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Newbie Mini Mafia XXVI - Page 3

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JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 09:41 GMT
#419
Yeah we need to avoid a mislynch for sure. If he is breaking the play to win rule then there is nothing we can really do. (he would only be breaking it as town as this could be a mafia strat) Kush is so much like his town meta though, this said his meta is almost designed to be both town or mafia. I wouldn't vote kush right now because there is a less likely chance he is mafia and sonic seems to be fine for the moment (haven't spotted anything).

Like we said before Kville is the back up lynch if we can't get a for sure lynch. This is why I am trying to put the pressure on other people in hope of a slip. We still have plenty of time in the day though.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 10:22 GMT
#422
I HAVE looked through those filters and because if it I want more people to do the same. It's obvious I am the big one going at killing at least so I am in a spot if he is lynched and flips town. Despite almost nobody thinking he is scum (after his list post day one people all thought he was town{not going to start the lists are easy to hide behind stuff again}) Also I don't think I am latching on to other peoples reads if I am going for killing and Xato. (xato maybe but you must realise almost everyone has been accused so almost everyone thinking the same could be a bandwagon move).

The reason I am putting the pressure on Killing and Xato so much is so they explain what is going on. Assuming you are not mafia the likelyhood of one of them being one is high. So I agree we should put the heat on him that is what I have been trying to do. I haven’t commited to Xato as I am waiting for a response.

Your and thrawns stutters read does make sense... motivation over activity.

Whose analysis was I latching onto there? The only analysis part I latched onto was the first line. From kush going for Xatalos onwards that was all mine. (With exception to the wagon when tired up part) I am confirming parts of other people’s analysis that makes sense.

Also the case against kush isn’t strong, as I said before you (not bad wagoning I promise...) It leaves more reason to Drazak being scum than Kush.
On September 05 2012 18:12 JacobStrangelove wrote:

Kush is getting pushed on by Darzak who had both the people against him lynched. This makes it more likely that he is scum than kush is but we shouldn't fall into the trap if thinking kush is confirmed town just because thrawn thought so.


I probably should point out that part of the reason I had a town read for WeeTee is that I happen to know his style (see his first post where he mentions it’s good to see me) and it reeks of town. With this (although he may have fooled me) I thought Xatatos read of WeeTee when Stutters was available strange. Also with killing he is sceptical of “meta” reads

On September 03 2012 23:57 KillingTime wrote:
My point was that I did not think your town reads added much to the thread, partly because I am very sceptical of "meta" reads at this point given that we all have 3 or less games.

Sure but its more information, that can only be helpful. If WeeTee fits his meta (he does) and he fits the meta I know he is unlikely to be scum. This and the fact that he had to leave due to time problems(although that may have been after my time line is a little messed up) then surely stutters were a better lynch. For this reason I have been thinking that killing is mafia sudo protecting stutters. Since the focus is on me now I need to say The Killing /xatalos thing was simply a hypothesis I was using to draw them out. (It was based on someone else’s analysis yes) It drew out Killing and he responded well. (although it was list like) So I am simply waiting for Xatalos to reenter the thread. If he reenters the thread and doesn’t post good responses I will turn the dogs in my head towards him.




JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 10:47 GMT
#423
Also as killing said with him changing at this point (making me think he is less scum) about asking why stutters case is weaker than imcasy in xatalos's opinion. So the same thing I used to think strongly about with Killing is applied to xatalos (but I am waiting for the reply)
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 14:17 GMT
#426
WE HAVE AN ARGUMENT! WE HAVE REASONING! I didn't even realise it was him until I saw the last line. This is amazing. We need Xatalos to respond to Kville's my and whoever elses questions. Just so you know my questions were what do you think of killing and why WeeTee over stutters.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 14:25 GMT
#427
imcasey*
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 05 2012 22:36 GMT
#442
If it’s a standard early lurk accusation then why mention it?
Yes I did throw around connections and because of that I now know that both you and killing are far less likely to be scum. Remember there are town motivations for accusing people especially early day one when you don’t have much to go on. You can look at the reactions and see how people respond or ignore things. For example, Xatatos just re-entered the thread and didn’t mention a thing about the accusations against him. Whereas both you and killing have without giving me much to go on(in way of mafia reads).
I tend to scum hunt differently because if I can confirm enough people town logically the rest must be mafia. Then you can look at the people remaining and go from most suspicious to least.
Of course I find the argument weak there was almost no argument strong at all day one. Wouldn’t lynch cubu because cubu was an easy day two lynch. I have been taking a risk with killing insinuations however due to that and the responses I have gotten as I said in the last through posts he is getting more and more town like. Opposed to Xatatos.

