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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 04 2012 06:07 prplhz wrote:
@Radfield Requesting a paragraph or two about your opinion of talismania (that he's likely town).
Also I'd like to know why you preferred a potential vigilante killing me over risk.nuke last night, and what changed your opinion today.
I reread your filter is what changed my mind.
There was something funny going on with your posts though, and you voted Navillus real quick after defending him for a bit. I think Kurumi wrote something that swayed me a bit as well. I'm really not sure why I was leaning scummy on you right there, I even had you written down as PROB TOWN in my notes. I could go back and reread and tell you my thought process, but I really don't feel like it right now, though your question is a valid one.
I also don't really feel like writing about talismania, though I will at a later date. Right now I want to build my case.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Why is Toad scum.
Or rather, why do I think Toad is scum. This may be slightly long winded, and it certainly won't be concise. Toad is an active player as scum, and has fooled me twice before because of that. There is no clear and decisive scum agenda Toad is pushing, and there is no one thing that makes him scum(though I did find my first ever real-live damning scumslip). Instead what I have is a body of evidence that shows Toad is not playing with Town goals in mind. He is playing in an effort to lead mislynches, and with a goal of keeping town moving in the wrong direction.
I find very little scummy in Toad's Day 0 play. With lots to contribute and lots to discuss it is extremely easy for an active scum player(like Toad) to blend in on Day 0. Apart from the fact that he begins to buddy me very early on, I see little that leads me to think he is scum in the first 24 hours.
Day 1 however is a very different story. I'd like to talk about 4 main points. First, the pushing of Hiropro. Second, the WBG flip flop(which has been discussed, but not adequately). Third, and most damning, the double scum slip. Fourth and lastly, the case on Prplhz. There are also several additional small isolated issues which I will mention.
Please remember that none of these points by themselves indicate that Toad is scum. But taken as an entire body of evidence they amount to a damning case against a very likely scum player.
I'd also like to mention that this case is NOT based on my previous analysis of Framer/Roleblocker/GF votes. That was an exercise to narrow down my focus, NOT the basis of a case. However I am confident that I was correct in my assessment.
Point Number 1: the attack on Hiropro
What I'd like to represent is that Toad attempts to push a lynch onto Hiro very strongly. A lynch not based on whether or not Hiro is scummy, but rather based solely on the fact that Hiro voted GF. Additionally, Toad states strongly and ephatically that Hiro is scum.... and then waffles away and gives alternate targets.
Let me say that again, he is almost sure that hiro is scum, going so far as to say "Hiro is basicly a claimed mafia", but then offers up other lynch options. What!? If you think a guy is for sure scum, and has slipped hard, you don't just offer up other options.
Also, witness the tone:
First, incredulity and confusion, but no accusation:
On June 01 2012 04:39 Toadesstern wrote:
That's got to be a joke. Godfather? Why?!?! It was clear the decision would be either RB or framer at some point and you chose to pick Godfather and completly wasted your vote?
Someone explained (I think risk?) d0 that the only solution to not screw up as mafia is to pick 1-1-1. 1 guy votes RB, one guy votes framer, one guy picks GF because that way they add 1 to each thing and don't change a thing.
So wtf?
Second: Weirdness and oddness, with some discussion about why you should stick to the plans. Again, no hint of a strong accusation here. An accusation perhaps of not being a team player, even equating his play to a townie from a different game, but both those things actually soft accuse Hiropro of being Town, just not a team player.
On June 01 2012 05:29 Toadesstern wrote:
Well you've got to agree that it's looking weird that you are apparently the only one who voted GF when we talked about how 1-1-1 is the only way for mafia to not screw up and all the talk d0 was either about RB > framer or about framer > RB.
Why didn't you talk about this? This is essentially the same thing I was talking about in PYP when talking with risk.
I have no problem with people telling me they think otherwise and that we should change a "plan" but I do have a problem with people ninja-voting without telling us screwing us over.
