|
@alan
I don't think mass roleclaim is a good idea. If we have a cop, we probably don't have a medic/jailkeepr, so I don't want to make cop come out before he judges it's the right time. Also, it's a semi-open setup, so it's pretty damn hard to figure out if anyone is lying.
Anyway, I've been kidna panicking a bit after seeing the trackd00r flip. I was looking foward to enjoying some post game talk, but now I'll just be happy if I don't feel like an idiot after this game.
Anyway, here are some reads on the 7 players left not named sciberbia:
short version:+ Show Spoiler +
alan - confirmed vigi
MJ/unforgiven - probably town
golden - probably town
s0Lstice - probably town
crossfire - probably town
miltonkram - idk
suki - kinda scummy
long version:
alan+ Show Spoiler +
confirmed vigi. Nobody else claimed the shot, and somebody obviously did it, so alan is for sure vigi.
golden+ Show Spoiler +
I'd be pretty shocked if golden were mafia. I honestly haven't even looked at his filter that much, but just from looking at roflwaffles's filter, I don't think golden can be mafia.
crossfire+ Show Spoiler +
Both confirmed scum attacked him, and tried to get him lynched. Also, the two confirmed scum are failry newbie (no offense) so I just don't see this as being a bus. Pretty definite he is town.
MJ/unforgiven+ Show Spoiler +
Nothing in these 2 filters is of much value, but as s0Lstice pointed out, both confirmed scum had no problem dumping suspicion on MJ. So I think it's pretty unlikely that he is scum.
s0Lstice+ Show Spoiler +
Hmm I guess it's possbile that s0Lstice just bussed the crap out of the other scum, and in hindsight it probably would have been a smart strategy for him to pull as mafia. And s0Lstice is a pretty smart player.
But he has played about as pro-town as you can get and his whole filter gives me a townie feel. I'm slightly paranoid that he could be mafia, but I really just don't see it.
miltonkram+ Show Spoiler +
I'm not saying that he looks really scummy, but I don't see why he can't be scum. The only major thing in his favor is his pretty good accusations of HeavOnEarth during D1. But I could maybe see him making that bus. I'll write more about him in another post.
suki+ Show Spoiler +
I feel it's pretty likely that suki is the last mafia. I've already written a lot on her case.
The only things really holding me back are the NK of austinmcc and her high activity D2. But I don't see how we can not lynch her just based on that. Maybe she just wanted to see if she could avoid one more lynch for the lulz? Idk..
So in response to s0Lstice's query, I'm totally down with lynching suki D3 (sorry suki).
|
The case against miltonkram
I think that suki is most likely to be the last scum. But if she flips town, the next person I'd want to lynch would be miltonkram. I don't think he's especially scummy, but he is not at the almost-definite-town status at which I place every player besides him and suki. I'm writing this case against him because nobody else seems to want to lynch him, and I'm worried he could survive to the end of the game as mafia.
First of all, I grant that his playstyle seems similar to his town from NMM XV, and that his filter gives off a townie vibe. But that's not conclusive evidence. Not the same level townie-evidence as for people like crossfire, golden, or MJ, who were mercilessly attacked by 2 confirmed scum on D1.
miltonkram's stances during D1+ Show Spoiler +ordering is roughly chronological trackdoor - neutral suki - suspicious crossfire - suspicious alan - "fairly decent" case against him roflwaffles - suspicious, but then backs off MJ - #1 on scumdar alan - very suspicious, but then backs off HeavOnEarth - would vote, then votes His suspicions on roflwaffles don't do anything to clear him in my mind. Nobody was really suspicious of roflwaffles at that point, and miltonkram backed off his suspicions reasonably quickly, so roflwaffles wasn't really in any danger based on miltonkram's actions. Otherwise, he throws suspicion onto a bunch of people that are town (assuming milton is last mafia): suki, crossfire, alan (kinda), MJ. This isn't damning but isn't exactly comforting either. Helping to Lynch HeavOnEarthMiltonkram does contribute to the lynch of HeavOnEarth, by putting HeavOnEarth into his "top 3" after only me and s0Lstice have accused him, and then applying the third vote to HeavOnEarth. This is certainly evidence in favor of miltonkram being town, but I could maybe see him pulling the bus as mafia. It would honestly be the smart move. And it wouldn't be the riskiest bus ever or anything. He originally listed HeavOnEarth as 1 of a list of 3, and it was after s0Lstice and I accused him already -- pretty safe townies to side with, but a bandwaggon of 3 doesn't assure a lynch. To me, a miltonkram bus of HeavOnEarth seems by far the most likely out of all possible busses.Putting the third vote on HeavOnEarth would definitely be a ballsy move, but maybe he judged it was the best choice. And if he is mafia, it probably was. Also here's some food for thought: On June 17 2012 11:17 Miltonkram wrote:
Maybe this is too WIFOMy, but I feel like the safe play for scum would have been to have one player voting HeavOnEarth in order to gain some of the town cred in case he got lynched and one player voting someone else in order to keep a little momentum towards a possible mislynch. This isn't a strong point, so my opinions aren't the only things hinging on this.
about the NK (worth reading I think)+ Show Spoiler +@s0Lstice First of all, as a point of fact, austinmcc did voice suspicions of suki during D1, so your logic as to why suki might have killed austinmcc doesn't hold. This is the the second time I've gotten the feeling you don't thoroughly read my posts. Tsk Tsk. Maybe it's a sign I shouldn't write so much :p Anyway, I've been thinking and thinking and thinking about the NK. It doesn't make a lot of sense no matter who ordered it. + Show Spoiler +But actually now that I think about it, all of the sensible NK targets voiced suspicions of suki: me, s0Lstice, alan, miltonkram. So maybe suki would have found some reason to kill austinmcc. Anyway, the best explanation I have come up with for the hit on austinmcc is that the last mafia thought that they could avoid getting lynched as long as there was no cop. And for whatever reason they thought austinmcc might be cop. Miltonkram is someone who can reasonably hope to avoid being lynched without a cop. But he was honestly a pretty good cop check last night. So maybe that's why he picked austinmcc over me/s0Lstice/alan. austinmcc does seem most likely to be cop out of those 4. Also, miltonkram was gone almost the entire night. Him being scum would totally fit into my theory about scum not submitting their NK until the last minute. Also look at this post from miltonkram. I found this to be really bad advice the second I read it. The point of a breadcrumb is for people not to notice it. Maybe he was fishing for the cop? On June 16 2012 07:34 Miltonkram wrote:
EBWOP:Breadcrumb your actions right at the end of the night. That way scum don't have a chance to catch your breadcrumb before they send in their night actions. Finally, this isn't exactly related to Miltonkram, but I think it's quite possible that the last mafia is roleblocker and RB'd austin last night. This would work out great for mafia if austin was vigi/cop/veteran. And it doesn't let us know the presence of a roleblocker. Maybe the mafia felt austin looked blue, and that's why he died?
IN SUMMARY
-- I am for lynching suki, and then miltonkram if she flips town
-- This isn't so much because miltonkram looks scummy, but that everyone else looks townie
-- I am obsessed with figuring out why austinmcc died, and I have a possible explanation
P.S. Every single time suki posts, I feel worse and worse about lynching her. But I think she is the only sensible choice.
P.P.S. @Miltonkram don't feel obliged to write a defense post to this. There's honestly not much to explain as most of your actions make good sense for a townie. Assuming we don't win D3, you'd have to convince me somebody else is more scummy than you for me not to push you D4. Maybe you could explain the breadcrumbing comment though.
|
@suki
I just have to say, if you are the last mafia, you are a total jerk :p You're making my life way more stressful than it needs to be right now.
Also, if/when it becomes clear that we are lynching you, please claim your 2 night actions if you are blue.
You're analysis about a "strong player" seems to suggest I or s0Lstice am mafia. I have to admit there is logic to what you are saying. It's more likely that the sneaky third scum would bus the 2 dead newbie confirmed scum, than that the 2 dead newbie confirmed scum would bus the third, sneaky, alive scum. That is why I am most suspicious of miltonkram after you. And I'd have to consider s0Lstice if both you and miltonkram flip town. But only after getting out of the hospital and recovering from my heart attack.
