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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I'm not sold on your logic, but you will have to wait a few hours for a response. @Risen I think you are quite biased against Keirathi because he suggested that we lynch you. Could you please explain what makes him so scummy in your eyes? I just don't see how you can be so sure. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Can we please not lynch Keirathi today? I just reread his filter and I don't think he is all that likely to be scum. Risen's case Risen, if you are town, I really think you are being influenced by OMGUS and confirmation bias here. How is town keirathi supposed to know you are a real cop? I really don't see anything alarming that keirathi has said D3. Please try to reread with the mindset that keirathi is town, was understandably confused by your claim, and understandably cannot be sure that you are cop. If you are still convinced he is scum, please explain with specific reference to keirathi's posts what exactly is so scummy. Miltonkram's case I will grant you that the post you have quoted is suspicious. Town sciberbia would never ever vote myself in a situation like that. But keirathi already has a history of giving up early (see mid-D1). Maybe he is just an easily frustrated person. Still, I see your logic and grant this is suspicious. However, I don't think it is suspicious enough to warrant a lynch. You said yourself that you haven't even considered the rest of his filter. Since D2, he has started giving me some townie vibes. A couple of townie points for keirathi 1) Keirathi's top suspects during D2 were me and Mattchew, the people pushing for a talis lynch. It was pretty clear IMO that talis would end up getting lynched. If keirathi is scum, does it really make sense to spend several posts throwing suspicion on me and Mattchew, when he knows that talis is going to flip red, making Mattchew and me look townie? 2) Consider keirathi's reaction to the cop claim. Let's throw out the possibility that keirathi and Risen are both mafia (doesn't seem likely). Now, I think it is pretty clear that keirathi genuinely misread Risen's post and thought Risen had a guilty on gonzaw (I was confused as well). If keirathi was scum and gonzaw is not, wouldn't he know that cop could not possibly have a red check on gonzaw, and therefore not misread so easily? I think this is good evidence that keirathi is not scum unless gonzaw is as well. But a keirathi + gonzaw scumteam is pretty unlikely if you consider D1. In conclusion, this is good evidence toward keirathi's towniness. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 19 2012 07:36 Risen wrote: If gonzaw is lynched today and flips scum I'm going to be like a rabid dog tunneling you. I really think keir is the scum here, though. Why don't you think keir is scum? Have to plug my computer in still and I'm procrastinating on my case I really fail to see how gonzaw flipping scum makes mattchew more likely to be scum. Matthcew is currently suggesting we lynch gonzaw. Gonzaw is suggesting we lynch Mattchew. Wouldn't the natural conclusion be that exactly one of them is scum (or possibly neither). But this is the second time you've suggested that they are both scum. Please explain why Mattchew becomes more suspicious every time he leads a lynch on somebody who flips scum. On July 19 2012 06:31 Risen wrote: No. He became my top read following his reaction to the gonzaw bus Can you please explain precisely what "gonzaw bus" you are referring to here? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Let me just make sure I understand this. Please correct me on the points I am wrong 1) On N1, you got an inno check on strongandbig 2) On N2, you got an inno check on s0Lstice 3) You did not think gonzaw was scum at the start of D3 4) You intentionally started a wagon on gonzaw just to see who would jump on the wagon 5) You think that keirathi is scum because he jumped on the wagon so easily, and he also is interested in lynching you 6) You still do not think gonzaw is scum 7) You mistakenly used the word 'bus' when referring to you (Risen) starting a wagon on gonzaw Also, can you please explain why Mattchew would become more suspicious as a result of gonzaw flipping scum? This is the third time I'm asking you. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 19 2012 09:23 Risen wrote: I'm fairly certain I answered. With scum gonzaw matt is the only link I see. I think he's playing to his #1 townie meta if gonzaw is scum. Therefore, scum gonzaw = scum matt. And what wasn't answered there keir? I'm sorry, but am I the only one completely confused by this? What exactly do you mean by "matt is the only link I see"? Why can't you see a dropbear + gonzaw scumteam or a keirathi + gonzaw scumteam? Also, if gonzaw's being scum implies that mattchew is strictly adhering to his town meta, isn't the logical conclusion that matt is town? Since when is acting like a townie a scumtell? Is anybody else confused by this or I am just retarded? On July 19 2012 09:10 sciberbia wrote: 1) On N1, you got an inno check on strongandbig 2) On N2, you got an inno check on s0Lstice 3) You did not think gonzaw was scum at the start of D3 4) You intentionally started a wagon on gonzaw just to see who would jump on the wagon 5) You think that keirathi is scum because he jumped on the wagon so easily, and he also is interested in lynching you 6) You still do not think gonzaw is scum 7) You mistakenly used the word 'bus' when referring to you (Risen) starting a wagon on gonzaw Also, can you please confirm that all 7 of these statements are true, or otherwise point out where I am wrong? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I'm not saying Mattchew is cleared if we lynch gonzaw flips scum, but Risen has made some seriously questionable breaches in logic IMO and I'm trying to figure out if he is the real cop or is just bs'ing us. So I want to hear his reasoning. Risen's POV: 1) He thinks keirathi + dropbear are the scumteam 2) But if gonzaw flips red, suddenly holy shit, let's lynch Mattchew I don't get it. And I still want him to confirm my 7 points are true. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Gonzaw will probably get my vote. I've already explained how I find him suspicious. There is just a lot going on recently and I need to digest it. I'm going out for a run. I'll be back in a little while. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
