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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 05 2012 13:34 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2012 12:24 kitaman27 wrote:
Something else that I forget to mention is that I know 100% that Meapak wasn't saved by a veteran passive ability. Reads to come in about an hour or two. How do you know that?
How else would I know this? Because I saved him.
Just to be clear, are you supporting the "medic should counter-claim if they exist" plan or the "lynch kita plan"? We need to clear me so no player has an excuse to keep their vote on me today and cause a no-lynch or mislynch.
On June 05 2012 13:34 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Why did you just claim today instead of trying to argue against what people have said against you, or alternatively just push for the lynch of someone you think is scum? One of the things that's making me more reticent about your claim is that you didn't push for anyone else first, and you underplay the value of the medic, which seems weird considering you become more likely to make a save as the game goes on and those saves become more devastating to the mafia.
As I said before, I felt I would be unable to argue against this today. The entire cycle yesterday was wasted by me having to defend myself and no one was willing to listen to my response. Keeping my identity safe is important, however, not as important as an entire day's discussion and the threat of a mislynch and night hits. If I'm the clear easy lynch target, then we have two days in a row where players are no required to share their opinion, which is awful for late game. I could have waited until later in the cycle to claim, but with the inactivity displayed by the players yesterday, I had no faith that we would be able to accomplish anything in a 10 hour period.
I'll comment on ET and Kenpachi later, but I'd really like to hear from you first. The entire game I feel you have been gauging where the town seems to be going and then showing up later in the cycle to share your opinions. Is there a reason why you aren't the one who is leading the lynch?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 05 2012 15:05 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2012 15:00 EchelonTee wrote:
Why should the real medic not claim? This reminds me of MrZentor's doctor claim in SoaF. Because all that does is out the actual medic. I don't believe Kita's claim for one second. It is way too convenient and doesn't match with his play. He has been scummy scummy scum all game and now that his head is on the chopping block he can wriggle out by claiming the most convenient role yet.
It is impossible for myself to wrigggle out of the lynch as scum with my medic claim. The real medic would being able to counter-claim and get me lynched.
On June 05 2012 15:05 Probulous wrote:
At worst he gets to out our medic, at best he gets off and gets major town credit. It's win, super win if he is scum. If he is town he would have shown something before now. Almost the entire thread has voted for him at some point this game, but suddenly now he is town?
You're "at best" scenario doesn't make any sense. They only way I'm getting off with major town cred is if I'm not counter-claimed, which means I'm town.
On June 05 2012 15:11 Probulous wrote:
Everyone, almost everyobody had him as their number one scum target at some point this game, but a badly crumbed convenient medic claim is suddenly credible?
That is a false statement. You are the only player who has actually completed a case against me. The rest have not provided any reasoning. Meapak was unable to come up with a case, VE was unable to come up with a case until it was necessary for his own survival. Bugs took a guess without ever providing reasoning. We have VE crumbing his ability with an upside down question mark, yet my post with my role name, an image of my role, and the word breadcrumb bolded is considered badly crumbed? We don't even need to rely on the crumb, its a confirmable claim.
On June 05 2012 15:05 Probulous wrote:
I'm fine with looking at other scummy people, we need to anyway, but don't claim until you absolutely have to.
Do share.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 05 2012 15:27 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On June 05 2012 15:25 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: someone please enlighten me how a 1/1 trade is good for scum right now? If we have scum lined up for a lynch, then a 1:1 is better than a 0:1 from their point of view, right?
Even better for scum is a 3:0, which is what would happen with my lynch.
You still haven't thanked me Meapak. Show some gratitude. 
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Seriously? You don't want the medic to claim, but you're fine claiming detective, which is by far a more important role? Having the medic counter-claim was a 100% foolproof plan. 
Claiming detective is full of problems. You don't even bother to consider a framer for a second? Out of all the players in this game, who is most likely to be framed night two after pushing a VE lynch? Meapak, bugs, and toad had already been confirmed town. Wigggles was already likely red. Of course I'm the most likely framer target.
Furthermore, its possible that you are a lyncher targeting Professor Membrane. It doesnt matter if your claim is made up on the spot if it gets me lynched.
How do I know Meapak isn''t a vet if I didn't protect him. As scum, I'm not giving up information that has a 50% chance to invalidate my claim right off the bat.
