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I would agree with Hapa that Mattchew is almost a 100% scum read. He's done a good job of highlighting why.
But there is more than one scum. We need to move past Mattchew onto pressuring other people. A scum lynch day one puts us in an excellent position going forward. Looking at others' filters I couldn't help but notice that there still are a considerable number of people that need to participate more to help ensure a strong pro-town environment going into day 2.
Grush is at modkill-threshold. I don't expect he's going to be around all that much longer. Until he makes his first post, I consider any time spent pressuring him as a waste.
On the other hand, Gravan, Lvdr, austinmc, maverick, ShadySands, and ShioPi all stand out to me as semi-lurkers. Some of them seem to have legitimate reasons (such as ShadySands), but that doesn't mean they aren't scum with legitimate reasons.
As for things that have stood out to me:
-Obviously, Ottoxlol made a rather out of place vote after it was apparent Mattchew was lying. I don't feel this is a scum tell, as from a scum perspective Mattchew is pretty much "confirmed scum" at this point. Scum would be dumb to not bus him. It doesn't guarantee he's innocent, but it feels like his vote is too out of place to have been made by scum.
-BlackMamba's early vote against Cobbler still stands out to me. Cobbler started the initiative to get Mattchew lynched, convincing me that he's "confirmed town." I just don't see any scenario where Cobbler as scum aggressively buses his partner day one.
Yet BlackMamba voted him with little reason, then turned around and tacked on more of an explanation a little later. BlackMamba's play here makes sense from a scum perspective, as he could have been trying to avert attention away from Mattchew. Also, he isn't transparent with his reads. As town, I see no reason why he'd withhold them, as he does here:
On September 04 2012 12:05 BlackMamba24 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 12:00 goodkarma wrote:@BlackMamba:On September 04 2012 11:30 BlackMamba24 wrote:On September 04 2012 11:03 goodkarma wrote:Hey all  A couple general observations for what I've just read: -I don't follow some of the voting that's already taken place in this thread. I don't get why some of us feel the need to vote for each other this early with little to no information to back a vote up. Imho, we should be working to establish a strong, pro-town atmosphere just as much as we are to find a lynch candidate for today. -I remember Hapa saying this once before: lynching one of the most vocal members day one is typically not the best idea. Looking back at how NMM XXIV turned out (Shady's lynch), others here should agree with me that there's at least some evidence to support this. Town loses so much more from a mislynch of a vocal town than of a semi-lurker, and, at least in my experience, you're much more likely to lynch a town than a scum when you target the most vocal day one player. I'm not going to assume that sloosh is town at this point, but the effort he's taken to pressure others with his posts is definitely conducive towards a pro-town atmosphere. Along those lines, I feel that Z-Boson's early vote on sloosh could very well be scum motivated. I disagree that sloosh's discussion is unhelpful. Maybe scum or town could pressure people like sloosh has, but he's pushing for more information so he's not stuck making a weak case against others, as Z-Boson has with sloosh: ##FoS: Z-Boson Can you explain why it's scum motivated? Why does scum want sloosh out of the game when all he's doing is arguing with Toadesstern and asking dumb questions First, I'd like to specify that asking questions that get others to discuss their reads on other players, or to defend themselves for something suspicious said in their posts, is not "dumb." I in fact find it suspicious from a townie perspective to call many of the lines of questioning recently presented in this thread as "dumb," since so far most of it has produced productive discussion. From a scum perspective, though, a statement like this does make sense. Scum has the knowledge of who is and isn't scum, so to them watching people they know to be town attacking each other could look pretty "dumb." Second, at the time I posted that sloosh was one of the most outspoken people in the game. From a scum perspective, it would make sense to remove an outspoken person day one. Especially if said person was furthering discussion by poking and prodding others with a lot of questions. While we're at it, I'd like to ask about this: On September 04 2012 11:34 BlackMamba24 wrote:
Anyway - ##vote BloodyC0bbler. Nosy Neigbor specifies that you will not know who you visited, not "you will not know that you are the nosy neighbor" which implies that they would at least know they are the nosy neighbor.
