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Its also worth noting that YourHarry's posts are almost exclusively on blues and and blue actions post-Hopeless lynch. His only analysis is a post casting suspicion on all players who have voted for LazerMonkey (which has been proven false at this point). Finally, I'm very suspicious of this post, where he misrepresents his actions on D1 voting to defend himself and jump on the JingleHell D2 lynch bandwagon:
On July 07 2012 14:57 YourHarry wrote:
I am OK with JingleHell lynch day2. After my initial quick vote on Hopeless beginning of day1, JingleHell quickly tried to reverse the bandwagon against me. He also belongs to the possible scum list, outlined in my previous post.
LINK
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EBWOP: (AGAIN, sorry T_T)
In regards to the quote above, YourHarry did quickvote Hopeless, but ignores the fact that he jumped off the bandwagon after some players jumped on Lazer. Read the whole story of events in my YourHarry voting timeline.
FOS: YourHarry
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One of my main suspicions of you is that you haven't provided any substantial analysis on a player as of yet. You've posted plenty on blues, but the only bit of analysis you have is the "list of suspects based on voting for Lazer" post, which was proven wrong.
I also have some questions regarding the end of your defense.
On July 10 2012 14:41 YourHarry wrote:
--SNIP--
Here are some reasons you should think I am probably a town:
- I prevented from medic from claiming, initially. Right now, actually, I don't think medic claiming makes much of a difference, but the fact that I thought about the different strategies to maximize town victory should provide reasons for you to believe my townness.
- I also strongly pushed for two claim phase, so that the power roles would not claim unless they provided additional information would be provided.
- I insisted many times for whoever got roleblocked to claim. If I was a scum, knowing that I either did not roleblock anyone or roleblocked TMG, I would have fake-claimed roleblocked. Considering I was the one who posited the possibility of scum skipping roleblock to claim roleblock, it would have been a rather safe way to be cleared - especially when the current state of the game so unfavorable to scum. Scum Harry would have claimed roleblocked.
The first two points don't give me a strong town read because they're fairly non-controversial/non-original issues. Multiple people in the town were posting similar ideas, and its not like Mafia would give bad advice on blues in the first place.
As for the Roleblock thing, I've been thinking about that a lot for the last hour or so, and there are only two situations that I can come up with.
1) You (assuming you're mafia) didn't Roleblock because you had no good targets. Instead, you saved it as a ploy to gain trust as a townie and brought it to light as early as possible.
2) Mackin's (assuming he's mafia) 24 hour IRL issues was rushed to send in a lynch PM and forgot about his roleblock action.
While this is all speculation, most of the points above are fairly non-controversial and would have been brought up at some point by another townie.
Lastly, this post is just really really strange:
On July 08 2012 18:50 YourHarry wrote:Anyways town victory is almost a certainty. Even if we randomized all of our actions, as long as we lynch from unconfirmed list, we should cruise to victory. According to my calculations, something like 3% chance of losing. Additional strategy. Both detective and tracker should publicize who they will target. They should pick two different players. The medic can randomly protect tracker or detective, but if either detective or tracker makes it known that he will target the medic, do not protect that person (for example, detective plans to target A and tracker plans to target B, and if A turns out to be the medic, medic should protect the tracker who's targeting someone other than medic). Guidelines on day 3: Tracker and detective should immediately report. The perfect scenario is if any power role receives "innocent" or "no visit". As long as we have one additional confirmed townie, we are guaranteed a 100% victory. If detective is alive and he received "guilty" on player X, we should lynch X regardless. If detective is dead and tracker targeted the player Y who "visited Z", we should kill Y as long as Z got lynched at night. Again, Y cannot be the medic here because nurse should have protected the detective if tracker publicized his plan to target the medic (And yes, tracker is more powerful than detective at this time). I really want to play through this game, but I feel the responsibility to volunteer to lynch myself. I am a vanilla townie and I do not want to risk having to force the medic to claim. Good job Hapah, if you are town  If not, you lose Good game everyone and good luck!! ##Vote YourHarry
I can't follow the logic of you voting for yourself to not force the medic to claim. On top of that, how is lynching yourself (from a VT perspective) pro-town?
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Osnap BassinSpace is red?
Well he could be the miller, so someone try to build a case on him. He was one of my strongest townie reads, so this comes as rather surprising.
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Lynching Bass based on a DT read seems like a pretty terrible idea. I understand if were were down to a LYLO situation or something, but we we need to lynch the scummiest read we can find. This is just an excuse for us to be lazy, cross our fingers, and pray we're right. If we're wrong, we lose an entire day of discussion on a coinflip.
