few hours so I'm going to be doing some detailed analysis. I haven't given rock much of a look the past turn so my view is obsolete, but from what I noticed he has been wishy washy but when they took stands it felt town. Of course reading closer might change that but at current my attack will be going to either you or Nova.
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Poster: depending on what I drop my next three turns look.like this depending on the path. Depending on draws and board status the DoD path can turn lethal t5 with infect.
today: 2(DoD) or 3(gaeas anthem, bear drop)
t4: 4 (dod, gaeas, bear drop) or 6
t5: 8 (2 bears, gaeas, DoD) or 6
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On February 04 2013 11:50 Aperture Science wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2013 11:48 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:On February 04 2013 11:40 Aperture Science wrote:On February 04 2013 11:24 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:On February 04 2013 11:23 Aperture Science wrote:On February 04 2013 11:11 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:
iGrok looks pretty scummy, just browsing through his meta. iGrok tends not to do large, 'formalised' cases as town, as far as I can see. It's more shorter posts, interacting with town, being involved; the opposite of here.
I came across one large, formal case, and it was in a game where iGrok was godfather. You should read Experiment II then rofl I couldn't work out who you were :p Pink2 eh, you made a long analysis on someone to say they're town ;p you still think stutters is mafia? Yes. GreY and I both think he's scum. I don't really find Rock scummy, but GreY thinks its Stutters or Rock
Any response to how your scummiest points against me were all out of contex ?
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Not sure if you're just looking for his opinion or in general but I'd put Nova ahead of Rock personally.
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On February 04 2013 15:47 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
It won't work if we don't have the necessary KP, so people should get claiming it (I'm missing Rock, Suck, Stutters and Aperture)
I said it. It depends if 2kp or 3kp makes a difference. If not, and there is a decent chance of living to turn five my deck develops much better with a door of Destiny drop today (2kp, 4next turn, lethal with infect turn after, then between 8-15 depending on when I get another bear drop).
However unless I will make it two turns from this one, the better play is to skip door of destinies and play the bear and Gaeas Anthem (3kp this turn, 6 next at the sacrifice of 1kp/bear permanently).
Currently I'm leaning towards the former because we still have a lot of power on the board but that'll drop as the Mafia creature gets more powerful and starts one shotting people we lose power quick.
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That said, if that combined 3kp would make a difference over the turns in between I don't mind doing it that way
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On February 04 2013 15:02 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
So yeah, I'm going to sleep soon
You guys better state what you want to do with all the leftover KP: Flip 1 guy, flip 2 guys, or let everybody attack whoever they think is scum
If you choose "Flip 1 guy", tell us who you want that guy to be, or thoughts about it
If you choose "Flip 2 guys", tell us the 2 guys you want dead, why, and which one is likelier to flip scum than the other in your mind, etc.
If you choose "Let everybody attack", then tell us why, and why it is better than the previous 2 options.
I want to flip 2 guys. I think it has higher chances of winning the game now. If we suck and derp and kill 2 townies, then it would indeed "accelerate" the game, but at least the scum beast would have less impact on it. Basically, this being a double-lynch.
A double-lynch misslynch, followed by scum KP, is better than a misslynch followed by scum KP followed by misslynch followed by scum KP.
Hint hint: There is 1 less scum KP in there.
Prome wants to flip a guy as well, dunno if he wants 2 or 1, I'll discuss it with him.
If we flip 2 guys I want Aperture to be one of them. I have a slight feeling he may flip town, thus wanting to flip a 2nd guy.
We are having doubts about this 2nd guy, but me and Prome are discussing about it
I hope you guys discuss it as well
Brought to you by the Promethelax & gonzaw Administration of Scum Hunting Affairs, LTD.
I'm going to bed but I'm leaning double lynch. My two would be aperture and nova for reasons previously stated.
