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On July 18 2012 19:33 sciberbia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 16:48 Keirathi wrote:On July 18 2012 16:46 Risen wrote:
It's hilarious how scummy keirathi's posting is. (i guess I'm the only one seeing it though since you have to take my being a cop as true to see it that way)
And maybe strongandbig sees it. Then fucking lynch me today so you can get past your tunnel vision that you had with Vivax and maybe make an actual good read. I'm serious, as much as I don't want us to lynch a townie today, I would rather Risen not be biased and tunneling me and not trying to find the real scum. ##Vote: Keirathi @Keirathi What is with this attitude? If you are town, please play to win. You're saying that we should kill you so that we realize you are town and can turn our attention to finding the real scum? Gimme a break. I don't think I have to explain to you why this is anti-town logic. This is making me slightly more suspicious of you. Please play to win.
Also, I am a bit surprised by the overwhelming anti-gonzaw sentiment. Did you guys think Risen had a guilty on gonzaw? As far as I know, only Mattchew and I expressed any serious suspicion of gonzaw prior to the daypost. Despite the rather odd bandwaggon on gonzaw, all signs seem to be pointing towards gonzaw being scum. I still want to reread more of D2, but gonzaw's D2 behavior seems suspicious. I'll make a post about him before I leave for work.
Arguing with him left me exasperated and extremely frustrated.
If he is really cop, which I still have some difficulty believing, then at least if I die today he won't waste his night check on me and might actually find a scum instead of confirming another townie. Or if he gets NK'd then we have 3 confirmed townies in the 5v2 day, which is a 50/50 chance of hitting scum.
My vote was entirely because I thought Risen had a scum check. I dunno if his goal was to mislead, but thats what I took from his post when I first realized he was cop. Then I thought through it more and realized we had only had 2 nights, so him saying gonzaw was "pretty much confirmed scum in my eyes" was just trying to pull the wool over people's eyes.
@s0lstice: yea I had been thinking about the possibility of there being JK+masons+cop. I dunno how likely it is, but I haven't seen a mini with 3 blues yet in the few I've read through.
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EBWOP: also I can poke so many holes into the way Risen has acted, especially today, that I feel like I'm inadvertently going to tunnel him and it will cloud my judgement regarding other cases.
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Well, it kind of makes sense for newbie games. But I was looking outside of newbie games too. In face I remember a quote someone said about GMarshal not hosting any games with more than 2 blues (lately?), but I can't find it now. But you're right, its just speculation with no real benefit, and harmful if we do have a JK and he's forced to claim.
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gonzaw wrote:
Hmm, the ONLY way I could see scum Risen fake-claiming like that, is if solstice is his scumbuddy.
That's not even the scariest situation in which Risen fake claim makes sense imo.
The scariest situation is more like Risen+Mattchew being scumteam.
Mattchew comes out today make a case against you, and Risen claims cop with some more doubt on you (his "scummy as fuck" comment, even if he later retracted it.
Lets say this is enough to get you killed, and that you are town. Then they kill off either S&B or s0lstice.
Risen then makes a case against me (don't forget, he said "If you're [gonzaw] scum Mattchew is in a rough spot, if you're town scib/Keir are pretty much dead men" earlier) and its enough to get me lynched. I flip town as well, then the other of S&B/s0lstice are NK'd.
Now we're down to 5 people alive, with 2 scum and 1 confirmed townie (the mason who hadn't claimed yet). Mattchew throws Risen under the bus, and gets Risen lynched flipping scum. Kills the mason.
Now we're down to 3 people (Mattchew, and 2 out of Milton/DropBear/sciberbia). I'm not sure Mattchew is likely to be lynched in that situation.
Okay, so that's my worst case "OMG WIFOM" situation. I know it's WIFOM. I'm just saying that it is a possibility, and one that I am scared of.
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On July 19 2012 06:19 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 23:19 Mattchew wrote:On July 18 2012 19:15 Risen wrote:
Sigh... I don't think gonzaw is scum and I wanted to live through the night so I was playing stupid but I guess my claim was going to force me to go all in sooner or later. I'm inclined to think you're town, as well. I really think scum team is keir/matt. Wanted to keep my suspicions of him masked until keir flipped. So what is this awesome scum read you have on me based on purely meta again? I just think if Keir is scum you're the only logical partner.maybe gonzaw but I like him :/ Keri is trading himself 1 for 1 here btw guys. If you lynch gonzaw tonight we're still ok, but I really think Keri is scummy as hell. Look at him harping on my "misleading" people. How the hell? I never claimed a check on gonzaw, my posting clearly shows my check was on s0L. He's muddying up the waters to try and trade 1 for 1 since that's about as good as it gets for him now.
