Pick Your Poison Mafia

On May 30 2012 21:51 Zephirdd wrote:
IMO secret ballot shouldn't be used. Too much confusion if I understood it right.

Also, scratch the last encrypted code.
+ Show Spoiler [what I picked] +

I don't see anyone doing that yet, and I'm sad please post, encrypted, the role you picked for mafia(try to encrypt a phrase like "I picked *** because YYY" so it's hard to reverse-crack it). After this phase we de-crack our codes and verify the role we made mafia pick.

On May 30 2012 21:52 Radfield wrote:


No, if we don't all decide on roleblocker, and KNOW that we have given them roleblocker, mafia just give us the cop and the tracker, and we can't trust either role because we don't know if there is a gf or framer. Which essentially means that we get no power roles, or worse, we get roles we can't trust.

We NEED to know that they got roleblocker, or else all our checks are suspect, and mafia can talk themselves out of any red check. In every single scenario it is worth giving them roleblocker, and KNOWING that we have given them roleblocker.

On May 30 2012 21:15 Toadesstern wrote:
[...]
2nd Point is that a framer is way more dangerous than a RB. If we have a RB in play and some guy told us he got rb'ed, awesome, that's it. If we have a framer in play and some cop or tracker checked someone that can possibly end up disastrous.
Just picture C9++ #2.
[...]

On May 31 2012 04:56 slOosh wrote:

If we have a hard time getting a majority then how is giving mafia +1 vote poison a good idea?

On May 31 2012 05:02 talismania wrote:



I don't follow this - the difference between +1 majority and +1 mafia vote is either us having to get 6 votes together or us having to get 7 votes together. If you're really scared about getting a majority together day one then why aren't you pushing for mayoral election?

On May 31 2012 05:33 HiroPro wrote:
Toad: I agree with you on the mayoral vote being a good mid-game poison and "secret hidden vote" being a good d1 choice. But I don't really get why you feel that "+1 majority vote" is bad for d2. I know that wheel of fortune had a problem with no-lynches, but looking at some other recent normal minis "C9++ and Mr Wiggles II", neither of them had any no-lynches. And day 2 is a time when you have stuff to analyze and look at; consolidation shouldn't be a problem.

On May 31 2012 05:56 prplhz wrote:
Bluelightz says that scum votes for town's role and town votes for scum's role, but not that scum don't vote for town's role. The reason why I was confused about this in the first place is because the OP actually says "town votes for scum role" and I don't know if "town" actually includes scum. I'm still a little confused but everybody seems to think that scum don't vote so I guess that they don't.

On May 31 2012 08:07 Radfield wrote:
Always tryin to bandwagon me toad

On May 31 2012 08:13 Toadesstern wrote:

I am pretty sure it' the other way around

On June 01 2012 01:25 prplhz wrote:
[...]

@Toadesstern What do you think about it? You are acting as if my post had "Toadesstern" in place of all the "wherebugsgo"s. You are saying that you want more content and that the thread is in a bad state, and then you say that you're not going to do anything until everybody has been in here and told you their vote. That's pretty self contradictory behavior. Give me something.

On June 01 2012 03:33 wherebugsgo wrote:
Let's kill Toad and Kurumi.

Kurumi's meta is troll as town and play serious as scum. Obviously that makes him scum this game.

Toad is playing too carefully to be town. He has elements of his normal self centered-ness but usually he at least calls people out. Instead he seems to be worried he'll get called out for "not caring" like I was, when if he was town he'd probably not go that far.

On June 01 2012 03:36 HiroPro wrote:
Key: KWUIR-KMBIV-QPGAY-CZTNK-BZSVT-ERHIS-YFULP-ZUYOK-GOKYP-TLBON-PIDIC-AAFXW

Choose Godfather, I did.

---

Meh, I guess the encryption wasn't really that useful then. I thought it'd make it so that mafia have to guess on what votes to fake.

---

Kurumi: So what I get from your Radfield case is that you think he is scum because he tells everyone to pick Roleblocker even though it's a good role for scum? But I don't really follow that; while I think roleblocker is a strong role for mafia also, Radfield's argument was not bad. And I don't see this contradiction that you are talking about.

On June 01 2012 05:03 HiroPro wrote:




Maybe it was clear to you that the votes would only be between Framer and Roleblocker. It wasn't to me; not when the majority of people had not said what they were going to vote for. After Radfield made his argument on why Roleblocker was the best choice, I voted for roleblocker as I felt that Radfield made a good point on town gaining an advantage from knowing exactly what role mafia would get. I realized a little later though, that mafia would derive the exact same benefit if I followed Radfield's plan, so I changed my vote to the role that was worst for mafia in my opinion (godfather).

On June 01 2012 23:45 prplhz wrote:
Oh yea I totally forgot.

I apparently didn't get my vote counted 'cause I screwed up and only sent it to Bluelightz and not to kitaman27.

Just so you know it.

Ties are broken using standard tie-breaking procedures.

The selected roles will not be revealed, however the mafia team will be provided with the voting results.

On June 02 2012 02:15 talismania wrote:


This hurts my head - first,

Does mafia getting the voting results mean that they got the results of who everyone voted for? Just the totals? Just the winner?

Second, if they did get full results, how could that have any bearing on hiro's play? He voted GF before the deadline no matter what, therefore he would have to explain it no matter what. How does he modify that knowing that prp didn't vote?

I think there are less convoluted reasons to vote Hiro that people have already raised, if you're going to vote Hiro.

(On a sidenote toad I think I owe you an apology because it looks like you were right about the difficulty in getting to a majority day one.)

