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Forum Index > TL Mafia
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sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 29 2012 19:30 GMT
#50
/in 2nd game
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 30 2012 22:20 GMT
#83
Good morning all! I'm really looking forward to this game. I've been thinking about what to put in my first post, and I decided on the following sections. I wrote up this post in the hour since my role PM, if you're wondering how I typed so fast. Please excuse the length: this is my first post and I just wanted to get some info in my filter as well as introduce myself to everyone and start some discussion.

about me+ Show Spoiler +

I absolutely love playing mafia irl, and I recently played my first forum game: Newbie Mini XIV. I enjoyed the game, and I'm looking forward to playing again with Golden, s0sltice, and Miltonkram. I encourage you all to skim our filters from that game so you have a basis for comparison. Only Miltonkram was mafia.


what you can expect from me+ Show Spoiler +

Mainly because I love playing so much, I will consistently be checking and reading the thread and I'll probably be one of the more active posters. I'll maintain my own list of scumreads and make public cases against my top targets. I'll also help in any way I can to organize lynches when deadlines roll around.


what i ask of you guys+ Show Spoiler +

1) make reading the thread a priority
2) periodically post your opinions and contribute to the discussion
3) try really hard to be online in the hours before a deadline. We need to organize majority lynches and it's not easy if a lot of people are offline.


to lynch or not to lynch?+ Show Spoiler +

Setup A: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 1 cop, 1 medic, 7 VT's
Setup B: 1 roleblocker, 2 goons, 9 VT's
Setup C: 3 goons, 1 medic, 8 VT's
Setup D: 3 goons, 1 cop, 8 VT's

I think that there is actually a strong case for not lynching on day 1 in this game. In the setups without a medic, namely B and D, I am pretty sure that not lynching on day 1 is strictly optimal. I think that lynch vs NL is a wash for setup C, and I'm undecided about setup A - that one's pretty complicated.

If anybody would like to hear more of my reasoning, just ask and I'll be happy to provide.

Fun fact: Depending on how wisely we spend our NL, we have between 13% and 17% chance of winning setup B assuming random lynches. So we need some really solid scumreads regardless of how strategically we play.


what I think we should focus on right now+ Show Spoiler +

The most important thing for us to do is find scum. However, it seems foolish to scumhunt before the majority of players have even looked at the thread. So I think our biggest goal for the first 12 hours or so is to generate discussion. Then, we turn our attention to scumhunting. Here are two things that everyone can comment on:

1) Lynch or NL?
2) Should we lynch inactive players or let them get replaced?

Will all inactive players be replaced or is there a possibility that they just die? If a blue inactive player is modkilled, will their role be transferred to someone else? What if they are mafia?
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 30 2012 23:04 GMT
#93
@s0sltice
Gladly. Good to see you and golden again and posting already. I expected you all to be skeptical because it is usually better to lynch. Let me explain my reasoning for setup B (all vanilla) and hopefully you will see how the logic easily extends to setup D (with a cop).

It is generally accepted that with 3 VT's and 1 goon remaining, the best option is to NL. This increases the town win percentage from 25% to 33%. It's a similar principle that encourages NL'ing in any vanilla setup with an even number of players. I am pretty sure about my reasoning on this setup.

if we delay the NL + Show Spoiler +

D1: 12 remaining lynch #1
D2: 10 remaining lynch #2
D3: 8 remaining lynch #3
D4: 6 remaining lynch #4
D5: 4 remaining NL
D6: 3 remaining lynch #5


if we NL D1 + Show Spoiler +

D1: 12 remaining NL
D2: 11 remaining lynch #1
D3: 9 remaining lynch #2
D4: 7 remaining lynch #3
D5: 5 remaining lynch #4
D6: 3 remaining lynch #5


Either way, we have exactly 5 lynches to nail exactly 3 mafia. But in the ladder case, we have a marginally higher probability of success on each lynch. This is for two reasons:
1) the mafia were kind enough to kill off a townie, so now it's 3/11 instead of 3/12 etc
2) we actually have MORE information on each lynch. we get to see an extra kill. If we have a cop, he got to make an extra check.

