|
The first person I'd want to kill would be prplhz. Now, I just went back and read through all of Rad/BB/Palmar, and between those three Palmar definitely looks the worst to me right now. I feel better about BB than I did. Rad still looks a little off, but not really in a mafia way; he might be a good target for SK hunting later. Palmar looks the worst to me, the reason being basically this:
He's been changing his scum meta recently from being just useless from Day 1 on to trying to act like himself for a while. I'm leaning slightly towards town now, but if he starts not pushing any cases or doing anything useful, it means he's scum.
Palmar's very transparent when he's town, and because he's good at asserting he's town, he can get people to follow him very quickly and that helps him lynch scum. However, that also works against him when he's scum because sure he can mimic how he acts normally, but he doesn't appear sincere or just doesn't hunt/kill scum. Right now Palmar has done absolutely nothing in the game, so that makes him very likely to be scum, because it isn't like he's just been inactive all game or something that would give him an excuse. Instead, he's been around but has been willfully not contributing or hunting scum. I was willing to give him a chance on Day 2 with the gonzaw thing to see if it was some kind of ploy, but he hasn't improved substantially since then.
So, GreY, my answer is prplhz, followed by Palmar. After we kill those two, we can go SK hunting.
|
On June 17 2012 05:53 gonzaw wrote:
Well this is boring.
Wiggles, what makes you feel better about BB than you did?
I included BB in the list of three names through the process of elimination and because I just hadn't read him very closely. After going through his filter, I don't feel like he's mafia. He's been pretty open and direct about what he's thinking and who his scum reads are, which makes me feel good. He's also making sense and not misdirecting. Overall, I don't get many scum-vibes from him compared to Palmar, and I don't feel weird about him like Rad either.
|
On June 17 2012 06:22 gonzaw wrote:
So your "scum+SK" list would be something like this then?:
Scum:
Palmar
prplhz
SK:
Radfield
My list for now would be like this:
Scum:
Palmar
BrownBear
SK:
prplhz
I'd go more into detail why I get the feeling BB is scum, but I want to lynch Palmar first and not distract town.
Yeah, the SK I feel is one of Rad or GreY.
How strongly do you feel prplhz is the SK though? I feel very strongly that he's mafia, but if you think he's the SK as well, it might be good to lynch him. The SK hasn't shot yet, so that means that there's two options to limit the KP against us. I'm going to do a little analysis of how we should lynch.
The first option is to lynch both mafia consecutively today and tomorrow.
Then:
We kill 1 mafia, 1 mafia left.
Mafia shoot tonight, 1 KP.
We kill the last mafia, 0 mafia left.
Then there's only the SK KP left over.
2 KP total that can hit the town. There's also the chance that scum hit the SK which could help us because it will block a KP.
The other option is to lynch the SK today and then both scum.
Lynch the SK.
Mafia shoot, 1 KP.
Lynch a mafia
Mafia shoot, 1 KP.
Lynch the last mafia, win.
Both of these rely on being fairly certain of who the two scum are. For example, if we did something like lynch a mafia today, and then the SK tomorrow, we would lose.
Right now it's 4-2-1.
If we lynch scum today, but both SK and mafia hit town, then:
4-1-1
2-1-1
Then we need to lynch mafia to remove their kp:
2-0-1
Then lynch the SK.
2-0-0
If we hit SK instead of mafia:
2-1-0
1-1-0 after hits.
If SK hits mafia after a mafia lynch:
3-0-1 Which puts us in a good position
4-0-1 if the mafia also hit the SK
If mafia hit the SK after a mafia lynch, SK hits town:
2-1-1 or 2-0-1
In the first case, we need to hit the mafia to get rid of his KP, case 2 is LYLO.
So, if we lynch mafia today, we must hit the other mafia tomorrow if the SK shoots town. So, we have to be sure of and agree on, who the second mafia is in the majority of cases, as lynching the SK could result in a loss.
Now, if instead we hit the SK today, it will go:
4-2-0
3-2-0 after hits
3-1-0 lynch 1 mafia
2-1-0 next round of hits
2-0-0 lynch the second mafia
If we hit the SK, we need to do a 1-2 hit on both scum with our lynches.
So, lynching prplhz could be the best move today. I think he's mafia, you think he's the SK, but we both agree that he's scum. If we lynch him and he flips mafia, we just lynch Palmar tomorrow, and then hunt for the SK. If he flips SK, we still lynch Palmar, and then we look for the last mafia. Either way though, we don't get into a situation tomorrow where we disagree on who the last mafia is and end up potentially lynching town or the SK and then losing.
What do you think?
