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Newbie Mini XIV - Page 18

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Mordanis
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States893 Posts
May 26 2012 22:45 GMT
#341
On May 27 2012 07:30 ShiaoPi wrote:
EBWOP: so as in your terms: hegeo was case of a confirmed townie and sciberbia was suspicion of a confirmed townie. I believe that a case has a higher value than a suspicion

And I believe that following logic is more important than either. Logically, I don't quite get Sciberia's suspicion of Solstice, and I also really don't get the logic from Hegeo's accusation. But this is enough, I don't feel this discussion is very helpful.
I love the smell of napalm in the morning... it smells like... victory. -_^ Favorite SC2 match ->Liquid`HerO vs. SlayerS CranK g.1 @MLG Summer Championship
Release
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4397 Posts
May 26 2012 23:15 GMT
#342
Unless golden posts some useful analysis before he gets lynched, i'll assume that he is scum and we have done well.
☺
Mordanis
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States893 Posts
May 26 2012 23:19 GMT
#343
So there are 7 people left, and we need 4 to lynch. So far we have
skware votes on release
golden votes on milton
milton votes on golden
solstice votes on golden
Shiaopi votes on golden
I vote on golden
Release votes on golden

So the totals are
Release (1): Skware
Milton (1) O.Golden_ne
O.Golden_ne (5): everyone else
I love the smell of napalm in the morning... it smells like... victory. -_^ Favorite SC2 match ->Liquid`HerO vs. SlayerS CranK g.1 @MLG Summer Championship
Release
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4397 Posts
May 26 2012 23:24 GMT
#344
is the lynch today or tomorrow? No sign of a night post yet. I was udner the asuumptio nthat 48hr day period, but general consensus is that lynch is in 5 minutes.
☺
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
May 26 2012 23:27 GMT
#345
On May 25 2012 08:32 VisceraEyes wrote:
Day 2
[image loading]


Twas the night before Friday and all through the house, not a creature was stirring…except for the two scummy bastards killing people. After a quick glance, you realize one of your member has indeed not joined you.

sciberbia the Vanilla Townie has been…taken care of.

You have ~48 hours from this post to decide who you wish to destroy next.


This post signaled the end of night 1 and the start of day 2. Posted on may 25th 08:32 KST.

it is now may 27th 08:26 KST. The lynch is definitely right now.
ATOBTTR
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21170 Posts
May 26 2012 23:34 GMT
#346
Deadline IS up - I'm tallying the votes as I type this.
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21170 Posts
May 26 2012 23:51 GMT
#347
Night 2

[image loading]


Determined to learn from their mistakes, the town spent down to the last minute discussing who should be eliminated. Finally a consensus was reached and a decision made. The noose didn't fit, after everything, so the townspeople chopped up, stomped on, set fire to and finally dissolved with acid the remains of their target. All that remained was a small wisp of green smoke.

O.Golden_ne the Vanilla Townie has been destroyed.

It is now Night 2. You have 23.75 hrs to send me your actions.

+ Show Spoiler +
Final Votecount:
Release (1): skware
Miltonkram (1): O.Golden_ne
O.Golden_ne (5): Miltonkram, s0Lstice, ShiaoPi, Mordanis, Release
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
Release
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4397 Posts
May 26 2012 23:57 GMT
#348
Milton, you're dead. If i survive until the end of the night, you are so dead. I gave the the Benefit of the doubt, but you are dead. I'll make sure to post my case before the night ends.
☺
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
May 26 2012 23:58 GMT
#349
Ugh, I don't even know what to say. I think this puts us at LYLO after the scum night kill.

I take responsibility for driving this, but I really thought we had something here.

ATOBTTR
Release
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4397 Posts
May 26 2012 23:59 GMT
#350
I guess golden was just too scared to make assertions. GG bro.
☺
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
May 27 2012 00:00 GMT
#351
gg and goodbye golden
ATOBTTR
ShiaoPi
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5956 Posts
May 27 2012 10:09 GMT
#352
Looking at the votecount and the fact that golden was townie we got at least one of the scum team on our vote. Which is pretty bad for us as we will most probably head into lylo after the night hit.
LiquidDota Staff@TW_ShiaoPi
TL+ Member
Release
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4397 Posts
May 27 2012 20:16 GMT
#353
On May 25 2012 08:17 Release wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 24 2012 00:45 Release wrote:
So right from the start, Milton acts like a Mafia:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 22 2012 16:02 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, just got in from work. I'll wait on pressuring people to see who is a lurker or inactive, but I'm hoping that won't be a big issue.