Try not to look at it as where we are tomorrow vs where we are today. Consider that we always have 5 lynches for 6 days, but we get to choose which day to NL on.

This is the basis of my argument. Assuming setup B (all vanilla), I think it can never hurt to NL on day 1. Do you see a flaw in my logic? I think that it might be even more beneficial in setup D to get our cop more checks. The setups with a medic are less clear because we could be blessed with a medic save. I'm not 100% sure we should NL but I think there is certainly a case to be made, so I'm making it. I hope you guys can confirm/refute my logic.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 30 2012 23:14 GMT
#94
On May 31 2012 07:48 Cattivik wrote:
Also, Sciberbia, the blue font is reserved for the mods.


oops really sorry about that Toadesstern. For some reason I was thinking blue was question font instead of green.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 31 2012 00:49 GMT
#101
Response to criticism of my NL idea:
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote:
@ sciberbia
Your logic depends on us mislynching every single night. Every time we make a correct lynch, it throws off the numbers and gives the town more time to work with.

My logic does NOT depend on us mislynching in any way, shape, or form. I'm just saying we get 5 lynches either way, and that by NL'ing D1 we get the most information possible prior to each lynch. It's just math.

On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote:
If and when the situation arises when a no lynch is beneficial, the case can and should be made. It is likely that such a situation will never occur however.

On the contrary, it is very likely when we start with an even number of players. If we get down to 4 (very likely if we never NL), we should certainly NL. I think we can all agree on that.

On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote:
In short, no-lynch D1 is really bad, it gives us no information to work on.

This applies to heist's criticism too.

A day 1 NL gives us MORE information to work off for our first lynch. Think about it. If we lynch day 1, we have 48 hours worth of discussion to go on for our first lynch. If we NL day 1, we have 120 hours of discussion and a round of night actions to consider for our first lynch. And we end up with 5 lynches either way: it doesn't cost us a lynch (assuming no medic saves).

I agree with heist that the results of lynches factor into future lynches. But this is irrelevant to the issue of a day 1 NL. We still have 5 lynches. We can still consider the results of a previous lynch when we are making our second lynch etc. I feel like I'm just repeating myself now.

On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote:
your discussion of a no-lynch does not make sense to me if you really have the best interests of the town at heart.


I think your accusation of me is rather hasty. My discussion does have the best interests of town at heart. The point of the discussion was two-fold
1) Try to convince you guys of a superior line of play
2) Give people something to talk about in their first posts

While I was not wildly successful in my first goal, you cannot deny that I have succeeded in the second. If you look at the thread since the daypost, the lynch vs nolynch question has certainly gotten people posting. We need posts to generate scumreads. We need scumreads to lynch scum, which is the primary goal here.




On May 31 2012 08:40 Miltonkram wrote:
As far as the rest of the town is concerned, get these discussions on policy out of the way quickly. The sooner we start scumhunting the better.

I stand by everything I've said, and I still currently feel that NL is slightly superior to lynching on day 1 (by maybe 3%). However, I'm getting the feeling that I could write a 10-page paper full of proofs and diagrams and I wouldn't convince anybody, so I'm willing to drop the subject if that's what you want. It has already generated some discussion, which was the primary goal.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 31 2012 16:45 GMT
#165
Just woke up. I'm quite happy about the amount of activity in the last 12 hours. I'll be reading the thread and posting my thoughts within the next couple hours.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 31 2012 20:25 GMT
#176
OK I've read through the thread, made some pretty extensive notes on everybody, and formed my own scumreads. I've got a lot to say after not posting for so long, so I'll spoiler everything.