Nosy Neighbor makes a lot of sense as a scum fakeclaim it's probably what I would claim if I had to and thinking about SNB from Death Note mafia I have no reason to implicitly trust mattchew but the fact that you're throwing suspicion on him this early and this stupidly is completely consistent with your scum meta so bye What's with the vote for BloodyCobbler? He's pretty much a lurker at this point, but you're voting him for non-policy reasons... This feels like a scum getting behind a safe lurker lynch vote, at least at the time you wrote it (it just came to my attention as I'm about to post this that another page of postings have taken place, and cobbler has just made another post...)... My guess is this is a pressure vote, but I would appreciate a bit more of an explanation if you could provide it. because BC is full of shit and also making up stuff mattchew never said i'll never policy vote, i hate even reading the words next to each other i respectfully disagree about sloosh and how productive he has been but i'm not going to argue about it. i won't say anything about my read on him or toadesstern right now. hope that satisfies you
I don't understand why it is that he can't share reads on sloosh and toadstern if he has them. Refusing to be transparent does not help town.
##FoS: BlackMamba
I look forward to hearing BlackMamba's reply, especially regarding his reads on sloosh and toadstern that he refused to share.
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Honestly though I don't think Ottoxlols defence on Matt is that alignment indicating.
We've got like 1915851861 people voting Matt. You think a mafia would get in here and hard-defend him the way he did?
It's a tricky argument because clearly mafia could do that just because of what I just said and clearly if it was someone like WBG or BC (well or myself but I'm town :p ) I'd consider it a possiblity or even likely. But other than those 2 (3) people I'd highly doubt anyone would have the balls to do that as a mafia. Maybe DrH (hasn't played in a while so don't know) or BM because he doesn't care lol.
I could see Ottox being some gonzaw-like-paranoid townie, which is unlikely but possible just the same way I could see him being a mafia defending a buddy like that.
So long story short: Both explantions seem unlikely but that's due to the fact that it makes little sense no matter of alignment from my point of view. I wouldn't say Ottox being mafia is the conclusion we should favor based on the fact that he's defending Matt.
Not to mention that Matt hasn't flipped yet. Let's talk about what Matts flip means once we see him flip, shall we?
If you want to talk about how someone is weird because of how they posted fine but talking about how someone's alignment because of a not yet seen flip is retarded.
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@ BM24
Does Ottoxlol's defense of Mattchew make him likely-mafia? While I consider his arguments insane (at best), I'd imagine that mafia are in full-bus mode on Mattchew no? I just don't see the mafia motive in going against the entire town to defend a guy who's basically confirmed scum.
Regarding MiltonKram - I think the key difference between his case and your case in DN Mini (tunneling you for that long was a horrible play on my part) is the presence of misleading evidence. In the DN Mini, your case wasn't good (D1 Caveats of course) but it wasn't misleading. MiltonKram not only tried to point out a third party, but used false evidence. I think there's a high chance he's mafia.
Now he could be a townie who made a bad play, but I find it unlikely given the content and timing of his suspicions. I also find it amusing that every time someone calls him out, he seems to fly into the thread, but is hush-hush otherwise.
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On September 05 2012 09:17 Ottoxlol wrote:
I just don't get it. Why is it simpler to fuck up as scum? Tell me "kid".
I went into the whole hypotethical thing because I was discussing why would a nonscum Matt fake-claim. So why would a scum Matt fake-claim? if this was a selfaware miller game, a tracker could very well track him n1 then if he's scum it would be revealed.
This isn't a self aware miller game. So you went into the whole hypothetical thing in order to search for a reason to not lynch matt?
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@ GoodKarma
Are we reading the same game? Why are you agreeing with me on Mattchew? I wasn't the one who made the case.
Also, Grush is nowhere near a modkill - he has several posts and a vote already.
In that list of lurkers, how is Lvdr "semi-lurking" - he doesn't even have a post!
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On September 05 2012 09:23 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 09:17 Ottoxlol wrote:
I just don't get it. Why is it simpler to fuck up as scum? Tell me "kid".
