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In regards to the above, I think points 1-3 could be null or bad-townie tells given the proper context. Point 4 however I find extremely scummy. Just look at this quote:
On August 10 2012 09:44 Axero wrote:Since the game started and I didn't know I'd be in it I had previous plans. I've been checking the thread and still trying to feel people out, but since nothing really had anything to do with me personally, I haven't replied. (Not the best play, but again, first game  ) As for your first criticism, those two statements I made were my response to YH, not actual suspicions against you, kind of just possibilities. But yes, at this point, it is my gut reaction to your actions. In the middle of a game of DotA atm, so I'm sure this didn't answer everything you wanted. I'll respond in a bit.
The excuse is the thing that really gets to me. He's not just saying that he's a newb (normal/badtownie tell) - he's using it as an excuse for not having read the thread, not having provided analysis, and general lurkiness. I find this scummy.
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@ GoodKarma:
We're on the same page about Axero, but I have some questions about your case on Sideni:
One scum-read I currently have on him is mistaking the name of the person who was getting married (Kronen). This was mentioned before, but I feel it is an important point. If you're struggling to read and write in English to the point of scrutinizing every word, how can you make this kind of mistake of names? This fits the profile of an unconcerned scum combing the thread before posting. It may not seem big, but in my last game (NMM XXII) the last scum we caught made this same mistake.
I was obs'ing that game, and if the "last scum" you're talking about is Alan, I don't get what you mean. This just seems wrong to me.
As for the other stuff (fluff, trying to hard to be pro town, etc), I consider them null-reads for now.
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@ Yourharry
On August 10 2012 12:30 YourHarry wrote:
##Unvote
Is it acceptable to take into consideration personal coaching experiences to speculate players that are being coached?
Some good discussion going. I also want to point out the lurkers in this game. If you are not going to be active, please replace out. Axero, if you are going too busy to invest considerable efforts in this game, please replace out. Goodkarma, put more thoughts into your post. And not having anything to add to the discussion is not an excuse. There are always rooms for contribution. Keep reading, repeatedly if needed, until you do.
I will be back in a bit to post my thoughts. Also would really like the moderator to allow speculation on who is being coached. As far as I am concerned, scums can lie about their coaching situation, so anything should go.
I don't see why it isn't allowed, but I doubt you can build a convincing argument based on your views of someone getting coached. It may convince you, but I can't see you convincing other members of the town without having had the same coaching experiences as you.
Also, now that you've unvoted mkfuba, who are you suspicious of? Any strong scumreads so far?
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Hmm so I might be making TL mafia's first excuse for activity - my car got recalled and apartment hunting today is cancelled (or atleast postponed untill next week). I'll be around today and for the lynch.
Now on to other matters:
@ YourHarry:
[u]Regarding other players being "coached" - to be honest, that's something I really try not to pay attention to. Someone looking "coached" can be a mafia or town tell as far as I'm concerned.
Regarding your response to my Axero case - On point 4, you mention that citing newbiness isn't always a mafia excuse. Alone, I agree. However, he uses it as an excuse for not having read the thread or posted analysis. This is the bit that I find scummy.
Regarding your case against mkfuba - I really don't get it. What part about that makes mkfuba scummy? As far as I can tell, the case against Lvdr was good, and ample reasoning was given for questioning your town read.
@ ShadySands
Regarding Lvdr
What I am concerned about is his lack of scumhunting so far.
The point about Lvdr "narrowing suspicions" is interesting, but I consider it a null tell until we have more information. I got a townie lynched (as mafia) on that same reasoning in XXI, and I don't consider the lurker-list to be necessarily mafia motivated based on these actions. Furthermore, the players he listed were the lurkiest at that point in the game.
[/b]
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EBWOP: posted the @ ShadySands bit by accident (instead of clicking preview)
@ ShadySands
Regarding Lvdr
What I am concerned about is his lack of scumhunting so far. Policy may be a basis to suspect someone, but isn't a basis to lynch someone. He hasn't been actively hunting scummy behavior as I would have liked. I find Axero more suspicious for now though.
The point about Lvdr "narrowing suspicions" is interesting, but I consider it a null tell until we have more information. I got a townie lynched (as mafia) on that same reasoning in XXI, and I don't consider the lurker-list to be necessarily mafia motivated based on these actions. Furthermore, the players he listed were the lurkiest at that point in the game.