On Cattivik
+ Show Spoiler +

I'm providing my opinions of cattivik for two reasons:
1) He has been accused by enough people now (heist, golden, eishi_ki, suki, miltonkram) that he is in danger of being lynched today
2) heist explicitly asked for my opinion on cattivik

I think Cattivik is most likely townie

The fishiest thing about him seems to be his insistance that I am a 'confirmed townie'. Let's go through the scenarios here from your guys' persperctive. What seems most likely?
1) Cattivik is mafia. I am town. He goes way out of his way to defend me to gain an ally.
2) Cattivik is mafia. I am mafia. He defends me to the death.
3) Cattivik is town. I am town/mafia. He has a strong town-read on me and isn't afraid to share it.

Now I know for a fact that I am town, so I can rule out scenario 2. But I think even you guys should be able to conclude that scenario 3 is most likely. Both scenarios 1 & 2 seem like really bizarre, risky mafia play. Mafia can suck up to active townies and/or defend fellow mafia without being so blatantly obvious about it. Scenario 3 seems like typical brazen townie play. He is also very agressive and seems confident. Townie characteristics.

One last thing in his favor: Judging from his early posts I didn't get the feeling that he really understood my NL logic. If he were a mafia defending a townie, I think he'd at least want to have a solid grasp on what I was saying.

Now I'm not going to say he's a 'confirmed townie' but I think he is most likely town, and I would not vote for him given current evidence.

On a related topic, unless you think someone is in danger of being mislynched, please try to avoid talking about how townie you think they are. If we all agree player X is town, and we are right, we just gave mafia a really easy kill for the night.

One last thing. Did Cattivik really just change his name to Vivax? Seriously?


On Unforgiven
+ Show Spoiler +

Xalatos, s0sltice, golden, suki, and miltonkram(?) all find him suspicious. I'm not sold on the case against him. He has promised a defense and I don't want to do all his defending for him so I will try to be brief.

Firstly, I disagree with Xalatos and heist that he only made safe generalizations in his first few posts. I see where you are coming from because he hasn't actually made any reads yet, but he did say a couple of odd things that have earned him some flak, such as his suggestion not to use past games as a guide and his idea about a 'town leader'.

His triple post within the span of 14 minutes caught my attention. I think that scum generally take longer to construct posts for several reasons: being nervous about making a slip, making sure it sounds townie, running it by their scumbuddies, etc. Especially on his first posts of the game. Obvioulsy not solid evidence, but I think it's in his favor.

This is a newbie game. Just because you don't think he's helping town doesn't mean that he doesn't think he's helping town... Hope that made sense.

As long as he can convince me that HE thinks that he's helping town, I see no reason why he should be mafia. I'll be interested to hear his defense.

As of right now, I consider him more suspicious than Cattivik, but I don't see any really good evidence that he is mafia.


I was planning on posting my own scumreads in this post, but I've been staring at this thread for hours now and am gonna take a break. I think it's long enough already anyways. I'll make cases against my own scumreads within the next 8 hours.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 31 2012 22:25 GMT
#184
@heist
I don't really follow your stance on Cattivik. Could you please clearly explain how his defense of me has implicated him as mafia in your eyes? I agree that his behavior is out of the ordinary. But I would like to hear why you feel that his staunch defense of me is more likely a mafia move than a townie move.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
May 31 2012 22:56 GMT
#187
@heist
So it seems you find it most likely that I am town, Cattivik is mafia, and he is just trying to gain townie cred. This is a reasonable hypothesis, but imo it's not that likely.

The tone of Cattivik's posts suggests to me that he is a very confident, aggresive player. And therefore it is in character to be more sure about his beliefs than most people would be. Also, he went out of his way to defend me. Nobody even asked his opinion.

The reason I ask is that under your hypothesis, your town-read of me should reinforce your mafia-read of Cattivik, rather than 'temper' it. I guess this is a bit counter-intuitive.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 01 2012 02:18 GMT
#194
In case it wasn't clear from my earlier post, I'm not too happy with either of the current top lynch candidates, Cattivik and Unforgiven. So I'm going to try to convince you guys to vote for someone I think actually has a good chance of being mafia.

