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On July 25 2012 09:38 marvellosity wrote: Don't tell me you didn't know something was coming Probe, he's been needling you for a little while now
Yeah but it is VE. I mean, like I said, I like his scepticism. No reason to completely trust anyone.
Anyway, I am happy to be responsible for the lynch tomorrow.
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On July 25 2012 09:40 VisceraEyes wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2012 09:38 Probulous wrote: I have a very simple explanantion for not noticing your crumb.
Who would expect two kingmakers???
Did you VE? Considering I've been considering the probability of mirrored scum to town Power-roles, then yeah...I was pretty much expecting a second kingmaker.
That's a hella powerful scum role. It removes town only real power. I highly doubt that scum minions have no idea who their managment or brethren are so giving them a kingmaker role screws over town majorly. It was partly why I was so confident in proving my alignment, I mean a scum kingmaker is pretty ridiculous.
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So essentially my actions are town, everything I have done is town but because you have the same role I am scum?
I give you Kurumi and RoL as counter evidence. Yes not exactly the same role but certainly very similar and no similar role for scum.
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Yeah alright VE. I completely disagree but arguing isn't going to get us anywhere.
Tomorrow, MZ dies.
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On July 25 2012 09:51 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2012 09:48 VisceraEyes wrote:On July 25 2012 09:47 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On July 25 2012 09:39 VisceraEyes wrote: Then why was BH a better lynch than Kurumi D1? And why was Palmar the "obvious" lynch D3 considering your "super-read" on rasta? Nope, not buying it MZ. I appreciate the effort of your defense though, it's more than I can say for others in your position. No, now you're being thick. I was out most of the latter part of d1 (hence my late vote) I dealt with the situation in the thread when I got there. Not only that, but my read on rastaban d1 was still in it's infancy, I didn't even post a proper case until d2. Palmar was obvious because of his interactions with foolishness like I said, also his all around shitty play didn't help at all. I don't think I ever used the phrase "super-read" lol, I do think rastaban is scum but as I said previously, our lynches have all been used on people who I would consider practically confirmed scum due to circumstances in the thread. Regarding rastaban, I've been the only one on him, while I trust my analysis skills, I'm not going to try and lynch someone on my analysis over someone who's all but claimed scum (kurumi) or was just implicated by the flipped scum CEO (palmar). Then I'm sure you have nothing to worry about MZ. What I am concerned about is someone pulling a lone ranger act and shooting me without warning.
I won't do that. Right now I am convinced but I will obviously go back an recheck my analysis. I am not stupid.
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Sick Burn 
Speaking of when is deadline? I thought it was an hour ago
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EXCELLENT!
BTW thanks VE! I am now officially a king.
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VE, why did you give the power to me and not supersoft?
I know I said I wouldn't argue but I really cannot understand your logic and this is hella important.
- You believe there are scum opposite to most roles, despite that only happening once and us having proof that is not the case for another role (why would scum save a nuke? They risk dying and nothing stops them as far as we know).
- You are a kingmaker and so based on your belief you decide that the other kingmaker must be scum. (Logical)
- Then you give your lynch to that kingmaker who you believe is scum (Illogical)
By your logic I should lynch you. I know I am town, if the mirror of my role is scum, then I must lynch you.
So either you don't believe there are mirror roles in which case you have been lying and discrediting me for no reason, or you believe there are mirror roles and therefore I am scum. If that is the case then you gave scum a free day vig.
Alternatively you don't know my alignment and are planning on using my choice to judge me. This seems the most reasonable (and is what you said) but then why suggest I am scum? You could have just given me the role and let me do my business. Then you judge me just the same, this suggestion that I am mafia makes your choice illogical.
I chose you because you were my strongest town read and I agreed with your reads. It's that simple. The fruit was born when you lynched Blazinghand. To be honest I was expecting you to choose Foolishness but he died before you could. It doesn't matter though. The whole point of the role is that you trust the person with a lynch. But you go out of your way to make it clear you don't trust me. Why?
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Ok, I think I get it now. You are basically trading one for one (in your mind at least). Given we have three scum dead that isn't a bad call. The only problem you have is there is no incentive for me (if I was scum) to not lynch a scummy looking townie. Or rather, avoid the scum I know. Given the number of targets we have it would be easy enough to justify.
