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Hero Mini Mafia - Page 11

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thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 17 2012 23:34 GMT
#2284
i wanna see if we can lynch hapa
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 17 2012 23:36 GMT
#2287
I'm in supposrt of the VE lynch, but i've spent more time thinking about hapa/munk than I have about VE
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 17 2012 23:40 GMT
#2294
i've already made the case against munke and I think it's too much against him to dismiss it as him maybe being scumbait. you aren't pushing reads and your explanations for your reads are way less substantial than normal.

also i still want an answeer to my question about why you might want to lynch jay.

are you accusing me of being scum right now by saying i'm too lazy?
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 17 2012 23:41 GMT
#2297
ok well I can still try and if it doesn't work out I can switch back to VE, no?
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 17 2012 23:42 GMT
#2300
VE that boson vote is very scummy.... he;s not being lynched today
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 17 2012 23:43 GMT
#2302
On December 18 2012 08:42 Vivax wrote:
You can still try WHAT? To convince 4 players who aren't reading your posts?


yeah because some jackass is telling me to stfu
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 17 2012 23:44 GMT
#2304
hapa... ve is not stepping up. you should just buss him imo
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 17 2012 23:46 GMT
#2307
wtf are you saying.... that's not what they are doing
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 17 2012 23:47 GMT
#2310
lol i think i'm equally ok with both lynches at this point
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 17 2012 23:48 GMT
#2312
hapa I don't see it... check voting thread
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 18 2012 00:38 GMT
#2357
how is it math? is it wifom math that you could easily apply to any lynch?
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 18 2012 00:42 GMT
#2365
On December 18 2012 09:41 jaybrundage wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 18 2012 09:38 thrawn2112 wrote:
how is it math? is it wifom math that you could easily apply to any lynch?

If you assume im town then it makes perfect sense. BUT YOU have to go with the premise that im town.

Does anything im doing make sense form a scum perspective. ofcnot

Now get of VE lynch thrawn i think your town but we need you to step up right now and get off of VE lynch


o.0
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 18 2012 00:45 GMT
#2371
On December 18 2012 09:44 jaybrundage wrote:
wtf guys why is no one moving we have like 14 mins left


what do you think about a move to hapa?
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 18 2012 01:03 GMT
#2411
inb4 Jay fakes surprise
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 18 2012 12:10 GMT
#2461
We should lynch hapa.

Part 1 - Munk-e

+ Show Spoiler +
On December 17 2012 17:07 thrawn2112 wrote:
I agree with marv about hapa but I want to point out some things about munk-e

Just from looking at munke's filter I'm surprised that hapa hasn't received that much attention. Everything munke said was scummy. Here's his first entrance into the thread:

Show nested quote +
On December 11 2012 00:41 Munk-E wrote:
Good morning and hello, everyone! I will be doing a more in depth reading of the thread, but for now, WBG, how on earth did you figure palmer was more likely to be scum than anyone? You said there were 5 people that hadn't participated yet, yet palmer, being one of them had a 2/3rds chance of being scum. Did you sleep through math class, or do you actually have some explaination to back that up?


The tone of the post seems fake. At first he acts really friendly and talks about how he's going to do a more in depth reading of the thread... which is implying that he has at least read the thread. And he decides to attack wbg over the stupid wbg 80% remark? He even insults wbg ("did you sleep through math class") so he is pretty committed to this line of questioning. The 80% stuff is a scum topic and he's all the more scummier for it because it was the only thing he talked about. I point some of this out to him and then he posts:

Show nested quote +
On December 11 2012 01:02 Munk-E wrote:
On December 11 2012 00:45 thrawn2112 wrote:
On December 11 2012 00:41 Munk-E wrote:
Good morning and hello, everyone! I will be doing a more in depth reading of the thread, but for now, WBG, how on earth did you figure palmer was more likely to be scum than anyone? You said there were 5 people that hadn't participated yet, yet palmer, being one of them had a 2/3rds chance of being scum. Did you sleep through math class, or do you actually have some explaination to back that up?


for a first post I don't like how 'irrelevant' this one is. people questioning each other about arbitrary percentages never results in anything useful. munk-e, please get to other stuff from the thread asap


I just find it strange how he went from maybe or maybe not policy voting you,(he didn't make it clear either way, which seems like a way to cover his ass in case he made a mistake) to very heavily and arbitrarily tunneling palmer, with no evidence when he had 5 people with the exact same case against them. It doesn't make any sense to me.

I mean, he goes from out of nowhere accusing palmer saying he's 80% sure he's mafia, based on absolutely nothing, to when people ask him about it saying "woah, I didn't say i was certain he was scum"

On December 10 2012 16:59 wherebugsgo wrote:
How many of them are there?

How many scum are probably in this game?

