I Can't Believe it's not Themed MiniMafia

On July 13 2012 06:55 Keirathi wrote:


Certainly.

strongandbig

+ Show Spoiler +

He comes in by leaving himself an excuse for his inactivity that he can fall back on later, then proceeds to lay out basically an entire case based on pure speculation.



So why are you letting him have a free pass for doing it this time?

Together, I feel this is a decent case for him being scum but his recent reply to gonzaw's post gives him so townie cred back in my eye. I'm still keeping an eye on him.



DropBear
I'm mainly suspicious here of his vote for Vivax.



When his previous calling out of Vivax was simply asking questions + Show Spoiler +. He never explicitly said he suspected him of being scum, and tali called him out on this and he never responded.



As an aside, its pretty frustrating that so many arguments in this game are based on meta. As someone new to TL, I feel like I am disadvantaged when you all have so much extra information on each other.

On June 15 2012 02:31 austinmcc wrote:
Okay, so, we're really stagnating here. Got ... three votes? on three people. Not a lot of thread activity. I'm still looking mainly at Crossfire, a little at Suki. But this has to happen.

LURKERS AND BROKEN PROMISES

Crossfire - Crossfire has had a whopping 2 hours of activity this day cycle. Lurked, posted a few things in that time span, and now has not been back for 22 hours. We've got no reads from him, no response to the thread's suspicions of him, and that ain't good.


Trackdoor - 16-17 hours MIA. Could be sleep/job, but he was active at a lot of different points of the first half of D1. Hasn't commented on anything since Rofl's case on alan.


Mouldy Jeb - 22 hours MIA. Was active about 2 hours before this time and 2 hours after this time during the first real day of D1. Contributed some super shoddy reads, called out crossfire for lurking, and also gave us this:Broken promise to contribute


Golden - Has 2 posts of substance + Show Spoiler +. Filled a 34-hour gap between the first and second with nothing but posts that he was working on his response, to expect a post coming, etc. etc. Within 13 minutes of that second post, he's already responded to sciberbia to note that he didn't fully catch up on heavonearth and noted that he missed sciberbia case on crossfire + Show Spoiler +. What? What was that?
Broken promise to contribute

Honorable Mention - Sciberbia - You said you'd be away, but given the way this day is going so far we're going to need contributions when you return.

---

Where are you guys? Where are these promised posts? Golden, what about this - ?

On June 05 2012 00:21 austinmcc wrote:
Alright, looks like I'm a lovely replacement for Ange. Lurk around for more than half the day cycle, then finally get active. Now if only it would lead to the same results...

Regarding today's lynch, my vote is on Vivax. Because we already have some robust cases and scumreads on him, I won't get too specific here, but I know that you haven't gotten much from Ange/me since pushing suki, so I at least want to show my reasoning. I feel like he's got a very good chance of flipping scum, but I'd like to hear some more from him. Parts of his filter do read town to me.
##Vote: Vivax

Vivax
As long as we're considering heist vs. vivax for a lynch today, "defending suki" isn't really helpful because we're looking
at two players that did so. So here are some specifics.

• Comments made during the Suki/Ange discussion

I found this reasoning odd. His focus on who has "contributed" more. Suki has posted, but not all that much, and Vivax, I'd like to know what you felt Suki had contributed. It's difficult for me to get a read on this because I actually saw the Suki lynch and flip before replacing in, so I was a little biased here. But rereading, I don't get the feeling that Suki contributed more than Ange, who had come back and, while having lurked for a bit, was actually moving discussion forward and contributing a solid read and case.

I highlist this because again, it seems like Vivax is overly focused on earlier actions. Ange came back with hours to spare, as she mentioned she had plenty of time to post a case, argue back and forth, have other suspicions, etc. This wasn't a 5-minutes-to-deadline ninja return. Look at the last line in particular. Ange has returned, has made a case, has discussed. Yet Vivax is informing her that she's HAVING a bad impact on the game. Sure, she had a bad impact the first 24 hours, but since returning has actively had a good impact on the game. Times have changed. If you are anti-lurking, fine, dandy, but I find it suspicious to be anti-lurker AND state that someone is negatively impacting the game for NOT lurking. What is actually being negatively impacted here? The scum team. Further, although it's a little hyperbolic and so I'm not putting much weight on this, Vivax wants to lynch Ange for returning and becoming active.