People who still haven't posted since the Day 1 post:
-Golden
-hegeo
-ShiaoPi

I'd really like these three players to check in at the very least, if not start to put some information out there.


Makes a post to exclude himself from the lurkers when he doesn't provide anything useful.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 22 2012 16:25 Miltonkram wrote:
Release- I like the way you're starting out this game. If we are going to catch scum we need to be aggressive about it. Don't worry too much about the tone of your posts. sciberbia's post does seem a bit suspicious. He repeats his ideas several times in different ways to make it look like he's putting out more info than he actually is. It seems quite scummy to me.

Mordanis- Don't get too offended by aggressive behavior. If mafia doesn't actually think that a little pressure will lead to a lynch, then why should they answer any questions at all? We need to make sure that people are held accountable to what they say.

sciberbia- What do you have to say about the accusations pointed at you? There's quite a bit of fluffy information in your post. Let's try to keep the conversation more focused on who might be scum, everything else is secondary.



Repeats ideas already mentioned and seems perfectly content to let Sciberia take some heat. This is very early so this post probably helped generate discussion but again, it wasn't anything new to us.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 22 2012 19:55 Miltonkram wrote:
This'll be my last post for a little while seeing as getting sleep is kind of important.

ShiaoPi- While sciberbia's posting content was a bit suspect, I wouldn't read too much into his absence. He did state in his post that he was about to get some sleep. Let's hear what he has to say.

Golden- This early in the game I think any town reads are going to be weak, so I don't see much value in posting them. We have to remember that mafia have 90% of the information here. Posting town reads can just cut into the 10% that they don't know. If there is a time when it's important that we post such information (e.g. we think we're about to die, we think the town is about to mislynch) then by all means post it, but right now is not one of those crucial times.


The 10% they don't know is the roles which townie/scum reads doesn't give them. You appear to be trying to trick us into stopping the townies from spreading useful information.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 23 2012 06:16 Miltonkram wrote:
Sciberbia- I don't really see a whole lot wrong with what I've posted. Everything I've written, including my suspicions of you, was with the goal to generate discussion. With that being said, admittedly I wasn't active at scumhunting because of the lack of information to work from.

With the discussion generated I think there is finally enough info for me to start making cases. I'm currently reading through people's filters and making notes on them. I'll post again soon with my scum reads. I'm getting more and more confident that I have a couple solid cases to make.


seems kind of like an excuse for a scum slip to me. This is very vague and you don't seem to have a goal with this post.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 23 2012 06:53 Miltonkram wrote:
Alright, I've got a case that I think has some merit.

s0Lstice

Show nested quote +
Miltonkram confuses me. You say you don't want people to share town reads because it's giving information to the mafia. What? Scum know who is town and who is not. Scumhunting is ALL ABOUT posting your reads on people. They are accused, and must defend. You smell fishy to me Milton.

##FOS: Miltonkram


Note that I'm not complaining about his suspicions of me. I think his suspicions are actually a good townie move. His statement about accusations and defense is really good too. This first post is consistent with good townie play. However, an hour later, without even waiting for my defense he posts:

Show nested quote +
I will be away for a few hours, but before I go I do think I read Milton's point the wrong way. It was: a townie posting a read of any kind, vs. a read declaring someone as town. I went with the former, which as sciberbia pointed out wasn't the intent.

I will..

## unFOS: Miltonkram

...for the time being. I'll go over his filter again when back, and see if I agree with sciberbia's latest post.


My point is he should have kept pressuring me. I realize that he misread my post somewhat, but he uses that last line of text to look like he's still pressuring me in some way. I think a townie would leave the FOS on me until I've actually done something to defend myself. Right now it seems like he's trying to apply just enough pressure to appear town, without actually committing to it. That's consistent with scum play in my eyes.

##FOS: s0Lstice


This post is interesting because Solstice does look inconsistent with his play. Milton calls him out but he doesn't

posting this now cause ran out of time. Will continue.

Show nested quote +
On May 24 2012 00:56 Release wrote:
EBWOP: ... Calls him out but he doesn't apply any REAL pressure. Not asking for a response of any kind. The FOS appears to be for courtesy rather than pressure.

At this point, SOlstice's defense appears to be much more solid than your accusations, which is saying something because accusations are typed without pressure whereas defenses are typed under pressure.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 23 2012 08:16 Miltonkram wrote:
I already had suspicions of ShiaoPi, but his latest "defense" just makes him feel more scummy in my eyes.

