EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXX - Page 4
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
| ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
But he didn't vote? I don't like the word "scumslip", but voting sure is a thing to forget in your case >_>; IMO. He even took the time for nice formatting and font coloring. My wording above (that you quoted) is poor, I noticed it after posting but didn't really want to post an EBWOP. I definitely don't think Clarity is town due to the lack of voting, I meant to show that he seemed insincere in calling me Mafia since he didn't actually post a vote. If that makes sense ^^ | ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
 I don't want to retype it; but basically, I don't really understand why you'd want me to rationally discuss with Clarity when you intend to lynch him. I'm gonna post what I wrote so far (It's a long filter analysis up until about where Djo starts attacking Clarity).+ Show Spoiler + Okay so I'm typing this in a text file so if the formatting is stupid I apologize in advance lol. (sorry for the lol, da0ud ^^) With regards to Clarity and why he is scum: I am going to spoiler this because I'm basically just going through his filter point by point and taking things that I can comment on. + Show Spoiler + I think the two things to take away from all this though: - Debears defended Cheese - Djodref tunneling Cheese All three of these people are town. Just as a side note. (If somebody would like my thoughts on Djo's JK claim, I can deliver.) Last three pages was djo, you and me. Still no word from da0ud and sylver. I think you are wrong in saying Obzy is useless. He might not have posted a lot but he makes good points or asks decent questions when he does, maybe you feel that way because he's biggest post is directed at you? This was in response to debears asking Clar if anything stood out as weird - I don't really think it's particularly important, but I thought it funny that he commented he didn't think I was useless at that time period. [With regards to Clar's list of reads] Considered Djo slightly scum, null on deb, null on Cheese. Slightly town on myself. So with all that said, I only have two slight scumreads on Alsn and Djo, I am no longer suspect of Alsn, at least not as much. Although he seems to have a hard on for debears and djo he's making decent points and trying to further conversation. Cool, so Alsn was down with debears and Djo. Mental note I guess. Cautions Rad about the perils of not having any reads - Ehn Comments at 16:22 Nov4 that he'll be making a case (or multiple) that day, to Djo. Specifically namedrops Hapa and comments he'll ignore the advice people follow, taking issue with its quality. (Apologizes later.) (In a response to Djo): On November 04 2012 17:20 Clarity_nl wrote: Top 3 choices in my eyes are Debears, Sylver and you. As for people who haven't answered my questions: Alsn, Cheese, Sylver. I'll have to look and see if he pushes Sylver at all. He mentions Cheese not looking scummy ~16ish hours before the deadline. Posts a defense from debears' post. On November 05 2012 02:54 Clarity_nl wrote: If you are town you can talk your way out of a lynch regardless. It's not like I would've posted my case an hour beforehand, right about now is when I would've posted it. I am currently working on a different case while also answering questions, so please bear with me. I will keep djo's case on hand in case I get lynched. I will post it before the deadline if it seems I'll die. Otherwise saving it for D2 Okay so apparently he had planned on posting a case on Djo today. That obviously will not occur unless da0ud claims JK or something, but w/e. I find the line "If you are town you can talk your way out of a lynch regardless" somewhat amusing; as a side note - I don't really know if he's talking about Djo or just in general. He posts a case on debears, that looks fairly legitimate if the knowledge that debears was VT didn't exist. (Votes DB at that time) - When debears asks him to post his case on Djo, he chooses not to, largely because he intends to on Day 2 or if he is going to be lynched. He (afterwards) mentions that he doesn't want to post a case on Djo if Djo won't be there to defend himself - I really don't like this. Why would you care if the person wasn't around to defend themselves if you think they're scum? And if you don't think they're scum, why would you post a case on them? I guess he can have points for Chivalry, but I think that he didn't want to post a case because he knew Djo was town. Clar has some commentary on how staying neutral isn't bad D1, I disagree with this, but I've already covered that in this post. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=379514¤tpage=40#785 (It happens to be the one that I mention not feeling comfortable about voting CC - this is still taking place before debears picks up that CC is trying to claim.) Then the CC claim stuff - By this point, I had voted Clar largely due to process of elimination. