EPTOn July 17 2012 06:12 s0Lstice wrote:
you are assuming he plays 'correctly.' what's the incorrect town response?
you are assuming he plays 'correctly.' what's the incorrect town response?
OMGUS everyone who accused you?
I Can't Believe it's not Themed MiniMafia - Page 4
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
OMGUS everyone who accused you? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 17 2012 06:27 s0Lstice wrote: Mattchew, where are you? lmao | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 17 2012 06:35 talismania wrote: sry broke wrist volleyball been at doctors only type left hand wtf is thids bandwahon? y every game i die becausre of something stupid and then this tinme i get fuckinh injured and miss half a day well shit this is unsettling. Still, I don't think we should not lynch him just because he has a good reason for not being here. I still think he is scum. @talis Sorry about your wrist | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
talis's last couple posts are giving me a sickly feeling, but I feel like we have to lynch him. I hope to god he is scum cuz I'm going to feel great if he is and terrible if he's not I'll be back in a little while x_x | ||
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sciberbia
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thank god. was gonna feel so bad if he was town | ||
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sciberbia
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sciberbia
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I would not mind some protection tonight. That jail cell of your's looks pretty cozy from where I'm standing. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I have not considered all your setup discussion scummy as of yet, but now you're blatantly contradicting yourself. Seriously dude, wtf is with this? On July 14 2012 00:31 gonzaw wrote: So Cops....check away, any Red check you get will be legit (no Miller claimed and you are guaranteed to be sane). On July 17 2012 07:05 gonzaw wrote: Maybe he actually is a cop but was actually Insane ? >_> @Keirathi I know I promised you a response to your post, but some stuff has come up and I kinda wanna take a break from the game anyway. I'll respond in like 2-4 hours. Does anyone else have the feeling that there is no framer in this setup? Having both a framer AND a godfather AND the possibility of millers seems like anti-cop overkill. If there is indeed no framer, then all cop checks from now on are guaranteed accurate. If anybody tries to claim miller AFTER there is a guilty on them, I will be extremely suspicious of them since we all agreed they should claim. Keep in mind framer cannot self-frame | ||
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sciberbia
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Are you still suspicious of me? I'm just wondering since you haven't really talked about me in forever... I'm working on a response to keirathi atm. | ||
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sciberbia
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On July 17 2012 05:04 Keirathi wrote: Also @sciberbia: why am I not your top candidate anymore? You repeatedly stated at the end of Day1 that I was your biggest scum read, but you were going to consolidate onto Vivax just to avoid the no-lynch, which is fine. I think you slightly misunderstand my D1 reads. I wasn't consolidating onto Vivax. He was actually my personal top choice by the end of the day (before he started towntelling). I stated this at least once. explanation about D1 OK so first thing to understand is that, while keirathi was my top scumread, I don't think I've ever been so unsure about my top scumread. I was thinking to myself that he was maybe 40% scum. I think I made it clear that my scumread on keirathi was by no means strong On July 13 2012 08:38 sciberbia wrote: My top lynch candidate is currently Keirathi ... Overall, I would rate Keirathi as somewhat suspicious On July 13 2012 17:28 sciberbia wrote: @Keirathi If you're really town, at least give us the chance to read you that way. I don't think this defeatist attitude is going to convince anybody. Do some more scumhunting. Post some of your notes. IMO, nothing in your filter is irrevocably scummy, and I'd like to think that I'd be able to change my mind on you if you are town and make some good posts. When I wrote my case on Vivax, I realized he was a close 2nd as far as my suspicions go, but again, I was by no means confident that he was mafia. A couple of vivax's posts subsequent to my initial reads made him pass keirathi on my list of suspicions. I stated this here: On July 14 2012 06:18 sciberbia wrote: I'm feeling like vivax would be my personal top choice right now followed by Keirathi, but nobody else seems that interested in lynching them. For me, from most to least scummy, it is: vivax, keirathi, dropbear, s0Lstice, risen, austin I really don't know which of them we can even get enough votes for, but I'm currently feeling more anti-vivax than anti-keriathi and I think the vivax case also has more steam behind it, so I will ##Unvote ##Vote Vivax OK so lynch time came around and I started getting all frantic -- as you can tell from my posts. You don't really specify anything that bothers you, so I'm not sure what to defend. My statement to marv was just trying to get more votes on my top lynch candidate. Marv said he might actually prefer vivax to dropbear, but was expressing hesitation. So I gave him a kick in the butt. I think you might feel better about my behavior at the end of D1 if you compare it to my behavior at the end of D1 in NMM XIV. Just like in this game, D1 came down to two candidates with only a few minutes