Show nested quote +
On May 23 2012 07:12 ShiaoPi wrote:
Regarding my "knee-jerk": I'll just quote my answer to hegeo:
+ Show Spoiler +

I believe it to be a good defense. It is Day 1, nobody is confirmed town until he flips, so why should I not throw the ball at you for a bit, while I answered your main question, which was "how come that you drop your suspicions on sciberba that easily?" That it came over slightly discrediting against you is part of it.

As it seemed like you checked the filters of everyone in terms of length. I see no logic behind building a case on a small filter size, when first of your own filter is not that big and secondly there are people with even smaller filters (see Mufaa).

Contributionwise I admit that there was not much from me yet. I gave my opinion on the cases others have posted and pointed out that we have a hardcore-lurker (which is more than just a "half-baked metacomment") right now. Really contributing as in lots of activity and some cases, are Release, sciberbia, hegeo and Mordanis. That makes 3 other people besides yourself, whose list of contributions is just as "meager" as mine and still you do not tunnel them. Why? Because of my small filter? But what about Mufaa's? Your argument of small filter = scum/should be pressured seems to go haywire with your case against me, so I naturally suspect you.


At this point ShiaoPi seems like he is just treading water. I think he's either bad town or panicking mafia. Please note the sections that I have bolded in his quote. He never addresses the fact that he's being attacked because his posts lack content. He keeps trying to focus attention on other players as a means of defending himself, rather than actually defending himself with content.

Then he makes a list of active players, in order to make himself look like he's accomplishing something. How much does that list actually accomplish? If you look over his filter, how many people has he actually put real pressure on? He put some very weak pressure on hegeo, only after Mordanis pressured him first. He's been gunning for Mufaa, a very easy player to gun for since he's lurking like crazy.

@ s0Lstice- Thank you for clearing up why you were suspicious of me. I'm still not sure you're town, but at the very least that clears up some of my suspicions. For now I'm lessening my focus on you and shifting it to ShiaoPi.

##unFOS: s0Lstice
##FOS: ShiaoPi


Plucking at straws. He realizes that his arguement against solstice is fruitless so he points the torch at ShaoPi. He concerns over defense when SHaoPi aims towards pointing out scum. In Mafia, pointing out scum is more valuable than hugging fellow townies. Why wouldn't you want him to point out scum? If he has a stronger case than your case against him, the town will lynch for his case, rather than yours, thus providing a strong defense. Your post is illogical.
The rest of the post is useless filler.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 23 2012 08:34 Miltonkram wrote:
Also, I think it's time we light a fire under Mufaa to get him posting.

@ Mufaa- If you want me to change my vote for you, you better get in here and start posting. It's really hard to have good town play if even one person is lurking.

##Vote: Mufaa

This is something I think everyone should keep in mind. We only have one player who is hardcore lurking. That means we have at least one mafia who is staying fairly active in the thread. I need some more time to think this line of thought through (What kind of active town benefits a mafia? What can we do to prevent that kind of town from happening?), but it's good to keep in mind when reading through a player's filter.


pure crap. Voting for the lurker on D1 is never a good idea when there are obvious scum targets at hand. Very wishy-washy with his constant change in thought. Trying to confuse the town?

i'll stop here because i ran out of time for real this time, but if i had to switch away from Hegeo, you would be my next target.

Milton, you scumbag, respond to these. From long time ago and you still haven't responded.
Too bad i was still focussed on Hegeo after i posted this... But that's what you wanted isn't it? You split the town's attention so that there would be two cases and i wouldn't focus as closely on one as i would the other.


On May 25 2012 11:34 Miltonkram wrote:
I'm going to be reading the filters for a while, so no posts from me for a bit. Right now my top scumreads are:

-ShiaoPi: I think he excuses his scummy play by calling it play style. He came into the game with lurker/defensive play in mind, and only after he realized such play wouldn't cut it did he really get active.

-Release/Mordanis: I'm not sure which one of these is scum, but I'm convinced that one of them used the other to cover their scumminess.

Lastly, I've defended my play here:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 23 2012 19:02
@ Golden- You raise several good points, and I will do my best to explain my line of thinking.

First you stated about me:
Show nested quote +
Just to state the facts. His first few points were very summary-esque. I'm wary of these sorts of posts early in game as it means a player can conceal their views and reveal them at a later date when real discussion is happening. It gives the impression that he is contributing whereas he is actually delaying input so to clutter later on.


