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@ mkfuba07 and @YourHarry - Good stuff! It's great to see people making cases!
However, we need to narrow down the number of suspicions we take to the lynch deadline atleast 5-6 hours before the lynch deadline. Too many suspicions floating around makes it incredibly hard to secure a majority lynch.
Also, it's important not to simply post suspicions - we need to post why we think a person is more suspicious than other players. If you intend on holding your suspicions/votes on Promethelax/Lvdr, I expect you to say why they are more suspicious than the standing cases on iamperfection and Synystyr.
My thoughts on the two cases above are coming within the hour.
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Regarding the case on Lvdr (by YourHarry)
Lvdr seems like bad-townie more than scum-motive. He's been very responsive (almost instantly if you look at timestamps) to my questions, and has generally maintained an active presence.
I view his "inconsistency" as townie as well - he's flip-flopped a lot this game and has made no effort to hide his thoughts. I think mafia would be more careful than that. Secondly, his filter reads exactly like a townie would think! He's never too sure of himself, and he acknowledges new suspicions with new information. I'm not a fan of his play (one-liners, summary posting, etc), but he is active, and it reads as bad-townie to me.
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Regarding the case on Promethelax (by mkfuba07)
I'll be honest - I just don't have enough information to cast significant suspicion against Promethelax. I consider the meta-stuff as null tells. I consider his view on YourHarry a null-tell as well, and I give him some townie points for being willing to flip-flop on his views. I'd expect mafia to tunnel YourHarry more (hence my suspicions against iamperfection).
I also don't follow your logic here:
He mentions many actions that are considered pro-town, gives advice for appearing pro-town, and states as a strength "posting in an active and pro-town manner." When not giving meta advice, his posts are filled with instructions for how to be a good townie. This isn't an issue on its own, but he then avoids contributing to the discussion, either simply agreeing/disagreeing with people or telling them he'll look into it. His only case is one against Golbat based on something he admits is not a scum tell. He votes for Golbat despite stating that he feels that YH's play is scummy, and this is after he states that it's bad to lynch townies no matter what.
I think you twist his motives here. By the time he votes for Golbat, he's pretty up-front about how he thinks YH is town. Also, his statement about "it's bad to lynch townies" has no contradictions with his vote against Golbat, who he believes is exhibiting "anti-town behavior" by virtue of Golbat's promised (yet missing at that point in time) case.
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@ Promethelax - since you seem to be the only one railing Golbat at the moment, I'm curious what your thoughts are on the Synystyer case. Do you think Golbat is a better lynch than Synystyer?
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##Vote Promethelax
I defended Promethelax earlier on this page on the basis that I didn't have enough information to make a read on him. Now I do - Promethelax has NOT been scumhunting! On this basis, I believe he is mafia.
My case is based on the following three observations:
1) Inconsistent attitude towards YourHarry
2) Voting Golbat for scum-mentality reasons
3) Fluff Posting (meta/town-advice/etc)
Prom's attitude towards YourHarry
Promethelax has had a very inconsistent attitude towards YourHarry (YH). He is one of the first to FOS YH on the basis of his anti-town play. Despite his FOS, he calls YH's play erratic, talking a lot about his play while being indecisive:
...
YH was town in XXI and played as inexplicably as he is playing here. He voted for three people on D1 and unvoted one of them about a million times (rereading his filter I can't tell how many were because he wrote them wrong and how many were because he changed his mind). All three of his targets were town.
not going to lie, I laughed. But this is a waste of time and space. How do you feel about him and his play? Is Harry town, null or scum in your eyes and why?
Promethelax is very concerned with YourHarry, but never really makes an effort to make a case, or even pressure YH. This is because he's not scumhunting. Things get very strange in his next few posts. First, he lightly defends YourHarry by questioning Dandel Ion's case against him:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=11#203
Read his (ed note: YourHarry's) posts and look for the motivation in them, is it scum or town? As scum why would he do what he has done? as town why would he do it. Actions speak louder than meta.
The above quote would imply that he doesn't find YH's posts scummy since he's attacking Dandel Ion's suspicions, yet in Prom's next post...
Though Harry has played so far with his pants squarely atop his head I feel that this is totally in line with his town meta, essentially I find his posting scummy and will be watching him but am hesitant to vote into him because his play is simply bad and, as any coach will tell you, bad play is a dumb-tell not a scum tell.
Again, he show's hesitancy and contradicts his thoughts above. Note how he calls Harry's posting scummy, yet hasn't contributed any analysis towards why.