to go. I displayed similar frantic behavior, which made people get suspicious of me. I was townie. my case against talis About the last two parts of my case: talis attacking every lynch candidate (parroting gonzaw) and defending noone. I grant that they aren't major points and maybe aren't that tangible or convential scumtells, but I felt they were significant. Townies should have townreads that they are willing to fight for. Scum don't care who gets lynched as long as it isn't them or their scumbuddies. The line about talis being gonzaw's parrot was inspired by two things -- I had (and still have) great suspicion of a gonzaw + talis scumteam which you will hear more about tonight/tomorrow -- I was thinking back to NMM XIX where keirathi nailed two scum because they had the same reads. I think this is a reasonable scumtell. What scum wouldn't feel inclined to sheep reads off their scumbuddy and all-powerful gonzaw? Even if gonzaw is town, I don't like when people's reads are too aggreable As far as using similar language as other people, I've noticed I do that a lot. I like stealing other people's nifty phrases. Don't see how that is a scumtell though lol why keirathi was not my top candidate today As I explained earlier, I was maybe 40% confident that you were scum D1. This percentage maybe went down slightly since then. The main reason keirathi was not my top scumread today is that talismania looked so damn scummy to me and I still have a good feeling about a talis + gonzaw scumteam. Honestly, your "towntell" wasn't that big a deal to me. That is something I could totally see myself saying as scum as a fake towntell. Your moving down my list has more to do with the fact that scummier candidates came up. | ||
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sciberbia
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Unfortunately, I don't have a lot of free time during this night phase. I haven't reread any filters and don't really have time to reevaluate my reads. I'll try to do this tomorrow if I'm still alive. But since there is a decent chance I die, I just want to say a little more about my thoughts/suspicions on gonzaw I already explained most of my suspicions on gonzaw in my post on him yesterday. I didn't fully explain the link with talis seeing as talis had not yet flipped red. Both talis and gonzaw misspelt milton's name as 'milkton' Nobody but talis and gonzaw misspells milton's name. I looked through all of milton's past games, and nobody ever calls milton 'milkton', so it's not like a common misspelling or anything. Here is a log of every time that talis/gonzaw talk about milton + Show Spoiler + gonzaw 7/12 09:36 milton (one time) gonzaw 7/13 05:15 milkton (one time) miltonkram makes a post that both gonzaw + talis respond to ----------------------------- gonzaw 7/13 07:49 milkton gonzaw 7/13 07:52 milkton talis 7/13 07:54 milkton ----------------------------- gonzaw 7/13 12:01 milkton gonzaw 7/13 12:16 milkton gonzaw 7/13 22:29 both milton and milkton talis 7/14 01:32 milkton gonzaw 7/14 02:05 both milton and milkton 07/14 02:16 -- s0Lstice corrects them and both use 'milton' from then on The timing that I find especially suspicious is when both gonzaw and talis respond to one of milton's posts about milton finding a scumtell on talis. gonzaw says this post of milton feels townie, whereas talis is kinda wishy/washy on it. Pay close attention to the timestamps. Here are gonzaw's posts+ Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 07:49 gonzaw wrote: -------------------- snipped: a rather large post about s&b, scib, talis ---------------------------------------------------------- Why are you voting him Mattchew? What about all those guys I listed in my previous post? (Risen/Dropbear/Milkton/Kei/austin) Do you think sciberbia is more likely scum than any of them? What do you think of austin? On July 13 2012 07:52 gonzaw wrote: @marv+Mattchew: I'd like both of your opinions on austin+Keirath+those guys I posted about. I can't see anybody other than those 6 being scum for the moment (Milkton's last post doesn't strike me as scummy, so he could be town perhaps), so I think we should focus our attention on them for today's lynch Of course I won't "force" you to do anything (if you think someone else is scum), but at least pay some attention to those guys and if you trust my reads pay even MORE attention to them and post your thoughts (this applies to everybody too). And here is talis's post+ Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 07:54 talismania wrote: loooool I love how you shit on my plan and then literally followed it to the T in that post. Three reads, one sentence explanation, at 24 hours into the game. :-) In response to your blurb on me I think "backpeddling super fast" twists my words. I posted a half-assed plan expecting it to get shot down but knowing it would probably generate discussion. don't see how analyzing the reactions means I'm backpeddling. What's with your needling of me in general? I ignored the "are you just active lurker" post at first but maybe keirathi is onto something with you. ____________ I'd prefer austin or dropbear, leaning dropbear. I don't like milkton's last post either. There's a touch of omgus to my feelings there but I also think his argument he just made about me doesn't make much sense. Although come to think of it I dunno why he would come in out of the cold and start making a case on me does seem a bit random as scum. austin's reply to my poke at his post was rather overwrought which fits with my model of him as nervous scum but I guess that could just be the way the guy is too. solstice you said you know him - what do you make of it? The question is: why does talis misspell