Trading 1 for 1 with you make NO SENSE WHATSOEVER. If I'm scum, and you're cop, then I leave my 1 teamate against 3 confirmed townies.
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On July 19 2012 03:26 strongandbig wrote:okay so wait a minute actually risen when you said + Show Spoiler [this] +On July 18 2012 07:24 Risen wrote:
Town in my eyes
me
strongandbig
s0Lstice
dude whatever it's summer
miltonkram
dropbear
keirathi
sciberbia
mattchew (completely dependent on gonzaw flip or mason claim)
scummy as fuck
gonzaw (I'm going to hold that the misspelling of milton's name was a scumslip, also see other cases posted)
##vote gonzaw
List order is from town in my eyes to scum in my eyes. If gonzaw flips scum Mattchew becomes scummier in my eyes (unless he's the mason partner in which case confirmed town). I don't think milton is scummy b/c why would his teammates misspell his name. Dropbear and tali beign scum would mean double scum up for lynch d1 and I don't see that as likely. Scib and Keir could be swapped, I can't tell whether my dislike of Keir is b/c he doesn't like me or b/c I genuinely find him scummy.
I would really like to claim so if the mason could claim right now I'd be pretty pleased. There's a good chance that with mason claim we might just be winning (regardless of gonzaw alignment) was keirathi your top scum read at that point?
@Risen any response to this?
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On July 19 2012 06:46 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 06:42 Risen wrote:On July 19 2012 06:40 DropBear wrote:On July 19 2012 06:33 Risen wrote:On July 19 2012 06:29 DropBear wrote:
I think we should lynch Risen.
Ok so two things are important. If Milton is telling the truth about the roleblocking and if they are mafia aligned AND if Risen is telling the truth and is sane.
A - Both are lying and are the remaining scum. Lynching Risen gets scum.
B - Milton tells the truth, Risen lies and is scum. Lynching Risen gets scum.
C - Both are telling the truth. Risen won't get another check at all. Mafia will either shoot or block him for the rest of the game. If Mafia decide just to block him and leave him alive, noone EVER gets confirmed. Then it makes Risen look bad and could lead to a shitstorm of mislynching later down the line. Lynching Risen now confirms strongandbig and solstice, tomorrow we lynch through one of the other remaining players.
D - Milton lies, Risen tells truth. Risen will almost definitely get shot if there is no mafia roleblocker, so we are going to lose him anyway as there are no medics and evidence so far suggests that there is no jailkeeper. He will almost definitely die. Lynching Risen confirms solstice and strongandbig, tomorrow we lynch through one of the other remaining players.
Based on the permutations, I think we should lynch Risen.
If there are holes in my logic please point them out!
##Vote Risen I like how this ignores every other player in the game rofl. Dropbear is Keir's partner? Dude there is no way of confirming either claim beyond a flip. I can see absolutely no reason why you have claimed so early, or for your breadcrumb. You were under suspicion from several people and were unlikely to be shot by mafia. Plus you say you had no scum hits so you had no real important information to give by claiming. I have no idea whether I believe you or not and this is as far as I can tell the only way, given the added complication of Milton's claim. That doesn't explain why you ignore completely all other people in this game. Your play of lynching me then shooting another townie tonight leaves enough confusion that a mislynch on a townie tomorrow is a very real possibility. Thinking about this and Matt/gonzaw are the two lynch candidates tomorrow if you lynch me here and then shoot away from those two. Gonzaw will probably then get lynched and then what?
Then there are 5 people left, with 2 confirmed townies (okay, only 1 if the other mason is either s0l or S&B), and 2 scum.
That sounds like pretty good odds for town to me with a guaranteed townie on the last day.
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On July 19 2012 06:50 Keirathi wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 06:46 Risen wrote:On July 19 2012 06:42 Risen wrote:On July 19 2012 06:40 DropBear wrote:On July 19 2012 06:33 Risen wrote:On July 19 2012 06:29 DropBear wrote:
I think we should lynch Risen.
Ok so two things are important. If Milton is telling the truth about the roleblocking and if they are mafia aligned AND if Risen is telling the truth and is sane.
