my last newbie game. thanks please give me VT.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXIV
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YourHarry
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my last newbie game. thanks please give me VT. | ||
YourHarry
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YourHarry
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##Vote mkfuba | ||
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YourHarry
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My first game, Mafia XX, where I was vanilla town My second game XXI. Again, vanilla townie. My third game. First half of the game, I am mafia goon. The game restarted and I drew vanilla townie. To summarize my meta, in the first 2.5 games, I am quick to make accusations and switch my vote players with little explanation. I decided to change my meta in game 3 where I drew vanilla townie. I played more conservative to avoid suspicion. I am not sure which meta I will choose this game ![]() | ||
YourHarry
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Having said this, lynch all lurkers has been fruitful in XXIII and could have worked in XXI as well. So, overall, I think it is not a bad strategy to follow. | ||
YourHarry
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@Shady Sands. You are accusing Solarsail of being hostile? You think scums are more likely to respond with hostility? Thrawn on the other hand is busy posting fluffs and WIFOM statement like "It could be that you, as mafia, know he is town and are taking advantage of solar's emotional reactions by drawing them out even further and immediately sidetracking everyone onto solar's case." ##Vote Thrawn | ||
YourHarry
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##Unvote ##Vote Solarsail "Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out." | ||
YourHarry
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##Unvote | ||
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FOS Following people still have not posted: Golbat Jhuyt Z-BosoN Ochrow | ||
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On August 15 2012 12:33 mkfuba07 wrote: The problem with the second part of this post is that it's not Shady who is sidetracking the conversation. He asked a question and Solarsail is perpetuating the suspicion by not addressing it. Shady started it, Solar is keeping it going. Multiple people have told him to post better and he's ignored us/thrown our advice back in our faces with a snarky comment. No matter what, this isn't pro-town behaviour. My view on Shady's first accusation (that Solar was obliquely accusing Stutters) is that Shady was overthinking it. I didn't even get a hint of supposition that Solar was accusing Stutters. What makes Solar seem at all suspicious to me has been his reactions the whole time. Nothing scummy yet, but a stubborn refusal to actually participate in pro-town behaviour. | ||
YourHarry
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What do you think about mkfuba. He in one hand defends Solar against your case, but non-committingly adds that Solar is not acting against pro-town behavior. Scum mkfuba motivated to push Solar mislynch, expecting subsequent emotional and "snarky" behavior from Solar. | ||
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But let's forget everything I said about Solar. I will re-evaluate when more people post. | ||
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YourHarry
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I thought GK and Solarsail were mason buddies. The reason for my thinking this is: On August 15 2012 12:17 goodkarma wrote: @Solarsail: Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people. The last thing I want is for us to waste an entire day getting a bad townie lynched. And obligatory game filters: Vanilla townie: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315&user=81106 Godfather: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&user=81106 GK's post struck me as strange because it made it sound like he knew Solar's alignment. He even starts the post with a "Sigh..." as if the town has been going in the wrong direction. My first suspicion was that they are scums together, but I don't think scums support each other this obviously and directly. GK using such wordings would strongly incriminate him if Solar ever flips scum. Thus, I thought this possibility is not likely. My second reaction was that they may have a history together. I thought Solar reacted similar way in previous games in which GK was in, which ended in some sort of fail. I checked GK's game filter and he had no history of Solar. And Solar admittedly played only one game prior to this in a different forum. Thus assuming they are mason buddies, I re-read Solar's posts. It made sense that he made confident, dauntless posts calling people out as if he knew someone could vouch for his being town. It even made sense that as mason, he may posit how it could have been scary to draw scum, something of the opposite. On August 15 2012 09:32 Solarsail wrote: Reading the many guides linked on the library which are incredbly helpful, the most important thing I saw is that the town needs to stay active and stay on point. If we are to lynch anyone it has to be because of real information and evidence, and that has to be readily available from the thread. If we're trying to learn we need a long record to practise analysing. Imagine how scared of posting you would be if you'd signed up for your first game and rolled Mafia. Your posts would be short, infrequent, and not hold any information that disagrees with the general direction so as not to stand out. Also, I began to be more confident about this read after GK stopped responding to my explanation on why I thought Solar was town: On August 15 2012 12:55 YourHarry wrote: GK, your post regarding Solar was the reason why I found him town. Is that enough explanation for you? I thought GK understood what I was implying here. And since he stopped questioning me, I thought my read that they are masons together was correct. I guess I was wrong. ![]() | ||
YourHarry
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On August 15 2012 18:49 Shady Sands wrote: Mkfuba posted something that was perfectly townish which YH tried to twist into scummy play. Again, I was indeed guilty of this. But this was a result of my strong suspicion that Solar was town. I did realize I was taking things out of context when Mkfuba pointed this out. You accuse me of posting one liners. I often post one liners and not much information is available in the beginning of the day, so few sentences would suffice in explaining reads. One liners can have content. And agreeing with you so readily is not a scummy behavior. Me if anything as scum may even be reluctant to agree with people readily, unless they have a strong case, in fear that people may point things out. @Goodkarma. You did not find Solar scummy based on previous cases at all? What makes you so confident about town going in the wrong direction in accusing Solar. It is almost as if you know his alignment? | ||
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Mkfuba: First, there is a difference in cautiously wondering if Solar is a newbie townie, which is what you did, and knowing that Solar is a suspiciously playing town. This is what GK wrote: Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. You guys propose the same thing in that Solar is not a good lynch. But the underlying basis for GK's proposal is based on what he somehow knows as a certainty. There is a subtle but important difference here. And this is why I think GK is scum, now that I realize that they are not mason brothers. Second, I do think the evidence was quiet sufficient. I am actually surprised that no one saw the same thing I did. In addition to GK's cooperative acceptance of Solar as just an over-agreessive townie , Solar's bold posting style fit almost perfectly once I started believing that he was a mason. Finally when GK no longer questioned me, I became more confident of my read. Also, what information do scums have that townies don't have that would allow scums to speculate better on mason alignments? There is one thing: since scums know everyone who is not scums, they may have easier time identifying the mason claims. But from my perspective, as long as I deemed the possibility of GK/Solar being scums together to be unlikely, my ability to speculate on mason alignment is as good as scums'. You may feel like I am playing with more information because I was quick to believe GK/Solar mason, but logically information available to scums does not allow them to better read masons as long as townies can also establish that GK/Solar are not scums together. I explained my reason for thinking that GK/Solar are not scums together, though I am having second thoughts about this. Thus, my identifying GK/Solar mason combination, even if it was based on less than convincing evidence does not lend much support to me being scum. | ||
YourHarry
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Just because I didn't write in paragraphs or in formal style, does not mean I am not taking this game seriously. I am taking forced breaks at work to make these posts. In the beginning I wrote one liners because that's exactly what I needed to convey what I wanted to say. Now, I am writing in paragraphs because that's what it takes me to explain my suspicious actions regarding sudden switch of stance on Solar. And also, if you had thought that Solar/GK were masons, would you have acted in a different way than I did? If so, what would you have done? Also, let's suppose I am scum. Do you think Solar is likely to be my scum partner? @GK you still have not answered my question. What did you think about Shady's case on Solar? Did it occur to you that Solar could have been scum? | ||
YourHarry
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On August 16 2012 10:47 DarthPunk wrote: You read way too much into a single post by GoodKarma and used that to base an entire read off? Whilst this seems plausible it is not enough to sell me on your Innocence. The swiftness in which you flip from voting for someone to believing him to be masoned is near unbelievable, unless you know that they were green. The swiftness of my flip is explained by revelation that GK and Solar were mason buddies, though. If I am scum and knew that they were green, you could accept my sudden change in my point of view regarding Solar's alignment. Would scum Harry decide to compromise what seems to be a semi-promising mislynch in Solar (assuming Solar is not Harry's scum partner) to risk being suspected, by trying to protect who scum Harry thought was a mason? Then continue to sacrifice being suspicious by not revealing his initial read even despite continuous pressure, until it became obvious that Harry was wrong about his mason reads? Or is this more likely the course of action from a town Harry? What would be the explanation for this? The only explanation that I can see is that scum Harry somehow wanted to establish his pro-town behavior by pretending to be a town who does not want to reveal identities of mason. Though, I still do not think that I would have been awry of so suddenly changing my point of view, as it would surely incite much suspicion. On August 16 2012 10:47 DarthPunk wrote: You deemed someone which you had just proclaimed as scum and voted for to be green? and this allowed you to Identify the scum pair? You see, This is a major hole in your logic and perhaps the first slip of the game. I guess you mean, mason pair. I admit that I was simply basing my read on GK's post. If you read GK's post though, don't you think you can share my point of view? I am posting GK's post again, because I really think deduction of GK/Solar mason buddies not too unreasonable: On August 15 2012 12:17 goodkarma wrote: @Solarsail: Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people. I definitely found it strange how GK had not a single inkling of suspicion against Solar, who I for sure found very scummy. Again, it is possible that they are scum together. But I posted earlier my explanation of initially dismissing this possibility: YourHarry wrote: GK's post struck me as strange because it made it sound like he knew Solar's alignment. He even starts the post with a "Sigh..." as if the town has been going in the wrong direction. My first suspicion was that they are scums together, but I don't think scums support each other this obviously and directly. GK using such wordings would strongly incriminate him if Solar ever flips scum. Thus, I thought this possibility is not likely. DarthPunk wrote You publicly stated that the reason you unvoted solar was that you believe he was masoned. Now you are saying that you could identify the mason pair as easily as scum because you ruled out the possibility of them both being scum. This is a fallacy. It seems very likely that you knew the alignments of both GK and Solar and that was the reason that you made the mason connection. Could you explain this fallacy. I wanted to argue that even if I was scum, my ability to identify mason would not be better than towns', as long as towns' also agreed that GK and Solar are not scums together. Here is my post explaining this: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489¤tpage=13#244 And this is the reason why I suspect GK to be the scum, because unless GK and Solar are mason together, he somehow knew the town alignment of Solar. The same same argument that you are making now, on why I am scum for knowing GK/Solar's alignment can be made about GK, for knowing Solar's alignment. Except, hopefully my explanation makes sense that my reasoning for knowing is based on thinking that GK/Solar was mason. GK, on the other hand, does not have explanation for this. As far as I am concerned, GK actually back-tracked his initial knowledge of Solar being scum. I will post about this soon. | ||