The intention of my posts was to generate pressure and discussion. This being my first game, I felt that things such as the list I made and the pressure on sciberbia would be viewed as more threatening than they were actually taken. I believe s0Lstice used the term "weaksauce" to describe them, and looking back, I'm going to have to agree with him. In short, I think you're making a big deal out of some town play of mine that was admittedly less than stellar.

The next part of your post states:
Show nested quote +
he moves to pressure s0lstice. (after s0lstice posted, then removed his #FOS) in what i see as a defensive measure under the "rationale" that s0lstice should have continued with his pressure.
it is my opinion that he did this to cement his 'innocence' by 'promoting' a more thorough pressuring in future.

next.

after his accusation of s0lstice (FOR ALTERNATING HIS #FOS TO QUICKLY) do you know what he does? His next post in his filter is moving his defensive #FOS against s0lstice (quite hypocritically i might add) onto another player (ShiaoPi).


This next part is actually kind of funny, it was a reading comprehension error on my part, a reading comprehension error of his reading comprehension error. I thought it was crazy how flimsy his FOS was, I feel a bit stupid now that I realize what he was saying. Essentially, I did the exact same thing to him that he did to me.

As for the last part of your post towards me:
Show nested quote +
he avoids his next suspicion (ShiaoPi) and jumps on a bandwagon of voting against Mufaa. (which i'm fine with, except for the context its in)

I feel that Miltonkram's play is quite scummy.


I want you to know that I am still gunning for ShiaoPi. I hope we don't have to lynch Mufaa, but he needs to know that my vote for him will stand until he starts posting or I think he'll get modkilled/replaced. Right now, I'm going to continue pressuring ShiaoPi. Even if we don't lynch him today, our late game will be much better if we can get him to post something other than his wishy-washy defensive play.

If you still have a problem with my defense that's fine. Quite honestly, I'm kind of expecting to get lynched tonight anyway. Maybe when/if I get lynched it will be for the best and people will actually take my accusations seriously, but I'm going to continue to play the best I can no matter what. I'll be back in a little while.


i think your defense is shit. Do it again, properly, or My vote is going to be on you and is not going to change unless some claims to be sum with a case on themselves.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 24 2012 02:54 Miltonkram wrote:
Regarding people's suspicions of me.

I've already explained my line of reasoning. My pressure on s0Lstice was a mistake on my part, simple as that. I'm willing to switch my vote on Mufaa, since I think he will be replaced/modkilled. All people had been saying up to that point in time amounted to, "Mufaa, we'd really like to hear from you." I wanted to see if he would make a response to some real pressure. I think we can agree that voting for someone is the most pressure you can put on them. At the time I was trying to do two things at once, pressure ShiaoPi and pressure Mufaa. I guess I didn't make it clear what I was doing. Also, I hadn't considered this:
Show nested quote +
---snip
Also, get your votes off Mufaa. He will be replaced/modkilled if he doesn't do crap. Otherwise, we can lynch him D2.

He's guaranteed to be lynched D2 if he does pop in to vote, so I won't concern myself with him anymore.

My top scumread is still ShiaoPi. Essentially, he plays scum exactly how I would. His entire D1 posts have been pretty wishy-washy and noncommittal, allowing him freedom later in the game because he hasn't actually tied himself strongly to the information or accusations in any of his posts. With that in mind let's look at his first post.
+ Show Spoiler +
Just came back from university.

First of all we should definetly go for a lynch, no-lynch is (at least in my opinion) utter nonsense.
Regarding Lurkers, I believe that they should be put under suspicion especially in a 9 player setup. I was in the same game as mufaa and lurking screwed us over pretty badly in a 13 player game.

I must say I really like release's approach until now, we won't get anything worthwhile from just being nice to each other. Pressuring is a great way to get some more information and should be utilizied.

The only slightly suspicious thing until now was sciberbia's long post and his absence since then, but until he responds there is nothing to make of it.

Here's what he does, he compliments the most active player early on (Release) and talks about playstyle. Then he adds some weak suspicions toward sciberbia. Suspicion that he can easily back down from, and that certainly isn't breaking any new ground. Wait, doesn't this sound a lot like another early post?
+ Show Spoiler +
Release- I like the way you're starting out this game. If we are going to catch scum we need to be aggressive about it. Don't worry too much about the tone of your posts. sciberbia's post does seem a bit suspicious. He repeats his ideas several times in different ways to make it look like he's putting out more info than he actually is. It seems quite scummy to me.