##Vote: prplhz
|
The point is that if we lynch mafia today there are situations where we [b]must[\b] lynch the other mafia tomorrow. If we dont we lose. We disagree about the last mafia, so that means we could lynch the wrong one. Lynching prp assures that we either have both scum, or that we have two cycles to find the last one. What youre saying to do is wrong because it relies entirely on the actions of the mafia and the sk. Youre taking the power out of our hands and putting it into scums which is dumb. My plan works in all possible scenarios regardless of what kind of scum prp flips as and regardless of what actions scum take tonight. Yours relies on the sk or mafia taking certain actions so that we dont lose
|
Do you think sk has magical scum finding powers that no ome in town has? Theres an easy chance of sk hitting town. Id tell you why prp is mafia but Im on my phone so I cant write a big post and it doesnt matter if hes mafia or sk so long as hes antitown
|
Please vote prplhz so that the next day is significantly easier and less confusing if youre reading this
|
Prplhz is not town. Its as simple as that, theres no chance that hes town anymore than there is that palmar is. Its more like if we follow plan a something bad could happen hat makes us lose but if we follow plan b it doesnt matter if that bad thing happens. Im not even the one aeguing that hes an sk.
|
My plan cant go wrong unless prp is town, which hes not. Your plan goes wrong when we need to lynch mafia tomorrow and its me arguing to lynch prp against you trying to lynch bb, and we nees to pick between winning (prp) and not lynchimg mafia (bb). Killing prp makes any choice tomorrow super simple
|
Because of chaoser and nothing youve done has changed my mind or made me think you could possibly be town
|
On June 17 2012 09:50 gonzaw wrote:Right, so we don't lynch obvious scum Palmar to lynch him tomorrow right? Anything can happen by that time, Palmar can come up with a case against someone, then cause more shitstorm, have people doubt their reads on him, and he may even survive. If we all agree to lynch him today I don't see why we shouldn't. Yes, if tonight SK shoots a townie (I don't see this happening either, but lets assume it will happen), we can argue tomorrow about who is scum, prp or BB or someone else. That's what's supposed to happen, we lynch one scum and then argue about who the other one is, but if the SK doesn't shoot tonight (most likely), then we could still lynch prplhz if we think he's either SK or scum. If prplhz is scum, the real SK won't shoot a townie tonight because he knows that if he does, we'll most likely avoid lynching prplhz tomorrow, while if he doesn't, we'd most likely do, so he'd not shoot a townie tonight, let us lynch prplhz, and then try to win solo. You are making too many assumptions, you just assume the SK will shoot a townie tonight if we lynch Palmar no matter what and be successful.. Like where the fuck does that come from? The SK could even shoot the other scum if he feels like it and try to survive 2 lynches, he could just not shoot, or he could try to shoot a townie but shoot the same one as scum or scum can shoot him or not shoot at all. You say your plan is better because "We lynch Palmar today"->"SK and mafia will shoot different townies, so we'll have a hard time trying to lynch the remaining scum": - That isn't as bad as you make it seem, we have 1 scum down and are still in LYLO where we need to lynch the 2nd scum, and the SK doesn't have another bullet to use.
- Do you know what sucks as well? prplhz flipping town, or prplhz flipping SK and debating all D4 on whether Palmar is scum or perhaps Rad/Grey/etc and Palmar may survive another lynch.
You still haven't answered me the question about prplhz's behaviour.
I'm home now, but holy crap, I am making NO assumptions about the kills. that's the whole god damned point. Killing prplhz means that it DOESN'T MATTER what happens at night, because it makes no difference. Prplhz is not town, if you think he is town, then make a post defending him because otherwise you're taking out of your ass. I think he's mafia. He's mafia because he/chaoser are pushing the wrong people. They're not hunting for scum, they're hunting for mislynches and easy/bad cases. The SK is just going to float around with town and do enough to not get lynched, but not enough to get shot by scum. I'm astounded that so many people expressed that chaoser/prplhz were mafia, and now with how prplhz is still posting there's only my vote on him.
My plan makes it so that it does not matter what happens tonight, because prpl is scum, and I think he's mafia, but even if he's the SK it doesn't make a difference. Palmar is more likely to be mafia than just an SK. So, if we lynch prpl and he flips scum, we just kill Palmar the next day, and we eliminate mafia KP. If he flips SK, there's no more SK KP, and we can lynch Palmar the next day and then find his ally in the next 144 hours. It doesn't matter if there's two lylo's, because I'd rather rely on my own analysis than on having to differentiate between mafia/sk and then having to argue and still potentially losing if we lynch the wrong kind of scum.
|
Ok, I'm sure everyone already knows my stance on chaoshz. If you really want me to pick through what prplhz has been doing since he replaced in even though it's been pretty blatantly scummy, I can. Otherwise, I'd like to present to you the SK, our very own GreYMisT!
Now, why is he the SK you ask? Well, the major point is that he is maintaining a facade of being pro-town while not actually pushing his so-called scum reads.
Here's his filter for reference:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=341558&user=120900
I'm going to focus mostly on his play since Day/Night 1, though what I'm saying applies to then as well. That starts on page 4 of his filter. The big thing looking through the filter from that point, is to ask yourself, "What has GreYMisT done or accomplished?". For example, he says stuff like he's suspicious of one person more than another, and he asks questions of people, but does he actually try to push for lynches?