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=379514¤tpage=37#730 I liked Djo and debears' cases, I didn't like Clarity's case on debears, and between Clar and Sylv, I voted Clar. (I largely got my town read on db _because_ he hadn't gone and pointed out that I was sort of shitty and thus Mafia, despite having questioned me.) After CC's claim, Clarity mentioned that assumptions couldn't be made based on host behavior. This didn't make sense to me unless he was blue or scum, which he addressed later- I couldn't really find fault with that at the time, it seemed like he had just been thinking more than I had if he was VT yet asked about the VT flavor. He brings up a quote of mine telling him to convince me who _is_ scum, rather than trying to convince me that he isn't- he basically says that he's too busy defending himself to push his scumreads. On November 05 2012 09:28 Clarity_nl wrote: I think if Cheese flips red there's no way debears is scum.... 9 player mafia and scum busses eachother day 1? No way. Given that he'd posted a case on DB, this looks relevant; but if he knew Cheese had no chance of flipping red, it doesn't hurt the fact he's only actually made a case on debears (up until this point) at all. Gets angry at CC for not defending himself (I concur with this) but then votes him for his defense being WIFOM, over his scumread of debears? _And then says, On November 05 2012 09:42 Clarity_nl wrote: Wait, so you're voting debears to save yourself when you're VT? What the hell. Debears was his scumread and vote up until this point, and when CC changes his vote to be on Debears, he questions it. Why why why. There should be zero confusion if CC really was VT, given that he is basically agreeing with what Clarity had assumed up until this point; but once Clarity switches, he questions it. Clar mentions that the logical thing to do would be to jump on him to save himself, instead of Djo, then debears, then him. Djo is town, debears is town, ??? The comment looks like it's trying to indicate that "Clarity must be town, CC did not considering jumping onto him at first" to me. I will try to continue this later tonight, but I'm done for the moment. I'm going to catch up a few posts in the thread and then be afk for a couple of hours (until my work day ends, I get home, and I finish eating dinner) - I wanted to get my point-by-point thoughts to Alsn before he had to go to sleep. | ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
If you aren't scum, and I'm not scum, and Djo isn't scum, then who do you think is our scumteam? I realize you said you didn't know, Sylver maybe, etc - Just go under the assumption that the three of us are not scum. | ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
I know I'm not scum. My defense to Clarity's argument, if I am going to be completely honest, comes to this: I lack motivation to play this game. I wanted to play a game so that I wouldn't feel guilty /obsing other mafia games, as over the past month or so, I've realized this subforum existed and started actively reading. My posts lack content and commitment and conviction and are sheepy because I don't want to put in the time to post, I just want to read and have the game develop and at the end of it be able to say "see look I played too". Sheeping is basically like reading - I get to see what other people think, judge my own reaction to it, look at other peoples' reactions, and go with what feels right. I've been asked to write cases or do research or find scumreads or etcs off and on all game, and pretty much my response has been to try, but suck at it, then get discouraged and not actually think my reads are good and then stop. So why bother still playing if I don't really care? I'd feel bad if my team, town, lost because of my apathy. That's really about it. If you are also town, Clarity, then push one of those two people enough that they are more appealing than voting you. If you aren't town, then whatever, my vote will stay on you, cool. That's fine too. I'm not going to try to post the rest of my thoughts on you like I intended to this afternoon; I got too frustrated and got no irl work done and this game, even though it's probably the most important thing I've done in the four? days that we've played it, really shouldn't be comparing to IRL. To everyone else- if you think that being bad is worth a vote, then by all means, I think you should vote me. But if you want to win the damn game and hit mafia, then wasting time on me is pointless. I'll answer questions if people have any but I think I'm fucking done reading filters and trying to appease people by making shitty cases that suck and so on and so forth. My apologies ^^ I just want to /obs games in the future lol, I don't intend to play again due to the time commitment, but it's been a learning experience and I'm glad I did it. | ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
On November 07 2012 11:24 Djodref wrote: @ Obzy It's ok this game is hard. It requires a great investment. I feel that your post is honest and sincere. If you think you can trust me, please sheep my vote on Clarity  Djo - I'm 100% certain that you are town, I am not 100% sure you're right on Clarity. But for now, he's where my vote sits  | ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