What did I say was my certainty on Palmar being scum?

Don't force me to treat you like you're dumb.


Then he lowers the percentage of palmer being scum, probably so if he flips town, he doesn't seem as guilty.


It just seems weird to me.


He talks about other stuff that makes wbg scummy... why didn't he mention this in his first post about wbg? And the new argument for the accusation he made about the 80% stuff was awful. After all of that his read onw wbg totaled up to "It just seems weird to me." Later on Munke posts:

Show nested quote +
On December 11 2012 01:44 Munk-E wrote:as for WBG, the more i think about it, the more I think he's more likely to be town. If he was scum, this play would either be to bus palmer if he's scum, which would be stupid and unnecessary, or to try to start a bandwagon on him if he's town, which would most likely be futile. He could be trying to appear to be an aggressive scumhunter, attacking harmless enemies though, so he seems town, but then again, aggressive scumhunting seems town.

I see his logic now, but it is flawed. I highly doubt that all the scum were lurkers.


So now he goes back on his non committal wbg read using a wifom argument and now we're at 0 reads for wbg. He also throws in the completely irrelevant line about not all scum being lurkers.... how does this help us?

Then there's his final post, his vote for adam:

Show nested quote +
On December 12 2012 09:45 Munk-E wrote:
Woah. Remember that we need 9 votes to lynch someone. With only a half hour left, it's probably too late to start a counter wagon. Even if jay seems more likely than adam, Adam is still worth your vote more. With 9 votes exactly on him, I'm worried that a last second band wagon gives any scum buddies he might have trying to bus him a legitimate reason to turn today into a no lynch.

##VOTE Adam4167


"Woah?" Lol. Is he sitting at his computer reeling in shock thinking about possible last minute scum shenanigans? He hasn't said anything at all about any other player than wbg but he says this important part:

Show nested quote +
On December 12 2012 09:45 Munk-E wrote:With 9 votes exactly on him, I'm worried that a last second band wagon gives any scum buddies he might have trying to bus him a legitimate reason to turn today into a no lynch.
##VOTE Adam4167


I do not believe that a guy who's only contributions to the thread are making a half accusation against wbg which he later takes back and a comment about scum not being lurkers would be so sure and concerned about adam's lynch. He even talks about potential scumbuddies.... which reveals his underlying knowledge of adam's alignment.

coming soon - part 2: hapa


Part 2 - Hapa's opening posts

+ Show Spoiler +
I don't like hapa's first real entrance to the thread:

On December 12 2012 13:01 Hapahauli wrote:
Regarding Djo

I'm not sure if anyone's brought it up, but I watched Palmar's video and was really surprised he skipped over one of his posts in his analysis:

Show nested quote +
On December 10 2012 16:28 Djodref wrote:
@ WBG

If I take your word for jay and assume that you are not scum yourself, I'd say that I don't have huge concerns about anyone at the beginning of this game. Why did you single out Palmar among all the people who didn't participate yet ?
What about Bluelight, Z-Bo, Munk-E, Vivax and Tunkeg ? All of them scum by elimination ?

The underlined bit is a very strange thing for a townie to say. Townies are a naturally suspicious folk, and a line of reasoning that assumes someone is not scum really goes against this mentality.

Of course I'm not going to judge him on one post, but if there's anyone I could call a scum-read right now, it would be Djo.


I didn't have a problem with djo's line "If I take your word for jay and assume that you are not scum yourself." Djo was involved with a discussion with wbg and wbg was probing djo for alternate scumreads. I don't expect hapa to miss something like this which he later claimed here:

On December 12 2012 13:09 Hapahauli wrote:
Ah see this is why I should catch up before I pull the trigger.


Hapa ended the first post about djo with "Of course I'm not going to judge him on one post, but if there's anyone I could call a scum-read right now, it would be Djo." That's an incredibly weak read to make and hapa didn't even go so far as examining the context of djo's post. I don't think a town hapa who had watched palmar's video would enter the thread like this.

There's also an interesting exchange between hapa/boson starting with a z-boson post where hapa seems to be able to give a response to boson's case too quickly... this is what scum do because they immediately enter the thread with an agenda. In my experience town replacements are uneasy committing to any reads because they aren't familiar with the thread and haven't been in the game long enough to get a feel for all the players. Scum are often the opposite because they already know alignments. A little bit later tunkeg calls hapa out for the same kind of thing here.


Part 3 - Hapa's scumhunting

+ Show Spoiler +
Hapa doesn't make cases this game. I tried to look through his filter and tried to find cases and this might be the closest thing I could find to a normal aggressive hapa case but it's not really even close to a case. When town hapa makes cases he goes in depth on his reads and explicity says what he thinks and he has clearly aggressive objective. That's not at all how he's played this game. He is writing it off as him not putting as much into this game as he normally would but this hapa still is too passive to be town hapa regardless of if his activity explanations are legitimate.