Curve ball accepted. I assume you want me to pick someone at least a little controversial, otherwise how do you get a read on me right?
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Fuck it
## lynch layabout
Do you want reasons or are you just happy to let me take the responsibility for his flip?
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Well lynching MZ or Zealos could be passed off as sheeping town.
Honestly, rereading MZ's filter, it looks better than I thought it did. He pushed BH hard until he was lynched and has been generally active. His case against rastaban is the worst part of his filter though, it is almost like he decided to follow my advice from Day 1 and just tunnel someone. His latest stuff is better so hopefully he will improve.
Zealos was another option but I have a problem with outright lynching him. Why would he remove the first line from the sandroba PM? He knew sandroba had the original so he knew he would be called out on it. It is a dumb move which reflects the rest of his game. Does that make him scum? I will need convincing.
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On July 25 2012 13:04 VisceraEyes wrote: No, we don't do things for reasons here Prob. *sigh*
I'm happy to let you take responsibility for your actions. If you choose to not give reasoning that's your deal.
I think layabout was a decent choice, though there are others I'd have chosen first.
Hey you put me in thsi position.
Think about it, if I wrote up a huge post explaining my reasons scum would use it to say I am setting up excuses for when he flips town. He is dying anyway, so what use does the post provide? It just allows scum to cast doubt on me.
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VE, take a breath and think about how this game has unravelled. Your vote makes no sense.
The post you quote is focused on Palmar, not MZ. Yes, I didn't look over MZ last night. We have a whole day and I certainly didn't expect to die. I was sure that Syllo or Supersoft were next.
The reason I didn't just straight up pull the trigger is because I CAN BE WRONG! Geez, I went back and reread and took my time and now that makes me scum? I don't have any reads that are 100% like yesterday. Having a day vig is a big responsibility so I wanted to be sure.
Tell me this VE, if I had lynched MZ or Zealos, could you not point out that most of town wanted that? It is an easy decision with no real ramifications because I could legitiamtely blame everyone else as well. You gave me this to check my alignment, well I gave you something to think about. You're being illogical because I am not behaving how you expect me too. Instead of jumping to conclusions, take a break and think clearly.
I never gave reasons for lynching laya, I gave reasons for not lynching MZ or Zealos because that is what you expected me to do. You expected a MZ or Zealos lynch so I explained why I chose not to lynch them. I will write up my case now because clearly that is what you want.
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My first doubts about layabout came from Bugs with this post.
On July 17 2012 10:04 wherebugsgo wrote:Shit that makes layabout scummy:Read his filter first, it's not long at all. Keep that in mind for a second. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349678&user=233798He does nothing but shed doubt on sandro's claim. He instantly disbelieves it without considering other evidence. He knows the caliber of sandro's town play yet he doesn't even acknowledge the possibility that sandro could be town. In addition he's stayed toward the back of the discussion, as he does when he is scum. When he is town he is out in front if he thinks people are being stupid. He will kick and scream and call people retarded if they're doing something he disagrees with. Clearly he disagrees with us sheeping sandro on his catch of Kurumi (otherwise why else would he shed doubt on it?) but notice that he actually doesn't do anything to stop the wagon. i.e. his doubt is unfounded and he wants to undermine sandro without taking heat for the action itself. Scum tactic.
