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+ Show Spoiler +On June 02 2012 08:15 Xatalos wrote:
I'm also concerned about those who stayed out of the spotlight as we went closer to the deadline, such as Eishi_Ki, Miltonkram, sciberbia and Superouman. I want to hear your explanations for avoiding (or mostly avoiding) the most important event in the game so far, and I want some substance to make up for it.
@Xatalos
I disagree that I avoided the thread. If you really want to know, here is how my day went:
+ Show Spoiler +
- I woke up about 5 hours before the deadline.
- I spent about 2 hours reading the thread and making some posts.
- I was AFK for about two hours.
- I returned with less than an hour left. I made a post and followed the thread until the deadline.
About not being in the spotlight
+ Show Spoiler +
By nature, I'm not aggressive, emotional, or overly sure of myself, so I may not have been as "in the spotlight" as other players such as Vivax, Ange, Unforgiven. But, I think I contributed all my relevant opinions to the discussion and tried to steer us on the right track. Not sure what else you really wanted from me.
In response to your demand for substance to atone for my 2 hours AFK, I think I've been providing substance all game, and I intend to continue to do so.
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I'm off to bed. Probably won't post again for at least 10 hours. I'm about halfway through rereading the thread and plan to finish before the deadline tomorrow. Night.
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I've read through everyone's filters and updated my reads on everyone. I think that there is some chance I die tonight, so I've got some stuff I wanna say now.
My reads
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Here are my top 2 reads:
I find heist scummy
I find golden/shiaopi suspicious
I still think Cattivik is probably townie
If I'm alive tomorrow, I'll be more than happy to expand on these.
If I'm dead tomorrow, I request that you put at least some weight on my reads, but don't live and die by them.
Thoughts on blues
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@Town
If, at any point in the game, you are saved by a medic (you will be notified via PM), it makes most sense to just claim this instantly. The mafia already know this (because their target isn't dead), so you might as well just give the town the same information. This confirms you as townie because it'd be a terrible idea to fakeclaim this as mafia.
@Cop
If we have a cop, you know for a fact that we have a medic. If you get a guilty check, you should try to get the mafia lynched without claiming. But if that doesn't work, just claim. You might want to claim before then if you think you are likely to be hit by mafia, just so you get medic protection. I think it also makes a lot of sense to claim once you have 2 safe checks that are still alive, but it's a judgement call. You might also consider coming out if we are about to mislynch a known townie.
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I'm dedicating this post to analyze the death of s0Lstice
I expect you all to be quite skeptical of NK analysis (as you should be), but I think it's worth at least 1 post.
What are mafia objectives in a NK?
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1) not hit the same person that the medic chooses to save
2) hit blues
3) hit townies that everyone has a strong town-read on
4) hit good townies
5) hit townies that are on the right track
How does the choice of s0lstice fit in with these objectives?
+ Show Spoiler +
1) was not a likely medic save in my opinion
2) was not especially likely to be blue
3) I'd estimate him at #3 least likely to ever be lynched
4) I think s0lstice demonstrated he was a pretty good townie
5) We should look at his filter
Overall, I think s0lstice was a pretty smart hit and had good reason to die regardless of how good his reads were. So I don't want to put too much weight on them. However, it seems foolish not to at least look at his filter.
s0lstice's reads
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I don't think that these reads are that relevant because they were popular opinions
- He didn't want to lynch ange
- He pretty strongly read me as town
- He wasn't a big fan of unforgiven
Some of his more controversial reads:
1) His very strong accusation of heist
2) He defended cattivik quite strongly
3) Was rather suspicious of miltonkram
You may call it WIFOM, but I feel that s0lstice wouldn't have died if too many of his reads were wrong. If you're willing to assume he was right on at least two of three, you can conclude that Cattivik is town. Now, this is no small assumption, but I think it's slight evidence in Cattivik's favor. It also makes me slightly more suspicious of miltonkram. It doesn't really change my opinion on heist because that one seems like pure WIFOM.
It's obviously nothing definitive, but I think we'll be able to make more sense of this kill once we see a few more flips, so don't forget about it.
Well this analysis admittedly didn't turn out to be as fruitful as I had expected but I still think it's worth posting. RIP s0Lstice.
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This will be my post about heist
I'd honestly be really surprised if heist isn't mafia. Read s0lstice's case on him - it's pretty good. I've read through heist's filter and found a lot of stuff that seems scummy to me. I'm just going to highlight some previous points I find particulary damning as well as add a couple of pieces of evidence.