A - Both are lying and are the remaining scum. Lynching Risen gets scum.
B - Milton tells the truth, Risen lies and is scum. Lynching Risen gets scum.
C - Both are telling the truth. Risen won't get another check at all. Mafia will either shoot or block him for the rest of the game. If Mafia decide just to block him and leave him alive, noone EVER gets confirmed. Then it makes Risen look bad and could lead to a shitstorm of mislynching later down the line. Lynching Risen now confirms strongandbig and solstice, tomorrow we lynch through one of the other remaining players.
D - Milton lies, Risen tells truth. Risen will almost definitely get shot if there is no mafia roleblocker, so we are going to lose him anyway as there are no medics and evidence so far suggests that there is no jailkeeper. He will almost definitely die. Lynching Risen confirms solstice and strongandbig, tomorrow we lynch through one of the other remaining players.
Based on the permutations, I think we should lynch Risen.
If there are holes in my logic please point them out!
##Vote Risen I like how this ignores every other player in the game rofl. Dropbear is Keir's partner? Dude there is no way of confirming either claim beyond a flip. I can see absolutely no reason why you have claimed so early, or for your breadcrumb. You were under suspicion from several people and were unlikely to be shot by mafia. Plus you say you had no scum hits so you had no real important information to give by claiming. I have no idea whether I believe you or not and this is as far as I can tell the only way, given the added complication of Milton's claim. That doesn't explain why you ignore completely all other people in this game. Your play of lynching me then shooting another townie tonight leaves enough confusion that a mislynch on a townie tomorrow is a very real possibility. Thinking about this and Matt/gonzaw are the two lynch candidates tomorrow if you lynch me here and then shoot away from those two. Gonzaw will probably then get lynched and then what? Then there are 5 people left, with 2 confirmed townies (okay, only 1 if the other mason is either s0l or S&B), and 2 scum. That sounds like pretty good odds for town to me with a guaranteed townie on the last day.
Err disregard that, I forgot one of the nightkills.
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I really don't understand why the other mason isn't claiming. Is the possiblity of confusing the mafia as to whom to NK better than confusing the town when it gets to LYLO and you claim?
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On July 19 2012 07:05 DropBear wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 07:04 Keirathi wrote:
I really don't understand why the other mason isn't claiming. Is the possiblity of confusing the mafia as to whom to NK better than confusing the town when it gets to LYLO and you claim? Or bugs trolled us all and there is no second mason.
Yea, like s0lstice said, austin said "gl to town + my mason buddy" when he died. He could be trolling too but I doubt it :p
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On July 19 2012 08:07 Miltonkram wrote:I need to backtrack a bit. I find Keirathi's "giving up" post extremely scummy. Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 16:46 Risen wrote:
It's hilarious how scummy keirathi's posting is. (i guess I'm the only one seeing it though since you have to take my being a cop as true to see it that way)
And maybe strongandbig sees it. Then fucking lynch me today so you can get past your tunnel vision that you had with Vivax and maybe make an actual good read. I'm serious, as much as I don't want us to lynch a townie today, I would rather Risen not be biased and tunneling me and not trying to find the real scum. ##Vote: Keirathi If he were town I think he would continue to try and push a Risen lynch for the reasons he has claimed, to either hit scum or get close-to-confirmed town players. Keirathi giving up does nothing to help town or help us figure out whether Risen is truly a cop or not. Because of this, the only motivation I can see for Keirathi "giving up" is as a gambit to get town players to view him as town. Furthermore the timing is off. Keirathi gives up when there is still plenty of time to pursue cases. I've seen plenty of town players give up close to the deadline, but never 24 hours before it. This makes me think Keirathi's frustration is a ploy. Where did his suspicion of Risen's cop claim go? He states "I would rather Risen not be biased and tunneling me and not trying to find the real scum." It seems like he's treating Risen as if he knows Risen is town. If Keirathi is town, he would pursue a case against Risen harder and search for reasons to distrust Risen's cop-claim. I don't think he's come up with any decent reasons not to trust the claim. I'm not done reading Keirathi's filter, but this screams scum to me. ##Vote: Keirathi
Read my next post.
I'm still willing to die. And I wouldn't really say I'm giving up, I'm giving Risen a chance to be useful if he is actually the cop.
Its a terrible play from a townie perspective, and I feel bad for saying it, but if I do die, then when I lay out my cases and flip town, you can look back and read them without the bias of thinking that I'm scum.