Mordanis- Don't get too offended by aggressive behavior. If mafia doesn't actually think that a little pressure will lead to a lynch, then why should they answer any questions at all? We need to make sure that people are held accountable to what they say.

sciberbia- What do you have to say about the accusations pointed at you? There's quite a bit of fluffy information in your post. Let's try to keep the conversation more focused on who might be scum, everything else is secondary.

That's right, his entire first post is a rehash of one of my first posts. A post I made before him. If my first post wasn't breaking any new ground, his certainly wasn't. It seems a good way to blend in with the crowd without sticking his neck out there. He goes on to immediately back down from his pressure with this post.
+ Show Spoiler +
Maybe I should have rephrased my post on the suspicions towards you Sciberbia:

I was not that much concerned about your absence but just on the amount of seemingly "useless" things within the post. Don't see anything wrong with your elaborations on it now.

Here we get the first taste of ShiaoPi's tactic. He pressures someone and then states, "Oh, I wasn't actually pressuring you." It seems like a good way to blend in while also "contributing" as scum. This is just the first instance of his noncommittal aggression.

Let's look at his suspicions of hegeo.
+ Show Spoiler +
I am unsure what to make of hegeo. The one thing which seems suspicious to me is his timing after being called out, the other stuff could easily be bad townie or careful day 1 play. Seeing that I am getting flak for my style it is easy to see why he gets thoroughly investigated now.

What stands out from his posts is the analytical part. It seems to be lacking solidity to make the longer posts which he does not really support (see: + Show Spoiler +)

Basing from this statement he must himself believe to have solid cases going with his "wall of texts", but in my opinion they are not solid at all.
Show nested quote +

Once again this is "suspicion" that he doesn't actually have to commit to, and he hopes he won't be held accountable for.

I would ask you all this, who would be more damaging as scum? The actions I've taken in the game have all been actions that I've committed to. (barring the mistake I made with s0Lstice, but that was just me being dumb.) You can actually tie me to what I've written and hold me accountable later in the game, whereas ShiaoPi seems to have some sort of "escape clause" in almost every single one of his posts. The only thing he's been adamant about has been his FOS of s0Lstice, and that pressure has a built in escape to it, seeing as he can excuse himself by saying that s0Lstice had pressured him first.

Anyway, what are people's thoughts on this? Seeing as I'll be away for an hour or two I'm going to go ahead and vote.

##unVote: Mufaa
##Vote: ShiaoPi

you switch away and point out the obvious about Mufaa. Not useful at all, except that it stops people from accusing you of being obvious scum.

ShiaoPi was being fair to sciberia, if anything. It was pretty much the first content post and clearly, sciberia was inexperienced and had questions to ask us.

Ok, so you point out that SHiaoPi repeated your arguement. That's fair, but if you criticize him, go criticize yourself too.

Sciberia was new to the game. he flipped town which confirms that his questions were a valid attempt to understand the game and ShiaoPi clearly just trying to see how Sciberia responds.

I'll admit here that ShiaoPi is very noncommital, but i think your are being quite overcommital with your vote based on this case that you could almost apply to yourself.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 24 2012 07:39 Miltonkram wrote:
ShiaoPi, I did not deliberately disregard your later posts. However, real life has gotten in the way of me posting more content and my follow up analysis of your later posts was left undone. Suffice to say, I think what you call play style is actually your built in excuse for your scummy behavior. I think the healthy town atmosphere has forced you to be more active than you originally planned, and only after you were pressured by s0Lstice and myself did you begin to post decent, but not good, content. If I may sum up your play style for the sake of time:

-Lurk until there is pressure on you
-Respond to pressure with mostly defensive statements
-When that doesn't work, begin to put counter-pressure on your attacker
-Bandwagon on me once you see that I'm a prime lynch

I'd post more direct analysis, but once again, time is running short.

Everyone, I hope you can figure out why this is scummy activity in my eyes. If I get lynched today, I hope you keep this in mind. The pressure seems to be off ShiaoPi right now, so unless I can miraculously convince you all to vote for him I guess I'll have to switch my targets.

Here you try to apply some stereotypical Scum characteristics on him without too much elaboration. No time? I might have given you that if you posted an analysis after that post but i can't find any. You suddenly seem to have dropped his case. That is scummy

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 24 2012 07:54 Miltonkram wrote:
Very well, I don't like making this move, but if we lynch hegeo, there is at least a small chance of him being mafia.

##unVote: ShiaoPi
##Vote: hegeo

For the record, if you lynch me and see me flip town, that doesn't mean hegeo is mafia. Too much of his case has been circumstantial, and too much of it has been just a few vocal players tunneling him.