If what you said is reasonable (and I don't think it is) you should have tried to explain to us why what you said is reasonable. Yet here you stand, voting GF and it's apparently not important enough to you what role mafia gets because you haven't told us so and you still voted GF and not, like everyone else either RB or framer. That's really odd.
Next post and several hours later Toad drops down his vote without further discussion. No additional points raised, but we've gone from gentle admonition to wanting him to hang.
He follows it up with this post which is a giant contradiction. A) thinks Hiro is basically a claimed mafia. B) is willing to lynch some other guy who is NOT a claimed mafia in Toads eyes. That does not jive one bit.
On June 01 2012 21:50 Toadesstern wrote:
I'd like to lynch into hiro or wbg at this point.
Hiro is basicly a claimed mafia who says "well yeah, but would a mafia claim mafia?" which just doesn't work for me anymore since PYP.
WBG is just plain ridiculous right now and he's way better as town than what we see here. Add that to what I mentioned earlier about him (not knowing the d0 cycle was only 24 hours, not posting) and I feel like wbg would be the best vet to lynch into if I can convince you to lynch into a vet :p
Toad then goes on to only softly push Hiropro. First adding on a convoluted reason for him to be scum, which is quickly shown to be incorrect, and then falling into softy urging posts like these:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 02 2012 06:17 Toadesstern wrote:1. Toad says hiro votin GF is incredible scummy 2. Rad posts: Show nested quote +On June 01 2012 05:08 Radfield wrote:
[...]
Did we actually just catch scum by hiropro voting godfather?? Time to filter!!
3. ... 4. Nothing? What was your result of filterting him? That statement I quoted sounds really strong and yet I'm the only one voting hiro when noone has disagreed with it except for hiro? Is there a reason for that? On June 02 2012 06:39 Toadesstern wrote:
Any chance hiros lynch is going to happen? That guy is not playing at all and I still think the GF vote is as scummy as you can get.
That being said Zephird isn't really as much as an option for me... Hiro voted Zephird and I doubt they're bussing on d1 lol On June 02 2012 07:41 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok screw this, hiro is not going to happen... need to think and read and vice versa
This from a guy who felt he had bagged a scum straight up. The real gist here is that Toad's tone does not follow any kind of cohesion. He's hot and cold and up and down on hiro, but always with a pushing towards lynch.
Point 2: The bugs flip=flop
First Toad makes 3 posts that point him having a pretty null read on bugs, and certainly not a scum read:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 01:10 Toadesstern wrote:
[EDIT: referring to bugs:)Well the game only now started and I probably look like I don't care right now as well as I'm not posting at all.
The thing is that we're lacking activity right now, we haven't even got an update from everyone what they've voted and we need that.
On June 01 2012 01:52 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On June 01 2012 01:25 prplhz wrote:
[...]
@Toadesstern What do you think about it? You are acting as if my post had "Toadesstern" in place of all the "wherebugsgo"s. You are saying that you want more content and that the thread is in a bad state, and then you say that you're not going to do anything until everybody has been in here and told you their vote. That's pretty self contradictory behavior. Give me something. I'm saying that I have the same read about multiple people right now. It could be on purpose, it could be frustration and it's more of a sign of lazyness than an indication of scummyness right now. On June 01 2012 02:35 Toadesstern wrote:
I read the OP once every game and when questions like those appear I check the parragraph again. I was frankly quite shocked that wbg didn't know it's only a 24h cycle because again. Those are the things I keep checking again and again to make sure I understand the details.
I'd take the "didn't know about the 24h"-thing much more as an "not caring about the game"-argument than the fact that people are posting so little right now.
However, without mentioning him again, he now wants to lynch bugs. Not only that, but he's adding in bugs when he has already apparently found a 'claimed mafia' in Hiropro.
On June 01 2012 21:50 Toadesstern wrote:
I'd like to lynch into hiro or wbg at this point.
Hiro is basicly a claimed mafia who says "well yeah, but would a mafia claim mafia?" which just doesn't work for me anymore since PYP.