For example, he makes a case on Radfield, and then quickly backs off. The next person he starts to feel out is prplhz. This post shows that he apparently likes a prplhz lynch more than a palmar one:
On June 17 2012 03:07 GreYMisT wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2012 02:21 Radfield wrote:On June 17 2012 00:49 GreYMisT wrote:On June 16 2012 13:02 Radfield wrote:VE dying pushes more doubt on me. One, Palmars case against me rested on VE being obvious town, which he now most certainly is. Two, me not dying pushes suspicion on me as well, as technically I should be dead. I honestly would have been shocked if I'd been shot last night, and I expected Gonzaw to take a bullet. Thinking about it though, VE was almost universally seen as town, so his death makes sense by virtue of that alone.
What I would like to bring to everyone's attention is how this post happened after it became apparent that the VE lynch wasn't going to work. From my point of view a town player who thought VE was scum would have made a case (something rad actually never did at all). Instead what Rad did was sit back and watched if the VE lynched gained steam, and then covertly swapped off of it.
The more I read into radfield, the more I see the delayed promises for contribution and the careful steps to see which lynch is safe.
Greymist, that is not how things went down. I did not simply put out VE's name and then sit back to see if it picked up steam. I read his filter, saw some things I didn't like, and mentioned that I thought he should be looked at closer. I then went and filtered every other player in the game(except Gonzaw) in an effort to find a good lynch. Read my posts at the end of Day 1. My thought process is clear, and I was trying to find the best lynch. When I went back to build his case, it just wasn't happening. Things I thought were scummy simply no longer seemed scummy. And I even mentioned that he didn't look that bad once I reread him. If I was really trying to push a VE lynch, I wouldn't have just said "there is a case to be made on VE". That's not going to pick up any votes, and is hardly even a condemnation, it's just me stating I found some scummy things in VE's filter. The more I read into radfield, the more I see the delayed promises for contribution and the careful steps to see which lynch is safe. I admit I wasn't contributing for a time, but really we're talking about a chunk of time from end of D1-mid D2. Since then and before then I have been doing my best to contribute. Also, there were no careful steps to find a safe lynch. I didn't really like the MZ lynch, but couldn't see a better option and didn't want to lynch Palmar. Day 2 I was quite happy with a Hesmyrr lynch, as he was my top scum read. Anyways I'll weigh in on the lynch in the morning. Haven't read that case yet Gonzaw. The point was, when you posted that it was obvious that VE wasnt going to get lynched. From a scum perspective that would be a really easy way to swap off him after realizing it wasnt going to happen. I am completely fine lynching prp if he gives us nothing today. The only contribution he gave upon replacing in was basically him saying don't expect much. I'm not quite sure what you mean. I never "swapped off" VE, as I never voted him. I stated that I saw some scummy stuff in his filter, but wanted to look for a different target. Lynching VE day 1 doesn't really make sense because he's normally pretty easy to deduce as town as the game goes on. Also, I feel had I been able to make a strong case(which I didn't find), then there was plenty of time to lynch VE. The real issue is that upon rereading VE's filter, he didn't really look that bad. What do you think of Palmar Greymist? I think his play this game is highly unusual. I mentioned some things before the flip that I thought weird about him. It is possible that I have misinterpreted your actions regarding VE. Unless I'm mistaken its LyLo, so I have been reconsidering my vote on you quite a bit so I can be as sure as possible. I like your defense, and upon rereading I have decided not to vote you. Understand when I reread you, I was looking for weird behavior surrounding VE and MZ. I found some, but i realize that it would have made far more sense for you to keep pushing VE into day 2, as opposed to acting the way you did. Anyway, You me and Gonzaw appear to be it as far as activity goes. might as well assume we are all town right? (  ) joking aside, I again want to be as sure as possible, so lets get a real disscussion going . Would you guys really like to lynch palmar over say Chaoser/prp? I feel atm that he has a higher chance of being mafia.
Notice though, how he words the suspicion. He doesn't say, "I think prplhz is more likely to be mafia, so let's lynch him", instead he asks Gonzaw/Radfield if they would like to lynch palmar over prplhz. He's feeling out what the general attitude towards the lynch is.
Then again, he's sounding out where the general direction is:
On June 17 2012 03:58 GreYMisT wrote:
I'd like to hear everyone's 2 people they want to see dead today.
I am personally fine with lynching Prp and now Palmar at this point.
Notice he doesn't say he wants to lynch prp over Palmar, even though that was his original thought. Now he's just fine with either of them.
Then, during my argument with Gonzaw, he doesn't actually take a side, he just writes this:
On June 17 2012 08:51 GreYMisT wrote:
I agree with wiggles, a plan that requires the SK to shoot scum (when he doesnt know 100% even) is a plan that can go very, very wrong.