Anyway, I'll be going to bed soon and might not be posting for a while.
|
|
|
Hey guys - I just got up and got to work. I see there are some suspicions on me, but I'm at work until 6pm EST. So, I'll probably not be defending myself until early D3, assuming I'm still alive. Just wanted to let you know.
|
@crossfire, alan
I think s0Lstice already covered most of the relevant points and it seems like you (crossfire) didn't think I was mafia anyway. Do you still want to hear me explain my actions or would I just be wasting time? I'll at the very least explain my comments on vigilantes when I get home.
|
Just wrote up explanations of some of my actions that you guys pointed out. Here you go:
Crossfire's post analyzing the lynch of HeavOnEarth+ Show Spoiler +During N1, Crossfire made a post analyzing the who/how/when of the HeavOnEarth wagon: + Show Spoiler +On June 15 2012 14:24 Crossfire99 wrote:Ok now let's analyze this lynch. Solstice drew the first blood with these + Show Spoiler + On June 14 2012 10:07 s0Lstice wrote:Alright, so I went filter spelunking and explored every nook and cranny. My general impression at this moment is one of disappointment. I know it's rare to get good reads on day 1, but some people's filters are incredibly barren. If I had to lynch right now, here would be my suspects. HeavOnEarthHe's pretty lurky. His hard stance is on Golden, where he builds a case on the poor guy's intro post. Look at the case: Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:morning everyone  First off, id like to say im suspicious of everyone who tries to stay under the radar. I feel newer mafia players have a tendency to try and stay quiet. That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- On June 13 2012 09:43 O.Golden_ne wrote:On June 13 2012 09:25 austinmcc wrote:
-snip
I'm not looking to push lurkers early and stay on them for an entire day cycle, killing discussion, but they need to be considered and I'd rather be looking at them on earlier days than when we're close to/at LYLO/MYLO. agreed. NL is bad. Killing lurking is necessary. Lynching scum is great. Lets get the ball rolling and squeeze out the lurkers early so we can narrow things down later on. Looking forward to scumhunting, i'm happy with the deadline on this as its 10am for me in Aust, which means i'll be able to meet the deadlines for lynching in the mornings a little easier. I'll try my hardest this game to meet these deadlines and to contribute useful information rather than filler. Essentially i'm all for an agressive early game. I want to be able to establish some basic reads by the end of Day one, and if theres no-one who's appropriately scummy then we lynch a lurker. Golden Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. Think of it like this. Scum will be making cases against people on day 1...they have to. I looked at all the cases people have made, and this one stank especially bad. It's built entirely around a hello post. It has a very artificial feel to it. Also, he just posted this: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours? Townies always feel the pressure of the ticking clock. Half of our time being gone doesn't seem to trouble him. He hasn't really bothered to comment on what's been going on in the thread outside of his own reads. He's been on Mouldy Jeb's case as well. Here's some more recent(!) material: Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia. Confused? Me too. I think this dude has a chance at flipping scum. and this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 00:50 s0Lstice wrote:
Some housekeeping stuff first..
I am removing alan133 from my scum list. The main thing that had me suspicious was his strong-arm defense, but everything following that has been fine. I like that he is holding himself accountable for his style, and I want to see what he can do when not under pressure.
austin and suki have commented on crossfire99, and I have to say I agree. I was planning on wrighting a post similar to what suki has done. The cogent point is that he has long bouts of inactivity when he is both scum and town. He should get the same level of suspicion that every lurker gets, but nothing special beyond that I feel. His filter right now is pretty garbagey, and hard to get a read on. I wouldn't be upset if we lynched him, but I think we can do better.
Here is better: HeavOnEarth. Nothing has happened to change my initial opinion on him for the better. In fact, him buddying up to sciberbia in his latest post makes him look worse. Go read my case if you missed it. I'm not the only one to see him as suspicious, so I think there is plenty of traction here.
##vote HeavOnEarth . His case on Heavon was solid and good. It doesn't seem like a mafia bus attempt to me (it's too well thought out and puts legit pressure on Heavon), so I see him as a townie. Then alan joins the fun with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:00 alan133 wrote:I see the current pressure are easing off from me. I also realize I has pretty much ignored everyone else except for rolf and suki. @HeavOnEarth His first few points seem disconnected. None of them relates to each other: From FoSing Golden for his opening post, + Show Spoiler +And I thought rofl@me and suki@trap was bad later jumping to accusing Mouldy Jeb (he was an easy target), and then commenting on s0ltice's preception on lynch time + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 08:47 HeavOnEarth wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 08:38 s0Lstice wrote:
Just checking in guys. I'm going to make a post on my top scumreads in a few hours, as well as some errata. Lynch time is fast approaching and we really need to buckle down. ? lynch isn't for another 24 hours? . He also state that he is waiting for responses. Upon being debunked on Gold's read, he basically dismiss it similar the way suki has dismissed her case on trap, claiming they are trying to start conversation. In suki's case, this is still believable. Before her case there was no controversy, and very little to talk about. However, when Heave posted on Gold, there were already controversies + Show Spoiler + and he ignore them altogether. I interpret his motive is to lynch a lurker over an already presented scummy player, and this can hardly be town. Very Suspicious Right now, I find Heav and MJ were the best lynch candidates, and HeavOnEarth appears to be more scummy##unvote: Suki##vote: HeavOnEarthI am off to bed, it is 3 am right here. I will get up in 4 hours so we can get a successful lynch. Another refresh reveals more post from crossfire. My opinion on him has not swayed. . He did some good analysis on Heavon and defend himself against suki well, so I feel he is townie right now. Next suki comes to the party + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:58 suki wrote:HeavOnEarth: Okay, something really really sticks out to me in Heavon's first post, and it's not about golden. It's this particular line: Show nested quote +also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie.
thoughts? Above, I posted my opinions on Crossfire, where I had gone through pretty much his entire filter in his two previous games, and the big thing I noted was that Crossfire LURKED very hard in his first game as blue, and somewhat lurked in the second game as red. HeavOn clearly is talking about Crossfire's game as blue, 'He was a pretty talkative little townie'. This is clearly wrong. He continues his case against Crossfire later after sciberbia brings it up. This has already been labelled as suspicious. It's a big point against him that he waited until someone else pointed fingers at Crossfire, when he had so early established a read on Crossfire - a fairly in depth read as he had even looked at Crossfire's filters from previous games. The thing is, the case HeavOn makes against crossfire disregards the previous game filters. Crossfire, as mafia, was assertive actively pushed cases against other players. He also lurked quite a bit. Show nested quote +
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off.
HeavOn votes for Golden despite saying that his case against Golden is weak. He doesn't back off however, stating that the response was scummy and that the scummy thing about it was how golden was commenting on the time it would take to make his posts? Seems like a very strained argument to make. I see clear scum motivation in voting for golden. In my previous game as mafia, I harped on Miltonkram for his early vote against sciberbia. Even when my argument was convincingly rebutted, I continued to press my case against him finding any sort of scummy intent I could make up. Why? Because I didn't want to be wishy-washy. HeavOn's case against golden is that golden 'just feels off'. This makes Golden a 'solid lynch' to him. I'm out of time, but that's my insight into HeavOn. I feel that there can definitely be scum motivation behind his posts. I haven't had time to closely look at other people but for now HeavOn is clearly a scummier target than alan. ##unvote alan113##vote HeavOnEarth . Suki follows up with some more good analysis on Heavon and I see her also as town. Those three I mentioned above all brought solid analysis and new thoughts on Heavon, so I feel confident in seeing them as town for right now. Then Milton ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 04:59 Miltonkram wrote:
Oops, slept in a bit later than I'd planned. s0Lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you. HeavOnEarth looks like the best lynch candidate.
Everybody, I'd suggest you take a look at him. His filter is not particularly long, but I think there is enough scummy behavior there to warrant a vote.
##Vote: HeavOnEarth ), roflwaffle ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 05:09 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I noticed already that his play was scummy, however I felt like it was the easy way out, I was hoping to nail a more influential scum D1, but I guess that's just new player optimism... If he flips scum, I'm not sure what kind of information we're going to gain from it as his posts don't seem to link him to anyone.. and if he flips town then all we really know is that he was a poor townie.
I'll go with the flow because he's fairly blatant with his scumminess (real word?) but I'd like to keep an eye on Crossfire, as well as keeping Mouldy Jeb in mind for a D2 lynch.
##unvote Crossfire99
##vote HeavOnEarth
I'm not sure if I'll be on tonight, I'll do my absolute best to be on in case there's a swing of opinion. ), and Golden ( + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
in regards to HeavonEarth.
In relation to my:
a) knowing i'm town.
b) Him trying to bus me one the grounds of "seems like a solid case".
c) lacklustre contribution and no rebuttle to any arguments.
i feel like he see's a bandwagon forming and jumps on straight away.
