Newbie Mini Mafia XIII
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
So far my thoughts on FirmTofu are nonexistant. He posted once, 40 minutes into a game. It's a 48 hour day/24 hour night cycle, so I see no reason to be chomping at the bit to lynch him. I'm in agreement with him that we should give everyone a chance to post. Game just now started, and depending on your timezone most of the time it's been running was overnight. Instead, I'm much more in favor of what you just did actually. Point out specific names--who isn't posting, hasn't been contributing--and start looking for responses. Anyone entirely inactive is going to get modkilled, so let's force activity out of those we can, get discussion rolling, and build up a bigger body of posts to analyze. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On May 10 2012 23:26 Anacletus wrote: I am only voting because I don't have much to add. I would also like to point out that *if* we hang tofu for his suspicious behavior and he is mafia then we can rule out those voting as being mafia, no? But if he's town, shit. This is an awful reason to vote for a lynch. We've got almost 36 hours of day 1 left, and while we should be drumming up discussion, this doesn't help. You say you have nothing to add. Why vote based on that? You don't give any reason for your vote at all, and if you have nothing to add then why vote Tofu over anyone else. A vote like that is absolutely unhelpful to town. You mention his "suspicious behavior," but what behavior was that? How was his post overly suspicious to you? You haven't posted anything of note yet either, why vote Tofu for no reason and then be surprised/demand a reason for someone voting you? Moreover, no, we can't confirm town/mafia based on votes that easy. If we have multiple lynch candidates, then sure, maybe the majority of the mafia vote for a townie. But so far, we just have some random votes on Tofu for no real reason. Mafia can just hide votes in there, even if he were scum, and you learn nothing from the votes. If we want any info from voting, we need more candidates. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On May 10 2012 23:41 Anacletus wrote: I think it makes more sense for the mafia to try and be passive in voting yet vocal in chat to try and rule who otherw vote for and keep their hands clean. I can agree with this to a point, but they're going to have to vote at some point. I'm more suspicious of someone who votes just to vote, but without a decent reason, than I am of someone who hasn't voted. Not voting is the sensible play if you don't have a reason to vote someone yet. Voting just to vote doesn't help town at all, and sheeping someone else's vote, especially when there's not really much reasoning behind that vote, certainly doesn't help town. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
All you've said is: suspicious behavior In your original vote. But you didn't tell us what you found suspicious. On May 10 2012 23:41 Anacletus wrote: I doubt that the mafia would try to be hyper-aggressive day 1. I think that the people who aren't voting are suspicious. I think it makes more sense for the mafia to try and be passive in voting yet vocal in chat to try and rule who otherw vote for and keep their hands clean. Say you think this, why vote Tofu? He posted once, 40 minutes into the game, and hasn't been active. That's not vocal in chat. His activity so far this game doesn't fit the pattern that you believe to be scummy. Town's job isn't to care about what gameplan mafia may or may not have. Our job is to hunt scum. To me, your vote on Tofu, especially as it runs against your own reasoning, looks scummy or newbie townish. Yet you say you've played games elsewhere before. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
In reference to your read on dahdum in Newbie XII, I remembered this quote from the postgame there: Yay! I was very active in the QT thread....the idea was to be sketchy enough to get Tofu to check & clear me, while avoiding an outright lynch. I'd agree that his playstyle is different in XIII, but I don't really want to try and read anyone's meta off of one newbie game. He IS posting more, but that could be anything out of: (a) being more comfortable, (b) being town and keeping activity in the thread and not QT, (c) having a different strategy for his play as scum. Now that we've got some more posts and activity, I'll take a look through filters this evening and try and actually post some cases. Still suspicious of Anacletus, but we've created quite the wagon for him here, and so for now I'm just going to leave him be until he responds to our concerns. I do like that we've started discussing the field as a whole, good to make sure we don't tunnel too hard on Anacletus so that we've got more reads to work off of and more pressure to get everyone active. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