Implying that he agrees with me somewhat, but notice he doesn't actually push his opinion one way or the other. He doesn't say we should lynch prpl because my plan is correct or things could go wrong with a Palmar lynch, and he doesn't say that he thinks I'm wrong and we should lynch Palmar. This is also surprising, because in a way I gave him an outlet to vote for prplhz, who he said he thought was more likely to be scum than Palmar, but instead he doesn't. In fact, even though he said he thought prplhz was more likely to be mafia than Palmar, his vote never touches prp. After he unvotes rad, he holds it, which fits in with the idea that he's trying to sound out what people are thinking to slide along with the majority.
Then, he eventually votes for Palmar after it's clear a prplhz switch isn't happening:
On June 18 2012 01:17 GreYMisT wrote:
Im going to vote palmar, hopefully there are no objections atm.
Something to note, is that he mentions that "hopefully there are no objections atm". Why is he apologetic about his vote? If he thinks Palmar is scum, why does he care if someone objects to his vote? This is also at a point where Palmar was very likely to be lynched considering activity and the complete lack of discussion about lynching prplhz instead from anyone other than myself and gonzaw. So, why is he apologetic? Because he doesn't want to cause waves or step on anyone's toes.
+ Show Spoiler [Irony] +On June 17 2012 08:42 GreYMisT wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2012 08:30 prplhz wrote:
Okay screw that.
gonzaw is not scum and no matter if he is SK or town he wants to lynch scum today. He's also putting in quite a bit of effort so maybe he's right. Palmar isn't doing much and I don't really have a huge town read on him. He just seemed townie when I read the game. Anyway, lets just roll with this Palmar lynch today. I'm just going to sheep gonzaw on an opinion I don't really agree with but that's how it's going to be for now.
##Vote: Palmar
If gonzaw is scum then gg wp. You should try replacing into a game where everybody thinks you're scum by default, it's not really all that fun. Its LyLo, now is not the time to sheep votes you don't believe in.
This is just a kicker but pretty funny when compared with GreY saying he likes the prplhz lynch more but then not pushing for it at all.
So, overall, GreY's behaviour over the last cycle has been exemplary of a vast majority of his play over this whole game. He is not actually pushing to lynch the people he suspects. Instead, he states a suspicion, and then follows along with how the rest of the town is voting. He doesn't argue for his own opinion, but meekly folds over like a wet noodle when it looks like there's some kind of opposition.
Now, you might ask, how does that make him the SK? Well, the answer is rather simple. It's because he's doing a rather good job of blending in. He isn't pushing his suspicions, so mafia won't see him as a threat when compared to players who are actually doing analysis and pushing for scum to be killed. Meanwhile, he's doing a good job of posting "reads", but not actually much reasoning or analysis behind those reads. So, town will be content to let him live, because they'll see him as someone who's posting his thoughts or being open. That way, he's not in danger of being lynched. He's living life in the middle of the road, not dangerous enough for scum to shoot, and not scummy enough for town to lynch as mafia. Add on to this, that GreY himself if posting about how the SK isn't afraid of being shot, so he'll be one of the most pro-town players in the game. He's moving any potential area to look for the SK into the more active and helpful players, and thus away from himself. Mafia already want to shoot there, because those are the most dangerous townies, and now town might want to lynch them as well, because any one of them could be the SK. This also helps by making sure the pool of players most likely to be able to catch GreY are shot by scum and also seen as suspicious so that hopefully they won't have enough power to lynch him.
Overall, this all adds up to point to the conclusion that GreY is the SK.
|
On June 19 2012 09:11 Radfield wrote:
Well played Gonzaw. Very solid effort.
Prp, if you are town, you are going to get mislynched and lose the game. I need a solid effort from you in the next 24 hours. If you are not the last scum, who do you think is. Find him and push him.
I'm going to be rereading everyone, there's no reason to slack off now folks. Wiggles, I want you to assume Prplhz is town, who is the last scum if that's the case?
Greymist, you haven't done much of anything lately. Are you convinced prplhz is the last scum?
That question is basically asking, "Who's scummier, me or Brownbear?". I'll read through, but I'll reserve posting judgement for later, because I'm very sure that prplhz is the last mafia. What do you think about my case on GreYMisT? Since no one, including GreY has commented on it, I'll assume it's because it got buried:
Ok, I'm sure everyone already knows my stance on chaoshz. If you really want me to pick through what prplhz has been doing since he replaced in even though it's been pretty blatantly scummy, I can. Otherwise, I'd like to present to you the SK, our very own GreYMisT!
Now, why is he the SK you ask? Well, the major point is that he is maintaining a facade of being pro-town while not actually pushing his so-called scum reads.
Here's his filter for reference:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=341558&user=120900
I'm going to focus mostly on his play since Day/Night 1, though what I'm saying applies to then as well. That starts on page 4 of his filter. The big thing looking through the filter from that point, is to ask yourself, "What has GreYMisT done or accomplished?". For example, he says stuff like he's suspicious of one person more than another, and he asks questions of people, but does he actually try to push for lynches?