My top scumread is currently suki. I think I have a pretty good case. For what it's worth, I typed up most of this post before unforgiven's recent accusation and vote on suki.

Here we go. Sorry for the lengthy post, but I've put a lot of time into it and I think there's some good points so I'd appreciate it if you all read the whole thing.

suki's first post
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 31 2012 12:34 suki wrote:
Simply voting to 'pressure' an explanation seems too flimsy - he could have simply asked for one and saved his pressure vote for later on if he needed it.

Rather, it feels like he has a distinct purpose in throwing out a vote that early, as if to say 'hey, I'm a townie because I'm not afraid to take bold actions'.

Let's say sciberbia is lynched on day 1 and turns out to be scum. Milton gains credibility for making a good read, and for being the first one to make it. On the other hand, if sciberbia is lynched and turns out to be town, Milton can hide behind the 'pressure vote' reasoning, and claim that it was too early to really know for sure when he made the vote.

And then there's the possibility that sciberbia isn't lynched at all, in which case his vote ends up making no real difference - except that he still gains some townie credibility for being bold enough to take action.

I'm leaning towards Milton being town, simply because it would take a pretty ballsy mafia to make such a move so early on, but between sciberbia and Milton, Milton is the more suspicious to me at the moment. Although I don't agree with a Day 1 NL, I find that sciberbia's motives for pushing of a Day 1 NL are sincere and at the very least is generating discussion (which is good for the town regardless), whereas Milton's vote is just confusing.

@Miltonkram
I'd like a clear explanation of why you felt it was so important to vote for sciberbia this early in the game.


On May 31 2012 12:43 suki wrote:
Oh wait, this is kind of important to my reasoning.

Are you allowed to change your vote after you make it?

I dont see any explicit answer in the rules. I assume you can't since we're not able to edit our posts, but just to make sure...


Here are his first two posts in which he ponders Miltonkram's vote on me. I believe suki that he didn't know the rules about changing votes, but I still find this post a bit off.

First of all, his logic doesn't make sense to me. He recognizes the vote as confusing and thinks the reasoning behind it 'flimsy'. So far so good. He seems to be suggesting that Miltonkram might be mafia.

But then he analyzes the possible outcomes of the vote from the perspective that Miltonkram is town. Notice that suki considers the scenario that I am mafia. At that point in the game, it looked pretty damn unlikely that me and Milton were both mafia. So why is suki analyzing what a townie Miltonkram stands to gain from that vote? What's the point of that analysis?

Then he says that he's leaning toward Miltonkram being town. Makes his previous analysis even more pointless. He also pays me a nice compliment, which is definitely something a mafia might do: try to ally with the active posters.

Finally, I can think of one really good explanation as to why he realized his mistake: He might have gone back to the mafia QT where his scumbuddies set him straight. Just a theory. But I'd like to hear suki explain how he realized that he had misinterpreted the rules.

In Summary
his first post contains some confusing, pointless analysis where he seems to be putting suspcion on Miltonkram, but then backs off of it


Suki's big followup post
+ Show Spoiler +

There's a lot to talk about here, and in my opinion, a lot of evidence against suki. I'll try to break it down.

+ Show Spoiler +

On May 31 2012 23:51 suki wrote:
MiltonKram

First, the ability to change your vote kind of lessens the importance of Milton's extremely fast voting, and sort of discounts a lot of my initial suspicions of him, but his response to criticism is... lackluster at best. I find it interesting that after making such a big action early on, he's content to simply apologize, meekly acknowledge that sciberbia's math was right and recede his vote...

And yet he still sits on the fence about sciberbia, and 'everyone else'. Just like s0lstice, I find it suspicious that he's so aggressive without conviction. Only after prodding (5 hours after he receded his vote), does he start sharing his thoughts about other players, and even then he only targets three, two for being lurkers and one for a glaring contradiction. He fails to make any committing calls for action.

