EPT@gonzaw
What do you think of talis right now? Would you be happy lynching him today?
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
@gonzaw What do you think of talis right now? Would you be happy lynching him today? | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 16 2012 05:09 talismania wrote: so... what still makes you think I'm scum? @talis I still find you scummy for the same reasons I stated earlier. Your defense has made me feel a bit sympathetic, but several suspicious points remain: getting wrapped up with your plan (minor point) wishy/washy (this is a serious point) Scum are often wishy/washy and noncomittal. This leaves their options open. I found several posts where you display this behavior and it is suspicious. feeling so strongly about dropbear but doing so little to get him lynched (major point) not defending townreads I felt like you were at least leaning townie on strongandbig and mattchew based on what you said in your giant post: + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 01:32 talismania wrote: Mattchew: I dub mattchew "the poker-prodder". He keeps poking and prodding people. He's ultimately a null tell for me, as he is in every game I've ever seen him in. For a second I had him on my scummy list because of his "hey are you just actively lurking" post until now when I've re-read his filter and seen him poking at everyone. I am a bit surprised he's not voting for me - I think as scum he would have done that by now especially when he called me out like he did. strongandbig: dear god this is tiring to make lol no wonder no one ever follows my plans. Anyway. I think he's playing pretty freely. I think he was scum in space station? He was more uptight then. But apparently you didn't have any townreads at all (besides gonzaw + marv). This is suspicious. going with the flow You did not start the flow on dropbear and austin. Gonzaw did. You were also consistently friendly with gonzaw and marv. You even paid me a large compliment. On July 14 2012 01:32 talismania wrote: sciberbia: Sciberbia I am your biggest fan. I love the way you post. I have no idea what your alignment is but if everyone posted like you this game would be easy. If you think you can buy me over by complimenting my posting style, well, it almost worked. But please save your praise until after you flip red. I really don't have a lot more to say about talis. I'll let you know if my opinion of him changes, but I don't think it will. So I'll be turning my attention to defending other people that I don't want to lynch today. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I think Mattchew would be a pretty bad lynch given the current evidence. Here is what I have on him: posting style His early D1 posting style gives me a townie feel. I always find it townie when someone makes quick, short, insta-response posts, almost like an IRC chat. Shows they are unafraid and aren't manufacturing shit to say. very helpful (and imo good) reads I only just realized how much I like his reads: strong's first post is null -- good gonzaw is kinda null -- good defends vivax from marv for vivax's not-give-a-fuck style -- good finds scib suspicious -- I'll give him a pass for our first game together defends marv from gonzaw -- good defends strong from gonzaw -- good imo finds talis + keirathi suspicious D1 -- good keirathi is towntelling -- good decides to sheep marv on s0Lstice -- not a bad choice defends dropbear from gonzaw -- good imo convinced talis is scum -- excellent! The thing I like most is that not only do a lot of his reads line up with mine, but a lot of his reads were against-the-grain. Like how he defends strong, vivax, marv, dropbear against people like gonzaw and marv. Also he is voting talis who I really think is scum. can we please give him a pass for being afk? Seriously, I hate how everyone is jumping on him for leaving his vote on me. Everybody knows that a useless vote is useless. If somebody does something with full knowledge that it will be viewed as scummy, it shouldn't actually be seen as scummy. Do you think Mattchew was really sitting there scheming: "Heh heh heh. Town is trying to lynch one of us three scum: mattchew, talis, and gonzaw. How can I throw them off track? Oh I know! I'll leave my vote on sciberbia and mysteriously dissapear. Without my vote, there is no way they'll get a scum. Heh heh heh. I am the brilliant scum mastermind, Mattchew. And there's no way anyone will find my disapearence suspicious" It's just ridiculous. His disappearing is a busytell, not a scumtell. If Mattchew was scum, how hard would it have been to just hang around and sheep marv's vote? Not that hard. Being around for the lynch but not doing anything (i.e. talis) is more suspicious than not being there at all. gonzaw telling our vig to shoot Mattchew over this is one of the reasons I'm suspicious of gonzaw @mattchew It would help if you'd actually expalin where you went though... IN CONCLUSION Mattchew is a much worse lynch than talismania. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Don't you think Mattchew expected to get some serious flak for disappearing? I just don't get why scum Mattchew would intentionally draw suspicion to himself unless he had a legit reason for vanishing. Hence why I think it's just a busytell and not alignment indicative. I just don't see scum gonzaw expecting his useless vote to go unnoticed. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Can you look at the cases on talis and reread his filter? I want your opinion on him. I really think we should lynch him. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I'll post my thoughts on s&b next. Please post your most current thoughts on talis. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
OK as it turns out I don't actually have all that much to say on strongandbig. My overall feeling is that he doesn't seem like sneaky enough of a player to post the way he has and still be scum. A lot of his posts just feel townie to me. Here are some examples of townie vibe posts. Some of these would take a rather clever & sneaky mind to fabricate. I think it's more likely they are from the heart: + Show Spoiler + On July 12 2012 17:03 strongandbig wrote: So much for the lurking. I'm curious though - why do you accuse me of "actively" lurking? Is there a reason for you thinking I was "active" at the time of your post? Or was it just because you wanted to justify your vote on me, and "active" lurking is scummier than "normal" lurking, which is much closer to an accurate description? + Show Spoiler + On July 12 2012 23:35 strongandbig wrote: Sorry bro, but that's kind of the nature of the game I guess - any post could be made either by scum or by town? Do you have any suggestions as to how to be more townie? Meanwhile, I feel like there's something to be read in Gonzaw's post about Derpbear - I'm just not sure what. Dropbera accuses Gonzaw of tryharding overmuch, when he's just Gonzawing - then Gonzaw attacks him in a way that I'm pretty sure either exaggerates or straight up mischaracterizes dropper's tiny filter. hmmmmmmmmmmm...... I'll think some more about this later tonight. Gonzaw, have you and DropBurp ever played together before? + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 06:07 strongandbig wrote: Gee how did I guess Gonzaw was gonna post a ginormous wall of text calling me scum again. It's like, if Gonzaw doesn't call you scum, you're not doing things right. ... Christ gonzaw you're frustrating. ... Yeah so Gonzaw you want me to vote for someone? Well tough fuckin' titties. + Show Spoiler + On July 13 2012 19:23 strongandbig wrote: This post makes me doubt my scum read on keirathi a little bit. It came out quickly after drop bear's post, and I don't think that a scummy player's first reaction would be to cast doubt on someone defending him. Of course, it could be a clever gambit. It's not conclusive. + Show Spoiler + On July 14 2012 04:50 strongandbig wrote: so the vast majority of krathi's filter reads pretty scummy to me still, but him calling out derpberp for calling him town puts me in enough doubt that i dont really want to nuke him yet ##unvote ... as for solstice it's not like I think he's super townie or anything, but i'm not sold on him being scum; asking questions can imply your opinions sometimes actually wait that's a lie. i just read his filter from lvi and from noob17, and in both of those he asks questions a bunch but they feel more insightful than the ones he asks here, and he posts opinions interspersed with the questions. Plus if marv just caught a scum d1 it would mean hes probably town making my life easier (that's not true at all marv's meta is 100% to kill his teammates and we would learn nothing about him). ##unvote ##vote s0lstice umm, vivax consider yourself pressured or whatever. His whole thing about marv also seems townie to me. Either he legitametly believes that stuff, or it's just some gambit to appear pro-town. Frankly, I don't think it's a gambit. It's just too creative. @gonzaw A lot of your case on s&b is about how you find his reactions to your fos's scummy. I agree that he does seem to overreact a bit and I find this slightly suspicious. However, I think a lot of his reason for being suspicious of you is OMGUS-related, which I know can be a legit townie emotion. Especially if the person accusing you is someone you respect as a player. The one thing I really don't like about s&b is his ninja vote on vivax. He should have been more vocal before the lynch if he is townie. But I get the feeling that he wasn't all too sure of any of his reads (much like me) which could explain why he didn't post much. IN CONCLUSION A lot of strongandbig's posts feel townie to me. I do see a couple of things that seem suspicious, so I wouldn't be that surprised if s&b were scum, but I don't find the cases against him nearly convincing as the cases against talismania. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