• His stance on Heist

This is sort of a null tell, but worth discussing. He initially thinks Heist is town - + Show Spoiler + - then scum - + Show Spoiler + - then town - + Show Spoiler +. Then, towards the end of the night, he's back to suspicious. Which is FINE. We had a lynch, we had solstice die, there's new information there that should make people reconsider reads.

But why does he change back to being suspicious of heist? Heist's bussing comment + Show Spoiler +I don't like Vivax's indignity or that he focused on this phrasing, because it DOES look like Vivax is swapping over to Suki just to be part of the lynch. Vivax goes from being convinced heist was townie to being suspicious based on that little interaction, and, in my mind, the interaction doesn't support the change in Vivax's reads. I think he was looking for an excuse to get away from his townie read and push heist, who was really the best alternate candidate to push with solstice's death and his defense of suki. To those that interpet the bussing comment as some kind of slip, I strongly disagree. It's not quite a bus, because Vivax isn't pushing Suki for a candidate, but in fact, that's Vivax's entire response - "Your word choice is strange because I wasn't bussing."

Throw the term bussing out and look at what happened from Vivax's end, he went from a town read to a scum read on heist, because heist didn't want Vivax to vote for someone that Vivax thought was town. How is that a legitimate reason to find someone scummy?

• Fixation on Eishi_Ki

His fixation on Eishi_Ki never felt solid, and I read Eishi pretty towny. The fact that he tunneled Eishi long after it was clear that Eishi wasn't going to be a lynch target tells me that either: (a) Vivax is mafia and posts on Eishi help it look like he's contributing and help boost his filter; or (b) both town. Really heavy tunneling 1 on 1s seem to be the latter, so that's actually more on the townie side in my mind.



That's hastily constructed, but hopefully outlines my general thoughts on Vivax. It doesn't cover everything, and I know I haven't touched on heist or other topics. Never replaced in and it's odd to get started midway through. I've got to actually do some work at work and need to be active in my other game, but I should be around and post some more throughout the day.

On June 08 2012 04:20 austinmcc wrote:
On heist
I found his voting scummy. However, I found it odd because he swapped to Unforgiven and that seemed like a play to have a non-Suki candidate in the mix now that Ange was back and did not seem like a legitimate target. However, given that I now feel like I do about Unforgiven, and given that Ange found him scummy while pushing suki (I feel like as her replacement I should try and put myself in her shoes for D1), I'm willing to believe that town could find both suki and unforgiven scummy. Ange happened to find suki scummier at first, voted her, FoSed unforgiven. Heist happened to find Unforgiven scummier early, voted him, then later suki.

I don't find that bussing comment scummy, as I've said.

Therefore, I don't want to vote heist today (However, I'd like for him to, you know, contribute here). However, I sought some non-tunneling coaching, and after considering that, I need to consider a heist lynch. Can you guys give me like...your number 1 reason besides the voting pattern and the bussing comment that you find Heist scummy?

On golden/ShiaoPi
Starting with Xatalos's initial post - + Show Spoiler + and sciberbia's last post + Show Spoiler +

Golden's posts: Sorry Shiao, you're stuck with them. You/Golden are the same alignment, Ange/I am the same alignment. You got dealt the crappier hand there. Golden DID lightly defend suki early on. However, when I look at the timing, he did so before the convincing cases had been made. I'm going to give him a little credit for that, because he didn't defend suki after suki was really taking a pounding.

ShiaoPi's vote on Vivax: I did the same thing, but didn't publicize it. Heck, I did the same thing in my last newbie game every time I pushed someone that ended up town. Sinking feeling 5-10 minutes before lynch, but telling yourself there's no time to do anything, and if you were sure yesterday, and sure that morning, shouldn't you just listen to past self? At the very least, I don't get anything from this. YES, Shiao could be mafia trying to get cred. OR, Shiao is town and had doubts. Either is plausible.