YourHarry
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First, the post I want everyone to re-read is the one that got me in trouble. I honestly don't know what GK is thinking here unless they were mason buddies: On August 15 2012 12:17 goodkarma wrote: @Solarsail: Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people. The last thing I want is for us to waste an entire day getting a bad townie lynched. I mean, he sighs! You may laugh and say this is trivial, but to me this is an indication of certainty that everyone else who has been suspecting Solar is wrong and he somehow has this knowledge and disapproves. Then he asks me why I find Solar townie. And exactly 3 minutes later, when I explain to him why I thought Solar was a mason, in this encryptive post that I thought he would understand if he was a mason: On August 15 2012 12:55 YourHarry wrote: GK, your post regarding Solar was the reason why I found him town. Is that enough explanation for you? And since he is not a mason, he should have questioned me regarding what I could possibly mean. It should have been very confusing! WTF am I talking about. Instead, he disappear. Still, I guess it is possible that he logged off in that 3 minute period. He does not seem to post frequently, afterall. To me, the above is the most convincing evidence that GK is scum. But his rest of the play are also scummy: Again, even if he disappeared previously before he saw my initial response to him. Thinking that GK was a mason, I made more direct references to him, including the quote below, hoping that he would discretely support my point of view. But now, knowing that GK is not a mason, town GK should have had strong scum read on me. Yet, he does not comment or respond to any of my posts that directly calls out his name. Shady, unless GK or someone starts accusing me I standby my decision. And his next post is basically bunch of fluffs. The part I think are almost pure fluffs are bolded: On August 15 2012 19:16 goodkarma wrote: Expect a meaningful case writeup on who I suspect to be likely scum sometime tomorrow. A couple quick comments before bed though... Regarding the suspicions going at Shady: Yes, he may have maintained a high degree of activity with few case points presented by himself, but to his credit he has gotten town talking and meaningful discussion rolling. I'm content to see him "prod" people, as someone needs to do this. And his case on YourHarry is definitely a good start in the right direction. Let's keep in mind there's three scum, not just one. So let's each try to give multiple scum reads where possible instead of tunneling one person at a time. Especially since if everyone tunnels the same guy today, and doesn't discuss other suspects in any detail, we pretty much go into day one all over again (if we mislynch) come day 2. I would have liked, for example, to hear a little more about Shady's "scum reads" on some of the people he's prodded prior and taken a break from, especially Solarsail. And regarding reading our filters from prior games: This is a newbie game, meaning filters are very sparse. A two-game "meta read" is hardly anything to go off of, as you can't honestly expect people to make exactly the same mistakes in their play over and over again. Everyone's gameplay will definitely change in the first few games. It's near-impossible to get a real "play pattern" off like two games, and I don't feel a "meta-read" is really going to be that valuable... If anything, it will make people over-suspicious of people who have a strong scum history, and overly-trusting of those with a strong town history. Then his next post is again, a bunch weak wishy-washy reads on some players. It is basically a narration on what had happened previously, regarding Solarsail (which incidentally, now he thinks Solarsail could be a scum) but he does explain why he doesn't think Solarsai is scum, because it would be "high risk high reward" scum style... On August 16 2012 06:41 goodkarma wrote: Solarsail's most recent postings definitely are a change of stance from his "troll" behavior he exhibited earlier and deserves a little time to comment on. I am very glad to see Solarsail renounce his trolling ways. Personally, I don't feel it was a very strong way to start the game. There will be suspicion cast on him the rest of the game for this day one play. However, I agree with his point that scum would have little motivation to go away from "trolling." His early gameplay was pretty disruptive, to the point of derailing all conversation onto him. Had he continued with "trolling," there's no doubt in my mind that he could have been that guy town would be 100% unsure of the rest of the game with no hope of a better read. Going away from this "troll" playstyle gives us more insight into Solarsail's motivation behind his posts, which is not a good idea from a scum perspective. As scum, he could have hidden behind his troll behavior until getting lynched. If he did a good job of it, he would be so disruptive there would be no meaningful conversation about other scum reads. Further, when the time came to lynch him there would be such consensus that no meaningful leads would come from his lynching. As I've just mentioned, there is a legitimate scum reason for his early postings. But as I've already discussed, I feel his aggressive early stance was most likely town-motivated. This is because in a newbie game, I would not expect such a scum play, but rather for scum to play more "safely." Further, the scum playstyle I've described would be a bit high risk, high reward. The longer a "troll scum" could stay alive, the more derailed the town would be and the better off the scum team would be. However, drawing attention to one's self like Solarsail did so early in the game would definitely put scum in a situation where they might have to bus Solarsail day one, and I can't think of many situations where a voluntary day one scum bus is ever really a good idea. Therefore, even though I could see a "troll scum" motivation, Solarsail's early play felt too aggressive even for that. TL;DR: Solarsail, like anyone else here, could be scum, but my impression of his early play was that he was more likely an aggressive townie. I feel there is more of a plausible town motivation than a scum motivation for him to now change his playstyle to be more constructive. In summary, non-mason but town GK should have been highly suspicious of me for continuing to making references to GK. He should have at least responded to my posts, wondering about what is going on. I can't say why I know scum GK would do this, however, except to reference XXIII where he was scum and was basically lurking. He is definitely posting more now, probably because he knows that policy lynch could hurt him, but I think overall, he is more hesitant to engage in direct conversations as scum. And I see the tendency of such reluctance to share his "reads" in many of his fluffy, wishy-washy posts. But more importantly, I think his prior knowledge of Solar's town alignment (even when Solar was acting suspicious and others were accusing him) makes him the best lynch candidate today. | ||
YourHarry
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FOS Golbat Jyhut Stutters and Archrun for lurking. Please do share your current reads. In particular, I would like your comments on what you think of my case against GK. If you do not have time to participate in the future, do try to contribute today as much as today and request replacement. | ||
YourHarry
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On August 16 2012 11:07 DarthPunk wrote: Re-reading the thread something Thrawn stated seemed incredibly suspicious. Why are you actively trying to prove that someone is a town? rather than find the scum? what possible town motivation is behind this? It seems to me like you are trying to convince the one person at that time whom had still expressed doubts on Your harry's alignment to believe that he was town and not scum. This is not pro-town activity. Spending time trying to convince a particular person of a players green status day one is scum behaviour. Establishing someone as confirmed townie is actually very advantageous for town. Masons, for example, are nothing but confirmed townies to each other and can be very powerful, especially in the late game. It is also another reason why scums prefer to NK confirmed townies. But, of course, it is difficult to establish to 100% confirm townies, just like it is difficult to establish confirmed scums. So I agree that, in the beginning of the game, we should focus more on establishing scum read. But if obvious town read sticks out, we should share it with others. It is scum motivation to do the opposite - to limit as many town reads as possible. | ||
YourHarry
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Were you not suspicious of me because of those posts? | ||
YourHarry
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On August 16 2012 13:15 goodkarma wrote: And the "Sigh..." comment that you're embellishing has nothing to do with me thinking Solar was a "confirmed town." It had to do with frustration with the scenario of us wasting our entire day tunneling and lynching a bad town (which I still believe Solar to be). In said scenario, we go into day two without any information. It's a terrible situation, because it makes day two into another day one with fewer town. But there were cases that were made, including a few that have been made by Shady, that outlined why Solar was scummy. It was not just that Solar seemed to be trolling that I (and others) thought that Solar was suspicious. But instead of evaluating points of these cases, you simply dismissed them. Giving him an advice to Solar to respond in a coherent manner is one thing and I would have been fine with it. But outright dismissing cases against Solar, simply because Solar seemed to be trolling and hyper-aggressive ... I have hard time understand how a town not knowing Solar's alignment would act in the way you did. | ||
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And actually, upon re-evaluation, I can accept the possibility that GK was indeed not sure about Solar's alignment but was indeed worried that we may tunnel on a player that he somehow thought was a town. Still, the alternative is also possible. It could have been a scum slip that GK is now fabricating the explanations for. Either way, since this is WIFOM, I want to partially retract my case against GK. But I still want to know why he didn't find me suspicious for keep bringing his name up, and why he decided to dismiss the points made in other people's case against Solar. | ||
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Shady, regarding your accusation of thrawn, are you suspecting Thrawn and Golbat are scums together, because of their weird interactions? The first part of your accusation, Shady, I do not disagree with. Why is it scummy to ask me who I thought are top scum candidates? It would have made sense to ask such question since most of our conversation was based on who I thought was confirmed townie in Solar. Also, his analysis of the possibilities of what happened. Logically I see some holes in his argument, but attempting to analyze what had happened systematically I think is a town tell. | ||
YourHarry
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489¤tpage=15#300 Then also suspects Thrawn and Ochrow are working together in his next post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=359489¤tpage=16#303 He further explains later, saying that Thrawn used Ochrow's reason to suspect Arch. Citing someone else's case to suspect a scummy player is NOT a scum tell. It is a reasonable and resopnsible thing to do, in fact. But it is indeed suspicious that Thrawn denies this claim. Thrawn, do you standby the fact that your post was NOT affected by Ochrow's? And Shady's further suspicion depends on the fact that Thrawn and Ochrow share similar reads on some of the players. Now, how someone would think that this is an indication that those two are working together seems just unreasonable. In fact, mathematically all townies must share similar reads on some subset group of players all the time. So far, it feels like Shady is over-reaching to build some cases. BTW, has Golbat posted yet? | ||
