Newbie Mini Mafia XVII - Page 5

Miltonkram puts roflwaffles in his top 2 most suspicious about 21 hours into D1:
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Not only does he show suspicions on roflwaffles, but his reasoning is actually quite good. roflwaffles did make himself look scared by backing down off his top suspect just because people disagreed with his case.

roflowaffles then made 2 posts. One post in which he said miltonkram had "defeated his own arguments" and then this post further pressuring alan:
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Then, miltonkram backs off of roflwaffes, because miltonkram sees that roflwaffles is still pressuring alan. Now, this whole back-and-forth does seem like it could be an artificial conversation between two mafia.

But, don't you think it would be a bit too obvious? Why does miltonkram back off of roflwaffles if this is a bussing thing? Nobody else showed any suspicions of roflwaffles, so it wasn't like roflwaffles was in any danger. I don't think it makes sense for a scum miltonkram would be backing off so quickly there. Surely he would realize it'd look suspicious if either him or roflwaffles ever died and flipped red.

Anyway, I have to consider the whole thing with roflwaffles slight evidence in his favor. If Miltonkram really did bus HeavOnEarth, that means he kinda bussed both scumbuddies on D1. This seems a bit unnecessary and overly ambitious.

I think this is really good evidence for miltonkram being town, especially relative to suki.

Here is a summary of how the alan bandwaggon rolled on D1+ Show Spoiler +

Now miltonkram and roflwaffles being scumbuddies wouldn't make any sense here. roflwaffles brings up a case, two people aren't convinced, and then scumbuddy miltonkram jumps on the scum bandwaggon? What? Highly unlikely. I've read miltonkram's mafia QT from NMM XIV and he really tries not to tie himself to his scumbuddy.

Then, after s0Lstice and suki jump on the bandwaggon, miltonkram jumps off, and posts a bit of defense for alan. How does a mafia miltonkram expect alan to get mislynched by behaving like that?

I think it's more likely that miltonkram read my defense of alan and liked it. He also looked back through alan's filter, and decided to back off of him.

suki's movements on this bandwaggon look far more suspicious. She changes her mind at the worst possible times.

This has to be counted in his favor. First, look at how he calls out HeavOnEarth twice for lurking:





Then, he is third on the HeavOnEarth bandwaggon, after me and s0Lstice. Seeing as HeavOnEarth was s0Lstice's top target, and in my top 3, and s0Lstice and I had a lot of thread influence, it would have been quite risky for a scum miltonkram to add any more fuel to the fire. Does he really want to get the godfather lynched D1?

Then miltonkram goes to sleep, wakes up, and reads the thread. s0Lstice is pushing a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan has also voted him. Then miltonkram sensibly puts his vote on HeavOnEarth. All of miltonkram's actions contributed to the HeavOnEarth lynch, so it's certainly good evidence in favor of him being townie.

Now what kind of lame-ass bus would these posts be? Miltonkram's pre-lynch nervousness has been held against him. At first, I saw it that way too. But if you really think about it, I think it's good evidence in his favor.





Look at the thread temperature at that point. s0Lstice has been pushing for a HeavOnEarth lynch. alan, suki, miltonkram, and roflwaffles have all voted HeavOnEarth. sciberbia will surely vote HeavOnEarth.

Now if miltonkram is mafia, he sees 5 votes on HeavOnEarth. The bandwaggon against him includes both scum AND s0Lstice/sciberbia. In what fantasy world is HeavOnEarth not getting lynched? If miltonkram is scum, he clearly already resigned himself to the fact that HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, seeing as both he and roflwaffles voted HeavOnEarth.

So if miltonkram knows HeavOnEarth is getting lynched, and knows HeavOnEarth will flip scum, what on earth is the point of these 2 posts that don't make him look that great if HeavonEarth flips scum? Wouldn't he do better to look more committed to the lynch?

First of all, assuming golden flips VT (or scum), it's pretty obvious that we have no more blues >_<. Which means the last mafia is surely a goon. Having a roleblocker vs a mere vigilante & veteran is ridiculously overpowered. Additionally, nobody has been RB'd all game.

So killing austinmcc without even roleblocking him isn't nearly as much of a boon to mafia. They can't stop him shooting roflwaffles if he is vigi. And shooting a lynchable veteran is a terrible idea.