milton's name in this 07:54 post Explanation 1: Talis just happened to misread milton's name in the same way as gonzaw (seems rather unlikely) Explanation 2: Talis got the wrong spelling from gonzaw's early D1 post where he says 'Milkton' once (seems unlikely) Explanation 3: Talis read gonzaw's post that was only 2 minutes before his own. In those 2 minutes, he wrote the bit in his post about milkton, but for whatever reason did not acknowledge gonzaw's thoughts on the subject. He used the wrong spelling because he was looking at gonzaw's post (possible) Explanation 4: Talis and gonzaw were talking about milton and milton's latest post in the mafia QT. They decided to post different reactions to it. But while they were discussing, gonzaw's misspelling 'milkton' made talis think that 'milkton' is the correct spelling. (pretty good explanation) Other (minor) reasons I was suspicious of a talis + gonzaw scumteam -- I felt like both were kinda buddying me. -- I felt like talis had bad reasons for his townread on gonzaw. First, he assumed that gonzaw actually followed the talis plan (makes sense if they were scumbuddies), and said he found gonzaw townie for it. Later, he says gonzaw must be townie based on sheer effort. -- I didn't like how talis's reads seemed sheeped off of gonzaw's. This is a very minor point, but it reminded me of NMM XIX where Keirathi nailed two scum off having the same reads -- Just some gut feeling I had when reading their filters side by side On the other hand, gonzaw's filter does seem rather townie I just read through some of gonzaw's scum filter from liar mafia, and his filter this game seems significantly more townie to me. I agree with what s0Lstice said in this post: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 02:16 s0Lstice wrote: Marv, in regards to gonzaw, I've been reading through Liar game, and I wanted to share a few things I've noticed. You are first of all right about his activity level being alignment null. That was obvious. Others though I think are pretty telling -he was very cautious about calling someone town -he tunneled the shit out of Cephiro -he cast suspicion on a handful of people for various reasons, often because of bad play, but it was never to the detriment of his focus on Cephiro. In this game -he very early on was making town-reads while he hunted scum, and was public about it -he has not tunneled anyone, but rather cast a wide net to see what sticks. I'd even call it lack of focus, which is generally a town trait. -he has been factoring in new information and adjusting his reads So maybe I should put more weight on his townie-looking filter and efforts. I'd appreciate input from people that know gonzaw's meta well (mattchew, s&b, risen, anyone else?) where I now stand I'm still fairly suspicious of gonzaw. I still want to think more about him and read more of his past filters as both town and scum. Honestly, I'm hoping I (or someone else) can find a scummier candidate for tomorrow because I'd feel like complete shit if we lynched gonzaw and he flipped town. But if he is the most suspicious candidate, I'm not going to not lynch him just because I'm afraid of being wrong. I'm going to reread filters when I get time, and I may find someone else that I'd rather lynch than gonzaw. Just haven't had the time yet. | ||
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sciberbia
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I have a lot of different stuff to talk about. Shit this game is getting complicated. Wish we still had marv here :/ This post is about everything unrelated to scumhunting, and just my thoughts on the state of the game ---- I think it is pretty safe to assume there is no SK ---- I don't see any reason why SK would choose not to kill. So, it's pretty hard to explain why there was only 1 death both nights if there is a SK out there. Maybe if there was some jailkeeper stuff going on N1 and then both mafia and serial killer targetted austin N2. But it just seems unlikely. I'm just going to assume there is no SK until I see strong evidence to the contrary (2 dead bodies and no vig claim) ---- I may or may not have been roleblocked last night---- I was thinking about this all day yesterday. I don't want to tell you guys whether or not I was roleblocked. I think it just gives the scum information as to whether or not there is a jailkeeper. I'd rather keep them guessing with their NK's. Sorry to leave you townies in the dark like this, but for now I think this information is more helpful to scum then town. I'll maybe let you guys know at some point. ---- I think this setup has 3 total scum ---- First of all, NSH said that there would be more likely 3 scum. Secondly, we now have an outed cop claim (which I'm inclined to believe) in addition to the confirmed existance of a mason pair. On top of this, miltonkram has claimed a roleblock and I have claimed a maybe-roleblocked. I think that with all this blue stuff going on, we probably have 3 total scum to maintain game balance. 