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Still, I don't have a formal case against Shady. While his behavior sounds scummy and his theories sound like they originated from him imagination, this is not necessarily a scum tell. And to be honest, I did not have time to read all the cases carefully so I am not sure. If I had to choose between Shady and thrawn though, I will choose Shady. ##Unvote ##Vote Shady | ||
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I think most important thing is how promising is it that these lurkers will become active posters. I see Arch beginning to contribute, now that there are more posts to go on. So I think Arch could be more active from now on, which will give us posts to base our reads on. | ||
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On August 17 2012 07:26 Archrun wrote: Currently, I feel that if Shady is lynched and is town then we should lynch Thrawn, Likewise, if Thrawn is lynch then we should lynch Shady. If one of them is scum then the other is town. I doubt any busing is occurring because if they were on a team they could of just focus me rather than fight among each other. With that I am going to keep my vote but if Thrawn flips townie Shady is becomes my number one suspect. Honestly I did not have time to read everything, but this seems alarmingly scummy to me. I had an experience in one of my earlier games where scum was basically trying to benefit from mislynch. ##Unvote ##Vote Archrun | ||
YourHarry
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http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&user=263567¤tpage=2 I know it was a different player, but the style and the motive of the posting is so similar. | ||
YourHarry
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I would like recruit people to support a lynch against Archrun. Archrun flipping scum likely means that Thrawn and Shady (Thrawn, especially) are probably town. | ||
YourHarry
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Guys this is NOT a majority lynch. Whoever gets the most votes will be lynched. | ||
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Archrun said: Currently, I feel that if Shady is lynched and is town then we should lynch Thrawn, Likewise, if Thrawn is lynch then we should lynch Shady. If one of them is scum then the other is town. I doubt any busing is occurring because if they were on a team they could of just focus me rather than fight among each other. With that I am going to keep my vote but if Thrawn flips townie Shady is becomes my number one suspect. You guys don't think Archrun is trying to benefit from the mislynch. If Thrawn flips town, he is basically trying to secure the Shady lynch. You may argue that town Archrun actually believes that exactly one of Trhawn or Shady is scum, but I have hard time accepting this because he leaves out one possibility that they are both town. | ||
YourHarry
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YourHarry
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##Vote Shady | ||
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YourHarry
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The history repeats itself, and it almost repeated itself today... if we could have lynched Archrun. This exact same style of posting and motivation happened in my previous game, where the scum was trying to benefit from a mislynch in me. I referenced the filter consisting of this scum player from the earlier game earlier. But here it is again: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=351398&user=263567¤tpage=2 In that game, we were able to switch our lynch last minute from me to this scum player. In this game we came short, but at least it strengthens my read. And this also means that Thrawn is town. Because Archrun was indeed counting on Thrawn's mislynch AND THEN Shady's mislynch. I believe both of these players to be town. | ||
YourHarry
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This way, no matter who we lynch first, he wants to lynch two townies in Shady and Thrawn (no I am not making a scum slip based on my knowledge that both Shady and Thrawn are town). It is true, I may have misinterpreted GK's post (I still not sure, but let's suppose that I did). The difference is that the Archrun's proposal is clearly scum motivated. | ||
YourHarry
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Also, I would appreciate any comment on what you think about my interpretation of Archrun's post, that he was trying to benefit from the mislynch. | ||
YourHarry
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On August 17 2012 08:21 Golbat wrote: He spends the remainder of the time up until now either asking for other peoples reads or talking about archrun, until joining the shady wagon. He mentions several times how his vote was "not an OMGUS" and then he says this. He's begging people to post something so he can sheep it. It's so far beyond just poor play that I can't really believe he isn't scum. He talks about scumhunting and how everyone else should do it, without ever doing it himself. If that isn't scummy, I don't know what is. You do realize that Thrawn was not sheeping on Shady lynch. He was one of the people who was vocal about his suspicion of Shady. He also outlined a case against Arch. Have you read these posts? If so, I don't know how you claim that Thrawn is attempting to sheep. If anything, his asking why we should go after a lurker, instead of someone he has scummy evidence for, means that he is not trying to base his vote on lurking alone. On August 17 2012 08:09 Golbat wrote: If one player comes up town, that never makes another player scum 100%. Unless you have some inside info, you just pulled this thought out of your ass. Either way, Archrun is on my radar now because townies should never be thinking like that. My vote stands on thrawn, but Archrun is gonna have some 'splaining to do. I agree with you here, thus explaining my scum reads on Archrun. Not to repeat myself so many times, but for emphasis: it is apparent that Archrun is trying to benefit from mislynching two bad players. The only drawback of this Archrun's strategy is that he may look bad after both Thrawn and Shady flip town. In either case, do you agree that if Archrun flips scum, Thrawn is almost confirmed town? | ||
YourHarry
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On August 17 2012 08:40 marvellosity wrote: Vote count, cowboys: ShadySands (4): thrawn2112, SolarSail, mkfuba07, Jhuyt thrawn2112 (4): ShadySands, Archrun, DarthPunk, Golbat Archrun (3): Stutters695. Ochrow, YourHarry Jhuyt (2): goodkarma, Z-Boson Shady Sands currently set to be lynched. 20 minutes until the deadline! Unless three scums were all already voting for ShadySands, if Thrawn is indeed scum, one of his scum partners would have tried to move his vote to ShadySands. While Shady was set to be lynched because he was the first player to receive 4 votes, it would have been still dangerous from scum's perspective because all it takes is one townie to switch his vote to Thrawn and the scum would be lynched. But this did not happen, which is consistent with Thrawn being town. Two possible scenarios that counter this argument are that: 1) Scums were simply not around to make last minute changes in this vote. This seems possible because it was pretty close to the deadline when I changed my vote from Shady to Archrun and Golbat placed his vote on Thrawn. This is not completely out of the question, but A) considering that scums still had one hour window to make the move and B) that scum Thrawn means that his scum partners would have been very well aware that Thrawn was a strong lynch candidate (based on discussion that happened hours prior to the deadline), I suspect that Tharwn's scum teammates would have been watching things closely. 2) Thrawn's scum partners were too hesitant to switch their votes, in fear that it would make them suspicious. This is possible, but maybe it would not have been too difficult to fabricate some wishy-washy with reasons for change in opinion. And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Archrun lynch over Thrawn lynch happens. But in summary, until I changed my vote from Archrun to Shady, which happened like 2 minutes before the deadline, the scums had some window of opportunity to switch their votes to Shady (unless all three were already voting for Shady) in order to provide a some protection against last minutes switch of votes to their scum partner Thrawn. This is not a fool-proof evidence, as there are possible exceptions listed above 1) and 2) but I think this should render additional evidence that Thrawn is town (and thus both Thrawn and Shady are town) which would confirm my suspicion that Archrun is attempting to benefit from mislynching two townies. | ||
YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On August 17 2012 08:19 DarthPunk wrote: You are now Guilty of the exact same thing as Archun except you have worded it without looking blatantly suspicious. That makes you more suspicious to me than Archun's post did. I don't see why you have a 'strong town read' on thrawn, I don't think any one in their right mind could have a strong town read on him at this point in time. I could see why you don't think he is the best lynch candidate, but strong town read? give me a break. In no way at all does Archun's post confirm Thrawn as town. Jesus Christ. First thrawn does it for you and now you are doing it for thrawn. I do not venture to say Thrawn is confirmed town. I am pretty sure he is town, and maybe we disagree. But if Arch flips scum, would you agree that Thrawn is almost confirmed town? | ||
YourHarry
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YourHarry
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I also read your bread-crumb post. Initially thought you were investigator due to this post: On August 17 2012 14:58 thrawn2112 wrote: I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up. I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated. Expect my next post to contain my read on Archrun, and possibly reads on some other players who were outspoken in the shady/thrawn debate. I knew you were blue role either way. It makes sense though, you asking the detective to not investigate Archrun because you were going to target him anyway. | ||
YourHarry
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On August 18 2012 10:49 thrawn2112 wrote: You say that my argument concerning mkfuba is wifom. However I think it provides a very strong reason why I wouldn't kill mkfuba as scum thrawn. He was the MOST convinced that I was town, and wrote a very long argument as to why he believed so. He had the strongest town read on me, and was killed. I cannot conceive of any possible mafia plot that would involve killing a town player who gave the best case as to why a scum player is town. But this indeed is WIFOM. The explanation you gave - as to why you wouldn't target mkfuba as scum - is the basis for "mafia plot that would involve killing a town player who gave the best case as to why a scum player is town". Because if people generally accepted what you are saying is true - that mkfuba's NK would mean town thrawn - this is the exactly the reason why scum thrawn may think about targeting mkfuba. Re-evaluating... | ||
YourHarry
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One one hand, I think Thrawn is town for targeting Archrun. Because if Thrawn is scum, he would have known that Archrun is town - thus Archrun flipping town would make Thrawn suspicious. This target would make sense if Thrawn is town because after witnessing people cast suspicions on him, he wanted to confirm himself as town by making the vig kill on scum Archrun. But on the other hand, I can see scum Thrawn making the fake "bread crumb" warning the detective not to investigate Archrun - then making himself look town by targeting Orchrun anyway. It would be a convincing story after all, as Thrawn can argue what I just argued above and say "if I was scum, why would I have targeted Orchrun to make myself suspicious". And it does make sense to leave the subtle breadcrumb post as scum, because as scum, Thrawn must first had to confirm if there is an additional night kill. Because if there is no SK, there only would have been one night kill and Thrawn could not have pulled off his fake role as a vigilante. Only by seeing that there are two night kills, Thrawn could then come out and fit the pieces together - citing his night post as evidence that he wanted the detective to check out someone other than Archrun. (As an aside, this means that SK targeted mkfuba. I think the strategy for SK is to try to go after scummy. Which means the SK is not likely to be one of the people who had strong town read on mkfuba. Anyway, I digress.) One part of the "bread crumb post" - which he denies is the breadcrumb post - that I think makes Thrawn suspicious is that he asks detective not to check Thrawn. It makes sense from vigilante Thrawn's point of view to have the detective check on someone other than Archrun, but why would vigilante Thrawn discourage the detective to check Thrawn? Maybe it can be argued that vigilante Thrawn thought that he could prove his innocence by saying that he targeted Archrun. But in general, I am inclined to believe that townies want the detective to investigate him unless he was a MILLER or something. Such investigation may not be most efficient, but generally the townies have the desire to be confirmed townie. So the fact that Thrawn discouraged the detective to check him makes me suspicious of Thrawn. And, to be honest, my strong town read on Thrawn was mostly based on my certainty that Archrun was scum. I was pretty sure that his motivation was to lynch both townies in Thrawn and Shady. But obviously I was wrong, and maybe Archrun was right after all. I am leaning toward Thrawn scum. | ||
