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First thing I said to him is that I was terrified of the fact that if he was mafia, he had a free day of lurking. He has had plenty of time to catch up, and day 2 was his tryout period for me. He failed.
My ideal situation is that we lynch golden today, and he's the godfather. Then it'd be cool if any blues we have left focus on skware, by either vig shooting him or DT checking him. Either way, he will be largely dealt with.
If golden is not the godfather, but some other mafia role, then its more complicated. In this situation I would still consider lynching skware.
You know how life goes with best laid plans however. Basically, yes I wouldn't mind killing him tomorrow on the strength of what we know about him, but I think we are better off with Golden today
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
We still have some time to the deadline. I am still hoping that Release and Mordanis have the chance to see the posts and make an opinion on it. Also let's give golden the benefit of doubt. His defense was scrappy, but I would really like to get another reaction from him before just lynching him without giving him a chance to defend against the now increasing pressure.
A lynch on skware would be totally fine with me as well. he is almost as bad a lurker as mufaa was and I still do not get his vote on Release without some proper reasoning.
I do hope though that Mordanis and Release might be able to see it and maybe give their opinion on the current state of the vote. Since we need 4 to lynch at least one of them has to come online and place his vote or we will end up with a no-lynch.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
EBWOP: I just saw that I was repeating myself in my post, but nevermind I guess you all got that I really want to get their opinions
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I as well would like to see what Release and Mordanis have to say.
On giving Golden the benefit of the doubt..I wasn't 100% sure on him when I posted my case. He had the benefit of the doubt with me until he posted his defense. I was ready to read what he had to say to defend himself, consider it objectively, and compare it to my read. To me though, his defense was just so far off the mark. Maybe I'm not being lenient enough, but I dont think so this time.
I understand that you want to see more from him, and that's fine. So do I. Everyone will have to decide for themselves.
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Mods, can I (humbly) ask you to line out sciberbia on page 1 player list? thank you!
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Sorry everyone, I got home from work a lot later than I expected, and passed out until now.
@ShiaoPi: Your main points against me are that I was one of the leaders of the lynch against Hegeo, that I had a knee-jerk response to Hegeo's accusations, and that one of me and release is scum. First, I was active in my case against Hegeo because I thought he was the strongest case we had. When I read through again, with hindsight, I could see some things that may have lessened my case against him, but I still feel that his play was the scummiest. And I also created a lot of information by following through on my case. Admittedly it is always a mistake to lynch a townie, but if you automatically lynch one of the leaders of the case that brings about the mislynch, you end up with no town activity. I made a mistake, but it was a necessary one for the town.
About my knee-jerk: I read through like 2 spoilers before going to work, and I could already see that the case was very weak. As my much longer review shows, there is virtually no factual foundation for his claim. The logic he then uses doesn't make sense either (If playing similarly to another player is scummy, then Shiao must be scum because he keeps following Milton). I could already see that the case wasn't heading anywhere that should be harmful, so I off-handedly showed that one of his facts was not a fact. Look through my post where I look at his accusations, and tell me if you really think that was still a solid logical argument. If not, then I don't see any reason for suspicion.
Finally, the whole thing about either me or Release being scum needs to end. This is the definition of a false dichotomy. The only basis for this argument is Milton's post + Show Spoiler +On May 25 2012 06:12 Miltonkram wrote:
I think we all need to take a step back and look at the events of D1 a little more logically and less reactively. Why would a scum team both tunnel the same player? The only thing we're sure of is that hegeo flipped town, that doesn't make his analysis correct, anymore than it makes it incorrect. That being said, since Release and Mordanis were the two to put the most pressure on hegeo, I'd like to analyze their play under all possible circumstances.
Mafia + Mafia
Why would a scum team link their names D1 of the game? I think we all agree that Mordanis and Release were the most vocal against hegeo, and that could mean they tunneled him because they saw him as a weak target that they wouldn't get much flak for going against. If they are both scum, this is the most likely explanation of their actions. However, I just don't see a good enough reason for scum to band together on D1. That's a short-sighted play that would come back to bite them in the ass later. Possibility: least likely.
