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@skware
Welcome to the game 
@Release
I don't think my actions require a lot of explaining. If you read over the posts, you'll see I was working hard to promote objectives of the town: decide who we think as a group is the most scummy and lynch them. I focused the conversation on hegeo and milton, the 2 most likely lynch candidates. If hegeo had made his giant post 15 minutes earlier, I probably would have pushed milton, but with 5 minutes left? I don't see how you can hold it against me for helping to organize a lynch on someone who we all (especially you) thought was suspicious.
@Release
@Golden
I didn't appreciate that you guys were unavailable around the deadline. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you had important things to do, but a townie would have strong interest to make sure we get a good lynch. Being absent during voting is more consistent with mafia objectives: not caring who gets lynch as long as its not mafia. And if its a no-lynch, even better. Does anyone else see this as suspicious?
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skware: welcome to the game. I'm a little terrified that if you are mafia, you had a free day of lurking ;D
It's going to be a busy day at work for me so I'll be out of action until late afternoon/early evening. My plan for then is to have a long look at hegeo's final accusation post and the corresponding defense posts.
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@Sciberia
MEntioned it twice now. Busy with RL. Don't turn this into WIFOM.
We had a majority, did we not? (5/9)
WHy would you ask for the others to join us as well? If they didn't and we suddenly had a nolynch, we instantly know who is scum. THere is just no point for doing this considering how far away we are from LYLO.
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EBWOP:+ Show Spoiler + I was the one trying to get a later deadline. 7PM EST i would get back. Unfortunately, something popped up. So i got back later.
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On May 25 2012 00:14 Release wrote:
@Sciberia
MEntioned it twice now. Busy with RL. Don't turn this into WIFOM.
We had a majority, did we not? (5/9)
WHy would you ask for the others to join us as well? If they didn't and we suddenly had a nolynch, we instantly know who is scum. THere is just no point for doing this considering how far away we are from LYLO.
Nolynch is preferable to lynching a blue. The fact that you disagree with that is pretty scummy.
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@Release
I guess the question is: if somebody had jumped off the bandwagon, does that help town? Obviously it does if he is blue, but we of course didn't know that at the time. I don't think the answer is so clear-cut. If you disagree, that's fine. I'm just explaining what I was thinking at the time. It was a little hectic and I had one clear goal in mind: get a lynch on hegeo/milton by 7:30.
I still fail to see how my actions implicate me as mafia. Will you please either rescind your accusation against me or tell me what mafia motive you think I have for getting a 6th vote on hegeo?
@skware
Are you talking to me or release? I don't see where either of us claimed that lynching a blue is better than no-lynch. Please explain.
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@sciberia i was refering to this back and forth
If hegeo had made his giant post 15 minutes earlier, I probably would have pushed milton, but with 5 minutes left? I don't see how you can hold it against me for helping to organize a lynch on someone who we all (especially you) thought was suspicious.
and
We had a majority, did we not? (5/9)
WHy would you ask for the others to join us as well? If they didn't and we suddenly had a nolynch, we instantly know who is scum. THere is just no point for doing this considering how far away we are from LYLO.
Where release says he wouldnt have been for changing his vote even if hegeo's post had come out earlier.
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On May 25 2012 00:56 skware wrote:Show nested quote +On May 25 2012 00:14 Release wrote:
@Sciberia
MEntioned it twice now. Busy with RL. Don't turn this into WIFOM.
We had a majority, did we not? (5/9)
WHy would you ask for the others to join us as well? If they didn't and we suddenly had a nolynch, we instantly know who is scum. THere is just no point for doing this considering how far away we are from LYLO. Nolynch is preferable to lynching a blue. The fact that you disagree with that is pretty scummy.
where did i mention i wanted to lynch a blue? You aren't contributing by posting random shit.
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EBWOP: I wouldn't change my vote because hegeo was suspected scum. Why would i change my vote based on what scum says?
