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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 08 2012 11:43 Evulrabbitz wrote: I am the Detective. Since the heated discussion during the night I decided to do my check on JingleHell. He turned innocent (reads non-mafia). My mind just blew up. Holy shit Jingle. I owe you a drink or something. Like shit. My bad. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
The_Zen_Man was the 2nd highest on my list, and Lazer made a pretty good case on him earlier. I could probably build cases on Release and Mackin as well. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
But there's no point in a counter-claim list. Lets just wait to see if there's a counterclaim. I also pretty strongly suspected Evul of a blue role, so I see no reason to distrust him until proven otherwise. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 08 2012 12:28 Evulrabbitz wrote: In my opinion there is no point for the tracker to claim at this point. Maybe closer to the night if he can prevent a mislynch but for the moment there is no point to it unless he have evidence against a mafia(which I highly doubt). I still like the idea of tracker role-claiming, especially if we can take suspicion off of one of two players. For example, if tracker declares and it leads to the clear of even one of Lazer/Zen/Release/JieXian, we're in really really good shape. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 07 2012 15:19 Release wrote: Well i read the Jingle case and i can't disagree with it. But it makes me uncomfortable to feel that he is scum, because then YourHarry would be the other scum (those two had a little OMGUS battle and then suddenly reconciled, great way to clutter the thread), leaving no place for Lazer to be scum, which i still think is true. And mackin... Indecisive on Jingle case, points fingers at a bunch of players for zero justification, etc. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Also, we should look at Lazer's case of The_Zen_Man and decide who's the more suspicious. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=25#492 Bass's case against Mackin still stand as well. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
##Unvote: JingleHell | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
As such, this is the list of people who haven't been proven innocent via roleclaim/bluecheck Hapahaulli Release Mackin The_Zen_Man BassinSpace LazerMonkey One Medic, four townsfolk/miller, and one Mafia RoleBlocker. I want to be able to take two cases to the lynch deadline (just incase our primary read ends up roleclaiming medic). Everyone on this list needs to be questioned (including me). We need to make sure we take the most convincing case to the gallows. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 08 2012 14:51 Release wrote: if there are no roleclaims, then take this with a grain of salt: + Show Spoiler + On July 08 2012 14:26 JieXian wrote: I really hate the idea of roleclaiming but it seems like the right move since a mafia got modkilled (boo newbie games) Feels good to have read Jingle correctly. Would have felt like an idiot defending him if he was scum. Tracked EvulRabbit, knew he was DT. Confirmed. (Your seemed worried for no reason N1 >_>) You just chose the easiest claim possible, the only one a scum can know for sure. a VT / medic track could easily result in your failure to correctly identify townies On July 08 2012 14:32 JieXian wrote: nah I won't have roleclaimed if there was 2 left. It's 8-1 you can't possibly be worried about losing. a bit nonchalant don't you think? we get three mislynches, but we don't have enough confirmed townies to arbitrarily vote until we hit (should inevitably) hit scum. Release... this is just awful. No mafia in their right mind would ever claim blue int his situation (if they did, they're auto-dead next day). What's the point of even drawing suspicion at JieXian? There is none, and you've been doing nothing but pointing fingers the entire night cycle. FOS: Release | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
A quick case on Release - I find his current gameplay very different from his typical town-aligned gameplay, which is well established from three newbie mafia games: Newbie Mafia XIV Newbie Mafia XVI Newbie Mafia XVIII I'll give a brief overview of his playstyle in each game. I also highly recommend skimming through his past games to get a feel for his posting - it doesn't take much reading to realize how different he is as a townie. (all underlined words are hyperlinks for referencing). Newbie Mafia XIV On page 1 of his filter, you'll notice long posts that take clear stances on players early in the game. He never appears wishy-washy or unsure of himself. THIS POST sums up this game's town-alligned Release very well - forceful, looking to pick confrontations, and