YourHarry
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If Thrawn is scum, then there must be SK. So there should be two kills tomorrow, which would mean that Thrawn is scum., because if Thrawn was vigilante, there is no SK based on last night's actions and there can only be 1 kill tomorrow. And there is no reason for SK to not send in the kill, because if there is SK, he must already know that Thrawn is scum because there were only 2 kills last night- rather than 3. And SK's primary target is always scum, so he would want to send in the kill so that towns can lynch Thrawn. One flaw in this strategy is that, Tharwn's scum team may already know that there is SK (due to 2 night kills last night and no vigilante counter claiming). This means that scum team may give up their night killing power, to make it look like there is no SK - which would imply that Thrawn is town. But this cannot be the long term strategy because scum team can never send in a kill for rest of the game - otherwise Thrawn will be autolynched. This would be way to favorable for SK, and scum would rather choose to lose one scum in Thrawn than hand the game over to SK. So this is what I propose. We lynch someone else and see how many people night kills there are tomorrow to determine Thrawn's alignment. | ||
YourHarry
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YourHarry
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Aside from the ease with which the Thrawn bandwagon is gaining momentum (an attempted scum lynch typically is followed by scum resistance), I expressed my opinion that after my initial town read on Thrawn based on Archrun being scum went out the window, I wanted to re-evaluate my read on Thrawn. And the combination of 1) Thrawn denying his breadcrumb post and 2) his claiming only after the second night kill was apparent makes me think that Thrawn is attempting to sell his vigilante story. If he did actually leave a bread crumb post saying that he is vigilante, I would have been more likely to buy his claim because then he would be incriminated in case there is no SK - and thus only one night kill. At this point, it seems like a safe claim from scum's point of view - knowing that SK would never claim at this point. And as far as the quick wagon on Thrawn, it is possible that all of the players voting for Thrawn are indeed all townies and they are correct about Thrawn being scum. And I guess it is also possible that one or more scums are bussing their scum partner in Thrawn. In addition, I also find Thrawn's attempt to discourage the detective from investigating him (despite him not having the misfortune of being the miller) suspicious. I tend to think that townies want to feel the peace of mind in being confirmed by the detective. And, I was not trying to keep Thrawn alive as long as possible, per se. I just thought that there could have been a strategy that we can employ that would allow us to find out Thrawn's alignment without having to compromise town's interest. But as goodkarma suggested, since townies can get a medic save OR scums may intentionally forgo one night kill (although extended giving up of the scum kill power or SK not sending in the kill could be eliminated from the possibility, for reasons I described earlier). As such, I am withdrawing my proposal to try to wait and see Thrawn's alignment. I understand that if Thrawn does flip scum, this will make me suspicious for seemingly trying to defend Thrawn. But you should realize that scums tend not to defend each other so directly and conspicuously, in fear that such defense could lead to one being scum must be the other one being scum. And while that this may be WIFOM, it is also true that in practice such eye-catching defenses almost never occurs between two scums. Also, if you do get a chance, I advise everyone to read the XXI game (Mafia XXI Link and Scum Dr. Wiggle's Filter). I believe you will have a much easier time understanding where I was coming from, in terms of my strong suspicion of Archrun and thus my earlier town read on Thrawn. For reasons explained above: ##Vote Thrawn | ||
YourHarry
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YourHarry
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While it is true that I may have briefly mentioned my town read on Archrun on Day 1, when deciding to lynch between Archrun and Shady, at the time it was only a mild town read based on the fact that explanations given by Thrawn made logical sense to me. After Archrun's post outlining what seemed to be his scum plan of action, Thrawn was indeed almost as good as confirmed townie in my mind. And this was due to my thinking that Archrun was scum. But I don't think I ever claimed that he is a confirmed townie. I did say that he is a confirmed townie if Archrun flipped scum, which he didn't. Recent postings make me think that Thrawn and Golbat are on the same team. This post stands out: On August 18 2012 15:10 Golbat wrote: I am in agreement that we should just lynch thrawn here. We seem to have caught a scum or even two, I think if thrawn flips scum then YH is almost certainly scum. Obviously, from my perspective, this only sounds like Golbat is trying to mislynch me knowing that Thrawn will flip scum. There are other two players who suspect me of being scum with Thrawn: Darth and GK. But despite my previous suspicion of GK, their outlining of cases actually make some logical sense right now and they seem to be actually trying to scum hunt. (And I admit that I may look scummy right now for flip flopping my vote and trying to defend Thrawn). On the other hand, Golbat suddenly shows up and basically sheeps other people's cases. Only thing that seems a bit weird is that he is one of the first players to cast a vote against Thrawn, when day 2 opened, after Darth. However, this may be mafia QT planned action to encourage Golbat to bus against Thrawn - one who is likely to be suspected anyway due to Day 1 mislynch of Shady. More importantly, Thrawn suddenly suspects Golbat, because he is lurking. Even though there are other lurkers, he specifically picks out Golbat just because he recently posted. While I agree that pressuring lurkers is a good strategy, Thrawn did not have any interaction with Golbat... but all of the sudden, he singles him out. Thrawn at this point knows that his lynch is imminent, and that there is nothing he can do to avoid flipping red. This to me seems like his attempt to distance himself from his scum partner in Golbat: On August 18 2012 15:40 thrawn2112 wrote: You are right that there is no evidence in either direction to prove or disprove my vig claim. I only vig claimed to give an explanation as to how things could have worked out the way they did if I am town. I'm going to respond to your post, but it is VERY long and references tons of other posts all of which are very long so don't expect a response for quite awhile. I am also busy scumhunting but this is having to be done on my own because I don't have any credibility right now. Just to give you an idea of what leads I'm going after, here is my interpretation of what's going on. So far 3 town players have been killed/lynched. The scum I suspected (archrun and shady) of being behind my D1 lynch case turned out to be town. While this is going on there are a few players that have posted very, very little content. My conclusion is that either the scum team are doing an extremely good job of hiding their actions or that there is at least one, if not probably more than 1 scum among the lurkers. I am currently looking at Gobalt because his latest contribution was a vote for me and his only motivation for that vote was that he agreed with what others have said. Since the shady lynching he hasn't contributed anything beyond the post I pointed out in my post before this one and I would like to hear what he has to say. There are other lurkers too but since he is in the thread right now we had better get him posting while we can. Taken together, I think this strongly suggests that Thrawn and Golbat are scums together. | ||
YourHarry
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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Seriously, not answering questions from a lurker who barely posted seems like a forced reason to put more suspicion on Thrawn, which seems like an attempt to protect yourself after Thrawn flips scum. | ||
YourHarry
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DarthPunk goodkarma Golbat thrawn2112 Jhuyt SolarSail Z-BosoN Stutters695 Ochrow Darth is almost for sure not the SK, especially because he was roleblocked and there was a second night kill. SK should also be very quick to dismiss any vigilante claim, because there were only two night kills. SK, if vig claim is true, should have expected 3 night kills. In this regard, Darth, Golbat, Solar and GK are likely candidates. Darth, for reason mentioned above, is not SK. Golbat I think is scum. Either Solar or GK could be SK. Also, assuming that SK was aiming for the scum, he must have thought that mkfuba is scum. In this respect, Solar or Ochrow could be the SK because they both believed my mason-read claim and may have thought that mkfuba who was suspicious of me was scum. This is, admittedly, a weak connection but I think this is a possibility. Solar also was one of the players who quickly dismissed Thrawn's vigilante claim. Z-boson hasn't posted today yet, but he seemed to suspect me on Day 1 so I don't think he would have targeted mkfuba as SK. So, unlikely to be the SK. Stutters makes this possibly suspicious post regarding SK on Day 1: On August 15 2012 10:29 Stutters695 wrote: In regards to an SK: I agree with discussing the SK being a waste of time. It will become obvious very quickly if there is an SK when multiple people are dying nightly. He also ends up voting for Archrun, and may have thought that I was townie. Thus, Stutter targeting mkfuba, who was suspicious of me, could be consistent with Stutter being the SK. So, currently I think two likely SK candidates are Solar and Stutter and then maybe GoodKarma. For now though, we should focus more on lynching the scums than SK, as SK could help us target some of the scums. | ||
YourHarry
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On August 18 2012 18:09 thrawn2112 wrote: FOS yourharry Yourharry has a long track record of posting one liners. One liners are likely to come from scum, as the scum can appear active and even appear to be scumhunting without saying anything of substance for the town to analyze. I have gone through his filter and quoted all his one liners. I tried not to include posts that shouldn't be relevant, such as asking mods questions and things like that. There are several posts I didn't include that were very short but at least were composed of more than a single sentence Do you think I specifically need those one liners to appear to be scum hunting and active? Really?? And flip-flopping of my votes is just reflection of my changing reads on people. Some of my suspicions could have come from gut feeling, but I think I can explain most of my flip flops. I will do it later if people ask me to. I will be back later. Hopefully we'd get some posts from the lurkers. Z-boson, Ochrow, and Solar need to post more. | ||
YourHarry