However, I find this post the most scummy:
If more people want to bring up Harry's bad play as scummy they will have to go through me. I am, here and now, hard defending his bad play. It is bad. Not scummy. The one thing that makes him look scummy to me was his first refusal to re-post his post after screwing up the formatting. Since than he has been playing in a pro-town way and I expect him to continue to improve.
All of a sudden, Promethelax has no doubts about YourHarry. Despite his hesitancy above, he's convinced that Harry's play is bad-townie. This is a complete 180 from his previous quotes, where he believes Harry's posts are indeed scummy, but are in line with his previous townie meta. Promethelax is TOO convinced YH is town - only scum would know that.
Prom's Cases against Golbat
After getting of the YH case, Prom moves on to Golbat. After some light suspicion about Golbat, he puts on his vote:
On August 07 2012 10:01 Promethelax wrote:
Though Harry has played so far with his pants squarely atop his head I feel that this is totally in line with his town meta, essentially I find his posting scummy and will be watching him but am hesitant to vote into him because his play is simply bad and, as any coach will tell you, bad play is a dumb-tell not a scum tell.
The player I have the most concern with right now is Golbat, as I said earlier making a promise and not following through is an anti-town behavior. Not simply bad play but anti-town. This allows for a player to get off the hook of suspicion because they have promised to do work to help town but also keeps them from having to put their reads into the thread which allows a scum player to stay neutral about people until they can let a townie make the case.
Until he posts his 'cases' my ##Vote will be on Golbat
Note the language here - he votes Golbat for being "anti-town." He doesn't accuse Golbat of being mafia, nor something like the "scummiest player." Just "anti-town". He also gives a possible motive for Golbat's play, but never accuses Golbat of being mafia! This may seem innocuous, but check out the next quote:
Context: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=15#292
...
And the one case he did post was on a guy who was already under suspicion. His actions lead me to believe that he is in fact a scummy player trying to get out of posting promised cases because he does not want to be forced into a position of having strong reads at the beginning of the game as such he will retain my vote.
See a pattern here? Again, voting someone because they're a "scummy player" - NOT because he thinks Golbat is Mafia. This is Mafia motive! Mafia want to get "scummy players" lynched, and not actual scum.
Prom's Fluff Posting
Prom's Filter (starts on Page 2, because Page 1 is all pre-game stuff):
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&user=251061¤tpage=2
Prom really hasn't posted that much. On top of this, he's been much more concerned with talking about meta and giving town-advice rather than scum-hunting. While I consider this a null-tell alone, combined with the above evidence, it paints the picture of a mafia avoiding posting actual analysis.
Based on the three points above, Promethelax is my strongest scum read. He's shown mafia-mentality in his case against Golbat, and he's just TOO sure that YourHarry is townie.
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Why I believe Promethelax is a better lynch than Synyster and iamperfection
Synystyr - while he has been suspicious, the suspicion on him so far has been too easy. It's been coming together without any resistance from scum or Synystyr himself. I doubt mafia would sit back and watch one of their own burn with so little resistance. WIFOM, yes, but that's my feeling.
iamperfection - His play has been suspicious, but my confirmation bias may have gotten the best of me when I questioned him. I just can't see mafia deciding to policy-lynch YourHarry from day 1. It seems absurd in my eyes, and I want to see more from iamperfection before I make a decision.
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On August 08 2012 02:09 Shady Sands wrote:Show nested quote +On August 08 2012 02:00 Hapahauli wrote:
Why I believe Promethelax is a better lynch than Synyster and iamperfection
Synystyr - while he has been suspicious, the suspicion on him so far has been too easy. It's been coming together without any resistance from scum or Synystyr himself. I doubt mafia would sit back and watch one of their own burn with so little resistance. WIFOM, yes, but that's my feeling.
iamperfection - His play has been suspicious, but my confirmation bias may have gotten the best of me when I questioned him. I just can't see mafia deciding to policy-lynch YourHarry from day 1. It seems absurd in my eyes, and I want to see more from iamperfection before I make a decision. The reason why it's felt so easy to lynch Synystyr is because he hasn't been defending himself. I haven't seen a single case or single defense out of him since the train on him started, which is anti-town play. Given how guilty Syn looks and Syn's inactivity, we could just as easily say that scum was bussing him.
