|
Here's a lurker nobody talks about much:
I'm reading atreides filter and I want to reopen the case against him
During day 1 he makes posts saying how he would be ok with lynching killing, but he never goes in depth into his killing read. He just says how killing is a possible lynch candidate. Then he makes a post after the vote deadline, but before the night post. So at this point if he's town he should not know the alignment of drazak. He says he would have preferred a no-lynch over drazak... does he already know that drazak will flip green? And why a no-lynch over killing, who he had mentioned several times as a lynch candidate? He just doesn't want to lynch lurkers? Atreides why do you think lurker lynching is bad? It allows lurkers to stay in the thread and gives mafia a free nightkill and no risk of any of them being lynched for lurking.
He also said that "it's obvious now that the mafia had a strong hand" in the drazak vote. That is a very bold claim to make. Not only is it extremely confident in its own accuracy, but it also suggests that there are potentially a good amount of mafia voting for drazak. Well kush would be the only possibility from my perspective (and kush I would be the only possibility from your perspective if you're town) so I do not see how he could be so sure of that claim if he is town.
He does make a case against me. His first accusation is that I hopped on the sharrant bandwagon. I've tunneled sharrant the hardest out of anyone and atreides even admits that I was suspicious of sharrant before I "hopped on" sonic's bandwagon. Another part of his case is that my posting has been "ineffectual" compared to my posting from previous games. I've had huge filters in all my previous games but I can't really remember a previous game where I was extremely accurate with my reads... I don't know where this claim comes from. Atreided how were my votes/reads in previous games so much better than in this game that you think I'm scum?
In D2 his comments on the main lynch candidates (stutters remedy dandel) are:
On September 23 2012 07:40 Atreides- wrote:
ugghhh
Stutters is a bad vote, right now I don't feel comfortable lynching him without him posting more. I think that his lurking is him genuinely being busy rather than intentional (due to his lurking last game. he once went 2-3 days without a post).
After my last post I would have felt strong about voting thrawn, I think I made a good case against him but it was pretty much swept under the rug. Seems like I'm alone here, and there's no chance of him getting votes. However at the very least I suggest looking into my post and his filter...being active doesn't make you town.
Dandel doesn't come off as scummy to me yet, and I posted earlier why I didn't buy the case against rethos. He's open to lynching debears, stutters, remedy, and possibly another lurker. Meaning if he's mafia it's less likely for these others to be mafia as well.
Remedy...I think he's a last resort lynch at best. I can't make any reads off him. His activity is in line with what he said his work schedule would be. His posts are too short, he votes without explanation, and his arguments don't make much sense...but I have trouble differentiating this between mafia and confused town.
From what I can see his reads are pretty much null on the three main candidates.
Read sonic's filter during N1. He spends a huge amount of time going after atreides. I think it's most likely that it was the mafia who nk'd sonic (at least 2 roleblocks are already accounted for so I doubt the specific mafia who did the nk was roleblocked) So what I'm seeing is the person who mafia decided it was important to kil was someone who was strongly going after atreides.
FOS Atreides-
|
Reread the part of my case where I say how atreides was saying that the mafia had a strong hand in the drazak vote. I need to retract part of that because sonic hadn't flipped yet, nor stutters. and sharrant wasn't confirmed yet. But saying that they had a "strong hand" is still a pretty bold claim. And the fact that there are so many confirmed town among the people who voted for drazak makes perfect sense for why a scum-atreides would make such a claim.