1 down - 2 to go. ---- My thoughts on Milton's claim ---- I could see many possibilities that explain Milton's claim. I don't think we will be able to deduce exactly what is going on. Perhaps things will become more clear after he next round of flips. I strongly believe that we should not lynch Milton solely because of this claim. And I don't want everybody to be forced to say something like "I did not roleblock miltonkram last night". I think we should just let him be for now. ---- Night action resolution period ---- I just want to make sure that everyone knows how this works. Between 5PM and 6PM EDT during nightphases, all actions are locked in. So, if you don't want scum to have some information to make their kill with, but you are afraid you are going to die and don't want to take your secret to the grave, you can claim it in the hour before the deadline during night phases. PM a host if you don't understand this. ---- I don't think we should lynch Risen (for now) ---- If we mislynch on townies for the next two days and Risen claims RB'd after the next two nights, I'll reconsider. To people that know Risen well, can you see this being a fakeclaim? I'm inclined to believe him, but I'm wary. ---- Thoughts on the reliability of cop checks ---- Like I said earlier, I'd be a bit surprised if there is a framer IN ADDITION to a godfather AND the possibility of millers in the setup. I also think it is rather unlikely that we have 2 godfathers. Therefore, if Risen is truly cop, I think that strongandbig and s0Lstice can be safely assumed as town (unless we see a framer flip). As soon as we lynch the next mafia, we get complete information on the cop checks. If we lynch mafia and he flips framer, we know that all "inno" checks are worthless, since the framer would most likely be framing his mafia buddy every night. If we lynch a mafia and he flips anything besides framer, we know that all cop's "inno" checks are accurate (unless there are two godfathers...) because framers cannot self-target Just to be sure, mafia framers cannot use their night ability on themselves, correct? ---- Thoughts on the mason buddy ---- Despite Keirathi's thorough research and the fact that my townread on austin was correct, I am not ausin's mason buddy. The mason buddy has not yet claimed, so either it is dropbear (who hasn't been in the thread yet) or whoever it is has chosen not to claim. I really don't see why we need them to claim unless they are about to be lynched or something, anyways. So I'm just putting this from my mind for now. If anyone is in the thread atm, I wouldn't mind some discussion on all these thoughts. I think setup-talk is helpful right now. I'll be posting more over the next few hours. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
As I see it, from your point of view there are two likely scenarios a) we have a jailkeeper and he protected me last night b) we don't have a jailkeeper I think that only scum really needs to know if we have a jailkeeper or not, so I don't see why I should say. If you gave me a good reason why town needs to know whether I was roleblocked or not, I'll consider telling you. But I really don't know how that information affects who we should lynch today or what your check should be tonight. | ||
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sciberbia
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I really don't see what is so scummy about milton's claim. It is true that we don't know exactly how he may have gotten roleblocked, but there are certainly several possibilities that come to mind. I don't see what scum agenda his claim is pushing. Trying to flush out a jailkeeper? How would his claiming roleblocked flush out a jailkeeper? Nobody is going to claim jailkeeper just to say that they didn't protect milton. The only scum agenda I can conceivably see him pushing is if milton and risen are scum, and milton is trying to make us think that there is a mafia roleblocker so that Risen can safely claim RB'd for the next two nights. But this seems kinda unlikely. | ||
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sciberbia
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In response to your latest post, sorry if you already knew everything, but I'm not so sure it was clear to everyone, and I'd rather overkill it than have everyone be confused and yelling at each other. Anyway, I really wish I knew you better because I just don't know what to make of some of the things you have said recently. Hopefully you can explain. First of all, why did you make a breadcrumb "#whatacopout" that you were so unhappy with that you felt obliged to claim today? Next, why did you claim today? You could have easily pushed a lynch on gonzaw without claiming cop. I don't see why you didn't wait until at least just before the deadline tomorrow. We would get the same information, and you wouldn't be so likely to die or get roleblocked. On July 18 2012 07:07 Risen wrote: Good question........ Damn gonzaw is pretty much confirmed scum in my eyes now that he didn't die last night. Why on earth would town gonzaw have been shot last night? Based on the suspicions of myself and Mattchew, gonzaw surely seemed the most likely lynch target for today. If he is town, mafia surely would leave him alive, no? On July 17 2012 18:39 Risen wrote: Lol, I remember specifically editing the spelling to be correct when I almost posted about milton bc I saw someone call him milkton and had to make sure I was spelling right. An interesting connection. Just got home btw On July 18 2012 07:24 Risen wrote: scummy as fuck gonzaw (I'm going to hold that the misspelling of milton's name was a scumslip, also see other cases posted) ##vote gonzaw On July 18 2012 13:27 Risen wrote: Conclusion: I think remaining scum team is Keirathi/Milton or Gonzaw. I think Gonzaw's scumslip was just him seeing it spelled like that previously and then doing the same thing. I almost did it (actually I thought I had spelled his name milkton somewhere, but maybe I corrected it before posting) myself, so I don't actually think that's a scumslip, just a screwup. I don't get it: was gonzaw's 'milkton' a scumslip or not? And by the way, gonzaw was the first one to ever spell it as 'milkton'. Talis may have gotten it from gonzaw. On July 18 2012 07:24 Risen wrote: Town in my eyes me strongandbig s0Lstice dude whatever it's summer miltonkram dropbear keirathi sciberbia mattchew (completely dependent on gonzaw flip