Townie + Townie
If both players were indeed town, an explanation of their actions could be that they just weren't ever satisfied with hegeo's defense. Let's face it, hegeo did not do a good job of defending himself. If he had, I would be the one lynched and he'd still be alive. So far, besides their knee-jerk reactions to hegeo's post, I'd say that they both have had decent, but not great town play. The bad news is, they've both played really scummy ever since hegeo's big reveal. Possibility: still unlikely, but more likely than M + M.
Townie + Mafia
Here's how I think it happened. The townie player felt he had a good case against his percieved scum target, and was encouraged that others felt the same way. The scum player knew he wouldn't be the only one targeted when hegeo flipped town and thus pulled the trigger and kept pressure on him. Worst case scenario for the scum player is a 50/50 situation where both he and the townie player are under pressure. Possibility: most likely situation.
That is my read on last night's events. The good news is I think we have the scum player in the worst possible situation. A 50/50 lynch is still better than a 2/7 lynch. I'm going to go over both Mordanis' and Release's filters to see what kind of a case can be made against them. I've been thinking a lot about these events and I think my analysis is pretty good. Thoughts on this anyone?
@ whoever said my analysis of the first 6 pages was simply a summarization: it wasn't. I looked at every major post in those pages and analyzed it to see how scummy it appeared. For the most part, all I got was that, at least initially, the case against Milton was mostly unfounded, and that Golden was being very suspicious. Perhaps I should have posted a short blurb telling what change happened in my estimation of each player. It was still fairly good analysis, and, as opposed to most of the talk in this thread, was based entirely on facts.
@ ShiaoPi: My analysis was that only one post, not you as a player, was slightly scummy. I did the same for several other players. If you only seem slightly scummy, then you're in a pretty good place. Right now, I see no reason to build a case against you.
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One last thing: I'm going to hold off for just a little while more while I go through Golden's filter. He seems like the best case, but I want to make sure that he is before I cast a vote against him. I promise I'll be here in plenty of time to cast a vote though.
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On May 26 2012 20:43 skware wrote:
##Vote: Release
Going to sleep/work probably wont be back til after the vote
may i ask why?
During day 1 after reflecting on my push against Hegeo, i realized that we had two independent cases. I realized this was probably the Mafia's intention (to split our attention). now you post this
+ Show Spoiler +On May 26 2012 21:29 O.Golden_ne wrote:@s0lstice. 1. Scumhunting: You're saying that i havent been searching for scum? I've read as much of this thread as you have. Are you saying that i'm not scumhunting because i have focussed on a single player instead of flipping between several all the time. Accusing everyone? It's my opinion that there are different roles of town, and not every town needs to be flinging shit at everyone. Whether or not Release is a town, he's been doing this just fine. I initially got a town vibe from him but because of the Mordanis/Release link i'm still uncertain of his loyalty. I digress. 2. Accountability: yes i must admit i did plan on posting a more in depth post on the issue. And in hindsight its very stupid i didnt because now my case i easily tainted if i was on the right track. eg. if YOU s0lstice and milton were mafia this is a perfect deflection, "omg, where is your argument on milton.. you must be making filler" if you were to pick me for accountability can i point you to this filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=154712if anyone should be accountable it should be Mufaa's replacement. he has a total of 4 very small posts. perhaps there is a reason mufaa wasn't modkilled. my argument on Milton still stands. i should be online for a little longer.
which is basically saying that you had no intentions of ever looking towards Hegeo's case seriously. This makes me believe that you are one of the mafia who tried to split our attention.
do we have 3 hours left or 27 hours left?
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the vote is tonight, I'm pretty sure
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
@Mordanis:
My main argumentation was actually a kind of weak case against hegeo, (I would be really happy if you could outline the entire "passive-aggressive" thing a bit better. It is still totally quizzical to me) the knee-jerk and no contribution in regards of day 2 until now (or much less in comparison to the zeal of day 1). The reason I investigated you and Release is not so much about Milton's ideas but more about a case of a confirmed townie (bad as he might have been), who spent a lot of effort writing it.
I did say that your defense in general was pretty reasonable and logical (since the case of hegeo is much more about feeling a certain kind of tag-teaming in day 1 than solid evidence). Before hegeo's case you two were pretty high town reads for me and now I am just not as trusting anymore, which I hope is a reasonable stance towards you, since a "knee-jerk" remains a "knee-jerk".