CURRENT STANCES ON TALISMANIA Mattchew: convinced he is scum sciberbia: confident he is scum austinmcc: is now voting talis gonzaw: finds talis suspicious dropbear: finds talis dogdgy Risen: has no read s&b: says case on talis is decent. awaiting updated read s0Lstice: likes cases on talis. awaiting updated read miltonkram: was extremely suspicious D1. awaiting updated read keirathi: was suspicious on D1. awaiting updated read Basically, we have a bunch of people that would like to lynch talis, a few people that haven't given reads in a while but have found talis suspicious in the past, risen with no read, and absolutely nobody that actually thinks he is town. It's clear to me that talis is both -- very likely scum -- our best lynch choice for today Therefore, I think everybody should make analyzing talis a top priority. Give your opinion on if you haven't recently. If you think he is town, speak up. If you think he is scum, vote him already. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 16 2012 13:48 gonzaw wrote: Why is it you think me and talis are "linked as scumbuddies"? Other than that what "gut feeling" do you get about me? OK I wasn't really planning on talking about you until after seeing talis flip red, but I guess it's only fair that I explain my suspicions. First thing to understand is that I'm basically assuming talis is red at this point. It's like a done deal in my head. I had no interest in lynching you today mainly because 1) I find you significantly less suspicious than talis 2) I think I'd have a much harder time getting you lynched than talis Anyway, your posting from D1 obviously reads very pro-town. But I've heard from people like marv, mattchew, and austin that your scum play is hardly distinguisable from your town play. So your huge amount of effort, good cases, good leadership, etc, isn't really making me read you as any more townie. I'll read one of your scum games tomorrow and see if I can discern the difference. Now as to reasons I have to be suspicious of you. you remind me a lot of mafia Xatalos from NMM XV in a couple diffent ways 1) Despite your apparent efforts, you have not actually succeeded much in contributing to scum lynches. On D1, your top suspects were austinmcc, s&b, and keirathi, all of which now seem likely town or at least null. You allowed the lynch on Vivax. On D2, you didn't really lead the lynch on talis (who I think is scum). So while you act very pro-town, I feel like we could have achieved the same two lynches without you being in the game. The burden of being a good player I suppose is that I want/expect town gonzaw to be winning the game for us. 2) Both of us have been pro-town, active consensus townreads (for the mostpart). But I've had the feeling that you are subtly buddying me. Like, before now, we have hardly been in direct conversation at all. But, you give a gut town read on me, and seem to change your reads based on what I say. In particular on D1, you seemed to change your reads on vivax and austinmcc to fit more with mine. Now on D2, I feel like your reads on s&b, mattchew, and talis have changed to align with mine as well. I find this 2nd point a little extra suspicious because talis blatantly tried to befriend me. It's as if there was some "buddy sciberbia" scum plan going on. some minor points -- your contradiction about keirathi that I pointed out earlier -- I 100% see you shooting marv last night if you are scum -- you talk about how shitty D1 was a lot. I read this as slightly scummy because it promotes an atmosphere of pessimism -- I didn't like how much shit you gave Mattchew for disappearing. Feels like an easy way to get a townie killed and take no actual responsibility for it the link with talis This only has relavance if talis indeed flips scum. I had this shitting-my-pants-with-excitement moment last night when I realized how you and talis both misspelt Milton's name as 'Milkton'. The timing of how it happened suggested to me that you were talking about him in the mafia QT. I got the idea for this from hegeo in NMM XIV who accused two players of both misspelling my name 'sciberia'. He turned out to be wrong, but the timing of how it happens in this game is more suspicious to me. After this, I read your filters side by side, and several minor things gave me the feeling that you two were mafia together. Perhpas it was just confirmation bias idk. I'll consider your case much more thoroughly tomorrow (assuming talis flips scum). | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