On November 08 2012 00:56 Rad wrote: Some quick thoughts. If clarity flips blue, 100% djo scum. If he flips red, 100% djo blue, alsn blue. Is there a link to 100% djo partner then if clarity flips blue? Alsn could be second cop with him, and probably is since there are no more blue claims. Rad, even IF Clarity DID flip blue, somehow - it doesn't say anything about Djo's alignment. If he was scum and fakeclaimed when he did, it would've been an enormous risk to push through a Clarity mislynch. Djo had been pushing Clarity like absolute mad up until that point already, he claimed to: #1- heighten his credibility #2- take away pressure from the blue hunting that you and Clar were talking to him about; such as when he said he didn't care if he outed blues to kill mafia, and then properly outed himself to get the Clar lynch. If he was dead certain Clarity was scum at that time, his actions show he was willing to die N2 to push the D2 lynch through. That would be absolutely insane to do as scum, it relies on a large number of assumptions and hopes, and if Clarity flipped blue, (IF IF IF), it would merely mean that Djo was wrong, not that he blatantly lied. Honestly, even bringing up Djo as scum as an assumption if Clarity were to flip blue is sort of ridiculous. If he isn't killed in the next few nights, it would look rather suspicious, but until then, I don't think that it would be as simple a matter as "Clar blue = Djo scum". Honestly, assuming two cops would be much more of a stretch than Djo being scum, IMHO, but Alsn's claim is far, far better than Clarity's. @Clarity Lets look at his motive, the circumstances, if it's believable (breadcrumbs), and if it would be wise to fakeclaim here: His motive is to not get lynched by claiming blue. That much is pretty clear. The circumstances - Well, he's going to get lynched. It's a very convenient claim to pull out at this point. Is it believable? His breadcrumb does not exist, he supposedly got roleblocked so he also doesn't have a read. I don't think that's very believable, personally. Is it wise to fakeclaim here? Well, he could get counterclaimed, and Djo has already pointed out that he was fairly certain Clar wasn't blue. So although it's not really particularly wise to fakeclaim, I think he's desperate. @Alsn Same steps. The motive behind claiming is to counterclaim Clarity. Completely reasonable. The circumstances - really, they're the same as the above. Is it believable? - If he's counterclaiming Clarity as a cop and Clarity flips blue, Alsn is practically confirmed blue unless it's an incredibly unlikely scenario of having multiple cops in a 9 person game. His breadcrumb is significantly more believable, breadcrumbing that he was investigating me but received no notification due to Djo jailing him, and also breadcrumbing his actual role - much, much more believable than Clarity. Is it wise to fakeclaim here? NO NO NO NO NO IT WOULD BE MORONIC DING DING DING. Rad, I think that Sylver is probably our second scum, but trying to cast suspicion on the two blues that are, IMO, confirmed as per the above reasoning - That's just ridiculous. Alsn and Djo are confirmed blues IMO, I am VT(there was some doubt about whether or not I was legitimately claiming this or just claiming a town bias - VT is correct), Clarity is scum, that leaves Sylver, da0ud, and you. I think da0ud is town because of his post here, I also agree with his thinking that it's Clar/Sylv; Clar/Rad in that order. It's possible that da0ud is the last scum, but- it's possible that Djo is the bravest mafia player ever and fakeclaimed to shove through a Clarity lynch knowing that it was wrong with the knowledge that other claims would pretty much instantly doom him with confirmation bias the entire way and suspicions around him. It's just incredibly unlikely. (I don't intend to post much/if at all beyond this until the flip unless things go absolutely nuts and turned on their head - like, three more blueclaims nuts or something). I'm obviously satisfied with my vote on Clarity at the moment, and I think that Rad and Sylver should take a good look at each other, because one of them is scum. | ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
| ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
| ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
5 town, 1 scum Djo and Alsn are confirmed[or as good as confirmed] JK and cop each person knows that they are VT or scum, I know I'm VT so I will use myself as the example. Scum can just ignore this post xD 3 confirmed town (I am confirmed to myself) vs 1 scum - Other town will be T1 and T2. ...actually this is way too long lol there's a lot of possibilities and lots of if's it basically comes down to, I don't think there is an optimal strategy. I'll post some thoughts: Djo JKs Sylv, Alsn checks Sylv, comes back scum and DJo dies because Sylv was scum RB. He's not confirmed though - if Rad was framer and framed Sylv and killed Djo, the checks mean nothing. Same goes if the opposite. So stacking on a potential frame target isn't really worth it, it doesn't confirm anything. If Djo JKs the framer, he can't frame or kill anybody, so Alsn's check (if it is on a different target) will come back town. If it comes back scum, it either means scum held KP to get a mischeck, or he landed the check properly - in this case, I think that we can all vote for a No-Lynch and repeat the process until Alsn gets town checks and slowly confirms every member (this is under the assumption that KP is being held). In short, if scum holds KP, we should not vote and we will win without issue. Obviously, if somebody votes and stays on a target, that person is scum, and we lynch them one day afterwards to ascertain that they were not just a townie playing poorly. (We will win even if a mislynch occurs. KP being held just gives us more checks, and it's not possible for a town-cop-check return to mean scum hiding anymore - if it shows town, then they ARE town.) So scum holding KP doesn't work, the game could just be stalled out forever >.