If there exists a medic who protected Meapak night one, claim now. I guarantee you don't exist.
If there exists a Professor Membrane in this game, claim now. I guarantee you don't exist.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 05 2012 16:24 Probulous wrote:
Who is Prof Membrane?
I never watched the show so I don't know what you are talking about?
That is my role. I breadcrumbed it on day two, which is 100% clear and it perfectly fits my medic claim. I'm also the father of you and VE. We're such a happy family
On June 05 2012 16:24 Probulous wrote:
The only possible explanation with you as town would be that you were framed night 2. I doubt that is the case given the rest of your posting. The only people you have pushed as serious lynches are town (VE and Hassy).
Did you delibrately exclude my case against Wiggles?
On June 05 2012 16:14 EchelonTee wrote:
Ah derp on my part.
N2 framer is possible, but less likely than N3 frame.I believe probes claim, and.it's quite likely kita is fake claiming, but there is the small possibility that we are about to be totally fucked.
I don't understand. I was checked on N2. Answer me this, if the framer exists, which is extremely likely, who is the player most likely to be framed n2?
We can eliminate this possibility with following the medic-claim plan.
I've taken a list of the remaining players and removed toad, the mason, prob, the claimed dt, meapak (he cannot protect himself), and four random players representing the identities of the scum team.
This gives them a pool of seven players that could possibly be medic. With a mafia role cop in play, as many as 3 other players cannot be the medic. This would leave a pool of only four players that could possibly be the medic. With the lynch and two kp at night, their days are limited as it is.
In exchange for following the "medic-claim plan", we are able to prevent a mislynch and two night hits at the cost of the medic's identity, which as I have shown above, the mafia already has a good idea where he could be. (In fact, they know exactly where he is :p)
Prob, earlier you mentioned your best case worst case scenarios. Here is an accurate representation:
Worst-case:
The medic gets mislynched, the detective gets shot, Meapak gets shot, and we've nearly thrown the game away.
Best-case:
There is no-counter claim, I'm confirmed as town, and we save ourselves an entire cycle and three kills.
Clearly the identity of the medic is worth the exchange of an entire cycle.
Let me ask one question to the thread, if you could pick one target to be framed as scum on n2, who would you choose? I think its more than obvious.
I've presented a plan that confirms my alignment, don't throw this away.
This is so frusturating -_-
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
With the roleblocker dead, its likely that the scum team cannot stop my save. Therefore, if I protect prob, it takes both of their kp to take him out.
If we lynch a secondary scum suspect other than myself today, I can prove to the thread that both Prob and an additional townie cannot die while I live.
It's possible that the mafia team will double stack prob and then push my lynch the following cycle, but that opens up the risk of a watcher or tracker, which is potentially game ending for them.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 05 2012 16:37 kitaman27 wrote:
With the roleblocker dead, its likely that the scum team cannot stop my save. Therefore, if I protect prob, it takes both of their kp to take him out.
If we lynch a secondary scum suspect other than myself today, I can prove to the thread that both Prob and an additional townie cannot die while I live.
It's possible that the mafia team will double stack prob and then push my lynch the following cycle, but that opens up the risk of a watcher or tracker, which is potentially game ending for them.
Furthermore, it puts the mafia team in a situation where they have to decide between double stacking the dt, while allowing players who are confirmed town, such as toad or Meapak (or hassybaby?), to survive to late game, or shooting the confirmed town players, while risking additional dt checks. It's a lose-lose for them.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Sorry for the four consecutive posts GreyMist :p
Additionally, if I was scum, why would I claim hours into the cycle? I would wait until moments before the lynch, similar to my fake tracker claim in LotR mafia, to shut down discussion for the entire cycle and take advantage of the confusion to live another day.
As scum, the fake claim would seal my fate. I'm 100% going to be counter-claimed if there is another medic. Why would I seal my own fate without waiting out the cycle, pushing a mislynch, and determining if the claim was really necessary to save my life.
There was a four hour period between the medic claim and the dt claim, where the true medic could claim. During this time, I'm pretty sure nearly every player has had a chance to read the thread. They had an opportunity to confirm themselves town and confirm me as scum. No player counter-claimed. That is because I am the true medic.
I fail to see how a n2 frame is unlikely. If a framer exists, I'm almost certainly the frame target. I'm likely to be checked by detectives and I just finished pushing a mislynch.