For example, he makes a case on Radfield, and then quickly backs off. The next person he starts to feel out is prplhz. This post shows that he apparently likes a prplhz lynch more than a palmar one:
On June 17 2012 03:07 GreYMisT wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2012 02:21 Radfield wrote:On June 17 2012 00:49 GreYMisT wrote:On June 16 2012 13:02 Radfield wrote:VE dying pushes more doubt on me. One, Palmars case against me rested on VE being obvious town, which he now most certainly is. Two, me not dying pushes suspicion on me as well, as technically I should be dead. I honestly would have been shocked if I'd been shot last night, and I expected Gonzaw to take a bullet. Thinking about it though, VE was almost universally seen as town, so his death makes sense by virtue of that alone.
What I would like to bring to everyone's attention is how this post happened after it became apparent that the VE lynch wasn't going to work. From my point of view a town player who thought VE was scum would have made a case (something rad actually never did at all). Instead what Rad did was sit back and watched if the VE lynched gained steam, and then covertly swapped off of it.
The more I read into radfield, the more I see the delayed promises for contribution and the careful steps to see which lynch is safe.
Greymist, that is not how things went down. I did not simply put out VE's name and then sit back to see if it picked up steam. I read his filter, saw some things I didn't like, and mentioned that I thought he should be looked at closer. I then went and filtered every other player in the game(except Gonzaw) in an effort to find a good lynch. Read my posts at the end of Day 1. My thought process is clear, and I was trying to find the best lynch. When I went back to build his case, it just wasn't happening. Things I thought were scummy simply no longer seemed scummy. And I even mentioned that he didn't look that bad once I reread him. If I was really trying to push a VE lynch, I wouldn't have just said "there is a case to be made on VE". That's not going to pick up any votes, and is hardly even a condemnation, it's just me stating I found some scummy things in VE's filter. The more I read into radfield, the more I see the delayed promises for contribution and the careful steps to see which lynch is safe. I admit I wasn't contributing for a time, but really we're talking about a chunk of time from end of D1-mid D2. Since then and before then I have been doing my best to contribute. Also, there were no careful steps to find a safe lynch. I didn't really like the MZ lynch, but couldn't see a better option and didn't want to lynch Palmar. Day 2 I was quite happy with a Hesmyrr lynch, as he was my top scum read. Anyways I'll weigh in on the lynch in the morning. Haven't read that case yet Gonzaw. The point was, when you posted that it was obvious that VE wasnt going to get lynched. From a scum perspective that would be a really easy way to swap off him after realizing it wasnt going to happen. I am completely fine lynching prp if he gives us nothing today. The only contribution he gave upon replacing in was basically him saying don't expect much. I'm not quite sure what you mean. I never "swapped off" VE, as I never voted him. I stated that I saw some scummy stuff in his filter, but wanted to look for a different target. Lynching VE day 1 doesn't really make sense because he's normally pretty easy to deduce as town as the game goes on. Also, I feel had I been able to make a strong case(which I didn't find), then there was plenty of time to lynch VE. The real issue is that upon rereading VE's filter, he didn't really look that bad. What do you think of Palmar Greymist? I think his play this game is highly unusual. I mentioned some things before the flip that I thought weird about him. It is possible that I have misinterpreted your actions regarding VE. Unless I'm mistaken its LyLo, so I have been reconsidering my vote on you quite a bit so I can be as sure as possible. I like your defense, and upon rereading I have decided not to vote you. Understand when I reread you, I was looking for weird behavior surrounding VE and MZ. I found some, but i realize that it would have made far more sense for you to keep pushing VE into day 2, as opposed to acting the way you did. Anyway, You me and Gonzaw appear to be it as far as activity goes. might as well assume we are all town right? ( ) joking aside, I again want to be as sure as possible, so lets get a real disscussion going . Would you guys really like to lynch palmar over say Chaoser/prp? I feel atm that he has a higher chance of being mafia.
Notice though, how he words the suspicion. He doesn't say, "I think prplhz is more likely to be mafia, so let's lynch him", instead he asks Gonzaw/Radfield if they would like to lynch palmar over prplhz. He's feeling out what the general attitude towards the lynch is.
Then again, he's sounding out where the general direction is:
On June 17 2012 03:58 GreYMisT wrote:
I'd like to hear everyone's 2 people they want to see dead today.
I am personally fine with lynching Prp and now Palmar at this point.
Notice he doesn't say he wants to lynch prp over Palmar, even though that was his original thought. Now he's just fine with either of them.
Then, during my argument with Gonzaw, he doesn't actually take a side, he just writes this:
On June 17 2012 08:51 GreYMisT wrote:
I agree with wiggles, a plan that requires the SK to shoot scum (when he doesnt know 100% even) is a plan that can go very, very wrong.