actively builds cases (even if this particular case was against the town doctor xD). Newbie Mafia XVI Release doesn't build any large cases in the early parts of this game, but is very forceful about his opinions. He locks on to one player (Grush) early on in the game and grills him relentlessly. However, he's very willing to change his vote multiple times at a whim. He's extremely reckless and not afraid to forcefully point fingers/generate discussion. Look at THIS POST for another example of forceful townie Release. Newbie Mafia XVIII Release gets killed by Mafia N1 here, so there's not much to go on. Do note that his tone is forceful throughout his filter, he never summaryposts, and never tries to out several people in a single post. His post count/activity here is much lower due to a busy schedule, something he mentions after death. Release Townie Meta Summary - Release always accuses 1 player at a time. He locks on to someone and grills them forcefully, actively seeking confrontation. He'll switch votes at whim if he sees other suspicious behavior. - Release rarely, if ever, attacks cases on players he's not pursuing. Release really locks on to his cases and tries to build it. - Release is always at the center of the controversy. - Release is not afraid to defend himself against accusations. Release Day 1 Lynch Release in this current game has been very different. Just take a look at some of these quotes: One thing that I really fucked up in my case against JingleHell was not looking for Mafia motive. I had evidence of scummy play, but did not have a story and mafia-motive behind actions and behaviors. I will be clearly identifying motives in this analysis First, Release calls JingleHell's post suspicious after defending him against Lazer in his previous post. In addition, he doesn't take any forceful opinions. Note he doesn't accuse Jingle ("This is kind of interesting"), and takes a very unclear stance on TMG26. Townie Release would have been throwing around votes based on past meta. Release is trying to spread suspicion against multiple players while pushing a bad case against LazerMonkey. The push in itself isn't bad, but spreading suspicions is pro-mafia. On July 06 2012 00:00 Release wrote: This is kind of interesting You defend Lazer and try to downplay the importance of first posts (despite Lazer calling his own post bad). Absolutely not. If his post caught traction, we would waste lots of time. Your post did catch traction, but we hardly wasted any significant amount of time. Something meaningless works better than what he did because we know it's not serious. You know it, i know it, he knows it, but he chose to choose something "significant." TMG looks rather shit, but if his english actually sucks, then we have a serious problem. Lurkers speak up now. I will lynch you if Lazer is not a serious contender. Next, Release acknowledges my case on hopeless as "fairly good," then continues his vote for LazerMonkey for unclear reasons. This is consistent with a Release who wants to put himself in good standing with the author of a case against fellow mafia, but instead tries to push a townie lynch. Release is keeping his options open and remaining unclear - a mafia trait. On July 06 2012 23:58 Release wrote: caught up; I think Meta is a horrible form of analysis. + Show Spoiler + Defending me based on my previous games is quite shit. Since i should be back 15 minutes before the deadline, i'll leave my vote on Lazer for now. One word: deceitful and Jingle is pulling a half-grush, which i think is never good for town. Release's post just before the D1 lynch. Pre-lynch panic, combined with outing THREE players in one post for unclear reasons. This is wildly inconsistent with Townie Jingle, and it is in mafia's best interest to spread baseless suspicion. On July 07 2012 10:00 Release wrote: Fuck fuck fuck fuck. From what i see, the scum has to be Lazer and Jingle (maybe Harry) When its clear that Hopeless is going to hang, Release covers his bases before the D1 mod post. Note that he acknowledges a legitimate suspicion against Hopeless, yet does not change his vote. He also outs 3 players in this post again. On July 07 2012 10:13 Release wrote: you two seem awfully pretentious and deceitful, but i didn't see that Hopeless hasn't posted shit since the acusation (probably scared of slipping.) Release: Night 1 You're going to see Release make a huge gear-switch after Hopeless1der gets lynched. He tries to further justify his suspicions against LazerMonkey for vague reasons (and ignores me the MULTIPLE TIMES I call him out for it). Instead, he tries to establish a friendly rapport with the town, while pointing fingers and generally not doing anything. Release first addresses why he voted for Lazer. Look at the complete lack of reasoning. In my counter argument, I proved all of these false. On