There is also no questioning that we did gather information from this and I was not suggesting lynching everyone who participates in a mislynch, my FOS was just in order to get more information, which you are openly providing. So that's a plus.
Onto the topic of today's lynch I believe that with the current votecount we should go with the lynch on Golden.
skware's play has been ridiculous until now so I would say if need arises he can easily be dealt with via lynch/whatever blue role we have.
As of now we have about 2,5 hours to go (If I recall correctly) so unless Golden posts some substantial and good defense which can convince me, I'll stay put with ##Vote O.Golden_ne
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@Shiao
Why don't you pay more attention to Sciberia's accusation of Solstice then? Sciberia was certainly killed by mafia, was certainly town, and was logical. I just don't get why you pay more attention to Hegeo who was killed by the town because he was a bad townie (illogical). Care to explain why?
OK, the time has come. ##Vote: O.Golden_ne. I may have jinxed this before, but gentlemen *raises his glass of RC cola in a toast* Here's to hope!
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EBWOP: I didn't mean to say that I think solstice is scum, just that the feeling that Hegeo was a tragic figure is not a justification for trusting his judgement. Look at his logic, if you don't think its solid, why do you pay attention to it?
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
On May 27 2012 06:09 Mordanis wrote:
@Shiao
Why don't you pay more attention to Sciberia's accusation of Solstice then? Sciberia was certainly killed by mafia, was certainly town, and was logical. I just don't get why you pay more attention to Hegeo who was killed by the town because he was a bad townie (illogical). Care to explain why?
Maybe I should have posted my opinion on sciberbia's thoughts kind of got lost when I spent time catching up to the thread.
After the post of hegeo I was pretty sure that he would be flipping town. Maybe it is sheeping solstice's reasons, but I see no reason for scum to act as hegeo did. Hegeo basically thought, okay I am dead better leave my best scumread behind even if it costs me the chance to defend myself.
On another note it was in sciberbia's own quote: "I looked through solstice's filter and didn't find anything else I had an issue with, so I'm not prepared to say he is definitely scum, but it really strikes me as something suspcious. Again, just wanted to put it out there in case I die."
It was not a "100%-convinced-of-it"-case as hegeo made his. I mean as I stated above, hegeo gave away his chance to make a reasonable defense for his case. Therefore I scrutinized it a lot more.
Furthermore the mafia goals to shooting sciberbia have already outlined by me in this here:
+ Show Spoiler +On May 26 2012 00:35 ShiaoPi wrote:
Sorry for the lack of activity before but as it is life happens.
We just lost sciberbia so we probably should take a closer look on his filter:
It mainly consists of pressure against Milton and some rebuttals with Mordanis and to a lesser extent release. Just before getting shot he also has a slight suspicion of solstice.
What does mafia stand to gain from eliminating him?
-Silencing a good and contributing townie, who was pretty much a high townread (at least in my opinion)
-Removing Pressure off his targets
-Making people suspicious of his targets
Looking at it only the first point is a given the rest is probably close to WIFOM, but something to keep in mind following the discussion.
Regarding our choice of lynch for day we now have as reasonable candidates Release/Mordanis/Milton and myself (I guess). I'll share my thoughts on the whole Release/Mordanis issue later, just wanted to say that we should not forget sciberbias contributions even though he got shot (maybe it should be even closer scrutinized because he was shot)
As I pointed out you can only gain limited information from a nightkill as only 1) Silencing good/contributing town is a given.
A lynch on the other hand gives you the entire dayplay to consider when rereading the thread to get to know how we ended up with that situation. So in conclusion, I did consider sciberbia's last post but I did not consider it to be as "strong" as hegeo's last post. Furthermore s0lstice's play after the post in which he explained his accusations against me seem to me very townie. As it is my personal read, I simply chose not to make that much out of sciberbia's "last words".
I hope this makes sense to you, otherwise ask away!
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+ Show Spoiler +On May 22 2012 18:06 O.Golden_ne wrote:Good evening all, Well i've been following everything today via iPhone at work, but i'll be most active in the evenings. Such as now! Okay to start things off, Release has taken a very aggressive stance. This seems standard, someone always needs to shake things up. That being said, it was fairly amusing watching him post #FOS at anyone posting. I had a LOL at my desk. While it is good to shake things up, which he is doing. I do feel like he sort of shut down several good points that both Mordanis and Sciberbia have made, and is picking on some very minor problems with their posts that would be expected so early in the game. Please dont focus on the semantics so much Release. + Show Spoiler +A better word for "mistake" in this context is "slip", and i advise people to use slip in the future because it more accurately denotes what a bad mafia would do.