The only reason I'm not 100% for it yet is the hurting of our own KP. Attacking whoever is out of the question because it would probably put multiple people in 1hit of the scum monster. I don't think town will actually lose that much though from Nova and Aperture currently though so I think a double its better than single. I just need to go over the math to make sure.
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On February 04 2013 23:53 Clockwork Hydra wrote:
Possibilities of terrible terrible damage:
Clockwork: minimum of 12.
Poster: 11
Rock: 7
Stutters: 3
Nova: 4?
Suck: 0
AS: 0
Total: 37. This is enough to kill AS and Suck assuming there is no life-gaining and Xfire doesn't fuck us over. Assuming SnB is a douche and uses his enchantress thingy to block, there is a total of 35 damage dealt. This is still enough to kill both.
General mtg advice:
@Stutters: by playing Gaea's Anthem and a bear now, you not only get +1 damage this turn, but +2 next turn. This game has probably ended by then. Also, you have no land at all in your hand?
@Rock: you can attack anybody you like with your Phyrexian thingy, so attack us: we won't block it. Then ninja in your giant beasty to do 5 damage to the target you actually want to kill.
@Nova: your creature pumping thing is an instant and can be cast in the attack phase. Phrase it conditionally to pump 2 creatures that are attacking and are not blocked.
Negative, got fucked harder than I thought by that d1 rng discard. If I had another mana I could door and bear today (3 today, 8 tomorrow) but I don't have a way to get a colorless/fetch a forest.
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Also if anyone has a way to transfer ownership of a creature to me tomorrow that is even a 1/1 I can turn lethal with my +1/+1 infect temple for a turn and use it at the town's wishes (I doubt anyone has that power but it's worth mentioning just in case)
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I can understand not trying to defend himself anymore since it is pretty much consensus that he's dying. Don't quite get his lack of pressuring any reads however. If he is going to flip town he should probably pursue his reads up to the flip. The silence makes me a bit more confident in him being scum but also worried he's going to have something game changing.
Rock do you honestly think I'm anywhere close to as scummy as Nova? What changed in the past 24 hours that made your list go from Nova, AS, me to AS, Nova=me?
CH I'm assuming you are the next town to go due to your board. Does my 3kp difference over two turns affect our killing potential over the next two days? Right now I don't see how it does and being able to be lethal myself forces either the scum to kill me or town has a free lynch when our kp starts to stagger.
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On February 05 2013 02:28 Clockwork Hydra wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2013 01:52 Stutters695 wrote:
I can understand not trying to defend himself anymore since it is pretty much consensus that he's dying. Don't quite get his lack of pressuring any reads however. If he is going to flip town he should probably pursue his reads up to the flip. The silence makes me a bit more confident in him being scum but also worried he's going to have something game changing.
Rock do you honestly think I'm anywhere close to as scummy as Nova? What changed in the past 24 hours that made your list go from Nova, AS, me to AS, Nova=me?
CH I'm assuming you are the next town to go due to your board. Does my 3kp difference over two turns affect our killing potential over the next two days? Right now I don't see how it does and being able to be lethal myself forces either the scum to kill me or town has a free lynch when our kp starts to stagger. Honestly, I think the game ends tomorrow (if it doesn't today). T5, if it happens at all (and we fucked up bigtime if it does), will have 2 townies and 1 scum alive. Mafia creature will be 16/16, so forget about a T6 happening. That means you come out 1 damage ahead if we include T5, if you go the Gaea's Anthem path. Moreover, Infect doesn't play nicely with other forms of damage (you need to do the 10 poison counters all by yourself, whereas everybody can chip in on bringing life total down). You're only lethal on your own if you can guarantee 10 damage regardless of blockers (trample obviously helps). However, 6 regular damage is almost certainly going to be more help than anything < 10 poison counters (even 9). /Acro
Well the infect thing would be all ten counters from me in one shot from two 5/5s. What I'm asking is mostly irrelevant to that anyway. I don't have to play triumph if my target can chump the damage out and not die. I want to know the town's opinions on if that 3kp over this turn and the next will affect our lynching ability. We're at 7 left, we kill AS and nova were at 5. mafia mob can't kill unless AS or Nova is the scum and does damage, or someone doesn't follow the town plan effectively outing themselves. Thus we don't lose enough kp to not kill tomorrow. Then we kill someone, mafia kills someone (I'd ssume you), and we're at 2-1. Given everyone will probably be sitting at between 10-15 that day having more kp is insanely better for town because if we get to 1-1 town would lose, at best tie (unless the last toothltown has crazy good instants). The door of Destiny route opens a lot more options if I pull a bear tomorrow (3 5/5s in 2-1situation) and I don't see where that KP would be relevant in the meantime.