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@sciberia
On May 24 2012 08:05 ShiaoPi wrote:
So with all the switches we are now at
Milton: Me
Hegeo: Release, Mordanis, sciberbia, solstice, milton
Mufaa: hegeo
Not-voting: Golden, Mufaa
I do admit Hegeo's absence is highly suspicious although it may be timezonerelated it is 1:00AM right now in CEST. But he had plenty of time beforehand.
so let's say ShiaoPi is townie (for this case) and switches to hegeo. hegeo 6. Then milton switches and hegeo 5. Milton could claim that he is just screwing around because the majority is still there. Then ShiaoPi (or whoever else) has a change of heart and switches back to whom he has suspected all along and continued to suspect. That would leave ShiaoPi with a lot of suspicion and Miilton with less.
I haven't acused you yet. Merely pointing suspicion.
+ Show Spoiler +I don't see why everyone gets so defensive at suspicion. This applies to everyone. Doesn't help the town to hold your nuts so tightly.
I still say we look at milton because he still has a substantial case against him.
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I think we all need to take a step back and look at the events of D1 a little more logically and less reactively. Why would a scum team both tunnel the same player? The only thing we're sure of is that hegeo flipped town, that doesn't make his analysis correct, anymore than it makes it incorrect. That being said, since Release and Mordanis were the two to put the most pressure on hegeo, I'd like to analyze their play under all possible circumstances.
Mafia + Mafia
Why would a scum team link their names D1 of the game? I think we all agree that Mordanis and Release were the most vocal against hegeo, and that could mean they tunneled him because they saw him as a weak target that they wouldn't get much flak for going against. If they are both scum, this is the most likely explanation of their actions. However, I just don't see a good enough reason for scum to band together on D1. That's a short-sighted play that would come back to bite them in the ass later. Possibility: least likely.
Townie + Townie
If both players were indeed town, an explanation of their actions could be that they just weren't ever satisfied with hegeo's defense. Let's face it, hegeo did not do a good job of defending himself. If he had, I would be the one lynched and he'd still be alive. So far, besides their knee-jerk reactions to hegeo's post, I'd say that they both have had decent, but not great town play. The bad news is, they've both played really scummy ever since hegeo's big reveal. Possibility: still unlikely, but more likely than M + M.
Townie + Mafia
Here's how I think it happened. The townie player felt he had a good case against his percieved scum target, and was encouraged that others felt the same way. The scum player knew he wouldn't be the only one targeted when hegeo flipped town and thus pulled the trigger and kept pressure on him. Worst case scenario for the scum player is a 50/50 situation where both he and the townie player are under pressure. Possibility: most likely situation.
That is my read on last night's events. The good news is I think we have the scum player in the worst possible situation. A 50/50 lynch is still better than a 2/7 lynch. I'm going to go over both Mordanis' and Release's filters to see what kind of a case can be made against them. I've been thinking a lot about these events and I think my analysis is pretty good. Thoughts on this anyone?
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On May 25 2012 06:12 Miltonkram wrote:
I think we all need to take a step back and look at the events of D1 a little more logically and less reactively. Why would a scum team both tunnel the same player? The only thing we're sure of is that hegeo flipped town, that doesn't make his analysis correct, anymore than it makes it incorrect. That being said, since Release and Mordanis were the two to put the most pressure on hegeo, I'd like to analyze their play under all possible circumstances.
Mafia + Mafia
Why would a scum team link their names D1 of the game? I think we all agree that Mordanis and Release were the most vocal against hegeo, and that could mean they tunneled him because they saw him as a weak target that they wouldn't get much flak for going against. If they are both scum, this is the most likely explanation of their actions. However, I just don't see a good enough reason for scum to band together on D1. That's a short-sighted play that would come back to bite them in the ass later. Possibility: least likely.
Townie + Townie
If both players were indeed town, an explanation of their actions could be that they just weren't ever satisfied with hegeo's defense. Let's face it, hegeo did not do a good job of defending himself. If he had, I would be the one lynched and he'd still be alive. So far, besides their knee-jerk reactions to hegeo's post, I'd say that they both have had decent, but not great town play. The bad news is, they've both played really scummy ever since hegeo's big reveal. Possibility: still unlikely, but more likely than M + M.