___________________


@Radfield

Of course I would also vote Zephirdd (and probably will unless we need a 6th/7th vote somewhere else - avoiding no lynch is the top priority) - it's not just that he's been vacillating, it's that it feels like he's been doing it to see if anyone he pushes will get momentum in the town. He's playing it pretty out in the open as well (owning up to it with his last "I change my mind too much" post) which is brazen but probably the correct play if he's scum.

I'm curious about how you're thinking about the game as a whole - you've also been throwing some names out as though to see what sticks (sloosh, sbrubbles, zephirdd) but I haven't seen anything like the analysis you did to parse apart Blazinghand and tunkeg in I'm a cop you Idiot. For instance, is your consideration of voting zephirdd based on what hiro said, what I said, what you thought yourself, etc?

On June 01 2012 22:02 risk.nuke wrote:
I am pleased with radfield and I no longer want to make radpie.
On the other hand I believe we could vastly benefit from shortening hiro by a head, turning sloosh into slush and murdering zepphird.

On June 02 2012 01:10 Radfield wrote:
What do people think about sbrubbles right now? I'd like to look more into him when I have time, as his most recent post is tickling my scum senses.

I'm considering voting zephirdd though. Anyone else willing to vote Z-man?

On June 02 2012 03:04 prplhz wrote:
I'm okay with lynching Sbrubbles.

wherebugsgo apparently isn't going anywhere. Both him, Navilus, and especially risk.nuke need to post more.

On June 02 2012 05:42 prplhz wrote:
Read his town games, read his day0 play this game, first time scum mostly try not to stick out and he absolutely knows how to do this better than this. He is sticking out very much with his two measly posts and I very much doubt any scum would think that this would ever be enough not to get lynched. I expect him to get back and tell us why he's been playing so horribly on day1 but I don't think that he's scum right now.

I'm not saying he's new, I'm saying he's first time scum.

On June 01 2012 05:08 Radfield wrote:
[...]

Did we actually just catch scum by hiropro voting godfather?? Time to filter!!

On June 02 2012 06:59 Radfield wrote:


Come on now Toad... you know better than that. You CANNOT draw connections between players like that when their alignments are unknown.

That's actually a bit concerning.

Either VE or Rad is 100% mafia
Either Ace or Marv is probably mafia

On June 02 2012 07:50 talismania wrote:


Doesn't he have like 4-5 votes? Unless I'm really reading the rules wrong, majority right now is 6 (Number of players divided by two rounded up) with a supermajority of 7 required to avoid any complications from the secret vote if zephirdd also hits 5.

On June 02 2012 07:56 Toadesstern wrote:

As far as I can see he has 3 votes and the majority is 8, isn't it?

On June 02 2012 09:02 slOosh wrote:
Toad since you are here can you flesh out the GF explanation?

This is also my beef with Sbrubbles. If it was so obvious that it would be a vote split between RB and framer, then mafia would understand that there is no need to vote 1-1-1 because the whole point you vote 1-1-1 is to slip by lie detection, not to confuse town what role mafia has. Hiro voted GF. You are claiming that he is one of mafia who still chose to vote 1-1-1 knowing that RB and framer are the only plausible roles that they will get.

So why are you calling Hiro scum by saying that the situation would make a good scum play and therefore he must be scum?

I want to vote Sbrubbles for the same reason, as well as how much resistance its been facing. Seriously like 2 or 3 times people just avert discussion away from that dude.

On June 02 2012 09:04 HiroPro wrote:


Are you lying town or lying scum.

On June 02 2012 09:10 HiroPro wrote:



I am not hiroprotagonist and I have never played a game with you in my life. I have played in newbie VI, newbie newbie VIII, and I am in Magic right now.

On June 02 2012 09:17 Toadesstern wrote:

LOL I assumed you're hiroProtagonist who shortened his nick to HiroPro.

On June 02 2012 09:34 slOosh wrote:
Nah - let's get some thoughts on Sbrubbles. Both Navillus and risk.nuke have shown apathy and disinterest in the game and both are worth a lurker lynch. I want thoughts on Sbrubbles.

On June 02 2012 19:35 Kurumi wrote:
You can't even go to bed in those games.
I find Toad staying up to 3am suspicious
You went for a candidate who was the least discussed during the day.
You went for THE WORST CANDIDATE.
This is absolutely terrible. You all followed one person, what are you, lemmings?
Why do I always need to cleanup myself.

On June 03 2012 00:52 Kurumi wrote:

what the heck?

On May 30 2012 23:16 prplhz wrote:
[...]

It's very important for town that we know what role we give them today to eliminate any sort of confusion. If we don't know what role we give them, then they can just argue as if they had any role, and town will just argue along with them. While it's very hard, I think it's very very important that we get a majority+3 on their role so we are absolutely sure what they got. This is even more important than what they end up getting.

Tracker/Medic/Roleblocker combination sounds pretty good to me. What do you mean "without fear of the tracker caliming"?

---

@Radfield What do you mean "scum are going to lie about their votes anyway"?

On June 01 2012 04:15 prplhz wrote:
[...]

What do you think about wherebugsgo, Navilus and risk.nuke?

On June 01 2012 21:07 prplhz wrote:
I still want to lynch wherebugsgo.

[...]

I still want to lynch wherebugsgo.

On June 02 2012 03:04 prplhz wrote:
I'm okay with lynching Sbrubbles.

[...]

On June 02 2012 05:27 prplhz wrote:
@wherebugsgo I don't think that Navilus is scum. First, the guy has never played scum before. Second, his only contributions on day1 so far has been a post saying what he voted, and him calling you out. It doesn't look like he's just trying to avoid mod kill and it very much doesn't look like he's scum trying to hide with only 2 paltry posts during the whole day. I don't think first time scum will not do anything during the day than pick on a town wherebugsgo (but then again, are you town?) Moreover, in the last game I played with him he was also unavailable for a part of the game. You say that he didn't comment on the lynch, one thing that all scum knows to do at all times is have some sort of opinion on the lynch. I'd very much like to keep him around for now.

