EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XX - Page 8
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 07:23 Evulrabbitz wrote: Well at least we are on the same page then. I fail to see how you can find that post beneficial but regardless, I just wanted to know if you thought I called you post bullshit or you thought I called Lazer's bullshit Ok good - I'll clear up my thoughts on his post. Lazer brings up some pretty good/suspicious points about YourHarry's post: 1) There's no reason a townie should ever discourage analysis EVER. Even if his justiciation was to push the Bass lynch, this is still incredibly suspicious. 2) Lazer attacks YourHarry's logic about Bass - as previously stated, lynching Bass solely on his guilty check, especially in light of his pro-town behavior - is just stuipd. There's even more in that post that Lazer didn't even mention, but him calling attention to a suspicious post is far from "bullshit." | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 07:27 YourHarry wrote: --SNIP-- Before I continue to respond to everyone's reply, I want to ask you one thing. You guys are saying that 50% does not matter. The probability does not matter. Lazer is arguing that this is "not math". What if there were 3 scums left and 1 miller left? And detective's "guilty" report implied 75% chance of Bass flipping scum. Would you still ignore what implications of detective's finding? What if it was 90%? Somehow, I am afraid that I will continue to hear lazer argue that "90% doesn't matter. we should still find someone who is scummy". A player can be scummy for many reasons. Scuminess encrypted in his responses is what you guys are going after. But a player can also be scummy because he received a "guilty" report from the detective. If someone has behaving the exact opposite of scummy, I'm not going to vote him/her, simple. Throwing out unrealistic percentages does nothing to justify Bass's Lynch. You want to lynch Bass? Come up with a case against him. Find something suspicious, build a case, and we'll listen to you. If you can't, there's no way in hell I'll lynch him. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 07:59 Evulrabbitz wrote: I will try to build a case against BassInSpace when I finished this episode of American Dad. Take said upcoming case as you will. I will try my hardest not to mislead in any way, but it is hard to account for all aspects so please do dissect it. Not that expect anything else, but still. Thank-you. That's all I wanted - I look forward to reading it! =) | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 08:20 YourHarry wrote: Lazer and hapha. Why would I want to kill Bass now, if I am scum. I ask you this again. There is no reason. Scum would want to push a mislynch, especially of a player with a very pro-town history. Scum's best hope is to create an end-game scenario with a bunch of suspicious people. On July 12 2012 08:06 YourHarry wrote: In the absence of miller, detective's "guilty" report would be taken as fact. Because this is 100%. Regardless how townie this player may have acted. Because there is miller, it is now 50% true. If we can find scums better than 50% of the time, then we should ignore this. However, if our ability to find scum is significantly lower than 50%, the detective report should override our decisions on who we think are scum. Whether we can find scum more than 50% of the time could be up for an argument. The rest, really, is not. Again, "50%" is not the proper way to look at this. Based on Bass's play so far, I put the chance of him being mafia at far below 50%. If Evul checked Mackin or you and either of you turned up red, I'd put the probability of either of you being mafia at above 50% and push for your lynches. I'm curious - if Evul checked me last night and I turned up red, would you vote for me? Would you believe that I had a 50% chance of being mafia despite D1 lynch actions? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 08:37 YourHarry wrote: If Evul checked you last night and you turned up red, then yes I would vote for you still. Even if I didn't think you were particularly scummy until that point, I will have to put my faith in the probability - because I don't trust my read as much as a fact telling me you are about 50% scum. And it is true. The probability is not exactly 50%. The number should be adjusted based on our "reads" but again our reads should be able to change that number too much, unless there is like overwhelming evidence. If reads can change the number, why don't we try to make that number a bit more accurate then? Why don't you dig through Bass's filter and see if we can make this a bit more accurate? This is the last I'll say on the subject of the whole 50% thing - you're putting blind faith in probability. This is a game of analysis, not coinflips. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Just a quick point before I start writing a formal reply: He finishes his post saying that Hapa's point and Hapa's meta case (remember this) make his vote swing in the favor of Hopeless rather than TMG or Zen, the two he previously made cases against. The exact quote from Bass's post is: "However, the points raised by hapahauli combined with the meta analysis of hopeless is going to mean that I put my vote on him for now, rather than zen man or TGM." You take him out of context here - he's pretty consistent with his view. [Quote]The next post on line Is not really that suspicious other than he says he doesn't really like meta, yet his decision to vote for Hopeless was partially based on meta. The rest of this post can be seen as suspicious, but that will ultimately lead to too much WIFOM so I won't go there(E.g he encourages Jinglehell to make a good basis for defense to Hopeless which he then can support).