I went into the whole hypotethical thing because I was discussing why would a nonscum Matt fake-claim. So why would a scum Matt fake-claim? if this was a selfaware miller game, a tracker could very well track him n1 then if he's scum it would be revealed. Think of it this way. It was a question never answered by Palmar in thread. Now, most people (even if self aware miller) tend to not claim as even if they do claim people tend to not take them seriously unless a group of them does it. Now, when one person claims, you can gauge the towns reaction and then to prove that millers are self aware the scum team slowly "claims". Basically you can have an entire team or 2-3 people out themselves in this manner and be given a full get out of lynch free card should the people they visit die for a night or two. This may not seem to be much but it means later on in the game people start arguing about if the claims are legit, are only some of them legit, etc.... It makes no sense for town to fakeclaim but in an setup that was so ambiguous it would be a brilliant move if you could pull it off. My only frustration is I could have potentially snagged more than just him had I waited longer before calling him out.
why would they get out of any lynch if someone they visited died?
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On September 05 2012 09:28 Hapahauli wrote:
@ BM24
Does Ottoxlol's defense of Mattchew make him likely-mafia? While I consider his arguments insane (at best), I'd imagine that mafia are in full-bus mode on Mattchew no? I just don't see the mafia motive in going against the entire town to defend a guy who's basically confirmed scum.
Regarding MiltonKram - I think the key difference between his case and your case in DN Mini (tunneling you for that long was a horrible play on my part) is the presence of misleading evidence. In the DN Mini, your case wasn't good (D1 Caveats of course) but it wasn't misleading. MiltonKram not only tried to point out a third party, but used false evidence. I think there's a high chance he's mafia.
Now he could be a townie who made a bad play, but I find it unlikely given the content and timing of his suspicions. I also find it amusing that every time someone calls him out, he seems to fly into the thread, but is hush-hush otherwise.
You'd be surprised. I've told scumteams to bus me before and then some dude just defends me out of nowhere. It could be bad town but the arguments are too bad to just ignore based on an argument like that.
anyway @ottox
Scum motivations for claiming miller/nosy neighbor - excuse for tracker checks. See: strongandbig in Death Note Mafia. It's simple. Also, like someone else said, scum have a survival instinct that other town players don't have.
You're free to think whatever you like but combine that with the fact that he isn't here defending himself and never even defended himself from his initial accusation, what's town about what he's doing? If he really is a tracker, he should be going nuts trying to save himself. Scum give up because they don't want to give the town more information to go off of later.
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On September 05 2012 09:32 Ottoxlol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 09:23 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On September 05 2012 09:17 Ottoxlol wrote:
I just don't get it. Why is it simpler to fuck up as scum? Tell me "kid".
I went into the whole hypotethical thing because I was discussing why would a nonscum Matt fake-claim. So why would a scum Matt fake-claim? if this was a selfaware miller game, a tracker could very well track him n1 then if he's scum it would be revealed. Think of it this way. It was a question never answered by Palmar in thread. Now, most people (even if self aware miller) tend to not claim as even if they do claim people tend to not take them seriously unless a group of them does it. Now, when one person claims, you can gauge the towns reaction and then to prove that millers are self aware the scum team slowly "claims". Basically you can have an entire team or 2-3 people out themselves in this manner and be given a full get out of lynch free card should the people they visit die for a night or two. This may not seem to be much but it means later on in the game people start arguing about if the claims are legit, are only some of them legit, etc.... It makes no sense for town to fakeclaim but in an setup that was so ambiguous it would be a brilliant move if you could pull it off. My only frustration is I could have potentially snagged more than just him had I waited longer before calling him out. why would they get out of any lynch if someone they visited died?
because if people believe the claim they can say "i'm nosy neighbor so it was just a random visit"
it's preemptive defense
read: strongandbig in death note mafia. scum that claimed self-aware miller (a role that didn't exist) essentially in the same fashion that Mattchew did.