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I actually thought the rest of my post was pretty reasonable. If you disagree with the content of my post, please point it out, as you did by pointing it out the possibility that SK may not quickly dismiss vig claim, to disguise himself from looking like a SK. I feel it is unfair to dismiss rest of my post because you disagree with my first part of the post. And as for the purpose of the post, I thought I had a pretty grasp on who the SK may be. So I wanted to share that information. And you say that if Thrawn is vig, I am 100% scum. I don't think Thrawan is vig, but let's suppose that he is vigilante. What does scum Harry have to gain by trying to confirm Thrawn's alignment based on tonight's actions. Also, looking back on Day 1, why would scum Harry make himself so suspicious by preferring to lynch Archrun or even Shady, when scum Harry knew that Thrawn lynch would be just fine? To me, mislynch in Archrun, Shady, or Thrawn would have been just fine. On the other hand, it was because I had a strong scum read on Archrun, that I wanted to defend Thrawn. | ||
YourHarry
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On August 19 2012 08:18 goodkarma wrote: YourHarry, please explain your flip-flops. Thanks ![]() My initial suspicion on Thrawn was based on what I thought were Thrawn's wishy washy posts. It was low content post, partially to get the discussion going. Similar with my suspicion on Solar. Agreed with Shady's case on Solar, especially the part where Solar talked about how it must be scared to play the game as scum. It may sound stupid, but I felt Solar was expressing his fear of playing as scum. I admit, low content but reinforced by my gut feeling that Solar and Thrawn were scum together. Sometimes this can't be helped. Also, to get the discussion going in the early game. My dismissal of Solar being scum. My mist interpretation of Goodkarma. I strongly believed that Solar and Goodkarma were mason buddies. Was wrong. Which made me suspect whoever seemed to be attacking Solar. Mkfuba wasn't even attacking Solar. So it was stupid for me to accuse Mkfuba, but I did because of my paranoia in thinking that Mkfuba was preparing subtle plans to incriminate Solar. Mkfuba who later explained that he was defending Solar, made me think he was being sneaky. Attacking of Goodkarma. Once I realized that GK and Solar were not mason buddies, it made me think that GK somehow knew Solar was town. Made me suspect GK. Everyone else disagreed. Voting of Shady. I was at work and only skimmed through. Chose Shady over Thrawn, because Thrawn's defense against Shady made logical sense to me. Did not particularly think Shady was scummy, but at the time it looked like only choices were Thrawn or Shady. The last part is arguable. Voting of Archrun. I had strong read on this, based on Archrun saying that exactly one of Thrawn or Shady is scum. Based on experience. Strong defense of Thrawn. Because I thought Archrun was for sure scum. This made me think Thrawn was for sure town, because ARchrun wanted to lynch Thrawn and Shady. Night post from Thrawn made me think he was blue role. So I quickly believed Thrawn's vig claim. Upon re-evaluation and taking into account that Archrun flipped town, I had to get rid of my initial town read on Thrawn. And when Thrawn denied his breadcrumb post, made me think why did vig not leave a breadcrumb post. It followed that Thrawn had to wait until the SK kill was apparent, before he could ever claim. Also the fact that I think in the same "breadcrumb" post, Thrawn discouraged the detective to check him out. So now pretty strong scum read on Thrawn. | ||
YourHarry
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On August 19 2012 13:10 goodkarma wrote: @YourHarry: Now that you're back, would you mind taking a few moments to share your read on Ochrow? You've been very vocal about others, but I've heard hardly anything about him from you. OK. He hasn't posted much, and can I talk about my theories regarding him. I have had so much suspicion on me for being wrong about my assumptions, but I have an alignment-related theories. I guess it should be OK because I could be wrong and scums may not believe me anyway or if they believe me they may be wrong. | ||
YourHarry
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I have a town read on him. I don't know if Ochrow was scum with Thrawn, he would NOT have coordinated such similar ideas with Thrawn. Maybe WIFOM, but I think it is just as likely that their similar postings were coincidence. | ||
YourHarry
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Stutter wrote:I'm going to go through filters and draw up some better cases after I run to the store, but just some food for thought. I'd wager that if Thrawn is actually Vig, YH is scum 100%. | ||
YourHarry
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YourHarry
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First, me thinking that GK and Solar are masons. You are right, that it would be more difficult for town to make that read because town may have thought that GK and Solar are scums together. But I did, also. I explain it in my earlier explanation. And while making that assumption that GK and Solar are probably not scums together could be WIFOM, wouldn't you say it is understandable for a townie to think "Hmm, I doubt scum GK would defend scum Solar so openly because it would be too obvious that the other is scum, if one of them flips red." And if I was scum, why would I have withdrawn my suspicion on Solar - unless Solar is my scum partner. If scum Harry thought that he identified two mason brothers, would he have not kept it a secret and maybe target one of them at night... instead of withdrawing suspicion on Solar - unless Solar is my scum buddy. And if scum Harry was doing this simply to earn some town points, would he not more readily revealed his read that GK and Solar are masons - instead of waiting, despite much suspicion, until it became apparent that they were not masons? | ||
YourHarry
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On August 19 2012 14:02 DarthPunk wrote: OMFG you are doing it AGAIN?!?!? Seriously YH? what is wrong with you. Once again hinting at outside information or making a pants on head retarded read. and not telling us. What town motive could there be in not sharing this info? What possible read could you get from ochrows non-existent filter? I am assuming you are hinting a blue read. ![]() | ||
YourHarry
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I also defended him when like 4 players in a row were accusing him. At the time, the implication of Archrun flipping town was not incorporated in my head. Why would I try so hard to defend my scum buddy seems to be hopeless. And it may look like I am trying to bus Thrawn because I switched my suspicion to him, it also made sense from my perspective. Upon re-evaluating, I realized that Thrawn was scummy. | ||
YourHarry
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On August 19 2012 14:09 DarthPunk wrote: Too much WIFOM. I think you already know this. But it makes the majority of this post meaningless. But if it is WIFOM, then why does it make me scummy? Shouldn't it be a null tell? If it is possible for a townie to make that connection, I could either be town or scum? | ||
YourHarry
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You accuse me for defending Thrawn, because scum Harry would defend Thrawn. But even if I were to bus Thrawn in the beginning of Day 2, you could have made the case that scum Harry is simply defending his scum partner. Similarly, if it is possible for scum Harry to continue to defend Thrawn, despite others being suspicious, because busing would have made Harry suspicious - "he is simply trying to bus afterall" | ||
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YourHarry
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I know Thrawn and Darth scum team would be surprising, because of how hard Darth has been accusing Thrawn. But this can be explained because Thrawn flipping scum may almost confirm Darth as town. This may have been their initial plan, and Thrawn's distancing of Golbat can be classified as similar strategy. Sacrifice one scum to mislead town to believe Golbat and Darth are townies. Also, one of my initial town read on Darth based on his claiming roleblock is not justified. Scums can also claim roleblock, because there could be no roleblocker OR the there could be a town roleblocker. | ||
YourHarry
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What I did not want to talk about - and I realize I should not have brought it up in the first place- is what I think about Ochrow's role. I got heavy suspicion for doing something similar on Day 1, and there is no merit talking about it - except that I will probably get more suspicion for having more information than I should have - whether or not I was wrong. As to why I did not call out Ochrow: I was not even aware of it. How many times did I call lurkers out - I did not make sure that I got every single lurkers out. In fact, I thought in one of the list, I copied lurker list provided by previous poster and eliminated names who posted since then. I simply missed him for some reason... | ||
YourHarry
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[QUOTE]On August 17 2012 14:58 thrawn2112 wrote: I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up. I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated. First it seems redundant as town to say "me being lynched is not good for town" but to say in a more active form "me being lynched is good for scum" makes it feel like you are claiming a power role. Second, are you not discouraging the detective to check someone other than you or Archrun? | ||
YourHarry
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@Thrawn You said this was not your breadcrumb post. What was your intention with the bolded part: On August 17 2012 14:58 thrawn2112 wrote: I could not understand why shady was pushing so hard to have me lynched. I had given him sufficient arguments to back down on his claims, and I didn't feel like he was paying attention to any of my responses. My being lynched would benefit the scum team, and so the longer he continued to press his case against me the more and more I thought he was scum. Archrun was another player who moved to lynch me for reasons I didn't think were genuine so I also thought he could be scum. My vote for shady was based on shady being the most vocal, and in my eyes, stubborn about me being scum. The current debate is over whether I or Archrun are scum. Before the vote Archrun said that if shady is town, then I should be lynched. Yourharry is saying that if Archrun is scum, then I am town. My efforts are going to be focused on going through Archrun's filter, and I will post about it if I find something worth bringing up. I don't think that town should focus 100% on Archrun and I. After I go through Archrun's filter I will also read through the filters of the people most outspoken in the debate over shady/thrawn and I think everyone else should do the same. I realize I haven't posted much of substance, but I thought it was worth saying that Archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated. First it seems redundant as town to say "me being lynched is not good for town" but to say in a more active form "me being lynched is good for scum" makes it feel like you are claiming a power role. Second, are you not discouraging the detective to check someone other than you or Archrun? | ||
YourHarry
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YourHarry
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On August 19 2012 15:17 thrawn2112 wrote: The first part was to explain why I voted for shady. Look at that bolded part in context with the rest of the sentence and it makes sense. The second part was based on the true statement that archrun and I shouldn't be the only people investigated. It isn't good for town to limit investigations to only two people, and because I accidentally mislynched a green player (shady) I realized that I was being too focused on my reads and not bothering to give a hard enough look at other players. I am having second thoughts about Thrawn. First thing that doesn't make sense if Thrawn is scum: If Thrawn is indeed scum then he left that "bread crumb" post so that he can use that as evidence to mislead the town that he is vigilante. But Thrawn denied this post as the "bread crumb" post, and in his initial claim, he never even referenced this post in the first place... Second thing that I am not sure about is that, claiming vigilante is so dangerous for scum. One weak point in this line of thinking is that Thrawn did ask the mod to confirm that there could be more than one vigilante. I think it is possible that scum Thrawn DID ask the moderator in private prior to asking publicly that there could be more than one vigilante. STILL, whether or not there could be two vigilante... a counter vigilante claim would definitely have made Thrawn look suspicious. Would it not? I am not sure scum would have taken this risk. | ||
YourHarry