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EBWOP: also, just because I'm suspicious of the claim doesn't mean that I 100% believe it is fake. I think there's a very real possibility that he is telling the truth, I just can't make a good case for *WHY* he would do it. If there was a good motivation, I would be much more inclined to believe it, which was why I said I believed it at first when I thought he had an actual scum check on gonzaw.
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@sciberbia: I assume he was talking about me and s0lstice jumping on gonzaw after his cop claim. But it was more of a wagon, than a bus (unless Risen+gonzaw are scumteam?)
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Also regarding "giving up": maybe I am giving up, but I was giving up with good intentions. When I made that post, I was obviously frustrated, but my mindset was that I would be more useful to the town dead than alive. Which was basically the premise I made for lynching Risen to begin with. It wasn't that I necessarily thought he was lying, but until he dies then it all amounts to exactly nothing.
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The only thing that really gives me pause in this situation is: if Risen was scum, how is he planning? to get out of being "absolutely sure" when I flip town, especially when he already super tunneled Vivax on day1? It really doesn't make sense to trade 1 for 1 at this point, so I'm really boggled.
Why does town Risen claim in the first place? I can make a case for scum Risen, but I still can't think of solid motivation for cop Risen to claim.
But why would scum Risen want to 1-for-1 trade?
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On July 19 2012 07:26 DropBear wrote:Ok one last post before bed. Show nested quote +On July 19 2012 07:12 s0Lstice wrote:
Dropbear, did you even try to read Risen's filter to see if his claim made sense? I don't think you did, and that's pretty scummy. I did read his filter. Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 07:00 Risen wrote:On July 17 2012 06:59 talismania wrote:
i should get some time to defend fuckimn onehanded and everything Sorry dude. I honestly shouldn't be voting for you since I haven't built a case on you. My town reads are voting you, though. #whatacopout Breadcrumb is here. BEFORE talismania's flip. At this point Risen has had only ONE check, which came back as townie. At this point any possible mafia role is in play, including framer. For the life of me I can't see any reason why you would be so obvious at this point. This is also before austin's flip confirming the existence of a mason/masons. Not only this he is under significant suspicion at this point. You yourself were pushing him quite hard. There is no reason why mafia would shoot him before his breadcrumb/claim that I can think of. I don't get the claim at all.
Quoting this because it was never answered.
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@sciberbia:
If gonzaw flipped scum, I wouldn't necessarily say that "OMG MATTCHEW IS SCUM", but I wouldn't discount the possibility either. I feel like he just leeched off of your cases both of the last 2 days with rather weak arguments compared to yours. I'm not sure why he would double-bus, though, nor do I understand why Risen believes that.
Basically what I'm saying is that even if gonzaw flips scum, I wouldn't look into Mattchew too much until it was LYLO. Then I would think carefully about the possibility of a double bus, especially if it was the day with 3 people left.
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On July 19 2012 09:57 Risen wrote:
I'll lynch gonzaw if you promise me to lynch keir if he flips town and matt if he's red. (I'm dying tonight, no questions asked. Scum absolutely can't afford me living)
Matt you should be ok with this since it's 1 for 1 and you get all tomorrow to make a case on who to lynch after you're dead.
As it stands, though, my vote is staying on keir because he's in the lead to get lynched and he's my read. If it comes down to one vote I'll vote gonzaw, not otherwise.
If I'm alive tomorrow I'll report the results of my check and then we go from there (likely a risen lynch but then we have another confirmed terran or red check)
Why can't I be scum with gonzaw? If you really think I'm scum, then I'm not sure why the gonzaw flip would matter. I've neither pressured gonzaw nor defended him to any extent.
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This is what I don't like about you claiming early before you had to if you really are cop.
You've given scum ammunition. You've laid out your plans for what you want to do.
What if the mafia has a framer? You just told them who you were going to check.
What if mafia has a roleblocker? They have no reason to ever kill you if they can just relegate you to "extremely suspicious VT" for the rest of the game until you die. If they can keep you alive until the LYLO day, then they've basically won anyways.
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So, another question for Risen:
What will you do moving forward if I am lynched today and I don't flip scum? I'm not even asking you to believe that I'm not scum, just from a purely hypothetical context, I would like you to explain what your next course of action would be.
You were so convinced Day 1 that Vivax was scum, and you were wrong and then disappeared and "grieved" over how wrong you were. Will it be the same?
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EPT