or mason claim) scummy as fuck gonzaw (I'm going to hold that the misspelling of milton's name was a scumslip, also see other cases posted) ##vote gonzaw List order is from town in my eyes to scum in my eyes. If gonzaw flips scum Mattchew becomes scummier in my eyes (unless he's the mason partner in which case confirmed town). I don't think milton is scummy b/c why would his teammates misspell his name. Dropbear and tali beign scum would mean double scum up for lynch d1 and I don't see that as likely. Scib and Keir could be swapped, I can't tell whether my dislike of Keir is b/c he doesn't like me or b/c I genuinely find him scummy. I'm a bit confused. Milton is town because talis misspelled his name, but Mattchew and I lead a lynch on the godfather and we are 2nd and 3rd most scummy? o_O Speaking of Mattchew, why would gonzaw flipping scum make Mattchew seem scummier. You think that scum Mattchew would bus the shit out of the godfather and then the next night bus the shit out of his scumbuddy gonzaw? If gonzaw flips scum, Mattchew becomes nearly-confirmed town IMO. On July 18 2012 07:24 Risen wrote: I would really like to claim so if the mason could claim right now I'd be pretty pleased. There's a good chance that with mason claim we might just be winning (regardless of gonzaw alignment) If we lynch gonzaw and he flips town, not only are we not winning, but we may be in serious trouble. For the record, I'm still inclined to believe your cop claim. I'd just like you to explain some of these posts because they are confusing me greatly. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 18 2012 16:48 Keirathi wrote: Then fucking lynch me today so you can get past your tunnel vision that you had with Vivax and maybe make an actual good read. I'm serious, as much as I don't want us to lynch a townie today, I would rather Risen not be biased and tunneling me and not trying to find the real scum. ##Vote: Keirathi @Keirathi What is with this attitude? If you are town, please play to win. You're saying that we should kill you so that we realize you are town and can turn our attention to finding the real scum? Gimme a break. I don't think I have to explain to you why this is anti-town logic. This is making me slightly more suspicious of you. Please play to win. Also, I am a bit surprised by the overwhelming anti-gonzaw sentiment. Did you guys think Risen had a guilty on gonzaw? As far as I know, only Mattchew and I expressed any serious suspicion of gonzaw prior to the daypost. Despite the rather odd bandwaggon on gonzaw, all signs seem to be pointing towards gonzaw being scum. I still want to reread more of D2, but gonzaw's D2 behavior seems suspicious. I'll make a post about him before I leave for work. | ||
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sciberbia
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On July 18 2012 22:17 s0Lstice wrote: We should also talk about the NK a bit. Austin has been playing pretty good town recently, so I don't think he was a terrible target for anyone as scum. Still though, I am having difficulty believing that scum Gonzaw would not try for either sciberbia or mattchew. Mattchew especially, since he is a vet and good player overall. I would think the optimal play for scum Gonzaw would be to kill Matt and then WIFOM his way out of the increased guilt. Anyone else thought about this at all? I was expecting austin to be the NK if gonzaw is mafia. Gonzaw listed austin and me in his "you are so fucking town it hurts" category. Combined with the fact that I had a townread on austin and nobody else had really accused him recently, gonzaw would have a hard time ever getting austin lynched. Looking back through his filter, gonzaw has recently been grouping austin and me together a lot. Maybe he figured out austin was mason and thought I was the mason partner? I was half-expecting myself to die, but gonzaw surely expected jailkeeper (if there is one) to be on me rather than austin. And I wasn't really expecting Mattchew to die, although I can see how he'd be a decent choice. Still, there is a good amount of cumulative suspicion on Mattchew (although I'm not really sure why). In conclusion, I think the death of austin is evidence against gonzaw if anything. | ||
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sciberbia
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Also, scum didn't know until today about the mason pair and DT, so that wouldn't have factored into their NK decision last night. Finally, I don't think JK + cop + mason pair is imbalanced, but I'm kinda a pro-town kinda guy so >_> | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
My suspicions are kinda broken up over two previous posts and this one. To recap, here are reasons why I was suspicious of gonzaw after N1: -- has not actually contributed all that much to lynching scum -- I feel like he's been buddying me -- he contradicted himself on one of keirathi's posts -- marv died N1 -- he repeatedly said D1 was shitty -- he tried to get Mattchew lynched off what IMO is just not a scumtell (Mattchew's disappearence) -- the 'milkton' possible scumslip -- talis gives some bad reasons for a townread on gonzaw D1 -- talis's reads seem like they were sheeped off gonzaw Here are further reasons I have to be suspicious of gonzaw for D2 and N2: I think austin as the NK is minor evidence against gonzaw I explained this in my last post gonzaw seemed a bit slow to get on board with the talis lynch I think Mattchew talked about this in his case during N2. Gonzaw made a small case against talis during N1. Within the first 12-18 hours of D2, Mattchew and I posted cases against talis, both of us confident that he was scum, and we both voted him. I think it was