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On July 11 2012 10:59 YourHarry wrote:
First, I do not believe that no matter how much we tried, we would be able to find the scum 50% of the time.
Second, if we let BassInSpace live, it would cause so much distraction later in the day. In fact, this would be exactly what the scum wants. Imagine scum and bassinspace to make it to LYLO! This is especially the case since medic and detective are completely useless now. We HAVE to stick with this report. If he's miller, then so be it.
This does not mean we should stop discussing who is scummy. In fact, this game just got a lot more interesting but I want to fast forward time to lynch Bass to see what happens.
Listen, I'm all far lynching BassInSpace if he's the scummiest read we have, but it's mind-numbingly stupid to lynch him on hope and prayer.
This information just gives us another out when we lynch - we win the game if a guy flips Miller OR Mafia. Lynching someone on a 50% chance is terrible. If we lynch the miller tomorrow or in the subsequent days, we can lynch Bass at a 100% chance.
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While 50% is good odds, its not the most effective use of the information at hand.
Let's assume we have three lynches remaining in total. Bass has a 50% of being mafia, and the 4 unconfirmed players have an equal chance of being mafia.
Situation 1, we lynch Bass D3.
50% chance of Bass flipping Mafia (50% chance of victory)
50% chance of bass flipping miller
- 1/4 chance of lynching correct D4 (1/4 of 50% = 12.5%)
- 3/4 chance of mislynching D4 ---> 1/3 chance of lynching correct D5 (1/3 of 3/4 of 50% = 12.5%)
75% of victory total
Situation 2, we lynch bass D5 after two days of lynching other scummy players:
2/5 chance of lynching miller or mafia D3 (40% chance of victory)
3/5 chance of lynching townie
- 2/4 chance of lynching miller or mafia D4 (2/4 of 60% = 30%)
- Lynch Bass in LYLO for 50% chance of mafia flip (50% of 30% = 15%)
85% chance of victory
Now its entirely possible that I've fucked up the math somewhere (its been ages since I've taken a statistics/probability course), but the point I'm trying to make is that lynching on the "guilty" DT check now is not the most effective use of our information in a strictly mathematical viewpoint.
Again, this is assuming that everyone has an equal chance of being scum and whatnot, but the point should be demonstrated.
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I'll double check my math, but there's no way it can be 50% for situation two, given that one of our main assumptions is that BassInSpace has a 50% chance of being mafia. That's a baseline of 50% no matter what day we lynch. In addition, we lynch other members increasing our chance over 50%
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Damnit you sniped me again - I'll doublecheck
Though its worth saying that this 50% of mafia stuff is inherently fallacious
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Oh yeah I made a mistake - didn't account for Bass taking one of the miller/mafia slots and put 2/5 instead of 1/4 for the first part of situation 2.
So they're the same. However, situation 2 will give us more information and generate more discussion (rather than simply lynching bass and being done with it). Therefore I vote situation 2
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We're not going to ignore him. Hell if we can establish a case on him, we might have grounds to lynch him today as opposed to D4 or D5. In addition, if he has strong enough of a townie read, we might not lynch him at all.
@BassInSpace - While we wait for someone to post a case/defense against you: who do you believe is(are) the best lynch target(s) for Day 3?
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Are there any rules on posting requirements regarding Night and Day cycles? Mackin did not post the entirety of the N2 cycle, and I've seen players get modkilled for this in the past
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Yah here it is in the OP:
Activity:
You must post in this thread once per day/night cycle and vote every day while you are alive. If you fail to do so, you will be modkilled.
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On July 12 2012 00:16 Evulrabbitz wrote:
BassInSpace. As it is now I simply cannot trust anything you say or any case you make. It is too dangerous.
The fact that you even think your votes is of more value to the town than a confirmed townies view is ridiculous. The town has such and advantage the vote doesn't really matter; What matters now is confirming people's roles so their words gain credibility.
If you try to convince me to lynch someone other than you now (which is to some degree understandable) all I will see is potential misleading. If you make your cases against who you think is suspicious and, if lynched, flip green, they all know that the information you have provided is 100% town-aligned.
I don't choose who to investigate by chance. I chose you because all trough this game you have been trying to make a case against Mackin but when the voting is due you jump onto the most voted person (granted you did have to chose between Lazer and Hopeless, but the concept still stands). I found that somewhat scummy and decided to investigate.
Stop it. Just stop.