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On September 05 2012 09:27 goodkarma wrote:I would agree with Hapa that Mattchew is almost a 100% scum read. He's done a good job of highlighting why. But there is more than one scum. We need to move past Mattchew onto pressuring other people. A scum lynch day one puts us in an excellent position going forward. Looking at others' filters I couldn't help but notice that there still are a considerable number of people that need to participate more to help ensure a strong pro-town environment going into day 2. Grush is at modkill-threshold. I don't expect he's going to be around all that much longer. Until he makes his first post, I consider any time spent pressuring him as a waste. On the other hand, Gravan, Lvdr, austinmc, maverick, ShadySands, and ShioPi all stand out to me as semi-lurkers. Some of them seem to have legitimate reasons (such as ShadySands), but that doesn't mean they aren't scum with legitimate reasons. As for things that have stood out to me: -Obviously, Ottoxlol made a rather out of place vote after it was apparent Mattchew was lying. I don't feel this is a scum tell, as from a scum perspective Mattchew is pretty much "confirmed scum" at this point. Scum would be dumb to not bus him. It doesn't guarantee he's innocent, but it feels like his vote is too out of place to have been made by scum. -BlackMamba's early vote against Cobbler still stands out to me. Cobbler started the initiative to get Mattchew lynched, convincing me that he's "confirmed town." I just don't see any scenario where Cobbler as scum aggressively buses his partner day one. Yet BlackMamba voted him with little reason, then turned around and tacked on more of an explanation a little later. BlackMamba's play here makes sense from a scum perspective, as he could have been trying to avert attention away from Mattchew. Also, he isn't transparent with his reads. As town, I see no reason why he'd withhold them, as he does here: Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 12:05 BlackMamba24 wrote:On September 04 2012 12:00 goodkarma wrote:@BlackMamba:On September 04 2012 11:30 BlackMamba24 wrote:On September 04 2012 11:03 goodkarma wrote:Hey all A couple general observations for what I've just read: -I don't follow some of the voting that's already taken place in this thread. I don't get why some of us feel the need to vote for each other this early with little to no information to back a vote up. Imho, we should be working to establish a strong, pro-town atmosphere just as much as we are to find a lynch candidate for today. -I remember Hapa saying this once before: lynching one of the most vocal members day one is typically not the best idea. Looking back at how NMM XXIV turned out (Shady's lynch), others here should agree with me that there's at least some evidence to support this. Town loses so much more from a mislynch of a vocal town than of a semi-lurker, and, at least in my experience, you're much more likely to lynch a town than a scum when you target the most vocal day one player. I'm not going to assume that sloosh is town at this point, but the effort he's taken to pressure others with his posts is definitely conducive towards a pro-town atmosphere. Along those lines, I feel that Z-Boson's early vote on sloosh could very well be scum motivated. I disagree that sloosh's discussion is unhelpful. Maybe scum or town could pressure people like sloosh has, but he's pushing for more information so he's not stuck making a weak case against others, as Z-Boson has with sloosh: ##FoS: Z-Boson Can you explain why it's scum motivated? Why does scum want sloosh out of the game when all he's doing is arguing with Toadesstern and asking dumb questions First, I'd like to specify that asking questions that get others to discuss their reads on other players, or to defend themselves for something suspicious said in their posts, is not "dumb." I in fact find it suspicious from a townie perspective to call many of the lines of questioning recently presented in this thread as "dumb," since so far most of it has produced productive discussion. From a scum perspective, though, a statement like this does make sense. Scum has the knowledge of who is and isn't scum, so to them watching people they know to be town attacking each other could look pretty "dumb." Second, at the time I posted that sloosh was one of the most outspoken people in the game. From a scum perspective, it would make sense to remove an outspoken person day one. Especially if said person was furthering discussion by poking and prodding others with a lot of questions. While we're at it, I'd like to ask about this: On September 04 2012 11:34 BlackMamba24 wrote:
Anyway - ##vote BloodyC0bbler. Nosy Neigbor specifies that you will not know who you visited, not "you will not know that you are the nosy neighbor" which implies that they would at least know they are the nosy neighbor.
Nosy Neighbor makes a lot of sense as a scum fakeclaim it's probably what I would claim if I had to and thinking about SNB from Death Note mafia I have no reason to implicitly trust mattchew but the fact that you're throwing suspicion on him this early and this stupidly is completely consistent with your scum meta so bye What's with the vote for BloodyCobbler? He's pretty much a lurker at this point, but you're voting him for non-policy reasons... This feels like a scum getting behind a safe lurker lynch vote, at least at the time you wrote it (it just came to my attention as I'm about to post this that another page of postings have taken place, and cobbler has just made another post...)... My guess is this is a pressure vote, but I would appreciate a bit more of an explanation if you could provide it. because BC is full of shit and also making up stuff mattchew never said i'll never policy vote, i hate even reading the words next to each other i respectfully disagree about sloosh and how productive he has been but i'm not going to argue about it. i won't say anything about my read on him or toadesstern right now. hope that satisfies you I don't understand why it is that he can't share reads on sloosh and toadstern if he has them. Refusing to be transparent does not help town. ##FoS: BlackMamba I look forward to hearing BlackMamba's reply, especially regarding his reads on sloosh and toadstern that he refused to share.
this is dumb, ask BC why
also no i'm not giving you my reads, reads are fucking stupid any other questions
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First, the straightforward part. It seems to me that Matt is most likely an assassin, or a very careless player.
