EPTGravan (5) : Shady Sands, ShiaoPi, Toadesstern, Darth Punk, Rewok
Maverick32x (2) : strongandbig, grush57
Shady Sands (2) : Gravan, Bill Murray
S&B(6): Sloosh, Kreb, MMToss, Mav, imallinson, Hopeless1der
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TL Mafia LVII - Page 4
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Gravan (5) : Shady Sands, ShiaoPi, Toadesstern, Darth Punk, Rewok Maverick32x (2) : strongandbig, grush57 Shady Sands (2) : Gravan, Bill Murray S&B(6): Sloosh, Kreb, MMToss, Mav, imallinson, Hopeless1der ? | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
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Kreb
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Kreb
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Kreb
4834 Posts
Though, If this is a sloosh bus and mafia wins....  | ||
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Kreb
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Kreb
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Kreb
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As far as I know we don't actually know whether we've got Assassins in this game or not. If we have some it's highly likely that BM and S&B are those Assassins because hosts don't usually give 3rd party roles to new guys because they're hard to play. Is that really so? I thought it hosts were randoming most of the time... | ||
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Kreb
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Kreb
4834 Posts
People I'd consider high priority voting target atm: Toad, Rewok and maaaybe BM too. Not gonna spend another big post on BM, but I'll spend one on Toad and Rewok respectively. Toad - Woah, theres too many little small things here I'd like to mention, but without a doubt the biggest one is his interactions with S&B and his continous assassin painting of him. But, as Ive explained before Ive been very paranoid about Toad. That probably means Ive thought a lot more about "Why would Toad want to write this here if he was mafia?" than Ive done with any other player. I'll just list a bunch of things I thought were very conviniently said, or things which happened which would be very convinient for a possible mafia-Toad (incoming overusage of the word convenient): 1) This post: + Show Spoiler + On September 07 2012 06:59 Toadesstern wrote: Toads very important thoughts mostly about VETs and whatever else I consider important so far I'm doing this post because I'm probably going to die tonight. I consider myself a vet and most people probably consider me a vet as well but unlike BC I usually don't draw protection from medics for two reasons I don't need to go into detail right now, although the reasoning becomes apparant after reading the whole thing :p First important topic: VETs in this game
That's my take on who's a vet in this game. A lot of people think it's hard to analyse vets to a point that they almost got a mental blockade when it comes to vets, that's why I'm going to post some about those 4/5 although I don't have anything major yet, though I've got a conclusion I'm quite comfortable with. First things first, I did this post (+ Show Spoiler [click me!] + On September 06 2012 07:40 Toadesstern wrote: Bam. Watcher on people like BC and me please. Mafia will want to hit that. I am an incredible controversial guy and a shitton of people are scared like crazy about me because I'm apparently unreadable according to them. I'm a little like BC-junior, or maybe WBG-junior in that regard because people tell me I'm looking pro-town no matter of alignment every single game. So usually I'm getting the same old crap about me every game "Toad is looking townish, but that's a null-tell because Toad always looks that way". Take AC for example, Radfield actually told his scumbuddies to just attack me for looking good because I'm always looking good. WBG called the play VE and I did in LI "the best bus TL has ever seen", he said I'm unreadable in PTP, I totally destroyed town in magic and surely everyone remembers the "Annul game" (sup palmer :p). Except for PyourPoison I destroyed pretty much every town I played against as mafia and every single game I was called a townie by the vast majority of the game while telling people what to do. That's the reason I'm getting these bullshit arguments like "Toad is unreadable" / "Toad is looking town but that means nothing" all the time. No matter if I'm town or mafia and frankly I was expecting to hear something like that from a mafia-player because it's an incredible easy approach to attack someone because you can just say that EVERY single game. Sadly it never happened. However I still ended up getting some reactions although they're minor ones. tl;dr / Summary so far:
That leaves us with Foru and DrH. DrH still feels odd although I can't put my finger on it. Foru feels way to cautios when he's posting. I'm almost certain one of those 2 got to be mafia and considering that my guts are telling me that foru feels cautios I'd rather bet on him being mafia by some degree. The thing about this is that it's not a clear case. What I've got about those 3 (BM / foru / drH) so far is very minor and not worth making a case about so I'm not going to. However process of elimination is a nice approach for those kind of people and that being said I really doubt BM or BC are mafia. People who are not vets but should be a topic Ottox: No need to talk about him I guess DoYouHas: He's looking bad when posting but I actually like his answers strongandbig: That guy should be scared as shit about me but he isn't. Not at all. To be precise he's even pretty buddy-ish with me. I think he knows I'm not mafia. Do not like. BroodKingEXE: Weirdest vote from d1. Other than that he's fine but the vote really looks like "let's scatter at least SOMEWHAT, just pretend you forgot to unvote