So I'm quite sure the NK of austinmcc was a suboptimal play. During N1, miltonkram would surely think he has some slim chance of winning the game as mafia, whereas suki would probably know she is dead. So I think suki is more likely to have made a suboptimal NK for the lulz or just some random reason not related to winning the game.

In favor of suki though, she was active all night, whereas miltonkram was gone. Seeing as blues we had both submitted their night actions in a timely manner, the scrambling of the mods was likely done for mafia's benefit. More likely to be because of miltonkram than suki.

Overall, I don't think this is great evidence for either one of them (suki/miltonkram) over the other.

I see two possible reasons for his suggestion to get blues to breadcrumb at the end of N1:
1) He is town and thought this was a good idea
2) He is mafia and was desperately trying to find the (nonexistant >_<) cop

When I asked him about his reasoning, he made this post"
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This strongly suggests to me that he is town. If a mafia miltonkram got called out on giving town bad advice, I'd expect some decent excuse. But here he shows some really in-depth thinking on the subject from a townie perspective. Reads quite townie to me.

I've already talked about this a bit. I really think crossfire was a more sensible kill for miltonkram. If golden is mafia, I think he made a mistake by killing alan. He should have killed crossfire.

If the last mafia is suki/miltonkram, I have no doubt that they'd have some sort of plan for what went down today. Scum suki seems to have had a plan: kill alan --> get miltonkram lynched. Very straightforward.

But miltonkram not so much. First of all, he doesn't actually post until quite a bit of time has passed. This allows 2 votes to get thrown on him without much resistance. Then, he accuses golden moreso than suki.

I really don't think he'd have planned on lynching golden today. Leave sciberbia alive --> lynch golden doesn't seem like it would have been a solid plan.

D1: pushes alan (a townie). defends HeavOnEarth(a mafia). Only votes HeavOnEarth after it likely doesn't matter
D2: pushes trackd00r hard (a townie)
D3: pushes unforgiven hard (a townie)
D4: pushes golden (a townie)
D5: probably pushes miltonkram (a probable townie)

NK 1: austinmcc is suspicious of suki (maybe less so than golden, but still)]
NK 2: s0Lstice is quite suspicious of suki (but she could also use it to push unforgiven)
NK 3: alan is suspicious of suki. Why did alan not die earlier? He used to think suki was town.
NK 4: probably sciberbia

Crossfire, I understand you're personal read of suki has been pretty town. Maybe that'll change as you read through filters. But, if there was ever a time to listen to other people's reads, now is probably it. Here are the last thoughts of all known or assumed townies on suki:

austinmcc: suspicious of suki; no comment on milton
s0Lstice: suki 2nd most suspicious; milton reads town
trackd00r: no real comment on either
unforgiven: suki town; miltonkram mafia
alan: unsure on suki; not suspicious of miltonkram
golden: suki suspicious; no comment on miltonkram
sciberbia: suki mafia; miltonkram town

Only unforgiven finds miltonkram more suspicious. And several people are significantly more suspicious of suki than of miltonkram.

The tone of suki's posts have changed a bit throughout the game. This is kinda indicative of a mafia because they try to be decietful.

Here are some posts:
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hmm I was expecting to find some better quotes. Maybe this section isn't the best evidence. You can decide for yourself.

I already talked about this a bit in my post on miltonkram. If suki is scum, I'd have expected her to have a plan for D4. I think her plan was to get miltonkram lynched by killing alan. And then kill sciberbia and WIFOM her way into getting golden lynched. AND if golden gets modkilled D4/D5, this works out brilliantly for her.

If this is true, I'd have expected her to be very reluctant to back off miltonkram. And this holds true. She makes some pretty faulty analysis on the NK, insisting that it makes sense for miltonkram where it really doesn't.

Here, I clearly state the three people that I think would make good lynches. I am the second person to deem HeavOnEarth suspicious. I was not overly confident about any of the three, though, as I believe I have said before. Naturally, I don't cast my vote yet.

I also explain that I will be at work and not super active until 1.5 hours before the deadline. I work from about 11AM to 6PM EDT on weekdays. If you look throughout this entire game, I'm pretty sure I haven't made any substancial posts from work. Sorry, but I'm busy. I think it makes perfect sense not to cast my vote until I get back from work.