@s0Lstice Are you really that sure about Mattchew? Honestly I see a few valid points in your case, but I just don't see how you are so convinced. points that could easily apply to me just as well as mattchew (if not more) -being alive after N2 -extreme pursuit of Talis on day 2... -...which doesn't match at all his pursuit of the gonzaw read -lack of pursuit on his 2nd main scumread -play which exhibits signs of knowing people's alignment -shitty day 1 scum hunting From what I've heard of Mattchew, his D1 scumhunting was at least as good this game as it normally is. -very bad logic in his read on Risen I'll let Mattchew answer for this one. Maybe his read on Risen has changed in light of recent events. -WIFOM batting us all This isn't especially scummy -buddying at least it is blatant buddying as opposed to sneaky buddying. Lynch a scum with me today and I won't mind if you buddy with me a bit. Anyway, it seems in character for Mattchew. Like when he blatantly sheeps reads off marv Overall, I just don't find anything particularly damning. I'd hate to lynch Mattchew today. I find risen, s0Lstice, and gonzaw all definitively scummier than Mattchew. @s0Lstice What do you think about gonzaw? Are you so sure about Mattchew + Risen that you think gonzaw is town? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
How likely do you think s0Lstice is to be scum? I'm getting more and more suspicious of him. Look at all the interactions between s0Lstice and talis in their respective filters. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I think he meant mason. I want some questions answered Are masons guaranteed to come in pairs of twos? Can you please provide a specific description of the mafia framer role? Can framers self-target? Can they target their scumbuddies? Can they both frame and kill in the same night? Can there possibly be two godfathers in this setup? Is it possible to have both a framer and a godfather in the same setup? I'll respond to gonzaw's questions about miltonkram next. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I think he should at least answer the framer question. And he told us there was 50% chance of SK (which he really did not have to do) so maybe he can tell us about the possible mafia roles. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I think that miltonkram is town. I don't like how suspiciously quiet he is being, but nothing in his filter causes me too much distress. He voices suspicions of both s0Lstice and talismania D1. talis is now confirmed scum and I have a feeling s0Lstice is as well. His meta accusation of me seems reasonable. I like that he is not hopping on the Mattchew bandwaggon because I think mattchew is town. Seriously, there is like direct correlation in this thread between a player's own scuminess and their confidence that Mattchew is scum. Makes me feel even better about him. I highly doubt that miltonkram is the best lynch today regardless of whether or not I was RB'd last night, so I'm not going to say until at least after scum has chosen their next NK. I'm feeling really torn up right now. I definitely do not want to lynch Mattchew or Keirathi today. My top 3 suspects, far and away, are s0Lstice, gonzaw, and Risen. gonzaw: I've covered a lot already. s0Lstice: I haven't really covered, but his interactions with talis are quite sketchy and some of his arguments this game have not been nearly as good as I am used to seeing. Also his townread of gonzaw on D1 reminds me of talis. Also he is hopping on the mattchew bandwaggon now risen: seriously questionable cop claim in addition to slipping the word 'bus' when talking about his accusation of gonzaw And for some reason all 3 of them want Mattchew dead and trust risen as cop. Since the beginning of the day, gonzaw looks slightly less scummy to me. I'm really not that confident he is mafia. I might feel better about s0Lstice. I think I'm gonna go write a case on s0Lstice and see how persuasive I find it. Even if I find s0Lstice scummy though, does it really make sense to lynch him today if we have a claimed cop with an inno on him? I can't see us ever losing this game to a risen + s0Lstice scumteam. Gah I just don't know. You'll hear more from me soon about s0Lstice Sorry -- I'm a little outta sorts right now. 18 hours to the lynch and I'm really not sure what to do... | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I wasn't making a definitive list of people that trust your cop claim. I'm like 50/50 on your cop claim myself right now. Also, I was behind the times on s0Lstice. I was thinking about his post where he was like 'this looks like exactly how risen would play blue'. But he has apparently changed his opinion since then and didn't really explain why. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 19 2012 12:57 Risen wrote: Gonzaws super soft defense of Keir with a far out case makes him a viable partner for Keir IMO. I still think drop is more likely than gonzaw but I'm convinced that two of Keir/drop/Gonzaw are scum now. what happened to mattchew + gonzaw being scumbuddies? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Your defense didn't do a whole lot for me. I could've guessed most of the things you'd say. Upon further review, I find s0Lstice pretty suspicious, but not so much so that I think he has to be scum or is a smart lynch today (seeing as our claimed cop has an 'inno' on him). OK I think I've made up my mind. Honestly, gonzaw, I'm still fairly suspicious of you, and I'm currently thinking that you are the best lynch. I just don't know who else we would lynch today. s0Lstice and risen are both reasonably suspicious as well, but they are claimed inno and claimed cop. It's not like you are ever going to become suddenly cleared (like s0Lstice might be if risen ever flips cop). We have a maximum of four lynches remaining, and I'm nearly positive that we should use one of them on you. I don't see why it shouldn't be this one. I'm going to feel terrible about this if you're town, but I'm playing to win here, and I think lynching you gives town the best chance of winning. So sorry if I'm wrong. ##Vote gonzaw For reference, here are the current stances on gonzaw. I'm scared that he'll flip town, but I think he is our best lynch. If you agree, please vote him. If you don't think we should lynch gonzaw today, please be vocal about it. relatively recent opinions mattchew: scum sciberbia: scummy miltonkram: scummy s0Lstice: scummy, just not as much as mattchew (or risen apparently) risen: thinks he has a good chance at being scum need updated opinions strongandbig: could get behind a lynch on gonzaw keirathi: likely he is scum dropbear: gonzaw looks bad I'm going to bed. I just can't think about this game anymore tonight without driving myself crazy. | ||
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