Circumstancial evidence surrounding suki's first post
+ Show Spoiler +Recall this part of my accusation of suki + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 11:18 sciberbia wrote:
Finally, I can think of one really good explanation as to why he realized his mistake: He might have gone back to the mafia QT where his scumbuddies set him straight. Just a theory. But I'd like to hear suki explain how he realized that he had misinterpreted the rules.
suki never did explain this post, made 9 minutes after his original: + Show Spoiler +On May 31 2012 12:43 suki wrote:
Oh wait, this is kind of important to my reasoning.
Are you allowed to change your vote after you make it?
I dont see any explicit answer in the rules. I assume you can't since we're not able to edit our posts, but just to make sure... Well, suki turned out to be mafia, which makes my mafia QT theory seem a little less wild. What does this have to do with heist? His response, 4 minutes later: On May 31 2012 12:47 heist wrote:
You CAN change your vote. You aren't allowed to edit posts, but you can change your vote in new ones. So, not only do we know heist was online, but he even corrected suki in the thread. I feel like my mafia QT theory was pretty spot on. In case it's not clear, here is what I'm saying probably happened: + Show Spoiler +
suki: hi guys. im roleblocker. sorry im late
heist: suki you should make a post b4 you get accused of lurking
*suki makes post*
This takes 9 minutes:
suki: okay I just made a pretty big first post
*heist skims it*
heist: why do you make such a big deal out of that vote?
suki: what do you mean?
heist: you realize he'll probably just unvote right?
suki: oh shit. you can unvote?
heist: yea. It's ok: you're just noob. nobody will care.
suki: well should i correct myself?
heist: Just ask if you can unvote. Then I'll answer it.
This takes 4 minutes:
suki: k. just did
heist: ok I answered it. Nobody will ever suspect anything.
Perhaps not conclusive by itself. But I'm pretty sure this is what happened given heist's later scummy behavior. See below.
Heist's comments on suki
+ Show Spoiler +Pay attention to the timestamps On June 02 2012 05:37 heist wrote:
I am not completely convinced about Suki...
On June 02 2012 06:05 heist wrote:
Ange77 and Suki both read town to me, although if they are the majority, I am siding toward a Suki lynch. On June 02 2012 06:17 heist wrote:
If it's blatantly rediculous, DO NOT DO IT. You are almost confident suki is town, why are you placing your vote on him??? We still have a bit of time, closer to an hour. Now it just looks like you are bussing. On June 02 2012 06:37 heist wrote:
I changed bacause I was not very condifent in either a Suki or Ange77 lynch and my Superouman lynch was useless. You agree that Unforgiven seems more scummy. I don't like how you are giving up to commit to a worse read. On June 02 2012 06:43 heist wrote:
BTW, a NL is possibly the worst thing that can happen right now. I promised I would change my vote, and I''ll do so if it comes down to it because I'm almost convinced Ange77 is town, much more so than Suki who has been absent. On June 02 2012 06:55 heist wrote: I don't in good conscience vote for people I don't think is mafia unless absoultely necessary like right now. In summary - he is first "not completely convinced" - now suki reads town to him - now it looks like vivax is bussing suki - now he's not very confident in a suki lynch - he's much more convinced ange is town than suki - he didn't think suki is mafia the "not completely convinced" and the bussing comments scream scum to me. Cattivik called Heist out on the bussing comment early in N1 and heist failed to address it in his defense. Xatalos also finds this scummy.
suki's comments on heist
+ Show Spoiler +
heist's latest slip
+ Show Spoiler +I just picked up on this slip that I might not otherwise think much of. But on top of the already mounting evidence, it just makes too much sense. On June 03 2012 09:53 heist wrote:
That is the crux of my argument. He (Vivax) spends day 1 aggressively defending someone who he can't possibly know for sure is town, and provides very little actual substance for a lynch. Heist has "thought" Cattivik is mafia the whole game. The "crux" of heist's argument is that cattivik spends day 1 aggressively defending someone "who he can't possibly know for sure is town". If Heist actually thinks Cattivik is mafia, then in Heist's brain, Cattivik does know who is townie and who isn't. If on the other hand, Heist knows for a fact that Cattivik is town, Heist knows that Cattivik doesn't actually know for a fact that I'm townie. I'm pretty sure that heist has been attacking cattivik for confusing townie play the entire time. Heist knows it's easy to attack a townie for confusing townie play - it happens all the time. So, in heist's brain, he is trying to convince everyone that Cattivik is bad townie. But here he slips in revealing that he doesn't actually think cattivik is mafia - just bad townie. Not sure I explained this very well but I think it makes sense. Basically, I have a town-read on Cattivik and a scumread on Heist, and this little slip reinforces that notion. I'm actually interested to hear if anyone agrees with this analysis.