As many have said before me, there is no case for him to do what he did from a town perspective. To me, it seems that if he were mafia or town, we would likely have seen at least some kind of attempt at an explanation - either to strengthen his fellow mafia by giving them 'towncred' as they jump on his bandwagon or to try to convince us we are making a mistake as a town blue. As an assassin, he could just be seeing his end and giving up - this is of course moot if he decides to put in his piece later.
Since he is apparently not a random newbie (who is a random newb, anyway  ?), and clearly likes to be an active player, it shouts assasinto me.
Since it is day 1 and we only have so much information, we essentially have to lynch him anyway (even if we were nearly certain he is an assassin. At this time, I'll be throwing my vote his way.
The post where I make my comments on the information currently present (as in, not to do with the matt bandwagon) is coming up later. I just wanted to put down somehing somewhat solid so thanI can start to develop a post hostory, watery as it might be.
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...okay BM24. You win. Mafia's actually defending Mattchew.
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On September 05 2012 09:29 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 09:17 Ottoxlol wrote:
I just don't get it. Why is it simpler to fuck up as scum? Tell me "kid".
I went into the whole hypotethical thing because I was discussing why would a nonscum Matt fake-claim. So why would a scum Matt fake-claim? if this was a selfaware miller game, a tracker could very well track him n1 then if he's scum it would be revealed. This isn't a self aware miller game. So you went into the whole hypothetical thing in order to search for a reason to not lynch matt?
But he thought it was.
Since no one made a case other than he's lying therefore scum. I tried reasoning his claim and I got to the conclusion that he could very well be a blue or assa. He's even more likely to be one because it was a bad play whatever his alignment is, but as scum he could have discussed it with his team so there is less room for making a mistake this big. I was baffled by the fact that no town had came to this and asked why is that. 19 or something people already voted for him, I can only see it as a very easy wagon. People jump on with zero discussion, zero contribution.
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On September 05 2012 09:27 goodkarma wrote:I would agree with Hapa that Mattchew is almost a 100% scum read. He's done a good job of highlighting why. But there is more than one scum. We need to move past Mattchew onto pressuring other people. A scum lynch day one puts us in an excellent position going forward. Looking at others' filters I couldn't help but notice that there still are a considerable number of people that need to participate more to help ensure a strong pro-town environment going into day 2. Grush is at modkill-threshold. I don't expect he's going to be around all that much longer. Until he makes his first post, I consider any time spent pressuring him as a waste. On the other hand, Gravan, Lvdr, austinmc, maverick, ShadySands, and ShioPi all stand out to me as semi-lurkers. Some of them seem to have legitimate reasons (such as ShadySands), but that doesn't mean they aren't scum with legitimate reasons. As for things that have stood out to me: -Obviously, Ottoxlol made a rather out of place vote after it was apparent Mattchew was lying. I don't feel this is a scum tell, as from a scum perspective Mattchew is pretty much "confirmed scum" at this point. Scum would be dumb to not bus him. It doesn't guarantee he's innocent, but it feels like his vote is too out of place to have been made by scum. -BlackMamba's early vote against Cobbler still stands out to me. Cobbler started the initiative to get Mattchew lynched, convincing me that he's "confirmed town." I just don't see any scenario where Cobbler as scum aggressively buses his partner day one. Yet BlackMamba voted him with little reason, then turned around and tacked on more of an explanation a little later. BlackMamba's play here makes sense from a scum perspective, as he could have been trying to avert attention away from Mattchew. Also, he isn't transparent with his reads. As town, I see no reason why he'd withhold them, as he does here: Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 12:05 BlackMamba24 wrote:On September 04 2012 12:00 goodkarma wrote:@BlackMamba:On September 04 2012 11:30 BlackMamba24 wrote:On September 04 2012 11:03 goodkarma wrote:Hey all A couple general observations for what I've just read: -I don't follow some of the voting that's already taken place in this thread. I don't get why some of us feel the need to vote for each other this early with little to no information to back a vote up. Imho, we should be working to establish a strong, pro-town atmosphere just as much as we are to find a lynch candidate for today. -I remember Hapa saying this once before: lynching one of the most vocal members day one is typically