Implying that he agrees with me somewhat, but notice he doesn't actually push his opinion one way or the other. He doesn't say we should lynch prpl because my plan is correct or things could go wrong with a Palmar lynch, and he doesn't say that he thinks I'm wrong and we should lynch Palmar. This is also surprising, because in a way I gave him an outlet to vote for prplhz, who he said he thought was more likely to be scum than Palmar, but instead he doesn't. In fact, even though he said he thought prplhz was more likely to be mafia than Palmar, his vote never touches prp. After he unvotes rad, he holds it, which fits in with the idea that he's trying to sound out what people are thinking to slide along with the majority.
Then, he eventually votes for Palmar after it's clear a prplhz switch isn't happening:
On June 18 2012 01:17 GreYMisT wrote:
Im going to vote palmar, hopefully there are no objections atm.
Something to note, is that he mentions that "hopefully there are no objections atm". Why is he apologetic about his vote? If he thinks Palmar is scum, why does he care if someone objects to his vote? This is also at a point where Palmar was very likely to be lynched considering activity and the complete lack of discussion about lynching prplhz instead from anyone other than myself and gonzaw. So, why is he apologetic? Because he doesn't want to cause waves or step on anyone's toes.
+ Show Spoiler [Irony] +On June 17 2012 08:42 GreYMisT wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2012 08:30 prplhz wrote:
Okay screw that.
gonzaw is not scum and no matter if he is SK or town he wants to lynch scum today. He's also putting in quite a bit of effort so maybe he's right. Palmar isn't doing much and I don't really have a huge town read on him. He just seemed townie when I read the game. Anyway, lets just roll with this Palmar lynch today. I'm just going to sheep gonzaw on an opinion I don't really agree with but that's how it's going to be for now.
##Vote: Palmar
If gonzaw is scum then gg wp. You should try replacing into a game where everybody thinks you're scum by default, it's not really all that fun. Its LyLo, now is not the time to sheep votes you don't believe in.
This is just a kicker but pretty funny when compared with GreY saying he likes the prplhz lynch more but then not pushing for it at all.
So, overall, GreY's behaviour over the last cycle has been exemplary of a vast majority of his play over this whole game. He is not actually pushing to lynch the people he suspects. Instead, he states a suspicion, and then follows along with how the rest of the town is voting. He doesn't argue for his own opinion, but meekly folds over like a wet noodle when it looks like there's some kind of opposition.
Now, you might ask, how does that make him the SK? Well, the answer is rather simple. It's because he's doing a rather good job of blending in. He isn't pushing his suspicions, so mafia won't see him as a threat when compared to players who are actually doing analysis and pushing for scum to be killed. Meanwhile, he's doing a good job of posting "reads", but not actually much reasoning or analysis behind those reads. So, town will be content to let him live, because they'll see him as someone who's posting his thoughts or being open. That way, he's not in danger of being lynched. He's living life in the middle of the road, not dangerous enough for scum to shoot, and not scummy enough for town to lynch as mafia. Add on to this, that GreY himself if posting about how the SK isn't afraid of being shot, so he'll be one of the most pro-town players in the game. He's moving any potential area to look for the SK into the more active and helpful players, and thus away from himself. Mafia already want to shoot there, because those are the most dangerous townies, and now town might want to lynch them as well, because any one of them could be the SK. This also helps by making sure the pool of players most likely to be able to catch GreY are shot by scum and also seen as suspicious so that hopefully they won't have enough power to lynch him.
Overall, this all adds up to point to the conclusion that GreY is the SK.
On June 19 2012 23:52 GreYMisT wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2012 09:11 Radfield wrote:
Well played Gonzaw. Very solid effort.
Prp, if you are town, you are going to get mislynched and lose the game. I need a solid effort from you in the next 24 hours. If you are not the last scum, who do you think is. Find him and push him.
I'm going to be rereading everyone, there's no reason to slack off now folks. Wiggles, I want you to assume Prplhz is town, who is the last scum if that's the case?
Greymist, you haven't done much of anything lately. Are you convinced prplhz is the last scum? Don't you think he is a little scummy for not helping us at all? not to mention the contradictions: Show nested quote +On June 17 2012 06:25 prplhz wrote:On June 17 2012 03:15 Radfield wrote:On June 17 2012 02:59 prplhz wrote:
I'm up to date on the thread now but my head is spinning. Ask me anything. I kind of want to kill Radfield/Brownbear and subsequently gonzaw. What makes you suspicious of gonzaw? Or Me/BB for that matter. Do you think Palmar is mafia? Don't really want to talk about gonzaw. I'm probably just getting the same 3rd party vibes off of him that everybody else is getting too. I want to lynch you because you are still alive. I don't see why scum would shoot Ace and VisceraEyes over you. You can't really do much to defend yourself here and I guess that sucks (for both of us). BrownBear had his weird emotional outburst against Palmar that seemed rather townie but then he didn't do much else which seems less towny. Show nested quote +On June 17 2012 06:31 prplhz wrote:
Like, gonzaw just did two huge posts on Palmar. One of them says that Palmar is scum because he is too confident in himself, lol have you never played with Palmar before?
