EPTPick Your Poison Mafia - Page 2
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 02 2012 07:02 slOosh wrote: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/eD8O8.png) "e:" denotes that the vote was encrypted before the deadline (I've also checked each one - they are all valid). So the 5 are Kurumi, talismania, Toadesstern, wherebugsgo, Radfield. As I've said before, because its 5 people (more than 3, the number of scum) there is really no telling alignments from this. You could glean slight tells for people's response to the plan itself but I think the Hiro's GF vote garnering enough suspicion for a vote makes no sense and people pushing / supporting that is wickity wack. This reminds me I didn't post my key yet (I was on iphone when day started): + Show Spoiler + DKRUS-UXBZF-RFIEM-QRXCU-BBZWY-UHHNC-EQDLH-WEBAR-FYYCQ-HOKQD-SCOLL-HUKAP | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 02 2012 07:41 Toadesstern wrote: Ok screw this, hiro is not going to happen... need to think and read and vice versa Doesn't he have like 4-5 votes? Unless I'm really reading the rules wrong, majority right now is 6 (Number of players divided by two rounded up) with a supermajority of 7 required to avoid any complications from the secret vote if zephirdd also hits 5. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 02 2012 08:12 Radfield wrote: I'm here toad, and I agree that zephirdd looks like a terrible lynch. Particularly because he basically blueclaimed. Lets let mafia take care of him, there is absolutely no need for us to lynch someone who is bluehinting: Lets just leave him alone. If he is still alive tomorrow with no claim, and still looks scummy, THEN we deal with him. ##Vote: Hiropro I still need to filter him though  ugh this is actually a good point. He made that post before he even had two votes and that line is rather strongly worded. Zephirdd you back yet? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 02 2012 08:09 Toadesstern wrote: Ok we need to get people in here. It's 1 am for me and I don't know how long I'll be awake. A zephird lynch still looks awful for me. Hiros voting him, risk is voting him, navillus is voting him. There's bound to be a mafia within those 3 and Kurumi and talis are nulls for me. That's really not as convincing as people make it look and we have 3 hours left... Do you think risk is scum? You later backed off hiro when you found out he wasn't the hiro you thought he was, and navilus of course flipped town. What do you make of zephirdd's claim? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
I want to prod your mind on the bolded bits below: On May 30 2012 20:01 prplhz wrote: Since the mafia role selection is done in PMs and we're not going to have the voting results or the role itself revealed, scum is free to do whatever. There are only two ways to know for sure what role mafia got and that is 1) to get majority+3 voting for a single role and 2) flip the scum who got the role. talismania's encrypted vote idea should be implemented because it's never going to hurt and it will create some content that we can use for analysis. Regarding the roles: Godfather is the safest because scum can only use it in two ways (have Godfather carry out night kills or not), this will make for the least confusion among potential town blues. Framer is the worst to give them because it will allow scum (and also townies and blues) to question all checks made by cop/tracker. Role blocker is also potentially useful for scum, especially in connection with claims (and counterclaims and fake claims) which I think could become very important this game. Will anybody get told if they are roleblocked? I think it's more beneficial for town to reach majority+3 consensus on a role than it is for mafia that we do it. So I think we should all agree that Godfather is the safest thing we can do because it allows for the least manipulation by scum and the simplest logic always applying for town. The only down side is that potential cop can't always trust town checks but that's very much acceptable. I don't think scum will focus much on the role that they get when they consider the roles that they give us. Can scum pick two of the same role to give to town or do they have to pick two different roles? As for the poison, my thoughts have already been stated. We should try to eliminate poisons that get stronger as early as possible. Majority+1 and secret vote are the best candidates for this. Here are my thoughts (list is malleable): Use first: Majority+1, secret vote, secret ballot Use in the mid game: Mayoral election, lynch lock Use at LYLO or late game: No flip, 24 hour lynch Some people already said that we will be at even number players all game long baring medic saves, but vigilantes could also screw this up. Also, the no flip is not only alignment, it is also role which may suck since we cannot know if we killed the Godfather or just a goon. @Kurumi Could you give us the reason behind your thoughts? I'm particularly interested to hear your thoughts on this part, I think it's more beneficial for town to reach majority+3 consensus on a role than it is for mafia that we do it. and why you thought that was true. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 01 2012 04:55 talismania wrote: Did mafia get voting results in real time or after the deadline? I'm assuming it was after the deadline but if it was real time then I guess my encryption thing was pretty pointless. On June 02 2012 02:15 talismania wrote: This hurts my head - first, Does mafia getting the voting results mean that they got the results of who everyone voted for? Just the totals? Just the winner? Second, if they did get full results, how could that have any bearing on hiro's play? He voted GF before the deadline no matter what, therefore he would have to explain it no matter what. How does he modify that knowing that prp didn't vote? I think there are less convoluted reasons to vote Hiro that people have already raised, if you're going to vote Hiro. (On a sidenote toad I think I owe you an apology because it looks like you were right about the difficulty in getting to a majority day one.) ___________________ @Radfield Of course I would also vote Zephirdd (and probably will unless we need a 6th/7th vote somewhere else - avoiding no lynch is the top priority) - it's not just that he's been vacillating, it's that it feels like he's been doing it to see if anyone he pushes will get momentum in the town. He's playing it pretty out in the open as well (owning up to it with his last "I change my mind too much" post) which is brazen but probably the correct play if he's scum. I'm curious about how you're thinking about the game as a whole - you've also been throwing some names out as though to see what sticks (sloosh, sbrubbles, zephirdd) but I haven't seen anything like the analysis you did to parse apart Blazinghand and tunkeg in I'm a cop you Idiot. For instance, is your consideration of voting zephirdd based on what hiro said, what I said, what you thought yourself, etc? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 03 2012 08:05 prplhz wrote: @talismania Because if town doesn't know what role that scum has then it very much opens up the possibility of scum arguing for whatever role that benefits them (and townies would argue along with them). You got a check? Well watch 1 mafia and 2 townies say that scum probably got framer and framed whoever. I've said this several times already. Also, if we decided that it was more important that scum didn't know what role they got than that we elected some specific role then we would kill a lot of discussion on day0. [...] Hmm ok. The reason I asked was because I feel like you were actually articulating the optimal scum strategy. I was thinking about the hiropro push yesterday and how that was based entirely on the notion that scum would want to vote 1-1-1 to be as safe as possible from any analysis of the way votes were cast. Then I realized that the actual best scum strategy would be to do what you posted - get everyone in town to vote for one role, then blend in among the votes. Furthermore, in that case they would know exactly what roles to give town (you were arguing for godfather at the time - which means you were arguing essentially for town to receive a useless tracker). And there was still plenty of discussion d0. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 03 2012 13:43 Zephirdd wrote: Bntw posting from phone while drunkl. Hooray saturdays. I liedm. I was trying to grab shots in my face. Radfield, idk where you took that -m blue, but ita fun how you instantly bring that I'm not dead. My post at night was a roleblocker/shot magnet. I was not roleblocked so I assume there is a framer out there. toad, you tk a lot abou prp defending naviludd, but how does defending a town makes him scum? akso I want to see more risk posts. He is posting too little imo. I switched my vote for this? Zeph - what exactly did you mean, if anything, when you initially wrote that "pushing me is the worst move atm" thing? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 03 2012 11:13 Radfield wrote: Oh yes, and 1 shot cop should claim obviously. It's possible that this is a decent time for any innocent child to claim, but I'm not sure. There is an optimum time for the IC to claim though, and it's not necessarily only when they are on the ropes. Consider that an IC dying from a nightkill before they have claimed is a completely useless role. The strength comes from us having a confirmed townie for a while, and forcing mafia to shoot in a particular direction(shielding other strong players and the other power role). Tracker should claim if he tracked mafia to a kill or a frame, though ideally you simply push and build a case first, and only claim if necessary. Standard stuff really. If we have an innocent child I disagree with him claiming now (unless he's up for lynch). The optimal time would be when we have the mayoral election (presumably D3) so that we can elect a guaranteed townie. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 04 2012 05:19 Radfield wrote: [...] From my vantage point: Roleblocker Navillus talismania toadesstern radfield risk.nuke prplhz All of a sudden this looks very easy. Even if I am wrong about 2 scum being in the roleblocker camp, I think we can all agree that there is at least one. It's possible I am wrong about prp or talismania, but I doubt it right now. Both their filters look solid. So that means one of risk.nuke or Toad is very very likely scum in my opinion. In fact, it's very possible(even likely) that both are scum. To me right now that scum feels like Toad. As I mentioned I haven't re-filtered him yet, but I've had a slight scum read on him all game. Risk.nuke I'm pretty null right now, but I got an 'ok for now' feeling from his filter. He's not putting in much effort, but he has content despite that. Anyways, that's not a case on Toad by any means, but I wanted to write that out. Back to the grind. Sbrubbles, you mentioned that Hiropro preferred framer to godfather on D0, but I don't see it. Care to help me out? This is almost exactly how I feel. Anyone who is not looking at the game through the lens of the d0 votes needs to do so. There's a couple of assumptions to get to mafia having framer that should be stated though: 1) HiroPro is town. Therefore scum did not vote 1-1-1 and likely voted 2-1-0. A big assumption I suppose but as I wrote d1 I can't imagine that if he were scum his scumbuddies would have let him vote GF. Maybe if he's scum with Risk.nuke, who brought up the 1-1-1 thing but that's the only scenario I can see it in. 2) No one claiming being roleblocked means that mafia don't have a roleblocker - the assumption implicit there is that mafia wouldn't use their roleblocker against themselves, knowing that using it on town would give away how the votes played out. Or maybe they didn't use it at all. Would a mafia roleblocker have to use their power? I'm really iffy on this assumption. It depends on if the scum team was smart enough to realize that using the roleblocker would immediately point to two people on the framer list. I feel like they would be but who knows. So - if there is a framer it's either toad + risk.nuke Radfield + prp I was actually leaning towards toad + radfield earlier because of how buddy-buddy toad acted towards him but now it's clear that is unlikely to be the case, unless they think they need to bus for some reason I guess. Toad and prp can't be together because of the strength of the case toad is making, with the same caveat as with toad and radfield. Radfield + prp is the "conspiracy theory" pair. To make that case you have to assume that radfield freely cast doubt on prp, even agreeing with prp being shot (although come to think of it I guess that if he was scum he would know that town didn't have a vig so scratch that), and then backed down later. To complete the conspiracy theory, add in zephirdd, whom rad and prp acted together to save by getting the navilus train rolling. The main problem I can't get past with this pair is prp's play to outright claim "Oh my vote didn't count, btw" Is that really a super-clever scum excuse? I mean (1) having that idea is borderline genius and (2) actually following through with it is incredibly ballsy. Why risk that when you could just lay low amongst the 6 RB voters? Toad + risk.nuke on the other hand has little to argue against it (there's not much to argue for it either I suppose - toad is as confusing and difficult to understand as he was to me pick your power. Risk-nuke has a lot less thread presence than he did that game but he hasn't really done much yet either). They haven't interacted much with each other. Toad has thrown out a few names, as has risk, but each other's have not come up I don't believe. I don't know who the third would be. I would add zephirdd again because toad said he didn't like the zephirdd lynch d1, but risk.nuke has come out in favor of such a lynch today. One of the other framer voters I guess. If assumption (2) above is wrong and it's 1-2-0 and there is a roleblocker and not a framer, then it's some pair out of sbrubbles, kurumi, zephirdd, and sloosh Which means it's unlikely to be sloosh and sbrubbles because of sloosh's hard pressure at the end of day one (unless that was just really forward-thinking play or something. It is interesting that sloosh hasn't continued to press sbrubbles day two. Acually a quick filter check shows that he's away this weekend so that explains that.). It's also unlikely to be kurumi and zephirdd because of kurumi's stance toward zephirdd. Any combination of the others is possible in my eyes. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 04 2012 07:27 Toadesstern wrote: 1) You say you don't believe in the 1-1-1 unless risk is mafia. Later you say you think it's me + Risk ? 