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His play does not feel like good townie play. I brought that up earlier, we've all discussed it by now, and I think we all seem to come to the same conclusion. While I would support a lynch of Anacletus, I think we have better targets. I'll look through his responses more today, but for now I would prefer to look elsewhere, and see how Anacletus continues to play. Right now, "not good townie play" is my read, but I'm not convinced that his play is scummy and not just bad townie play. However, we've got a quarter of D1 left, and I want to throw this case out and push it a little, see what comes of it. My top scum read: BroodKingEXE. BroodKingEXE filter - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707&user=233869 Skip 2/3 of the first page. It's pregame. He's active, vocal, chatting a lot with everyone in the pregame. Doesn't really mean anything. First posts: + Show Spoiler + On May 10 2012 12:53 BroodKingEXE wrote: /confirm Lynching lurkers in the early game not a good idea. My reasoning is that people need to be able to post before we persecute them. Something to think about lurkers, Mafia will try to lurk, but their posts will have more intent behind each one. Why? Every post they make is going to push its own idea of an agenda, but the more they post the more the idea could be misinterpreted. Before we lynch a lurker let's look at the intent of the post: a Mafia agenda push or a helpful Townie post. + Show Spoiler + On May 10 2012 13:18 BroodKingEXE wrote: Not true, lynching an inactive is a waste. Scum wants us to not lynch them. We can call lurkers out, and they have to respond. They don't respond, we start looking at them. Lynching, because they are lurkers is stupid. + Show Spoiler + On May 10 2012 13:48 BroodKingEXE wrote: What are you implying here? We should wait for everyone to post before coming to conclusions? That seems scummy to me, we should be analyzing peoples posts right now. You just created a reason for you not to post. Convince your not scum. ##Vote: Firm Tofu These aren't entirely incompatible. Lynching lurkers bad, pressuring them good, let people post before we jump to conclusions. That seems townie, fine and dandy, but then he fires off the very first vote of the game on FirmTofu. Why? Because FirmTofu posted + Show Spoiler + On May 10 2012 08:36 FirmTofu wrote: Hi again dahdum! I hope you aren't mafia again >< I'm all for lynching a lurker, but we should definitely wait a bit for everyone to have a chance to post. Look at the bolded part of Broodking's first post. Now back to me. Now back to the bolded part of FirmTofu's post. Now back to me. Anything? That's the same exact thought process. And yet when FirmTofu vocalizes that, Broodking fires off the first vote of the game. I still don't agree with that vote at all, even if it was just to "pressure" someone, because there's absolutely no grounds for voting someone because they express a thought you just expressed slightly earlier. From then on out, it's a series of one-liner and response posts, but never really DOING anything. Last night (eastern time), BroodKing had one of the longest filters, and yet the only substantive post was him voting FirmTofu off the bat. For example: + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2012 03:30 BroodKingEXE wrote: You can withhold your vote but you still need to scum hunt. + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2012 04:01 BroodKingEXE wrote: This post makes sense, Anacletus' play has been pretty wierd. I need to hear a response from him before I vote though. This line stood out to me. BroodKing threw out of FIRST vote of the game on Tofu, before there was play to analyze and before Tofu responded to anything. Why does he need a response now to vote? After that, he starts giving responses to other people, specifically ShiaoPi's reads, but doesn't really add anything of substance. scummy + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2012 04:05 BroodKingEXE wrote: @Hyaach Why did you put your vote on Ancletus? You had just as much reasoning as him. That is none. On May 11 2012 04:33 BroodKingEXE wrote: WOAH WOAH WOAH WOAH WOAH!!!! ShiaoPi are you defending Hyaach? A null read? He has provided zero evidence for his vote. Your whole list is terrible, it provides nothing more than a bunch "I'm leaning town, but you can never be sure reads". I smell a scumwagon. On May 11 2012 05:38 BroodKingEXE wrote: Your big post brings up a list of null reads. Its misleading due to its size when its content is a bunch of reiteration of events. Scum will make posts like this to make themselves seem useful. If you actually read your reasoning for voting for anacletus it is: he was not eager, a post lacking logic, and a bandwagon. The first two could be townie mistakes and bandwagons aren't very effective when people have strong objections to the canidate. On the other hand, you have voted with the person you first thought was scum and had dropped your suspicions based on...nothing. On May 11 2012 09:09 BroodKingEXE wrote: Just needed explanation for your vote/post. This canidate seems really rushed though, people haven't looked at his latest posts for signs of scumminess. I agree that his past posts are suspicious, but we need to look at his current posts. Too much like a wagon for me to vote for him yet. Note that at this point, ShiaoPi has just thrown out the first real list of reads we had from anyone. BroodKing posts a couple times concerning the list, but doesn't really add anything. While he gets information out of ShiaoPi, he doesn't really provide