Finally, although I suspect that his apology was directed to everyone, he did not respond to my question, when my entire first post was directed towards asking him his motivations in voting (the fact that he didn't respond to me is suspicious to me regardless of how valid my points actually were).

Miltonkram, I'm keeping my eye on you.



OK so before he said he was leaning toward Miltonkram being town. s0lstice stated he was suspicious of Miltonkram. Now suki piles on some suspicion, but is so damn wishy/washy about it. He describes Milton's response as "lackluster" and his actions as "interesting". Then he concludes by saying "I'm keeping my eye on you." All this seems scummy to me. He changes his mind about Milton, bandwaggoning with s0sltice, and is quite noncomittal about it.

+ Show Spoiler +


On May 31 2012 23:51 suki wrote:
Eishi_Ki

Eishi_Ki seems bandwagon-y in his first post. By the time he posts, Cattivik already has heist and golden posting their suspicions on him. He then calls out Milton for targetting sciberbia for... going against the grain? It doesn't seem to contribute anything.

The rest of his posts are defending himself, and then he calls out me, Xatalos and Super. His insight on Xatalos is interesting... but I feel like Xatalos has been contributing his thoughts quite a bit in the thread and calling out people for scummy behaviour.

In any case, I don't think Eishi is scum, but he hasn't contributed that much to the thread as of yet.



This also seems like scummy analysis. He piles suspicion on Eishi_Ki, but then says he doesn't think eishi_ki is scum. Again, what is the point of posting this analysis? It seems to me like he's just trying to make it look like he's doing analysis, without actually accusing anybody.

Also, remember how he complimented me on my posts before? Well here he is sucking up to Xatalos, who is another active poster and was directing a lot of discussion.

+ Show Spoiler +

On May 31 2012 23:51 suki wrote:
Unforgiven

Unforgiven seems to be the hot topic of the day, for his inconsistencies. I agree that he seems really suspicious. He also hasn't even accused anyone yet, much less contributed anything other than generalities and apologize for his english.

Really scummy. For the sake of brevity, I'll keep this short, but I'm willing to expand on my thoughts on Unforgiven if asked.

##Vote Unforgiven_ve

It may change later but for now I feel he is the most suspicious one in the game.



He hasn't even mentioned unforgiven before, but now he jumps on the bandwaggon, simply agreeing with everyone else who thought Unforgiven was suspicious. Suki, you said you'd be willing to expand your thoughts on Unforgiven. I'd appreciate it if you did.

+ Show Spoiler +

On May 31 2012 23:51 suki wrote:
I'd also be up for a lurker vote on day 1.. From reading everyone's opinions it seems lurkers can be really dangerous. In which case, I'll call out Ange777 and superouman.



Not the most damning statement, but certainly doesn't convince me he's town. He's trying to seem like a helpful noobie townie who is willing to go along with popular opinion and lynch lurkers. Take that for what it's worth.


Now he bandwaggons on Cattivik
+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 01 2012 00:27 suki wrote:
Cattivik's entire defence of his innocence in the initial stages of the game seems to revolve around him either knowing or not knowing whether sciberbia is a townie.

He also throws out a vote for Eishi, because he claims Eishi says he has 'a reason to keep lurking.' I didn't see anything of this sort in Eishi's posts. The only thing close is the very reasonable statement that he lives in Korea so his schedule is different from everyone else. It feels like his vote is purely a defensive reaction to Eishi calling him out.

Add Cattivik to my scum list.


Really bandwaggony here. Heist, eishi_ki, and golden had all already accused cattivik. Suki basically just repeats their reasons and adds cattivik to his 'scum list'.

I don't think that this is necessarily scummy, but as you will see later, he becomes quite wishy/washy about Cattivik.