BKE" If Ottox somehow manages to survive the night you've got to lynch him no matter what. It's actually quite possible that we've got vigs thinking "well we probably got a bunch of vigs who want to shoot him so I don't need to as well. No need to quadrupel-stack him". I've been in that situation as well and ended up shooting my #2 reads instead of my #1 reads (AC comes to mind  ) because I thought someone else would take care of the #1 read anyways because the guy was pretty much confirmed mafia.Ottox definitly is the best lynch if he survives. BKE & S+B are mentioned because I want people to check their filter as well. I'm not set on lynching them yet but they're the best candidates I've got besides the "usual" ones. I'd rather not have people just forget about them. That being said I think it's quite likely I'm going to be dead in a couple of minutes so I'm posting this to give a couple of thoughts in case I'm not around any more. They're obviously all pretty vague because it's d1/n1 after all and thereforet it's just a summary. That means you've got to check filters yourself to understand what I'm talking about and wether or not you agree with me. Regretted not doing that in WoF when I was shot n1 as well ... Right now we're having quite a luxury problem though: We're having to many people doing cases about everyone and their dog. That's totally fine in itself but you guys need to make sure you got some focus tomorrow. Talking about a lot of people is fine but if everyone's like a little gonzaw we'll have 25 people screaming "NO MY CASE IS THE BEST" and mafia has an easy time to pick a fitting case out of the 15915815 existing ones and will push that one. So don't spam the thread too much. This post I just did is already a wall-of-text although I'm only scratching the surface of things when talking about stuff. So keep that in mind tomorrow. And in particular this part: That's the reason I'm getting these bullshit arguments like "Toad is unreadable" / "Toad is looking town but that means nothing" all the time. No matter if I'm town or mafia and frankly I was expecting to hear something like that from a mafia-player because it's an incredible easy approach to attack someone because you can just say that EVERY single game. Sadly it never happened. That, to me, looks like pre-defending against the normal "Toad is unreadable" posts. Convenient to do for a mafia. 2) However, following that thoght, I think his post had a bit of a backlash. Remember me posting this: + Show Spoiler + On September 12 2012 22:50 Kreb wrote: But given the fact that he pretty much told us we should be paranoid as fuck about him (which I very much am) due to how supposedly good he was as mafia, I at least think we could demand a comment. As I said Im not suspicious, Im just paranoid. I trusted him for this lynch, that trust took a bit of a hit. Im wondering if I should renew the trust or not. And I also think I remember someone else also expressing paranoia about Toad, dont quote me on that though, not gonna read through everything to find a sentence about it. I might be wrong. But anyway, after that we saw Toad saying stuff like this: + Show Spoiler + On September 14 2012 04:58 Toadesstern wrote: Also this is nothing special. I'm awesome at playing mafia yet I'm only an average town-player. Mafia left me alive in *whatever the name was* although I was a modconfirmed town mason in that game. But again, a lot of people are paranoid about me, even if I end up being innocent-child-like confirmed. Not saying it's that strong this game but you've got to be really paranoid to consider me a mafia after what happened yesterday. I usually get shot either n1 or survive until lylo. Pretty much nothing inbetween exists in the history of Toad-games so far. You should put your paranoia somewhere else. Maybe something good will come out of it if you target someone else. And this: On September 14 2012 05:59 Toadesstern wrote: sure, I want to know wether or not my doubt is justified. For that to happen I need him to stop acting all paranoid about me. Very convenient to try and get rid of the fact that people have expressed paranoia about him. 3) Him posting an extensive case on Forumite, but not really trying to push the wagon on it. He left that to other people (there was someone pointing this out, dont remember who, not gonna spend the time looking for that one phrase). Very convenient to plant the seed and let others do the hard work. 4) Him compltely going "sit back and watch" style for the last night kill. He was very lightly discussing who to vote. We saw posts like these: On September 13 2012 22:46 Toadesstern wrote: voting for Mementoss to get lynched seems like a good plan for today. Thoughts? On September 14 2012 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: Yeah I'd be willing to lynch anyone out of Gravan, Mementoss and Mav today (so far). But I'm willing to sheep someone else today, for the good of town! On September 15 2012 02:28 Toadesstern wrote: 30 more minutes until I've got to leave. Shady Sands or Gravan? Now these wouldnt have been all too strange if he hadnt been a lot more pushy in his previous cases. Now hes seemingly fine sitting back and enjoying the show. Very convenient. 5) Also not how he switches people very fast in those quotes (MMToss -> Grav/MMToss/Mav -> SS/Grav. And he doesnt seem to keen on explaining why he is switching around all those names. Its like he doesnt have a will at all and just wants to follow. And I do think we can be pretty sure Toad has a will. 6) Him coming into the thread with a "perfect" setup defense at 2.30 am when he (at least according to what he said) wasnt present at lynch time. Hmmm. 7) The claim itself, where he claims tracker (no other confirmed track so far, convenient) and how most of his reads are impossible/hard to confirm. 