I doubt it is still the best course of action to vig shoot kville. While it is odd to go from random to logical and clear. (something I should try doing it seems) Maybe he got a prod from one of the mods about the rules? Not sure if that happens (and it would only happen as town) also if he does start posting like this then we should be able to find something out quickly. Stutters is still under the radar, this is not mindless agreeing this is fact. Happy about your comment on killing

Turns out I need to go so I will cut this off here and be back later.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 03:51 GMT
#460
On September 06 2012 07:39 kushm4sta wrote:

Who are you talking to?
Can you try harder to make your posts understandable? Like if you are replying to something make it clear what you are replying to.


Hey I was in a hurry 10 min before the train left. I was talking to sonic. Will read and bbl.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 04:13 GMT
#461
Lol kush chill...
But you want people to chime in so I will just to be clear I will state what I think is happening feel free to correct me. We are discussing Kville being bad town according to Kush and you are focusing on Drazzak. Kreb is saying Drazzak as a town read and then kville as a focus point. Assuming we are ignoring stutters (who is the person I would go for over xatalos due to the useful town problem if the flip goes wrong) I will chime in.

I think you are both wrong in some respects. First off Kush might have a slight OMGUS syndrome to drazak and Kreb is doing a horrible job defending Drazak (with the over analysis part). Considering that xatalos and drazak are under suspicion there could be a connection but I will have to look into it for myself. Just stating what is going on.

While his case was suspicious, on kush it was impossible. A mafia wouldn’t push a case that is so blatantly hard to even get rolling. I considered it however decided soon after that it was not the case. This is very important. It’s literally an impossible case.

The read kreb has on drazak is fine for the most part with the exception to the guilt thing. That is a way over analysis... that is kind of the stuff I do. When I do that stuff though I don’t make it my all in all case for truth it’s just circumstantial. You spent way to long on that one line while it is true it’s only a slight and I mean SLIGHT bonus read for drazak. Honestly I would go with drazak as more of a town read(because of him pushing an impossible case) but I haven’t checked on on the xatalos/drazak defence yet. So I will post this and do that now.

JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 04:31 GMT
#462
Also on drazak he posted his twitter gave the option for photos about the move (yes going though the filters) and sleeps strange hours. He would have to be a master scum. For me He is town.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 09:51 GMT
#480
I am going to reply to sonic in this post as quoted
On September 06 2012 17:35 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 06 2012 13:31 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Also on drazak he posted his twitter gave the option for photos about the move (yes going though the filters) and sleeps strange hours. He would have to be a master scum. For me He is town.


Sleeping strange hours and moving is townie? Drazak is pretty much a null read for me atm.


I am just saying he was mostly lurking day one but he had reasons. Sure he might be mafia with these same reasons but we are talking about real reasons that really happened. After that he has been much more active and helpful, this was not the extent of it though read the post right above this and you see my comment about pushing such a solid townie at the time. This said there has been some discussion over kush at the moment now that things have calmed down. (will get to this later)

On September 06 2012 17:15 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
1. I just wanted to include it so that my post would be a fair representation of your suspicion of KillingTime (the post might be helpful later).


Fair enough.

On September 06 2012 17:15 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:

2. Could you provide a post where you explain those town reads clearly? Your writing is really confusing so you need to straight that up.


I will list the townish people most I have given reasons for before.
Sonic
Myself!
Imcasey
Drazak
Killingtime(but I am watching him with a 10 foot pole)
Kreb
This leaves
Stutters
Kville
xatalos
and kush just now (who I am becoming aware of)
Looking at this list kush defends stutters by avoiding talking about him (see drazaks post) this also leaves us seeing xatalos semi defending stutters. Kville is nowhere.

See with a list like this town and scum you can see the links. A kush stutters xalalos team could be the answer. I would vote stutters instead of kville as if we vote kville we get nothing from he flip but you can see what we would gain from a stutters flip.