Now a fluffy, non-controversial post
+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 01 2012 02:22 suki wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 01 2012 02:04 Superouman wrote:
And from my first mafia game ever point of view, the first day is no more than a lottery


The first day is not a lottery, though, and even if it was, the information that we gain from everyone posting their thoughts is invaluable in the later stages of the game. You NEED to post your opinions, and you need to post them often. Your Day 1 posts may be the only thing keeping you from getting lynched come Day 4 or whatever.

I'm starting to see why people dislike lurkers so much. Over time, we may find out more clear reads on Cattivik and Unforgiven_ve by analysing their posts, but someone who doesn't contribute will a) never give a read and b) will be a wildcard come voting time and may not properly push the town's agenda.




States some pretty fluffy, non-controversial stuff. Doesn't take a hard stance on who we should lynch.


Now he backs off of cattivik
+ Show Spoiler +

+ Show Spoiler +

On June 01 2012 02:41 suki wrote:
Show nested quote +

People accusing cattivik

Consider both sides of the spectrum. Can you really not see a logical town motivation behind his posts thus far? Getting in everyone's faces, tunneling Eishi_Ki, and staunch, energetic defense of his actions. He has been very active thus far. I don't agree with his methods, but they sure as hell read town to me.

Don't make mountains out of molehills. Consider not just his words, but the aims behind them.


s0lstice, I'm inclined to agree with you, but don't you think it's strange that cattivik seems so confident that sciberbia is town, simply from the first few posts in Day 1? It just strikes me as really off.

The fact that he was so quick to lash out at Eishi_Ki may just be 'getting in his face', and I suppose both sides of the argument seem pretty petty all things considered.. But I'm not so sure that you can say that his actions strictly read town.

Cattivik, I think the discussion regarding the earlier posts of Eishi_Ki and sciberbia should be set aside for a moment. I'd like to hear your opinions on other players.



s0sltice addresses cattivik's accusers and defends cattivik against them. Now look how suki tries not to take a stance. He's "inclined to agree" with s0sltice. Whereas just a minute ago Cattivik was on his 'scum list', now he "supposes that both sides of the argument seem pretty petty". But he's "not so sure that you can say Cattivik's actions stricly read town". This is about as wishy/wasy as it gets. Scummy behavior.


In summary suki displays many characteristics of a mafia
- he is very hesitant to take a hard stance on anything
- he tried to pile suspicion on miltonkram, eishi_ki, unforgiven, and cattivik without really taking a strong stance
- he was wishy/washy in his accusations of both miltonkram and cattivik
- he tries to befriend active posters such as myself and xalatos

@Town
If you agree with me about suki, please say so, and indicate what in particular you find scummy. If you disagree, I'd like to hear you at least say so and give a reason why. Personally, I'm more confident about suki than anyone else so I will...

##Vote suki
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 01 2012 05:14 GMT
#195
It's been 3 hours and not a post has been made since my accusation of suki. I'd like to hear some opinions on him.

Anyways, I'm going to bed. I'll probably be back online about 6 hours before the deadline. Night.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 01 2012 18:14 GMT
#235
on suki
On first read, I liked his defense. I'm going to thoroughly read his filter in the near future and figure out where I stand on him. I think there is a more pressing issue right now, namely the 5 votes on Ange777.

on Ange777
I've looked through the 5 votes on her, and with the possible exception of miltonkram, a major reason for voting Ange was the simple fact that she was lurking. Well, Ange has officially stopped lurking, and has given every indication that she'll contribute in future days if she is not lynched today. So, I think you all need to ask yourself if you really believe she is mafia.

Personally, I don't see her play as either particularly scummy or particularly townie, so I'd consider lynching her no more than a coin flip. 3/12. This is not something I would throw my vote behind.