WBG is just plain ridiculous right now and he's way better as town than what we see here. Add that to what I mentioned earlier about him (not knowing the d0 cycle was only 24 hours, not posting) and I feel like wbg would be the best vet to lynch into if I can convince you to lynch into a vet :p
Also, look at his reasoning: not knowing the cycle was 24 hours, and not posting. Yet those are the exact thing that Toad mentioned earlier, not as scummy though, but as null! So how do those things suddenly become the basis of a case to rival hiropro, someone he thinks is very likely scum.
Straight up contradictions.
Point 3: The scum slips
Let me be clear that I have never before found what I consider to be a true 'scum-slip'. The word gets bandied about on this site, and can mean pretty much anything. What it really means though, is to be in possession of information that townies could not possibly have, and only mafia could have.
On June 02 2012 10:16 Toadesstern wrote:
got ninja'ed
About sbrubbles: I'll tell you once d2 has started for obvious reasons, sry.
hmm, where's the scum-slip you ask? I missed it at first too, but it's very clearly there. Toad is absolutely 100% he will be around on Day 2. There is only 1 way, and I do mean 1 way, that Toad can be convinced he will live till Day 2.
But maybe it was just a slip of the tongue, and he's not actually sure he'll survive the night....
On June 03 2012 00:35 Toadesstern wrote:
Okay back and I know I promised I would talk about who those 2 guys are I mentioned and why they are mafia but I realized I was retarded when I said that. See you d2 :p
Except he does it again!! He confirms the scumslip. This is a guy who just recently was shot night 1 in WoF mini-mafia, and has been getting shot more and more by mafia. There is no reason at all he should be certain he'll survive the night. In fact, if he is town he should be expecting that he is one of the more likely shots.
In fact, he even posts his prplhz case right before the deadline, as if he might get shot. But how then is he 100% certain he'll survive till Day 2. There are no vets, and no other way he could be certain he will survive.
The only way to be certain is if he is scum.
Point 4: The prplhz case
I'm going to make this brief, as I feel there is already a body of evidence that shows Toads guilt without this. However Toads push on prplhz is indicative of a scum-push. Very often, when a scum player tries to push a townie, he does it by citing the wrong reasons. There are reasons to see prplhz as scummy, but NOT because of his defense of Navillus.
The key is that prplhz defended Navillus several times, but then switched over and voted for him early on in the wagon(3rd vote). There is an argument to be made there that prplhz was scummy in doing that. Toad touches on that, but his focus is squarely on the fact that prplhz should not have found Navillus scummy in the first place.
This is a competely backwards approach, one because prplhz was clear in his reasoning, and second because townies are defended all the time along the same lines prplhz was using.
Toad is pushing prplhz for the wrong reason, something which scum do all the time. This is not a particularly strong point, but a valid one nonetheless.
Additionally, Toad has been buddying me all game, asking for activity without contributing himself and appealing to dead players. Add in the 4 points of my case, and you have a player who is almost assuredly mafia.
Vote for Toad. In fact, I don't even mind if you vote in the voting thread too, as I'm fairly sure he is scum.
##Vote: Toadesstern
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
actually, it makes more sense to wait on our real votes.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I'm going to respond to you Toad, but only once if I can help it. This is not a debate, and I have no intention of turning this into a back and forth between you and me. My accusation is not for you, it's for the rest of the players in the game. That being said your defense is weak.
+ Show Spoiler +Part 1: I thought Hiropro is a semi-vet. That's why I attacked him for the GF vote because I thought a vet would be smart enough to figure out that it's either RB or framer with all the talk d0 and I thought I caught him lying about why he voted for GF. Furthermore I would have considered a vet who really thinks that GF could be an issue to be more talkactive about what he found out BEFORE the end of deadline. That was basicly it. And yeah it collapsed the moment I was told hiro is not a vet. If you had told me "i wasn't sure it's between RB and Framer and therefore voted GF" I would have voted you as well.