It will do you no harm to listen to his defense. In addition, he has a lot of pro-townie points from his actions on Day 1. He was the only other player in the game besides me to vote Hopeless1der, stick with his vote, and support his lynch. That's pretty pro-fucking-townie.
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To add to the above, I'd lynch Mackin and YourHarry (for reasons previously stated) in a heartbeat before we lynch Bass.
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On July 12 2012 05:33 YourHarry wrote:Show nested quote +On July 12 2012 05:15 Hapahauli wrote:
To add to the above, I'd lynch Mackin and YourHarry (for reasons previously stated) in a heartbeat before we lynch Bass. I tried to answer your questions. Let me know what questions were unanswered or not satisfied with. I strongly recommend lynching Bass today. For reasons previously stated. I am willing to repeat these reasons and discuss them further upon requests.
I'll get to your defense later in more detail tonight - the N2 night actions have been a huge distraction from any productive analysis.
But the gist of it is:
- You don't really clear yourself on a lot of the more suspicious actions. You basically acknowledge that your D1 lynch voting is suspicious. In addition
- "Overall, Hapha, I think, for you to have a reasonable ground to accuse me" - direct quote.
- The reasons you listed for your townie behavior are pretty inconsequential. As brought up by me and Bass, talking about blue actions does not make you a pro townie. In addition, you still have not built a case on a player or provided any analysis on one.
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First of all, calling it a 50% chance to lynch Bass is inherently fallicious. There's either a 100% chance he's scum, or a 100% chance he's miller. Calling it 50% is a vast oversimplification of the situation.
Based on Bass's actions (especially the D1 lynch) and my own reads, I'd say Bass has well over a 50% chance of being the miller.
Do you really think there aren't more suspicious players than Bass? Who is your strongest scumread?
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EBWOP: "First of all, calling it a 50% chance to lynch Bass is inherently fallicious"
should be
"First of all, calling it a 50% chance for Bass to be Mafia is inherently fallicious"
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On July 12 2012 06:26 Evulrabbitz wrote:Show nested quote +This is very scummy. You are trying to downplay the fact that we have misslynched Release and was about to misslynch Zen_Man. Will this be your argument when Bass flips miller aswell?
He clearly states what happened, how can that be downplaying it? Show nested quote +This check was not useless. If someone would flip miller, we can just auto-lynch Bass. But that will not happend as Bass is miller.
What if the miller flips too late? Keep in mind Jingle said the same about Hopeless. Hapa was very convinced Jingle was Mafia. We all said the same about Release (As YourHarry pointed out). He never said it was useless, he said that because there is a miller the validity of investigation has been compromised; As in it might not be entirely true. All you said in that post was plain bullshit. Anyway. I don't side with Harry, nor do I side with Bass. I believe that keeping BassInSpace alive is not crucial for town victory. What you do need is town-aligned information and viewpoints. Now, if BassInSpace makes his cases; "Who would he lynch first? Next? etc", you still have his viewpoints. If we then lynch him we either get a Mafia and win the game or get a valid source of information there is no need to distrust.
Lynching on hope and prayer is incredibly stuipd. If he turns up mafia, yay we win. If he turns up miller, we are screwed. Please just read through his filter - I see NOTHING about his play that's remotely scummy.
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On July 12 2012 06:33 Evulrabbitz wrote:Show nested quote +People, either get of this stupid bandwagon on Bass or at least say why you think he should be lynched I already did. Have you stopped reading? I clearly stated it. What I also clearly stated was why I think your post targeting YourHarry was bullshit, which you seem to have completely ignored.
It's not entirely bullshit. YourHarry basically discourages us from doing analysis and cites Release and (note: this is while YourHarry is under suspicion) and to vote for Bass immediately. This is despite me and YourHarry coming to a concensus that there's no mathematical basis for lynching Bass now as opposed to later.
I was on the fence about YourHarry until I saw his last post. There are so many contradictions and anti-town mentality in it that I'll cast my vote unless another compelling case is brought forward.
My earlier suspicions against YourHarry still stand, including but not limited to:
- Still has not posted any analysis and reads on players (his only bit of analysis cast suspicion on all players who voted for Lazer, which is now wrong).
- His defense doesn't really clear him - he says I have a decent basis to be suspicious of him, and he (mis)represents his blue analysis as pro-town behavior.
- His latest round of posts are rife with conradiciton. He's very desperately pushing for the lynch of Bass despite the earlier discussions we've had on the subject (we both establish that there's no mathematical basis for lynching him immediately).
##Vote YourHarry
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EPT