Here I explain that I'm at work and can't really post until I get back. I also ask for opinions on Crossfire. At this point, HeavOnEarth only had one vote (s0Lstice). Crossfire was under some heat from various players, and we needed opinions on him. I didn't have time to really think about his defense from work and make up my own mind, so I didn't post any of my own thoughts on it.

The landslide of votes (alan,suki,miltonkram,roflwaffles) happened around 4pm or 5pm.

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I think I left work an hour early that day because I knew we'd need time before the lynch. I spent some time assembling the above post, which makes it pretty clear that HeavOnEarth is the consensus target. I asked for opinions on HeavOnEarth because you always want to hear everyone's opinion on whoever gets lynched before they flip.

I also ask HeavOnEarth to give as many reads as he can. This is certainly in town's best interest. Honestly, the main way I was expecting it to help is if he flipped mafia, maybe we could get some information from his "reads".

After making this post, I took some time to catch up on posts. I studied through HeavOnEarth's filter. I decided that I thought he was a good lynch, so I stated my reasoning, and voted him.

IN CONCLUSION
I think my D1 actions were perfectly reasonable. If I had been closely following the thread closely the whole day, I probably would have voted HeavOnEarth sooner. But I think I did a lot to contribute to getting him lynched. First of all, I did a lot to slow the bandwaggon on someone I correctly read as townie (alan). Then, I listed HeavOnEarth as one of the three people I'd like to vote for. Then when I got back from work, I really studied his filter (especially his latest posts) which convinced me he was a good lynch, so I voted him.

I don't think the argument of "sciberbia was just trying not to have to bus HeavOnEarth" really makes sense. HeavOnEarth wasn't my primary lynch target. I listed three people I'd be happy lynching. Obviously, we need a majority, and not everyone can have their top pick. Once it became clear that HeavOnEarth was a consensus choice, I voted him as I said I would. It's not like HeavOnEarth was my top target all along and I was just delaying a vote on him for no reason.

I really don't see the merit in that mafia plan. I've never heard of the mafia strategy to consistently find one player suspicious but never lynch them. If I were mafia, I could've just NK'd people like unforgiven, alan, and crossfire, and I really don't think I'd get lynched. It'd come down to something like me/s0Lstice/golden/miltonkram/austinmcc. Do you really see me getting lynched there? The plan of intentionally not lynching a scummy person to save them for the last day just seems kinda random and pointless.

Besides, on both D2 and D4, I would have lynched you if it was all up to me and nobody else gave their opinion.

On D2, I thought the cases agaisnt you (mainly mine and s0Lstice's) were quite good. I voted you. Everybody else voted trackd00r. What do you want me to have done? Shout at everyone else that we should be lynching you? I thought trackd00r also had a good chance at being the last mafia, so I switched my vote to him at the end. I had already made my case against you, and everyone else (s0Lstice included) wanted to lynch trackd00r. I don't see how my actions here are suspicious.

On D3, I made a bad call on unforgiven. I liked s0Lstice's case on him. Sorry - it was just a bad read. Also, I didn't change my opinion on you just based on the NK. As I clearly stated (although you cut it out of the quote), your posting since N1 gave me a very townie feel: not giving up, continuing to scumhunt in the face of your death, etc. I've mentioned this multiple times by now.

On D4, it was very clear to me that we could lynch 2 out of 3: suki, miltonkram, golden. After a LOT of thinking, I concluded that miltonkram was my surest town read. Honestly, if I had to pick only one person to lynch for the rest of the game, it would probably have been you. But that wasn't the scenario: we get to lynch 2 out of 3. I wanted to lynch you and golden. Nowhere did I say that I found golden more suspicious than suki. I just said I want to lynch golden and then suki if golden flips green. I didn't really find golden that scummy. As I said, everyone looked town to me. But miltonkram looked the most town. I don't know what was to be gained by trying to convince everyone to switch their votes to you.

Now on D5, I find you most suspicious again by process of elimination. I've already detailed my strong town-read on miltonkram. I have never ever thought crossfire was mafia. And there are a few things in your filter that are suspicious, especially D1/N1. So I'm pretty confident that it's you.

Again, it seems like you are drawing pretty grand conclusions about complicated mafia schemes that are kinda unnecessary. I really don't know why austinmcc died but I certainly wouldn't have NK'd him. And I didn't use his death to push trackd00r. I was pushing you until everyone else voted trackd00r. Go look at how the D2 mislynch went down.