HOWEVER stutters just posted turning my thoughts to confusion. To be open I will post this the way it was going to be but including stuff referring to the stutters thing.
He says we won’t gain from a stutters flip if he flips town. If he flips scum however we would gain everything. So he says lynch killing. If killing flips mafia then I am probably confirmed town “yay” but if he flips green town town will instant lynch me. Which if stutters is mafia would win the game. Also would like to point out that a lynch on kville reveals nothing as well.
Associative cases are pretty bad I must admit but they can provide a little information.

On September 06 2012 17:15 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
3. Why were you attacking KillingTimes though? Please explain the reason you've been attacking him all game and what it was in his postings that made you think he looks more town now.

Btw it's really easy to slip away from questions by not quoting the post you're replying to, so please reply to these questions.


I was attacking killingtime because he seemed to be ignoring the things I said about him in favour of just posting reads. The reason I town read you is you seem to have responded better initially so I temporarily town read you. I was getting frustrated as his semi avoidant approach however as the game went on he started replying in a manner that I would expect. The reason I attacked you and killing time so much is I realised you both thought in the same manner so

1. If you were both mafia we were screwed unless I could force you to make a slip early.
2. By attacking him I could have more to look at
3. If I could confirm you guys town it would make scum hunting so much easier.

It wasn’t so much about scum slips you had made (I was just nitpicking) it was about forcing the two most scary people. Into a situation they probably would. Part of the reason I think he is town now is I haven’t found anything unusual in his postings. (Apart from a growing annoyance of me which is to be expected and I apologise for) Although there might be something in stutters case just now.

Drazak seems to be having the same idea
On September 06 2012 18:05 drazak wrote:
Accusations are how you gain information, you pressure people, find out what they're thinking, see how they react. I was pressured; generally you guys decided my reaction was town. I pressured kush and he scumslipped and you're not doing anything, wow.

Although just a note kush is known for overreaction for no apparent reason.
Yeah I understand, I was just really short for time at the time and wanted to get a post in reply up.

On a side note how long till lynch? I think the night period messed up my internal clock.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 10:33 GMT
#484
The case is associative but also not entirely based on it. Kreb has made his points (very good points in particularLook at these and respond) killing his and I mine.. (Although you confused me half way through it when you posted{and lol list discussion -_-}) and also your point about if you flip town we get nothing isn't entirely true. Will put a bad light on killing and several others and I am sure we would have enough time looking at day one and day two to get a mafia lynch. While we would be in a bad spot if you are town if killing is town you or I get lynched the next day (probably and let’s be honest that would be a good decision) One of us is probably town (considering my interaction with you{you hardly posted so you haven’t interacted with me}) So it would likely result in a mafia win. However what happens if someone flips is often speculation so not a great defence or argument. For example we thought (or at least I did) cubu flipping would give us something....

I am going to bed in around 6 hours. If you haven't responded to krebs points in particular in a proper way I will likely vote you over kville. (as kville was the backup after all)
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 10:46 GMT
#486
What about sharing scum reads? or is that down to time as well. You accused killing of the same thing.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 12:52 GMT
#501
I am really conflicted between Stutters and Killing Time. I have been trying to get killing lynched all game but thought stutters was safer for lurking. However lurkers that make sence are something to consider. Killing is very non commital he has always been non commital. I realise while he hasn't slipped up is probably because he hasn't done anything. Oh and thanks casey I have no problem getting in a fight xD.

Stutters is actually making good points, like, really good points about killing. I have known something was up with killing all game and lets be honest while he hasn't defended himself the best it's ok for the moment (stutters). So until killing shows back up I actually have to vote for him. (although I hate the early force vote ;()

I will however continue to look into xatalos and kville but as I have said before I don't agree with kville lynch. Completely not final still need to check things but we should start voting early like you said (I think kush?) I will probably end up voting Killing or Xatalos

##Vote KillingTime
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 13:01 GMT
#502
In other words now that Stutters has answered the questions and come up with good points it's now killings turn to explain why he was so non commital.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 14:37 GMT
#503
Also you need to vote in the voting thread imcasey just did but kush needs to.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 15:31 GMT
#506
I am back to lynching you again because of the non commital style and posts stutters brought up. It is the most likely explanation so it is one both town and mafia would use. Simmiar to Xatalos and his military issues. Also I wasn't not sure about you I was suspicious of you however not to a sure extent. However was satisfied by not having hard evidence until stutters brought up the non committal thing. All the things I mentioned before are slight circumstantial evidence posts which is why I am currently lynching you over xatalos. As xatalos just has the military/ not commital thing where as you have the non committal thing and all the circumstantial evidence posts.