You could very well be right, however, it's my experience that concensus lynches on D1 rarely end well. Furthermore, his lack of defense is not necessarily mafia-oriented - you'd think mafia would atleast ATTEMPT to defend themselves, or at the very least, his teammates would urge him to post. This reads as bored/ragequitting townie to me.
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On August 08 2012 02:22 mkfuba07 wrote:
I'm going to reread your case against Prom a few times before responding to it, but I just want to know: What was the tipping point between your previous slight town vibe and "strongest scum read"?
I was tunneling iamperfection so hard that I didn't see anything else around me (confirmation bias wooo). Your initial case alerted me to Promethelax's play, and after replying to your case, I was surprised at how little attention he was getting with his relatively low post count (most of his posts are pre-game). One thing led to another, and I decided to write a case this morning.
The last paragraph in his last post really sealed the deal for me - the mafia-motive to me is very clear, and the rest of his play falls into place very well.
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akjwehfakwjbfmsndbvamsdnfbewhfjeh2r32heo13halksjdbnck
/in
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Btw, is there an obs/mafia QT for D1 we can read through?
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Well it was a re-hash of everything I posted, and it would have went well with the "this is too easy" theory. You all of a sudden came in and bombed a case against Synystyr after relative lurking lol
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On August 08 2012 02:42 mkfuba07 wrote:/in~ Would you mind explaining my slip(s) to me? I felt that each of my reads was acceptable given the concerns I presented, so I would guess that the slip was part of the concerns themselves. I thought it was pretty well constructed 
3 scum, 4 reads
It's just a very scummy post - you mention you want to "narrow down your reads" like I suggested, then immediately post multiple suspicions. You're "ordering players by scumminess" instead of catching mafia.
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On August 08 2012 02:46 Dandel Ion wrote:Show nested quote +On August 08 2012 02:45 Hapahauli wrote:On August 08 2012 02:42 mkfuba07 wrote:/in~ Would you mind explaining my slip(s) to me? I felt that each of my reads was acceptable given the concerns I presented, so I would guess that the slip was part of the concerns themselves. I thought it was pretty well constructed 3 scum, 4 reads It's just a very scummy post - you mention you want to "narrow down your reads" like I suggested, then immediately post multiple suspicions. You're "ordering players by scumminess" instead of catching mafia. I did that too though. (just with actual scum on top of the list, suck it "town meta")
You mean this post:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=12#225
I read that as pretty townie tbh - it's just like a townie would think at that point in the game: one or two stronger reads with a bunch of null-tells.
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...sooo can we take a look at Obs/Mafia QT if there is one?
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On August 08 2012 02:52 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 08 2012 02:45 Hapahauli wrote:On August 08 2012 02:42 mkfuba07 wrote:/in~ Would you mind explaining my slip(s) to me? I felt that each of my reads was acceptable given the concerns I presented, so I would guess that the slip was part of the concerns themselves. I thought it was pretty well constructed 3 scum, 4 reads It's just a very scummy post - you mention you want to "narrow down your reads" like I suggested, then immediately post multiple suspicions. You're "ordering players by scumminess" instead of catching mafia. I gotta say, I don't really see where you are coming from here. Picking 4 people out of 12 (13? I didn't actually count) IS narrowing it down. Ordering players by scumminess is something everyone does in every case ever in which they make points against multiple people. Saying "I think A has a 50% chance to flip scum, B has a 40% chance to flip scum, and C and D both have a 25% chance to flip scum" and then keeping your pressure on A and possibly even voting at some point isn't "scummy", its a play that either side would do.
Well valid or not, I did read it as scummy when it was posted =P
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'fair nuff. I was expecting you to post one or two in response to that TBH - more my mentality I suppose
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On August 08 2012 03:02 TolEranceNA wrote:
I sincerely apologize for my lack of activity in the past 24 hours, as for now, i will try my hardest to start being a useful and active town member.
If you feel that I am lynch worthy, please share your opinion, as for my inactivity is due to my work schedule and my terrible memory!
Seize the day! (1st Mafia game!)
<3
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874¤tpage=16#307
##Vote ToleranceNA
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On August 08 2012 03:07 Dandel Ion wrote:
If there is anything, could the coaches say if there were some obvious tells, or opportunities to apply pressure were missed by town?
I know it was barely 2 days, so I don't actually expect anything big to be in there, but just in case, I'd like to know
The only thing that really stands out to me as far as mafia tells is mkfuba's quick 180 after his Promethelax case. Even then, that would have been pretty hard to catch until town had some allignment info.
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EPT
