Mario Mini Mafia - Page 7

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 16 2012 22:59 GMT

#2166

Strong, what is your opinion on a mass claim, specifically for this game, keeping in mind the setup speculation that its modified c9++?

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 16 2012 23:33 GMT

#2169

I agree, but I'd like to hear opinions on it, partially because it could help the potential dt decide

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 17 2012 01:12 GMT

#2250

On November 17 2012 09:31 Blazinghand wrote:

Show nested quote +

On November 17 2012 09:30 iamperfection wrote:

On November 17 2012 09:27 Blazinghand wrote:

On November 17 2012 09:22 strongandbig wrote:
And here's something else you're ignoring - your claim makes even less sense from a town point of view. You claimed early in day 1 when you had like three votes on you. If you were town, by doing this you would have unnecessarily ruined your effectiveness as a town power role.

My claim makes perfect sense. I was under heavy pressure, and they weren't listening to my arguments. I didn't want to be on the lynch table, and honestly any analysis and voting is infinitely more important than being a JK. The number one role of any blue player is to play like a VT-- the blue powers are just a bonus on top, especially in Normal games. The blue powers I used to avoid a shitty mislynch D1 and focus the discussion. And hey, it worked, too.

On November 17 2012 09:22 strongandbig wrote:
The argument that your claim is "uncontested" is completely irrelevant. This is not an open setup. I mentioned this above. Your claim is also unverifiable, making it a good claim for scum.

It's not irrelevant. There's now town JKer counterclaiming me, and you can't just toss that out the window-- so far there is one blue claim other than myself, and that's all. I'm uncontested.

On November 17 2012 09:22 strongandbig wrote:
The thing is, nothing about your behavior in this game resembles your town play. Your cases are terrible, your arguments are terrible, and your thread presence isn't constructive.

If you're gonna pull a meta argument, show me a damn game inw hich I act like this as scum, I double dog dare you

On November 17 2012 09:22 strongandbig wrote:
And I don't have to "defeat" your argument about lynching Hapa. You did that yourself.

how

The fuck you were you were not under heavy pressure you have talked about this constantly. Your claim didnt make any sense and you knew it. Stop acting like you made some great play because you didn't. you are delusional. Do you not read your own coaching tips???????????

My claim was necessary. I played bad and was forced to claim, but the claim itself, given the circumstances, was the right call.

This is bullshit, and its been discussed ad nauseum. This post is a reminder that BH is my number 1 priority lynch pending night action resolution. I also don't want to lynch SnB.
##Unvote

There is only ONE way that any remaining anti-town factions KNOW who the other is:
Scum shot bulletproof SK and SK shot marv. (This assumes I'm actually a vig) That means that at best, there is a one-directional association case that could be made for the remaining players. 'Saving' or 'bussing' teammates no longer applies.

The only player cross gave anything on was BH. Hapa is too jumpy to get anything reliable out of. I think I can get behind Darth's WIFOM bomb theory regarding Z-Bo. I'm going to look through his meta to see if that pans out.

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 17 2012 01:32 GMT

#2257

On November 17 2012 10:15 debears wrote:
Does anyone know the odds of a miller being in the setup with:

1) a jk/scum rb
2) a vig
3) a gf

I don't feel like crunching actual numbers, but that setup would only require:

MVD ####

M=mason/miller. 1 M usually means innocent child, but that was replaced by miller.
V=Vig - All are single shot, so this roll is questionable as to how it gets handed out
D=Doctor/Jailkeeper

4 "unknown" rolls, however, some may need to be duplicates to actually generate the blue. Therefore I`d estimate an additional 2 blues in this game. As always setup speculation is tedious and not worth that much in the grand scheme of
things when playing a semi-open setup. I think we should leave it alone unless someone claims scum through attempted setup-based manipulation.

On November 17 2012 10:28 iamperfection wrote:

Show nested quote +

he did actually he just didn't mention cross.

That damn near clears djo as far as association cases go.

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 17 2012 01:36 GMT

#2258

EBWOP: I didn't really read debears' questions, I just went off what people have claimed this game.

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 17 2012 02:38 GMT

#2289

I'm a good little sheep:

##Vote: Z-Booson

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 17 2012 04:42 GMT

#2303

djodref, read the OP setup. No one-shot variants of anything, except all vig's are one-shot. Setup speculation needs to stop, it isn't catching the last scum.