July 07 2012 12:38 Release wrote: @hapahauli His first post, which is incredibly deceitful His repeated bringing up of the fact that the sex toys discussion was worse than his first post, and that the sex toys was legitimately bad and scummy behavior. Despite still having HEAVY suspicions of Lazer, Release agrees with my case on Jingle then promptly outs YourHarry and Mackin for scummy behavior. His reasons are vague, unclear, and this is not the forceful Release in his townie meta. Release is trying to stirr up suspicions and create unrest. On July 07 2012 15:19 Release wrote: Well i read the Jingle case and i can't disagree with it. But it makes me uncomfortable to feel that he is scum, because then YourHarry would be the other scum (those two had a little OMGUS battle and then suddenly reconciled, great way to clutter the thread), leaving no place for Lazer to be scum, which i still think is true. And mackin... Release outs two MORE players in his next post. On July 08 2012 01:35 Release wrote: caught up and evul has wasted a hell of a lot of time talking about circumstance/hypothetical scenarios about D1, despite the fact that we have passed day 1. He also tried the if this, then that bullshit. I don't really see what town motivation would cause this, but as a scum, it's trying to survive without an analytical basis. "meh, that post doesn't feel like a sufficient basis for an accusation" = defense because there was an accusation (I) and your saying there should be no accusation tells me to stop attacking him for that reason. Release has a sudden change of heart against Lazer and jumps on the Jingle bandwagon (before Evul claimed DT and verified Jingle as townie). Release finds a better angle and jumps on the mislynch in an attempt to avoid suspicion On July 08 2012 10:00 Release wrote: I've caught up in this thread and have to say that i no longer believe Lazer to be scum. so far, Hapa has been very good on fighting against scummy plays, making his analyses and i would hope that others follow suit. Especially jingle. Summaryposting in an attempt to gain rapport with the town. On July 08 2012 10:04 Release wrote: very unlikely that the two remaining scum is among those who voted for me. the remaining 2 scum is among:Release, JingleHell, JieXian, The_Zen_Man, Khorrus(replacement) and Mackin These are 100% contradictory and mentally retarded. Correct me if i'm missing something but you just said "no they're not" and "yes they are" in close succession Sudden voteswitch to lazer for a single line after N1. This is an effort to create further confusion, knowing that JingleHell is on pace to be lynched. On July 08 2012 10:08 Release wrote: lazer i just cleared, you and you post this. Explain yourself. This is total bullshit and you know it and as far as i'm concerned, ##vote: lazer Release spends the rest of the night (and the opening of D2) posting summary and one-liners. In conclusion, Release's behavior this game is very different from his Town-alligned meta in a mafia-oriented way. Furthermore, clear and logical mafia motivations can be derived from all of his actions. I highly suspect Release to be Mafia. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Patience sir. ##Vote Release | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
CLICK HERE (reference) Note: Release also accuses me of being Mafia here, on the grounds that I've been too pro-town and therefore deceitful. If anyone wishes to hear my thoughts, I'll gladly comment, though I find the reasoning insane and not worth addressing. Analyzing the "Breadcrumb" from Townie Release Perspective (Night 1 and onwards)
These three events/opinions by Release are wildly inconsistent with one another, and I can't find a townie motive anywhere. Release breadcrumbing me as godfather basically says that me and JingleHell are the last two mafia (despite all his statements above). So how could townie Release justify this? Here's a Hypothetical based on a townie-release motivated breadcrumb: If JingleHell would get lynched D2 and flips red (remember, hypothetical), if we assume Release's suspicions hold, his case against me would be built around me lynching two of my fellow mafia members (who wouldn't have suspicion on them otherwise) in a very aggressive manner. This would be a really strange breadcrumb. If JingleHell gets lynched D2 and flips green/blue, Release would use the breadcrumb against me to discredit me and push me as the godfather for pushing a mislynch. Again however, given Release's support of my case, this doesn't make sense, as he supports the mislynch himself. I can't find any townie justification for his breadcrumb move, and I'd appreciate the thoughts of others on this issue. Mafia scenarios are pretty easy to identify though - Release would know that JingleHell would be a mislynch, and thus would use the breadcrumb after he flips green to discredit another townie and create extra suspicion. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Breadcrumb (click!)) Release (who claims he's Town alligned) supported my case against JingleHell because the godfather(me) was pushing for the lynch. Wat. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