not the best idea. Looking back at how NMM XXIV turned out (Shady's lynch), others here should agree with me that there's at least some evidence to support this. Town loses so much more from a mislynch of a vocal town than of a semi-lurker, and, at least in my experience, you're much more likely to lynch a town than a scum when you target the most vocal day one player. I'm not going to assume that sloosh is town at this point, but the effort he's taken to pressure others with his posts is definitely conducive towards a pro-town atmosphere. Along those lines, I feel that Z-Boson's early vote on sloosh could very well be scum motivated. I disagree that sloosh's discussion is unhelpful. Maybe scum or town could pressure people like sloosh has, but he's pushing for more information so he's not stuck making a weak case against others, as Z-Boson has with sloosh: ##FoS: Z-Boson Can you explain why it's scum motivated? Why does scum want sloosh out of the game when all he's doing is arguing with Toadesstern and asking dumb questions First, I'd like to specify that asking questions that get others to discuss their reads on other players, or to defend themselves for something suspicious said in their posts, is not "dumb." I in fact find it suspicious from a townie perspective to call many of the lines of questioning recently presented in this thread as "dumb," since so far most of it has produced productive discussion. From a scum perspective, though, a statement like this does make sense. Scum has the knowledge of who is and isn't scum, so to them watching people they know to be town attacking each other could look pretty "dumb." Second, at the time I posted that sloosh was one of the most outspoken people in the game. From a scum perspective, it would make sense to remove an outspoken person day one. Especially if said person was furthering discussion by poking and prodding others with a lot of questions. While we're at it, I'd like to ask about this: On September 04 2012 11:34 BlackMamba24 wrote:
Anyway - ##vote BloodyC0bbler. Nosy Neigbor specifies that you will not know who you visited, not "you will not know that you are the nosy neighbor" which implies that they would at least know they are the nosy neighbor.
Nosy Neighbor makes a lot of sense as a scum fakeclaim it's probably what I would claim if I had to and thinking about SNB from Death Note mafia I have no reason to implicitly trust mattchew but the fact that you're throwing suspicion on him this early and this stupidly is completely consistent with your scum meta so bye What's with the vote for BloodyCobbler? He's pretty much a lurker at this point, but you're voting him for non-policy reasons... This feels like a scum getting behind a safe lurker lynch vote, at least at the time you wrote it (it just came to my attention as I'm about to post this that another page of postings have taken place, and cobbler has just made another post...)... My guess is this is a pressure vote, but I would appreciate a bit more of an explanation if you could provide it. because BC is full of shit and also making up stuff mattchew never said i'll never policy vote, i hate even reading the words next to each other i respectfully disagree about sloosh and how productive he has been but i'm not going to argue about it. i won't say anything about my read on him or toadesstern right now. hope that satisfies you I don't understand why it is that he can't share reads on sloosh and toadstern if he has them. Refusing to be transparent does not help town. ##FoS: BlackMamba I look forward to hearing BlackMamba's reply, especially regarding his reads on sloosh and toadstern that he refused to share.
BM24 (DrH) has perfectly sound reasoning for voting for me as he did. Burden of proof was on me, I couldn't provide it or i'd be rule violating and thus most likely modkilled or punished. Palmar coming into the thread with his announcement is the only reason I am not swinging from the gallows or that we aren't arguing like mad over setup issues. I also in the heat of the moment skimmed the rest of a post and misread it and basically bullshitted something not said. DrH was fully within his right to doubt my intentions given the situation, hell everyone would have been within their rights to.
I dislike extremely your coming to the "aid" of hapa. It imo was not clearly illustrated by him why mattchew must be scum. It was outed by me and explained by many people and giving sole credit to someone who is at this time under a strong amount of pressure is curious to me. You also prove you have not been closely reading the thread. Why? Because grush has in fact posted. Thus he is not likely to be modkilled. This is your main reason for poking at him but it is clearly wrong.
I also don't know why you have avoided talking about key points mentioned in thread or why you chose to give a semi lurker list while giving a pass to one of them. Why mention him if you think he has a valid reason for not posting?
I think you made a post that most likely took you alot of time but it comes off as very "crafted" and overall has a sense of offness to it.
