Pick Your Power: Redux

On May 14 2012 03:18 risk.nuke wrote:
Have it start tonight!

On May 15 2012 08:52 Misder wrote:
No, they revolve around denying mafia roles for an instawin (okay, maybe a bit exaggerated but not really).
I would also say no mass roleclaim cause that gives mafia way too much information.

On May 15 2012 09:35 talismania wrote:
Paqman, the plans being discussed all revolve around setting the roles to be picked by the top three or so draft winners. In effect, they are pre-claiming the roles that those three people will get.

On May 16 2012 23:55 risk.nuke wrote:

I said it wont affect them at all if you bothered to read before you spurted out your bunch of nonsense.
You claim us discussing them will affect their rolepicks? I find that very unlikely since their picks will be determined by their positions in the draft and what they think they can get. They can't simply trade roles between eachother and give a player who's more heavily scrutinised a certain role. And if they start doing that they will have less time to think about their new roles to pick.

On May 17 2012 09:04 Toadesstern wrote:


It's not the point that he is resisting the plan. The fact that he was fine with the plan before Role-PMs went out and changed his mind once he got his role PM is the troublesome part.

Yes usually people who are that vocal don't turn out to be mafia but he could very well do that on purpose.
Remember how I played in LI and WBG said "no way Toad is mafia. He said VE is mafia and told us that he hasn't even done a case on VE when asked about that. Mafias aren't usually talking about things like that so transparent" and I ended up being mafia although wbg was perfectly right with his statement.
I already said to blue in another thread it's not about wether it's "normal" for mafia or town. It's about wether or not it's normal for the specific guy and if you think he has the balls to do that as mafia. I think he would have the balls to do it, making it a null for me.

And on top of a null I have a guy who ignores everything what's going on while we have multiple people telling everyone that we can't change the plan once Role-PMs are out and that guy comes in here once Role-PMs are out telling everyone that he want's to destroy the plan on purpose.

If he does that he is mafia. If he isn't doing it he's a townie who thought it's a good idea to draw attention away from the traitor by looking like a mafia on purpose.
We'll find out about it d2 :p

On May 17 2012 10:14 Qatol wrote:
Let me preface this discussion by stating that we have seen very little arguing between players so far. The number selections being completely random and the discussions about roles have gone almost completely without debate. This is a very pro-town atmosphere and tells me that the mafia are trying to blend into the discussion rather than keep the town from working together. The mafia haven't been working towards encouraging arguments at this point. Therefore, the people we should be looking at first are the ones who are hovering around the edges of the discussion without adding much.

As promised, I give you my strong lynch target: PaqMan

First, he undergoes a stark change in attitude after the game starts. When the game is still in its setup stages, he's positively giddy about the game starting.
However, once the game starts, his posting undergoes a major change. He becomes much more conservative in his posting, to the point where he might be considered apathetic about the game. He spends most of the number selection phase lurking in the background asking a question or two here and there, but not really making much of an attempt to contribute. Where did the pregame excitement go?

On May 17 2012 10:14 Qatol wrote:
Notice this post:
1)The question to ask is "why would he post something like this?" Note that nobody at the time was posting any reservations about the number selection plan at all. So why would he ask this? Because he's trying to make it look like he's involved in the discussion and making useful posts without really advancing the main discussion at all.

2)These posts made part of one of his next posts even more surprising:
Then what was that comment earlier? And why have you been asking questions up to this point without giving your opinion on anything? Up to this point, you haven't contributed anything at all! We literally know your opinion on nothing. But you are still highlighting different parts of the plan.

And why have you been asking questions up to this point without giving your opinion on anything?

On May 17 2012 10:14 Qatol wrote:
Now let's compare this to another recent game where PaqMan was a townie: Mafia 'Area' LIII
He started very similarly, chomping at the bit for the game to start.
However, notice his posts once the game started:
There is a HUGE difference between how he acts here. He's comfortable asserting his opinion when questioning an idea. Notice that he has done nothing of the sort in this game other than pointing out that posting numbers doesn't hurt the town if done in the context of a larger post.