any himself. At no point in those posts does he agree with a read or disagree with a read, rather, he simply acknowledges that reads were made and ShiaoPi voted. This is also the first point we begin to move AWAY from the Anacletus discussion (which has run its course at this point), and BroodKing continues to ask for information based on ShiaoPi's vote for Anacletus. Finally, compare his filter from this game with his filter from Newbie VIII, where he was town. + Show Spoiler + There are some posts in a similar style to his posts here, but a LOT of @x and @y, what do you guys think about z. Lots of longer discussions, paragraphs, lists. SOME of that is because he was the lynch target D1 and so had to be active and defend himself. But his townie posts from VIII feel more robust and they contribute, whereas his posts so far in XIII do not. ------------------------------- Anacletus's play still feels more bad than scummy. I would like to let him live for now, and see if he starts to really contribute. Right now he has 0 town cred, so if he's mafia he can't actively muck up town discussion. If we back off the pressure, MAYBE he mounts a decent defense and provides some good reads, because...he's got to do that to get any cred back. If not? We lynch him later, or we see if we can get any information N1 from blue roles that push us forward. Compared to Anacletus though, BroodKingEXE looks actively scummy. So far he hasn't contributed anything of note except the first vote of the game, which made little sense. He's supports getting responses before voting, but then votes without a response from FirmTofu. He wants scumhunting and reasoning, but has provided none. Again, I'm not opposed to an Anacletus lynch, but I would prefer to lynch the player that seems scummiest, which is BroodKing. ##Vote BroodKingEXE ##FOS: Anacletus Dahdum, I'm especially interested in hearing your thoughts on this, as you read BroodKing to be scummy as well. I didn't really notice him until I looked through all the filters last night and realized he was my best scumread. Do you agree with my reasoning? Did you have different reasoning? | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On May 12 2012 00:22 ShiaoPi wrote: @austinmcc: Considering your thoughts on Anacletus: There is always the possibility of bad town play instead of scummy play. But doesn't the defense of Anacletus (or more the lack of) seem weird to you? Also his lack of good contributions? I guess bad townie play is always a possibility, but for now I stand by my vote. On the accusations on BroodKingEXE: You bring up some good analysis. I guess I overlooked those aspects of his posts because I was more busy defending my posts against him than analyzing. I'll have to reread his filter thoroughly though, before doing anything. I think that Anacletus has contributed very little. And that's generous. If I were breaking down everything he's posted, a statement that he reads BioSC as mafia is the ONLY remotely pro-town thing he's posted, and he doesn't back that read up or post a case, so it has absolutely no value. His lack of a defense does seem weird to me. Weird, but not entirely scummy, for a few reasons.
So that's my reasoning. He got no help, even though a mafia lynch this early would be crushing to the scumteam. He kept giving poor responses to everything, which makes it seem like he didn't sit down and think. I'm not saying we remove the FOS. I'm just rather see what happens if we let him be for a little bit. Make it known that he has no town cred, and needs to stop, really dig into the thread, and give us some good reads and analysis (Make a real case against BioSC if you think he's scummy), which we might not even care about because he lost his cred. If he doesn't give us anything useful, he's a great candidate for tomorrow. I just want to see what he does, how he plays, when he's not getting voted or questioned every 15 minutes in thread. But in my gut, his play screams "bad" more than it screams "scum." Whereas with Broodking, his posts, his logic, and to the extent that we newbies have meta, his meta, DO scream scum to me. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Don't try and discredit me. Try and discredit that case on you. Or maybe you're hoping it sits there and gets buried before the end of D1 so that you don't get lynched. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On May 12 2012 00:18 Nova_Terra wrote: Vote Count: Anacletus(8): Hyaach, FirmTofu, ShiaoPi, Dahdum, Darkfirex5, Anacletus, BioSC, BroodkingEXE BroodkingEXE(1): austinmcc Not Voting(4): Mufaa, Jailbreaker, Crossfire99, Unforgiven_ve Currently, Anacletus is set to be lynched. Please feel free to PM me if my vote count is incorrect, just let me know. This appears to still be the vote. We've got less than 5 hours til lynch. My vote is locked in unless I see a great defense quick. Otherwise I'm assuming (a) Scum hopes the BroodKing case doesn't get read before the deadline or (b) Scumteam taking its time in QT to work out how to play things. Town, do us a favor. Don't let (a) happen. If we mislynch because we have bad reads, fine. We just need to work on our analysis, and that's one reason we're in a newbie game. But if we mislynch because of inactivity, that's not a good town environment. Especially people like Anac. You're voting yourself. If you want to, fine, but that doesn't really speak in your favor. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