About the confirmed... Give me one game in which I don't talk about confirmed people. That's an exaggeration I can't get rid of. I called VE confirmed mafia in LV and he flipped town lol.
You'll notice in my post I never once referred to the hiropro vs hiroprotagonist issue. That's because it has absolutely nothing to do with the way you acted. It had nothing to do with what you were doing, but rather how you were doing it. You thought hiro was scum, yet you did not attempt to bring up a single other thing from his filter to corroborate that theory. You treated hiro as a misguided townie, but then threw down your vote and called him 'claimed scum'. Despite having a strong scum read, you threw another name into the lynch candidate mix. All your actions at that point were scummy.
It has absolutely nothing to do with whether you thought Hiropro was hiroprotagonist.
+ Show Spoiler +Part 2:
I added WBG to the list because I thought the 24-hour thing IS something weird while the not talking part wasn't considering that half of the players had not started talking at that time
Yet your previous feeling on the 24 hour thing: I'd take the "didn't know about the 24h"-thing much more as an "not caring about the game"-argument than the fact that people are posting so little right now.
mentioned nothing about bugs being scummy. You're also trying to tell me right now that you didn't find his 'not talking' scummy, when you clearly indicated you found it scummy:
Add that to what I mentioned earlier about him (not knowing the d0 cycle was only 24 hours, not posting) and I feel like wbg would be the best vet to lynch into if I can convince you to lynch into a vet
+ Show Spoiler +Part 3:
That's me referring to the deadline. As in "See you tomorrow and in I'll answer that 10 seconds short of the deadline with one big post". Also I got A LOT of criticism for mentioning I'm a n1 target in LV. Go read n1 of that game Rad. I thought I should just keep it neutral this time because people called me disruptive in LV for that reason.
I don't buy this, not for a second. That was you absolutely referring to Day 2, NOT the end of Night 1. It has nothing to do with you mentioning or not if you were a target. It has to do with you being sure that you would live to Day 2.
The rest is not worth responding to.
I strongly believe you to be scum.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 04 2012 08:20 Toadesstern wrote:Ok if I am referring to Day2 show me the big post on d2 I was referring to on d2... Here's a little quote from WBG from LV after I said I'm probably going to die n1: Show nested quote +On May 30 2012 09:48 wherebugsgo wrote:
Shut up Toad you're not worth a mafia bullet. You cause so much disruption regardless of alignment it's no wonder everyone calls you hypnotoad.
We kill gambit man today. He ninja voted ET yesterday and he's said nothing. Eat shit and die, scum.
##vote Gambitx32 and I've got that a lot. I take the neutral stance on wether or not I'm going to die n1 as an improvement because I was told to not talk about it anymore A LOT.
Allow me to remove the irrelevent parts of your post and leave the only relevant bit:
On June 04 2012 08:20 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok if I am referring to Day2 show me the big post on d2 I was referring to on d2...
OK, that's much easier to read. You are trying to tell me that when you said D2, you were actually referring to the end of night 1.... right....
On June 02 2012 10:16 Toadesstern wrote:
got ninja'ed
About sbrubbles: I'll tell you once d2 has started for obvious reasons, sry.
'once day 2 has started'
'once day 2 has started'
'once day 2 has started'
How does 'once day 2 has started', mean 'the end of night 1'.
I know it sucks when you caught in a scum-slip, but take solace in the fact that it was only the icing on the cake. I was leaning strong scum on you before I even found that.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Incorrect. I went into your filter with an open mind, particularly focused on whether you were town or scum. Part of the reason I am good at this game is because I can set things aside and keep and open mind.
My record for finding out your alignment is irrelevant. Please show me the games you were town where I thought you were scum. Keeping in mind that in WoF I specifically stated I was null on you, and leaning scum on sandroba(2 members of a hydra).
Not to mention I am going to get better and better at reading you the more games we play together.
I also specifically noted that my case on you is NOT built on vote analysis, but built upon your actions irrespective of other players alignments.