If you don't believe hegeo was scum, don't vote him. But you seem keen on joining the bandwagon for him. Also, no analysis here: so you don't have to defend yourself against false analysis and to claim that you just want a majority vote.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 25 2012 06:12 Miltonkram wrote:
I think we all need to take a step back and look at the events of D1 a little more logically and less reactively. Why would a scum team both tunnel the same player? The only thing we're sure of is that hegeo flipped town, that doesn't make his analysis correct, anymore than it makes it incorrect. That being said, since Release and Mordanis were the two to put the most pressure on hegeo, I'd like to analyze their play under all possible circumstances.

Mafia + Mafia
Why would a scum team link their names D1 of the game? I think we all agree that Mordanis and Release were the most vocal against hegeo, and that could mean they tunneled him because they saw him as a weak target that they wouldn't get much flak for going against. If they are both scum, this is the most likely explanation of their actions. However, I just don't see a good enough reason for scum to band together on D1. That's a short-sighted play that would come back to bite them in the ass later. Possibility: least likely.

Townie + Townie
If both players were indeed town, an explanation of their actions could be that they just weren't ever satisfied with hegeo's defense. Let's face it, hegeo did not do a good job of defending himself. If he had, I would be the one lynched and he'd still be alive. So far, besides their knee-jerk reactions to hegeo's post, I'd say that they both have had decent, but not great town play. The bad news is, they've both played really scummy ever since hegeo's big reveal. Possibility: still unlikely, but more likely than M + M.

Townie + Mafia
Here's how I think it happened. The townie player felt he had a good case against his percieved scum target, and was encouraged that others felt the same way. The scum player knew he wouldn't be the only one targeted when hegeo flipped town and thus pulled the trigger and kept pressure on him. Worst case scenario for the scum player is a 50/50 situation where both he and the townie player are under pressure. Possibility: most likely situation.

That is my read on last night's events. The good news is I think we have the scum player in the worst possible situation. A 50/50 lynch is still better than a 2/7 lynch. I'm going to go over both Mordanis' and Release's filters to see what kind of a case can be made against them. I've been thinking a lot about these events and I think my analysis is pretty good. Thoughts on this anyone?

we've been over this: too many assumptions, an attempt to fool the town.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 25 2012 10:20 Miltonkram wrote:
@ Release- Misinformation? Where? All I'm trying to do is explain the assumption that I'll be working from as I analyze you and Mordanis's posts. In my post I was stating all the possibilities so that I could begin eliminating those possibilities that are less likely. From this point on, I am assuming that between the two of you (Release, Mordanis), I'm pretty sure one of you is scum and one of you is town.

Let me restate this plainly: I don't think both of you are mafia. I don't think both of you are town. I think one of you is mafia and one of you is town.

I believe this for the reasons I stated in my last long post.

Show nested quote +

On May 25 2012 08:13 Release wrote:
---snip
Just answering the last part first: 2/7? You really think that a lynch is completely random? Trying to draw the town away from doing a real case on someone like you( who already has a substantial case) so they can get that 50/50 lynch?
Remember D1: we had a 50/50 lynch (in the town's eyes, it was 100/0 because both seemed scummy, but my point is that there were 2 candidates). Stop trying to trick others with the same illusions that Hegeo did; it's what got him lynched.
This is so full of shit and scum.
No, of course I don't think lynching is completely random. I was shortening my reasoning because it wasn't the main thrust of my post. If we did just flip a coin deciding to lynch you or Mordanis, I say we'd have a 50/50 chance to hit mafia. We can do better than that though, with good analysis we'll find out which one of you is scum.


On May 25 2012 08:13 Release wrote:
---snip
And so what if we pressured him? He seemed scummy. We're supposed to pressure scummy players. If we didn't, we would have your dream random lynch scenario where a townie is more likely lynched. You would love that wouldn't you?

Your case was the alternative to Hegeo's case. We chose him and we seemed to have forgotten about you. I haven't. If i'm still alive after the day post, you better watch yourself.

##FOS: Milton
Holy crap, stop playing so defensively. I'm not even sure if you're the half of the duo that's scum. I'm just laying the groundwork for my analysis of your (you and Mordanis's) posting. Also stop labeling any analysis you disagree with as WIFOM. I think you may be the one who doesn't understand its definition.