The medic-claim plan confirms my alignment. Please don't throw this game away 
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Welcome to medic hunting 101. I am Professor Membrane and I will be your instructor today. Today I will introduce the process of Membranian elimination:
The following players are alive:
+ Show Spoiler +
3. Hassybaby
6. Hyaach
7. marvellosity
10. austinmcc
12. MajuGarzett
13. Probulous
14. Toadesstern
18. papapanda
22. Mr. Wiggles
24. Manason
26. EchelonTee
27. kitaman27
29. Meapak_Ziphh
30. Kenpachi
I have now removed the players who have claimed roles other than medic:
+ Show Spoiler +
3. Hassybaby
6. Hyaach
7. marvellosity
10. austinmcc
12. MajuGarzett
18. papapanda
22. Mr. Wiggles
24. Manason
26. EchelonTee
27. kitaman27
29. Meapak_Ziphh
30. Kenpachi
A player who supports the "medic-claim" plan is clearly not the medic:
+ Show Spoiler +
3. Hassybaby
12. MajuGarzett
18. papapanda
24. Manason
27. kitaman27
30. Kenpachi
Finally, the mafia team is clearly not the medic. That would remove as many as four players from the last. While the exact number is unclear, I will remove three players from the list.
+ Show Spoiler +
3. Hassybaby
12. MajuGarzett
18. papapanda
If the mafia has a rolecop, it is extremely likely that they already know the identity of the medic, as 1-2 additional players may be removed from the list. If they do not have a rolecop, then the identity of the medic has already been narrowed down to a pool 3-4 players. If the scum team is medic hunting, the medic has 1-2 nights left to live anyway. Therefore, there is very little risk in followin the medic-claim plan, which allows us to avoid the huge risk of a mislynch and two night hits.
Thoughts on the remaining players will come in a bit.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 06 2012 05:17 Toadesstern wrote:
no need right now. Lynch kita and we're fine
Posts like these add nothing to the thread. The mafia team are sitting back and laughing as the dt(?) and mason are pushing the mislynch on the medic. I already explained how the medic-claim is optimal. No medic has claimed and therefore I'm town. Even so, why am I the only player to have delivered an analysis today? You guys do realize that in addition to deciding whether or not I'm scum, we still need to come up with an alternate candidate. Waiting until tomorrow does not leave us enough time to gain a majority. Post from me incoming shortly.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Eliminating myself, Toad, and Meapak we have a pool of 11 players where the remaining four scum players reside. I have also removed Prob and Hassy. While he has not been confirmed 100% as a detective and the alignment check on hassybaby may be masked by a godfather cover, I do not believe they should be considered for lynch today. Additionally, as an anti-scum lyncher has already flipped, I think it is extremely likely that an anti-town lyncher is still in play. That leaves 5 out of 9 anti-town players in the following pool:
6. Hyaach
7. marvellosity
10. austinmcc
12. MajuGarzett
18. papapanda
22. Mr. Wiggles
24. Manason
26. EchelonTee
30. Kenpachi
I have read throug each player's filter and removed the players I have some degree of town read on.
austinmcc has shown signs that he cares about town and has shown motivation to scum hunt, he has defended zealos in order to push a gambit lynch. It seems unlikely that a mafia player will defend a scumbuddy, while pushing another scumbuddy. Finally, his silly conspiracy theory about a toad, meapak, kita scum group seems town to me.
marvellosity shows signs of frustration with inactivity and looks good after pushing the zealos lynch. In addition, he is the only player to have a back and forth conversation with zealos. His recent play has been less convincing, but I'm willing to put him off for later.
6. Hyaach
12. MajuGarzett
18. papapanda
22. Mr. Wiggles
24. Manason
26. EchelonTee
30. Kenpachi
I'm strongly considering pusing Kenpachi for the following post:
On May 30 2012 11:03 Kenpachi wrote:
shall we roll the metagame die?
I firmly believe 2-3 of the mafia team is made of Mafia veterans namely Wiggles Kitaman and even myself. I personally believe Wiggles is mafia cause he should have known better than to lynch Sinensis for day 1. poor as hell of a choice honestly.
So you might be asking why am i doing this? simple: im fucking good at doing this. after i pulled this shit off months ago, i noticed a trend in a lack of balanced mafia teams but i was able to point out players such as BloodyC0bbler with this method. but i figure, why the hell not try this again since im pretty sure hosts started going back to their balancing ways.