I hope people have noticed that Toad has moved on from defending himself, to attacking me.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I never proposed a team like that, and I do not propose scum teams as a rule. I always play one scum player at a time.
Not to mention, I stated clearly that I do not think Zephirdd Is scum at this moment. You also never showed me all the games you were town that I thought you were scum. I bring this up because you were trying to discredit my scumhunting based on those games, yet those games do not exist.
Also, as I mentioned before, the issue with your actions regarding Hiropro had nothing to do with whether you thought he was hiroprotagonist. Even if he WAS hiroprotagonist, you actions up to and including the point where you voted him were very inconsistent and scummy. Something you have tried to wash under the bridge by pointing to your later confusion.
On June 04 2012 12:43 slOosh wrote:
I think talis mentioned that I stopped pushing Sbrubbles on the nonsense GF vote, which I think was part of Radfield's case against Toad. I need to refilter this properly tomorrow since I think he acknoweldges his mistake somewhere and a bunch of people who I think are town also think he looks ok so I gotta look again.
What are you referring to? What is Sbrubbles 'nonsense GF vote'?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Also, who said anything about Kurumi being Town....
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Prplhz, my most recent two scum games were Arkham City 2, and Couples Retreat. Lotr was before that.
I really shouldn't have posted that I thought a shot on you was a good idea, and never would have if you hadn't explicitly asked. There were a few things though that were making you think you were scum right then. As I mentioned before, I actually had you written down as PROB TOWN in my notes. Pretty sure it was a combo of a) your vote on navillus after defending him, b) voting majority +1 when the obvious vote was lynch lock(majority +1 would be quite mafia favoured given that we had little focus at the end of day 1) and c) the fact that it seemed you were overconfident Kurumi had no gun.
All that being said, once I filter you again yesterday I felt you were fairly strongly town aligned.
@Sbrubbles, you're right, I misread when filtering. Not sure how that happened.
On June 04 2012 21:13 Kurumi wrote:
I find it funny that the thing that made Radfield's case strong for me is the "see you d2" slip and many people dismiss it as something normal.
Thank you. I agree it is the strongest part, and am a bit baffled that people think townies commonly refer to the end of night 1 as day 2. Or that they state with confidence they will be around on day 2. It simply DOES NOT HAPPEN.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 05 2012 00:23 risk.nuke wrote:
Lets just assume we don't have a medic instead of using that as an excuse to justify scum-kills. If any of you were scum, would you give town a medic? That's like sabotaging for yourself so can we please assume the scum did not sabotage for themself and did not give us a medic.
Radfield, since you've ignored my post. Why do you think they killed wbg?
How did I ignore your post? Which post are you even talking about, please show me.
I'm not really interested in why bugs died. He's a good enough player that him getting shot N1 is fairly irrelevant. He's also the kind of player who has weak D1 reads, and then get startlingly accurate as the game goes on(as long as he doesn't get sidetracked).
I also don't think scum realized medic was the strongest role we could have. On the surface it looks weak, as most medics miss, and it can't confirm townies or catch scum. Especially if they think they were getting roleblocker, then medic might seem like the least of the evils.
I'm against lynching toad today. I don't have a good read on him and I think he will become easier to figure out later.
Your resistance to lynching Toad is noted. Please state specifically which parts of my case you find strong or weak.
Also, who is your alternative, still Zeph based off of WBG's accusations?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
prplhz, you're wrong. Toad is scum, and is scrambling, misrepresenting and lying in an effort to avoid a lynch. He is NOT adequetely explaining his actions, instead he is talking around the issues, and bringing up tangential points instead addressing the true points in my case.
1. I explain how his early actions regarding Hiropro were scummy. Including his demeanor changes, vote and reasoning. Toad answers by talking about the Hiropro vs Hiroprotagonist issue, which had NOTHING TO DO with what I was talking about. It didn't matter WHO he thought he was talking to, because the way he was doing it was inherently scummy.