|
On September 24 2012 06:53 Atreides- wrote:I think that killer's posts have improved a bit since day 1. Looking at his filter from the previous game, he didn't post much there either. Lynching him at this point would be a joke when we can make good reads on other players. If he's town, that makes him a good topic of discussion for scum. Hell, just look at how the last two lurker lynches turned out. Seems like everyone has suspected kush at some point or another...after the recent flips I'm leaning on him being town though. The way he switches stances so easily looks genuine to me, I don't think scum would be as likely to do that. @thrawn - hopefully you and jacob will be the topics of discussion for today, so your post is a good diversion to that. A trainwreck of a post at that. Show nested quote +On September 22 2012 12:37 thrawn2112 wrote:
Atreides the timezone explanation is not the one I was looking for that would set aside my doubts about your coming into the thread right as the deadline happened but it's believable. Also, the fact that marv posted about the no-lynch idea right after you posted your last post before deadline makes me accept that your no-lynch comment probably wasn't some sort of lie that you made up on the spot and had no prior knowledge of. The one thing that I'm stuck on is why you would think a no lynch would be better than lynching killing who you had previously said was an acceptable lynch. But anyways those were the main points of my N1 case against you. Apart from those points you've said some questionable things but quality =/= indication of alignment especially in a newbie game so you're down to a null-read. Wanna see you post more as that improves the quality of the read I can make on you.
I don't think atreides should be a lynch candidate. The stuff I just posted is enough for me to not have a scumread on him anymore. He has been lurking but if we have to go for a lurker stutters is a much better choice.
That was your post from earlier...and yet you bring up the same arguments AGAIN. Before I was a null-read, and now you FOS me? For the same thing?
I was reading sonic's filter and the arguments he made against you looked good, and then he got nk'd, so I decided it was time to look at your filter again. And as for me lowering my suspicion because of the 1 minute delay between your last post and the no-lynch blue post, that doesn't point to town or scum. You could have just then figured out that no-lynch was a possibility if you are town or scum. My new case is about the context of those posts. You post right after deadline but before drazak flipped green, saying how you didn't approve of the drazak lynch. Do you see how that looks scummy? Then you make a very strong suggestion that there could be a large presence of mafia among the drazak vote, and since you've said that the only thing that has happened are people who voted for drazak flipping green/blue, or becoming confirmed masons.
On September 24 2012 06:53 Atreides- wrote:You address only some of the stuff I made in that post, the stuff that I myself admitted was weak. You didn't respond to my strongest point: + Show Spoiler +Next, what I think is a huge slip, his vote on drazak: Initially he believes that both killer and drazak are scummy lurkers and is willing to vote for either: On September 20 2012 07:16 thrawn2112 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 20 2012 07:10 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Fuuuuck, we don't have a decent counter wagon to Sharrant or Cubu. How many posters are even around right now? How many would consider changing their vote? I'd say killing or drazak Sharrant votes drazak as a lurker policy lynch. Sonic votes based on the change in his meta and his bandwagon vote on Sharrant. Kush votes and admits to bandwagoning. Thrawn copycats Sonic's reasoning and votes drazak after kush. Drazak's post: On September 20 2012 07:27 drazak wrote:
Ok, I'm home now.
When I decided to vote sherrant I honestly was just bandwagoning, I couldn't find anyone with a good read other than the lurkers.
For the moment, I'd much rather vote cubu, he doesn't have anything to add and if he does flip mason it confirms our other mason. I was on my phone earlier so I had no way to write a longer more descriptive post. I'm going to go through some filters during night and see if I can come up with some suspicions to start D2 with, presuming I make it through the night. Thrawn's post: On September 20 2012 07:30 thrawn2112 wrote:
I would go with drazak. Previously my lurker lynch back up was killing but drazak made that retarted vote. I've also had earlier supicions of him maily because of his first post, where he goes out of his way to defend accusations against him that haven't even happend yet.
So killing/drazak but I say drazak.
vote count?