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On August 20 2012 08:09 Solarsail wrote: What a surprise. Scum YH has a good motivation for this: be accused as one of the three, bus Thrawn to save yourself when the case against you looks strong, and backtrack on that close to deadline when he's about to be lynched and people are talking about switching. That is not the reason for my switch, but I understand your suspicion. I can't move my vote for now because if I do, I will be lynched. | ||
YourHarry
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YourHarry
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YourHarry
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##Vote Jhyut | ||
YourHarry
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On August 20 2012 08:27 Z-BosoN wrote: Woooow I simply can't process what YH is saying. His posting is utter garbage, his explanations make little sense... This behavior is quite scummy and has been like this since day one. Right now I tend to agree with DarthPunk, YH's posts about thrawn have been especially messed up. I'm sticking with thrawn, because I'm pretty damn sure he's scum, I find it extremely hard to think he is vigi, and I agree with the YH + thrawn scumteam. Did you read my defense of Thrawn. What part of it does NOT make sense to you? Would scum really plan to fake vig? You dont think it's risky? WHen scum Thrawn could have easily taken the safer way of not lynching Archrun, and hten going after Archrun during the day? | ||
YourHarry
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On August 20 2012 08:29 goodkarma wrote: @YourHarry: What do you think of Obvious/Ochrow? I feel the case against Ochrow has already been well presented, but Obvious's OMGUS response so far instead of constructive contributions on current lynch candidates gives me a scum read on him (even if for a second I were to ignore Ochrow ever existed...). What are your thoughts and impressions on this? And who is your strongest scum read if it's not Thrawn? Golbat? I would be interested in knowing. And if you are a townie in danger of being mislynched it would benefit all of us to know your reads before you potentially die and any reads you haven't shared are lost forever. My case against Golbat and Darth was based on my scum read on Thrawn. Not sure anymore. | ||
YourHarry
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@Solar, my brief explanation is in the post before my vote. | ||
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Other than that he is lurking, which is true, and he has been wishy washy (also true). His filter doesn't seem particularly scummy to me. | ||
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On August 20 2012 08:51 thrawn2112 wrote: yourharry what does you knowing your alignment have anything to do with your thoughts on the thrawn/ochrow qt theory? GK was accusing Ochrow for defending me. I guess it is possible for scum Ochrow to defend me too, but I thought GK was saying that scum Ochrow was defending his scum partner in me. | ||
YourHarry
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On August 20 2012 08:53 Solarsail wrote: Vote reverting to Thrawn per my earlier post since an Obvious lynch is not really possible in 7 minutes. ##Vote: Thrawn2112 If I had to choose, I would pick Obvious over Thrawn. I am willing to vote for Obvious at this point. Guys, can we move ?? | ||
YourHarry
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##Vote Thrawn I hope Thrawn is scum | ||
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Golbat Jhyut Golbat has been active in the beginning of Day 2, votes Thrawn and then disappeared. Jhyut had be sporadic poster, and is my current top scum suspect. I thought he was something else earlier... I want him to respond to Thrawn's case against him. @Jhyut, did you read the post where I ask you to read my defense against you carefully? Solar, has posted little but I don't know if he qualifies as a lurker. I do agree that he should post more. | ||
YourHarry
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YourHarry
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I think regardless of who we decide to lynch next, we should consider no lynch today. Allowing the mafia to make the first move is good so we have more information. Currently we have 5 town and 3 scums. If we lynch incorrectly, we would be down to 4 towns and 3 scums and the game is likely to be over outside a medic save. Instead, by letting the scums to kill first, we will have more time to discuss and smaller pool (one fewer person) to pick the mafia from. This will increase our chance of correct lynch. Only down side to this strategy is that in 4 town 3 scum scenario, with exception of busing, all 4 town players have to agree to lynch the scum. A good measure to bypass this is for everyone to claim tomorrow, aggregate our reports, and decide on the town leader among confirmed townies. Claiming in the beginning is bad, of course, because power roles do not have much information. I think claiming at this point (or tomorrow) is a good strategy because we can combine information from everyone to possibly secure a scum lynch. We can probably establish confirmed townies as well, to pick the town leader from. Then we examine and try to make sense players' earlier actions based on whatever reports we can aggregate. This could obviously help the scums to decide on the future target, but this matters LESS because near the end of the game, there are only few more days to use their power anyway. And possibly with help of roleblocker or medic to delay the death of our investigator roles. This would be IMMENSELY helpful as our investigators would have very small pool of players to suspect scums from. Also, based on our reports, we pick the town leader from the confirmed townies. This town leader ultimately should have the power to select the lynch candidate. This way we can stop scum's number advantage, and overcome the difficulty of all four townies' ability to gang up against one scum. Otherwise, the townie consensus on one scum would be almost impossible to be reached. I would like to hear other people's thoughts on no lynch today. | ||
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GK/Darth: They never suspected each other once this game. This seems suspicious, especially after Thrawn mislynch. They state they arrived at similar reads on Thrawn, for different reasons, but as townies I would expect them to at least be suspicious of each other after Thrawn flipped town. But scums never attacking each other the whole game is not a common practice, and with my imagination acting up again, I tend to believe the alternate theory that they are both towns. The fact that they changed their reads based on Thrawn flipping town (especially me not being the top scum reads anymore) is consistent with the theory. I would have expected scum GK/Darth to continue to tunnel me, despite Thrawn lynch. Golbat: He is lynching for sure, but Jhyut being targeted should make him less scummy. This is because after GK outlined his case on Jhyut being the top scum read and Golbat being the second person we should lynch, I cannot imagine scum team including Golbat to NK the top scum read to make it dangerous for Golbat to be lynched. Solar: Solar seems scummy for sheeping GK to vote against Golbat. He readily says that he believes GK as town, and this is the reason for voting GK (though he rather vote for Obvious himself). While this makes sense based on GK's post asking for townie to follow the leader to choose the lynch candidate, the day just started. I would expect that town Solar to gather more evidence and understand the reasoning behind Golbat lynch, rather than so quickly trying to jump on the bandwagon against Golbat. This makes it seem that scum Solar just wants to mislynch one more townie for the win. And by association, I think if Solar is scum, Obvious is likely to be his scum partner based on Solar's publicly announced finding of Obvious scum YET voting for Golbat. | ||
YourHarry
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I don't think it is bad to ask this question at this point. I don't think other power roles should claim, but I think this question would help the town. GK and Darth, are you guys mason brothers? | ||
YourHarry
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Z-boson's suspect list went: me, Jhyut, Golbat Darth's suspect list: Golbat, Jhyut, Solar GK's suspect list: Golbat, Jhyut, Obvious Maybe WIFOM. But to me, I still can't get my head around scum Golbat lynching town Jhyut, who seemed to be scum Golbat's only way out. Regards to no lynching, the only caveat for choosing to lynch today rather than tomorrow is the medic save. But if we decide to go ahead with our lynch today, I think claiming today is a good idea. We NEED a scum lynch today. And everyone claiming would make that much easier. | ||
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However, I am still convinced that claiming could help the town. In two of my last three games, we decided to mass claim toward the end of the game. Of course it helps the scum to decide how to use their actions, but it also helps the town to find the scum. I will think about this more. And I don't think it is something that we should ignore. | ||
YourHarry
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On August 17 2012 08:09 Golbat wrote: If one player comes up town, that never makes another player scum 100%. Unless you have some inside info, you just pulled this thought out of your ass. Either way, Archrun is on my radar now because townies should never be thinking like that. My vote stands on thrawn, but Archrun is gonna have some 'splaining to do. He seems to be sheeping my read on Archrun. He ends up voting for Archrun, but scum Golbat could be setting up for Archrun lynch the following day based on my read. If Archrun flips town - he could simply blame me for it. I see scum motivations to prepare lynches in Thrawn, then Archrun, then me. On August 18 2012 15:32 Golbat wrote: I agree i'm lurking, but I feel that I have at least contributed well for my sparse filter. I made my case on thrawn, and cast my vote. When I see something worth discussing I mention it. I may not be living in the thread as hard as you, harry or thrawn, but at least I've contributed. What do you suggest I do to be less "lurky"? Make a shit case on someone in a misguided attempt to look active? Last game it got me lynched and cost town a vigi shot. I'll go over the thread again and see if anything catches my eye, but I don't really see a case I can make that hasn't already been made ATM. At the very least i'll prod some people in my next couple posts. This is clearly an excuse and false. There are plenty of things to discuss at the moment, and continues to lurk today. He did not make a single night post after Thrawn flipped town. And as it has been pointed out, he places his vote on Thrawn early in the day, then decides to lurk throughout. Day 2's lynch was going to be clearly me or Thrawn, so I can interpret Golbat's being absent as scum not caring between Thrawn or my lynch. On August 18 2012 16:57 Golbat wrote: I'd like to point out that if thrawn does not flip red, that does not make yourharry equally not red. Due to plurality lynch, my vote can stay where it is without fear of a no-lynch, but I will shed no tears if the rest of the town thinks that harry is scummier. A scum kill is a scum kill after all. The bolded part, at first, read somewhat town to me. Scum Golbat would have known that Thrawn would flip blue, so he is OK with giving me the town read following his mislynch. But maybe it would have been too inconsistent for Golbat to continue attacking me despite Thrawn flipping scum, especially since he initially sheeped the case that was based on Thrawn/Harry/Obvious association scum tells. On August 19 2012 07:30 Golbat wrote: You could probably assume that I didn't pay close attention to the first 24hours of the game. Because I didn't. I had forgotten I even signed up until like halfway through Day1. Why are YOU trying to make it sound like I have no clue what's going on at all? I know exactly what to make of that. I am not sure what he is trying to say here. "I know exactly what to make of that." Golbat, what do you mean by this? One thing I noticed is that while he sheep GK and Darth's case on me and Thrawn being scum, he never really mentions Obvious. These cases clearly outlines evidence for Thrawn/me/Ochrow being scums together by association and defending each other, he simply ignores Obvious. If there was one person beside me and Thrawn that had a chance of getting lynched, it was Obvious. It is suspicious to me what reasons town Golbat had to selectively not suspect Obvious. Upon re-examination of Golbat's filter, while I don't see clear scum slips, I find scum motivations in many of his actions. In particular, what stands out is Golbat conveniently leaving out Obvious from his suspicion list without apparent reason, even though he said I was suspicious for defending Thrawn (who Golbat strongly believed to be scum). While I am not quite sure about my read at this point, he does generally seem scummy. I would like Golbat to respond to these points above. And to pressure him: ##Vote Golbat | ||