2) Prplhz's vote can be used for 1-1-1 as well, you considered him the alternative yet you say it has to be 2-1 either way? 3) You say my case on Prplhz is strong and therefore doubt I'd be bussing him bud at the same time doubt Rad would bus me? What's the difference that makes you think one is possible and the other one is not? 4) Prplhz playing using the "invalid vote" thing. You played PYP as well? You saw sent "counterclaim" risk & marv as mafia? You saw barundar counterclaim the medic as SK ? I'd say at least equally ballsy and as mentioned the reason I don't consider that an argument anymore lol 5) I am as confusing as in PYP? What did I flip in PYP again? 6) Yeah the third in that "mafiateam" (I'm making it in " " tags because I'm not mafia...) would be Zephirdd. Because frankly Zephirdd and I like each other so much. As seen when I did the case on prplhz. 1) if it's 1-1-1 then I doubt you're scum because of how involved you were in the d0 discussion and because you pushed hiropro so hard yesterday. So yes, if it's 1-1-1 I think risk.nuke could certainly be involved. But I don't buy that it is 1-1-1. 2) obviously anyone's vote can be used for 1-1-1 if it is that way, but again I don't think it is. 3) I say that you are making a strong case on prp and are therefore unlikely to be mafia with him. I say that radfield is making a case on you and is therefore unlikely to be mafia with you. Both are the same to me - I think you misread. 4) of course prp doing that is possible. Hence the paranoia of playing mafia, "the educated guessing game of epic proportions" or whatever tl calls it. I'm not ruling prp out by any means but at some point you have to favor the simplest explanation. 5) true, which is why I put that bit in the "there's not much arguing for toad and risk" section. 6) the third could be anyone in any of these scenarios really but you're right in that I hadn't really considered your interactions with zephirdd today relative to yesterday. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 04 2012 07:45 talismania wrote: 1) if it's 1-1-1 then I doubt you're scum because of how involved you were in the d0 discussion and because you pushed hiropro so hard yesterday. So yes, if it's 1-1-1 I think risk.nuke could certainly be involved. But I don't buy that it is 1-1-1. 2) obviously anyone's vote can be used for 1-1-1 if it is that way, but again I don't think it is. 3) I say that you are making a strong case on prp and are therefore unlikely to be mafia with him. I say that radfield is making a case on you and is therefore unlikely to be mafia with you. Both are the same to me - I think you misread. 4) of course prp doing that is possible. Hence the paranoia of playing mafia, "the educated guessing game of epic proportions" or whatever tl calls it. I'm not ruling prp out by any means but at some point you have to favor the simplest explanation. 5) true, which is why I put that bit in the "there's not much arguing for toad and risk" section. 6) the third could be anyone in any of these scenarios really but you're right in that I hadn't really considered your interactions with zephirdd today relative to yesterday. Actually, another point in light of the case rad just posted: why did you reply so defensively to my post at all? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 04 2012 09:20 Radfield wrote: [...] I hope people have noticed that Toad has moved on from defending himself, to attacking me. Actually I think it's more telling that toad HASN'T been attacking radfield. I mean, he's attacked rad's scumhunting abilities, but he hasn't said that he thinks rad is scum, or that rad is pushing a scum agenda, nor does it even seem like he has considered it. That's strange as hell if he's town. toad, what do you think Rad's alignment is? Why? You think prp is scum. Who do you think the other two are? | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
Maybe it's because I'm tunneled a bit on toad but I do find it interesting though that as soon as he was coming under a lot of pressure the risk.nuke thing just popped up. There were a couple posts a few pages back that were like "yeah toad is scummy but let's lynch risk!" | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 05 2012 06:15 prplhz wrote: talismania with the god damn ninja vote right there. After I say I'm going to hammer Toadesstern but without posting in the thread and while pushing risk.nuke. I actually thought it was weird you hadn't hammered him yet when I read that and went to the voting thread. I refreshed a couple of times and then figured I ought to do it myself. | ||
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
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talismania
United States2364 Posts
On June 03 2012 06:03 talismania wrote: toad Do you think risk is scum? You later backed off hiro when you found out he wasn't the hiro you thought he was, and navilus of course flipped town. What do you make of zephirdd's claim? Which suggests to me that he did not feel like talking about risk.nuke (or zephirdd - or both) if he didn't have to. He replied vociferously to everyone else that asked him a question, and even posts that just mentioned him so I doubt he just missed it. | ||
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