I think take a bit to absorb what everyone is saying. Please remember that there are 7 of us Town and while discouraging fluff is essential in dissecting the mafia from the pack you need to keep in mind that the majority of us are town and we WANT to promote discussion. Pointing the finger at everyone that talks, for semantics OR their opinions is perhaps not the best way to encourage people to engage in a profitable discussion. To add my 2 cents on the DayOneLynch (D1L) I agree with hegeo, Release and Mordanis. It is my opinion that on day one we need to lynch someone, it provides a lot of information and in the optimum situation we can get lucky and hit a mafia. I'd rather mislynch one of our own, then wait a day and one of us get sniped. Ending up in a similar circumstance to the start of D1 just minus a player. Ugh. Also, i consider lurkers to be quite scummy. So unless a lurker posts some seriously good content every day, they will be under some scrutiny from myself. @Miltonkram, what is your on opinion on hegeo's statement: Show nested quote +Furthermore, I think it might be a good idea to not share your town reads early on, since this will make "weaker" town reads an easy target for scum and will give scum safety when they see themselves being seen as strong town reads. By doing so, they will need to justify their posts/opinions and it will be easier to keep the pressure high and find inconsistencies.
You claim that i shut down Mordanis and Sciberia. This was extremely early game stuff that the town pretty much had a consensus for and i didn't want to spend all day discussing lynch vs nolynch.
Next, you try to stop people from looking at my point that mistake=/= slip. This is an important point, not merely semantics. Pure BS.
Pointing the finger DID get discussion going though. You seem to be allergic to the finger. + Show Spoiler +
Next you agree with the consensus. No problem here.
You consider lurkers quite scummy in the next part: It's day 1 and we should be looking for scum not lurkers.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 22 2012 20:45 O.Golden_ne wrote:
@Miltonkram. good point. this early in the game it IS unlikely anyone will have a solid town or mafia read.
I think it's crucial everyone establishes a list of who they suspect to be town and mafia.
However, it might be wise to only publicly question, accuse and point suspicions once you've got several points of reasoning. As i don't want people to have to be defending themselves against 'scummy' accusations due to poor semantics and one-off poor wording. I think people's overall playstyle is a much greater indicator of their allegiance then a one-off slip (or mistake).
Obviously other's may have a much more reactive play style where they will prefer to isolate single remarks. Though i want to take a look at a larger picture before casting my votes. Note that if other peoples reads on single-posts match with my overall read of a player i'll pay it attention. (and if someone makes some high level analysis of a post)
TL;DR
1. Unlikely to have solid town/mafia reads this early.
2. Keep a personal list of reads.
3. Only post accusations when you've got some good reasoning rather than pointing the finger willy-nilly.
4. IMO. A players overall style should have a more considerable weighting than a one off post. I will vote accordingly unless there is a good analysis of why a players post may be a scum-slip.
My intention for this post is to try add a little structure, so that when deadlines start looming we're not left flailing in the deep.
Also, just reading Hegeo's recent posts. I didn't even notice Mordanis's comment about me. He was in my first (and last) game and i enjoyed his play style as he was fairly active. I however was not, and had to pull out of that game due to personal reasons. I plan on being quite active and want to keep my posting fairly succinct, my posts in the previous game became large walls of texts and i want to avoid this. So i have and will be including TL:DR's wherever applicable.
Milton said that he doesn't want us to post reads with the town. My opinion is that this is wrong. You however, seem to agree and want to prevent the town from spreading crucial information.
Next, again, you seem to be stopping the flow of information, asking people to wait. Essentially, you're letting scum get away with one slip, and only want to pressure them if they make more slips. Feels like you want to target newbies rather than scum.
Next comes your excuse for not posting as much. However, you haven't really posted many times with multiple quotes despite that being your point.
TL:DR is shit in mafia. Everyone should read entire posts when they have the time. TL:DR is more likely a way to subtly skew the information that was included in the entire post.