2. He originally used the 'not talking much' thing as an excuse to call bugs null, and then later added that in to his case on bugs being scummy. Something cannot be null to start, and then with no change become scummy later on when you try to think up reasons to lynch him. Toad completely ignores this part and only talks about the 24 hour thing and how he thought it was weird(not even scummy, yet he lists it as one of his reasons for finding bugs scummy).
3. He defends himself completely inadequately. Anyone who does not see this for a scum slip has not played enough mafia. You DO NOT say 'see you on day 2' when you actually mean 'see you at the end of night 1'. He also tries to stretch it as if I am claiming their is some Day 2 post, when that has nothing to do with what I am talking about. I'm talking about his confidence that he will survive to Day 2.
4. He never actually responds to my issues here.
He is also deliberately stretching the truth or lying. He accused me of 'always thinking he was scum when he was town', but when I pressed him for examples he ignored me. He claims I think my entire case is based on the scum-slip, when I never said anything remotely similar. He claims my case was built out of my voting analysis, when I clearly and deliberately stated that was not the case. He claims I said that 3 of my points were 'weak', when of course I said no such thing.
Toad is deliberately skewing things and trying to misdirect. He is scum.
I also agree that risk.nuke is probably scum too, and see no redeeming features to his play. That being said, I feel Toad is a much larger threat than risk.nuke, as he is far more able to wiggle out of a lynch if I die. risk is going no where however.
Additionally, assuming for a moment that we had an equal read on both Toad and risk, we gain wayyyyy more information from a Toad red flip than a risk red flip. Obviously we don't lynch based on getting info, but that doesn't mean we should disregard it either.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 05 2012 05:30 slOosh wrote:
You seem to be doing the thing that Toad is doing and reading out of context. At the time no one expressed that the scumslip was the most damning aspect of the case.
Actually I did, but it's neither here nor there. I think many people don't realize what a true scum slip is.
I agree 100% with the rest of what you said though. Toad is picking and choosing what he defends, because for many of his actions he has no defense.
Compare that to prplhz's defense from Toad's case, and you will find that prp adequately responded to each point with his thought process and reasoning for actions.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
It's time to start putting votes down for real everyone.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Anyone know how many votes we need for majority?
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Here is an additional reason to vote Toad over risk, albeit and ego-centric one.
If we kill Toad and he flips red, medic(assuming we have one) will pretty much 100% cover me. Then we very likely lynch risk.nuke tomorrow.
If we kill risk and he flips red, medic wonders if maybe Toad is town, and maybe I am scum. Scum shoots me, and Toad argues his way out of a lynch tomorrow because I am not around to push it through.
Toad is very likely scum. risk.nuke is also probably scum(haven't refiltered him lately though, so he may be more or less scummy than I'm thinking). Lynching Toad gives us way more to take away than a risk.nuke lynch. Lynching Toad also pretty much confirms me as Town, as well as likely keeping me alive until the medic dies(blah blah if he exists).
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 05 2012 06:03 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2012 05:53 Kurumi wrote:
Toad, I might get a vote off you if you tell me who should I kill depends on the lynch. If risk flips red you obviously shoot rad.
It's funny because risk and Toad are BOTH probably red 
But yeah, you obviously shoot me.... 
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 05 2012 06:07 prplhz wrote:
Okay lets hammer Toadesstern.
I don't get why you are afraid of dying Radfield and I don't like how you are wobbling on risk.nuke. First "he's very likely scum" and then god damn 5 minutes later you didn't read his filter and you have no idea.
I didn't say I have no idea. In fact, I think risk is probably scum. But I much prefer lynching Toad over risk today.
If somehow Toad flips green and risk flip red, then I guess I look like shit, but I can handle that.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Kitaman, please tell me we get the lynch results now and go into extended night phase.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
errr.... in green text....
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Fuck ya. Sorry Toad, but it had to be done.
We vote Majority +1 tomorrow.
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EPT