On D3, the fact that s0Lstice died wasn't like the primary point in my suspicions against unforgiven. Go reread my post. It was the last, minor point.

Besides, I probably would have killed alan on D3 if I were mafia. I've kinda had the feeling ever since the trackd00r lynch that we only have a vigi and vet. Look through NMM mafia archives. We're lucky if we have a medic and a bunch of VT's. Personally, I think this is a bit of a rip-off, but that's besides the point. I would probably have killed a confirmed townie that is suspicious of me over a probable townie that is very defensive of me and would push a mislynch on unforgiven the next day. I really don't see why I would have killed s0Lstice over alan.

On D4, my analysis of the NK of alan led to decent evidence in favor of miltonkram. You're saying that I NK'd alan so I had an excuse to defend miltonkram? I didn't use the NK of alan to push golden.

In summary, you're saying that scum sciberbia's plan was to use NK's to push mislynches. But in reality I hardly do that at all. On D2 I push you until literally everyone else votes trackd00r and I just comment that the NK fits better with trackd00r. On D3, the NK was only a small part of my case. And on D4, the death of alan only made me think miltoknram is town.

I think this is quite an exaggeration. A surefire mafia lynch? I don't know about you, but the only lynch I've felt really good about was unforgiven. You can read my post before we lynch trackd00r where I clearly am not sure he is scum. Also, I don't want to speak for everyone, but I don't think any of us were that sure about golden. The NK's have been generally considered as minor, possibly reliable pieces of evidence, as they should be. You're really overexaggerating the weight we've been putting on NKs.

As far as me now being willing to discard the ONE night kill that doesn't make a lot of sense if you (suki) are scum, what would you rather have me do? Vote to NL just because I don't see why any of the remaining players would have killed austinmcc? The NK of austinmcc doesn't make a lot of sense regardless of who the last scum is.

This is really a non-point. I've been pretty consistent about miltonkram. First, I thought he didn't look scummy, but didn't see why he couldn't be scum. Yes. Both you and s0Lstice agreed with me on this. Next, I was willing to lynch you followed by miltonkram. Yes this follows directly from the previous statement. Everyone else looked more definite-town to me than miltonkram.

Targetting unforgiven was, as I've said, a bad call. I thought he was mafia but he wasn't. Not really anything else to say here.

I never put milton as my #1 town read above crossfire. I said, "Miltonkram is my surest town read of the three. And Crossfire is still out of the question." I don't think I've voiced suspicions on crossfire since D1.

I did change my read on miltonkram a bit during D4. As I said, I spent hours reading filters and really thinking hard about miltonkram/suki/golden. This was much more time than I had spent on miltonkram before. I came up with some new really good reasons why he is probably town. Two of these reasons were based on things after my initial thoughts on him, so doesn't it make sense that my read would change? I detailed the reasoning behind my strong town-read of him today.

Lastly, how does scum sciberbia benefit from hard-defending miltonkram? I really don't get this. If I was mafia, I wouldn't care which of suki/miltonkram was lynched on the last day. I'd probably just say that I find suki a bit more suspicious. Before this huge accusation of yours, everyone had me as a strong town-read. What does a scum sciberbia have to gain by trying to convince crossfire that miltonkram is town? Really doesn't make sense. The town motivation is clearly much stronger.

I've already talked about this a bit. I wanted to lynch you and golden, as I said. I never said golden was more suspicious. The order of lynching isn't really important. If I was able to convince crossfire to vote suki over miltonkram yesterday, surely I'd be able to do it today too. I really don't see what town lost by lynching golden yesterday. He was a top target of suki/miltonkram/crossfire (i think) and was #2 for me. And he was getting modkilled yesterday. To win the game (assuming suki is mafia), I have to / had to convince crossfire that suki is more suspicious than miltonkram. This remains the case D5.

This is also quite a non-point.

rofl's last two big posts of D1 were really scummy. The one where he voted in particular. The thought actually crossed my mind to suggest dropping HeavOnEarth and just to lynch roflwaffles. But I don't think that was a practical course of action.

I already talked about my day D1. After the lynch, I spent a lot of time going through the massive amount of D1 posts and making notes. roflwaffles looked really scummy, so I made a giant case on him.