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@ Axero
On August 10 2012 19:27 Axero wrote:I should have taken more time to read through the posts and anaylize them. Bad posts on my part. Now to the brunt of it. Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 01:43 Hapahauli wrote:On August 09 2012 14:22 Axero wrote:
That doesn't mean Hapa is a townie. Scum know who eachother are, therefore Hapa could know your alignment and could be setting you up to get lynched. It's a good way to shift focus to someone else while also seeming like a townie.
It is also possible that they are both scum. Setting someone up as a sacrifice to ensure everyone views the other as a townie would seem like a very effective strategy.
Just my two cents.
(Post made from mobile so apologies for lack of quotes) This post makes absolutely no sense. Your first "theory": YH is town and I am mafia. Somehow, my exchange with YourHarry is a ploy for me to get YH lynched. Hell I haven't pointed any suspicion at YH! How exactly does this theory make sense? Even with spoiling that you're joking, you're still putting the idea in people's heads, whether serious or not.
Oh come on... if I wanted to really put that idea in people's heads, why would I include the joke spoiler? I didn't assume that people wouldn't read it.
Show nested quote +On August 09 2012 09:16 Hapahauli wrote:
Your second "theory":
Mafia do not seriously bus each other early in Day 1. Maybe a mini-argument to distance themselves from one another (like the mini-argument between mkfuba and YourHarry early on D1 last game), but never any serious suspicion Hell I don't understand what part of our exchange constitutes any suspicion at all.
You have to explain this more Axero. Wild theories won't get you anywhere, especially if they suggest that you haven't read or analyzed the early-game exchange between me and YourHarry. Why do Mafia not bus eachother Day 1? It seems that doing so early would set one of the mafia up in a great spot to lead the game in a direction that highly favors them. I may just be missing the point to not doing so. My thinking when bringing this up is that most of you were in a game together already and if you rolled scum this game, you would still need to match your previous activity, because everyone expects you to play this way. What better way to stay active and make a case against someone else than this? If I'm just completely missing something let me know, but this seems pretty logical from my point of view.
The first, is that I didn't build a case against YourHarry. Therefore the talk about bussing is irrelevant, since I didn't suspect him of anything!
The second, is that "bussing" implies serious suspicion and really actively trying to get someone lynched (hence "throwing someone under the bus"). That just doesn't happen in mafia games unless someone makes a huge Day 1 blunder. Sure mafia sometimes throw out suspicious at each other sometimes, but it is rarely significant unless it's sure their parter were to be lynched. After all, it's a great way to build town cred for one person, but there's generally no way the second person (who's also playing the game for enjoyment) would agree to such a thing unless he/she has a high chance of getting lynched.
You're suspicious to me Hapa, that hasn't changed as of yet, regardless of lack of evidence.
Find some evidence, find some motive, or hell find something. Do you think that you're helping the town by stating suspicious without reasoning? I don't care who your suspicions are, but you better provide reasoning if you do so.
Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 17:27 YourHarry wrote:
It is possible that Hapa is scum. But the fact that he is being active does not increase that chance. He has been active as townie before, and whether or not he is actively trying to match that meta is unclear.
But let's suppose Hapa is scum. Who do you think are his scum partners? Who do you think can be cleared as town?
As far as who else I think is scum... I have no personal reads on anyone else yet, but much of the arguements against lvdr I find myself agreeing with. And who I think can be cleared as town, I find myself agreeing with much of what mkfuba07 is saying, so as of right now I'm saying town for him. YourHarry, even though you're against Hapa as far as me being scum goes, I still can't really place you as town in my book quite yet, but you're closer to town than scum right now. This post from iamperfection is really what is making me a bit cautious. Show nested quote +On August 10 2012 07:18 iamperfection wrote:
Lvdr defends me because he knows im town in hopes that i will go after someone else. Lvdr then encourages me to make new case in hopes to get attention on someone else. I'll try to start adding good analysis.
What is it about that post from iamperfection - does it make you additionally suspicious of Lvdr? You have to explain these things.
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@ Everyone:
Since we're quickly approaching the lynch deadline, please start stating your primary suspicion(s) and thinking about casting your votes. There are several players who don't have any strong stances, and that's unacceptable this close to the lynch.
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Can you outline your suspicions of Sideni? I think the case on Sideni is comprised of a lot of OMGUS.
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Also, why the hesitancy against Lvdr and Axero? What part of the suspicions against them do you feel aren't valid (or are less valid than yours against Sideni)?
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@ Axero
At the time I called you a lurker, you only had two posts. Even now, your post count isn't particularly high in comparison to the more active players. I'm most concerned about this though:
You only had two posts 24 hours into the game, which is suspicious given your first post.