For ex: 1 is a summary of what you wrote, but what you wrote actually implies that you don't want us to share information. by itself, 1 is completely useless.
Some more mumbo-jumbo and your wish to be "quite active" clearly hasn't been followed.
Accountability: Fail.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 23 2012 06:14 O.Golden_ne wrote:@Sciberbia: RE: Miltonkram. I was getting exactly the same read. I have found all his posts to date fairly inline with what i have experienced as mafia in the past. I have wanted to hear more from him since his first post, that's why i directed my question to him. His answer has a good point about us not having much information currently to make any solid stances, however he DOES side with all the safest views and DOESNT put anything ground breaking or new into the public arena before sidelining and going to bed. Definitely need to hear more from him before the day is out if he plans on having a leg to stand on, as i can see at the very least a case forming on him for being fluffy lurker. @Mordanis: RE: Hegeo. You raise some good points, but like i said earlier i can't base a vote on just a single incriminating post. Sometime people only have a short amount of time to zip into the thread and post. and in my experience ALL rushed posts come off with a scum vibe. So i for one am going to let the "coincidence" debate slide on this one, and try read a little further into other statements today before casting my vote. Show nested quote +One final thing: I think the whole passive-aggressive thing needs to end. I understand that you don't want to be lynched (neither do I), but just being angry at one person for the sake of being angry doesn't help anything. This is very important to establish early on also, for everyone. If you're town, you've got nothing to worry about other than posting as much info as you can before you die. We all don't want to be lynched because playing is fun, however its more important to play WELL than to play for a LONG TIME. Play for the team, not for yourself as thats how scum play. @Hegeo. I'd love to see your response to Releases accusation. As his is the most tangible accusation to date. Because he's acctually got a vote behind it! Please rebut. I'll be posting more in my lunch break in 5 hours. c u soon
Sciberia posts just before you (about mordanis/hegeo) and you respond about Milton. This is distracting and confusing to the town. Although maybe you haven't got ideas on Mordanis/Hegeo. But then, you should be taking your time to get some info on this case.
You agree criticize Milton for the exact thing that you are doing. And you don't acknolwedge this in your post.
Again, you appear to be trying to stop the flow of information and thoughts.
Then you post some filler about townies playing for the town. Pretty obvious and useless...
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On May 23 2012 17:05 O.Golden_ne wrote:
@Release. Sorry, i am here don't stress, it 6:00pm and i finished at 5:00pm l logged on the moment i got home!! It's hard to make time except for after work. I am catching up on all the happenings and will post a more in depth post in a moment.
i was hoping you'd post something useful when you came back, but this isn't anything important.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 23 2012 18:14 O.Golden_ne wrote:
I want to post a few of my reads so far in the public arena, hopefully my separation from todays events will give me a different perspective and perhaps help in focusing from the 4 or so cases down to a smaller number.
1. Mufaa.
Obviously useless. I'm more than happy to give him the boot, however before we do i'd like to look into some other avenues of lynching because if he keeps up his current style and fails to post a vote before the day is out he will be modkilled. Why waste a lynch on someone who is most likely to get killed by moderators! haha. That being said if he posts intermittently just to hang into the game. then we instantly should usher him from the game as it's fairly obvious he's just hanging around to get his Mafia night kills in.
2. Miltonkram (open his filter in another window for this, it should be easy to follow and not too long.)
Just to state the facts. His first few points were very summary-esque. I'm wary of these sorts of posts early in game as it means a player can conceal their views and reveal them at a later date when real discussion is happening. It gives the impression that he is contributing whereas he is actually delaying input so to clutter later on.
next.
he moves to pressure s0lstice. (after s0lstice posted, then removed his #FOS) in what i see as a defensive measure under the "rationale" that s0lstice should have continued with his pressure.
it is my opinion that he did this to cement his 'innocence' by 'promoting' a more thorough pressuring in future.
next.
after his accusation of s0lstice (FOR ALTERNATING HIS #FOS TO QUICKLY) do you know what he does? His next post in his filter is moving his defensive #FOS against s0lstice (quite hypocritically i might add) onto another player (ShiaoPi).
next.
he avoids his next suspicion (ShiaoPi) and jumps on a bandwagon of voting against Mufaa. (which i'm fine with, except for the context its in)
I feel that Miltonkram's play is quite scummy.