Now look at one more post from Area LIII which draws an even bigger contrast to the posts he has been making in this game:
This is a wonderful pro-town post. He points out potential flaws in a plan and suggests an improvement. He hasn't even come CLOSE to doing something like this in the current game even though all we have done so far is talk about plans! He has the ability to do so, he just hasn't.

On May 17 2012 10:14 Qatol wrote:
So, in summary, PaqMan fits the profile we should be looking for as a mafia, we saw a dramatic shift between his pre-game and current posting styles, his posts show that he is scared to give meaningful contribution to the ongoing discussion, he clearly doesn't care about the well-being of the town, and his history tells us that this is completely out of character for him. All of this adds up to Mafia.

On May 17 2012 12:47 Mattchew wrote:
Hey paqman, do you find qatol's case against you scummy like you did mine in area LIII? Or do you think he's just an off track townie?

On May 18 2012 09:38 Misder wrote:
I think there is definitely mafia in between risk.nuke, marvellosity, and sentinel. I don't see how there is any benefit to town lying about having the Janitor role at all. I also think we should deal with the Janitor role first.

Qatol: If you thought that Janitor is a really strong role for mafia that it warranted a denial, why is lynching Paqman more ideal?

Paqman: Who do you think is Janitor?

Sentinel: Why are you not voting risk.nuke?

On May 18 2012 12:46 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok if someone can figure out why 2 of those 3 can not be mafia tell me and we lynch the third guy.
If you are not able to do that we will not randomly lynch into one of the three. It's as simple as that.

A random lynch into one of three is about as bad as a policy lynch. A policy lynch is 1/4 chance to hit mafia / SK...
might as well lynch me instead, or Qatol, or whoever else.
Noone wants that to happen, yet people consider lynching into risk / marv / sent. With this (possibly) KP stacked setup it's even worse. We have 14 townies alive and AT LEAST 2 KP every night. more likely something like 2,5 every night (depending on wether or not mafia has the CPR) + something like 1 or 2 KP extra.
That's a shitload of dead townies and we can't policy lynch in that situation.

Unless someone can figure this mess out none of these three should be a topic and none of these three should be lynched.

On May 18 2012 12:11 Toadesstern wrote:
We lynch mafia and a 1/3 chance to lynch mafia is not lynching mafia...

On May 19 2012 02:01 Toadesstern wrote:


I tried to do that yesterday and Sandro ended up putting me on his ignore list agreeing with me and voting for senti as well
while saying "we probably should no-lynch thought"
hinthint: it's the same sandro that says stuff like


But yeah, whatever, lynching a modconfirmed townie obviously is optimal play d1 and if that's not possible one should nolynch instead. Very much optimal play in my book as well.

On May 19 2012 07:51 marvellosity wrote:
you did miss something, read his filter

On May 19 2012 03:04 marvellosity wrote:
Alright I've talked it over. I am mason and I chose the random townie option.



This is not a breadcrumb but this was me taking a stab at what I believed zelblade had chosen given he said he was VT.

If the thread thinks it is correct I will tell you who I got, for the mo I'm gonna exercise and have dinner.

On May 19 2012 08:53 risk.nuke wrote:
Btw did anyone try to pick Framer and didn't get it?

And lol at PaqMan voting and then confessing you're not done reading the thread. I'mnot a proffesor but this man seems to have an agenda. Voting first, finding reasons after.

And double lol at Palmar confirming beeing the SK. Roleblock and vig him tonight.

On May 19 2012 12:02 Misder wrote:
This also means that Janitor is not in those three hands, and that if there is a Janitor, then it's in scum's hand in a lower draft position.

On May 19 2012 12:31 Misder wrote:

Yes, but 7 people haven't read the thread yet or just don't get it. For example, PaqMan recently posted in the thread after the claims and yet hasn't concluded what Qatol and I have concluded in the thread yet.