This is all of course worst case scenario but if we don't hit worst case we've won anyway.
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I'll read that game, but I think AS is a better flip right now (before checking the meta). I'm really out of my element in terms of meta on hydras though.
I was thinking about the adding to towns KP thing but I saw it a little differently. A scum AS has nothing to lose.If he doesn't contribute to town kp, he's still dead this turn (the main question was who else should flip). If he does contribute he's still dead unless someone comes along and WIFOMs into thinking he must be town.
I could see a suck/AS double kill today, but if you're wrong and we leave AS alive his deck is probably packing some scary combos and that scares me.
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Anyway unless someone has a good reason to not go DoD I'll be dropping that at an hour to deadline (when I have to be at work, so I can make sure I get it.
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Anyway unless someone has a good reason to not go DoD I'll be dropping that at an hour to deadline (when I have to be at work, so I can make sure I get it in before the deadline.
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On February 05 2013 07:03 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
Anyways I could probably just sheep you Clock, I don't want to think that much >_>
When I over-think I tend to fuck town's chances of winning (e.g last MTG game, maybe iGrok's mini, etc) <_<
I do have a feeling we will hilariously fail this game....again
/G
Marv feels more likely to be town than aperture, but this case actually has me kind of concerned about CH. They've really been milking their Xf case hard for cred all game despite multiple people saying the same things, just without quotes.
This case also feels incredibly oportunistic. Why wait so late to post this case when we've been discussing a double kill all day.
Additionally the discussion with me about door vs anthem. He tells me to make the play that does less for town when town is going to be dropping kp incredibly fast for no reason other than that the game should be over before DoD really gets rolling despite saying in the same post that we have enough kp tokill them both either way. That doesn't sit well with me. I think an AS Suck kill today might be our best bet and if its still going after to look into taking out clock. If he is scum and we hit 2-1 with all his chumps we'd be completely fucked.
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On February 05 2013 07:58 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
Well, I agree with that Stutters.
Prome just told me that as well (he's been awake for 28 hours so won't post here just in case)
Kill Aperture and Suck today, and tomorrow (if both were town) focus on Nova and Rock.
I'd add that if there is a tomorrow (i.e both Aperture and Suck flip town), we just take a clean state and consider everybody as possible candidates, including Clock, just in case.
The thing about Clock is that he could have easily keep going against Suck on T1, and could have jumped on my case on Aperture like Suck did, but he just ignored both and decided to 100% kill Xfire
Unless they both planned for Xfire to out himself, then that doesn't make sense at all if he's scum.
There's also the fact that he's been active as shit, and maybe has scumhunted more than me this game. Also both heads are pretty active doing shit, not just 1 while the other one goes AFK or something (like Toad last game).
Also he was the first one that found Xfire and let his fury against him.
Those should count in his favor....right?
/G
Definitely in his favor but everything about this case feels opportunistic as shit. I also don't giveas much credit to staying on XFire because I'm a reasonably bad scumhunter (like I try, but my value until that gets better is more revolving around confirming myself to people) and I had XF pegged as scum. A bus might not have been the original intention but with how obvious XF was he wasn't living past d2 even if aperture was our d1 lynch. I would seriously consider busing there as they gain almost nothing from xf living an extra day but the town cred is huge.