As to a plan, I don't think we should discuss that. I do hope that votes swap over and we lynch Brood. However, if we start discussing in the thread, "If x happens, town should do A. If y happens, town should do B," then mafia knows exactly how to play the rest of D1. Find the outcome they want, act accordingly, and let town do the work. So personally, I'm more for everyone voting their strongest read. For me, Brood is the scummiest player. I think his content and his actions have been scummy, and they don't mesh up with his play as town in VIII. I think Anac's content and actions have been either scummy or just...bad play. Just more convinced on Brood, so he gets my vote. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I don't have anything more to add to the case, other than Brood's response posts didn't do anything for me. He's yet to really post a defense. He sort of called me out as scummy, but didn't push that at all. However, I think the overall behavior today supports a lynch of Brood over Anac. Think about these possible scenarios: Anac is mafia, Brood is town. Someone jumps in with a case against another player. It makes sense, has some analysis there. If you're mafia, don't you jump on that? Don't you try as hard as you can to swing the vote towards Brood over Anac, pushing for a wagon as hard as you can? Why, if Anac is mafia and Brood isn't, would we not see more people coming in, sheeping my posts, pushing Brood hard? (Yeah, I'm pushing Brood. No, I'm not mafia. Just defending and pushing my own case and read, rather than jumping on an already-present wagon). Anac is town, Brood is mafia. You've got anac swinging, you've all but ensured a mislynch D1, you're sitting pretty as mafia. Then a case comes out on Brood. Wtf. Not good. Bury it, don't respond to it, stifle discussion, keep your sights on Anac. Until there's a critical amount of pressure, you don't have to do anything. But above all, you wait and you see what happens, and you start planning your responds. Both are mafia. Well, you're just probably boned. If town's two strongest reads are 2/3 your team, enjoy the loss. No way can you present a third candidate in time and hope for a mislynch. Both are town. Who cares? No way is town lynching mafia, you can sit back and relax. The response so far basically fits into almost any of those categories. No big pushing response. The ONE category that the response doesn't fit is Anac scum and Brood town. If that were the case, mafia should be trying so hard to start a wagon rolling. But they're not. So to me, the case AND the response fit Brood being scum (not counting the scenario where both are town and a mislynch is guaranteed). Just consider that. How would you expect the scumteam to play this, and has that actually happened? They're not giving us a lot to work with here, waiting things out and not slipping up within the last few hours. But is that lack of content a tell in and of itself? If that makes sense, and recent action just doesn't support a scenario where Anac is scum and Brood is town, then we should take out Brood. We can deal with Anac later if he IS scum, because he's got no chance to be really disruptive after his start. | ||
austinmcc
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On May 12 2012 05:07 BroodKingEXE wrote: The reason I have not addressed it is because it doesn't make me look scummy. I voted for Firm Tofu, because he implied that we should wait for everyone to get a post up before discussing. At least this is how I read into it. By lynching lurkers early, I mean we shouldn't lynch for being lurkers early. I'm not for lynching lurkers early because at least one person is going to point out a scum, and that scum will have to defend himself or other Mafia. If we can find that guy we can draw out the rest of the scum. Also, lynching scum lurkers don't provide any information as to the other scum members. Too many times I have seen lurker bandwagons based only on their lurker. I have been drawing information according to you, and that is my plan to call out others and form opinions on them so we can lynch scum. In the first bolded passage, you say it doesn't make you look scummy. Yet
That's 5 people. Not quite half of the players in the game. Most of the players who have been active today. And your response to all those people questioning you is to say the case "doesn't make you look scummy"? Clearly there's something there. If you really think that the case doesn't make you look scummy, then why does everyone else seem to think otherwise? As to the second post, you're going to "call out others." Great. When are you going to do that? I see that you tried, you posted two weak reads in hopes of shifting the discussion. What was the response to those reads? + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 04:42 ShiaoPi wrote: BroodkingExe on the other hand just disappeared, ignoring the case completely and if you examine the last two posts of his you will see the recurring things austinmcc mentioned in his case. He again shifts a bit of focus on other