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On August 11 2012 02:14 Custos Luna wrote:Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 01:01 sciberbia wrote:
In conclusion, I think there is a reasonably good chance marv was killed because scum thought he was the watcher.
This is possible. However, I believe that the scum team is trying to incriminate me. They want to set me up for a lynch. They are using the fact that marvel placed a vote on me and they want town to think that marvel was killed because of it. If you notice in Hiro's last post (before day post), he posts claiming I'm scum: Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 00:04 HiroPro wrote:
I have a RL issue to take care of, so this will be my last post.
I don't have the time to go through filters again but I'll summarize my thoughts.
sciberbia is town. His case on Forumite had a lot of effort and he's been consistently townie throughout this game.
Mordanis is probably town. His early case on ShiaoPi was not good at all and his posting style annoys me but I feel that he's legitametly sharing his thoughts and honestly I have a hard time believing that any scum team would let Mordanis post that ShiaoPi case.
Luna is scum. No experienced player would make a post like the one he just did as town. He makes a big assumption in calling prplhz scum and then uses that to justify everything else. This is especially strange since all of yesterday he was saying prplhz's alignment is unclear.
Shiao and Keirathi should be looked at very closely. Shiao pushed Mordanis for reasons that had nothing to do with him being scum and he seems very nervous and reluctant to call people scum (look at his night post on the Forumite voters). Keirathi is not sharing his ideas really at all. Marv is not playing the way that I'm used to seeing him as town, dunno about him. He and his scumbuddies have created a situation in which they can try to get me killed.
Sweet WIFOM.
I'll tell you what, I'll play along too. CL is scum and engineered the kill to make it look like people were out to get him so he'd have a couple of easy mislynches. Or perhaps CL knew that he'd be called out for WIFOM so he made himself seem paranoid in a good paranoid-townie way, and he's trying to buy town cred. Or perhaps WIFOM isn't a good way to play.
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To clarify, what I was referring to as WIFOM wasn't your statement of "Hey don't kill me based on marv being killed", it was "Yo dawgs, don't kill me because marv was killed, lynch these other guys who set me up.". I agree that it isn't good to read into a NK too much, because you get into really bad WIFOM territory. I just think it doesn't make any sense to be against reading into the NK to lynch you but for reading into the NK to lynch other people.
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That's where you're getting into WIFOM though. To say scum killed for one reason and therefore we should act in your prescribed way is absurd. Let's go back to that scene from Princess Bride- You say you know what the scum are trying to accomplish with their kill. But they could have known that a wily veteran would catch on to their plan, and put you on the wrong track by killing "the wrong person". But you could have seen through their attempt to put you on the wrong track, and voted for someone else. But they could have known that you'd see through their ruse, and the cycle repeats.
In short, it makes a lot of sense to me to say "Don't lynch me because in one situation I'd be trying to get rid of marv because he voted for me", but it makes none to then say "now lynch these other dudes because in one situation they're trying to set me up". By calling out 3 players and calling them a scumteam and then saying that the scumteam is trying to screw you over with their KP you are arguing for lynching all 3 of the players you called out. You can't argue (well) that the best course of action is to lynch 3 people in a row based on a logical jump (that prplhz is scum) plus connection play based on that leap.
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Actually, in my mind, the scummiest thing in the entire game so far has been your argument to lynch 3 players in a row based on the assumption that one of the players is scum, and then connection-based logic on Hiro.
##Vote Custos Luna
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On August 11 2012 08:07 DoYouHas wrote:
CL, I don't like that you have brought out a connection case this early in the game. My experiences with connection cases is that they are rarely accurate when presented on day3 and you posted this at the end of N1. I also don't like your WIFOM. You, risk, and scib have all posted possible reasons marv was hit, and they are all equally possible. Speculating on night hits is pointless without corroborating evidence.
However, I do agree some of your points and who you are suspicious of.
The fact that it took vote switching instead of a clear majority to lynch Forumite increases the chance that prplhz is scum and that his scumbuddies manipulated the vote. That would make Hiro, Shiao, and Mord the suspicious parties day1. This is convienent as those are the people I have been most suspicious of after prplhz already.
I'm going to withold my vote for now. I need to do some more filter digging and put together an actual case before I commit to pushing someone.
CL also changed his vote to Forumite.
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On August 09 2012 23:27 Custos Luna wrote:
EBWOP: DYH, looking back, that does appear to be fairly accurate. I had thought more people unvoted off prplhz and onto Forumite.