/agree with BH on save claims for later. At the earliest, during night resolution, but do not feel that you have to. I felt it was necessary for me to claim considering the amount of suspicion against me, and the fact that marv's top two scumreads got eliminated if my claim was true. It served a purpose to claim the way I did, it wasn't arbitrary or strictly to save my own ass (though this was a factor).

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 17 2012 21:25 GMT

#2403

ZB, besides meta, a big reason I want to lynch you is I fully agree that you were WIFOM bombing like DP said. Particularly damning are these two quotes, sequential in your filter:

On November 14 2012 09:18 Z-BosoN wrote:
Allrighty back.
Dammit BH, I really think you should have saved your claim until later, you gave up too easily :/
I wasn't as certain on you as it might have seemed, but I wanted to gauge your reaction by throwing you against the wall.
Anyways, here's what I think of this game so far.

marv is likely town. He's a difficult town read to give, but his posting here seems genuine, and is much different than in GSL. Either he's trying much harder as scum or he's town. For now I'll go with the latter.

Clarity is likely town. Just look at him being all cute under a major dirt-flinging fest. I'm townie, and so must be BH right now, so if I know my XXX analysis straight, scum hate posting during these sort of fightsituations, and It's harder for me to see scum posting during all of that like he did.

Kickstart is likely town. He seems very genuine with his thoughts, and his posts, to me, seem townie-oriented.

iamp is likely town. If his entire 180 attention-drawing isn't enough, then his activeness during all of this also indicate to me he is town.

This is how I feel right now regarding townsfolk.

Originally I had SnB down as town, but I feel he is null right now to me, I dunno, have a hard time reading him. Would (maybe?) give a town read on him?
Thrawn is null to me. I can't see him being this quiet either as townie or as scum. He really really has to explain himself or be replaced thoug...
Crossfire is afk.

Now towards the scummers

Hapauli. Much quieter this game. Much less present. Disappeared during all of my interaction with BH, only to appear after the claim. I don't buy his cases, especially the one on iamp. Completely ignored my first case on BH, and town Hapa usually comments on everything. In the beginning, put on some light pressure on DP, then unvoted him from some easy explanation only to never mention him again. Not a play I'd see hapa do.

debears. Began the game with excessive posting, made a poor sheepy follow-up on iamp. Disappeared and has drastically reduced his posting. Seems pretty damn scummy.

DarthPunk Doesn't have much to work with, is likely working on the other game. I find it weird how little attention he's getting from some of the scummier folk. A bad tell, but he's here mostly by elimination.

Hopeless1der Not sure of his play yet. It's comparable to that of LVII, but I can see him as scum. Dunno.

These are just my thoughts, mainly to get discussion going and for BH to see what he thinks (there's still a chance he's scum, but I'm assuming he is town for now).

I haven't decided who I want to lynch yet, these are just my thoughts from my current level of reading. Tomorrow I'll be back probably with more powerful cases.

On November 15 2012 05:16 Z-BosoN wrote:
I'm down to lynching hopeless1der.

No comment on BH
I find this point, mentioned before, to be quite good. He not only didn't mention BH's claim, but he attacked someone for not mentioning it. It sounds very contrived and doesn't seem to have strong town motivation at all.

Meta
What seals the deal for me is his meta from the last game I played with him, LVII. From the start, his game has been very different. Observe one of his entrance posts:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=361826&currentpage=21#402
Note that he is aggressive and makes a case right off the bat against forumite. BAM. Vote. Doesn't give a shit. Is assertive, aggressive.

What of this game? Look at his only post that comes close to being significant.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381440&currentpage=22#438
Makes a big post, doesn't conclude shit. Seems just like the ordinary "look at me scumhunting". In this game he shows a weaker, less assertive version of him in LVII. He has a bunch of posts going after debears, and he's not going anywhere with it..
He only votes debears when debears is already a viable candidate, has two votes on him. Here is his voting post:

Show nested quote +

On November 14 2012 22:16 Hopeless1der wrote:

On November 14 2012 14:54 debears wrote:
For all you who think me being afk is a scumtell, which you guys are retarded if you do

Let me just say this once. Fuck off debears. Nothing personal, but in all seriousness OMGUS. I'm still your scum read because I've done nothing since you laid into me for 'lecturing town'. If you still want to harp on that chord, you're not being a good little townie. I was afk for longer than you were, and you have nothing new to post in the thread.

I'll lay this out for you. This is the post I was "lecturing" about:

On November 13 2012 10:49 DarthPunk wrote:

On November 13 2012 10:44 marvellosity wrote:
you can't active lurk in a game that's less than 2 hours old, numbnuts.