pretty clear that talis was the primary candidate for lynch at that point. But gonzaw didn't really address talis for quite a while, even though I explicitly asked him twice. On July 16 2012 04:58 sciberbia wrote: Just woke up. I'm a little disappointed that my case for talis hasn't received more support. His defense was reasonable, but I still feel pretty strongly that he is scum. @gonzaw What do you think of talis right now? Would you be happy lynching him today? On July 16 2012 06:28 gonzaw wrote: Dunno about talis yet, I'm having some difficulty trying to figure out the whole tails/Dropbear/solstice situation; but I'll make sure to read on that. On July 16 2012 09:02 sciberbia wrote: @gonzaw Please post your most current thoughts on talis. On July 16 2012 09:19 gonzaw wrote: I found him initially suspicious last night, and so far I didn't see anything that would change my mind from him when I skimmed the thread. But damn I still haven't finished reading the thread in its whole :/ (still haven't reached most of the cases done this day) Too little time to do everything. On July 16 2012 11:45 gonzaw wrote: For now I wouldn't oppose a talismania lynch at all by what I've skimmed (plus talismania has basically been useless all late-D1, and all D2 as well). I don't know if maybe I'd support a solstice lynch better, or if I change my mind and find Dropbear more scummy, but we'll see once I read the thread once and for all! Stay tuned. On July 16 2012 11:47 gonzaw wrote: Fuck it I doubt I'll change my mind about talismania. ##Vote: talismania Just wanted to get the vote out there for a more "official" standing of what I said before. If gonzaw is town, I'd have expected him to be a lot more enthusiastic about the talis lynch. He posted significant suspicions of talis during N1. Then Mattchew and I post very confident (I think persuasive) cases on talis at the beginning of D2. Whereas if gonzaw is scum, I can see him being rattled by so much suspicion on his godfather, and by the fact that I called out a possible talis + gonzaw scumteam. Which might explain why he didn't seem quite on point, as Mattchew pointed out. His D2 play definitely felt different than his D1 play. I guess it's possible he was just disturbed by fatigue and the fact that he seemed to be losing thread control, but his prancing around the talis issue doesn't bode too well for him. Gonzaw's accusations of talis D2 felt misplaced Shortly before the deadline, gonzaw made two rather sizeable posts against talis. One with general accusations and then one reassuring people that talis's absence implicates him as scum. + Show Spoiler + On July 17 2012 06:05 gonzaw wrote: Can you comment on other issues? What about solstice, S&B, Mattchew, Risen, and all the stuff that was discussed about them? Of course who you want to lynch is a very important one (I'd like sciberbia to answer that though, doesn't hurt anybody) About talis: Before his "plan", I actually found him kind of town. He posted that graph of posts from all his last 5 games to "check his meta", and well that seems like a lot of effort (don't know if he did it in pre-game though). Plus the tone of some of the things he said and just a little gut feeling of the way he interacted with people made me think he was town at that point (and I get a little townie feels right now, although I don't know if I should take them into account or not). Hmm, the "plan" itself didn't seem scummy in my mind. It did spark some discussion, and to be honest I didn't really see the plan as "the most anti-town thing" in the way that I could see him posting it as town. His "gauging reactions" is null basically. The thing is that from that point onwards his play totally decays. He spends way too much time talking about the validity of his "plan", and spends way too much time just prodding Dropbear with the same stuff (Dropbear insta-voting Vivax). After that he doesn't seem to care in my mind. Responding to unrelated stuff he never follows (like telling marv about his "nice shit" on solstice, telling Risen to post his thoughts about what I said of him), having an "I don't care" attitude (when he posts thoughts about Milton and austin for instance, and the tone of his posts) and even having that attitude with his reads (like the ones in the post where he voted Dropbear) give me that feeling. The thing about his play decaying is that it didn't seem like he'd play like that at all once the game started. Once the game started and he started to have discussions about the setup, and the way he responded to people and stuff I had the feeling he'd keep up with that kind of play the whole game, which is why I didn't find him suspicious. But having his play decay so fast is worrying, since it makes it seem his "townie early D1" feel was just a façade. He seems to not care at all at the time of the lynch and after that (I've already posted about this on N1). He doesn't care about lynching Dropbear it seems, he's just there, asking some questions, blending in, doing shit and posting one-liners. That lack of effort and care about the lynch is damning. I'm trying to think if I'm wrong and he could have done that as town but I don't see many possibilities, specially because of this: That's the excuse he makes for his behaviour last day. That's no excuse to not care about the lynch. If he was actually at work refreshing the thread, it only means he doesn't have time to reread stuff (thread+filters), and think too much about things. That would actually indicate that his play should be more "reactive". As in, if he's constantly refreshing the thread, then his posts should be more of a reaction to what's posted each time he refreshes. As in, if someone votes Vivax or Dropbear he'd try to react