3. Hegeo
I pretty much agree with Mordanis on this player, but i will reserve voting.
4. ShiaoPi
This player has been very defensive the whole game. It's hard to get a read from someone when they are being defensive. He does a good job of trying to avert suspicion from him. The problem with defensive play is that you start to get suspicious of the person accusing you.
Thoughts & Comments
Obviously i need to read a little more into the other players but these are some i have focussed on so far. Miltonkram sticks out to me the most out of the non-lurkers however.
I urge everyone, both people being defensive and offensive. To have a re-read over the person they are accusing/defending and try to see their other posts that arent aimed to you. Perhaps you will get a bit more insight into their position as remember there is 7 of us trying to figure this out!
##FOS Miltonkram
Some obvious points about Mufaa. But considering he had votes against him, i can dismiss this.
Again, criticizing Milton for doing the same things that you are doing. You post a lot of summary here with a few light pinches of analysis.
You agree with mordanis. Mordanis thinks Hegeo is scum. You don't want to vote for the scum (or at least a scummy looking person) is what i get from this.
The point about ShiaoPi has probably the most analysis in the whole post. But it doesn't include anything incriminating nor does it praise him for good townie play. You seem to be willing to go either way with ShiaoPi, ready to jump on the townies reads rather than providing your own opinions.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 23 2012 19:27 O.Golden_ne wrote:
@ShaoPi your #FOS of s0lstice seems to be more in retaliation to his argument against you that of any solid evidence.
That being said.
@s0lstice, i can't see any reason why you're going for ShaoPi.
both of you seem to be tunnelling eachother for knee-jerk voting the other. could each of you please write in dot points your arguments. I just need a simplified summary of your cases as i'm having trouble following them.
@Miltonkram. Thank you for your swift reply. I understand that you can now see the holes in your play and it looks like you're ready to get into the swing of posting a bit more content. To get that started.. can you clarify your stance on ShaoPi for me in dot points also.
i'm still waiting to see the community's response to my post on you and i'd like some discussion before i remove or act on my #FOS. your comments have been noted.
More support for your TL:DR. Read the damn posts. Read them twice if you don't get it the first time.
Lazy play, or trying to waste the townies' time. Doesn't look good for you.
Some more excuses for waiting rather than posting but at least you appear to be taking in others' opinions. Still, nothing brilliant here.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 23 2012 19:35 O.Golden_ne wrote:I'm liking that concise post sciberbia. Goodluck in exam. Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 19:13 sciberbia wrote:
It's obvious to me that those people under suspicion will push for a Mufaa lynch, just because they view him as an easy lynch and not too controversial. I'm not really going to hold it against you for pushing Mufaa, but let's face it (sorry for the hypothetical Release), if mufaa isn't mafia, who do the mafia have a really easy time getting mislynched? I agree with this point. Mufaa is a very easy option for us to lynch day one. Consider that he may be used as an escape option for the Mafia in day one. I personally think he will be modkilled. If Mufaa isn't modkilled i'll be super suspicious of him. BECAUSE, the only thing that can him from a modkill is a vote. Lurking that hard, followed by a vote is good grounds for a vig snipe or a day 2 lynch. I'm out for while.
More on Mufaa. This time, it seems like crap. You have already said it once, and there is no point in saying it again.
And the thought of wasting a vigi shot on him is shit. Vigi should shoot for scum that don't appear to be getting lynched.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 24 2012 06:32 O.Golden_ne wrote:
thank god i didn't miss the deadline. I went to sleep and forgot to vote.
I'm going to stand by my earlier posts about miltonkram.
but before i vote i want to say that i will change to Hegeo in the case that we dont get enough votes for a lynch, i like Mordanis and Releases argument on him.
In the case the miltonkram flips town, i'm going seriously question ShiaoPi however.
@Hegeo can you please swap your vote of Mufaa, he is most likely modkilled.
##Vote: Miltonkram
Nice hop on the bandwagon there. Your earlier posts were not solid convictions. They were very light and gave you the option to hop on the bandwagon without providing solid evidence. Your entire play has lacked convicting posts, always very wishy-washy, non-commital play.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 24 2012 19:00 O.Golden_ne wrote:woah, Doctor killed. we're really behind now  i'll mull over hegeo's final post before day two, it's really hard to draw links between players so early. but alot of what he has said works out. also Release, i dont think there was much of fiasco at the end of day one. the voting was fairly logical and it didnt seemed too rushed from anyone. people just switched over the the mis-lynch of hegeo.