How do you feel that Sbrubbles has argued in a way that's not scummy, but even townie?

On June 02 2012 05:42 prplhz wrote:
Read his town games, read his day0 play this game, first time scum mostly try not to stick out and he absolutely knows how to do this better than this. He is sticking out very much with his two measly posts and I very much doubt any scum would think that this would ever be enough not to get lynched. I expect him to get back and tell us why he's been playing so horribly on day1 but I don't think that he's scum right now.

I'm not saying he's new, I'm saying he's first time scum.

On June 02 2012 05:44 prplhz wrote:






I'm really just asking if you can clarify what you said.

On June 02 2012 09:02 prplhz wrote:
Blues always say stuff like "It's really not a good idea to lynch me." and "Trust me on this one." and "Town shouldn't lynch me."

I don't know how I manage to miss it all the time.

I'm most likely joining a Navilus lynch because I want a lynch Before, he was just being afk and his day0 actions didn't look too different from everybody else. I played with him before when he was town and afk, and when he came back he was really sorry about it (and wrote a huge post explaining exactly why he was afk). He doesn't look remorseful at all here, that post looks like he wants any sort of heat off of him and hopes that I'll just keep defending him 'cause that's what I did before.

Well I'm not gonna. I'm not all convinced about this but it's the best we can realistically achieve today I think.

##Unvote Sbrubbles
##Vote Navilus

On June 03 2012 12:45 HiroPro wrote:
I've just finished going through filters again with a fresh mind. Not much new stuff was there obviously but there are some things I missed when I first read through everyone.

Toad: I noticed that one of the points in your case on prplhz is that he made a push against WBG with weak reasoning. I agree with this. However, at a very similar time you yourself say that you want to lynch WBG. Please explain why why/when your suspicions on WBG dropped and why you believe that this is scummy behavior by prplhz when you yourself express similar thoughts.

On June 03 2012 13:43 Zephirdd wrote:
Bntw posting from phone while drunkl. Hooray saturdays.

I liedm. I was trying to grab shots in my face. Radfield, idk where you took that -m blue, but ita fun how you instantly bring that I'm not dead. My post at night was a roleblocker/shot magnet. I was not roleblocked so I assume there is a framer out there.

toad, you tk a lot abou prp defending naviludd, but how does defending a town makes him scum?

akso I want to see more risk posts. He is posting too little imo.

On June 03 2012 11:13 Radfield wrote:
Oh yes, and 1 shot cop should claim obviously.

It's possible that this is a decent time for any innocent child to claim, but I'm not sure. There is an optimum time for the IC to claim though, and it's not necessarily only when they are on the ropes. Consider that an IC dying from a nightkill before they have claimed is a completely useless role. The strength comes from us having a confirmed townie for a while, and forcing mafia to shoot in a particular direction(shielding other strong players and the other power role).

Tracker should claim if he tracked mafia to a kill or a frame, though ideally you simply push and build a case first, and only claim if necessary. Standard stuff really.

On June 04 2012 00:08 Zephirdd wrote:


1. You're basically saying that town will stab itself on the foot by lynching me -_-
2. That makes no sense. Wbg is a known veteran and obvious target; Radfield and Kurumi, even though are veterans, have suspicion over eachother(or that's how I see it). Besides, we don't know your alignment; As far as we know, you killed wbg because you thought he'd find you.


Also, with noone claiming to be roleblocked so far, I think it's safe to assume the mafia got a Framer. This is specially true because I wasn't roleblocked even though I "basically" had blueclaimed. Kurumi not being roleblocked/killed isn't incredible, however: mafia knows if there is any Vigilante in game, and Kurumi claiming vigilante would only mean to them "lol fakeclaim" if there is no vigilante in the setup.

---

Not sure what to make about prplhz and toadestern. Zero time to make real long-term analysis, but Toad making such a huge fancy case against prplhz and not answering his rebuttal seems odd. Toad, do you still think prplhz is scum?

Also, prpl

Why would you be worried about someone making a case on you?

To whom it may concern: What is your opinion on Toades/Kurumi X prplhz?

My opinion is that Toadesstern is making a bad case and trying to push for a mislynch. Kurumi gives very little reasoning to his posts, and tunnels himself on a player of choice(Radfield day0/1, prplhz night1/day1). prplhz has answered most of the questions with reasonable responses.

Go you~

On June 03 2012 23:02 Toadesstern wrote:
voted gambit because I have to leave in something like 15 minutes and don't know wether or not I'll be here before the deadline hits. I think so but I can't say for sure.

On June 03 2012 19:45 prplhz wrote:

1: I don't consider that mafia agenda. I think it's better that we know what role mafia has and mafia know what role they have and what roles we have, than that we don't know any roles, and mafia knows all roles. Again, right now we can't know if scum has roleblocker or framer and that's a bad situation for us.

I consider it mafia agend because we will know soon enough wether or not we have a RB or a framer. If noone claimes RB => framer, If someone claimes RB => RB. Yeah it could be faked but come on, who would do that

2: I didn't have a huge reasonable for voting wherebugsgo I agree with that but if you look at how the state of the thread was at the time, nothing was happening, so I made a case that doubled as pressure vote and something to discuss. I had more reasonable on Sbrubbles than what you are posting so you are really just misrepresenting me here. Wanting to lynch you was because nobody was hooked on anything else and I have a hard time reading you while other people were thinking that you were scum so it was an okay lynch. I also NEVER SAID that wherebugsgo HAS TO BE SCUM. You are misrepresenting me.