to that, specially if the D1 lynch is at stake and he's just playing like I said he'd be playing. Even if he started to doubt Dropbear being scum (which he didn't show at all), at least he would have been more "anxious" and "nervous" considering the lynch wasn't decided until 3 minutes before the deadline. Any townie would be nervous by that point, specially if they were only paying attention to the thread by refreshing it constantly and not reading filters/etc. I can't see him doing that as town. Not only that, but his contributions from D2 are him either: -Just defending himself -Shitting on Mattchew The lack of effort is damning as hell. He doesn't even try. Hell he hasn't even posted at all for 24 hours or so I think. I find it more and more likely that he's scum knowing he was found and just not caring anymore. I get paranoid that he'd even act like this as town though, but hopefully is not the case. tl;dr: Talis is scum unless I'm paranoid about him playing like shit as town. About solstice I'm not really sure right now since him going against Risen seems legitimate for me, if I have time before leaving I'll reread him. There seems that a lot of people are treading to a modkill and that's not good. I'm leaving right at the deadline (I have to be in uni 30 minutes later), and I don't know if the flip will be "instantaneous" or not so I may not be around when tails flips, and I don't know when I'll come back (at most 3-4 hours from then, but I don't really know). + Show Spoiler + On July 17 2012 06:15 gonzaw wrote: That's what made me a little bit paranoid, but the thing is that there is almost no indication that he was frustrated. Take for instance a town VE going to be misslynched where he ragequits in frustration (basically every time he's town  ).He always makes an initial effort to change the lynch off him, he always tries to at least reason a little bit with the people accusing him; and if he finds his efforts futile, then he quits in frustration. To quit in frustration it means you actually have to try to be frustrated in the first place, at least by justifying it in-game (if he's frustrated because his cat died and he sees everybody accusing him it would be another thing, but he hasn't said anything about it so I'll disregard it). I can't see someone quitting in frustration if there is no reason to be so frustrated in the first place, and if the first thing you do is quit before even trying to change the tide of the game (i.e not getting lynched, or hoping to catch some scum even if you are) then you are not likely town at all since no townie would do that. Also: These don't look like posts from someone "ragequitting". He's asking people and supposedly expecting their answers, you don't "ragequit" before you even hear them or acknowledge them. I don't see him quitting as "frustrated" at all.....but I'm paranoid that he's busy or some shit and doesn't care or something. Hopefully (like I said) that's not the case, and there are other tiny bits that make me think talis is scum. These were posted like an hour before the deadline. IMO, it was already abundantly clear that talis was going to be lynched. So these large posts accusing talis feel kinda unnecessary. I could see them from a town gonzaw but they do feel like a bus. wishy/washiness after D1 (or at least changes his mind a hell of a lot) Honestly by D3 I'd expect a player like gonzaw to have said "Player X is very likely scum. I demand that we lynch him." But he has seemed uncharacteristically wishy/washy since N1. His filter is quite long, but here are some examples: wishy/washiness on Mattchew:+ Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 12:39 gonzaw wrote: This is just too much. I had him as townie in early game but I can't believe a town Mattchew would do something like this, unless he was somehow hospitalized right after he made that post or something. Damn, I really thought he was town wtf is going on? :/ On July 15 2012 09:50 gonzaw wrote: I expect some serious explanation from Mattchew. Like, I thought he was town but what you did made no fucking sense I'm contemplating lynching you just because of it (specially since you went AFK all night just to make a stupid drunk post as well). On July 16 2012 06:28 gonzaw wrote: I see Mattchew just came right off the bat with a case and a vote...and I don't know if I like that (I didn't see him explaining wtf he did last day). On July 16 2012 06:53 gonzaw wrote: I'm torn because his earlier posts did seem townie, but that behaviour of his strikes some doubt (specially if it wasn't for some outside reason, like getting his internet connection cut or something). I'll try to drop the subject before reading this thread and his case on talis; but this is basically exclusive since it's about his earlier behaviour. On July 16 2012 07:04 gonzaw wrote: I'm talking about the action itself and how it isn't a "town tell" coming from Mattchew. I said I'm reading the thread later (I'm not actually seriously accusing him right now, at least not before reading his other posts), I just want a (justified) explanation for that previous behaviour of his (you can't tell me it wasn't odd as fuck, everybody noticed it). I already talked about his posting before his "derp", although I skimmed his posts afterwards (from this D2) and they aren't that "townie" as his first ones. On July 16 2012 11:45 gonzaw wrote: About Mattchew: I may agree with his case on talis (need to filter talis first), but after that he doesn't really do a good job of explaining himself (about his behaviour or why he thinks I'm scum). I don't like how he's casting suspicion on me right now either, yet refuses to say anything about me or why he changed his town read on me. However, I could