> Under that assumption, if there is no kill, then the JK target is the scum. If Alsn gets no check back and no kill occurs, it means that the JK target was not scum and was holding KP. So - if JK target roleblocks Djo, he can kill either Alsn or Djo without repercussions - really, there's nothing we can do about this. If Djo targets the wrong person, he can roleblock Alsn and kill anybody without repercussions as well. Blah blah blah ^^ This is incredibly long and the possibilities are vast. My summary - I think we should stick to our reads and not worry about optimal blue-usage strategy, but if there is no kill, we can discuss it then. If there is no kill and Alsn is roleblocked, it means JK was targetting the wrong person (I think. If JK jails Roleblocker, can the scum RB still RB?) and scum held KP. If there is no kill and Alsn can get a town check, we can repeat this indefinitely - so scum should just give up >.> The game would take forever but inevitably end in our victory and would be a tremendous pain so it'd be nice if under those circumstances scum just conceded defeat. There are too many possibilities to actually pick out an optimal scenario. I am in favor of (currently) lynching Sylv, then Rad. If scum is da0ud under those circumstances, we lose. If not, we win. If Alsn manages to get a town check on one of those three (or myself I guess, approaching it from a different angle,) then we will win for certain. As a result I expect Alsn to die tonight, unless scum is framer and Djo roleblocks him properly. Too many possibilities, Blues should just do what they think is best and state what they did before the night ends, but I intend to vote Sylv > Rad lol. if scum is da0ud, hopefully Alsn is able to confirm one of the three as town, but if a scum result is returned, it is not indicative of anything, due to how many possibilities there are lol. o_O Suuuuuper complicated not knowing if we have a RB or a framer so they must, as a result, be both. I don't think there's an enormous amount that we can discuss about it haha :X Just trust our blues. It would be best to continue in the way we have been IMO :0 If anybody has a magical solution to how blues should be best optimized, then we should, of course, do it but I don't see one.(sheesh this post is super long and kinda pointless in the end) | ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
| ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
Are you down with a Sylv lynch tomorrow? Because I'm pretty sure that's the game plan atm. The alternative is you, afaik. On November 08 2012 11:50 Rad wrote:I did reconsider. I had to throw out all my thoughts about him being VT, but like I said, there was a moment during the cheese chaos that I thought he might be blue. Also, scum clarity NOT at least attempting to ride on my VT story didn't make sense to me. The cop claim was like... what, why would he do that? Is he really cop? So, I held a little hope that he would flip blue and was spending my time thinking about who was the scum if he did (was thinking you and obzy). Why in the world would you ever hope that somebody flipped blue, if you are town? That very nearly makes me want to vote you first, but I think you just misspoke, rather than it being a scumslip. I think that the depth of your backing of Clarity would be too... Hmmm. I don't think it would make a lot of sense as scum. It's certainly possible, but I'd prefer a Sylv lynch tomorrow. | ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
On November 08 2012 13:32 Rad wrote: @Obzy Because I'd be happier with djo being wrong and me being right If clarity flipped blue, you and djo are scum (in my head). That sounds more fun, and still gets town the win, cause I would have tunneled the shit out of both of you. Do you realize you got town confirmation with everyone just because of your claim that you didn't really want to play anymore? Actually da0ud's reaction to that made me really suspicious of him. I get shit on like I'm potential scum even though my story and actions line up perfectly throughout the entire game? Think I'm a scum mastermind after 1 game (in which I was town)? I don't know what to think about sylver atm. I also think it probably doesn't matter because he'll be lynched no matter what. And if it's not him, it's me, so why bother thinking about him (you guys are going to take anything I find as potential scum pushing your opinions, and I think everyone here already knows I'm not great at reads, so it's not like I'm going to find anything reading sylver's filters all day). I'm probably going to think more about who's scum if he's not cause that's way more interesting to me. That sort of thing might save us the game if he flips town, cause then it's all eyes on me and I'll have to convince myself out of it to get town the win. If you lynch me, better make a backup plan, cause I'm flipping mfing VT. Scum should NK me or sylver (if sylver's not scum) to make this shit super interesting and at least end on a fun note ^^ I guess that makes sense. I pointed out how if clarity flipped blue, it doesn't say anything about Djo, but it would make me look bad; that's certainly true. Do I realize I'm confirmed town? Of course o_O I've felt a lot better since making my post; I don't have to worry myself half to death, and we hit scum properly today so I'm happy. My only worry is that if we mislynch twice in a row (Like - if da0ud is scum, and we go Sylv-->you, hypothetically) that it'd be bad