#VOTE: HeavonEarth
i still maintain a #FOS on MouldyJeb
i still owe the group a comment on Crossfire99 but i honestly dont have time for it before work. ) all jump on the bandwagon without much new to add (not necessarily scummy in and of itself, there is only so much one can add based on one day's filter). I did notice a really weird thing about roflwaffle's post, though. He's upset that we are going to get too easy of a lynch and said that he knows Heavon is suspicious but thinks it's more worthwhile to attack someone with more influence like me (huh?, I've been under suspicion all day, if anything that makes people look at me more closely, there's no way I'm going to be influential). Also, his suspicion of Heavon up to that point consists of this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 02:44 roflwaffles55 wrote:
I'm going to post as though all of these people are scum, and the impact they have a chance to make if they are left alive. I think it will give a different way of thinking about it.
HeavOnEarth
His play is quite suspicious and his accusations and suspicions lackluster at best. He could just as easily be an awful townie as scum.
Overall he's been fairly ineffectual, but if he's hiding behind a mask of confusion and bad reads, he could be an annoyance as scum later on.
I believe that the most lynchable potential scum right now would be Crossfire99. I understand that there are already votes on HeavOnEarth, but if he really is that incompetent at bringing cases to the table, as a scum, why would he try to post them? He is suspicious to me, but not as suspicious as Crossfire. Unless he responds to the accusations in a convincing and collected manner soon, I strongly believe that he should be lynched.
##vote Crossfire99 . All of this suspicion came after solstice's case against Heavon and he adds nothing new to it except postulating that he could be an awful townie (we now know that's not true). This makes me suspicious of roflwaffle. This is followed by sciberbia's vote + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 07:56 sciberbia wrote:My thoughts on HeavOnEarth: I was originally somewhat suspicious of him for throwing suspicion onto a handful of easy targets, and then becoming wishy/washy about it. He has since made me more suspicious with his response and attitude towards golden. Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:
As for golden i admit my analysis was pretty damn bad LOL , but he didn't really have any other posts for me to provoke him with, and i still feel its a strong play to accuse lurkers of being scummy, just to get them to talk. The way he went about replying though felt really odd to me. For example, i don't really care if you're taking a few mins to write up a post. Why tell me about it(unless you're about to be majority lynched or something). Just feels off. First of all, he admits that his case was "pretty damn bad" and LOL's about it. I see this as slightly scummy. He is being ingratiating and agreeable, rather than firm, objective, and analytic. This is more typical of mafia than of townies. Next HeavOnEarth says that there were no other posts to provoke Golden with. The question I'm left asking myself is: why did HeavOnEarth feel that he had to attack Golden at all? He says it was strong play of him to "accuse lurkers of being scummy", but at the time of HeavOnEarth's accusation, golden didn't look lurky. Golden made 1 post in the first 4 hours of the game, and then HeavOnEarth accused him. 1 decent-sized post in the first 4 hours isn't lurky. Why was HeavOnEarth looking for a reason to "provoke him"? Finally, heavOnEarth refuses to back down from his suspicions of golden, and even ends up voting golden, but doesn't give any good reasons. He just says that golden's posting seems odd. Odd =/= scummy. It looks like he just arbitrarily picked a target to attack at the beginning and now won't back down. Overall, I think he has a good chance of being mafia and I'm happy with lynching him. ##Vote HeavOnEarth . He gives some good reasoning for his vote, but I feel it is too late in the bandwagon to say this makes him townie. It could be a mafia finally realizing that his partner is done for and needs to jump on to be less suspicious. I'll leave this as a null read for now. Then austin comes in and votes for me with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:28 austinmcc wrote:I think Heavon looks scummy. But his voting took off after he posted that he was going to be gone for auto repairs. And there's been very little pushback. I'm particularly worried by: (1) us going for the guy who basically said "Won't be around to defend myself," and (2) the lack of any pushback against him, when we had multiple targets recently. There could be some bussing going on, but we had a couple other juicy targets, and I wouldn't expect a bus in that situation. At the very least, my stance right now is that he doesn't look good, but the vast majority of the votes and comments on him seem to have occurred after he said he was leaving. I don't want to lynch him today based on that alone. See your comment towards him. Yes, his reads would help town. Yes, he ought to defend himself. But he may actually have been gone these last few hours, and I want to see his response before I lynch him. If it looks bad, there's D2. I think I'm saying the same thing over and over, so I'll knock it off. Apart from those basic statements, I'll note this. He DOES fit into a category of people trying to look like they're scumhunting but not. The 1 post suspicion of Golden, his comment on MJ - Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? his chiming in on crossfire - + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 20:15 HeavOnEarth wrote:@Sciberbia in addition to what u said on crossfire, notice that he 1) only replies when called out. Every message he is replying to someone, not making his own points aside from his opening. 2) Every one of his posts feels like complete filler to me. he is trying to LOOK helpful, without actively contributing anything + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 02:06 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:00 roflwaffles55 wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 01:56 Crossfire99 wrote:Just woke up. I'll start with that only as a last resort will I be for lynching a lurker Day 1. If we can get some good scum hunting done Day 1 we will have a more productive lynch than just a random lurker. Now onto what has been happening. On the whole suki and trapdoor issue: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 12:44 suki wrote:Is it just me or is trackd00r coming off as scummy already? Show nested quote +
If I understood correctly, it doesn't mean that I would stop any lynch that I didn't mention on my analysis. Just because I have a candidate for lynch, it doesn't imply that I discard any other possibility.
It's something related to common sense. If any other cases are convincing enough, I'll throw my vote there in the case I can't get a majority. In the other hand, if we end up like RNG lynching (which is a bad idea), any other poster that could be doing silly mistakes, or even a player practically saying ''hey guys, I'm mafia, lynch me'' that's when it goes against my mindset. Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch.
This post screams to me that he's trying to be super cautious with his words, so that he'll have a safety net if/when he ever changes a vote or bandwagons on someone else. He throws out some 'obvious' examples of reasons of what wouldn't agree with him, and even mentions that he would follow through on a read, even if it that means a no lynch.BUT WAIT! Just ONE post previous to that he says this: Show nested quote +I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. ... Dude. You try to take a firm stance against something, and then you do the most scummy wishy-washy-ness thing ever the very next post. You're clearly informed about mafia as you brought up the idea of a day 1 RNG lynch, and being against a no lynch is not a difficult or complicated policy to hold. I feel that such a simple logical slip only happens if you're trying to play it safe and keep your options open. ##vote trackd00r I think suki was just being aggressive. I admit that I found trapdoor's response post to be weird, but then I realized that English is probably not his native language, so I reread it a few times. I don't see a contradiction in there, he is just explaining that he would try to stop a lynch that he really believed was on a townie. I'll give suki the benefit of the doubt on this case and say she is an over eager townie for now. On roflwaffle and alan: + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:28 roflwaffles55 wrote:I woke up this morning to the arguments made towards trackd00r, and while the arguments made against him weren't particularly convincing, his defense was a little bit lackluster as well. However, I would like to bring your attention to someone else that is acting quite scummy as it stands. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 13:05 alan133 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:12 roflwaffles55 wrote:On June 13 2012 11:03 alan133 wrote:
Good morning everyone. Looks like the first thing I am going to do in the office is to play mafia on TL. I don't recognize anyone here since this is my first game, well except for s0Lsitce since he is in the game I read. That's my brief introduction, and habitually in the beginning of any game, GLHF.
I am new and am unsure how to proceed with the game, but my current strategy is to wait for more post to come. Currently I have no FoS. That also mean I do not trust anyone yet. What are your thoughts on what's been posted as of yet? On the inactive/lurkers lynch + Show Spoiler +
I believe inactive players/lurkers are generally anti-town/bad town play in any mafia game, so lynching them isn't a bad idea (Since I believe d1 lynch is good, refer below), if there aren't better candidates of course.
On the day 1 lynch/no lynch + Show Spoiler +
I agree on lynching day 1 based on my experience with other mafia games (outside TL) with similar setup. By reading other games on TL I also notice the current meta game is to lynch when there are more players, as it gives townies clues.
I am off to lunch, will be commenting on my thoughts later as I see some interesting posts/votes already. His first post puts him on the bandwagon with his opinion on the inactives and lurkers, and is generally a contentless post with little to no controversy. Otherwise, nothing to bring the spotlight to him at all. While this is not by any means evidence of scummy play, there comes to attention the next post he makes. Show nested quote +On June 13 2012 15:40 alan133 wrote:My thoughts on suki's case: + Show Spoiler +Any possibility is valuable, but if there is something absurdly wrong, I'll call it, even if that means a no lynch. I won't accept a NO LYNCH unless I believe we may have a serious mislynch coming. I started writing before I refresh and saw s0lstice's post. As he already pointed it out, there are no contradictions between the two statements. trackd00r merely states that NL is bad unless it is a "serious" mislynch in both highlighted sentence. If I am missing something, please correct me. Also, Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 10:35 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, glad to see we've got a bit of activity already.