Which I expanded upon here
On July 17 2012 15:13 Probulous wrote:Thanks for that Gonzaw. About layabout Show nested quote +I don't think laya was casting doubt on the claim but rather trying to get an answer from sandro (on why he wasted his ability). Here is the entirety of layabouts filter Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 06:32 layabout wrote: If sandroba can message people why did he reveal his power after outing a single player that he could have pushed without revealing his power? Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 07:00 layabout wrote: Sandro why did you claim that you could trick mafia into revealing themselves when you had only tricked one player? PSA: No talking to kurumi and spamming up the thread! Firstly, he assumes Sandro can send more than one message per day, or alternatively that he will live overnight. Given he has outed a scum that is highly unlikely. We all know Sandro is a deadly when on form so I would be surprised if he lives till tomorrow (he even stated as much). More damning though is that layabout didn't even bother to follow up on his question. I can understand forgetting a question here and there (it's a busy thread) but his only contribution this whole game has been to question the validity of Sandro's claim. It serves no purpose, especially that Kurumi has confirmed Sandro's claim. In addition, bugs correctly pointed out that layabout is very vocal when he is town. I played with him in Werewolves and he was killed early because he was way too calm and clear. He lurked a lot in my other game with him when we were both mafia (Wiggles Mini II). There isn't much to go on but what is there is pretty bad. Note that his lurking is indicative of his alignment. He is not normally a lurker unless he rolls scum. This post has already been pointed out by Syllo but it is worth rementioning
On July 23 2012 09:32 layabout wrote:I still think we should lynch zealos. >>CLICK<< ##vote zealosI think it's worth bearing in mind that both Palmar and Foolishness expressed the opinion that syllogism is mafia and continued to do so. A large part of why syllogism was not a lynch candidate early on was that the players that know him well can easily tell his alignment after a few days. Why are people voting for Palmar? I haven't seen anything concrete. If we leave the Palmar defense for now, why post this? At this point Foolishness had flipped so his read can be discounted as invalid. We had presented evidence against Palmar to which he disagreed but there is obviously doubt about Foolishness' alignment. The fact that laya casts doubt on Syllo based on two scum's cases is atrocious. He has no reason to believe they have more knowledge about Syllo than we do, and more importantly that they would be genuine in their read given they are scum. Like who seriously puts stock into flipped mafia's cases, especially after night 1? It just serves to cast doubt on Syllo for no reason.
Anyway he come out hard defending Palmar here. Saying there is no evidence. He goes back and forth with Syllo continuously stating that there is no case against Palmar. When I point out how stupid this is he responds with this
On July 23 2012 10:13 layabout wrote:Show nested quote +On July 23 2012 10:07 Probulous wrote:On July 23 2012 10:05 syllogism wrote: I need to go, Probulous/VE/Katina push Palmar while I'm gone thanks. Anyone who is town has to vote Palmar today. Feel free to lynch me if he doesn't flip mafia.  I find it hilarious that two people who have lurked all game are defending Palmar with no evidence. They haven't even bothered to read the thread and contradict the cases against him. The evidence is there, we have pointed it out but suddenly he is town. This is the first day that there has been time and reason to debate the lynch target. There are many reasons to lynch zealos and we should. Where are these cases against Palmar that you speak of? All i see is aggressive pushing and no reasoning and it stinks.
I shake my head and realise he won't read the thread so I post some stuff. Twice.
On July 23 2012 10:35 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On July 16 2012 21:19 Palmar wrote: This is of course assuming the analyst isn't terrible, but I'm not. He obviously believes he is an amazing analyst so where is his analysis, let's take a look. In response to this Show nested quote +On July 16 2012 22:07 sandroba wrote: Right I read through everything. I want to kill blazinghand. Smart people that disagree please post reasons! So wrong on both accounts here. What about this Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 02:17 Palmar wrote: I agree with BlazingHand let's kill syllogism. Nice catch supersoft. Probably wrong as well. So next is MZ who could be scum, let's see the case Show nested quote +On July 17 2012 22:49 Palmar wrote: MZ is one of my stronger scum suspicions. The main reason is the fact that he spent a lot of time chasing after opinions from me.
Now, asking people questions is generally good, but MZ has played with me enough times to understand that if I'm not going to answer something, I just don't. Nothing he can do can change that. If I'm intent on trolling, I will troll, and you can't do shit about it. He should be familiar with my personality now, so while someone like syllo just assumed I was trolling and ignored the issue, MZ kept harping on about getting me to respond.