I never said you said "WBG HAS TO BE SCUM". I said you never gave any reasoning for voting someone except for WBG and that was as weak as it can get.
Also your reasoning on sbrubbles: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/postmessage.php?quote=254&topic_id=340727
Yeah right. That's huge, followed by

I can totally see how you're backing up everything you're saying and how that is more than you said about WBG!
My point still stands: I see you doing very little to explain your thoughts and only once in a while you explain something with either incredible weak reasoning or with something a townie would never say AFTER checking what people are willing to vote and what not.

3: How does it look like that? I want you to answer this question 'cause it looks to me like you're just taking the current buzzword and then applying it to a situation for no reason. If you read my posts you will see that I pushed wherebugsgo and Sbrubbles a lot harder than you make it look like, I'm not testing any waters. What does testing waters even mean?
Yes you are. "Testing waters" or water temperature is somewhat like a metapher for a kid standing next to a pool and instead of jumping in the water he's sticking his toe in there to check if the water is okay to jump in. Is that a german thing?
Anyways I'm seeing that. You keep on asking people what they think about someone without giving something yourself. And some hours later your decide for one guy (in this case WBG and sbrubbles) to push them once you see there's no opposition. And don't even tell me "yeah but look at what I did with nav". It only works in one direction for obvious reasons

4: Yea, different things goes for different people. I played with Navilus in Resistance 2, go read that game. He was afk for a long period of time and he was really sorry about it when he came back. I expected something similar this game but he wasn't sorry when he came back so I decided that he would be an okay lynch.
So you're teling me it was some kind of trap because you already played with him? You think not posting is not alignment indicating and therefore you listed him with another lurker to check what people think about them and disagree about nav once someone would jump in and say they're both looking scummy due to their abstinence?
Or what are you trying to tell me here? Why did you place him in there if not for the lurker thing? Why would you ask something like that about someone you have a townie-read?

5: My reasoning was that a guy who has played some mafia, but hasn't been scum before, wouldn't try to hide by blatantly only make two measly posts.
6: Show me a game where a first time scum has played day1 with only two posts. Only people with well established meta would ever attempt to do that. You say it's happening all the time but I'm saying that it's actually never happening. Show me a single game, 'cause I have never seen it. Do you seriously think that only making 2 posts is a very clear scum tell? Then why didn't you push Navilus at all? This sounds like something you are just making up to use in this analysis.
7: How do you know that he is? He wasn't afraid to posts because I saw him post quite a lot on day1. How is making only 2 measly posts hiding? And are you seriously asking me "How can anybody have any conception about how it is to play scum when they have never played scum before?" because I consider that a very silly question.
5-7 all together: Well I have a conception on how to drive a motorcycle as well and on how to play Zerg to beat Flash in BW ZvT. I never rode a motorcycle nor did beat Flash in a 1v1 yet. I'm pretty sure I'd fail horribly.
Sure people have conceptions on how things should work out but that has nothing to do with reality, especially if it's your first time. All reasoning provided in here is SFW and was not intended as a metaphor for something else!

This is all based on "he never played scum before and I think he would be better as scum than what he see here" and this has nothing to do with reality. Sure he might have an idea on how to play or was told to not be afraid to post but in the end doing that yourself is something entirely different so saying "as a first time mafia player he should know better" makes no sense at all.

8: I honestly don't even know what the accusations is here. What I do notice is that wherebugsgo gets some credit here for "not backing anything up, but still providing basic thoughts". You're accusing me of being scum for that very same reason in argument 2, and in argument 4 you're accusing me of being scum for having double standards! Hilarious.
I'm not giving anyone cred, I only said that what wbg said is at least something people can work with while your usual posts are along the lines of "sup, what do you think of XXX?" while not doing something yourself. It's not about wbg looking good because he's not but he at least managed to make it look nullish while your posts are looking bad and you're asking him to clarify things...

9: Yea, maybe stuff is a little weak, but it was on day1. If you read his filter in Resistance 2 then you'll see him being quite sorry for being afk and I was expecting the same here, except if he didn't feel sorry at all because he was scum. Maybe it's weak, I don't particularly think so for a day1 argument. I didn't say "probably means he's mafia", this is blatant misrepresentation. If you read my posts I give my very clear read of him in that situation and that is, and I quote, because you apparently lack the ability to do so properly: "I'm not all convinced about this but it's the best we can realistically achieve today I think." which translate to "null slightly leaning scum". I'm sure that you, in your fervor, can find something you consider scummy about that too, but can you please argue with what I said instead of this misrepresentation.
I never intented to quote. If I wanted to quote you I would have quoted you instead of putting the phrase in " " tags.
When I put something in " " tags I paraphrase it to what the message reads to me. But glad you agree that the reasoning given by you is really weak after you furiously defended him earlier.


Your conclusion is pretty silly, but overall your analysis is so bullshit that I'm a little less worried about you now. Oh yeah, testing the waters? I think you did that too according to your definition about it, you make short mentions about me in your filter too, and then after Kurumi decides to mindlessly tunnel me for an entire night you jump on it and make a big case. Isn't that testing the waters? What does that even mean?
I already answered that part in another post

"why is defending someone as townie without proper reason something that makes someone scummy?".

On June 04 2012 07:09 talismania wrote:


This is almost exactly how I feel. Anyone who is not looking at the game through the lens of the d0 votes needs to do so.

There's a couple of assumptions to get to mafia having framer that should be stated though:

1) HiroPro is town. Therefore scum did not vote 1-1-1 and likely voted 2-1-0. A big assumption I suppose but as I wrote d1 I can't imagine that if he were scum his scumbuddies would have let him vote GF. Maybe if he's scum with Risk.nuke, who brought up the 1-1-1 thing but that's the only scenario I can see it in.