Anyway, then in his next post he's like "We can lynch prplhz, whatever". At the same time, when I ask for help after having replaced into the middle of a game and expressing my insecurities about playing with you lot, he doesn't seem interested at all. He doesn't appear to want to help me get started or anything. GreYMisT thinks I'm scum but he's been pushing me for something at least. gonzaw doesn't look like he cares and for absolutely no reason. It looks to me like he's just doing whatever this game and that seems 3rd partyish to me. 8 page filter and then I still don't get the feeling that he actually cares about town this game. Show nested quote +On June 17 2012 06:57 prplhz wrote:
I don't think that Palmar is scum no. It's mostly his demeanor and I'm probably shit at that but I think that he seems townie enough for now. Your case is a little far fetched with the "How is he so confident?!". I didn't read it all too hard 'cause you were all yelling at me to write something in this thread and I didn't think that Palmar was scum so now I'm here.
If you think I'm going to replace in and carry this game then you're crazy. Not only do I suck compared to most of you, I also replaced in mid way which is kind of hard to do. The rest of you have several days on me. I'm here and I'm giving you my opinion and that's really what I'm going to be doing for at least today. inb4 "l0L he r maek xcuze 4 not p0st".
Your filter is just so fucking huge, 8 pages that's 20% of this game. And it feels like you're all over the place, pointing at someone and then pointing at someone else and not really caring who gets lynched (right now of Palmar and me but I think this has been a general trait of yours in this game). And then suddenly! Show nested quote +On June 17 2012 08:30 prplhz wrote:
Okay screw that.
gonzaw is not scum and no matter if he is SK or town he wants to lynch scum today. He's also putting in quite a bit of effort so maybe he's right. Palmar isn't doing much and I don't really have a huge town read on him. He just seemed townie when I read the game. Anyway, lets just roll with this Palmar lynch today. I'm just going to sheep gonzaw on an opinion I don't really agree with but that's how it's going to be for now.
##Vote: Palmar
If gonzaw is scum then gg wp. You should try replacing into a game where everybody thinks you're scum by default, it's not really all that fun. He also keeps bringing up this "i'm scum by default" bit. Well yea, you are never here, and you arnt doing anything, and your filter is full of the above. You are scum by default for just doing that. I was scum by default to gonzaw day 1, but the difference between you and me is I decidided to become helpful, rather than complain and guilt trip the town into not voting me.
Helpful, but not town, unfortunately.
|
On June 20 2012 06:13 Radfield wrote:
I haven't really looked hard at your case on Greymist, because it's way easier to find the last scum first.
Do you think Greymist has a chance of flipping scum Wiggles?
I guess he could be scum if I'm wrong, but my own read is very much that prplhz is the last mafia, and then GreY is the SK. What's yours?
|
On June 21 2012 00:26 Radfield wrote:
OK, here's the blitz case on wiggles.
Day 1 is obviously a write-off, as he does nothing of consequence, and votes himself.
Fairly quickly he gets back after the deadline, and I found his post very odd:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=341558¤tpage=22#433
He mentions the three players who DIDN'T vote MZ or Palmar, which was very strange. A townie was just lynched, so who cares about the singleton votes. It makes far more sense to focus on the MZ voters. However, if you know that Palmar is mafia, it all of a sudden makes more sense, because the people who didn't vote MZ/Palmar are people who were afraid to weigh in when a scum death was on the line. From a mafia perspective, it makes sense to have those three look scummy(because it looks like they both wanted to save Palmar, yet didn't want to link themselves in the voting lists)
It doesn't matter what Palmar and MZ's respective alignments were because those three all still decided to not weigh in on the lynch. Two of them made it pretty clear they would want to vote for MZ, but never followed through with it. That he turned out to be town made it worse, because then it looks like they didn't want to be be linked to his lynch. It looks scummy because they wanted to lynch town but didn't follow through with it. If they're townies, then they would think that the person is scum and vote for them, if they're actually writing their true thoughts in the thread. If they're scum on the other hand, they know MZ will flip town, so they'll avoid actually voting for him so they can't be linked to killing a townie. It looked suspicious to me, so I analyzed it.
The entire case he builds on Chaoser + Show Spoiler +is stretched and overstated. Early plays like Chaosers RNG thing can only be taken so far in a case. However it's mostly the tone that gets me, as it seems like Wiggles is trying not to convince us that Chaoser is scum, but rather to convince us that Wiggles is Town. A lot of the paragraphs are spent relating stories and analogies.
The second post was in response to gonzaw who dismissed my case with about 5 lines of text, and terrible reasoning. The original case is not long or overdrawn, it's short and to the point. The second post was trying to explain it to Gonzaw because either he didn't understand or I did a bad job communicating what I meant. So, I used analogies and stories to try to show how I saw chaoser acting in different words than his own, or to draw parallels to how he was acting.