If anyone's 'active lurking' it's me. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Don't shut people down who are obviously trying their best to scum hunt and contribute. You are only going to discourage those things. Or is that what you want?

I was not lecturing everyone, I was responding to a single post and listing multiple examples of less than stellar reasons to vote for someone.

I was told to drop it with you so you could focus on the rest of the game instead, because I was distracting you from being useful.

On November 14 2012 00:17 marvellosity wrote:
Hopeless, I think you're making too much of that. The bit you bold says "was" - past tense, that was his stance previously (when he'd missed my Crossfire post).

Like debears said just now there's not a lot to say about Crossfire otherwise, you can't really have a stance on someone who hasn't posted yet.

The whole issue is overblown and should be dropped. If only because it's a big distraction to debears, who has to keep talking about it, and it's not helping anyone

And yet I'm still your top scum read and iamperfection is still the only other player you'll really talk about. You haven't commented on anything significant (neither have I yet, but fuck it, you're already voting me)

I dont give a shit what your IRL issues are, same as you probably dont care why I was gone. I care that you claim that there are no better cases than the one on me when you have no new information and are just stuck on the fact that I'm afk and therefore avoiding you. What's more, you aren't even pushing me as your scum read.
Yes this is an OMGUS vote.
##Vote: debears

Am I going to need to pull a BH and shoot my load earl--I mean sift through my own meta to find examples of me being a jackass?
Btw debears, why in the hell were you unable/unwilling to comment on BH's claim?

Basically votes on debears for not pushing his top scum read. Doesn't add any of the the other arguments he used here.

That does not sound like anyone who's scum hunting. He says his vote is OMGUS, and states ONE reason for pursuing debears. He spends a long time focusing on debears but never actually voting. This, of course, much unlike his own play in LVII. Look at how he treats his cases in LVII, and how greatly it contrasts with his play this game:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=361826&currentpage=51#1015
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=361826&currentpage=51#1013

He's using every single argument he had already made, and is being a LOT more insistent and convincing than that. I'm not the best judge of meta, but that is in too great a contrast with his play on this game, in my opinion.

Why not debears?

I've done some thinking on this and I'm not sure he's scum. Hapa's main argument of not pushing his scumreads are decent, but I've mislynched people on that count before. Judging by his play, and comparing that to his last game as scum, I don't see it being too similar.
When he was scum, his posts were much longer. In day one, he spent a lot of time writing out big cases and looked much townier (lol, weird, but true). I can see him sheeping on iamp with that kind of mentality, based on such a weak argument. I think scum debears would rather make his own case on someone and be happy with it.

Why not DarthPunk?
He hasn't posted much. I find him a good lynch, nevertheless. He is referring himself as a mislynch, YET AGAIN. And I've already told him he loves doing that as scum. I have no idea why he's doing it, but I'm not going to use that as a tell. I don't like how bitchy he is being, focusing most of his time in crying and whining instead of scumhunting. I'm interested to see how he goes in day two though.

Conclusion
I find hopeless' contrast in meta much worse in this game. He's being useless and much less present than in LVII. Read his filter there, read it here, and see if you come to the same conclusion I did. He doesn't look like he's trying to get debears lynched. Especially how much effort he put on in LVII.

##Vote Hopeless1der

Not because of who you voted, or even how you explained your vote. Its how you explained why you wouldn't vote the others. Hapa isn't mentioned. It's too conspicuous. I feel very good about lynching you today.

In addition, given that you claimed miller, it would have been an appropriate time to mention your choice to change up your meta. Whether or not its true is not the problem, its the fact that it was used as a crutch to try and save yourself. You used your 'intentional meta shift' as a player might claim miller as its getting close to their lynch. Its scummy because you withheld information from town and then used that information to try to manipulate a case made against you. It does matter that you pre-empted Marv's case with this explanation, and I consider marv and BH's meta reads on you to be both accurate and condemning.

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 17 2012 21:26 GMT

#2404

EBWOP: last sentence should read "It doesn't matter that you pre-empted..."

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 17 2012 21:41 GMT

#2417

I did read it. You should have been expecting to be lynched at the time of that post. You were the leader for the 10-15 minutes leading up to the lynch, right up until Hapa got bombed. Arguing that you didn't expect it is like saying BH's claim was a great idea.

Committing to a day2 bus of Hapa? Why is that a bad thing as scum? One of you walks away with massive town-cred, and there's no guarantee that either of you would prevail. In addition, Hapa hard defended your meta-shift claim. Bussing a teammate is a legitimate strategy.