2) No one claiming being roleblocked means that mafia don't have a roleblocker - the assumption implicit there is that mafia wouldn't use their roleblocker against themselves, knowing that using it on town would give away how the votes played out. Or maybe they didn't use it at all. Would a mafia roleblocker have to use their power? I'm really iffy on this assumption. It depends on if the scum team was smart enough to realize that using the roleblocker would immediately point to two people on the framer list. I feel like they would be but who knows.


So - if there is a framer it's either

toad + risk.nuke
Radfield + prp

I was actually leaning towards toad + radfield earlier because of how buddy-buddy toad acted towards him but now it's clear that is unlikely to be the case, unless they think they need to bus for some reason I guess. Toad and prp can't be together because of the strength of the case toad is making, with the same caveat as with toad and radfield.

Radfield + prp is the "conspiracy theory" pair. To make that case you have to assume that radfield freely cast doubt on prp, even agreeing with prp being shot (although come to think of it I guess that if he was scum he would know that town didn't have a vig so scratch that), and then backed down later. To complete the conspiracy theory, add in zephirdd, whom rad and prp acted together to save by getting the navilus train rolling.

The main problem I can't get past with this pair is prp's play to outright claim "Oh my vote didn't count, btw" Is that really a super-clever scum excuse? I mean (1) having that idea is borderline genius and (2) actually following through with it is incredibly ballsy. Why risk that when you could just lay low amongst the 6 RB voters?

Toad + risk.nuke on the other hand has little to argue against it (there's not much to argue for it either I suppose - toad is as confusing and difficult to understand as he was to me pick your power. Risk-nuke has a lot less thread presence than he did that game but he hasn't really done much yet either). They haven't interacted much with each other. Toad has thrown out a few names, as has risk, but each other's have not come up I don't believe. I don't know who the third would be. I would add zephirdd again because toad said he didn't like the zephirdd lynch d1, but risk.nuke has come out in favor of such a lynch today. One of the other framer voters I guess.

If assumption (2) above is wrong and it's 1-2-0 and there is a roleblocker and not a framer,

then it's some pair out of

sbrubbles, kurumi, zephirdd, and sloosh

Which means it's unlikely to be sloosh and sbrubbles because of sloosh's hard pressure at the end of day one (unless that was just really forward-thinking play or something. It is interesting that sloosh hasn't continued to press sbrubbles day two. Acually a quick filter check shows that he's away this weekend so that explains that.). It's also unlikely to be kurumi and zephirdd because of kurumi's stance toward zephirdd. Any combination of the others is possible in my eyes.

On June 04 2012 07:27 Radfield wrote:
Why is Toad scum.

Or rather, why do I think Toad is scum. This may be slightly long winded, and it certainly won't be concise. Toad is an active player as scum, and has fooled me twice before because of that. There is no clear and decisive scum agenda Toad is pushing, and there is no one thing that makes him scum(though I did find my first ever real-live damning scumslip). Instead what I have is a body of evidence that shows Toad is not playing with Town goals in mind. He is playing in an effort to lead mislynches, and with a goal of keeping town moving in the wrong direction.

I find very little scummy in Toad's Day 0 play. With lots to contribute and lots to discuss it is extremely easy for an active scum player(like Toad) to blend in on Day 0. Apart from the fact that he begins to buddy me very early on, I see little that leads me to think he is scum in the first 24 hours.

Day 1 however is a very different story. I'd like to talk about 4 main points. First, the pushing of Hiropro. Second, the WBG flip flop(which has been discussed, but not adequately). Third, and most damning, the double scum slip. Fourth and lastly, the case on Prplhz. There are also several additional small isolated issues which I will mention.

Please remember that none of these points by themselves indicate that Toad is scum. But taken as an entire body of evidence they amount to a damning case against a very likely scum player.

I'd also like to mention that this case is NOT based on my previous analysis of Framer/Roleblocker/GF votes. That was an exercise to narrow down my focus, NOT the basis of a case. However I am confident that I was correct in my assessment.

---

Point Number 1: the attack on Hiropro

What I'd like to represent is that Toad attempts to push a lynch onto Hiro very strongly. A lynch not based on whether or not Hiro is scummy, but rather based solely on the fact that Hiro voted GF. Additionally, Toad states strongly and ephatically that Hiro is scum.... and then waffles away and gives alternate targets.

Let me say that again, he is almost sure that hiro is scum, going so far as to say "Hiro is basicly a claimed mafia", but then offers up other lynch options. What!? If you think a guy is for sure scum, and has slipped hard, you don't just offer up other options.

Also, witness the tone:

First, incredulity and confusion, but no accusation:



Second: Weirdness and oddness, with some discussion about why you should stick to the plans. Again, no hint of a strong accusation here. An accusation perhaps of not being a team player, even equating his play to a townie from a different game, but both those things actually soft accuse Hiropro of being Town, just not a team player.



Next post and several hours later Toad drops down his vote without further discussion. No additional points raised, but we've gone from gentle admonition to wanting him to hang.

He follows it up with this post which is a giant contradiction. A) thinks Hiro is basically a claimed mafia. B) is willing to lynch some other guy who is NOT a claimed mafia in Toads eyes. That does not jive one bit.




Toad then goes on to only softly push Hiropro. First adding on a convoluted reason for him to be scum, which is quickly shown to be incorrect, and then falling into softy urging posts like these:

+ Show Spoiler +

This from a guy who felt he had bagged a scum straight up. The real gist here is that Toad's tone does not follow any kind of cohesion. He's hot and cold and up and down on hiro, but always with a pushing towards lynch.

---

Point 2: The bugs flip=flop

First Toad makes 3 posts that point him having a pretty null read on bugs, and certainly not a scum read:
+ Show Spoiler +

However, without mentioning him again, he now wants to lynch bugs. Not only that, but he's adding in bugs when he has already apparently found a 'claimed mafia' in Hiropro.