On July 09 2012 05:51 Lazermonkey wrote: While I agree with that Release looks bad, Hope's meta case on him is just shit. It's massivly dependant on the fact that Release have the abilty to be active the same amount of time in all of his games. While it may be true that he is lying about being bussy, this is just WIFOM and can't possibly be used as an argument against him. I don't claim to understand Release but I played XVI where we both were town. His play soso. The good part of it was his activity level but his reads were kinda off. He were tunneling alot and didn't really look at motives nor did he swap his target too often. He got alot of critique on that so it just makes sense that he would be trying to change his play this game. I'm going to assume you meant my case against Release, and I appreciate the comments. The majority of my case isn't based around Release's activity - its based on his posting style. Several of his posts on day one are massively out of character with his townie persona. Release in his other three games is never unsure of himself, never wishy-washy, and will never passively fingerpoint people. I'm sure he didn't receive any advice to start doing this, yet look at some of these posts: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=13#248 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=19#368 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=21#409 Townie Release NEVER posts ANYTHING in his townie meta similar to the 3 posts above He is fickle about his opinions, sounds passive, and fingerpoints multiple people within individual posts. Not only is it out of character with Release's town meta - its out-of character in a mafia-oriented way. My case on Hopeless was built on the exact same meta argument - Hopeless was being different from his town meta (being passive/diplomatic/fingerpointing) with mafia motives. I'll give some more detailed comments on your case about Zen tonight, but from what I've seen so far, Zen has been far too quiet for me to make a solid judgement. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Anywho, some comments on your case of Zen - since his filter's so short, I'm just going to break it down in a "timeline." 1) Zen opens the game with a case on Mackin - (You mention this is not a major reason for your scumread, so take this with a grain of salt). I don't find this post scummy at all. While he does take a stance against a passive player/eazy target, calling out lurkers is a townie trait, as it helps spark discussion. The content of the post itself is a pretty legitimate attempt at analysis as well. In addition, ignoring the first few pages of shitposting is not necessarily a bad thing - it can be interpreted as lazy town play, or a townie who doesn't see any value in 2)Zen's suspicious D1 voting - This makes him look pretty bad. He goes from voting Hopeless ("Hopeless IS Mafia"), to posting a pretty bad case against you and keeping his options open ("i am equally suspicous of Lazer as i am Hopeless"). His vote-switch three hours later for unclear reasons is suspicious as well - given that it put LazerMonkey into the voting lead. I think you've said all that needs to be said here, however, I can't justify voting for him on a voting pattern alone. Now some of my own reads on Zen that could strengthen/weaken your case: Zen's overall "lurkiness" - Zen has 1 page of filter so far, and only has a couple of pretty useless posts after the D1 lynch. In particular, his posts emphasize stalling and taking non-controversial opinions (click for reference). I don't think this is enough to make a judgement, but Zen is not helping his cause and is showing some mafia-motive. Zen's "analysis" - Zen has two attempts at analysis so far, one being a decent early-game suspicion of Mackin, and a pretty bad bandwagon case on Lazermonkey. While the timing of the case is interesting, it actually is an attempt at analysis despite it being pretty bad content-wise. While Zen has shown very suspicious behavior, we only have lurkiness/voting patterns to go on. I feel that both Release and Zen have been very suspicious, but there is simply not enough information on Zen for me to make a judgement. I might go through his game-history later to get a feel of meta. As it stands, we have a lot of information (meta and otherwise) on Release and he's the better D2 lynch IMO. | ||
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Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
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