Bastard Mafia 2

On September 21 2011 11:28 iGrok wrote:


I've been thinking about this. And I think it is, in fact, time for me to claim.

So, as my meta, this is my incredibly huge post.

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Ok, I've come under a lot of fire lately for lurking. And it's true, I have been. But trying to use meta arguments (other than lack of a monster post, which is never on D1 anyways) on me is stupid - I dare you to find two games in which I've played similar styles as similar roles. And in this game, I'm a role I've never been before.

I am the Balrog.

I am a Survivor.

I have a number of powers, but I'll start with my wincon: I win when any faction wins and Gandalf is dead. So, the second part of my wincon has been conveniently fulfilled. Gandalf probably wasn't supposed to die this early - I've got a few powers that would have aided me in my quest for Gandalf.

• I can investigate a player each night and discover if they are Maia. Gandalf, Saruman, Sauron, and Radagast are Maia (I am told these 4 names - more on this after my full claim).
  
• I have one unblockable nightkill.

But that only helps me kill Gandalf. I still need to survive. Fortunately, I have a passive power:

• I know what happens when I get the ring. I become Bulletproof.

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I'll take a quick breather to let you all think about everything I've just said. When you're ready, scroll down.

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It's time for my favorite! Setup Analysis time! In a closed setup, its difficult - but as a 3rd party role, and with all the recent flips, I think I can figure a few things out.

I'll start with my role, as it is the most complicated.

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Survivors suck. You have to somehow survive to endgame, against a mafia team who doesn't know not to kill you. So you have to be as non-threatening as possible, while avoiding lynch. This leads you to lurk hardcore. This is no fun.

But my role is a little different. I have a goal, and tools at my disposal. And I think I've figured out how Curu intended for Balrog to be played - Investigate people, when you find a Maia, use the thread to figure out what kind. Then get them lynched. Use the oneshot to get the ring once it pops up somewhere, and then go into heavy pro-town action to win the game.

With the death of Gandalf though, I can change things up a bit. After all, it's in my best interest to survive. And for me, the choice seems clear: Get the ring.

With this in mind, I have a proposal for the town. 2 Maia have died (Gandalf and Sauron). One, maybe two are left. Saruman definitely, lets be honest he's going to be in here. He's kind of a big deal in LotR. Radagast on the other hand...+ Show Spoiler +
Anyways, my proposal - give me the ring, and I'll trade you an unblockable KP, Saruman checks, and I'll actually contribute useful analysis. Who decides on the KP? Well, if you're a DT I'll give it to you - when you check me you'll get my role PM, If you want to use my power, post the first word in the name of my Checking ability in one of your posts. I'll use it on the next name that appears in your post. Also, I'll check whoever got the second-most votes each night to see if they are Saruman or Radagast.

Why should you trust me? Because this forces me to act pro-town. I'm basically saying, I'm 3rd party but with your help I can be a Bullet-proof Vigilante. Think about that. If I get the ring, I can still be lynched - so if I don't hold up my end, you can lynch me.

So thats the deal. I want to win. Give me the ring, and I hunt the other White Wizard, while scumhunting the best I can. As a sign of good faith, I'll include an analysis later on, and I'll tell you that Radfield is neither Saruman nor Radagast (I thought he might be Gandalf).

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On to the rest of the analysis, what little I can do. Take it or leave it, but I've been known to perfectly guess setups before. I won't attempt to do so, but lets see...

First, look at Gandalf's Powers. He's called a Jack of all Trades, but he's not actually that strong. He has 4 powers, but he can't even combine them. Gandalf is supposed to be the strongest damn being in the lotr universe. But he's a purely information role.

In contrast, Sauron's Role: He, too, has investigative powers. He also has an unblockable kill, AND is godfather. Sauron just seems like a more powerful role than Gandalf. But what can we take from this?

Mafia seem to be pretty heavily loaded. Supporting this are the existence of a Jailkeeper and Messenger - Messengers are awesome for confirming players, and Jailkeepers are excellent on offense or defense against mafia.

So, with heavily loaded mafia AND at least one 3rd party, Town has to have some serious firepower and/or protection. I expect Aragorn to have KP (Curu if you make him and Legolas Trackers I will not forgive you - and if GIMLI doesn't have kp... They're the fucking heroes!) I don't forsee there being more than two medics (Eowyn and Galadriel are my guesses), but combined with a Jailkeeper and a vet or two we're starting to talk about some high-power games.

My final note about setup: Pippin (Peregrin Took). The existence of pm-oriented roles is cool, and I highly doubt there's just one. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Merry was a clone of Pippin's role.

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So now its time for some sample analysis.

And my focus today is Palmar.


This was his first post. Nothing scummy here, but it sets the mood for everything else he posts.

Now, here's a list of his opinions since then.
Radfield, WBG, Errandor
prplhz
DrH
Radfield, himself, Sandroba, Pyo

Pause. Next post.


Here, minimal interaction with DrH is played off as enough to auto-confirm him. This post sets off alarm bells in my head. Palmar contributed 4 posts before DrH died, 2 of which were "Herp I'm not reading the thread" (He was obviously reading the thread). Its his fourth post that interests me: "DrH is giving me really bad vibes." At the time, it looked like just another throwaway post. But post DrH's death, this post looks more like DrH new he was going to be modkilled and Palmar jumped out early to get a townie point.

For the rest of the game, two things are going on. He puts faith in Radfield, and he continues to stress Sandroba town. (yes theres other shit but those're the important parts)

Palmar already feels scummy. So lets continue on that assumption, and introduce possibilities.
1)Radfield and Sandroba are both town. If this is true, then Palmar is trying to gain town cred when they flip. With sandroba acting scummy and a possible lynch, and Radfield a good mafia target, thats two points for him. Fits with calling DrH scum.
2)Radfield is town, Sandroba is scum. This is using Radfield's town cred to make Sandroba look better. Even those who don't trust Palmar will subliminally put them on closer levels. If sandroba didn't look so damn scummy, it might work.
3)Radfield is scum, Sandroba is town. I just... don't see this as possible.
4)Both are scum. I don't know what this would mean actually

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Alright guys, well you've heard me out. Give me the ring, and I'll start working a hell of a lot harder this game, hunt down Saruman, and give a DT an unblockable shot. Otherwise, I'll basically keep doing what I've done so far. Your move.