If it is necessary, I will switch my vote from Mord to Forumite to avoid the double lynch depending on what is said in the next half hour. However, Mord, you need to decide. Forumite or prplhz. Make your choice. Do so before I am required to or the wrath of the moon will fall upon you.
EBWOP: I think this makes it clear that CL wouldn't have voted for prplhz, so by DYH's logic CL should also be under scrutiny.
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You still would have chosen Foru in any case except for me voting for prplhz. DYH was saying that people changing their vote to Foru were suspicious. Your first choice and actual action was a vote for Foru. Ergo by DYH's logic, you should have been on the list of suspicion. Your name was not featured, and it should have been.
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Hey CL, if you're so certain you've found the scum-team, why haven't you voted?
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Waiting to see which bandwagon forms and jump in at around 3rd or 4th place? Why would you wait? Do you think that a 2 hour day cycle would benefit town? All waiting for the inevitable does is take away time from discussion, and make you look more scummy. If you're truly as transparent as you claim to be, you should be voting for your strongest of your 3 reads. Delaying only gives you the oppurtunity to jump on whatever bandwagon you please and takes time away. Which of prplhz, me, and Hiro are you most convinced is scum? Since you're pretty into commitment and transparency, I'm sure you'll be glad to tell us all.
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DYH:
Your first post indicating that the people who switched their votes were suspicious was based on prplhz being scum. Your accusation of CL assumes that prplhz is town. So how are you leaning right now?
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CL: Why would you vote Hiro? Your case on him is based on prplhz being scum, so shouldn't you try to go for prplhz first, and if he does flip the way you expect him to go after Hiro at that point? Gahh you're not making sense...
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On August 11 2012 19:29 risk.nuke wrote:
DoYouHas pulling out some big guns.
I like that.
##unvote: prplhz
##vote: Custos Luna
Mind sharing your opinions?
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Could someone explain to me why prplhz is so scummy? I've looked through Custodis filter and seen a lot less scumminess than I'd have hoped for. But I don't see to much at all from prplhz. His lurkiness except for when he's fighting for his life doesn't seem all that scummy to me because that was how I played in my last game. D1+D3 I was pretty active, but I spent most of my free time D2 playing DeusEx. The days I was under heavy suspicion: D1+D3. I'm not saying this makes prplhz town, I just think that lynching based on someone's only activity being defensive isn't such a great idea.
Also, somehow Shiao has somehow escaped being labeled a lurker despite not having posted at all this cycle.
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As I said earlier, I don't really trust the timing of his activity to be a strong indicator of alignment. So at that point, I see Shiao, Risk, prplhz, and Hiro with basically the same lack of activity, and a growing bandwagon on prpl.
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Frankly I don't know. On the one hand you have CL who made a large mistake in sheeping me, but it isn't alignment-indicative. It's pretty shitty play regardless. On the other hand, you have prpl who has been inactive save for defense. Really, at this point they both seem like bad cases. I really need to read through for a while before I can return with my thoughts. I will say however that all things being equal I would favor the lurker-lynch on the grounds that it might light a fire under the remaining lurkers' asses and get them posting.
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What it comes down to is whether to lynch CL for his mistakes. IMO "scumslips" are useful tools to enhance your scumhunting, not auto-lynch heuristics. The idea is that scum are more likely than town to "slip", so you look at players who "slip" to confirm their scumminess or store the information away for later. CL has in my mind 2 slips/mistakes. His "IFoundAllTheScumteam" post and his sheeping my vote. While I was at work, during the slower times I was trying to figure out whether CL's play was scummy or rusty. I couldn't decide. After reading through his filter, I have come to believe that he is not scum. CL is obviously a bit rusty, and so if he were scum I'd expect to be able to find lots of little scum-tells along with the major mistakes. I just didn't find any, and not for lack of effort. In short, it simply doesn't make any sense to me to assume that someone is good enough to have a filter basically free from little scum-tells but bad enough to make massive mistakes unless there isn't anything for that player to hide.
It would be completely worthless to switch my vote to anyone other than prpl at this point, but I still feel that I need to comment on him. I feel it is highly likely at least one of the scum are lurking pretty hard, simply because the setup strongly encourages it. 3 mislynches plus 3 night kills yields victory to the scum. While lurkers by their nature don't really contribute, prpl really hasn't done anything at all the entire game. He voted for his counter-wagon, defended himself, and added more to the counterwagon. Take those away and he has zero content. He obviously cares at least a little to save his own ass but doesn't seem to give a shit about finding scum or even contributing to discussion in any way. I do find that scummy.