Once the focus is on drazak, thrawn changes his opinion and believes drazak is the stronger vote. Now, what really stands out to me is this: drazak literally admitted to bandwagoning. In thrawn's recent post in the previous page, he says this: + Show Spoiler +On September 22 2012 13:53 thrawn2112 wrote:
I've been looking at the final vote count. I think it's very very safe to assume that at least 1 mafia voted for drazak. The people who voted for drazak are: Sharrant, Sonic Death Monkey, kushm4sta, thrawn2112, Stutters695. So then I removed sharrant, sonic, and myself, which leaves kush and stutters. Out of those two I think it's more likely stutters is scum. And when I look at their votes, kush made that retarded "ok looks like drazzak is the bandwagon then" vote. Originally it looked suspicious but consider this... why the fuck would a mafia player bandwagon onto a townie lynch and then use such a terrible phrase? Especially to even include the word bandwagon? That imo, is a colossal error that I don't think anyone would be capable of. (well maybe yourharry would find some way to rationalize it) So, that leaves stutters who already looks suspicious, both for lurking, and because of how he stops lurking to pop in the thread once someone calls him out.
So if all the follwoing is true, Stutters has to be scum
1: At least 1 mafia voted for drazak
2: There are no holes we've overlooked in sharrant's mason claim
3: My reasoning about kush's vote is extremely likely to be correct
(4: and an additional one for people other than myself would be that thrawn is town)
For me of course 4 is 100 true. 2 is so close to 100 percent true it may as well be 100 percent. Then I think 3 is the next most likely and 1 is probably the part of the theory I have the most hesitations about. However I think 1 and 3 are solid enough.
So in other words I think stutters is a pretty damn good lynch option. Not only for all the reasons just mentioned but also because he's a huge lurker. So kush isn't suspicious because mafia would never admit to bandwagon posting, but drazak was? This is a very big contradiction. That's two times you've been completely contradictory. Wanted to get this out there first, going to respond to some other things in the meantime.
I said my vote for drazak was mostly because of that vote. Yes, kush made a shitty vote, but there's a difference between them. Drazak's vote was just s simple vote. No explanation for the vote or anything. While kush's vote did look strange, it was so strange thatI didn't believe a mafia would make it. I don't think a mafia would come out and state: "hey guys I'm joining the most popular bandwagon."
|
Hey sharrant are you reading the thread right now this very moment?
|
Ok I got a question for you that I want you to respond to as soon as you can... confirm you're looking at the thread again?
|
Can you post the mason qt again? I don't doubt you're mason but at this point I want to consider every possibility. So please post it as soon as you humanly can.
|
|
|
|
|
Ok. I don't think there's any way you could have made all that up just now, time stamps and everything. Just had to make sure though because if you had somehow fooled us earlier then we'd be completely fucked.
|
Uh something I noticed... sharky makes a post in the qt, you responded to it, and then you ask marv if sharky got sent the link?
|
You ask me why I Fos you again for the same things. First, because of sonic's filter, and second because I'm not actually accusing you of the same things:
The reason I let off earlier on you was because the things I was accusing you of (like lying about the no-lynch idea)...... was because I thought of a reason why town-atreides could have honestly found out about no-lynch when marv posted about it. The new case is about the context. I explained it as best I could earlier so I going to post it again:
"My new case is about the context of those posts. You post right after deadline but before drazak flipped green, saying how you didn't approve of the drazak lynch. Do you see how that looks scummy? Then you make a very strong suggestion that there could be a large presence of mafia among the drazak vote, and since you've said that the only thing that has happened are people who voted for drazak flipping green/blue, or becoming confirmed masons."
You're not my top scumread, it's just an FOS. Right now I'm most interested in killing.
|
dandel you still here? I know you (if you're town) don't think you're a likely nk target but that gives you no reason to withhold reads
|
for the hell of it lol? I've only ever drank in the morning to get rid of a hangover
|
|
|
If there's a cop in this game he might want to consider roleclaiming sometime during D3, especially if things start getting dirty. He will obviously be setting himself up to be nk'd but I'd rather risk that than missing out on having a cop's past night checks when we're in such a bad situation. 5 towns have been removed so assuming the standard of 3 mafia which is all I've ever seen, then that means we're at 5 town vs 3 mafia or 4 town vs 3 mafa if there's an sk and in either case having the night reads of a cop, even if they all came up green would help us out a lot. Only way I see having cop claim being ineffective is if his night checks were all on people who have already flipped. So cop if you're out there, it's an idea to think about as D3 progresses.