In NMM XV we actually had a decent discussion about no-lynches (involving me making a fool of myself) and how they can actually be beneficial in certain setups. That being said, we don't know for certain if we'll have any modkills so we should leave no-lynches off the table until we hit the unlikely scenario that a no-lynch is beneficial for the town.
Town, the best way to contribute is just to get posting. Let everyone know what your thoughts are. Did someone post something suspicious? Let us know about it. Do you think the town is making a bad move? Let us know about it. If a townie lurks he/she is letting down his/her entire team. So don't do it, K? I'm sooooooooper serious. Like sooooper, soooooooooooper serious.
Hey sciberbia, remember this
##Vote: sciberbia
...heh heh heh
Is it me or you are not actually + Show Spoiler +soooooooooooooooooper serious ? I personally think (well played) townies are not the ones that bluffs around, let alone voting someone without any reason at all? Generally, fooling around, to me, is anti-town/ bad town play. My current opinion + Show Spoiler +FMPOV, suki's case was most probably based on a misunderstanding, but (s)he could very well did it intentionally hoping for a bandwagon leading to a mislynch. Note that I am merely listing the possibilities, I do not FoS anyone yet, which can also mean that I do not trust anyone yet. This is the post that really got me wondering. How by now can you have no suspicions? There has been quite a few suspicious decisions by several people, giving you more then enough time to form a case against someone, or at least apply some pressure. His statement about trackd00r comes after s0lstice, leaving his opinion tied to a fairly influential player and just reiterating what s0lstice said with no additional evidence or opinionated comments. Again, seeming like he's contributing without actually bringing anything to the table. He throws around some suspicion towards Miltonkram, however not enough to constitute a case or apply any pressure, just enough to make people go filter milton and consider what he might have done, which yet again, leaves him out of the spotlight. The last statement he makes in this post is the most suspicious and the largest tell of his indecision and lack of real input. He restates his opinion that suki's case is a misunderstanding, again, nothing of value. He then continues to explain that he has no FoS and that he doesn't trust anyone, leaving his options open, and having no real contrary opinions. His current play is anti-town at best, as he hasn't brought any of his thoughts to the table, and has only left ambiguous and bandwagoning answers to keep attention on those with controversial opinions. I think roflwaffle is jumping a little too hard on alan here. It is like 1/3 of the way through Day 1. We are not going to have a lot to work with and consequently we aren't going to really know what to think of people until we get more information. Therefore, I feel alan is playing smartly by not rushing to find every little thing that might possibly be suspicious and throw a vote on someone because of it. On Milton: He was just joking around. If he doesn't stop then I'll start getting suspicious of him. As for my current thoughts: The bolded part of this post by austin makes me suspicious of him. + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2012 22:23 austinmcc wrote:
I don't read those posts as contradictory, believe the second one clarifies the first and explains that, while he'd consider a NL, the standard is higher than "Town is lynching someone that isn't one of my top couple reads."
That said, even if the two statements are entirely contradictory, I don't really see anything scummy in that. More inclined to see contradictions concerning votes and reads as scummy, where someone has stated one thing but then has to take a party line, rather than super early statements concerning a no lynch. There's no agenda to push on that issue. Two completely contradictory statements without reasoning for the change is very suspicious. This is a good way to catch scum. They know the alignment of every person, so they have to make cases that they know are wrong (excluding bussing). This can lead to contradictory posts to make them better fit in with the current town mindset. Austin, why don't you think that contradictory statements are suspicious? We need more information, and the only way to get that information is by pressuring people, scum starts with an information advantage and the faster we work to even that out, the better position we'll be in. I agree that we need more information and we get that from pressuring people, but we need to do that smartly. If too many people are throwing around minor accusations all the time, it just confuses the town and allows mafia to sit back and laugh. That is what happened in NMM XIII when I was mafia. Ask austin, he was in it too. On June 14 2012 03:38 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 02:45 s0Lstice wrote:
Crossfire99, what do you think of what I said about Mouldy Jeb?
Roflwaffles55, same question. Yeah Mouldy is acting really weird. He needs to get active to explain himself. Everything he has said so far lacks good reasoning. On June 14 2012 03:50 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 03:24 s0Lstice wrote:On June 14 2012 02:02 Crossfire99 wrote:
--snipped
Be careful roflwaffle, votes are only easily removable if you are around to remove them. You never know what might happen. Also, votes early on in the day cycle that don't really mean much followed by complete disappearance during a controversial lynch can be scum tactic to avoid making mistakes in a heated debate that occurs last minute.
What an odd thing to say. Your message boils down to: don't vote because you might not be around later, and when that happens you are going to look scummy. Discouraging voting for such an arbitrary reason looks kind of scummy. Also, this hall-monitor stuff is a comfortable way for scum to post and have it look like they are pro-town. I never said don't vote. I just said be careful about throwing your votes around willy-nilly under the premise that you are going to remove them later. I never even said don't do that. I just don't want someone sticking someone else with a vote for flimsy reasons that ends up sealing a lynch because they couldn't get back in time to change it. That was the entire point of those two sentences. As for the mention of the scum tactic, I'm just saying that sometimes scum can not take part in big discussions later in the day by voting early and then disappearing. I'm just trying to help roflwaffle, by trying to get him to think about taking his vote seriously and having good reasons for whatever he does. If no one holds anyone accountable mafia can just breeze on by. 3) notice his defensive, and meek tone; in addition to his low post count. he's obviously afraid to attract attention to himself 4) he was lurking for a LONGGG time before he finally decided to post . What u thought we all forgot about that? Not much there. His bit on crossfire is way more robust than his bit on golden or MJ, but still doesn't feel like a whole lot of scumhunting for a day. Again though, I want to wait on him.
That leaves me with cross. ##Vote: Crossfire99What I'd ask of everyone is to show me where Crossfire has done any scumhunting. He posted a little, dropped off the face of the earth, came back, responded to everyone's comments towards him, but never even gave us a single read throughout the day. Nobody looked scummy, because he really just didn't comment on ANYONE. I'm confused as to how that can be towny behavior, and he dropped in, spent time responding to all these people, but spent 0 characters doing any kind of hunting himself. Lurking is bad, but you can lurk and contribute when you pop up. HeavOnEarth didn't contribute when he came back. Crossfire didn't contribute when he came back, except addressing our concerns about him. Between the timing of the votes on HeavOn and the lack of any push on him, I'd rather go with Crossfire today. . Like I mentioned earlier, I think austin's reasoning when related to me gets clouded a little by our last game. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now and hopefully he'll come around, but if he continues this tunneling unnecessarily then I'll have to reconsider. Trackdoor then comes in and votes last with this + Show Spoiler + On June 15 2012 08:52 trackd00r wrote:
I was checking Heaven's filter.
I must admint that he looks suspicious at this stage of the game. I was expecting from him a more detailed analysis of his play, since he stated that he has more experience in playing mafia.
I dislike the fact that he took the most easy target to pressure (golden), instead of trying to outline the other players, He also adds some points against CF, but isn't really big of a deal.
Although I share some suspicions with him, I see that he is not contributing at the same level as the rest of us are. I don't really think that it will be that much of a loss if he flips town. If that is the case, he have a whole post history behind us too see who bandwagoned and who tried to hunt down mafia
As I don't want a NL, I'll change my vote to heaven.