You seem to be overemphasizing Hegeo's post here. He died, but it doesn't automatically make him correct, but you seem to agree, yet you seem to not have looked through the early posts again. Trying to get a bandwagon started for myself and Mordanis is what i assume.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 25 2012 12:26 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Okay this sucks. 2 team members down. I have been following but wok is super busy so I have to quickly duck in here during my lunch break on my phone. In going to write a large analysis this afternoon so about 5hours from thi post. Im not going to address sciberbias final post yet though I think it has credence.
The most heated debate at the moment is between 3 candidates.
Release, Morsanis and miltonkram.
Here's my read on the events at the moment.
Hegeos got smashed, and his final post carries the most weight of anything in this entire thread.
Since this time both Morsanis and release have been scrambling to defend themselves and appear least scummy. By the fact that they are both quite defensive I feel that miltonkram is right in saying one of them is most likely scum. However miltonkram by posting this opinion in relationship to his former situation makes me feel like he's using this as a great opportunity to avert attention from himself over to shiaopi.
It is my opinion so far that miltonkram is mafia, and one of either Morsanis or release is also.
I also think that his repetition about the 50/50 things makes him look very scummy as there is little content for so much taking. I'll quote it in my big post this arvo if it's still relevant.
Another empty promise.
Another overemphasis on Hegeo's post.
Agreeing with Milton's assumption based post= "i'll join the bandwagon if you start one"
Trying to nail milton to the wall because i did. This is one of the posts that made me realize that Milton is more or less in the same situation as Hegeo. You seem to be one advocating this.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 26 2012 21:29 O.Golden_ne wrote:@s0lstice. 1. Scumhunting: You're saying that i havent been searching for scum? I've read as much of this thread as you have. Are you saying that i'm not scumhunting because i have focussed on a single player instead of flipping between several all the time. Accusing everyone? It's my opinion that there are different roles of town, and not every town needs to be flinging shit at everyone. Whether or not Release is a town, he's been doing this just fine. I initially got a town vibe from him but because of the Mordanis/Release link i'm still uncertain of his loyalty. I digress. 2. Accountability: yes i must admit i did plan on posting a more in depth post on the issue. And in hindsight its very stupid i didnt because now my case i easily tainted if i was on the right track. eg. if YOU s0lstice and milton were mafia this is a perfect deflection, "omg, where is your argument on milton.. you must be making filler" if you were to pick me for accountability can i point you to this filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=154712if anyone should be accountable it should be Mufaa's replacement. he has a total of 4 very small posts. perhaps there is a reason mufaa wasn't modkilled. my argument on Milton still stands. i should be online for a little longer.
1) I kind of already adressed this in my prior post.
2) Proven time and time again that you fail at this.
good point about Skware though. I'll give you that.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 27 2012 02:41 O.Golden_ne wrote:
Okay i'm not sure how this is going to sit with everyone, but since i need to get a little more active than i have been AND its the weekend i'm going to say that i re-read over Mordanis's entire refutation of the Hegeo's final post.
I think that Mordanis and Release are victims of circumstance in this situation.
Mordanis's posts strike me as well thought out and very analytical, especially in his rebuttal of his link to Release.
Release; i've got a new-town vibe from him from the get go. Not afraid to get his hands dirty for the sake of the town. I'm however usually a little more reserved, i think town has places for both our kinds of players.
I also find it strange that 2 people have posted their cases on Mordanis so swiftly. Shiaopi and Miltonkram. I don't think that it's too far of a leap to presume that Mordanis is a very easy case today. It's worth a little thought.
Also, if there isn't a solid unified case today then Mufaa/Skware is a must-lynch. This is a useless player =/
thoughts? the deadline approaches.
Now you finally disagree with yourself and say that Hegeo's final post shouldn't carry as much weight as it has.
You actually make a fairly good point about Skware, but ifeel you need to rebuttal to at least one of the posts against you.
Since beginning writing this post, more replies have come so i need to read before i can comment on SHiaoPi.
+ Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +
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EBWOP: last two spoiler empty. I meant to spoiler the whole thing as it is likely to have repeated points.