YourHarry
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Currently we are on Day 3. We have 5 town players and 3 scum players. There has been only one blue roles. I believe there are more blue roles, e.g. detective, medic, roleblocker, or jailer. Maybe even two. Scums will probably go after detective/medic type blue roles, rather than mason buddies. Mason buddies don't have special powers at night, but they are confirmed town. Their claiming would be super helpful for town to narrow the pool to choose the scum from. But this information at this point in time will not be that useful for scums, since scums want to go after other power roles. True, this will also allow the scums to narrow the pool to choose other power roles from - but I believe at this point, it is a risk we need to take. Possible issue: how do we know to believe the mason brother claim? I guess we need to do the analysis. It really depends on which two players claim masons. I will examine the past days' actions of the two players who claim mason brothers to see if they are consistent with their alignments. But getting this over with will help my scum hunting ability, as I am having creative thoughts again... | ||
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On August 21 2012 17:59 goodkarma wrote: -First, YourHarry is fond of withholding information from us. YourHarry starts the game by making a weak WIFOM case on me, claiming if I'm not a mason I'm scum. He withholds his read on me for a long time until pressured to provide it, and while here maybe you could argue he had some justification, this is a recurring theme. Over and over again he's done this. With this "mason case," with vote swapping history, with providing reads on certain people (most recently, Golbat). This behavior is clearly anti-town. Obviously withholding information would be advantageous for scum as it could make it harder for others to get a good read on him. Could a townie also do this? Maybe, but this is just the tip of the iceberg. GK says that I am fond of withholding information. To restate GK's case in a more organized manner, it's this: GK admits that Harry may have had "maybe" acceptable reasoning for suspecting GK, but Harry has been withholding information, continuing to change his reads and swapping his votes through-out the game. This behavior is anti-town. And withholding information is advantageous for scums. (This is not a misrepresentation of GK's case. I wanted to organize the contents of his post, so it's easier to analyze) You may disagree with the reasoning for changing my reads, but not with the frequency with which I changed my reads. As I incorporate more information and re-analyze previous posts, I AM GOING to change reads, and therefore my votes. I have been wrong in my reads this game, but being wrong does not mean I am scum. To be fair, GK does say that I am scummy because I base many of my cases on WIFOM. So if you think that my reasoning for my reads generally have been poor, wait a minute as I will address that soon. But GK's particular point above regarding my changing of reads, has no substance. Do scums change their reads and swap their votes more often than town? If you think so, I would argue that such belief is a common mis-perception. Scums want to survive. They want to avoid attention. They don't have to change their reads, if they think such change will buy much suspicion. At best, it is WIFOM. People's reads change. And mine changed frequently (Also see my previous games, which links have been provided for. I am not saying that my changing my reads means I am town, just because I have done so in the past. But it should be taken as a proof that changing reads does not mean that Harry is scum). You can argue that maybe I am trying to match my town meta as scum. But as town, I may inadvertently match my town meta from previous games. So aside from paranoia, this cannot be used to say I am scum for trying to match my previous town meta. GK's second point: withholding information is advantageous for scums. This is wrong. Some information should be revealed, but some should not be. For example, a detective's investigation on a confirmed town or a confirmed scum would be advantageous for town if detective can somehow share such information without claiming. This is because scums already know who towns and scums are, so no additional is gained from scums' perspectives. But townies can use such information to limit and focus on which players to lynch. But should a mason, in the beginning of the day, claim mason and reveal identity of his mason brother? Some information help town more than scums. Let's suppose that I was right about Solar and GK being mason brothers. Would it have been advantageous for town for me to reveal this information? No. The information I thought I had was going to benefit the scums more than the town. And because of that, I decided to not share the information I thought I had despite being repeatedly being accused for not sharing it. My stubbornness was based on my thinking that I was correct in knowing the mason alignment. It should be noted that it was only after it became apparent that Solar and GK were not mason brothers, that I decided to reveal this information, since this information was no longer useful to scums. Related case against me previously brought up: it has been talked about whether scum Harry would have had an easier time identifying mason alignment than town Harry. It is true that scums have more information, and in general I would agree that scum Harry would have had an easier time. However, the style and the choice of words used by GK in his defense of Solar resulted in town Harry to deduce mason alignment. The explanation for this has been described a couple of times, but I can try to explain myself more clearly upon request. And maybe the question should be asked: what is scum Harry's motivation behind instantly dismissing case against Solar in such an awkward and suspicious manner? Even if scum Harry wanted to defend scum Solar, would scum Harry have done it in such a ridiculous fashion? No. However, such action does make sense if town Harry belief that GK and Solar are mason buddies. I think whether I am town or scum, it is reasonable to be aware that such sudden change in suspicion would have looked scummy. Again, if you agree that scums want to avoid suspicion more than townies, then Harry's decision to express his read on Solar because Harry really thought Solar was town would make sense. Weak deduction? Maybe. Reading too much into the wording and the style in which GK defended Solar? Maybe. Scum motivation? No. This is just the tip, GK says. But I feel that I have defended against this tip of the iceberg. If there is any remaining suspicion, please address it. My change in voting pattern was based on my changing reads as I continued my analysis. And even GK admits some of them have acceptable reasoning behind them. And definitely, my decision to withhold the mason alignment information was pro-town. On August 21 2012 17:59 goodkarma wrote: -YourHarry is a fan of last-minute vote swapping. He has now twice last minute switched his vote to secure the mislynch of the top candidate. This behavior simply can't be ignored anymore. There is clear scum motivation here. -The use of WIFOM first, actual use of reasoning when pressured later. He already did that today with Golbat. He started today with soft defending him, and then decides he will actually "read his filter." I'll say that again: only after defending Golbat with WIFOM does he decide it's a good idea to read his filter. Then, finally, he decides to actually present a case which is in fact against Golbat. In other words, he's demonstrated a lack of interest in actually contributing meaningfully to scumhunting. -On top of this, today he has focused a large degree of effort on getting people to role claim. If my theory on scum's motive for the night kills is to be believed, YourHarry is trying to draw important town roles out of hiding as easy scum targets. There's loads of scum motivation to be seen behind YourHarry's actions, and there are several cases that have already been made against him. Yet somehow he seems to have avoided getting lynched. My biggest issue with lynching him, and why he hasn't been higher on my "scum reads," has been that his play is consistently bad, and it would be easy to mislynch a town YourHarry. But if you look at his actions, they fit a scum agenda. Fan of last minute vote swapping. Definitely guilty of that. On day 1: 1) I had my vote on Shady. Was a choice between Thrawn and Shady. 2) I changed my vote to Archrun, who I felt confident about turning scum. 3) It was apparent that Archrun lynch was not going to happen. So I changed my vote to Shady, who I preferred over Thrawn. Swapped my votes, I did. BUT: What is scum motivation here?? Did Shady not flip town? Did Archrun not flip town? Did Thrawn not flip town? If Thrawn flipped scum, I may have to come up with some defense outlining why I thought Thrawn was town over Shady or why I thought Archrun was scum. BTW, I did this already, especially at one point when I was convinced Thrawn was scum. But what scum motivations even exist for scum Harry to choose town Archurn lynch over town Thrawn lynch? Or town Shady lynch over town Thrawn lynch? I would argue that above course of events, if anything, indicates that I am NOT scum. If scum was trying to save his scum partner, such changing vote could be scum motivated? Oh wait, I must have forgotten about the possibility that scum Harry just felt like goofing around for the heck of it. I cannot even begin to understand why my switching my votes can be interpreted as scum motivated. My reads change. I explained my reasons. If you disagree with my reasons, argue why you reasons sucked, but don't say that my change of vote was scum motivated. My WIFOM first, logical reasons later What can I say. When I read posts... when I see night kills... I try to analyze. And GK, you will say again and again and again my analysis is WIFOM. But technically, everything is. Scums tend to lurk. WIFOM, some townies lurk too! And scums can try not to lurk. Scums tend to be wishy washy. WIFOM! Some townies are unsure of their reads so they are wishy washy. Some scums will outline focused case and show commitment. Scums tend to want to avoid suspicion? They tend to have bad logic? All WIFOM!! But these are basically how we are taught to scum hunt. To be fair, I guess the key phrase is "tend to". Scums do tend to lurk overall, Scums do tend to be wishy washy, sheep easy cases and often have bad logic. But for these very same reasons, my analysis is no more WIFOM than the other cases you have presented before. Will scum Thrawn have killed Archurn? Possibly, but scums tend not to target the easy lynch - especially if such lynch will make the scum suspicious. Would scum Golbat decide to NK Jhyut? Maybe, but scums again tend to spare townies who have high chance of getting mislynched. [b]My attempt to role hunt/b] First, I agree with Darth's retraction for asking people to role claim. Blues should claim upon their discretion. I guess it was my mistake in thinking that role claims could help the town more than it could scum. Since we have to get today lynch correct, gathering as much information as possible could help us reduce the pool from which we need to draw the scum from. But I blue roles have more information than vanilla, so it should be up to their discretion. I acknowledge my mistake here. In regards to Stutter's claim that I was trying to role hunt throughout the whole game. Stutter, if you think my line of thinking that Gk and Solar are masons and making that public only after we found out that my theory was wrong... I explain this above. You cannot argue that there is scum motivation. Or if you are thinking about Thrawn's case... do you think it was Harry's scum agenda was to role hunt and suspect the blue breadcrumb in Thrawn and kill him? Yes, it makes perfect sense. I may have wondered about different roles, but there is no scum motivation here. | ||
YourHarry
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Or if you are thinking about Thrawn's case... do you think it was Harry's scum agenda was to role hunt and suspect the blue breadcrumb in Thrawn and not kill him? Yes, it makes perfect sense. I may have wondered about different roles, but there is no scum motivation here. | ||