Townie + Mafia
Here's how I think it happened. The townie player felt he had a good case against his percieved scum target, and was encouraged that others felt the same way. The scum player knew he wouldn't be the only one targeted when hegeo flipped town and thus pulled the trigger and kept pressure on him. Worst case scenario for the scum player is a 50/50 situation where both he and the townie player are under pressure. Possibility: most likely situation.
That is my read on last night's events. The good news is I think we have the scum player in the worst possible situation. A 50/50 lynch is still better than a 2/7 lynch. I'm going to go over both Mordanis' and Release's filters to see what kind of a case can be made against them. I've been thinking a lot about these events and I think my analysis is pretty good. Thoughts on this anyone?
Just answering the last part first: 2/7? You really think that a lynch is completely random? Trying to draw the town away from doing a real case on someone like you( who already has a substantial case) so they can get that 50/50 lynch?
Remember D1: we had a 50/50 lynch (in the town's eyes, it was 100/0 because both seemed scummy, but my point is that there were 2 candidates). Stop trying to trick others with the same illusions that Hegeo did; it's what got him lynched.
This is so full of shit and scum.
Mafia + Mafia: No. I have already posted on what the Mafia were actually doing when i was roasting hegeo:
The Mafia were trying to split our attention between two cases (Hegeo vs Milton/ShiaoPi/Solstice). Then you post some WIFOM filler (not a big deal since you actually posted some analysis)
Townie + Townie: Who's been playing scummy since hegeo's reveal? Mordanis knee-jerked, not me.
I posted an analytical response to hegeo's post and why the new guy was playing rather poorly. Also, i was the only one to point out that Hegeo's post mysteriously did not have a #5.
Townie + Mafia: Mordanis and i both had our own separate cases against Hegeo. There was a small overlap, but we had our own ideas, just against the same person. When that happens, it tends to look bad for that person.
Note that i am not refuting either of TT or TM yet, just pointing out the misinformation you are posting.
And so what if we pressured him? He seemed scummy. We're supposed to pressure scummy players. If we didn't, we would have your dream random lynch scenario where a townie is more likely lynched. You would love that wouldn't you?
Your case was the alternative to Hegeo's case. We chose him and we seemed to have forgotten about you. I haven't. If i'm still alive after the day post, you better watch yourself.
##FOS: Milton
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On May 24 2012 00:45 Release wrote:So right from the start, Milton acts like a Mafia: + Show Spoiler +On May 22 2012 16:02 Miltonkram wrote:
Hey all, just got in from work. I'll wait on pressuring people to see who is a lurker or inactive, but I'm hoping that won't be a big issue.
People who still haven't posted since the Day 1 post:
-Golden
-hegeo
-ShiaoPi
I'd really like these three players to check in at the very least, if not start to put some information out there. Makes a post to exclude himself from the lurkers when he doesn't provide anything useful. + Show Spoiler +On May 22 2012 16:25 Miltonkram wrote:
Release- I like the way you're starting out this game. If we are going to catch scum we need to be aggressive about it. Don't worry too much about the tone of your posts. sciberbia's post does seem a bit suspicious. He repeats his ideas several times in different ways to make it look like he's putting out more info than he actually is. It seems quite scummy to me.
Mordanis- Don't get too offended by aggressive behavior. If mafia doesn't actually think that a little pressure will lead to a lynch, then why should they answer any questions at all? We need to make sure that people are held accountable to what they say.
sciberbia- What do you have to say about the accusations pointed at you? There's quite a bit of fluffy information in your post. Let's try to keep the conversation more focused on who might be scum, everything else is secondary.
Repeats ideas already mentioned and seems perfectly content to let Sciberia take some heat. This is very early so this post probably helped generate discussion but again, it wasn't anything new to us. + Show Spoiler +On May 22 2012 19:55 Miltonkram wrote:
This'll be my last post for a little while seeing as getting sleep is kind of important.
ShiaoPi- While sciberbia's posting content was a bit suspect, I wouldn't read too much into his absence. He did state in his post that he was about to get some sleep. Let's hear what he has to say.