Since Release seems impervious to reason, I'll put this out to the rest of the town. I don't care if you think I'm scum or not, the points I made in my post were good ones. Do you disagree with the assumptions I'm making? If you do it's best to speak up now, because I plan on basing my later analysis on these assumptions.


an assumption based defense; scummy

Accusing me of labeling analysis as WIFOM. Your assumptions absolutely were WIFOM because there is nothing concrete to go by.

+ Show Spoiler +
[QUOTE]On May 25 2012 11:34 Miltonkram wrote:
I'm going to be reading the filters for a while, so no posts from me for a bit. Right now my top scumreads are:

-ShiaoPi: I think he excuses his scummy play by calling it play style. He came into the game with lurker/defensive play in mind, and only after he realized such play wouldn't cut it did he really get active.

-Release/Mordanis: I'm not sure which one of these is scum, but I'm convinced that one of them used the other to cover their scumminess.

Lastly, I've defended my play here:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 23 2012 19:02
@ Golden- You raise several good points, and I will do my best to explain my line of thinking.

First you stated about me:
Show nested quote +
Just to state the facts. His first few points were very summary-esque. I'm wary of these sorts of posts early in game as it means a player can conceal their views and reveal them at a later date when real discussion is happening. It gives the impression that he is contributing whereas he is actually delaying input so to clutter later on.

The intention of my posts was to generate pressure and discussion. This being my first game, I felt that things such as the list I made and the pressure on sciberbia would be viewed as more threatening than they were actually taken. I believe s0Lstice used the term "weaksauce" to describe them, and looking back, I'm going to have to agree with him. In short, I think you're making a big deal out of some town play of mine that was admittedly less than stellar.

The next part of your post states:
he moves to pressure s0lstice. (after s0lstice posted, then removed his #FOS) in what i see as a defensive measure under the "rationale" that s0lstice should have continued with his pressure.
it is my opinion that he did this to cement his 'innocence' by 'promoting' a more thorough pressuring in future.

next.

after his accusation of s0lstice (FOR ALTERNATING HIS #FOS TO QUICKLY) do you know what he does? His next post in his filter is moving his defensive #FOS against s0lstice (quite hypocritically i might add) onto another player (ShiaoPi).

This next part is actually kind of funny, it was a reading comprehension error on my part, a reading comprehension error of his reading comprehension error. I thought it was crazy how flimsy his FOS was, I feel a bit stupid now that I realize what he was saying. Essentially, I did the exact same thing to him that he did to me.

As for the last part of your post towards me:
he avoids his next suspicion (ShiaoPi) and jumps on a bandwagon of voting against Mufaa. (which i'm fine with, except for the context its in)

I feel that Miltonkram's play is quite scummy.


I want you to know that I am still gunning for ShiaoPi. I hope we don't have to lynch Mufaa, but he needs to know that my vote for him will stand until he starts posting or I think he'll get modkilled/replaced. Right now, I'm going to continue pressuring ShiaoPi. Even if we don't lynch him today, our late game will be much better if we can get him to post something other than his wishy-washy defensive play.

If you still have a problem with my defense that's fine. Quite honestly, I'm kind of expecting to get lynched tonight anyway. Maybe when/if I get lynched it will be for the best and people will actually take my accusations seriously, but I'm going to continue to play the best I can no matter what. I'll be back in a little while.

suddenly you seem to have remembered your case on ShiaoPi after the lynch. Why not keep pushing his case until the very end if you actually believed that he was scum?

and from here, you make some statements on Mordanis and I that have since been addressed so i won't go over again.

+ Show Spoiler +
[QUOTE]On May 27 2012 03:59 Miltonkram wrote:
We need to come to a consensus on skware quickly. We have less than 5 hours until deadline. skware is a pure policy lynch at this point, we simply don't have enough information to make a case for him or against him. Since he stated that he likely won't be back until after the deadline we need to plan for the worst case scenario, that he won't make it back in time.

We don't gain much info from him if he flips either way, under that line of reasoning he could very well be scum. Thoughts?

Golden's defense does not satisfy me, and that leads me to believe he's having difficulty figuring out a way to defend his actions. With that in mind

##Vote: O.Golden_ne

If we decide that skware is the policy lynch I will switch my vote to him. Mordanis, I want to hear a defense from you, otherwise I will consider switching my vote to you.

A vote on Golden as well as some random talk about lynching Skware. Like with mufaa, we don't need to worry about Skware until he disappears and probably gets modkilled.

Then, you make a sentence which essentially gives you an opportunity to jump on a Mordanis bandwagon, should it start.