You 'gave away' the second scumbuddy during the night, after he failed to produce anything useful. You didn't give away shit. If you are trying to imply that Hapa was #1 and BH was #2, then fuck you harder. If you are saying you gave up Cross, which kind of makes sense, I counter with Cross gave himself up. You just acknowledged it and bought into the cred earned by flipping him as a goon.

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 17 2012 22:09 GMT

#2427

On November 15 2012 10:48 Dandel Ion wrote:
votecount:

DarthPunk (6): thrawn2112, Hapahauli, Z-BosoN, Kickstart
Z-BosoN (6): Clarity_nl, marvellosity, DarthPunk, Crossfire99, Blazinghand, strongandbig
debears (1): Hopeless1der
Hopeless (1): debears

Not voting: iamperfection

Currently, DarthPunk is set to be lynched!

Full version (disregarded):
+ Show Spoiler +

debears (2): ~~Z-Boson~~, ~~strongandbig~~, ~~Hapahauli~~, Hopeless1nder, ~~marvellosity~~, strongandbig
DarthPunk (7): ~~Hapahauli~~ ~~Hapahauli~~, ~~Clarity_nl~~, thrawn2112, ~~Blazinghand~~, iamperfection, ~~Blazinghand~~, Blazinghand, Hapahauli, ~~debears~~, Z-BosoN, Kickstart, debears
Hopeless1der (0): ~~debears~~, ~~marvellosity~~, ~~marvellosity~~, ~~Z-BosoN~~, ~~Kickstart~~, ~~debears~~, ~~debears~~
Z-BosoN (4): ~~Blazinghand~~, ~~iamperfection~~, ~~Blazinghand~~, ~~marvellosity~~, Clarity_nl, marvellosity, DarthPunk, Crossfire99
Hapahauli (0): ~~iamperfection,~~ ~~strongandbig~~. ~~Kickstart~~, ~~Blazinghand~~
Blazinghand (0): ~~iamperfection~~, ~~Z-BosoN~~, ~~marvellosity~~, ~~iamperfection~~, ~~strongandbig~~, ~~Crossfire99~~
iamperfection (0): ~~Hapahauli~~, ~~Bloatinghand~~
thrawn2112 (0): ~~Hapahauli~~
strongandbig (0): ~~DarthPunk~~, ~~Z-BosoN~~, ~~Clarity_nl~~, ~~Hapahauli~~, ~~DarthPunk~~
Clarity_nl (0): ~~DarthPunk~~
marvellosity (0): ~~debears~~
Crossfire99 (0): ~~marvellosity~~, ~~debears~~, ~~Blazinghand~~

Not voting (0):

I realize this isn't the point, but count the actual number of votes. Also, "12 minutes'. It doesn't matter, you were more likely to get lynched than Hapa was. This bullshit about not believing you were going to die is ridiculous.

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 17 2012 22:28 GMT

#2430

On November 18 2012 07:16 Z-BosoN wrote:
Also, yea, makes a lot of sense. I knew I was getting lynched, and said "in the godly situation I get lynched". Because I, a scum mastermind, realized that this would help me in the future. Sigh...

first, you meant 'ungodly' and second, that was either you being facetious or sarcastic, from my point of view.

On November 18 2012 06:55 Z-BosoN wrote:
I already showed signs of suspicion form hapa.

You also showed signs of suspicion against me, debears and DarthPunk, but when the time came for you to vote (for me), Hapa was the only one who didn't receive a cursory glance into why you no longer felt he was worth looking at.

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 17 2012 23:37 GMT

#2445

We can't because Keir has modified the setup. Stop it.

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 17 2012 23:41 GMT

#2447

There is no surefire method to determine what in the end is JUST A PROBABILITY. It won't prove anything, its just errant discussion. Stop it.

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 17 2012 23:59 GMT

#2466

On November 18 2012 08:59 Z-BosoN wrote:
Anyone else? Hopeless? Got all 1 hour to convince you narrow-minded buffoons that I am actually a miller and that my explanation for my play is much more probable than anything you conjecturers have been spewing.

beep beep town beep beep

Go do something useful, you're dieing as far as I'm concerned.

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 18 2012 23:14 GMT

#2832

This fucking setup speculation....everyone is now VT. Congrats.

Hopeless1der

United States5836 Posts

November 18 2012 23:15 GMT

#2834

I lynch into Z-bo's wagon

Hopeless1der