Golden- This early in the game I think any town reads are going to be weak, so I don't see much value in posting them. We have to remember that mafia have 90% of the information here. Posting town reads can just cut into the 10% that they don't know. If there is a time when it's important that we post such information (e.g. we think we're about to die, we think the town is about to mislynch) then by all means post it, but right now is not one of those crucial times. The 10% they don't know is the roles which townie/scum reads doesn't give them. You appear to be trying to trick us into stopping the townies from spreading useful information. + Show Spoiler +On May 23 2012 06:16 Miltonkram wrote:
Sciberbia- I don't really see a whole lot wrong with what I've posted. Everything I've written, including my suspicions of you, was with the goal to generate discussion. With that being said, admittedly I wasn't active at scumhunting because of the lack of information to work from.
With the discussion generated I think there is finally enough info for me to start making cases. I'm currently reading through people's filters and making notes on them. I'll post again soon with my scum reads. I'm getting more and more confident that I have a couple solid cases to make. seems kind of like an excuse for a scum slip to me. This is very vague and you don't seem to have a goal with this post. + Show Spoiler +On May 23 2012 06:53 Miltonkram wrote:Alright, I've got a case that I think has some merit. s0LsticeShow nested quote +Miltonkram confuses me. You say you don't want people to share town reads because it's giving information to the mafia. What? Scum know who is town and who is not. Scumhunting is ALL ABOUT posting your reads on people. They are accused, and must defend. You smell fishy to me Milton.
##FOS: Miltonkram Note that I'm not complaining about his suspicions of me. I think his suspicions are actually a good townie move. His statement about accusations and defense is really good too. This first post is consistent with good townie play. However, an hour later, without even waiting for my defense he posts: Show nested quote +I will be away for a few hours, but before I go I do think I read Milton's point the wrong way. It was: a townie posting a read of any kind, vs. a read declaring someone as town. I went with the former, which as sciberbia pointed out wasn't the intent.
I will..
## unFOS: Miltonkram
...for the time being. I'll go over his filter again when back, and see if I agree with sciberbia's latest post. My point is he should have kept pressuring me. I realize that he misread my post somewhat, but he uses that last line of text to look like he's still pressuring me in some way. I think a townie would leave the FOS on me until I've actually done something to defend myself. Right now it seems like he's trying to apply just enough pressure to appear town, without actually committing to it. That's consistent with scum play in my eyes. ##FOS: s0Lstice This post is interesting because Solstice does look inconsistent with his play. Milton calls him out but he doesn't posting this now cause ran out of time. Will continue.
On May 24 2012 00:56 Release wrote:EBWOP: ... Calls him out but he doesn't apply any REAL pressure. Not asking for a response of any kind. The FOS appears to be for courtesy rather than pressure. At this point, SOlstice's defense appears to be much more solid than your accusations, which is saying something because accusations are typed without pressure whereas defenses are typed under pressure. + Show Spoiler +On May 23 2012 08:16 Miltonkram wrote:I already had suspicions of ShiaoPi, but his latest "defense" just makes him feel more scummy in my eyes. Show nested quote +On May 23 2012 07:12 ShiaoPi wrote:
Regarding my "knee-jerk": I'll just quote my answer to hegeo:
+ Show Spoiler +
I believe it to be a good defense. It is Day 1, nobody is confirmed town until he flips, so why should I not throw the ball at you for a bit, while I answered your main question, which was "how come that you drop your suspicions on sciberba that easily?" That it came over slightly discrediting against you is part of it.
As it seemed like you checked the filters of everyone in terms of length. I see no logic behind building a case on a small filter size, when first of your own filter is not that big and secondly there are people with even smaller filters (see Mufaa).