The reason I am going for you currently is I prefer you over xatalos and xatalos over kville. Nobody else is on my list right now as stutters has appeared to be quite logical over the last few pages. I am using a style similar to the vote swapping style but without actually voting. (until now) Also combining this with the one player focus in a way. Admittedly I am doing this poorly. Link to scum hunting methods

Also the fact that it is a stream of conscience style would only work in my favour as town (while being hard to read for the others) as it means I am being completely open and saying what I think. If I was mafia I would have to be the most amazing genius there is to consistently drop these kinds of posts without giving a watertight case to anyone. Also can you stop abusing my filter It seems like an attempt to lower my credibility. While it is a unique style it’s not that bad is it?
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 16:10 GMT
#508
On September 05 2012 22:55 Kville wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 05 2012 11:24 Xatalos wrote:
I'm in extreme hurry right now, but some comments on the recent events...

Farewell thrawn2112, you will be missed :/ Can't say I'm too surprised about the night kill, though.

kushm4sta, you're severely underestimating my contributions. At the moment I have a pretty good case against Sonic Death Monkey and WeeTee (imcasey), and although the case against Sonic Death Monkey is a bit outdated, the case against WeeTee (imcasey) is quite good IMO. At least I think it's much stronger than the policy lynching of kville or the suspicions toward Stutters695. I agree that I could have been more active so far, but when I look at my own filter, I've scumhunted and/or pushed the discussion forward in every post. Much more than can be said about most players so far.

Now I have to leave, but I'll be able to post again later today. My vote is going for imcasey, as I previously reasoned. I'll be looking at each player's filters later today, though.

##Vote imcasey

(Btw, my vote for Cubu was in real hurry as well, so I indeed should have reasoned it better, but I just had no time. I'll get back to it later!)


Well WeeTee Did get replaced which could be the reason why he was playing so "safe" and conservative. He badnwagoned to avoid a modkill in order to fulfill the replacement, so it seems. The fact that there is little to no evidence other than "he was playing safe" doesn't really seem like a sure vote to go for, unless you are trying for another mislynch. You vote and leave the first day and you do it again the second time. It seems like your strategy seems to be "POP" then lurk. which seems a bit suspicious.

And making a Vigi shoot for a town for the reason of "just cuase" seems rather irresponsible and just loses a town at the end.
Show nested quote +
I don't think kville is Mafia,

Show nested quote +
If there is a Vigilante, kville would make for a good shot.

You have a town read on me yet you still want to kill me off. Why lower the odds town in such a way?

#FoS Xatalos


He did say this about you though. Your motives for voting Imcasey were horrible (at the time at least, and imo still are) and he pointed it out. I too thought the just cause vig shot would be a very stupid idea. The vote on kville is a policy lynch (not without merit I might add) but you have been very flippent with your voting. Where did you lose your town read or is it still just a policy lynch? If it is a policy lynch and you don't think he is mafia you know where this would put us right? (well I understand bandwagoing to stay alive I guess) This is annoying because it looks like nobody is going to agree with my thoughts on killing so I set an alarm to wake me up 2 hours before the deadline. This should give me time to read the thread and make a decision.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 23:08 GMT
#567
On September 07 2012 07:40 Kreb wrote:
Im barely reading this thread anymore since Kville came back. Its all just a shitfest last 2 pages. Cant we just put the thread on hold until he gets kicked out and resume after?


No that's a horrible idea.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 23:12 GMT
#568
There seem to be too few people on the xatalos wagon, this means both mafia and town are voting kville. Voting xatalos.
JacobStrangelove
Profile Joined August 2012
Australia1572 Posts
September 06 2012 23:14 GMT
#569
Although it could be a bus if xatalos is mafia as well and they want him alive over kville.
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