Also, i meant to:
Vote: O.Golden_ne
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On May 27 2012 06:30 ShiaoPi wrote:Show nested quote +On May 27 2012 06:09 Mordanis wrote:
@Shiao
Why don't you pay more attention to Sciberia's accusation of Solstice then? Sciberia was certainly killed by mafia, was certainly town, and was logical. I just don't get why you pay more attention to Hegeo who was killed by the town because he was a bad townie (illogical). Care to explain why?
Maybe I should have posted my opinion on sciberbia's thoughts kind of got lost when I spent time catching up to the thread. After the post of hegeo I was pretty sure that he would be flipping town. Maybe it is sheeping solstice's reasons, but I see no reason for scum to act as hegeo did. Hegeo basically thought, okay I am dead better leave my best scumread behind even if it costs me the chance to defend myself. On another note it was in sciberbia's own quote: Show nested quote +"I looked through solstice's filter and didn't find anything else I had an issue with, so I'm not prepared to say he is definitely scum, but it really strikes me as something suspcious. Again, just wanted to put it out there in case I die."
It was not a "100%-convinced-of-it"-case as hegeo made his. I mean as I stated above, hegeo gave away his chance to make a reasonable defense for his case. Therefore I scrutinized it a lot more. Furthermore the mafia goals to shooting sciberbia have already outlined by me in this here: + Show Spoiler +On May 26 2012 00:35 ShiaoPi wrote:
Sorry for the lack of activity before but as it is life happens.
We just lost sciberbia so we probably should take a closer look on his filter:
It mainly consists of pressure against Milton and some rebuttals with Mordanis and to a lesser extent release. Just before getting shot he also has a slight suspicion of solstice.
What does mafia stand to gain from eliminating him?
-Silencing a good and contributing townie, who was pretty much a high townread (at least in my opinion)
-Removing Pressure off his targets
-Making people suspicious of his targets
Looking at it only the first point is a given the rest is probably close to WIFOM, but something to keep in mind following the discussion.
Regarding our choice of lynch for day we now have as reasonable candidates Release/Mordanis/Milton and myself (I guess). I'll share my thoughts on the whole Release/Mordanis issue later, just wanted to say that we should not forget sciberbias contributions even though he got shot (maybe it should be even closer scrutinized because he was shot) As I pointed out you can only gain limited information from a nightkill as only 1) Silencing good/contributing town is a given. A lynch on the other hand gives you the entire dayplay to consider when rereading the thread to get to know how we ended up with that situation. So in conclusion, I did consider sciberbia's last post but I did not consider it to be as "strong" as hegeo's last post. Furthermore s0lstice's play after the post in which he explained his accusations against me seem to me very townie. As it is my personal read, I simply chose not to make that much out of sciberbia's "last words". I hope this makes sense to you, otherwise ask away!
I just think you're over-romanticizing Hegeo's death. His construction of that accusation while ignoring everything else was a mistake IMO. Had he defended himself well, he could have made his accusation that night. His lynch was by no means written in stone, and some activity could easily have moved the lynch over to Milton. And I'm still so confused about the whole thing. I think he must have had the thread open to quote people and such, but he didn't look at what was happening? If for no other reason than to make a better case, I would imagine he would have to look at the latest posts. I think he may have even been able to avoid being lynched simply by saying something like "Hey, I'm working on a really solid case, brb!", or even posting the first few items. One of the things that contributed to him being lynched over Milton was the fact that he had no activity in the 14ish hours before the deadline. IDK, its just such a weird thing that happened. But I certainly don't see any reason to treat his post as holy writ. Summary: I don't see any reason to treat Hegeo's accusation as anything more than a case made by a confirmed townie.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
I did not say that I believe hegeos case to be "holy writ". I simply felt that comparing those two posts the difference is that hegeo posted a case, while sciberbia had a suspicion, which did not convince me. Hegeo's post clearly had quite an effort behind it and it did point out a tag-teamy feeling you two did give off for a while(at least in my humble opinion), so naturally I took a look at it and then shared my thoughts.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
EBWOP: so as in your terms: hegeo was case of a confirmed townie and sciberbia was suspicion of a confirmed townie. I believe that a case has a higher value than a suspicion
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EPT