##Unvote: O.Golden_ne
##Vote: HeavOnEarth . He is now just jumping on the obvious bandwagon. I'll give a null read on this until I can go through his filter. I think that leaves everyone except for me and Heavon. I won't even bother quoting Heavon. He just went with a weak vote on Golden and then got lynched. And I missed the lynch for the reasons stated above. Ok. That's all the time I have for now (I should have gone to bed an hour and a half ago, but whatever). I don't know if I'll be back in time before the night ends to post some more thoughts, so consider this my contribution for now. If I survive the lynch, I'll look into roflwaffle's filter and get a better read on him. I encourage you all to do the same and let me know what you think whether you agree or disagree. First of all, I just want to point out that I think you, Crossfire, missed a couple of my early posts on HeavOnEarth: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 14:10 sciberbia wrote:HeavOnEarthI don't have all that much too analyze with HeavOn Earth, but a couple things look scummy throws suspicion on several easy targets + Show Spoiler +My main problem with him is that he has halfheartedly thrown suspicion onto golden, MJ, and crossfire. All three of these players were rather quiet (at least initially) and relatively easy targets. As s0sltice said, heavOnEarth's actual cases were unimpressive. Here are heavOnEarth's scumhunting posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 23:52 HeavOnEarth wrote:...That said O.Golden_ne looks the most suspicious to me- *quotes Golden* Is there anything even remotely helpful in this post? Everyone knows NL is bad. he seems to be posting for the sake of it also, i checked his last game, (he was townie) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=92568 u can tell his tone is completely different, and he is generally more helpful. also id like to point out crossfire is completely inactive, whereas in past games he was a pretty talkative little townie. thoughts? On June 14 2012 02:39 HeavOnEarth wrote:As for my suspicions, golden still hasn't replied, and there seems to be a lot of random fluff RIGHT AFTER my accusation, by both Mouldy Jeb AND crossfire( oh hey there nice of u to suddenly wake up ) this is a common mafia tactic, to throw the spotlight off someone being accused. check out Mouldy Jeb's posts, and accusations Show nested quote +On June 14 2012 00:20 Mouldy Jeb wrote:
nope roffle that was a gut feeling about you that why I stated I have no evidence Why would someone try to direct suspicions with NO reasoning? And now he becomes wishy/washy + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 09:32 HeavOnEarth wrote:
was sort of waiting for MJ to post something after he was like hurr durr ima post soon. i took a look at his previous game though and his posts seem consistent from when he was townie. hes really not helping at all, and definitely still looks scum, but it feels like poor town play rather than mafia.
as for golden im still undecided since he hasnt posted anything what the fuck -_-. why sign up if ur not gonna fucking play
but i guess i doubt hes mafia, i would've expected at least a simple reply to my accusations if he was mafia by now. but it seems he just doesnt give a fuck
@_@ idk. kinda confused at this point In this post he becomes wishy/washy about his suspicions on MJ and golden. In particular he says "as far as golden im still undecided". What? Before, golden seemed most suspicious to heavOnEarth. Only recently has he become undecided. This is pretty wishy/washy. The only reason I don't see this as super scummy is that he voluntarily adjusted his reads; nobody asked him to clarify them. My suspicions on HeavOnEarth are tempered by some of the boldness in his filter, such as -- saying "it doesn't matter if your suggestions are completely bad" -- his questioning s0Lstice about the lynch not being for 24 hours -- his abrasive summary of how MJ and golden have been playing Overall, I'd say HeavOnEarth is somewhat suspicious On June 14 2012 17:27 sciberbia wrote:
Personally, I'd like to vote for suki, crossfire, or HeavOnEarth. I have no read on MJ or golden. I would not like to lynch alan.
the hour in between my post on suki and my post on crossfire/heavOnEarth
+ Show Spoiler +
was spent writing the post. I just wanted to get some thoughts out there, and split up my posts to make them easier to swallow, much like you did in your splitting up of posts in accusing me.
"soft defense" of HeavOnEarth
+ Show Spoiler +
I think the term "soft defense" is pretty misleading. I listed him as one of the three people I would vote. However, I wasn't too sure about any candidate, and least sure about HeavOnEarth. I listed what I found townie about each candidate as well as what I found scummy. You'll notice that I pointed out one townie line of suki's as well. As to why I read those statements as townie, it's because boldness is generally a townie attribute.
asking s0Lstice about miltonkram
+ Show Spoiler +
I was in the process of thining about who might be mafia if it's not suki, and I was thinking that miltonkram was next most likely after suki.
I saw s0Lstice make a scumhunting post in which he suggested he would be going to bed soon. I really respect s0Lstice's opinion, and I think he is townie. I wanted his honest opinion on miltonkram before he went to sleep. That's all there is to it.
NK analysis+ Show Spoiler +
I really like NK analysis. austinmcc died for a reason, and I want to know what it was. Knowing whether or not the last mafia is a roleblocker could certainly prove useful. And it helps explain why I think austinmcc was killed: he looked blue to mafia.
@alan
+ Show Spoiler +
As s0Lstice pointed out, I've been suspicious of suki all game.
I thinks s0Lstice is townie for his general townie vibe and large contributions to the death of confirmed scum. He was the driving force behind the HeavOnEarth lynch.
I disagree with your read on Golden. I don't think HeavOnEarth's attacks on him look like a bus.
I'm not saying miltonkram is really scummy, but I think it's plausible that he is mafia.
Sorry, my question about 3 NKs was a joke. 3 NKs would be completely overpowered.
My comments on the vigilante situation
+ Show Spoiler +I don't see what I did that is so suspicious or logically fallacious. I'll try to explain more: On June 16 2012 09:16 sciberbia wrote:
@s0lstice
I don't think it makes too much a difference whether vigi claims or not. Vigi will obviously claim if in danger of being lynched, and we will obviously believe them unless there is a cc (in which case it's gg). So the only way vigi can ever get lynched is if it comes down to 3/4 players left and the scum fakeclaims vigi. So I don't think it can possibly hurt for vigi to wait until 5/6 players left before claiming.
I think there is a very slight benefit to vigi not claiming today. The benefit is that scum has fewer good NK options.
Overall, I think it'd be very slightly beneficial for vigi to wait till 5/6 players left before claiming. But it's not at all a big deal, and if vigi judges that the knowledge that they (the vigi) is confirmed is helpful to town, I have no problem with that. This analysis is all under the assumption that there can only be one vigi. Given that assumption, I think it can't hurt for the vigi to wait until 5/6 players left to claim. I don't think anyone had a problem with this post. On June 16 2012 09:57 sciberbia wrote:
crap just realized there could potentially be two vigis. So my previous thoughts about cc'ing vigi and scum fakeclaiming vigi don't fully apply. Still, I think it is most likely that there is only 1 vigi, and I don't think it really matters whether or not he claims today. Here I realize that we could potenially have two vigis, so previous analysis no longer full applies. I don't think anyone could have a problem with this either. Here are my thoughts on thinking that a (potential) second vigi should claim: -- I didn't want it to come down to LYLO and then have scum say "I'm vigi. I shot roflwaffles N1 too." And then not know if he's fakeclaiming -- If scum were going to fakeclaim the second vigi, I think it'd be beneficial to make them do it sooner rather than later. Force them to make the committment now rather than leave their options open -- If we are going to clear alan as confirmed vigi, we need to be sure that there was not some other vigi that shot roflwaffles -- If we do actually have 2 vigis which shot roflwaffles, I see no harm in telling them both to claim Oh, I literally just realized what you're all probably upset about. I didn't want a one-shot vigi to claim before using his shot. I was just assuming in my mind that if we had 2 vigis, they both would have shot roflwaffles. I see now what you all found so suspicious. Of course a one-shot vigi should not claim before using their shot.Let me know if this is stil unclear.
Anyway, I'm going to be afk for about 2 hours. Let me know if you're unsatisfied with anything.
|
yea good idea.
I've only read through it once and I have to go in like 5 minutes so here are some brief thoughts:
The mod warning on unforgiven seems like good evidence. I originally thought the replacement of MJ was evidence in his favor, because one of the mods said "he will be modkilled/replaced(probably replaced)" and I didn't think the mods would even consider modkilling a mafia. But you're right, I think we should have expected a modkill (or at least replacement) on unforgiven if he was town.
I'm not buying into your filter analysis on MJ too much just because of the really small sample size.
On Unforgiven though, I could definitely seem him doing some intentional lurking as mafia. I also really like how the kill of austinmcc would fit with him. Maybe he asked for opinions on austinmcc to see if anyone thought he was scummy before killing him?
I forgot about the mafia coaching. I think it's much less likely that the two confirmed scum would make the comments they did on MJ if they listened to mafia coach. I have been thinking to myself that of all the mafia to bus D1, MJ would be a great choice.
Overall, I think your case has merit, but I'm not as convinced as you are. Right now my list of 3 would be suki/unforgiven/miltonkram. If I'm alive tomorrow I'll think about it more, but I really have to go atm.
|
|
|
a bunch of random things:
@alan
I think the matter of if/when cops and jailkeepers should out is subject to their judgement. A lot of it depends on who their innocents are, how many innocents they have, and how likely they think they themselves are to be NK'd. But you're suggestions seem reasonable.
@cop
Don't you dare let us lynch you without claiming your checks.