Day 3 VE's lynch

+ Show Spoiler +
Day 3 starts with Hapa voting for VE. He does this despite not really pushing for a ve lynch or talking about him beforehand. Marv calls him out for it and hapa says "no I do have legitimate reasons to vote for ve" and links to this post:

On December 15 2012 10:18 Hapahauli wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 15 2012 10:08 jaybrundage wrote:
Time to vote Palmar?


Not time to vote Palmar.



I'll have to look between jay, VE, BL, and Z-Bo for the next scummer. I was planning to post question VE about one of his posts if Tunkeg flipped red. That sadly didn't happen, but the post seems relevant regardless:

Show nested quote +
On December 14 2012 16:21 VisceraEyes wrote:
After looking at Tunkeg's filter, it's mostly blah. Not even in a bad way or good way...just blah. The only thing I don't like about his filter is nicely summed up in Hapa's post on the guy - his periods of absolute certainty that he shouldn't have if he's town.

His "martyr reads" and Adam's reads ended up being strikingly similar, but Tunkeg's came first and Adam flipped scum.

He MIGHT be scum, but I'm not really interested in lynching him today. I prefer to see ZBoson flip before making a final judgement call on Tunkeg. If I can't get a ZBoson lynch and Tunkeg is the only other alternative however, I would vote for Tunkeg.


The bolded is a pretty strong statement. I'm not sure if it's just poor wording or not, but he seems to be putting some heavy suspicion on Tunkeg, then dancing around the issue in favor of Z-Bo.


I can't find much other than that post that would make me think hapa would have been considering a VE lynch. And the content of the post itself is not much of commitment to a read on VE.

The next section of hapa's filter for D3 is almost completely composed of hapa defending himself. There was a lot of momentum for a djo or ve lynch and this would not have been a good use of a town hapa's time, especially when his vote and stance on VE was pretty weak to begin with.

Then Ve's claim comes out and here is hapa's reaction to it:

On December 18 2012 07:38 Hapahauli wrote:
interesting. I'll have to think about whether it's true or not. If no one counterclaims, I could get behind a Jay lynch. His tunnel on Djo felt really forced all through today.


For myself, VE's claim is what made me ok with settling for VE lynch instead of a hapa lynch. Boson said ve was "lying through his teeth." He goes back and forth on what to do but pretty quickly decides not to trust the claim. I said VE's claim looked too easy to pull off. Vivax didn't believe the claim. Djo didn't believe the claim because ve hadn't committed to defending djo because of the green check. But hapa seems the least suspicious about the claim out of everyone. He said it looks too risky for a fake claim.... but scum have already tried to claim vigi this game! It didn;t look risky at all... there is no way to confirm it if we don't already have a cop (which wasn't likely due to the number of blues already) to counterclaim. At this point hapa is suggesting we lynch Jay.

On December 18 2012 08:43 Hapahauli wrote:

I want to lynch jay because his tunnel on Djo felt really forced. He's also afk for critical moments of the game (such as now) and he hasn't given me any reasons to think he's town. That's only if VE steps up though.


But then comes this post:

On December 18 2012 09:38 Hapahauli wrote:
I can't figure out a player that I'd feel comfortable switching onto.

Jay's reactions so far don't seem scummy. He's setting himself up to draw alot of attention to himself regardless of how VE flips. Even Z-Bo seems alright.

...and who else? Bluelightz? Seems like a coin-flip.


I disagreed then and now, Jay's actions did seem scummy at the time regardless of how I felt about VE's chances of being scum. I think this is the consensus of other people as well. But somehow hapa has the exact opposite reaction that everyone else had and no longer is down for lynching Jay... then he suggests we lynch Z-bo or bluelightz instead of either VE OR JAY... both people that hapa has weakly claimed to want to lynch in various parts of D3.
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 18 2012 12:12 GMT
#2462
ebwop small formatting error but "Day 3 - VE's lynch" shoulda been "Part 4 - Day 3"
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 18 2012 12:12 GMT
#2463
djo are you here? have any comments?
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 18 2012 12:30 GMT
#2466
is that based on anything or do I have to guess?
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 18 2012 12:49 GMT
#2472
current read list from most likely to be scum to least:

1. hapa
2. jay

3 grush
3 bl
3 boson

4 djo
5 marv
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
thrawn2112
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States6918 Posts
December 18 2012 12:52 GMT
#2473
oh whoops i forgot about vivax... he's probably in the "3" group but closer to being town than anyone else in the 3 group
"People think they know all these things about other people, and if you ask them why they think they know that, it'd be hard for them to be convincing." ES
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