Look at this list carefully. They can all be potent mafia or town players. likely 2 or 3 are mafia. Why? If i was a host, id sure be unhappy if my entire team was 6 grushes.
2. Blazinghand
7. marvellosity
14. Toadesstern
15. Supersoft
21. Wherebugsgo
22. Mr. Wiggles
26. EchelonTee
27. kitaman27
28. VisceraEyes
29. Meapak_Ziphh
30. Kenpachi
well thats it. i havent actually read anyone's post on this list lawl
It seems pretty clear that the mafia team has a limited number of players with 20+ games experience based on the flips and identities of confirmed power roles. Pushing this sort of policy as a member of a mafia team of players such as gambit and zealos allow the vets to be at each others throats, while the quieter players sneak by.
On May 30 2012 10:30 Kenpachi wrote:
did i start the Zealos wagon? im gonna read his filter and give my thoughts.
On May 30 2012 10:34 Kenpachi wrote:
wait who added onto my Zealos analysis?
Furthermore, Kenpachi wants to remind us that he found zealous scummy, without actually pushing a zealos lynch.
The last two cycles he has done nothing but taunt me about my lynch, with no consideration that I could be town. He is always a tough read, but he is not a player I want around for endgame.
Wiggles I still feel is a good lynch. As I look through his posts, I really strugle to find town tells that show that he has the towns best interest in mind. Every single cycle he has taken a backseat role, only taken the time to comment about irrelevant information, lacking in true contribution. I would like to do a follow-up post to my previous analysis of wiggles, but this took too much time.
Please everyone respond to this post. The day is nearly half way over and we have gone absolutely nowhere. Does nobody care about this game?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Since you are around, could you provide your opinion on everyone else you find noteworthy? Those couple of sentences arent sufficient if you hope to live.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
lol austin. Save the tin foil hat for the aliens :p
As for a mafia Meapak, it seems very unlikely we have a serial killer due to the number of kp each night. The only scenario I can see is if scum double stacked someone and I stopped an assassin kp on meapak (unlikely) or I saved a traitor Meapak from a mafia kp (unfortunate, but not worth considering at this point).
Manason, I think a role claim might be appropriate. Also, could you explain why you chose to ignore my question earlier regarding your experience playing mafia? I think it is relavent considering your account was created only days before the game started.
I'm still thinking Wiggles might be the best way to go. A lot of push back for a player who has been practically afk.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
And who is your new lynch preference now that you have unvoted me and why?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 07 2012 01:29 kitaman27 wrote:
And who is your new lynch preference now that you have unvoted me and why?
Opps ninja'd. What about Toad's opinion of Maju makes sense to you?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
lol not that its relavent anymore, but I even forgot my other breadcrumb on day two referencing the previous game where I saved Meapak :p
On May 31 2012 15:01 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 31 2012 14:49 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
lol VE's not a vigi. Here's how setups like this work, in Annul's harry potter game the entire town essentially claimed and outed the mafia because the mafia had no idea what roles were in the game and accidentally claimed roles that townies had. Ollivander + Pomfrey OP
Manason, in addition to sharing what you like about Toad's opinion on Maju, could you also share your thoughts on Wiggles?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 07 2012 06:07 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
So is it just that no one is here, or do people just not want to switch their votes? Is no one going to address that Manason reads and feels more like a clueless new player than scum? Remember my vote counts double, so we only need 6 other people to vote maju. Manason is 1. With MZ and Toad, that's 3. So, only 3 others need to switch to kill Maju.
Why does it take you 45 hours to post a case and then expect a consensus 3 hours before the deadline? -_-
Doing a quick reread and then will be voting.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I think today might be mylo if we have a scum pardoner.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 07 2012 07:38 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 07:19 kitaman27 wrote:
I think today might be mylo if we have a scum pardoner. I can't see a pardoner in the set-up
I love you toad.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On June 07 2012 07:51 Toadesstern wrote:Show nested quote +On June 07 2012 07:46 kitaman27 wrote:On June 07 2012 07:38 Toadesstern wrote:On June 07 2012 07:19 kitaman27 wrote:
I think today might be mylo if we have a scum pardoner. I can't see a pardoner in the set-up I love you toad. don't know if that's irony and I'm stupid again or not 8(
-_-
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EPT