@jailkeeper
I only recently realized that jailkeeper can prevent kills by jailkeeping the last mafia. So, the person you jailkept N2 is confirmed townie, and the person you jailkept N1 is likely townie. Make sure to read zelblade's post explaining it and PM a coach or the hosts if you don't fully understand the rules. I didn't know about the ability to block kills, and this is quite important. The jailkeeper functions as combination of medic and cop now. Also, don't you dare let us lynch you without claiming your night actions
@everyone
check your PMs Strongly consider claiming a RB if you were RB'd. The only downside to claiming is the risk of exposing a jailkeeper.
@golden
Is it just me or are you claiming scum with this quote? Sorry if you've already addressed this somewhere.
On June 15 2012 06:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Looks like i'm going to have to do a little defence before the end of this day
I'm not really impressed with the case on me, if i get bussed off by the mafia and you see i flip scum i ask you consider HeavonEarth as a prime candidate or lynch.
I'll be doing some thinking about lynch candidates and I'll post my thoughts before sleeping. I want to hear some opinions on unforgiven.
|
Here are my reads:
alan is confirmed vigilante.
crossfire is surely town. Both confirmed scum tried damn hard to get him lynched. Also, he calls out roflwaffles early in N1.
golden is almost surely town. HeavOnEarth spent most of D1 attacking him, and I really can't see an inexperienced/unconfident scum taking that route.
i think miltonkram is probably town+ Show Spoiler +
I still think it's possible that he is mafia only because there is no extremely strong evidence to the contrary. But it's unlikely. First of all, his attack on HeavOnEarth D1 has to be counted in his favor. He made some solid contributions to getting HeavOnEarth lynched. Next, it also seems out of character for him to NK austinmcc. I'd really have expected him to NK me or s0Lstice. Finally, his whole filter has a pretty townie vibe.
So, I think miltonkram is probably town
I'm leaning town on suki+ Show Spoiler +I made a case on her during D2 and here is what I listed as suspicious about her: -- her first case on trackd00r and how she backed down on it -- her stances on alan -- her stances on MJ and crossfire -- scummy defense of HeavOnEarth -- one of her comments on me -- accuses trackd00r N1 when roflwaffles was more suspicious I still think this is all suspicious. On D1, she contributed toward a possible mislynch of alan or trackd00r, didn't do anything on the cases of MJ or crossfire, and delayed more than anything the correct lynch of HeavOnEarth. However, I'm getting the same feeling with her as I did before we mislynched trackd00r. That while there is a lot of circumstancial evidence aginst her, there isn't any truly conclusive evidence, and it's possible she is just a victim of circumstance. In my mind, there are a few really good pieces of evidence that suki is town: NK of austinmcc + Show Spoiler +
I just really don't see suki making this NK. I don't think the mafia coach would have suggested this NK to suki, and I highly doubt she would have proposed the idea on her own. Not only does it seem out of character to make such an odd choice of NK, but I think I am right in saying suki was being collectively viewed as one of the most suspicious people during N1.
She would need to get mislynches on people seen as scummier than her. And austinmcc could potentially have been subject to a mislynch. I truly feel that suki would have NK'd s0Lstice, myself, miltonkram, or alan.
Finally, suki has been very active this entire game, and I'm sure that if she were mafia, she'd be active in the mafia QT as well. I don't think she'd have the mods panicking that she wouldn't get the NK in. So I think the whole NK of austinmcc is very good evidence in favor of suki being town.
refusal to give up and general townie vibe + Show Spoiler +
At several points over the last couple days, suki has looked sure to be next on the lynch list. Especially when myself and s0Lstice were both attacking her as the number 1 target. Yet she has if anything grown more active. I don't think she'd be putting such an effort into the game if she knew it was pretty much over. Also, the language of her posts have read as increasingly townie to me throughout the game. I don't think she'd come off as this townie to me if she were mafia.
So, I am going to look past the circumstancial evidence, and conclude that I'm leaning town on suki
I think unforgiven_ve is very likely mafia
+ Show Spoiler +the NK of austinmcc + Show Spoiler +In case you guys haven't noticed by now, I really like to analyze NKs. Especially when we are down to 1 mafia calling all the shiots The thing I like most about this case is that the NK of austinmcc really fits here. I honestly would have expected unforgiven to NK miltonkram or s0Lsice, but it wouldn't be out of character for him to completely ignore the mafia QT and NK austinmcc. He is very sure of himself. He also tried to get some opinions on austinmcc during N1: On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55.
They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case".
On June 16 2012 05:57 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
to sciberbia and s0lstice, you guys being very good analyst and posters. i want you please read austincc's filter, be in his place, he is(should be) pretty confident about his posting skills, the avoiding of the Heaven issue, he kept his vote on crossfire and relys on his defense/persuassive skills.
On June 16 2012 06:04 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
ebwop: i want to point out im not making a conclusive acussation on austin, i just want you guys to analize a little how he is playing.
It makes a lot of sense for mafia to try to gauge the town's opinion on a target before NK'ing him. If there is a lot of suspicion towards austinmcc, unforgiven surely wouldn't want to kill him. s0Lstice said that his "cursory opinion was that austinmcc was town" and I didn't comment until the very end of the night (also with a townie read). So it makes sense that unforgiven would then shoot austinmcc (looks green to s0Lstice; nobody else jumped on the oppurtunity to attack austin; presumably looked blue to unforgiven) Look at what unforgiven says. He puts austinmcc in his top two, explicitly asks for the opinions of influential townies, and then pointing out that his accusation is not conclusive, but he just wants to see our analysis. Makes perfect sense if he is considering NK'ing austinmcc. Another thing that fits with this theory: On June 16 2012 03:09 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
In case i die, my 2 "best" reads (so far) are austincc and roflwaffles55.
They were trying to push a lynch on Crossfire, seeing as this wasnt working they decided a Bus from roflwaffles55 and austin will kept his target "just in case".
We still have 6 more hours till night ends right? Looks like he is holding off on the NK and just wants to make sure he doesn't miss the deadline. Finally, the scrambling of the mods to get all the night actions makes a lot of sense for unforgiven. He doesn't do a lot of communicating, in thread or out. I'm not sure he'd even have went to the mafia QT after replacing MJ. And he was busy/lurky all night. AND it looks like he was waiting until the last second to decide if austinmcc was a good NK. Extreme lurkiness + Show Spoiler +
I am generally a bit soft on lurkers. But, all the active players are giving me a pretty good townie vibe. This is when it really makes sense to lynch a lurker. Lynch somebody who hasn't been working hard to earn your trust all game with contributions to town. Lynch someone whose filter is so small, you can't tell whether their posts are scummy or not. 6 out of 7 of the remaining players have given town many, many posts to analyze for possible scummy play. But none of them look particularly scummy. So you lynch the 1 guy that has refused to give you anything to analyze. MJ/unforgiven.
Also, I could totally see both MJ and unforgiven intentionally lurking. MJ has lurked as townie in past and been mislynched for it. So maybe he thought he'd lurk again in the hopes we'd assume he's town. And if unforgiven were mafia, I could see him
a) not wanting to put much effort into a game where he is outnumbered 8 to 1
b) making the decision to try to lurk for a win
Not getting modkilled + Show Spoiler +
I think this is some decent evidence against him. His situation was different than crossfire's. He didn't show much interest in actually playing. If he were townie, I suspect he would be modkilled.
D1 bussing with MJ + Show Spoiler +I think s0Lstice covered this pretty well. The bussing of MJ on D1 was pretty weak (and wishy/washy) and didn't make it much more likely that MJ would get lynched. Let's roughly rank some potential buses on how much they actually contributed toward getting their target killed: -- s0Lstice on HeavOnEarth (confirmed not bus) -- alan on HeavOnEarth -- sciberbia on roflwaffles (yes I'm biased  ) -- alan on roflwaffles -- sciberbia on HeavOnEarth -- miltonkram on HeavOnEarth -- HeavOnEarth on golden -- roflwaffles on crossfire -- HeavOnEarth on crossfire -- suki on HeavOnEarth -- golden on HeavOnEarth -- crossfire on roflwaffles -- unforgiven on roflwaffles I'm sure I've missed some, and the ranking isn't really important. What's important is the perspective: where do the potential buses of HeavOnEarth/roflwaffles on MJ rank? At the very bottom. Maybe right above unforgiven on roflwaffles. They did not contribute much at all toward actually getting him killed. These buses don't seem nearly as risky as any of the others. HeavOnEarth/roflwaffles didn't have a lot of thread influence to begin with. And their attacks on MJ were hardly committed, as s0Lstice pointed out. So it was wrong of me to clear MJ based on these weak attacks. claiming VT + Show Spoiler +Minor point imo. Here is miltonkram's post on it: On June 19 2012 08:44 Miltonkram wrote:
What purpose is there in claiming VT? If a player is vanilla they should be happy to take a bullet for our blue roles. Claiming vanilla does nothing for town.