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On August 15 2012 12:17 goodkarma wrote: @Solarsail: Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people. The last thing I want is for us to waste an entire day getting a bad townie lynched. Yes, I brought this up again. But I ask you guys for the last time to re-examine this: 1. GK and Solar do not have any prior history of playing mafia. 2. GK does NOT provide any reasons for thinking that Solar is a town. 3. GK style and choice of words indicates that GK, for some reason, is sure about something he should have very little information about. If you disagree with me, that's fine. Consider it a null tell. But there is more: Poor logic, beyond the reasonable standard, to make a case against me The cases he outlined against me are logically poor. Townies can be poor in their logic, but the extent with which he strongly pushes his case against me tells me that he is forcing this case. In particular, the lack of the basis for thinking that my vote swapping is scum motivated is unjustifiable in even with my active imagination. Also, he fails (or chooses not to) examine what scum motivations I could have had by swapping of my votes from Shady to Archeron, or from Archeron to Shady on Day 1... or from Thrawn to Jhyut on Day 2. But this would make sense if discussion of such consideration would irreversibly weaken his case against me. Thus, GK's case against me seems scum motivated. GK's focus to maintain his meta, and avoids making the commitment to make a difference in town lynch result He maintains that he should vote for whoever the townie believes is most likely scum. He says that in Day 1 and tries really hard to not deviate from this meta. On Day 2, he initially votes for Thrawn and then changes his reads outlines that he prefers 1) Ochrow/Obvious 2) YourHarry 3) Thrawn. Then he votes for Obvious. Near the deadline, it is apparent that Obvious is NOT going to be lynched. And this is after GK says he is "satisfied" with Thrawn's defense and participation. Town GK upon realizing that Obvious is not going to be lynched, and should have pushed for his second scum read in YourHarry. But even when it seems apparent that Thrawn is going to be lynched, he justifies not moving his vote from Obvious to YourHarry - with this: On August 20 2012 08:57 goodkarma wrote: Of my three scum suspects, I feel Thrawn is the worst lynch choice as his claim is semi-confirmable. Apparently many of you don't think that. Since one of the three is almost guaranteed to be lynched right now, I will stand by my current vote for the time being. Obviously, a townie should strive complete the action that he thinks would be best for town. Solely going after his said top scum candidate when it is clear that he is not going to be lynched is not town. If all townies independently voted for whoever he thought was most scummy, then scums's tendency to vote with their scum team will GREATLY DISADVANTAGEOUS for town. Thus, he seems scummy for trying hard to not break his Day 1 meta, despite his action being anti town. In addition, such action seems scum motivated to avoid any suspicion for being directly responsible for Thrawn's lynch. To be accurate, GK does say that Thrawn mislynch is partially his fault. But his lack of commitment in trying to make a difference in the result of the scum hunting seems scum motivated. And GK also says that Thrawn lynch is "OK" because he is probably scum. But I cannot accept this as an excuse to not follow through with what he should have deemed to be the best course of action for town. His main reason for switching his suspicion The only reason he switched his vote is what? Because I brought up the possibility of mass claiming. Seriously?? First, in my experience, claiming at LYLO or MYLO is a common pro-town strategy. I guess there could be some exceptions to this and I could be wrong... But to take this as the driving reason for his switch - because I brought up the possibility of mass claiming (and mass claiming after voting for no lynch tomorrow) - is just unimaginable. Again, this is consistent GK's scum agenda to force a case against me by brute force. ##Unvote ##Vote GK | ||
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Z-boson, I am just trying to confuse town? To match my meta? That's your ONLY reasoning why you think I am scum. If you do not understand my case, point out which of my posts or actions do not make sense. I will gladly explain them for you. But to cite such weak reason to vote me at this stage of the game, I can only think that your action is based on paranoia or scum motivated. FOS Z-boson | ||
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Stutter wrote: Again he posts another case that relys on what should be unknown information for the case to hold any water. This isn't scumhunting. This is posting a bunch of What Ifs to make it look like it's useful. So what happens to this case now that Thrawn has flipped Vig. It's completely worthless, just another post of YH looking active without contributing. Let me ask the town something. What does town Harry contribute with this post unless he's guessed correctly? Is it really a stretch to assume that Harry knew Thrawn would flip town so he could get out of contributing once again? Likewise with the previous post, he implied that if Thrawn is town Archrun must be scum. If he doesn't know that Thrawn is town neither of these plans make any sense. Once or twice I can overlook and just say that even trying to explain it with WIFOM is pointless but between everything I've went over so far I'd consider this more icing on the cake. Indeed, scum hunting by association is risky and it turned out that after Thrawn flipped town, my analysis became useless. But if we were to accept your reasoning, you should also find GK and Darth suspicious for their scum hunting by association. Also, the similar manner in which Ochrow and Thrawn have been posting their reads had been mentioned several times by multiple players, which became the reason for Ochrow being one of the top suspect along with Thrawn. And these analyses also lost their usefulness upon Thrawn flipping town. But these things happen. Especially with few players left, once you begin to feel confident about a player's scum read, it is natural to think about what scums by association. In regards to your other cases, I think I sufficiently explained myself in my response against GK's case. Also, but for the same reason you found me suspicious for making analysis that I knew was going to turn out useless, you didn't find GK suspicious? Darth? | ||
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Please let me know what you think. I also would like to know what Obvious currently thinks about GK being scum. I don't think I will have much time to post tomorrow. But I will try to log in. | ||
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
[b]##Vote Solarsail[/b[ | ||
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
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YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
I was wrong so many times, in regards to blue role alignments. T.T And sorry z-boson. I should have showed up earlier near D3 deadline. Like you said, (though not really sure), it could have made a difference | ||
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
@GK I thought my defending Golbat would be along the lines of my meta. It's WIFOM, but I thought scum Golbat would have hard time making the Jhyut night kill. Disagree? Also I defended Thrawn using the exactly the same logic. Do you remember? Thrawn flipped town, so I thought my defense of Golbat was almost called for. As for FOSing Z-boson, his accusation of me playing the sole meta game and thus Jhyut NK means I am scum... I thought that was a FOS worthy post indeed. And remember the Thrawn/Ochrow scum suspects that started because they agreed and defended each other. They turned out to be towns together. Taken together, I am not sure if defending a player or busing a player could be used as associative tells. For example, me refusing to get on the Solar wagon when the lynch candidates seemed to be me or Solar. The interpretation has been made that this is because Solar is my scum team, therefore I had to start an original case against GK. This is what I hoped people would think. So, I think it's WIFOM. If not, I could have made soft-defended or awkwardly FOS'ed town players to incriminate them. At least, this is what I think. | ||
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
IIRC, we needed one additional vote to execute Archrun lynch - along with Thrawn's vote. So that seemed possible. | ||
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
To me everything is WIFOM. I could try to post in a style that would be more acceptable and in line with how other people on this forum think, but I would be lying to myself when I make cases. Oh and I almost forgot. You did an excellent job, GK. It was super impressive. | ||
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Oh! OK. That makes sense! My misunderstanding of the word was, sort of, the culprit in my latest posts. But if this is the case, would you say that: the inference that Golbat is likely town based on Jhyut because Golbat would have had harder time lynching Jhyut is WIFOM? How about: conclusion that Thrawn is likely town because scum Thrawn would not have liked to NK Archrun, which would have made Thrawn look bad? | ||
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Initial defense followed by later accusation vs. initial accusation followed by later defense. There is a difference. I guess this is a valid point, under my new understanding of Wine That May Be Harder to Poison. But I don't think it should have been too significant of a tell - otherwise, I could simply start out defending a townie then accuse the townie, before my scum flip to incriminate the player. GK wrote: You temporarily voted Archrun, but your final vote was on Shady day one. You can vote switch all you want, and I will be accordingly suspicious if you don't justify why. But who you voted at the end of the day is especially important. That you switched onto Shady last-minute felt scum-motivated, but really why do I need to repeat myself here? I have a filter that discusses the same content in it... From the perspective of a townie who wants to make a difference in the outcome of the lynching, the final voting may not always reflect the most scummy reads. A townie could have thought that Shady was the second most townie person after Thrawn, in which case his final voting action of choosing Shady over Thrawn - after attempting to push Archrun wagon which at one point seemed possible - is understandable. By the same token, the final voting status is sometimes circumstantial. I think the circumstances that accompanied the change in the voting is more substantial than the final vote. For example, if Archrun lynch absolutely seemed impossible, and I was simply making a show before voting Shady, then it would be scummier. Of course, from my perspective, I wanted this to be my town tell. That if Archrun and Shady both flipped town, I wanted people to think I am likely town - by Wine That May Be Harder to Poison reasoning. Also, I wanted people to suspect Thrawn - if I ever flipped scum before Thrawn - for my insisting Shady lynch of Thrawn. So in that sense, I was scummy. But I think I still have hard time understanding your reasoning of my scum motivation. Blazinghand, thoughts? | ||
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On August 27 2012 15:52 Blazinghand wrote: Basically, the Jhyut NK was a bad move, and here's why: No matter who you are, as scum you benefit from Jhyut being alive. If you're Golbat, sure, you benefit, but if you're YourHarry, you also benefit from him being alive because he's an easy mislynch target. Mislynches help scum regardless. The Jhyut NK is neither WIFOM nor useful in any sense: it just doesn't say anything. Jhyut was a threat to nobody and was useful alive to scum regardless of who they were. All it says is scum made a bad judgement on their NK. Now, regarding the Archrun NK, given that there are 2 NKs and a claimed Vigi, who was pressuring his NK target the day before, you should accept the Vigi's claim on its face. If the Vigi is fakeclaiming, the real vigi can just counterclaim, then you can lynch both of them, and boom: you've caught one scum. a one-for-one lynch trade is fine. Given that the vigi didn't counter claim, Thrawn was 100% confirmed not Mafia. He might have possibly been the SK, but you'd find that out if there was another 2-kill night later. The D2 lynch should not have happened and there's no reasonable justification for it. Ya I admit Jhyut was a bad lynch (and I am directly responsible for it ![]() I see. I guess I agree that mislynches help scum regardless. Definitely Jhyut being alive would have helped me AND Golbat immensely. But wouldn't it have helped other players less? Like those that were receiving less attention, e.g. Darth? As for Thrawn: being scum made it easy for me to tell that Thrawn was vigilante. Which is the reason for my initial defense. So indeed it may have been a mistake to suddenly accuse him - to get along with other players in the game. | ||
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
I still don't understand it. It's magic. | ||
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