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Hey DrH, are you the guy who was my (Jokers) Bodyguard in AC that ended up being "redchecked" by a fake-DT ?
Not sure if that was you or if I'm mistaking you for someone else. Just curious.
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On September 05 2012 09:38 Gravan wrote:First, the straightforward part. It seems to me that Matt is most likely an assassin, or a very careless player. As many have said before me, there is no case for him to do what he did from a town perspective. To me, it seems that if he were mafia or town, we would likely have seen at least some kind of attempt at an explanation - either to strengthen his fellow mafia by giving them 'towncred' as they jump on his bandwagon or to try to convince us we are making a mistake as a town blue. As an assassin, he could just be seeing his end and giving up - this is of course moot if he decides to put in his piece later. Since he is apparently not a random newbie (who is a random newb, anyway ?), and clearly likes to be an active player, it shouts assasinto me. Since it is day 1 and we only have so much information, we essentially have to lynch him anyway (even if we were nearly certain he is an assassin. At this time, I'll be throwing my vote his way. The post where I make my comments on the information currently present (as in, not to do with the matt bandwagon) is coming up later. I just wanted to put down somehing somewhat solid so thanI can start to develop a post hostory, watery as it might be.
Simple explanation is the best. What the fuck is with people searching for reasons for matt to not be mafia. If he were town he would have defended himself by now. He is mafia. He got caught and now is just afking to deny info. It is really obvious.
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On September 05 2012 09:32 Ottoxlol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 09:23 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On September 05 2012 09:17 Ottoxlol wrote:
I just don't get it. Why is it simpler to fuck up as scum? Tell me "kid".
I went into the whole hypotethical thing because I was discussing why would a nonscum Matt fake-claim. So why would a scum Matt fake-claim? if this was a selfaware miller game, a tracker could very well track him n1 then if he's scum it would be revealed. Think of it this way. It was a question never answered by Palmar in thread. Now, most people (even if self aware miller) tend to not claim as even if they do claim people tend to not take them seriously unless a group of them does it. Now, when one person claims, you can gauge the towns reaction and then to prove that millers are self aware the scum team slowly "claims". Basically you can have an entire team or 2-3 people out themselves in this manner and be given a full get out of lynch free card should the people they visit die for a night or two. This may not seem to be much but it means later on in the game people start arguing about if the claims are legit, are only some of them legit, etc.... It makes no sense for town to fakeclaim but in an setup that was so ambiguous it would be a brilliant move if you could pull it off. My only frustration is I could have potentially snagged more than just him had I waited longer before calling him out. why would they get out of any lynch if someone they visited died?
2-3 people claim nosy. Tracker or watcher sees one of them go to someone who dies. They claimed nosy, we accepted the claim as legit. It means an entire day will be spent clusterfucked around who did what or the like.
As they claim nosy, if its accepted near no tracker will check them so only a watcher will see them and if he sees 2 people visit someone who dies the non claimer will be the one killed. Even if you figure out that 1 person lied, you won't know if the others did as we have no idea on the setup numbers.
As such the likelyhood of town offing them is insanely lowered unless they get bad luck by being seen by a watcher where only they visit x player.
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On September 05 2012 09:40 Ottoxlol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 09:29 DarthPunk wrote:On September 05 2012 09:17 Ottoxlol wrote:
I just don't get it. Why is it simpler to fuck up as scum? Tell me "kid".
I went into the whole hypotethical thing because I was discussing why would a nonscum Matt fake-claim. So why would a scum Matt fake-claim? if this was a selfaware miller game, a tracker could very well track him n1 then if he's scum it would be revealed. This isn't a self aware miller game. So you went into the whole hypothetical thing in order to search for a reason to not lynch matt? But he thought it was. Since no one made a case other than he's lying therefore scum. I tried reasoning his claim and I got to the conclusion that he could very well be a blue or assa. He's even more likely to be one because it was a bad play whatever his alignment is, but as scum he could have discussed it with his team so there is less room for making a mistake this big. I was baffled by the fact that no town had came to this and asked why is that. 19 or something people already voted for him, I can only see it as a very easy wagon. People jump on with zero discussion, zero contribution.
You realize that what you're saying in this post basicly comes down to
"Mafia have teammates, therefore Mafias don't make mistakes".