Does anyone actually think heist is townie?
I am aware that ShiaoPi has a town-read on him, but does anyone else? And ShiaoPi, would you please detail why you think he is townie?
##Vote heist
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@heist
Perhaps I should have been more clear. The points in my post are not the only things I find suspicious about your filter. I'm just not going to repeat and rehash a lot of the stuff s0Lstice said earlier. I just added 3 new pieces of circumstantial evidence as well as emphasized a part of everyone else's arguments that I find particularly damning.
Of course it's possible that you are townie. I'm not going to be able to definitively prove to you that you must be mafia. Honestly, if I am wrong about you, which I concede is a possibility, you've been the victim of an extremely unlucky set of circumstances (such as not knowing the meaning of "bussing"). What's more likely than an unlikely set of circumstances? That you are mafia. This is why I am voting you.
Arguing with somebody's defense usually isn't very productive because you'll never be able to convince them that they're mafia (obviously). Nevertheless, I feel obliged to explain my points because you seem rather ticked off about them.
+ Show Spoiler +
1. Yes I agree it's pure speculation. But mafia is all about speculation. I speculated that suki was corrected by a fellow mafia in the mafia QT. This seems rather likely to me now, especially considering that suki didn't acknowledge my question. You seem to be a likely candidate for the person that corrected him, given that you were online at the time, and posting in the thread 4 minutes later. So, this is some circumstantial evidence for you being mafia.
2. To me, "not completely convinced" by an argument says that you think there is some credence to it, but you're not completely sure. Otherwise you would just say "not convinced" or even say it's a bad argument. Saying "not completely convinced" is the sort of wishy/washy thing typical of scum players trying to defend their buddies.
The standard definition of bussing is a mafia accusing another mafia. So by saying that you think cattivik is bussing suki, you were saying that you thought both were scum. I suppose it's possible that you actually don't know the definition, but this has to be counted as evidence against you.
3. Scum, especially newbie scum, tend not to address their scumbuddies as much as would be natural. It's further (admittedly not the best) evidence against you. I understand it's frustrating that you can't actually say anything to explain his lack of posts concerning you, but this doesn't mean it's not evidence.
4. In reference to Vivax, you said that I am "someone who he can't possibly know is town." If Vivax were mafia, he would know that I am town. So you inadvertently implied that Vivax is townie. I admit it's a bit nit-picky but I could see why a mafia heist would likely make that mistake. Of course, it is possible that a town heist would also make that mistake, but it's just another piece of evidence, not the entire basis of my argument. I probably did not explain this point very well and I'm interested to see if anyone agrees with me on it.
I'm going to sleep. Won't be posting for at least 8 hours.
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Welcome austinmcc! Thanks for playing Ange777.
Here is my brief opinion on several players.
heist: everything points to him being mafia. my hands-down top choice for today
vivax: I'm going to review his case but I still think he's probably town
Xatalos: not interested in lynching him today
miltonkram: I've been conflicted about him all game long.. still not sure what to think
golden/shiaopi: Suspicious. Did nobody notice golden's really scummy defense of suki after my initial accusation?
Realistically, who are we going to lynch today? It looks like it will be between heist and vivax. I think heist is the far better choice. I'll review both cases and post more of my reasoning.
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I think there is an excellent chance heist is mafia and I'm still convinced he is our best lynch today. But with miltonkram and shiaopi preferring vivax, and even xatalos now having his doubts, it looks like we will once again have a hard time reaching a consensus. We still need to hear from unforgiven, austinmcc, superouman, and eishi_ki.
I'm going to try to convince you guys to vote for heist. In this post, I'm going to list evidence against heist, in approximate order from most substancial to least substancial. I'm going to repeat myself/s0Lstice a bit.
heist's scummy defense of suki
+ Show Spoiler +
I highlighted this in my last post. Whereas Xatalos and (to a lesser extent) Vivax took a consistent stance in their defense of suki, heist was hesitant to committ to defending suki, and then claims that vivax is bussing suki.