Also, look at his reasoning: not knowing the cycle was 24 hours, and not posting. Yet those are the exact thing that Toad mentioned earlier, not as scummy though, but as null! So how do those things suddenly become the basis of a case to rival hiropro, someone he thinks is very likely scum.

Straight up contradictions.

---

Point 3: The scum slips

Let me be clear that I have never before found what I consider to be a true 'scum-slip'. The word gets bandied about on this site, and can mean pretty much anything. What it really means though, is to be in possession of information that townies could not possibly have, and only mafia could have.




hmm, where's the scum-slip you ask? I missed it at first too, but it's very clearly there. Toad is absolutely 100% he will be around on Day 2. There is only 1 way, and I do mean 1 way, that Toad can be convinced he will live till Day 2.

But maybe it was just a slip of the tongue, and he's not actually sure he'll survive the night....



Except he does it again!! He confirms the scumslip. This is a guy who just recently was shot night 1 in WoF mini-mafia, and has been getting shot more and more by mafia. There is no reason at all he should be certain he'll survive the night. In fact, if he is town he should be expecting that he is one of the more likely shots.

In fact, he even posts his prplhz case right before the deadline, as if he might get shot. But how then is he 100% certain he'll survive till Day 2. There are no vets, and no other way he could be certain he will survive.

The only way to be certain is if he is scum.

---

Point 4: The prplhz case

I'm going to make this brief, as I feel there is already a body of evidence that shows Toads guilt without this. However Toads push on prplhz is indicative of a scum-push. Very often, when a scum player tries to push a townie, he does it by citing the wrong reasons. There are reasons to see prplhz as scummy, but NOT because of his defense of Navillus.

The key is that prplhz defended Navillus several times, but then switched over and voted for him early on in the wagon(3rd vote). There is an argument to be made there that prplhz was scummy in doing that. Toad touches on that, but his focus is squarely on the fact that prplhz should not have found Navillus scummy in the first place.

This is a competely backwards approach, one because prplhz was clear in his reasoning, and second because townies are defended all the time along the same lines prplhz was using.

Toad is pushing prplhz for the wrong reason, something which scum do all the time. This is not a particularly strong point, but a valid one nonetheless.

---

Additionally, Toad has been buddying me all game, asking for activity without contributing himself and appealing to dead players. Add in the 4 points of my case, and you have a player who is almost assuredly mafia.


Vote for Toad. In fact, I don't even mind if you vote in the voting thread too, as I'm fairly sure he is scum.

##Vote: Toadesstern

On June 04 2012 08:11 Toadesstern wrote:
Basicly: Read PYP and LV (n1, especially wbg's answer ) and nothing you mentioned stands as a reason to think I am mafia unless you consider the scumslip as something.

The scumslip is obviously bullshit. As you pointed out. I said I'm going to make a big post and see you d2. I was referring to the post about Prplhz. That's why I said I don't people to talk about reads n1 when I saw Kurumi go at prplhz.
I was referring to my case on prplhz and that shows I am referring to the deadline when I'm saying "see you d2" and not to some other post that isn't even existing...

On May 30 2012 09:48 wherebugsgo wrote:
Shut up Toad you're not worth a mafia bullet. You cause so much disruption regardless of alignment it's no wonder everyone calls you hypnotoad.

We kill gambit man today. He ninja voted ET yesterday and he's said nothing. Eat shit and die, scum.

##vote Gambitx32

On June 04 2012 08:16 talismania wrote:


Actually, another point in light of the case rad just posted: why did you reply so defensively to my post at all?

On June 04 2012 08:34 HiroPro wrote:
EBWOP: My formatting is all screwed up.

---

There's no need to be rude. You never mention what parts of my case or talismania's reads or Radfield's reads on Zephirdd you agree with. The reasons that you mention have nothing to do with whether or not he is mafia. You are being extremely inactive and not making any proper reads or cases of your own. Don't expect me to treat you like confirmed town.

---

I agree with Radfield. I don't find the "going to be there d2" scummy but both the push on me (the uneven nature of it, especially when I look at people like Sbrubbles who also pushed me but did it very differently) and the really strange accusation on WBG (especially when Toad attempted to use this in his case against prplhz) are scummy. Toad's response to my questioning on the WBG part of his case against prplhz was bad, especially since he misrepresents prplhz (says that prplhz continued to push for WBG lynch), when in fact that was not the case at all.

Zephirdd and risk.nuke are both looking a little weird to me, but Toad's behavior is not only very scummy, but has clear mafia motives.

##Vote: Toadesstern (I will not be voting in the actual thread until much closer to the deadline)

On June 04 2012 08:35 Radfield wrote:



Allow me to remove the irrelevent parts of your post and leave the only relevant bit:



OK, that's much easier to read. You are trying to tell me that when you said D2, you were actually referring to the end of night 1.... right....



'once day 2 has started'

'once day 2 has started'

'once day 2 has started'

How does 'once day 2 has started', mean 'the end of night 1'.

I know it sucks when you caught in a scum-slip, but take solace in the fact that it was only the icing on the cake. I was leaning strong scum on you before I even found that.

On May 30 2012 09:48 wherebugsgo wrote:
Shut up Toad you're not worth a mafia bullet. You cause so much disruption regardless of alignment it's no wonder everyone calls you hypnotoad.

[...]

On June 04 2012 09:44 prplhz wrote:
Did you read Navilus' first 5 posts in Resistance 2 that I linked you to yet Toadesstern?

On June 04 2012 10:04 prplhz wrote:
I really hate when people just ignore my questions. I can only assume it's because the answer is "No" 'cause you probably wouldn't be reluctant to say "Yes" if that was the case and you very obviously saw my question.