Why would he do this? Not only is it an excellent way to contribute without ever risking contributing anything, because he was never going to get an answer for me, it's also a good set up for a later attack on me. Not a normal palmar case. Where is the vehemence and fire and passion. Note how passive the bolded is. This is a case meant to fail. + Show Spoiler [Passive pushes for MZ lynch] +On July 17 2012 23:26 Palmar wrote: But between lynching kurumi, and preferably killing MZ too, you have some time if you're town. On July 18 2012 00:52 Palmar wrote: I have no problem with kurumi nuking rol as I already explained. And I don't think BH will flip scum. If you want to lynch someone else, MZ would be my first choice. On July 18 2012 05:32 Palmar wrote: I also have no intention of lynching you right now, I want to lynch Kurumi, MZ, maybe gonzaw. I can only kill one guy a day On July 18 2012 05:35 Palmar wrote: regarding GGQ, he's super lurky when he's scum, but he kinda is as town too. It's not a bad call to lynch him based on his day 1 posting right now, but I'd prefer MZ On July 18 2012 07:35 Palmar wrote: Can we kill MZ instead pls? On July 18 2012 07:43 Palmar wrote: for emphasis ##Vote Meapak Then I post my initial case on Gonzaw and suddenly Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 09:37 Palmar wrote: gonzaw is scum, you are correct. one million dollars for you bro. Show nested quote +On July 18 2012 22:42 Palmar wrote: gonzaw is still 100% scum. So is meapak, and I'm pretty sure by now foolishness is one too. Show nested quote +On July 22 2012 00:47 Palmar wrote: if you can shoot tonight kill foolishness, syllo, katina, BM, zealos etc Palmar is known for his analysis which he clearly states in the early game. He is then wrong about Sandroba and BH straight away. Then when he pushes MZ he posts a case that is weak as shit and then never actually pushes it. He even pleads for us to vote MZ but never forces the issue, despite it being clear that we were looking for targets. His language is passive and nonconfrontational. Then when I post my case on Gonzaw suddenly Gonzaw is the flavour of the month and not MZ, despite his constant pleas to vote off MZ. Ok, maybe Gonzw was a more feasible lynch but why is his shoot to kill list devoid of his target he was pushing all Day 1? I'll tell you why because he realised that MZ is probably the other Executive.
To which I get no response. In fact he hasn't bothered to comment on anything since then. Why? Because his only reason for defending Palmar evaporated into thin air.
TLDR: layabout irrationally cast doubt on both Sandroba and Syllo. Then he defended Palmar because "there were no cases against him" but when evidence was presented he refused to comment on them. He is lurking like he does when he is scum.
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On July 25 2012 13:53 supersoft wrote: GJ VE! i told you guys to give this power to me and i'll lynch MZ. GJ! if you have the choice between
1) someone who shot the mafia CEO n2, catched the other scumvet AND who is listing the guy you want to get killed on his scumlist ALL game long
2) someone who gave you power for no real reason
you manage to chose the second guy! ESPECIALLY after a night like this!!! no death means that something is wrong in the scumteam! now we have this situation. we cant be sure about probulus anymore because he decided to do unexpected stuff
Well I asked him to explain why he never gave it you but he didn't. Do you think laya is scum?
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On July 24 2012 22:09 supersoft wrote: first stage suspects: sloosh, meapak, gonzaw
second stage suspects: zealos, layabout, austin
third stage suspects: rastaban, Mattchew, marvellosity, Q-bert-Z
Given he is in your list of scum (sure second tier but he certainly is there) I don't see what your problem is with my choice?
VE would have had to have chosen who gets the crown last night. So the no death thing doesn't come into it. I agree you were a better choice (well kind of, I know I am town so he got that part right) but I don't see why you think I am scum. Doing "unexpected" things that fit with your reads, shouldn't impact on your read of me.
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I PM'd them. BH's flip came instantly so I expect this to happen soon.
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On July 25 2012 14:25 supersoft wrote:hah! This is finally something I completely support! :-D Anyways I have a problem with the night. Why didn't anyone die?
I'm assuming someone was protected. Bugs dying night 1 could be explained by the medic protecting Sandro. Why he wasn't protected night 2 is a mystery though. If there was a vet around I would have expected a claim. Alternatively maybe there is a scum mechanic which can save shots for later? Or maybe they shot a bullet proof third party role...
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Happy VE
ROFl I am beast mode this game
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Hmm interesting.
A dud nuke for scum, maybe there might be a scum nuke out there after all. But why haven't scum used it yet?
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