see town Mattchew just not caring about his D1 fluke and thinking I'm shitting up the thread about it (thus making him a little bit more suspicious of me), but those reasons above don't make me confident in thinking he's town at all, specially since I know Mattchew is capable of doing that "fluke" as scum just to skate by D1, whether other people find it scummy or not (he wouldn't really care as scum). This is why I'm torn on him, and why I wanted that explanation from him. I would also like an explanation on what he thinks of sciberbia ever since early-D1 and why he changed his mind on me (him not responding these strike me as suspicious as well, since again I can easily see scum Mattchew just not caring about it at this point). He had a good start that made me think he was town but some of his actions and behaviour made me doubt that (since scum Matthew could have just tried to appear pro-town on early-D1 like that) On July 17 2012 06:55 gonzaw wrote: Mattchew wtf those posts you make are so scummy at times. You park your vote on talis, go AFK for the rest of the day and now you show up all "confident" and still lacking words about anything else. On July 17 2012 07:01 gonzaw wrote: Damn I dunno Ehm...I think the time is over already, but I wouldn't like a NL but rather lynch Mattchew right now. On July 17 2012 07:04 gonzaw wrote: Mattchew D3 lynch I say (seemed like bus and you are scummy as fuck) on strongandbig: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 13:32 gonzaw wrote: About S&B: I want to lynch this guy tomorrow. ... Scummy as fuck. .. Like, he seems too scummy and nothing like his play in MTG (he was more active in discussion there, his posts made more sense, he wasn't this "trollish" and he didn't just post out of nowhere with random stuff?and didn't care about the current discussion, at least not when he was active). I could see him posting some stuff as town (like asking me about why I'm "not caring" about the setup, flip-flopping on his solstice read in that post seems like he was a townie changing his mind quickly, him backing off keiarth), but his attitude and content convince me otherwise. On July 15 2012 06:10 gonzaw wrote: Agh fuck this I can't shake that feeling from the other game and maybe you are genuinely frustrated at me with that vendetta of yours. If you are town please calm down and put more effort. On July 16 2012 06:28 gonzaw wrote: Skimming the thread, I got a weird feeling of solstice going against S&B, but that's maybe because I got a change of mind about S&B and wanted to give him a little break. on Risen+ Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 07:13 gonzaw wrote: Hmm, I'm getting the feeling you are town Risen, you are too invested in the game and really care about the lynch, and you are very active at it and act too "cool" around it. Don't know what Vivax was saying about you being scum, might need to reread. On July 14 2012 13:02 gonzaw wrote: It does seem like you are over-enthusiastic townie instead of scum (because scum rarely do what you did and try to take complete control of D1 and be active as shit), but hey!, after your LIII game I won't take any chances with you, and it's possible you'll do this as scum. On July 17 2012 07:04 gonzaw wrote: Mattchew D3 lynch I say (seemed like bus and you are scummy as fuck) Risen could be, he hasn't done shit. Maybe not so much on Risen. But it's at least fair to say he hasn't taken a hard stance one way or the other. He doesn't strongly accuse anyone at all until his "YOU ARE SCUM" post on talis an hour before the deadline. He seems neutralish on keirathi/miltonkram. He leans town on dropbear. He says he thinks s0Lstice is scum, but I don't see a whole lot of reasoning on s0Lstice. Reaction at beginning of D3 His reaction to the cop claim is kinda fishy. He asks, "Did you check me or not?", which sounds like a mafia talking. He also keeps his options open by disappearing for a little while (or maybe he is just busy). What makes me hesitate I looked through his entire mafia history, and I can't find any scum games that look as pro-town as this game. His D1 play still has a distinctly pro-town feel. Several things he has said are either towntells or the product of some devious scum play. His filter this game looks closest to TL Mafia LIII where he was town. IN CONCLUSION I think gonzaw is our best lynch today. It's reassuring that Mattchew and strongandbig seem to think so as well. Still, I'm not as sure about him as I was about talismania. I wouldn't be that surprised if he is town. So I'm going to withhold my vote for now. My next strongest scumread after gonzaw would probably be s0Lstice right now (maybe keirathi), but s0Lstice was cleared by Risen so I don't think I'd feel good about lynching him today. I think I'll end up voting gonzaw, but I want to see him make some posts first. @gonzaw Please make a case against your top scumread. During D2 you said you thought s0Lstice was scum but I don't see a case against him. Do you still think s0Lstice is scum? What about Mattchew? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 15 2012 07:58 austinmcc wrote: Gonzaw, you can't game the setup without knowing exactly how it works. WoF - No spreadsheet/list easily visible and I'm lazy. I think no sk. Believe he's tweaked system since then. Emergency - 5 vts, 3 scum, sk, 4 blues Movie mini - 6 vts, 3 scum, sk, 3 blues @Keirathi I'm not sure why, but apparently it's only the newbie mini towns that get screwed over by having no good blues. Mason + DT + JK is not out of the question balance-wise. I still don't see the need for us to go JK-hunting though, so I think we should put the issue to rest for now. | ||
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