@miltonkram/s&b Here they are, in brief: -- Talismania voted for dropbear, and I strongly believe talismania to be scum, so there is a point in dropbear's favor right there. -- first couple posts feel defiant and townie -- makes quick posts -- ninja'd by marv on the subject of vivax: seems genuine and townie -- I see what you mean about the suspicious conviction in vivax being scum, but I can also see this behavior from a townie -- his strong defense of miltonkram is a bit odd, but I don't see it as much of a scumtell -- surprise at almost getting lynched feels townie -- hasn't posted in like 14 hours (a bit disconcerting) -- I'm inclined to agree with gonzaw about him not being able to follow his own advice. I don't really see that as a scumtell. Perhaps a hypocrite tell. But that is all. My view on him hasn't changed all that much since yesterday. A few things I see as townie. A couple things a bit suspicious. My scumread on talis is making me lean townie on dropbear. I don't think you've posted since my case on talis but I'm optimistic that you'll agree with me. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
Good night. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
On July 16 2012 17:28 strongandbig wrote: Pre-edit: I see that scibebia posted about dropbear while I was writing this - I want to ask, why is his being a "consensus lynch target" a good thing? That would indicate to me that either he's town, or his scum buddies are bussing him and we won't gain as much info from his lynch. Note that I'm not saying that because there is consensus, it means he's town and we shouldn't lynch him; people sometimes do say that but I think it's pretty incorrect. However, scberbia I'm asking you specifically, what does his being a "consensus lynch target" mean and why do you say it there? what "consensus lynch target means" It means that not only do I think he is scum, but pretty much everybody thinks he is scum. Since the consensus is that he is scum, it makes sense to lynch him. why I said it there 1) To point out that everyone is pretty much agreed on lynching talis 2) To make sure people realize that talis is probably getting lynched today, and therefore they should make giving their thoughts on him a priority | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I'm at work right now so don't have time to go into too much detail. In short, I was leaning town on him after D1, but I agree that his D2 play is suspicious. I'll reconsider the case against him tonight. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
If you recall, I correctly read vivax as townie in XV. Like marv said on D1, vivax actually seemed a bit calm this game compared to what I remembered of him. I compared the filters from XV, this game, and one game where he was scum in between. His filter this game looked nothing like his scum filter, but I figured he might've simply learned from his mistakes. His filter this game didn't seem quite like town vivax either, hence why I was comfortable lynching him. I think your opinion of me might change after we see talis flip scum. The fact that he hasn't posted in like 22 hours even with mounting suspicion against him pretty much confirms him as scum imo. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I am completely unbothered by the fact that there is no resistance to this lynch. Clearly, all the townies in this game (except maybe miltonkram) find talis quite suspicious. This is true regardless of whether talis is actually scum or not. So the only thing I could possibly find disconcerting is that scum aren't doing anything to save him. But this really doesn't bother me. Most players in this game are quite good and I don't see scum giving themselves away that easily by defending a scumbuddy (a la heist or roflwaffles). Additionally, I suspect gonzaw to be scum-buddies with talis and scum gonzaw had no choice but to bus talis seeing he voiced suspicions of talis during N1. Obviously talis thinks his plan is good because he apparently proposes it every game. But that doesn't stop him from proposing it as scum too. As I said before, I find all his talk about the plan as slightly suspicious because he can use it as an excuse to talk but not actually contribute. This is only a minor point against him, anyway, and I certainly would not be pushing for his lynch off this alone. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I don't really have time to write a suitable response from work. I'll respond to your post after I get home around 6:30. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
I'd be lying if I said I don't have any doubts at all, but on top of the cases against him (which I think are really good), consider that he has been MIA for 24 hours now. Clearly he is convinced that he is going to be lynched. But if he were town, he'd still post reads, contribute, etc. His complete silence is quite damning imo. | ||
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sciberbia
United States1359 Posts
you and s0Lstice are causing me some serious stress right now! Honestly, I think he could see the writing on the wall. If you KNOW you are going to be lynched correct scum response: say nothing at all correct town response: make cases, knowing that they will be helpful to town when you flip green | ||
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