## Unvote
## Vote prplhz
Luna diem integram novumque tibi donaverit. Aut nox donaverit. Teneas gratior et leta gobbae.
The moon has given you a new and fresh day. Or she has given you a night.You may choose whichever pleases you more and you must kill scum.
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Such a weird cycle... At least now we have a scum flipped so there should be some new analysis possible, but the lack of activity sort of reduces the amount of analysis. Ah well, see you all in the morning ^^
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Shiao: You're blatantly misrepresenting facts. You are lying. Let me start with the most blatant of all. You said that I based my vote on and referenced DYH's case on CL. Pure Bullshit. He hadn't posted his case yet. Let's look at timestamps shall we? + Show Spoiler +On August 11 2012 08:09 Mordanis wrote:
Actually, in my mind, the scummiest thing in the entire game so far has been your argument to lynch 3 players in a row based on the assumption that one of the players is scum, and then connection-based logic on Hiro.
##Vote Custos Luna On August 11 2012 11:31 DoYouHas wrote:Thank you thank you thank you Mordanis. Your point about me not including CL was absolutley right, and I was pondering my answer in the shower when I had a bit of a revelation. CL's voteswitch was unique from the others in a very specific way. He let you pick for him Mord. Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 23:27 Custos Luna wrote:
If it is necessary, I will switch my vote from Mord to Forumite to avoid the double lynch depending on what is said in the next half hour. However, Mord, you need to decide. Forumite or prplhz. Make your choice. Do so before I am required to or the wrath of the moon will fall upon you. Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 23:36 Custos Luna wrote:
Trying to decide the best course of action. You're right, I want to get my vote on a real candidate. Scenarios running through my head:
-I vote Forumite: Mord can force the double lynch. If both Forumite and prplhz are town, this puts us at 6v3 for tomorrow, something I'd really like to avoid.
-I wait for Mord to vote for a real candidate: causes him to choose and I can avoid the double lynch.
If one of prpl and Forumite are scum, the double lynch benefits us. However, I'm still not entirely convinced and I'm trying to figure out how to give us the best chance into this lynch. He implies multiple times that voting Forumite is what he wants to do, so why not actually do it? His reason is that he fears that Mord will force the double lynch if he votes first. But is this a rational fear? no. If Mord is town then he would realize that everyone does not want a double lynch day1 and would not cause one. He probably would have sat on marv and been content that CL took the decision out of his hands. If Mord is scum then he would realize that the town is going to lynch him day2 if he forces a last minute double lynch and that a 2 for 1 trade isn't bad for town day1. Neither alignment would have forced that double lynch in Mord's position. So why would CL put Mord (someone he is supposed to believe is scum, drastically increasing the chance of a mislynch) firmly in the driver's seat of yesterday's lynch? I can think of only one answer: CL knew that either choice would end in a townie flip and did not want to be tied to the blame for it. The language he uses leading up to the lynch only strengthens my belief that this is the case. + Show Spoiler +On August 09 2012 23:27 Custos Luna wrote:
EBWOP: DYH, looking back, that does appear to be fairly accurate. I had thought more people unvoted off prplhz and onto Forumite.
If it is necessary, I will switch my vote from Mord to Forumite to avoid the double lynch depending on what is said in the next half hour. However, Mord, you need to decide. Forumite or prplhz. Make your choice. Do so before I am required to or the wrath of the moon will fall upon you. Firm stance on wanting to switch to Forum, immediately hands reins over to Mord to choose Forum or prplhz. On August 09 2012 23:36 Custos Luna wrote:
If one of prpl and Forumite are scum, the double lynch benefits us. However, I'm still not entirely convinced and I'm trying to figure out how to give us the best chance into this lynch. Begins to distance himself from a Forumite lynch and even entertains double lynching. On August 09 2012 23:54 Custos Luna wrote:Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 23:49 Keirathi wrote:
Welp, I guess that's that. I'm going back to bed.