A refusal to post a read on Palmar: Show nested quote +
It wasn't worth commenting on because it wasn't completed. When Palmar does stuff, sometimes it's for different purposes than it just appears to be on the surface. When he makes that post on Gonzaw, I have no clue if he actually thinks Gonzaw is scum, or he just wants to pressure him for a reaction, or he wants to see if someone else reacts, or whatever. Like I said, it didn't give me any reason to vote gonzaw and goes against my own read. Besides that, it's palmar doing palmar stuff. I normally ignore that stuff until I think he's scum for it, or it becomes something actual i.e. people actually voting, an actual analysis, a follow-up post, etc.
Personally, I think Palmar is being Palmar right now (or at least acting like it). He's been changing his scum meta recently from being just useless from Day 1 on to trying to act like himself for a while. I'm leaning slightly towards town now, but if he starts not pushing any cases or doing anything useful, it means he's scum.
That ended up being the case.
I also don't particularly like Wiggles play surrounding his Hesmyrr reasoning. I have no real salient point to make with it, but something seems off. You guys be the judge: Show nested quote +If I change my read on chaoser, or need to vote to get him lynched, I'll switch onto Hesmyrr. I like the case on him, and what BB added. His Day 1 vote made me a little suspicious, but I wasn't ready to call him out completely on it, as well, I didn't like his case on VE very much. It had a couple points that were OK, but a big part of it seemed like it was just completely ignoring the content of VE's posts in favour of calling him scum for them. I want to see what he has to say in defense as well. Show nested quote +I mentioned the stance on Day 1, and his case on VE as my own reasons. That he doesn't commit to what he said with a vote shows that he wanted to distance himself somewhat from the lynch, and the VE case doesn't follow logically from what VE posted. It just looks like he decided to make a case on VE and needed reasons to call him scummy; it's grasping. I also agree with what you and BB wrote about the wishy-washiness and wanting to just sort of blend in. I also like when it was pointed out that Hesmyrr just sort of pops up whenever he's being talked about. That's pretty much the definition of active lurking, and is also a strike against him. He just kind of hits all the reasons in these posts. It feels like he's throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks. Wiggles obviously also tries hard to divert the lynch off of Palmar onto prplhz. I'm not going to go into it deeply, but it's obviously scummy by definition. The arguments are not really the prplhz is necessarily scummier. Wiggles puts forward that HE thinks prplhz is scummier, but he never really labors and tries to convince everyone else of that fact. He mainly tries to argue that from a logic standpoint lynching prplhz makes more sense, which is a strange argument.
Also, if everyone suddenly changed their minds to thinking prplhz was town, I didn't know it, because no one said anything in the thread. I was working under the assumption that town agreed he was scum, but we were divided on whether he was mafia or SK.
That's my blitz case on Wiggles. It's not exceptionally strong, as I haven't been able to really flesh out my case. I'm not necessarily making a judgement on Wiggles, as I want to first reread prplhz/chaoser. I'd like to hear Grey's and BB's thoughts though.
Wiggles, if you want to respond to this, that's fine, though most of my case is built on tone and motivation. Additionally on Palmar's interaction with you, which I didn't touch on.
That's my response. Looking forward to what you think of prplhz. Also, I want you to comment on GreYMisT. We still have to find the SK after we kill prpl.
|
Lol, I got ninja'ed while writing.
This is long overdue:
##Vote: prplhz
We need to kill mafia to remove their KP. If you don't think prplhz is mafia, make a case for someone else and present it. Otherwise, he dies.
|
Well, fuck me...
So which of you is mafia, and which is the SK?
|
On June 21 2012 09:08 GreYMisT wrote:
Well there is no way I can win now, haha.
So you're the mafia and rad is SK?
|
On June 21 2012 09:13 GreYMisT wrote:
Nope, im the town. If I were mafia I would still have KP, and if i were the SK i would be bulletproof and have a shot left (assuming BB was modkilled)
How does your KP help you when the SK's bullet-proof and presumably still has his bullet. That means me or you is dying tonight and he wins. If you shoot me and he shoots you he's the last man standing. gg no re.
|
Wait, so is everyone pretending to have my role now or what?
I should have lynched both of you for being so useless and not pushing any real lynches... Too late now, I guess. =/
|
On June 21 2012 09:27 GreYMisT wrote:
Ok assume I am the town player here. SK, You and me both win if you shoot the "not GreYMisT" player left and I don't die. This is a win/win scenario for you. Either you shoot the mafia and he doesnt trust me and shoots you, we are both alive and win. If he shoots me and you shoot him, You are the last left and GG you win.
Except the same thing happens if you're mafia too, lol. You're just trying to play for a happily ever after ending with mafia and the SK joint winning.
Whichever of you two are SK needs to decide which of the other two players is mafia and shoot them. Hopefully you make the right choice (not me). I'd rather not let mafia joint win.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