|
|
|
The mason thing first: Typing "gogogo" and "post as soon as you humanly can" is so sharrant would know that I'm expecting him to answer right then, immediately. If I just said "can you post the mason chat sometime" and he posted it like 30 minutes later, I wouldn't know if it was because he wasn't in a rush or if he was busy making it up. It only came about during the night becuase that's when sharrant posted. He hadn't posted in awhile and I saw he has just posted something else, so I needed to take advantage of him being in the thread at that moment.
For switching targets in D2: Not sure exactly what your argument is, other than that it was me trying to confusion. Well I do post very frequently and I refresh the mafia forums several times/hour so if something occurs to me while reading new posts then I'm going to bring it up. And there is more than one scum right? When I stop tunneling someone it's not always because I am no longer suspicious of them. For instance, I still think killing is scummy but my next filter to go through is probably going to be dandel's and the D1 filter of rethos.
The reason why I didn't want town to talk about lurkers forever: I've played in a few games where town makes a big huge deal out of saying exactly why lurkers are so awful and people either agree or disagree but either way it goes on for far too long. Usually in those cases town ends up agreeing to do a lurker lynch... they right out and say it in the thread. So the rest of D1 ends up being the townies saying who they think is the lurkiest, lurkers saying "I'm not lurking as much as this guy," and mafia who blend in by saying who they think is the lurkiest. Our D1 discussion didn't need to follow down that path... so I deliberately said something that would get the first accusations flying.
For my defense of you: I saw nothing in your posts that made you look mafia, and I did see things that made you look town. For instance when you agreed with me about drazak you bolded those words in his post, called attention to them, and made it a part of your argument, which was not a part of my argument. So in that example you had done independent analysis rather than latch on to the exact argument of my idea.... something I associate with town more than mafia. And maybe I was a little biased towards you... after all I was explaining to sonic in a pretty straightforward way exactly why I had made that "lynch last player" post, and he just didn't understand what I was saying, then you come in and try to explain it to him and then people start getting suspicious of you just for being logical.
Voting for drazak: It was done under the combination of him being a lurker, and his vote with no justification. You say killing had an equally weird vote... that killing vote you quoted happened quite a bit earlier, the drazak thing happened after my main read had just claimed mason and I was trying to decided who to vote on. And yes that killing vote does look weird and only further adds to my suspicions of killing.
##Vote: KillingTime
|
Atreides are you scum? You're the 2nd person to jump on my mislynch bandwagon and you're trying to call out kush and sparky to do the same. I wouldn't have a problem with you voting me because I've been your top pick for awhile but specifically mentioning kush and sparky reeks of bad intentions.
|
Why would you call out people to vote as scum? In order to get a mislynch. You called out sparky who obviously is the weakest (sorry sparky!) player in the game and would be easy to sway onto your lynch and kush who has been clearly thinking that I was scum lately, another easy person to sway onto your vote.
|
##Unvote
Here's what I see on atreides:
D1, Comes in after the vote deadline but before the flip to tell us all how he didn't like the drazak lynch. Feeling guilty because he's scum and so he tries to gain town cred? N1, Sonic and I both go after him for that, sonic gets nk'd and I get roleblocked. D2 he avoids drama concerning the main lynch candidates (here) and decides to safely cast his vote on me who had no chance of being lynched that day. N2 I FOS him and yet again I am roleblocked. D3 Debears votes for me, then atreides comes in and votes for me while trying to manipulate others into doing so. (kush who I think is town and could easily vote for me as I've been one of his main suspicions, and sharky who has shown that he really isn't capable of making his own reads)
##Vote: Atreides-
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