Contributionwise I admit that there was not much from me yet. I gave my opinion on the cases others have posted and pointed out that we have a hardcore-lurker (which is more than just a "half-baked metacomment") right now. Really contributing as in lots of activity and some cases, are Release, sciberbia, hegeo and Mordanis. That makes 3 other people besides yourself, whose list of contributions is just as "meager" as mine and still you do not tunnel them. Why? Because of my small filter? But what about Mufaa's? Your argument of small filter = scum/should be pressured seems to go haywire with your case against me, so I naturally suspect you. At this point ShiaoPi seems like he is just treading water. I think he's either bad town or panicking mafia. Please note the sections that I have bolded in his quote. He never addresses the fact that he's being attacked because his posts lack content. He keeps trying to focus attention on other players as a means of defending himself, rather than actually defending himself with content.Then he makes a list of active players, in order to make himself look like he's accomplishing something. How much does that list actually accomplish? If you look over his filter, how many people has he actually put real pressure on? He put some very weak pressure on hegeo, only after Mordanis pressured him first. He's been gunning for Mufaa, a very easy player to gun for since he's lurking like crazy. @ s0Lstice- Thank you for clearing up why you were suspicious of me. I'm still not sure you're town, but at the very least that clears up some of my suspicions. For now I'm lessening my focus on you and shifting it to ShiaoPi. ##unFOS: s0Lstice ##FOS: ShiaoPi Plucking at straws. He realizes that his arguement against solstice is fruitless so he points the torch at ShaoPi. He concerns over defense when SHaoPi aims towards pointing out scum. In Mafia, pointing out scum is more valuable than hugging fellow townies. Why wouldn't you want him to point out scum? If he has a stronger case than your case against him, the town will lynch for his case, rather than yours, thus providing a strong defense. Your post is illogical. The rest of the post is useless filler. + Show Spoiler +On May 23 2012 08:34 Miltonkram wrote:
Also, I think it's time we light a fire under Mufaa to get him posting.
@ Mufaa- If you want me to change my vote for you, you better get in here and start posting. It's really hard to have good town play if even one person is lurking.
##Vote: Mufaa
This is something I think everyone should keep in mind. We only have one player who is hardcore lurking. That means we have at least one mafia who is staying fairly active in the thread. I need some more time to think this line of thought through (What kind of active town benefits a mafia? What can we do to prevent that kind of town from happening?), but it's good to keep in mind when reading through a player's filter. pure crap. Voting for the lurker on D1 is never a good idea when there are obvious scum targets at hand. Very wishy-washy with his constant change in thought. Trying to confuse the town? i'll stop here because i ran out of time for real this time, but if i had to switch away from Hegeo, you would be my next target.
Milton, you scumbag, respond to these. From long time ago and you still haven't responded.
Too bad i was still focussed on Hegeo after i posted this... But that's what you wanted isn't it? You split the town's attention so that there would be two cases and i wouldn't focus as closely on one as i would the other.
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One of s0lstice's posts really caught my attention. I just want to point it out now in case I'm dead in 10 minutes. In the minutes leading up to the deadline yesterday, hegeo made his final post: a giant, well-formed accusation of Release and Mordanis. At the time, me, milton, mordanis, shiaopi, and solstice were online. Everybody but solstice seemed a bit taken aback at the situation. Hegeo's post made him look town, but none of us were really sure what to think. Here are our reactions:
me: + Show Spoiler +On May 24 2012 08:27 sciberbia wrote:
This is either just bizarre townie play or a really really desperate mafia move.
Miltonkram: + Show Spoiler +On May 24 2012 08:33 Miltonkram wrote:
Good night hegeo, if you flip town at the very least we can take your last post and it's accusations seriously.
Mordanis: + Show Spoiler +On May 24 2012 08:33 Mordanis wrote:Show nested quote +On May 24 2012 08:29 s0Lstice wrote:On May 24 2012 08:27 sciberbia wrote:
Dude worst timing ever. You realize the deadline is in 5 minutes? This is either just bizarre townie play or a really really desperate mafia move. Seeing as I can't even read your post in the next 4 minutes, there is no way we are lynching Release or Mordanis. He says right in the header that he's been working on this the entire time, and presumably wanted to get it in earlier. I wish he would have dropped a quick note to that effect, but it seems like he was pretty engrossed. But don't you have to copy the code from the thread for this type of thing? This is such a weird situation.........