obviously, but strategy with blues can't resolve this (aka for the next 24 hours during this night period), and there's no point in worrying if it's between you/da0ud[unlikely imo] until the unlikely (IMO~) scenario that Sylv flips town. I liked da0ud's reaction to the events that had occurred. I think that the slight language difficulty put me at ease a bit, like - how could he be lying while still typing that way? His post literally brought a smile to my face as I was reading it. It felt too genuine, and that's all my own defense really was - honesty and being genuine. I don't want you to be scum, and I think Sylv is, but there are only six people left. I can't blame you for wanting the game to turn out a different way while still having a town victory, but I am going to be content with merely having a town victory (period). I suppose I shouldn't be thinking about contingency plans for two days ahead, I should just think about tomorrow. I'm getting a bit ahead of myself, and apologize. | ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
Rad - I respect your play. I know I'm town. Taking this into account, I wouldn't put it past you to play so excellently as to be able to speak your above piece in a convincing manner ^^ Although I'm a bit too lazy to do this myself if prompted; if you feel like you are going to be lynched and your lynch would cause town to lose, your only real choice is to convince Me that da0ud is the last scum. Here's why: Presumably, scum is going to kill a blue tonight. Tomorrow, Sylv will be lynched. Assuming Sylv is not scum, the remaining blue will die the next night. This will leave me, you, and da0ud. I'm not scum, so if you're trying to make a case on me at that point and you are town, we lose. da0ud is going to vote you. I am going to vote you. The only thing that would change this situation is if da0ud was the scum, and you pull together a nail-biting case that absolutely and completely convinces me. I don't expect you to do it, because I think da0ud is 100% town. However, if you are the last scum, that's your only choice. (Now that I've brought it up, it really isn't a choice ^_^ We'll see it coming.) If you don't think da0ud is scum, and you yourself are not scum, then Sylv is scum. The end. There really is no reason thinking further unless you want to entertain the possibility that I am lying, or that our blues are lying - these may be fun mental exercises, but they will not lead to a plausible end-game scenario worth thinking about. | ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
It is ridiculously emotional and faking it would be insanely hard. Also, he took me at my word immediately based on my freaking out lol.He feels trustworthy =l I really can't justify it a whole lot more than that. da0ud just feels ridiculously genuine and I've read his response on page 75 like ten times. He doesn't even bother mentioning Alsn - like, "OBVIOUSLY Alsn is town, why bring it up !?" - is the feeling I get. And indeed, Alsn is town. He's reading me solidly town, and I know he's right. If Rad brought a truly stellar case against him in LYLO with the three of us, I would consider reconsidering - but... I honestly don't really see that happening. (Sylver should flip scum, anyways.) Is that good enough? ^^ Hehe. | ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
| ||
|
Obzy
United States525 Posts
I have a few specific comments to make: Djo, your posting rate was a pleasure and (IMO) helped enormously with town's (my) confidence in reads. kudos ^^ [props to dead debears for the same reason ]Mr CC: :c I really do apologize for my rudeness after flip lol, it was out of place and impolite. Sorry! Hapa: 1 million mafia-dollars for you, sir - I harassed Hapa with no less than 19 PMs and received quick and thought-guiding responses to each of them; if anybody playing town ever reads this [when not playing this game, but is interested in a newbie mafia game,] - TALK TO YOUR COACHES! Incredibly, incredibly helpful. I don't know what to say about my flipout post, besides that I was being honest :x The fact it removed suspicion from me so thoroughly was an enormous relief lol. It would've been interesting if everybody had known VT flavor from an early point; Clarity almost certainly would've been lynched D1, but it's impossible to say where town would've gone from there, IMO. Thanks to our hosts for being prompt with answers, the humorous flavor, and their time investiture! Thanks to everybody for playing! :D I don't know if I intend to play again ^^;;; Very, very stressful. Saturday afternoon, an irl friend asked me (we have a LAN-room type thing) if I was going to be reading my forum game all day - I'd probably put 12 hours or so into it at that point, with only a handful of actual posts. It would be interesting to see faster games, although I'd imagine they'd seem incredibly hectic in comparison - I'll definitely be in the /obs threads though! ((( Hehe. I did have a hearty chuckle at some of your posts, the lynch on you was obviously far too fast in retrospect, and nobody (well, not I~) could've seen the VT flavor being known to more than just us VTs. :xWith regards to Clar and Sylv - WP ^^ I had fun, I appreciate Sylv conceding hehe. I don't think he was in a winnable scenario, so I think it's a sign of good sportsmanship. I look forward to watching you guys (if you play again, Sylv~) as townies as well! Thanks everybody~ (and debears, it's Obzy not Obsy >:0!) | ||
| ||