The activity is huge though, my concern is more over if we think there is a chance he is scum we don't win 2v1 vs CH. He can just chump and lol while the mafia mob kills us. We need to decide if he's town and keep his kp or flip him tomorrow because if he survives and is scum we're boned.
If he was playing a deck like mine I wouldn't be nearly as concerned as we could take him in lylo easy, butthe horde aspect really worries me and is at least worth accounting for. Again not saying he's scum but we need to really take our time and come to a conclusion because it's probably game deciding.
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On February 05 2013 08:15 Clockwork Hydra wrote:We aren't town because we made a case on Xfire. We know he was acting super scummy and several people realized it. However, if you were to click on our filter and read a few of our posts, you would realize how much nonsense your allegation is. Also, we're not "milking the xfire case". We are trying to kill scum. PS. If you think "milking the xfire case" is scummy, we present scum Marv: Show nested quote +On February 01 2013 09:32 SuckMyTopdeck wrote:On February 01 2013 09:28 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
Anyways, we can go hunting for the remaining scum
Who here thinks Aperture isn't the remaining scum?
Also, who thinks that CH/me/Rock/Bin could possibly be scum in any way possible (regarding what's happening with Xfire and previous interactions)? Please raise your hand.
/G Well Nova looks much better now, I'm happy to get off my Burgler tunnel, even if it was the best thing ever. CH obviously looks much better compared to my previous list because of the Crossfire stuff. This obviously leaves a really large line where CH has moved up a lot as well as Nova, and Crossfire moved down. The first thing I did in this game was agree that Crossfire was scummy and attack Aperture. I'm totes an MTG master. And he never even made a case on Xfire, just non-committally "agreed" to it. Taking credit for a scum lynch when you didn't do jack shit for it? Hell yeah, sign scum Marv up (this scumtell was brought to you by Dandel Ion, the best Ion). /Acro
I'm 100% for an AS Marv flip. unless people present valid reasons why that shouldn't be the case I'm going to play the rest of the turn as they're town. If that's wrong, we win no harm done, but if they are town we shouldn't stifle discussion.
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The one thing everyone needs to agree on is whatever our attacks are, everyone needs to be on the same page and not attack freely. We don't want the mafia creature to kill anyone tonight.
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On February 05 2013 08:43 Clockwork Hydra wrote:How exactly is two days' time "too late" to post? I mean, sorry for not posting it on day 1? or what you want from us. Tell me what your actual problem is. Show nested quote +On February 05 2013 08:34 RockHydra wrote:On February 05 2013 07:11 (DontFear)ThePoster wrote:
Hopeless has been kind of absent lately as well (I think). I'd like his thoughts on this whole thing What exactly? Not killing AS now? Because that actually sounds completely reasonable, I prefer to WIFOM that dilemma into AS being town. That means I should want stutters and Nova based on my previous reads. I'm reconsidering stutters. He wants me to update my read on him and doesn't want to let me off the hook for what I've said. That feels townie to me. Based on the interaction between marv and acro, I'd prefer SuckMyTopDeck over AS for today's primary lynch target. I'm rereading Nova to see if I still want him as my second choice. One of the rare times my hydra-head and I manage to agree. I'm around for 10ish minutes and then headed out to dinner. I'll be catching up properly later tonight. ~Hopeless Why are you even thinking about that? >.< It's not about who you "should" want to lynch. Are your opinions so weak you have trouble remembering them? ~dandel
Again I'm not saying you're scum. Just that after we see the flips from today everyone needs to reevaluate because if you have been playing a great scum game, letting you live past the next turn would all but seal our fate. Your focus on this lynch compared to playing long term worries me.
The time thing I meant like hours before the attack phase your case on Marv came seemingly out of nowhere.
It's probably just paranoia but I felt it worth bringing up.
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EPT