Suspecting Eishi_Ki - Suki soft defended Eishi_Ki like crazy earlier. One of the more surprising things I found while rereading. Like...3 times or so? Frankly, Eishi_Ki hasn't done much. If his filter was full, Suki's posts wouldn't stand out like they do. With so little to work with on Eishi_Ki, I agree with Shiao that the Suki posts make him look bad. So, I'm not finding Shiao scummy off of that.

Suspecting Xatalos: Your filter is baaaaaaad on that count Xatalos. I haven't checked old game yet. But you're constantly moderating. Constantly asking people for thoughts, giving someone a gold star for a good post. It looked bad to me as well, before I really read through you and Shiao's stuff today. So again, I saw the same thing, not finding it scummy.

sciberbia's points were mostly the same - the suki defense, the vivax vote/doubts, the defense of heist. Not really finding ShiaoPi scummy right now.



Again, I wasted too much time this game day, so I'm going ahead and posting these two. Post on the case against xatalos coming soon.

On June 08 2012 05:54 austinmcc wrote:
Here's why I suggest a mislynch. And this is entirely dependent on both not returning.

If both heist/eishi are town, we lose.

If ONE is town, we either lynch scum, mislynch and lose, or no lynch. It would take every single town vote on the non-lurking scum in order to lynch. Shiao doesn't think heist is scum. I still don't think heist is scum (Again, I need something beyond the vote and the bussing comment). So if one of the lurkers is mafia, either one of us gets convinced at the 11th hour or else we have to lynch someone other than heist.

If NEITHER is town, then we win if they both stay inactive.

That's why I want to no lynch right now. IF both are inactive, then the only situation in which we should lynch is if we are absolutely sure about who the non-lurking mafia is. So you need to convince shiao or i. Otherwise, it would have to be non-heist. OR we can no-lynch, because then we lose 1 mafia/1 town to inactivity and 1 to NK. We're then 3/1 tomorrow and can pull it off.

Unless we're 10000000% sure who the mafia are, a no lynch is the best option IF we don't get activity. Someone correct me if I'm wrong (gotta walk dogs, back in 15-20). We cannot win if both lurkers town. We can only win if both lurkers mafia. We can win with a correct lynch OR a no lynch is it's 1/1. I would rather have the extra day to be more sure.

Things that mess up that analysis - if we're in the medic/cop version. In which case ...I dunno. The optimal play would be something like cop claiming, medic not claiming, and hoping a medic save could get us another day in some cases? Or if either one returns/doesn't get modkilled.

On June 09 2012 06:38 austinmcc wrote:
Okay so, here are some thoughts as I do a read through, without addressing the cases. I'm just reading through the thing and giving comments wherever a post of Golden/Shiao or Xatalos sticks out. Very disorganized, but at least I'll get it all out and you can look over it if I'm the night target:

D1 - heist and suki are both pushing cattivik once you hit pg. 7 or 8. Golden also believes cattivik scum, while xatalos defends him. Golden not just saying he's scum, but pushing a scum read on xatalos towards eishi + Show Spoiler +Heist and golden continue to just sort of lightly push Cattivik as most of our confirmed townies come in and say they found him townie.

D1 - this post + Show Spoiler +Take out the uncertainty, look at the rest of the message. He's not just uncertain of suki, but uncertain because a bandwagon may be forming. Just prior to this, unforgiven posts on suki and votes, sciberbia posts a sizable analysis of suki and votes. Sciberbia notes that three hours have passed since his case and nobody responded. When sciberbia calls attention to the fact that he posted a case and nobody responded, golden jumps to the rescue. He's uncertain of suki because a bandwagon may be forming. Yet the bandwagon is a whopping two votes large, and the second vote came with a sizable analysis of why suki is scummy. That's not a bandwagon. That's a bad excuse from golden to defend suki.