8) Bringing back the same quote from before: On September 14 2012 04:58 Toadesstern wrote: Also this is nothing special. I'm awesome at playing mafia yet I'm only an average town-player. Mafia left me alive in *whatever the name was* although I was a modconfirmed town mason in that game. But again, a lot of people are paranoid about me, even if I end up being innocent-child-like confirmed. Not saying it's that strong this game but you've got to be really paranoid to consider me a mafia after what happened yesterday. I usually get shot either n1 or survive until lylo. Pretty much nothing inbetween exists in the history of Toad-games so far. Now, he didnt say anything about his town-play in that big post he made early on where he explained his awesome mafia play. But he has certainly done a descent amount of talking about what vets are and that they are good at the game. Then hes suddenly claiming to be an average town player (when we should be asking ourselves why he isnt dead yet, especially since there was a quite unanimous view that he shouldnt get any protection last night). Very convenient to build yourself as an average player to stop such questions from popping up? Oh yes. 9) In light of his tracker claim, doesnt this come off as a bit odd? On September 13 2012 05:30 Toadesstern wrote: So I propose this: Trackers go and track Z-Boson. If he's a Mad Hatter as he says he is and he genuinely believes me to be mafia he already has the bomb placed on me (as he just claimed) and therefore doesn't need to visit someone as he doesn't need to change the bomb and can just leave it on me. If that guy visits someone we've got ourselves a mafia :p Why would you try to direct trackers somewhere if you were a tracker? And to remind you all: These are IN ADDITION to the constant assassin painting of S&B. Paranoia or not, with the S&B flip I do think this looks a bit too fishy to leave alone. | ||
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Kreb
4834 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + Holy shiet this thread gets going quickly! Alright, time to say hi :-) My name's Rewok. I haven't played with any of you before, so I'm gonna take this first post to tell you about my strategy for this game. I'll also give my reads, etc. But that's gonna be further down. Basically, I see the game like this. The goal for mafia is to stay alive. The goal for Town is to get rid of people. Knowing this, Town tends to be more bloodthirsty from the front. While Mafia's best strategy is to target specific people. Town strategy tends to lean towards "getting blood" right away. Because each person gone could kill a mafia. Worst case scenario, you know one person isn't a mafia. And you can get a better read from the filters. Mafia tends to want specific people dead, right away. They have better information. So they tend to skew towards "let's kill THIS PERSON. Otherwise, let's pass on the ban this round." (A little about me: I like to be careful about my scumreads. I'll only give a scumread if I've got a VERY strong hunch. My goal isn't to lynch townies. It's to make sure we use each lynch to nail a mafia and get this game over with quickly. Also - with every townie left alive.) Now that I've revealed this, the meta is gonna change. However, using the current filters from before I posted this, here's what I got: page 9 stop being paranoid - - - - - - READS << ps. holy filters, batman!! >> - - - - - - And: + Show Spoiler + When I say Town Read or Mafia Read, it's gonna be a firm read as far as I can tell. I'm not looking to change or update my reads every 1/2 day. My goal is to make reads that stick, which simply requires more info than we're got so far. (Zero votes and lots of bickering.) He comes into his first mafia game all fine and dandy with perfectly reasonable posting for a newbie, right? But then he completely shifts into lurker mode without saying anything! Would a newbie with all good-hearted and genuine goals not say anything? I find that very unlikely. He is apparently a bit taken by surprise by the amount of posting going on and how much he is supposed to keep up with. Wouldnt a town-newbie really excuse himself? Say stuff like "Im sorry I cant keep up this is taking too much of my time" or "Im not really used to this so Im sorry Im not helping much" or maybe even go as far as to ask for a replacement? We've seen nothing of that, instead he just goes afk completely. This might also be due to a mafia leading the pack (Toad?) telling him to stop with his "Im an innocent townie"-talk to not get attention drawn to him. Maybe mafia prefers him being easily bussable. Last part might have been far fetched by yea, I dont see his play fitting an innocent newbie. | ||
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1&2: Had you been town, these are obviously nothing, and your reasoning is correct. But these two are kind of adding up to the whole picture to me. Alone, they are nothing. 3&4: Ok, my wording of you being "pushy" was probably bad wording on my part. And you focus heavily on me being contradictory (which, if you want to interpret the word pushy in the way you did, theres reason within your claim that I indeed was). But the fact still stands that the way you acted those two nights are very different. And the asking around what other people think (4) is to me very much not your style (see the sentences about will). That, you still havent attempted to explain. 5: Its still an awful lot of switching. And we have this: I very much think he's scum. I like my vote on Mementoss better for the moment though. If only for the reason that I no longer want to lynch Mementoss first. It explains that you are willing to switch off MMToss, but it doesnt explain why you are willing to. Also, I dont see why you'd consider voting on SS unless you at least have an equal scumread on SS as you did on Gravan. If you did have such a scum read, you have explained why (again, why is the key word) you were willing to vote swtich. If you did not have that scum read, you shouldnt have considered SS at all and stayed on Gravan. 