What does it do? Firstly, it makes it less suspicious when Unforgiven isn't shot during a night cycle. Secondly, it keeps Unforgiven from committing completely to information. Any actions a VT takes have the built in defense, "but I didn't have complete information."
...
There is absolutely no reason for VT to claim VT. Lynch this guy. s0Lstice thought he was mafia + Show Spoiler +
First of all, s0Lstice is a pretty smart dude. And he was townie. And now he's dead.
s0Lstice wasn't the perfect NK for mafia. He was a likely subject of protection from medic/jailkeeper. Additionally, he didn't look blue at all. Additionally, if unforgiven were hypothetically NOT mafia, having s0Lstice around for D3 would help to push another mislynch. So why did he die?
The NK of s0Lstice makes perfect sense if Unforgiven is mafia. Do you really think unforgiven would be able to avoid getting lynched today if s0Lstice were still in the game? I doubt it.
In conclusion, I think unforgiven is likely the last mafia.
##Vote unforgiven_ve
|
on Xatalos's post
I saw the original post before it was edited. I think s0Lstice either misinterpreted Xatalos's post or read too much into it. The only thing of interest was that zelblade has been slipping information in the obs QT. But I could definitely see him doing this regardless of who is mafia. So I don't see this as evidence on unforgiven.
|
@suki
I'm pretty sure Xatalos's post went something like this:
Hi s0Lstice. I've just been following the game a bit and posting reads in the obs QT. It's a shame I can't post them here because zelblade has been slipping information like crazy.
oh now I see how you may misinterpret it. I'm pretty damn sure that Xatalos was implying that zelblade was slipping information in the obs QT. Hosts slip information in obs QT's all the time.
|
Unforgiven's response didn't do anything for me. I'm not surprised, because my primary points of accusation are points that you cannot easily explain away. He has a lot of text, but doesn't say many things of substance. To summarize his post:
1+2) the mods had good reason not to modkill him
3) He wouldn't lurk as mafia again seeing as he did it in the past
4) Claiming VT made sense
5) His read on austin was just a hunch
6) D1 bussing doesn't make sense
7/8) Nothing really new
None of his arguments do much to convince me. He doesn't give any great reasoning for the mod-warning. I don't buy Point 3 -- I could definitely see him lurking as mafia again, especially if he is actually busy. He didn't say anything to convince me that his claiming VT helped town.
And I really don't get his comment on D1 bussing. He says that scum bussing on D1 is ridiculous in a mini newbie game. But then he lists suki as a town read, myself and suki as neutral, and miltonkram as scummy. What? If bussing is really that ridiculous, then everybody should look town to him except suki.
I also dislike his reads. How can crossfire possibly be more suspicious than suki? And he liked crossfire's case on me? Crossfire himself didn't like it, nor did s0Lstice. @Unforgiven I'd be interested to hear what you find suspicious about me. I'd have expected a townie unforgiven to read me as town. Maybe unforgiven just hasn't been reading the thread much, but his reads were great during XV and seem somewhat bad this game.
Finally, the general tone and length of his defense post suggest to me that he is scum.
What I'd expect from a townie unforgiven
-- If he announces that he's going to lurk, he'll lurk regardless of whether or not he is accused
-- If he does pop back into the thread, he'll scold people for being dumb and not provide a lot of reasoning
-- He'd make some good reads and sound confident about them
What I'd expect from a mafia unforgiven
-- Decides to lurk, but then defends himself when accused
-- Make some less than persuasive arguments because his heart isn't really in it. He knows he is wrong.
His defense seems more consistent with a mafia unforgiven.
IN SUMMARY
Unforgiven's defense has done nothing to dissuade me from voting him today.
I was also unimpressed with his case on miltonkram. I'll probably be posting some of my thoughts on it tonight, provided miltonkram doesn't beat me to it.
|
I was really unimpressed by Unforgiven's case on miltonkram. Here are my thoughts:
on backing off of alan+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 17:58 Miltonkram wrote:
I'm going to back down from my pressure on alan based on this post.
...
It looks like he's a non-native English speaker. I can understand him having difficulty with the language, let alone conveying a tone that pressures other players. If that's the case I would like to hear more of what he has to say. He's shown a willingness to think deeply and consider all possible lines of play that I think may be valuable to the town. By no means am I clearing him of suspicion, but there is a certain townie logic to some of his actions now that I think more about it. I think we have several better lynch targets anyway. I'll outline who I will support for lynch in my next post. I see your point about him possibly trying to gain friends by being a "good samaritan". Honestly, I was surprised at how easily people backed off alan. Here's a quote of myself summarising opinions on alan: + Show Spoiler +On June 14 2012 17:18 sciberbia wrote:
suspicious: suki, s0Lstice, waffles, miltonkram
not convinced: trackd00r, crossfire
defensive: me
no comment: MJ, golden, austin, HeavOnEarth At this point alan looked like a possible lynch target. But then one by one, miltonkram, then s0Lstice, then suki backed off their suspicions. Now at least 2 of these 3 are town. So there must have been something legitamitely townie-looking about alan that made them back off. And seeing as miltonkram was the first to back off a townie, I see this as evidence in his favor if anything.
on being "under the radar"+ Show Spoiler +First of all, if he has never really been pressured, what does that tell you? Everyone reads him as probable townie. Also, while miltonkram may not be the most aggressive player, I think he has done a reasonable amount of pressuring. See his post on suki below. He has done at least as much pressuring as golden, crossfire, MJ/unforgiven. miltonkram pressuring suki + Show Spoiler +On June 13 2012 18:49 Miltonkram wrote:
Suki has been painting track's two posts as directly contradictory even though they aren't. This could be an overzealous town play but I don't think it is. What possible motivation could there be for a strong attack on someone with a controversial opinion? Firstly, there's the chance that the town might bandwagon on it. This would be the best possible scenario for suki if she is scum. She leads a bandwagon D1 and she gets a mislynch. Secondly, she gains town cred for appearing aggressive even if she doesn't get the lynch. It seems like a win/win scenario for scum unless of course someone makes the analysis I'm making now.
In summary, the case on trackd00r is pure crap. Making a controversial statement is not a scumtell. I think suki is trying to cover her scumminess by appearing aggressive without making a good case.
contributions to the HeavOnEarth lynch+ Show Spoiler +
I think he contibuted quite a bit to the lynch of HeavOnEarth. He was third (after s0Lstice then me) to say HeavOnEarth was suspicious and the third/fourth (after s0Lstice, alan, suki) to vote him.
I don't see how miltonkram asking HeavOnEarth to defend himself is evidence against miltonkram. If he was genuinely concerned about the activity of his scumbuddy, he'd post in the mafia QT.
I really don't see what you're saying is scummy here.
his post on roflwaffles+ Show Spoiler +
Miltonkram agrees that we should lynch/kill roflwaffles after his death has already been decided. This makes perfect sense as either town or mafia. This certainly isn't evidence in his favor, but I don't see how it's evidence against him.
Accidentally voting HeavOnEarth instead of Unforgiven+ Show Spoiler +
Don't see at all how this is scummy. His subconscious betrayed him? If anything this makes me think he is town and sees both HeavOnEarth and Unforgiven as lurky mafia, so he confused them in his mind.
@Unforgiven
I still think you are likely mafia. But if you die and flip town, I will certainly pay attention to your reads. So I'd like to know if anything I said changes your mind on miltonkram. And if any of your other reads have changed as you've read the thread. Also, I know you've claimed VT, but if you are blue, please claim before we lynch you.
|
@alan
If unforgiven doesn't flip red (>_<) and you are seriously interested in lynching me tomorrow, I will post more defense then. For now, I will just comment on a couple of things.
you asked why I changed my mind on suki+ Show Spoiler +I addressed this a good bit in one of my earlier posts: + Show Spoiler +On June 19 2012 14:12 sciberbia wrote:I'm leaning town on suki+ Show Spoiler +I made a case on her during D2 and here is what I listed as suspicious about her: -- her first case on trackd00r and how she backed down on it -- her stances on alan -- her stances on MJ and crossfire -- scummy defense of HeavOnEarth -- one of her comments on me -- accuses trackd00r N1 when roflwaffles was more suspicious I still think this is all suspicious. On D1, she contributed toward a possible mislynch of alan or trackd00r, didn't do anything on the cases of MJ or crossfire, and delayed more than anything the correct lynch of HeavOnEarth. However, I'm getting the same feeling with her as I did before we mislynched trackd00r. That while there is a lot of circumstancial evidence aginst her, there isn't any truly conclusive evidence, and it's possible she is just a victim of circumstance. In my mind, there are a few really good pieces of evidence that suki is town: NK of austinmcc + Show Spoiler +
I just really don't see suki making this NK. I don't think the mafia coach would have suggested this NK to suki, and I highly doubt she would have proposed the idea on her own. Not only does it seem out of character to make such an odd choice of NK, but I think I am right in saying suki was being collectively viewed as one of the most suspicious people during N1.