I don't get how you can't read 5 short posts that I link you directly to but you have no quarrels expecting everybody else to read 1 game + 1 cycle when you're asking them to.

On June 04 2012 13:51 HiroPro wrote:
Meh, risk.nuke's filter is still so shallow that it's hard to analyze anything. What little he does have doesn't look very good, but I'm favoring the Toad lynch.

Toad has a clear agenda in hunting for mislynches. And Toad's responses have mostly been to the "alive on day 2 thing", which I don't really consider alignment-revealing, and frankly isn't something worth discussing further.

He still doesn't really say why he tried to push a case based almost solely on a game mechanic. And he sidesteps the issue of how he went from "oh be a team player" to "confirmed mafia" to "lynch between these people is fine" by saying that "confirmed" is just a quirk of speech, and not something he really means and also with the whole "hiro protagonist-HiroPro" confusion, but that was well after the changing opinions.

And Sbrubbles appears to have disappeared.

On June 04 2012 12:59 talismania wrote:


Actually I think it's more telling that toad HASN'T been attacking radfield. I mean, he's attacked rad's scumhunting abilities, but he hasn't said that he thinks rad is scum, or that rad is pushing a scum agenda, nor does it even seem like he has considered it. That's strange as hell if he's town.

toad,

what do you think Rad's alignment is? Why?

You think prp is scum. Who do you think the other two are?

On June 04 2012 19:43 Kurumi wrote:

I think he is saying that there must be scum in the vet list

On June 05 2012 02:12 slOosh wrote:
Alright - I've caught up on the thread.

@Radfield - the "nonsense GF vote" refers to when several players attacked HiroPro for his GF vote but none could properly procure (in my opinion) a decent explanation as why it was scummy. That said, many of my town reads find Sbrubbles ok and right now there is the more pressing matter of consolidating today's lynch.

Before that I want to preface my vote by saying that there are several players who seem keen on chasing red herrings.
Stuff like "the game must be balanced in terms of vets", "why did mafia shoot WBG", "what roles would scum give town" are all that. Not because they are illegitimate discussion points (except the first one I think that's total rubbish), but there is a more pressing matter at hand which is deciding today's lynch and these three questions really do very little to nothing to determine which is the best candidate for the lynch, and serve as distractions that cripple town's focus.

I find myself agreeing strongly with Radfield's read on Toadesstern, more so because of the way Toad responded to his case. As talismania pointed out, he doesn't actually consider Radfield as possible scum. He defends himself not by showing why the case's points are flawed, but rather throwing out discussion points such as balance

as well as focusing upon the "scumslip". Radfield said himself that his case isn't built up on standalone points but that they all together suggest a pattern rather than coincidences. Yet he is treating the case as if it was some runaway bandwagon caused by someone finding a "scumslip" and focusing all his attention on this point, despite people actually thinking the opposite (compelled by the other points of the case / his response to it rather than the "scumslip")



I think we got something solid here:
##Vote: Toadesstern


P.s. I also think risk.nuke is scum and a great D3 lynch candidate. The reason why I support a Toad lynch over risk is because the case is stronger.

On June 05 2012 03:16 Toadesstern wrote:
do you have a particularly good read on risk either way based on something he did so far? I doubt it...

I have him put down as a possibility for mafia slot #2 but I can't tell so far, because again he hasn't posted.

On June 05 2012 04:03 slOosh wrote:


You just proved my point right there with your 4 quotes. 1 is a defense against the case as a whole, and 3 focus on the "scumslip". The key word is "focus". You linger on the scumslip even though no one at the time expressed a scum read on you because they felt particularly compelled by the slip.

On June 04 2012 21:13 Kurumi wrote:
I find it funny that the thing that made Radfield's case strong for me is the "see you d2" slip and many people dismiss it as something normal.

On June 05 2012 00:32 Radfield wrote:
Prplhz, my most recent two scum games were Arkham City 2, and Couples Retreat. Lotr was before that.

I really shouldn't have posted that I thought a shot on you was a good idea, and never would have if you hadn't explicitly asked. There were a few things though that were making you think you were scum right then. As I mentioned before, I actually had you written down as PROB TOWN in my notes. Pretty sure it was a combo of a) your vote on navillus after defending him, b) voting majority +1 when the obvious vote was lynch lock(majority +1 would be quite mafia favoured given that we had little focus at the end of day 1) and c) the fact that it seemed you were overconfident Kurumi had no gun.

All that being said, once I filter you again yesterday I felt you were fairly strongly town aligned.

@Sbrubbles, you're right, I misread when filtering. Not sure how that happened.




Thank you. I agree it is the strongest part, and am a bit baffled that people think townies commonly refer to the end of night 1 as day 2. Or that they state with confidence they will be around on day 2. It simply DOES NOT HAPPEN.

On June 05 2012 04:39 slOosh wrote:

Of the 4 quotes Toad has mentioned, the last one has a timestamp of:
On June 04 2012 09:41 Toadesstern wrote:

Compared to
On June 04 2012 21:13 Kurumi wrote:
On June 05 2012 00:32 Radfield wrote:

Additionally, Rad never said that the slip was the crux of his case at all. Strongest point =/= basis.
Toad is misinterpreting things.

On June 05 2012 05:30 slOosh wrote:

Where are you getting the impression that the scumslip is why I think he is scum?

This thread is on the lower side of post count. After Radfield's one time response against Toad's initial defense, Toad responds by specifically pointing out the scumslip. It is he himself who brings all the focus and attention on this point. It's only then that Radfield bites and they have that back and forth. This isn't a matter of his inability to discern what people's major suspicions on him are - because there aren't any in the thread yet! He is selectively choosing what to respond to - e.g. from this post by Radfield, he only responds to the third point.