D1 - Xatalos DOES keep changing his reads. And he DOES keep asking for other opinions. See things like - + Show Spoiler +. When Xatalos backs of unforgiven and votes ange there are two votes on ange. Milton and vivax. Milton, I'm calling you confirmed town here, so you've got two townies and xatalos joins. What happens right after catalos drops unforgiven (only he and suki were on unforgiven at that point)? Suki decides to drop unforgiven as well and come over to ange. Either xatalos has the lead in pushing their two votes around or suki realizes that unforgiven isn't going to be a target now that townxat has moved, and moves her vote to keep it relevant and pushing a townie who might get lynched.

So as of now, I'm reading Xatalos town and Golden scummy. Xatalos has moved, but moved with reasons and moved his vote at decent times. He's never the first on maybe, but he gives some reasoning and he's never the last off. Golden has held his vote this whole time, while suki moves around and heist is sitting on superouman.

Ange posts her case on suki. Xatalos responds, saying there are some mistakes, not moving off of suki. He doesn't just tell her the case is wrong though. He says, + Show Spoiler +. I get a further town read off that. (1) He's responding almost immediately to her case. Not with a very robust defense, but just noting it. (2) He doesn't agree with it, but he's not confrontational about it. His post, if you read it without thinking about the current situation, reads like he feels good about the case, but notes that there are some things Ange might not be taking into account, and then he comes to the bolded part. He sticks Suki's name right next to the word mafia, and asks if she still thinks that Suki is mafia given the other items he brings up. He's openly inviting Ange to post another "Suki is mafia" post, and a stronger one at that. Again, part of the post looks like a soft-defense of Suki, but the post as a whole opens Suki up for more criticism.

Ange has the bit where she FoSes Unforgiven. Xatalos follows her there. Not that odd, considering he'd already pushed unforgiven earlier. Easier to see him moving his vote to a non-ange/suki candidate when he was already on that person. Golden still has yet to (1) vote OR (2) comment on ange's case on suki. heist comes in to push unforgiven, to say he thinks ange and suki are townie. No mention of golden at all, who's the ONLY person yet to vote and hasn't responded to the suki case, one of the few players to do so. Why is heist not suspicious of golden? Thread brings up golden a few times, but he never becomes a giant topic of discussion, so it's not enough for me that heist doesn't call out golden for being absent because some townies fail to do so as well. Neither suki nor heist mentions his absence though.


Okay, there's my D1 stream of consciousness. Looking back at that, I see golden coming off scummy, although the end of the day is ruined a little by his absolute absence. While xatalos moves his vote, I'm not seeing it move in a very scummy way. Moreover, the way that xatalos pushes for further information on suki feels very town to me. Also, as a minor point, I don't like how suki/heist/golden all pushing cattivik early and xatalos is not jumping aboard. Seems like maybe mafia team wanted to set cattivik up, because eishi_ki was suspicious of him, so you've got an easy bandwagon to start pushing.

On July 12 2012 11:33 austinmcc wrote:

That's because there's basically nothing to my first post except "Millers claim," which isn't helpful.

What I can add is that I think talismania's 3-case plan is bad, but that seems to be the general sentiment. Forcing arbitrary requirements on everyone isn't really going to help us, and is going to clog up the thread later. People are going to make halfhearted cases to try to reach that number, someone will inevitably only find 1-2 people scummy and we'd end up in some "does x not making 3 cases = scummy?" discussion, and we also might end up lynching people that EVERYONE finds a little bit scummy rather than someone that a few people have a strong scumread on for good reasoning.

Can also add that I haven't played with gonzaw, but I've obsed his recent games. Anyone here feel like they do a good job reading him, and if so, can you post some tips? I've found that I almost always end up reading him as scum, because he is active enough and posts enough that I keep finding scummy things to latch on to. Had him scum at the end of liar game just prior to the katina lynch, but also found him really scummy in the recent MTG because I felt like some of the plans he pushed hard were anti-town (check the obsqt early on, although I didn't post much there). So...any magical tricks for getting the right read on Gonzaw?