That's simply wrong.
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On September 05 2012 09:40 Ottoxlol wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 09:29 DarthPunk wrote:On September 05 2012 09:17 Ottoxlol wrote:
I just don't get it. Why is it simpler to fuck up as scum? Tell me "kid".
I went into the whole hypotethical thing because I was discussing why would a nonscum Matt fake-claim. So why would a scum Matt fake-claim? if this was a selfaware miller game, a tracker could very well track him n1 then if he's scum it would be revealed. This isn't a self aware miller game. So you went into the whole hypothetical thing in order to search for a reason to not lynch matt? But he thought it was. Since no one made a case other than he's lying therefore scum. I tried reasoning his claim and I got to the conclusion that he could very well be a blue or assa. He's even more likely to be one because it was a bad play whatever his alignment is, but as scum he could have discussed it with his team so there is less room for making a mistake this big. I was baffled by the fact that no town had came to this and asked why is that. 19 or something people already voted for him, I can only see it as a very easy wagon. People jump on with zero discussion, zero contribution.
The reason that people are Voting for matt is that it was very clear in the build up to Palmar's announcement that if matt was lying he was most probably scum. If he was a blue, why has he not even bothered to defend himself? Have you not read the dozen or so posts that have explained this to you.
Let me put it this way. Is it more likely your reasoning is wrong or that the entire towns reasoning is wrong?
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ottoxlol is wrong about no one making a case beyond the lie. In fact, I find his behavior more incriminating than his lie.
Here:
1) never outright accuses BC of lying and doesn't OMGUS at all, takes passive role in defending himself. result of implicit guilt?
2) hints at the fact that he might be blue without outright claiming. if he has reason to suspect BC is right he knows he's getting lynched and needs to claim right away. scum, unlike someone who is actually blue, need a considerable amount of time to think about a second claim and plan with the mafia, his posts during the time i was arguing with BC read to me like he was stalling while trying to think of something
3) by saying that BC must have PM'd Palmar he's basically admitting that BC is right that he was lying but yet does not actually defend himself for it which seems tbh really strange to me from both a town and scum motivation. he says "devils advocate" when he comes up with a town motivated scenario for lying as though he's trying to just tell BC what he is doing so he will drop it
Thinking back on it, he had made excuses/hinted at town-aligned scenarios for his lie before Palmar confirmed he was lying. Defense before-the-fact is almost always a sign of scum.
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On September 05 2012 09:43 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 09:32 Ottoxlol wrote:On September 05 2012 09:23 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On September 05 2012 09:17 Ottoxlol wrote:
I just don't get it. Why is it simpler to fuck up as scum? Tell me "kid".
I went into the whole hypotethical thing because I was discussing why would a nonscum Matt fake-claim. So why would a scum Matt fake-claim? if this was a selfaware miller game, a tracker could very well track him n1 then if he's scum it would be revealed. Think of it this way. It was a question never answered by Palmar in thread. Now, most people (even if self aware miller) tend to not claim as even if they do claim people tend to not take them seriously unless a group of them does it. Now, when one person claims, you can gauge the towns reaction and then to prove that millers are self aware the scum team slowly "claims". Basically you can have an entire team or 2-3 people out themselves in this manner and be given a full get out of lynch free card should the people they visit die for a night or two. This may not seem to be much but it means later on in the game people start arguing about if the claims are legit, are only some of them legit, etc.... It makes no sense for town to fakeclaim but in an setup that was so ambiguous it would be a brilliant move if you could pull it off. My only frustration is I could have potentially snagged more than just him had I waited longer before calling him out. why would they get out of any lynch if someone they visited died? 2-3 people claim nosy. Tracker or watcher sees one of them go to someone who dies. They claimed nosy, we accepted the claim as legit. It means an entire day will be spent clusterfucked around who did what or the like. As they claim nosy, if its accepted near no tracker will check them so only a watcher will see them and if he sees 2 people visit someone who dies the non claimer will be the one killed. Even if you figure out that 1 person lied, you won't know if the others did as we have no idea on the setup numbers. As such the likelyhood of town offing them is insanely lowered unless they get bad luck by being seen by a watcher where only they visit x player.
Watcher see 2 ppl over a dead body, one of them claimed noisy. lynch the other, if he flips not red vig/rb the fake noisy
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EPT