You accuse me of not talking about rofl's play at all prior to that case. Well, he didn't look really scummy until the end of D1, as I've said. I had no reason to comment on his play before that. I'm sure there were several people I didn't comment on D1. Off the top of my head, I don't think I touched on austinmcc, s0Lstice, roflwaffles, miltonkram, MJ, or golden. IIRC, s0Lstice didn't comment on roflwaffle's play D1 either but was also confident roflwaffles was scum. I don't see how this suspicious.

Also, "it's quite telling that rofl was relieved to have been shot by alan"? Uhh I really think you are stretching here. If I were mafia and thought bussing roflwaffles was the best option, I don't think I'd need his approval.

Didn't alan say I was really active during N1? So wouldn't that mean that I wouldn't have had the mods worried that scum sciberbia wouldn't submit the NK? I was following the thread from work, as usual. If I was mafia, I could've easily submitted the NK from work. It wasn't like I was completely gone. After work, I played tennis. And I only got back to my home computer half hour before the deadline, as I said in my post. I read through some cases and made a small post with a couple of tentative reads on the off-chance I was NK'd.

what is more likely?
(a) that miltonkram will vote sciberbia over suki
(b) or that crossfire will vote miltonkram over suki

Honestly (b) seems more likely to me . I was expecting scum suki to bank on crossfire not being convinced by me. And then she could either NK me and hope crossfire wouldn't change his mind, or NK crossfire and hope I WIFOM myself into voting miltonkram.

I thought my defense of miltonkram was pretty good, but just yesterday crossfire was suspicious of miltonkram to the point of voting him, and still not suspicious of suki. If I had had to bet, I think I would've bet crossfire would reluctantly agree with me to lynch suki, but I'm really not sure.

So does she really think miltonkram would vote me over her on the last day? Again I may be biased, but I don't think miltonkram would.

So why would scum suki decide to accuse me and NK crossfire rather than accuse miltonkram and randomize the NK between me/crossfire? I guess it's possible that she judged the likeliness of (a) and (b) differently than me.

I just realized something else. She could NK miltonkram tomorrow if crossfire buys into her case on me. So she really only needs to convince EITHER miltonkram OR crossfire to vote me, and she can WIFOM her way to a win.

ACTUALLY, I just realized something else. If nobody buys her case on sciberbia, she can still NK me and (maybe) get crossfire to lynch miltonkram? Hmm but miltonkram surely wouldn't NK me in that situation so I don't think crossfire would buy it. Goddamn this is confusing.

what is more likely:
(a) sciberbia is mafia and suki can convince miltonkram/crossfire to vote him if crossfire/miltonkram dies
(b) miltonkram is mafia and suki can convince crossfire/sciberbia to vote him if sciberbia/crossfire dies

Well, considering that just yesterday she was deadset on lynching miltonkram, and was repeatedly saying how I am surely town, (b) seems more likely. Unless she really, really liked my (her accused scum) defense of miltonkram. (b) just seems more likely. The entire game she has been insisting I am town, but she "liked the idea of miltonkram being mafia". So I'd find this a surprising move from a townie suki as well.

I meant to say this yesterday: at this point the last scum benefits greatly from lynching anybody besides themself. It is typical of the final scum to throw suspicion on anyone possible. This is not true of townies who only benefit from lynching the one scum. Who has been the most bloodthirsty D4/D5? Suki has been totally down with voting miltonkram, golden, and now me. Miltonkram wasn't too sure about suki/golden on D4, and thinks me and crossfire are town. This was another thing that made me think he is town.

Obvious reasons. sciberbia has made it pretty clear he wants to lynch suki on the last day. Crossfire has most recently defended suki and accused miltonkram. Scum suki hopes she can get crossfire to lynch miltonkram with her.

I highly doubt that he would. Out of everyone remaining, sciberbia has made it clearest whom he wants to lynch. He wants to lynch suki.

If miltonkram NK's crossfire (the universal town read and expected kill target), miltonkram is very unlikely to get lynched on the last day. Sciberbia has made it clear he would much rather vote suki over miltonkram. And suki has shown some suspicions of sciberbia. The NK of crossfire is very unlikely to sway these opinions.

Basically, if miltonkram is somehow scum, he has a pretty stellar chance at winning by NK'ing crossfire. So if I die instead, I'd be shocked if miltonkram is scum.