Custos, don't pull any funny business. I would never! Still unsure on Forumite. But I'm less sure on prpl, and I want to pad some security against a last minute swap/double lynch. Therefore: ##unvote Mordanis
##vote ForumiteThe moon is shocked that Mord has actually committed to something. This is a very important post tone-wise. It starts with a mischievous tone with the bantering line of "I would never!". This bantering statement tells me that CL just relaxed a bit, or even is feeling a bit victorious. This is immediately is followed by an even bigger distancing statement, "Still unsure on Forumite. But I'm less sure on prpl". Then his 'moon' closing is even a bit off of the normal. Up until this point the moon comments by CL have been either normal signoffs or threats. This one is different, it reads to me like a self satisfied dig at Mord, which seems out of place until I fit it to my theory.
It goes further though. He says that there is no reason to be confused about the bandwagon switching to prpl. This is the reason that D2 seemed so weird to me. prpl wasn't a candidate for the lynch so much as the one candidate was sort of exonerated, and he seemed like the backup lynch. Shiao is expecting me to believe someone based purely on their meta-reads. I apologize if I don't have the brain of a sheep. If you ignore prpl's meta, it becomes a lurker lynch. Why everyone was piling on one of the lurkers instead of the several others is confusing.
Finally you literally cut the bits of my quote that explain your concerns about my switch. Here is what you snipped: + Show Spoiler +On August 12 2012 17:15 Mordanis wrote:
.......
CL is obviously a bit rusty, and so if he were scum I'd expect to be able to find lots of little scum-tells along with the major mistakes. I just didn't find any, and not for lack of effort. In short, it simply doesn't make any sense to me to assume that someone is good enough to have a filter basically free from little scum-tells but bad enough to make massive mistakes unless there isn't anything for that player to hide.
It would be completely worthless to switch my vote to anyone other than prpl at this point, but I still feel that I need to comment on him. I feel it is highly likely at least one of the scum are lurking pretty hard, simply because the setup strongly encourages it. 3 mislynches plus 3 night kills yields victory to the scum. While lurkers by their nature don't really contribute, prpl really hasn't done anything at all the entire game. He voted for his counter-wagon, defended himself, and added more to the counterwagon. Take those away and he has zero content. He obviously cares at least a little to save his own ass but doesn't seem to give a shit about finding scum or even contributing to discussion in any way. I do find that scummy.
## Unvote
## Vote prplhz
Luna diem integram novumque tibi donaverit. Aut nox donaverit. Teneas gratior et leta gobbae.
The moon has given you a new and fresh day. Or she has given you a night.You may choose whichever pleases you more and you must kill scum.
Shiao: you better have a really fucking good reason for lying and manipulating what I wrote to make your case against me stronger.
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Sweet activity dudes!
Okey Dokey, I had some time to think about SP's post. First off, I think it is important to recognize that SP manipulated, bordering on barefaced lying, my posts to make his case seem stronger. There is zero possible explanation for good townies to make that case. + Show Spoiler [Wordy Logic] +If SP had been a DT and found scum last night, making a case like his would make sense. Unfortunately, the setup allows only 1 power role besides medic, so SP cannot be a DT, or either of the other power roles. It is therefore clear that SP made a really bad post. At least as bad as CL's mistakes. The problem is, I can't accept that heuristic (big mistakes without small mistakes = town) for defense anymore. Clever scum who were playing well could make one big mistake to gain a town read as long as their filter was clean of scum-tells. This means that scum would be playing well (instead of really well and simultaneously really bad), so that heuristic can't be used for defense for quite a while. It can however still be used for hunting scum. If there is a mistake worth investigation, and the player in question has a filter full of minor "slips", they've been playing pretty bad scum.
Also, I get the feeling from this post that it is a contrivance. The contradictions to his play (which Sloosh pointed out) within the post plus all of the innacuracies make it seem as though he either had some sort of gut read and didn't really bother to fact check fact check at all, or he wrote something he didn't believe to advance some purpose. As I've said earlier, I really don't trust people who plan.
Another player whom I believe is worthy of more suspicion than he's seen is Risk. Virtually no contribution save one post relatively recently.
This is partially in answer to SP's question about whom I'm suspicios of. I'm about to pass out though, so I'll do some more reading in the morning. See you all then.
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Since he obviously cares about being lynched but not about finding scum (with the possible exception of one semi-contributive analysis of D1 voting posted N2/D3), I'll vote for risk. Putting your own interest before town victory seems pretty scummy. I have to wake up in like 6 hours and go on a 20 mile bike ride, so I probably won't be back before the deadline.
##Vote risk.nuke
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EPT