She would need to get mislynches on people seen as scummier than her. And austinmcc could potentially have been subject to a mislynch. I truly feel that suki would have NK'd s0Lstice, myself, miltonkram, or alan.
Finally, suki has been very active this entire game, and I'm sure that if she were mafia, she'd be active in the mafia QT as well. I don't think she'd have the mods panicking that she wouldn't get the NK in. So I think the whole NK of austinmcc is very good evidence in favor of suki being town.
refusal to give up and general townie vibe + Show Spoiler +
At several points over the last couple days, suki has looked sure to be next on the lynch list. Especially when myself and s0Lstice were both attacking her as the number 1 target. Yet she has if anything grown more active. I don't think she'd be putting such an effort into the game if she knew it was pretty much over. Also, the language of her posts have read as increasingly townie to me throughout the game. I don't think she'd come off as this townie to me if she were mafia.
So, I am going to look past the circumstancial evidence, and conclude that I'm leaning town on suki The NK of austinmcc I have been considering strong evidence in her favor. The more recent things making me lean town on her are a) the existance of a scummier target (unforgiven) b) the language of her posts since D2 (in the face of her own death) have been screaming town to me Here are some examples: On June 17 2012 13:28 suki wrote:
I just really have had bad luck and bad reads. I have to say, it feels pretty awful to put so much effort into hunting scum, only to keep missing. I'd love to go over my thoughts behind my moves this game, but I'll do that post-game so I don't clog up the thread when we really need to focus on lynching scum. On June 18 2012 13:06 suki wrote:
I beseech you guys, even if you are 100% sure I am the last mafia, you have to have to have to keep analysing for the last mafia, because I am town and when you lynch me I will bleed green. Don't waste the entire day patting yourselves on the back for catching scum suki cuz you'll be unpleasantly surprised come nightfall =[
On June 18 2012 13:08 suki wrote:
@s0lstice
I don't know. Now that you put it that way, it seems so unlikely. HeavOnEarth doesn't seem like a sophisticated player that would do something like that. Golden also doesn't seem like he'd be around enough to orchestrate that sort of thing.
On June 18 2012 14:05 suki wrote:
Yeah. Welcome to bizarro bus world. You're here already you just don't know it yet
...
It doesn't matter if you believe me now. When I flip, you can come back to these words and think carefully.
On June 19 2012 15:34 suki wrote:
I realize that I am bouncing around now. I think it has to do with just losing all faith in my own judgement, in addition to no one's really listening to me anyways. I still want to post my reads, still want to try to contribute my thoughts when people bring up cases. I still want to believe I can help push for a victory, instead of crawling into a hole and disappearing for the rest of the game because no one will believe me.
She insists on continuing to analyze even in the face of her own death. This gives me the feeling that she is townie and knows the game will go on after she dies.
on my alleged lack of scumhunting+ Show Spoiler +First of all, you said my defense of you (alan) was bothersome. I really don't see why this should be so. The bandwaggon on you was gathering steam, and you can clearly see it halt and turn around when I start defending you. Here is a similar post on my townie reads from XV: + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 05:25 sciberbia wrote:OK I've read through the thread, made some pretty extensive notes on everybody, and formed my own scumreads. I've got a lot to say after not posting for so long, so I'll spoiler everything. On Cattivik + Show Spoiler +
I'm providing my opinions of cattivik for two reasons:
1) He has been accused by enough people now (heist, golden, eishi_ki, suki, miltonkram) that he is in danger of being lynched today
2) heist explicitly asked for my opinion on cattivik
I think Cattivik is most likely townie
The fishiest thing about him seems to be his insistance that I am a 'confirmed townie'. Let's go through the scenarios here from your guys' persperctive. What seems most likely?
1) Cattivik is mafia. I am town. He goes way out of his way to defend me to gain an ally.
2) Cattivik is mafia. I am mafia. He defends me to the death.
3) Cattivik is town. I am town/mafia. He has a strong town-read on me and isn't afraid to share it.
Now I know for a fact that I am town, so I can rule out scenario 2. But I think even you guys should be able to conclude that scenario 3 is most likely. Both scenarios 1 & 2 seem like really bizarre, risky mafia play. Mafia can suck up to active townies and/or defend fellow mafia without being so blatantly obvious about it. Scenario 3 seems like typical brazen townie play. He is also very agressive and seems confident. Townie characteristics.
One last thing in his favor: Judging from his early posts I didn't get the feeling that he really understood my NL logic. If he were a mafia defending a townie, I think he'd at least want to have a solid grasp on what I was saying.
Now I'm not going to say he's a 'confirmed townie' but I think he is most likely town, and I would not vote for him given current evidence.
On a related topic, unless you think someone is in danger of being mislynched, please try to avoid talking about how townie you think they are. If we all agree player X is town, and we are right, we just gave mafia a really easy kill for the night.
One last thing. Did Cattivik really just change his name to Vivax? Seriously?
On Unforgiven + Show Spoiler +
Xalatos, s0sltice, golden, suki, and miltonkram(?) all find him suspicious. I'm not sold on the case against him. He has promised a defense and I don't want to do all his defending for him so I will try to be brief.
Firstly, I disagree with Xalatos and heist that he only made safe generalizations in his first few posts. I see where you are coming from because he hasn't actually made any reads yet, but he did say a couple of odd things that have earned him some flak, such as his suggestion not to use past games as a guide and his idea about a 'town leader'.
His triple post within the span of 14 minutes caught my attention. I think that scum generally take longer to construct posts for several reasons: being nervous about making a slip, making sure it sounds townie, running it by their scumbuddies, etc. Especially on his first posts of the game. Obvioulsy not solid evidence, but I think it's in his favor.
This is a newbie game. Just because you don't think he's helping town doesn't mean that he doesn't think he's helping town... Hope that made sense.
As long as he can convince me that HE thinks that he's helping town, I see no reason why he should be mafia. I'll be interested to hear his defense.
As of right now, I consider him more suspicious than Cattivik, but I don't see any really good evidence that he is mafia.
I was planning on posting my own scumreads in this post, but I've been staring at this thread for hours now and am gonna take a break. I think it's long enough already anyways. I'll make cases against my own scumreads within the next 8 hours. Note that this post was before I had actually accused anyone, much like this game. Now, I agree that this game's D1 was not my best D1. But it wasn't bad either. I correctly defended on alan, and put at least 1 mafia on my list of 3 most suspicious. I didn't make as direct an accusation this game because I wasn't as sure on any candidate as I was in previous games. HeavOnEarth didn't look especially scummy until after he started bandwaggoning with me on crossfire. roflwaffles didn't look scummy until the last couple posts of D1. And hell, we still don't know who the third mafia is, so I don't think you should hold it against me for not figuring it out in 24 hours. s0Lstice had the same opinion mid-D1, that nobody looked as scummy as in previous games. I agree that my actions aren't impossible for a scum sciberbia. But think about what you'd expect from a townie sciberbia and your expectations should line up pretty well with what I've done (seeing as I am town). As far as contributing to the deaths of the confirmed scum, I think I've done as much as anyone except s0Lstice and arguably alan.
your speculation+ Show Spoiler +
mod's completely randomize role assignments
I'm going to sleep soon. Night.
|
@alan
We really do not want golden to be modkilled if he is town. That would likely put us in LYLO if we are wrong about unforgiven. We'd really need him around so we get two more lynches.
@golden
Please vote.
|
@suki
FYI, crossfire has voted on unforgiven
@suki, crossfire
Are you guys talking about me? Why does everyone keep calling me s0Lstice?
|
On June 21 2012 06:08 Crossfire99 wrote:
I don't think I've been talking about you except for my big post on you during the night phase. I think I've correctly referred to you when I meant you, but I'm not sure what post of mine you're referencing.
Sorry I meant suki and unforgiven. Wasn't directed at you.
I really hope this game's over in an hour x_x I feel like tomorrow's gonna get really ugly if unforgiven flips green, especially if golden gets modkilled
|
dammit unforgiven I hate you! You better be mafia >_<
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