Notice how he is kind of all over the place
1) "I am not completely convinced about suki"
2) "Suki reads town to me"
3) "Now it just looks like you (Vivax) are bussing (Suki)"
4) "Not very confident in a suki lynch"
5) "I don't think suki is mafia"
I have no problem with comments 2 or 5. They are consistent and say that heist has a town read on suki. But comments 1 and 4 are scummy to me. He's trying to dissuade us from voting suki, but is vague about his opinion with the modifiers on "convinced" and "confident". And comment 3 is implying that heist thinks suki has a good chance of being mafia.
willingness to throw suspicion on anyone but suki
+ Show Spoiler +
suki was the only person heist was actually defensive of leading up to the lynch:
vivax: heist accuses strongly and threatens to vote. Doesn't because he realizes a lynch on vivax isn't going to happen
superouman: heist tries to raise suspicion on superouman and votes him
unforgiven: jumps on unforgiven about an hour and a half before the deadline and pushes to get him lynched
ange777: now heist didn't actually accuse ange, but he didn't really try to convince people not to vote her. He doesn't actually defend her until an hour before the deadline, when it was obvious she was not going to be lynched. While true that he didn't jump on the bandwaggon, this is probably just because he was hoping she'd get lynched without his support, making him look more townie. One known scum (suki) already jumped on her bandwaggon.
I'm willing to excuse a bad read on suki, but not if suki is the only person he's defensive of. Townies should have some town-reads that they are willing to fight for.
Compare this to some people I think are town.
Personally, I was defensive of cattivik, unforgiven, and superouman. I also played a part in slowing the bandwagon on ange.
Ange was at first defensive on unforgiven, then FOS'd him. She also wasn't a fan of vivax, but she did defend superouman and herself.
Xatalos made a bad read on suki, but he was at least willing to defend other players that he thought were town. He retracted his suspicions on unforgiven, only later reverting to unforgiven when it was clear that it was between unforgiven and suki. He was also slightly defensive of superouman and was willing to back off ange.
pretty mafia-like in his scumhunting
+ Show Spoiler +Heist's scumhunting is what I'd expect mafia "scumhunting" to look like. It's usually easiest for mafia to attack players that make controversial/confusing townie plays. Heist did this with gusto thrice - on Vivax, superouman., and unforgiven Pretty easy people to attack and indeed were all popular objects of criticism. Heist harped on superouman's wtf-vote twice. It's something very easy to be critical of, but I think most of us read this as disinterested townie - not mafia. Even on these three, he doesn't commit to attacking them. In his first post on Vivax, he calls Vivax's post "borderline scummy". He also says superouman is "rapidly rising in his suspicions." And early on, he was "not really convinced on unforgiven". This talk on unforgiven is especially suspicious + Show Spoiler +On June 01 2012 01:21 heist wrote:
@Unforgiven_ve: As you play more, you'll come to see that we all have really high standards for worthwhile and quality posts. Generalities tend to be low on that list. It doesn't help us decipher alignments and is really easy to hide behind as scum precisely because it is so comfortable. What we value our your opinions and evaluations of other players. Your reads and who you end up supporting is crucial in the later stages. That said, you fall short. You do have to change something about your posting. I'll reserve judgment until I see some subsequent posts that aren't purely devoted to your defense. Yes, someone accuses you, you need to defend yourself. But offer more than simply that. I've looked over Xatalos' initial accusation and the subsequent accusation from Solstice and can definitely see where they are coming from. Your posts definitely can be read as wanting to cruise, stay relatively unnoticed, and taking the comfortable route to maintaining activity. And for a day 1 lynch, that's sometimes all you need ESPECIALLY if further posts don't attempt to fix any of this. He basically says that a good argument could be made for Unforgiven being scummy, but doesn't committ himself to it. Again, this is all what I'd expect from a mafia trying to "scumhunt".
His extreme reluctance to let people trust me
+ Show Spoiler +
What really sucks for mafia? When active townies begin to trust each other. Mafia would like to prevent active townies from being trusted by everyone. Suki and heist both harped on how I couldn't be a confirmed townie.
Most people took the following stance: "I'm pretty sure sciberbia is town. Still, he's not a confirmed townie."