[/Quote] You take him out of context again. He's simply questioning Jingle's meta analysis of Hopeless, and is not commenting on my own. Overall, his view on my case on Hopeless is quite consistent - he's not too fond of meta analysis but feels that it adds to the case and his major suspicions (the 3 points he mentions). My first overall thoughts on your case is that you try to create a story to justify him being mafia rather than looking for actions that make him mafia - most of the actions you call suspicious can also be interpreted as very pro town. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 11:32 Evulrabbitz wrote: For the first "take him out of context" I don't actually see how I do that. In the direct quote he says that your arguments and the meta case (I mentioned your meta case, not just the meta case. However that doesn't make a difference) made his vote switch into favour of hopeless rather than TMG of Zen. That is exactly what I said. Please elaborate. "the points raised by hapahauli combined with the meta analysis of hopeless" I mean that this above statement is constitent with his viewpoints. His overall view is:he dosn't like meta analysis alone, and treats meta arguments it as something that strengthens the other poitns of my argument. The above quote fits with that viewpoint perfectly, as do all his other quotes. For the second one. I said in the post that the only think suspicious is that he questions the use of meta. The other part I said was too much WIFOM to build a case on. I point out the fact he clearly says he dislikes the use of meta analysis. You seem to think that this was a comment only regarding Jingle's meta analysis. In that case I don't see how he can dislike Jingle's meta analysis but support yours. Here's the full post (the post itself is addressed to JingleHell): "But as it stands now, it comes down to your meta analysis of hopeless vs his scummy posting in this actual thread. I value finding scummy posting as a scum hunting tool far more than I value meta. You don't think the points brought up by Hapahauli paint Hopeless in a bad light? And just as an aside, I'm not saying I think you're scum. I just want to understand why you think your meta analysis (which you admit yourself is an issue because he hasn't flipped in the other game) is more valuable than actual posts in this thread." In Jingle's post (which he replies to), Jingle mentions an unclear meta argument based on a game of Hopeless that hasn't finished yet. He's very clear about his intentions, "your meta analysis of hopeless vs his scummy posting[/b]" - he finds Jingle's unclear meta argument (based on a game that hasn't finished) as bad. Nowhere does it address my meta argument or talk about his views on meta arguments as a whole. As I continue to read through your arugment and Bass's filter, I think he's very consistent on his view on my case, and I haven't found anything to suggest otherwise. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
1) BassinSpace contradicts himself in agreeing with my case - I disagree and I think you take him out of context in your argument. He appears very consistent throughout, initially stating 3 points of my argument that he likes and saying he's not a huge fan of meta but accepts it as another component of my case to strengthen it. 2) BassinSpace "juggles" suspicion - I like this point a bit more, but I think its overblown. He's pretty consistent on the Hopeless lynch in the beginning as well as his suspicions on Mackin. He does have a habit of mentioning multiple people in a single post, but given that he lives in a different timezone than the other active posters, he has very few opportunities to talk with people directly and has to address all his questions/concerns in single posts. 3) BassinSpace is suspicious of Mackin, but still hasn't started a case against him - this is a valid point, and I think this justifies an explanation from Bass. This isn't necessarily a 100% scum read though, and he applies pressure on Mackin quite consistently. It doesn't seem very scummy to try and extract information out of a lurker/low-postcount player. Overall, I think this case brings up some slight suspicions, but that's about it. A lot of this can be interpreted as townie play, and he's far from the most suspicious person in the game right now. If it weren't for your red check, we probably wouldn't even be analyzing his case. Your main points against him are his lack of decisiveness against players and raising suspicions, however these issues Mackin's filter are far worse. Furthermore, he still has one very pro-town thing going from him: his D1 voting pattern, voting for Hopeless and pushing his case. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 14:29 YourHarry wrote: --SNIP-- I will force myself to come up with a case against Bass, and hopefully I can convince even myself that Bass is "definitely" scum. I hope this is sarcastic. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 14:32 YourHarry wrote: Scum Harry would LOVE a mislynch, OF COURSE. But scum Harry would MUCH MUCH MORE PREFER A LYNCH of an UNCONFIRMED TOWNIE. WAY WAY MORE THAN LYNCH OF BASS, A POSSIBLE SCUM/MILLER. Harry. There's one scum left. If you are scum, you know he's innocent, therefore you push for a mislynch. Its pretty basic. I really can't follow you here... | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 14:43 YourHarry wrote: Yes, say I am scum. I know he is innocent. But it's much better to have a guy who is "known" to run red later in the day rather than having him get mislynched an flip town. Do you think scum Harry would want Bass on Day 5 with me or not? I still don't get it. Scum want non-scum dead. Bass is an easy bandwagon target for scum, since it allows them an opportunity to lynch someone who's acted pro town with little or no analysis. The sooner they get rid of him the better. I will agree with your vote on Mackin though. He hasn't been speaking at all (lurking), he really only posts when he's called out/asked to (keeping the town on a need-to-know basis), and his posts have been all summary/finger-points. ##Unvote YourHarry ##Vote Mackin | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 15:18 YourHarry wrote: Sick feeling. Sum Haph would want me, Bass, and Haph in LYLO. I assume you meant scum Hapa? Well scum hapa wouldn't have crucified hopeless D1 =P | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Mackin's D1 Voting Pattern/Defense of Hopeless1der: Mackin immediately comes to the aid of Hopeless when he starts coming under fire. His first substantial post is right after Hopeless addresses my FOS. On July 06 2012 06:06 Mackin wrote: That makes alot of sense to me Hopeless and I totally agree. Bandwagoning is giving no real thought to the situation whereas when there is a clear reason for siding with someone such as terrible posts, I'm all for agreeing with them and I don't see it as "Bandwagoning" Hapa what you said makes no sense to me. If I have made crappy posts, why wouldn't you side with Hopeless? It's hardly bandwagoning if you think you have anything to question me on. I have no inhibition to post and anyone who does have inhibition when people are stacking against them clearly has something to hide. Mackin defends Hopeless very passively when I first ask him for thoughts on his case. He tries to justify his actions in an unsure/unconfident tone rather than taking a strong opinion either way. @Hapa: Your case on Hopeless1der: I don't know what to think here. It's like Hopeless is really trying to build a case against you, he builds up quite alot in the first post and when you make your stance clear in your response, his response is to back down immediately. Maybe he just wanted to question you and test the water a bit? I don't think he's trying to genuinely full on attack and point the FoS here. I don't know why he starts going on about Release, if I was thinking more suspiciously of him, he maybe just wanted the conversation to change quickly and forget about building a case on you. Mackin then casts a vote for YourHarry and is done with D1. Mackin's Fingerpointing/Spreading Suspicion Mackin is fond of making lists of all the players and giving his thoughts of all of them. In all of these lists, he always casts slight suspicion on every single player, and will never outright declare someone extremely suspicious. The two posts linked below make him look very bad - he tries to be non-confrontational while casting suspicion on every single player. The only time he'll ever declare someone pro-town is if they're confirmed (as a result of the Blue roleclaims). http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=25#496 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=32#622 Furthermore, he misrepresents his posting. The above lists are not forceful or decisive, yet he says this earlier in the game: On July 06 2012 06:06 Mackin wrote: Hapa what you said makes no sense to me. If I have made crappy posts, why wouldn't you side with Hopeless? It's hardly bandwagoning if you think you have anything to question me on. I have no inhibition to post and anyone who does have inhibition when people are stacking against them clearly has something to hide. Mackin is anything but uninhibited when he posts. He's incredibly non-confrontational and tries to point suspicion at many players with his "lists." Mackin's "Lurkiness" Mackin doesn't post often - he didn't post the entire N1 cycle! Furthermore, Mackin will rarely post unless directly addressed/prompted to. This is consistent with Mafia keeping the town on a need-to-know basis. I found the timing of this next post funny: On July 08 2012 07:23 Mackin wrote: Sorry I haven't posted I have had an unbelievable 24 hours IRL. Not getting into it but basically sorry I missed critical point of D1. I'm just reading through now and thoughts will be posted very soon! While I don't mean to belittle his IRL issues, he posted this 4 minutes after I called him out for not posting. At the time of this post, he's posted once in D3, excusing himself for not posting in N2. Based on his interactions with Hopeless, his fingerpointing/indecisive posting, and his unwillingness to post, Mackin is my top Mafia suspect. ##Vote Mackin | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 12 2012 22:25 The_Zen_Man wrote: Correct me if i am wrong, but is there not one miller and one scum that show red for dt check. Therefore, there has to be a 50% chance for him being scum. Analysis is good, but it does not increace or decreace the percentage in any way. This means that there is a 50% chance for him being scum, not "way below" that, as the monkey above me stated. It is not a 50/50 chance! *Foaming at the mouth* Calling it 50/50 is a vast oversimplification of things, especially if he's acting pro town. He's either 100% mafia, or 100% miller. Based on his pro-town actions, what do you think is more likely? | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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