ShiaoPi: + Show Spoiler +On May 24 2012 08:37 ShiaoPi wrote:
Anyway, really waiting for the flip now... On May 24 2012 08:46 ShiaoPi wrote:
townflip, even blue.....
Mordanis and Release you should better prepare a damn good defense now
s0sltice: + Show Spoiler +On May 24 2012 08:41 s0Lstice wrote:
lol. if you think he is going to flip anything but green now you are nuts. posturing by you. On May 24 2012 08:55 s0Lstice wrote:
I guess that explains his mostly soft pressure. He sounded like a politician up until that last post, not sticking his neck out. My #1 newb fear was confusing blue for red.
I find it suspicious that s0sltice was so sure hegeo is town, and had a quick explanation for hegeo's behavior. Only the mafia actually knew for a fact the he was town.
I looked through solstice's filter and didn't find anything else I had an issue with, so I'm not prepared to say he is definitely scum, but it really strikes me as something suspcious. Again, just wanted to put it out there in case I die.
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Day 2![[image loading]](http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-OV5vg9LU2mE/TthjCjFlUII/AAAAAAAACmI/XFgWdXHbjoo/s1600/crime_scene_mgmt1_2405.gif)
Twas the night before Friday and all through the house, not a creature was stirring…except for the two scummy bastards killing people. After a quick glance, you realize one of your member has indeed not joined you.
sciberbia the Vanilla Townie has been…taken care of.
You have ~48 hours from this post to decide who you wish to destroy next.
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Thanks all for playing. gg
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@ Release- Misinformation? Where? All I'm trying to do is explain the assumption that I'll be working from as I analyze you and Mordanis's posts. In my post I was stating all the possibilities so that I could begin eliminating those possibilities that are less likely. From this point on, I am assuming that between the two of you (Release, Mordanis), I'm pretty sure one of you is scum and one of you is town.
Let me restate this plainly: I don't think both of you are mafia. I don't think both of you are town. I think one of you is mafia and one of you is town.
I believe this for the reasons I stated in my last long post.
On May 25 2012 08:13 Release wrote:
---snip
Just answering the last part first: 2/7? You really think that a lynch is completely random? Trying to draw the town away from doing a real case on someone like you( who already has a substantial case) so they can get that 50/50 lynch?
Remember D1: we had a 50/50 lynch (in the town's eyes, it was 100/0 because both seemed scummy, but my point is that there were 2 candidates). Stop trying to trick others with the same illusions that Hegeo did; it's what got him lynched.
This is so full of shit and scum.
No, of course I don't think lynching is completely random. I was shortening my reasoning because it wasn't the main thrust of my post. If we did just flip a coin deciding to lynch you or Mordanis, I say we'd have a 50/50 chance to hit mafia. We can do better than that though, with good analysis we'll find out which one of you is scum.
On May 25 2012 08:13 Release wrote:
---snip
And so what if we pressured him? He seemed scummy. We're supposed to pressure scummy players. If we didn't, we would have your dream random lynch scenario where a townie is more likely lynched. You would love that wouldn't you?
Your case was the alternative to Hegeo's case. We chose him and we seemed to have forgotten about you. I haven't. If i'm still alive after the day post, you better watch yourself.
##FOS: Milton
Holy crap, stop playing so defensively. I'm not even sure if you're the half of the duo that's scum. I'm just laying the groundwork for my analysis of your (you and Mordanis's) posting. Also stop labeling any analysis you disagree with as WIFOM. I think you may be the one who doesn't understand its definition.
Since Release seems impervious to reason, I'll put this out to the rest of the town. I don't care if you think I'm scum or not, the points I made in my post were good ones. Do you disagree with the assumptions I'm making? If you do it's best to speak up now, because I plan on basing my later analysis on these assumptions.
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However, I just don't see a good enough reason for scum to band together on D1. That's a short-sighted play that would come back to bite them in the ass later.
The mafia wouldn't do this. It's too obvious and scummy. Oh, so they might do this to trick us. But maybe they think that they will trick us so they just stick to the original plan, and what if the town thought of that? Shit, let's switch...
WIFOM
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EPT