So, if i die tonight, i beg that you lynch Milton. Lynch him to hell.
☺
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
May 27 2012 21:39 GMT
#354
@ Release- I'll post a full defense when I get the time/if I'm still alive, but there are a few points where your logic is sadly lacking.

---snip
If you don't believe hegeo was scum, don't vote him. But you seem keen on joining the bandwagon for him. Also, no analysis here: so you don't have to defend yourself against false analysis and to claim that you just want a majority vote.

This is pure bullshit. Why would I want the town to mislynch me? The only two cases with real weight behind them at the time were mine and hegeo's. I didn't think hegeo's case was great, but with the town so divided, voting for him was still better than a no-lynch. There was still the possibility in my mind that he was mafia so why take actions, such as not voting for him, that would automatically get me lynched? If my play was good town play, I would vote for hegeo. If my play was good scum play, I would vote for hegeo. This holds no water.

---snip
A vote on Golden as well as some random talk about lynching Skware. Like with mufaa, we don't need to worry about Skware until he disappears and probably gets modkilled.

Then, you make a sentence which essentially gives you an opportunity to jump on a Mordanis bandwagon, should it start.

I thought Golden's case was the more likely one. Do I wish I'd voted on Mordanis now? Hell yes, but that doesn't change the fact that Golden's play and his defense were seriously lacking.

Also, why would you assume that skware is getting modkilled when he's posted and he's voted? He's not getting modkilled therefore we actually have to pay attention to him. That's why I posted what I did. We've put off a lurker lynch for two days and it's coming back to bite us in the ass. If he's mafia, we've let him off the hook for two days in a row. I don't think it's bad play to assume he counted on that.

Your case against me is a good deal worse than many of the cases you've made in the past. I don't really understand it but I will do my best to refute it when I have the time.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
May 27 2012 21:41 GMT
#355
GG Golden, let your voice be heard next time
Release
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States4397 Posts
May 27 2012 23:24 GMT
#356
Nothing happening during the night
We should not waste entire nights like these doing nothing.

Don't go shooting yourself in the foot by posting a few responses. There is still a large amount of scummy play in there.
Half assed posting is exactly what got Hegeo lynched. Don't repeat his mistakes.
☺
Mordanis
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States893 Posts
May 27 2012 23:28 GMT
#357
I think its much more likely that I'll be killed tonight than I had to be killed N1. That being said, I hope eveyone will take this post into consideration. It's starting to look like its time for a policy lynch. We don't know anything about skware/Mufaa, and therefore there is no solid case that can be made against him(them). He/They has/have forced us to at least consider a lynch. It's sad that this game might go down to a pure luck situation, but I don't know what else to do.

@Release: baiting a mafia kp is probably the dumbest thing you can do. It makes your accusation seem like something that you wrote up just to pressure one player, and if it gains no information. Whether Milton is actually scum or not is not shown by baiting a kp. If he is, letting you live might make him seem more like town. If he isn't though, killing him might make the obvious case be against milton. On the other hand, If he's scum killing you would silence pressure against him. And if he's not scum, letting you live could also add to the conspiracy. It all leads to massive WIFOM, bringing confusion to the town.
I love the smell of napalm in the morning... it smells like... victory. -_^ Favorite SC2 match ->Liquid`HerO vs. SlayerS CranK g.1 @MLG Summer Championship
VisceraEyes
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States21170 Posts
May 27 2012 23:32 GMT
#358
Day 3
[image loading]


Town's slumber was troubled as the image of the Golden One's last moments persisted even into their dreams. It was as if they could still hear the echos of his mind's scream all through the night. In the morning, yet again, one of their company was not present. A quick scan of the Town found no trace of their companion - only a smear of green blood down one of the alleys.

s0Lstice the Vanilla Townie sleeps with the fishes.

It is now Day 3. You have ~48 hours to decide who you want to destroy and vote accordingly.
if I had to describe his playstyle, it'd be a coked up rabbit with the attention of a goldfish injecting caffeine into himself directly through an IV drip. it's like a reel of random animated shorts where things just blow up randomly
Mordanis
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States893 Posts
May 27 2012 23:38 GMT
#359
Damnit. As I already said though, no information from mafia not taking the bait from Release.......
I love the smell of napalm in the morning... it smells like... victory. -_^ Favorite SC2 match ->Liquid`HerO vs. SlayerS CranK g.1 @MLG Summer Championship
s0Lstice
Profile Joined August 2009
United States1832 Posts
May 28 2012 00:22 GMT
#360
gg and good luck guys. wish i had been of more help.
ATOBTTR
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