You seem to be doing the thing that Toad is doing and reading out of context. At the time no one expressed that the scumslip was the most damning aspect of the case.

On June 05 2012 05:53 Kurumi wrote:
Toad, I might get a vote off you if you tell me who should I kill

On June 05 2012 05:48 Radfield wrote:
prplhz, you're wrong. Toad is scum, and is scrambling, misrepresenting and lying in an effort to avoid a lynch. He is NOT adequetely explaining his actions, instead he is talking around the issues, and bringing up tangential points instead addressing the true points in my case.

1. I explain how his early actions regarding Hiropro were scummy. Including his demeanor changes, vote and reasoning. Toad answers by talking about the Hiropro vs Hiroprotagonist issue, which had NOTHING TO DO with what I was talking about. It didn't matter WHO he thought he was talking to, because the way he was doing it was inherently scummy.

2. He originally used the 'not talking much' thing as an excuse to call bugs null, and then later added that in to his case on bugs being scummy. Something cannot be null to start, and then with no change become scummy later on when you try to think up reasons to lynch him. Toad completely ignores this part and only talks about the 24 hour thing and how he thought it was weird(not even scummy, yet he lists it as one of his reasons for finding bugs scummy).

3. He defends himself completely inadequately. Anyone who does not see this for a scum slip has not played enough mafia. You DO NOT say 'see you on day 2' when you actually mean 'see you at the end of night 1'. He also tries to stretch it as if I am claiming their is some Day 2 post, when that has nothing to do with what I am talking about. I'm talking about his confidence that he will survive to Day 2.

4. He never actually responds to my issues here.

He is also deliberately stretching the truth or lying. He accused me of 'always thinking he was scum when he was town', but when I pressed him for examples he ignored me. He claims I think my entire case is based on the scum-slip, when I never said anything remotely similar. He claims my case was built out of my voting analysis, when I clearly and deliberately stated that was not the case. He claims I said that 3 of my points were 'weak', when of course I said no such thing.

Toad is deliberately skewing things and trying to misdirect. He is scum.

I also agree that risk.nuke is probably scum too, and see no redeeming features to his play. That being said, I feel Toad is a much larger threat than risk.nuke, as he is far more able to wiggle out of a lynch if I die. risk is going no where however.

Additionally, assuming for a moment that we had an equal read on both Toad and risk, we gain wayyyyy more information from a Toad red flip than a risk red flip. Obviously we don't lynch based on getting info, but that doesn't mean we should disregard it either.

2. He originally used the 'not talking much' thing as an excuse to call bugs null, and then later added that in to his case on bugs being scummy. Something cannot be null to start, and then with no change become scummy later on when you try to think up reasons to lynch him. Toad completely ignores this part and only talks about the 24 hour thing and how he thought it was weird(not even scummy, yet he lists it as one of his reasons for finding bugs scummy).

1. I explain how his early actions regarding Hiropro were scummy. Including his demeanor changes, vote and reasoning. Toad answers by talking about the Hiropro vs Hiroprotagonist issue, which had NOTHING TO DO with what I was talking about. It didn't matter WHO he thought he was talking to, because the way he was doing it was inherently scummy.

On June 05 2012 06:08 HiroPro wrote:


This is really poor logic, especially when you consider that Toad said a little while back that Radfield is probably town.

On June 09 2012 16:48 Bluelightz wrote:
Oh well wtf.

Also, if any mafia wants to rage at me its because i rngd lol >.<

Anyway this is my analysis after reading filters (yay thats right free tips!)

note that I will point shit out depending on my instincts.

1.Sbrubbles
+ Show Spoiler +
2. Kurumi
+ Show Spoiler +
3. Zephirdd
+ Show Spoiler +
4.HiroPro
+ Show Spoiler +
5.Navilllus
+ Show Spoiler +
6.prplhz
+ Show Spoiler +
7.talismania
+ Show Spoiler +
8.Toadesttern
+ Show Spoiler +
9.wherebugsgo
+ Show Spoiler +
10.Radfield
+ Show Spoiler +
11.risk.nuke
+ Show Spoiler +
12.slOosh
+ Show Spoiler +

Thanks for playing people, sorry if your comments are too short or something.

WBG:
Okay the wbg thing was pretty straight forward. We had both you and WBG being town and we thought we couldn't let both of you survive n1 and had to shoot either you or WBG. That was the basic thought.
Both you and WBG were pretty clueless d1 and both of you actually ended up defending at least 1 mafia each saying you have a townread on him while pushing town. So from the looks of it you were both equally off the track.
The 2 things that decided the shot on WBG for me were those two:
In LI he ended up having NO clue at all d1 and after VE and I bussed each other hardcore making WBG say "if that's a bus it's the best bus I've ever seen on TL" he still ended up with a list of 6 people at the deadline that was 5/6 dead on right, only being wrong on me because of that bus. That was really impressive and I was really scared about something like that because he tends to not have a clue at all and out of nowhere he figured out everyone while you tend to figure out mafia one at a time from those games I saw you play. But that was just a sidenote, the really important thing was actually already mentioned by you:
We picked 2-1 in votes. 2 RB and 1 framer. Nav voted RB and your analysis based on votes was really good and we thought something like that might happen so the thing that made us shoot WBG instead of you was the fact that he voted framer and not RB. If we had shot you instead we pictured it would be equally dangerous while having 2 people killed out of the "voted RB" group while having 2 players of our own in there and WBG still alive. We really didn't want to see that happening.

On June 10 2012 00:32 talismania wrote:


The problem toad is that if I didn't bus you, what would have happened D3? We would have all been at mylo, sure, but who do we get mislynched? Prp? Zephirdd? It would have been an uphill struggle. Then again it might have been a better chance that what ended up happening.