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On August 11 2012 01:36 Axero wrote:@ HapaIt's a fast paced game.  I'm still excited to play, even if you can't see it in my posts. Learning as I go. Fluff: (Congrats on the wedding btw)
But that's the thing here - you're excited to play... then you didn't read the thread and had to have your friend/coach remind you to read? This makes no sense.
Btw, you should congratulate Konen - he's the one getting married. I'm the one who was supposed to look for apartments today until my car got recalled =/
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On August 11 2012 01:17 Axero wrote:
@ Hapa
...
Why did you decide this was the breaking point to which I could no longer be a town, in your eyes?
If I had mentioned me having other plans during the night earlier (like you and a couple others did), would this have changed your view toward the statement, or would you still feel the same way?
The only evidence you have on me not being town is some bad logic posts and excuse posts, that a few others have disagreed with you on. As for Day 1 lynching, your activity isn't a good giveaway and my suspicions remain a gut feeling.
Wanted to comment on this:
Making excuses for inactivity/lack of analysis is a mafia tell. Playing the n00b card is a pretty common one. This was the "breaking point."
If you had mentioned other plans, I'd treat it as a null tell - I'd just take your inactivity for face value and still be suspicious of you. It seems silly to argue this since it didn't happen though. Also, I stated my "plans" before the game started and before I knew my allignment. Furthermore, I haven't seen any other players in-game state excuses for current inactivity. Kronen mentioned a marriage, but that's in the future... not now.
I don't consider my logic bad, and no player so far has outright disagreed with me on my read. A few are hesitant about lynching you given their other reads, but I bet every player in this game would see you as suspicious to whatever degree.
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@ Dandel Ion: Sideni posted quite the case on you, and you going "lol, Vote Sideni" makes you look pretty shitty. If you are town, I highly suggest you defend yourself.
As of now, I'm reading through Sideni's case, and I'll post my thoughts within the hour
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Requesting a VoteCount pl0x
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Well a lot of Sideni's case on Dandel Ion is based off of his interactions with Lvdr. I would go as far as to say that Sideni basically assumes that Lvdr is mafia. For example, if Lvdr were to flip town, a good majority of the case would go up in flames. While this is a possibility, it's pretty severe to accuse Dandel Ion of being mafia without Lvdr having flipped red or something.
@ Sideni - what would happen to your case if... say Lvdr flipped green at one point in the game? Your case basically assumes that Lvdr is mafia, and based on Dandel Ion's interactions with Lvdr, you voted on Lvdr. Why aren't you voting Lvdr based on this?
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Thinking aloud: one of the things that's really bugging me about Sideni's case is the stance on Lvdr.
Sideni just seems too sure that Lvdr is scum. If Sideni agrees so much with mkfuba's case and thinks it's so good, why isn't Sideni voting for Lvdr? Specifically, why Sideni going ahead and voting for Dandel Ion when he thinks Lvdr is scum, and that Dandel Ion's interactions with "scum-Lvdr" make him suspicious?
Can anyone give me a townie motive? 'Cause I don't see one.
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On August 11 2012 04:07 Dandel Ion wrote:@Hapahauli: Show nested quote +On August 11 2012 02:49 Dandel Ion wrote:On August 11 2012 02:33 Hapahauli wrote:
@ Dandel Ion: Sideni posted quite the case on you, and you going "lol, Vote Sideni" makes you look pretty shitty. If you are town, I highly suggest you defend yourself.
As of now, I'm reading through Sideni's case, and I'll post my thoughts within the hour Please read through it before saying things like that. I don't trust myself to respond in a calm matter, I'd just insult him over and over - that would not help anyone. If you read it and still think it's worth responding to, tell me. What about it now you read it?
I posted my thoughts already:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=31#615
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=31#617
The case is pretty bad. Like really bad. I'll have to do some thinking on whether or not it's scum motive or not though: bad cases aren't necessarily mafia-motivated.
At the moment, it's my gut feeling that Sideni is a bad townie. Sideni has been pretty active, and despite the "fluffiness" of his posting, they read to me as genuine attempts to contribute. Secondly, I don't understand why Sideni (as mafia) would go after Dandel Ion after largely agreeing with mkfuba's case on Lvdr. I feel that hypothetical mafia-Sideni would have sheeped on Lvdr.
So for the moment, I'm sticking with my vote on Axero. I've made my previous case on him clear, and he's sheeped into voting for Lvdr. I think he's the best lynch, but I have much more thinking to do over the next few hours.
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EPT