Heist only had a "mostly town" reading of me, and spent a lot of time detailing how I could be a mafia and shouldn't be a "confirmed townie". He even suggested the possibility that both me and cattivik were mafia. Maybe I'm biased, but it seems to me that heist and suki were less willing than everyone else to believe that I am town. It's another example of heist not willing to be defensive of anybody (except suki). Typical mafia behavior
the kill of s0Lstice
+ Show Spoiler +
The NK of s0Lstice makes a lot of sense if heist is mafia and vivax is not. Doesn't make so much sense if cattivik is mafia and vivax is not.
Heist looks much scummier than either Vivax or Xatalos to me, mostly because of the first two points. I'll probably make a small post explaining why I still think Vivax is townie.
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Actually, I'm really tired and going to sleep. Basically, I agree that Vivax's play is strange. However, it is strange whether or not he is mafia. You'd have to convince me it is strange scummy play rather than strange townie play and I remain unconvinced. I was hoping to be able to elaborate more, but I'm quite busy tomorrow and may not get the chance. Please read over all the material on heist and you will hopefully come to the same conclusion that I have. Night all.
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Sorry guys, but I'm really busy today.
Where I stand:
I strongly prefer a lynch of heist to a lynch of vivax. I urge you all to look at the case on heist and consider voting heist if you find him scummier than vivax. I will check back into the thread shortly before the deadline, and I'll change my vote if and only if it is needed to prevent NL. Other than that, I can't really contribute in the next 5 hours. I'll catch up with the thread after the deadline. Again, sorry.
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Well, it looks like Vivax is being lynched. I hope you guys were right about him, but I have a bad feeling about this one.
@ShiaoPi
you think he will flip town now?
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@shiaopi
Can you please clarify your stance on vivax? His voting for himself has convinced you that he's probably town?
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@Vivax
I assume you would have told us already if you were cop, but if you are now would be a great time to tell us your N1 check.
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At this point, I'd be shocked if Vivax is mafia. I'll just be happy if superouman isn't blue
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gg vivax...
While this certainly does suck, mislynches happen in nearly every game, and we should all bear some responsibility. I regret not finding the time to post in his defense. I spent my time trying to convince you guys that heist is scummy rather than that vivax is townie, and that didn't work out so well.
Anyway, we now stand at 6 townies vs 2 mafia. Today's events hurt, but honestly I think we still have a good chance to win, especially if we have blues.
I was expecting both of these flips, so they don't really change my stance on anything. I'm just waiting to hear how they'll affect the opinions of people who voted for vivax.
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On June 06 2012 02:35 austinmcc wrote:
What in particular. What portions of what posts, specifically?
@austinmcc
Does it really matter? What's done is done. Unless you are interested in lynching Unfogiven, I don't really see the point in talking about this now. We can discuss it after the game.
On June 06 2012 02:32 ShiaoPi wrote:
So your main argument against me is an action, which I did not even make...Make of it what you want, but I would not take another players actions as part of an analysis against a replacement.
@shiaopi
I understand that it seems unfair, but golden's alignment is guaranteed the same as your alignment, so it's perfectly logical to draw evidence against you from things golden said. Just as it's logical to think austinmcc is townie based mostly on the actions of ange777. Just because it's out of your control doesn't make it not evidence.
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I think it's likely I die tonight, so here are my (possible) last words
+ Show Spoiler +
I understand you weren't all convinced about heist based on my arguments yesterday, but hopefully seeing the flips of Vivax, superouman and (possibly) me, you'll now be willing to lynch him. I don't really have anything new to say about him; just reread my filter. No amount of defense will convince me he's not mafia.
Given that heist flips red, I think shiaopi is very likely the last mafia and I'd request that you lynch him. Here are some points against him:
- golden's behavior toward me in the beginning was suspicious. He said that he wasn't really expecting a bandwagon to form, but he seemed really ready & willing to cast a vote on me if my defense wasn't good.
- golden said he'd be willing to lynch 4 people, all of which I think are town
- golden's defense of suki was really scummy
- shiaopi is defensive of heist, who I'm pretty sure is mafia
- shiaopi's stance on vivax went from "maybe there is a slight chance of him being a bad townie" to "wtf no idea" pretty quickly
If heist/shiaopi are not both mafia, I'm not really sure who is. I'm leaning at least slightly town on eveybody else, but I'd probably go with either miltonkram or eishi_ki.
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NOOOOOOOOOOOO
I'm so upset about this. gg xatalos and mafia
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EPT