6: It was my weakest point probably. And quite frankly your reply to it doesnt really relate to my point six (and you cant really defend yourself against it either, since it was mostly just me going "it seems pretty strange he got that post together at that time so fast"). About what you said in the defense though: Nothing of what you claim you did would be impossible to do as mafia in preparation for later defense. And your point about what happened N1 (which as I said have nothing to do with my point 6) I have a bit of a hard time to relate to since I wasnt there at the time. And about you not planting breadcrumbs as mafia, thats a null-read from my PoV. If someone I trust as town can confirm it, I'll take it into account. 7: Agreed its confirmation bias. Not one of my better points. Just another one of those "this does fit a bit too well" moments. Maybe I shouldnt have mentioned 6 and 7, but as 1&2 neither of them are strong at all on their own, but together they make something, so I added them. And quite frankly I dont think you can defend yourself against 6 or 7 so you probably shouldnt bother. Blame my paranoia would make more sense (since if I'm all wrong in all of this, I will be the first to admit that my paranoia totally got me on the wrong track). 8: You totally didnt reply to my point at all. My point was about you painting yourself as average town player at a time when we should be asked why you arent dead (being vet and all). The timing of that was VERY telling and nothing you wrote relates to that at all. As for the Z-Boson situation (why is this on my point 8 lol?), you yourself said you're awesome as mafia. Would you really say you, supposing you are mafia, are unable to make the read Boson was bluffing and then call for the kill on him to clear you? As someone who claimed to be awesome as mafia, dont you agree you should be able to make that call? I have that faith in someone making such a claim at least. 9: Cant really reply to that one. I think its strange you tell where trackers should go when you're the tracker. You say you did it to not look blue. Thats possible. Up to everyone to decide whether they believe you or not I guess. Personally im very sceptical. | ||
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Kreb
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I'm going to answer the ones we disagree about. There's really no point in talking about 1,2,6,7,9 right? Agreed. 3,4 ) Yeah it was different because I wasn't anywhere near as comfortable picking the right lynch as I was the day before that. With that, I think we are at the end and where its up to the rest whether they believe it or not. Personally I think its very strange that someone goes from seeing non-town all over the place (you had Boson, Forumite, BM, S&B all pinned down as non-town) into being very uncomfotable about any reads at all. That is a VERY big switch of certainty. And I find it much more likely to be motivated by a scum wanting Forumite gone, planting the seed, then watchign the seed grow nad blossom. And then next lynch following it up the next day by being very content with who was being talked about and not wanting to get his hands dirty but rather preferring sitting back and let the others do the mislynch-job. Thats my version. Believe mine or his. 5) Pretty much my last sentence I just wrote . I explained it a little but those things are awfully hard to explain. Well then at least you can agree this one doesnt make you look very good, right? SS was simply the only guy who had votes besides Gravan if you exclude MMToss and Mav. I also think I mentioned Shady quite some time over the last couple of days as possible mafia and never retracted that at all. Its not impossible I could have missed it. But as you claimed you had him on your target since previous, you should really show that. As it stands now, you still havent presented much of a reason as to why you considered SS as good of a target as you thought Gravan was. Also consider the follow-up question should you have such a reason: why werent SS on your 1st and (more importantly) 2nd list in that case if you had him on your mind all along? 8) You're kind of asking me "why did mafia not shoot you". How am I supposed to know that. I mentioned the Z-Boson situation because that's an easy explanation for one of the nights. The first night I obviously didn't get shot because they prioritised BC and BM24. Ever after that we had an awful lot of talk about a medic because everyone assumed there was one for sure, so as mentioned they probably tried to get safe kills rather than vet kills when they were already low on numbers after losing 2 mafias d1/n1. But again, I have no clue. How am I supposed to know why mafia did or did not shoot me. It's just a guess and I can't answer that question. Im not entirely sure what you're saying, but I cant find anything related to the fact that you painted yourself as average town at that time, so I'll leave it at that. | ||
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I totally didnt see that coming | ||
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Also theres no secret (for those who read the threat at least) that I've put SS on the more towny side before, and he has also expressed town read on me and he tried to get BM off my back when he posted his "case" on me. So should SS get lynched and flip red I should probably get tracked the coming night so you can confirm Im not mafia. But thats for later really. I'll make sure to post that again should we lynch SS and he flips red. For now though: ##vote: Shady Sands | ||
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