Who do we lynch?
It's unfortunate, but I don't really agree with any of the popular lynch candidates right now. Since you all insist on a lynch, I'm going to go through the thread and make a post on who I think we as a group could agree on and be happy about lynching.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 01 2012 18:47 GMT
#238
@s0lstice
Maybe I misread, but I think there were 2 issues. One is Mafia LV and that will of course continue to be an issue. I think she also had some real-life busyness that I assume will not be as much of an issue in future.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 01 2012 19:24 GMT
#248
Lynch Candidates:

cattivik
suspicious: golden, heist, eishi_ki
unsure: miltonkram, suki
defensive: me, xatalos, s0lstice

status: I don't think we're lynching him today

unforgiven
suspicious: s0sltice, golden, suki, cattivik
not convinced: me, xatalos, heist, milton
defensive: ange

status: don't think we're lynching him today either

Ange
this situation is really up in the air right now, because we only got any real information in the past couple hours. Several people voted for her just because she was lurking, and she is no longer lurking. She has pledged to contribute much more tomorrow. So, I'd like to know where everybody stands on her now. Xatalos and someone else (idr) argued that we have the most votes on her and should therefore lynch her to guarantee a lynch. This is a reasonable stance but I really don't think we should lynch her unless people actually think she is mafia. It's not like we get a whole lot of information from lynching Ange, compared to everyone else. Also, I think we have other candidates (see below).

suki
suspicious: ange, eishi_ki, unforgiven, me, miltonkram, s0lstice
unsure: vivax
defensive: Xatalos

status: I think we could definitely lynch suki. Many people find him suspicious and only Xatalos has posted any real defense.

superouman
suspicious: golden, heist, eishi_ki, miltonkram
maybe: xatalos, s0sltice, cattivik
don't think he's mafia: sciberbia

status: Seems like a decent lynch candidate overall. Personally, I don't think he's mafia. I think a lot of you guys are just attacking him for bad townie play.

IMO, our best lynch candidates are: suki, ange, superouman
If you have not yet given your opinion on these players, now is a good time to do so. Also, if your opinion has changed as a result of Ange's recent activity or suki's recent defense, please say so.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 01 2012 19:30 GMT
#252
I am unfortunately busy for the next hour and a half or so. I'll be back before the deadline for sure though.

My views:
suki: pretty scummy early on. defense was good. Still, my top choice atm
ange: I don't really have a read. I want to review her recent posts again.
superouman: Not convinced he's mafia. Just seems like a very disagreeable townie.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 01 2012 21:35 GMT
#305
I'm back. The thread has gotten really hectic. It seems we are between suki and unforgiven? Or is Ange still in the running? I'm going to reread suki's filter now. I want to hear as many opinions on the lynch candidates as possible.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 01 2012 21:51 GMT
#317
I've reread suki's filter and I still think he has a good chance to be mafia. Out of everyone here, who thinks suki is a bad lynch?
- Xatalos is leaning slightly town on him
- Cattivik is "confident" that suki is town
- Heist is "not completely convinced"

Other people who haven't voted on suki
- Eishi_KI was I think suspicious of suki, but is not currently in the thread
- superouman probably has no helpful opinion
- I don't think golden has commented on him

Everyone else seems on board with a suki lynch. I think that, on the whole, suki is a fine lynch choice.
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 01 2012 21:53 GMT
#320
EBWOP: Golden said he was uncertain on suki
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 01 2012 22:14 GMT
#336
Fuck yea! well done team :D :D :D
sciberbia
Profile Joined April 2011
United States1359 Posts
June 01 2012 22:32 GMT
#349
I'm just enjoying the moment. We nailed the best possible lynch, and got a megaton of information along the way. Again, well done guys.

This gives us some information on the setup. We either have both a cop and a medic, or neither. With the roleblocker dead, it opens up the possibility for our cop (if we have one) to come out with guaranteed medic protection. I'm not so sure that this is a good idea so early though. I'll think on it.

Anyway, I'm just gonna take a break and then reread the thread, especially all that last-minute chaos. I'll probably post again before I go to sleep in about 6 hours.

Oh and welcome shiaopi
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