people who have not really been called out until now, but does not start his own case (see this:+ Show Spoiler + Okay I've looked at the filters and have come up with two other people I view as posting scummy. Jailbreaker. So far he has offered nothing to the conversation at all. He pointed out lurkers, defended himself, and gave a bunch of half-ass responses along with another unsupported scum list. He's trying to point fingers with no real direction, scum behavior to me. BioSC. His posts have for the most part been defensive. Even his big post against Darkfire was like that. He starts off saying that Dark is trying to push attention toward him, but then goes on to try and justify his past actions. The conviction seems more like a diversion to save his own hide than to lynch scum. You throw out a few names. Write a sentence or two. Really calling them out there. It didn't convince ShiaoPi; it doesn't convince me. You claim my case doesn't make you look scummy, but we all seem to disagree. You claim your plan is to call out others, but you never really do so. And most damning? You wait 5 or 6 hours to post that defense. Moreover, you posted during that time, so it's not like you were entirely away from the thread. You came back to post those comments about Jailbreaker and Bio, to respond to my FoS of all things, but you didn't take a moment to write out your defense? Why not? Waiting to form a decent response in scum QT? | ||
austinmcc
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QT = quick topic? Whatever it is. It's a separate forum that the scum team has access to. They can post in there, plan their actions, discuss how to respond to town. If you check some old games, usually the host will post the scum QT and an observer QT so everyone can read over what scum was thinking during the game and what anyone observing was thinking. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On May 12 2012 05:23 dahdum wrote: I'm backing off of anac at this point, he's still suspicious but I'm thinking reckless/bad town vs bad mafia. Too many people are after him first day, some have to be mafia, and his defense should have been better if he's getting help in a QT (as austinmcc mentioned). Will support a lynch of BioSC or BKE, do we have a current vote count? As of 3 EST we had Anacletus(8): Hyaach, FirmTofu, ShiaoPi, Dahdum, Darkfirex5, Anacletus, BioSC, BroodkingEXE BroodkingEXE(1): austinmcc Not Voting(4): Mufaa, Jailbreaker, Crossfire99, Unforgiven_ve Shiao unvoted. Crossfire voted Anac. Anac unvoted and voted BroodKing. So as it stands Anac(7) - Hyaach, FirmTofu, Dahdum, Darkfirex5, BioSC, BroodKingEXE, Crossfire BroodKingEXE(2) - austinmcc, Anacletus Not Voting(4): Mufaa, Jailbreaker, Unforgiven_ve, ShiaoPi As I count it, but don't take it as gospel. If you are thinking of swapping, and Hyaach was suspicious this morning and waiting to see Brood's response, that could potentially take us to 5/4, with 4 undecideds. We NEED active town to do anything though, otherwise we're already locked in. Mafia's got 3 votes to throw around, we might have a no-vote or two, so we just need clear decisions and stances. | ||
austinmcc
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Currently at 6 on Anac. 3 on BK. 4 not voting. Unless I've miscounted anyone. | ||
austinmcc
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Anac(5) - Hyaach, FirmTofu, Darkfirex5, BroodKingEXE, Crossfire BroodKingEXE(4) - austinmcc, Anacletus, dahdum, BioSC Not Voting(4): Mufaa, Jailbreaker, Unforgiven_ve, ShiaoPi Hyaach, Shiao, and Unforgiven have all come in and posted today, as has Cross. Cross came in and voted Anac, gave some reasoning as to why he still preferred that case. Hyaach I know you did the same, and were waiting on BK's answer. Any thoughts after seeing it? | ||
austinmcc
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On May 12 2012 06:17 Darkfirex5 wrote: I'd suggest filtering BKEXE's posts. From what I'm reading of what he has posted, there isnt anying that makes me want to switch the bandwagon onto him (fairly) last minute. There isnt enough posts from him to make the acusation he is more mafia than that of Anacletus. I dislike this massive wagon switch because instead of going with the safest mafia guess, we switch it last minute to someone i think we need more posts from to prove he is mafia. Filter both. Anac hasn't posted any more than Brood. If you think Anac is scummy and Brood isn't, keep your vote on Anac. But if you don't have enough posts to make a decision about Brood, I'm not sure how you had enough posts to make a decision about Anac. Granted, Anac's posts early were...bad. Bad bad. @Firm, I keep making stupid long posts with spoiler tags and quotes and colors, but that's really the meat of my argument at this point. On May 12 2012 06:40 FirmTofu wrote: I think Broodking's responses to the pressure are much more telling than the actual initial pressure itself. austinmcc is completely right that Broodking is the scummiest person alive now. I believed in that case. I thought Broodking looked scummy and wanted answers. The timing and content of those answers has sealed the deal for me. I'm now convinced. @ShiaoPi, how it's been playing out today is really what has me convinced. I'm still suspicious of Anac, but Brood has surpassed him in scumminess. Anac still feels scummy. Brood feels like scum. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On May 12 2012 06:52 BroodKingEXE wrote: What about my response doesn't convince you? I've made a couple responses on this. Your response maintained that the case "didn't make you look scummy" or something to that effect. Clearly it did. Clearly it continues to do so. It's not really a defense if you start it with "I've got nothing to defend." I'll let the old reasons lie. If nothing else, look, here's a NEW REASON I think you're scum. On May 12 2012 06:13 BroodKingEXE wrote: Am I not entitled to my own opinion? The things you have posted in your original case don't make me look that scummy. The thing that Tofu said and I said are different. He wants to lynch lurkers and I don't (at least not till a couple more days). I have called out others, do you see all those "useless one-liners"? They are calling out things I saw as potentially scummy. Do I have to wait and post a culmination of these posts all at once? For the most part you haven't actually looked at the majority of my posts for their content. Your final sentence doesn't make sense in terms of scum. Why would I not defend myself (as scum), when the town was obviously against me? Look at where waiting has got me, second-highest lynch canidate for day 1. It could just be I didn't see your post like I didn't see this response. You know, that could be it. That does give a reason why it took you so long to defend yourself. Makes sense. EXCEPT. Wait. What? What is that. Oh. + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 02:12 BroodKingEXE wrote: You can't keep a FoS on someone and be on the fence about them being scum. You obviously think he is town, but are setting yourself up so that it looks like you had suspicions on him. Hedging would allow you to say "I didn't think he was scum" if he flipped town. This strikes me as scummy. That's right. You quoted my entire post in your first set of responses, hours before you mounted any defense. Not only that, you addressed the FoS that was in my post. You clearly read it. If we mislynch you, I'm going to feel like such an ass. But you actually asking "What if I didn't read it?" when you QUOTE it and address one part of it? Not buying it. | ||
austinmcc
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However, I will note that the post still calls BroodKing scum, mention that he "scream[s] scum." Maybe he missed the case, being called scum out of the blue would give me an inkling that something might be up. | ||
austinmcc
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Anac(4) - Hyaach, Darkfirex5, BroodKingEXE, Crossfire BroodKingEXE(8) - austinmcc, Analectus, dahdum, BioSC, FirmTofu, ShiaoPi, Unforgiven_ve, Mufaa Not Voting(1): Jailbreaker | ||
austinmcc
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After the end of D1, we'll have 36 hours to look at voting, who swung when, who swung why, and how Brood (if votes stay as they are) flips. We ought to have some good info and leads in there. You, more than anyone else, are going to have to start looking through it and make some reads off the votes. Because come D2, you're our best candidate so far for a lynch. | ||
austinmcc
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I know I tunneled him and drove that wagon, but as the day kept going his responses just looked worse and worse. Time for some rereading and a hard look at how votes moved. | ||
austinmcc
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austinmcc
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Here's what I can add - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnX9O6cujxVmdFlvZkdqR1g0Qlh3d2dSaENrdW9DblE#gid=0 It's just a rough sketch, but that's the vote movement hour by hour. Yellow cells are changes in votes, and (#) shows the overall order of the changes, with exact times noted below. There seem to be three phases to the votes. An initial round from 3:00 - 4:30ish, where we first started digging into Brood's answers and discussing things. All the initial movement happened there - Shiao unvotes, Dahdum, Anac, and Bio unvote and vote Brood, and Crossfire votes Anac. As of that point, the vote was 5 for Anac, 4 for Brood, 4 not voting. Lynch was still on Anac. Then the lynch actually changes. Firm's vote became the deciding vote, tipping things to 5 for Brood, 4 for Anac, 1 for Jailbreaker, 3 not voting. After that, the remaining 3 Brood votes come from Shiao (who had unvoted earlier but not voted Brood yet), Mufaa (who had voted Jailbreaker), and Unforgiven (who had not voted). After looking at it a few times, nothing really stands out to me. Firm's vote may have changed the lynch target, but we were rolling in that direction and Shiao had already stated his vote was going to change depending on Brood's defense. Shiao's vote can either be read as perfectly normal (no longer convinced on Anac, waiting to decide) or as kind of scummy (unvoting early, watching to see where to vote later). I don't really read it as scummy. Mufaa's vote is odd, only because after a few hours of action on one subject, he pops up and just throws a vote in another direction. I don't quite know what to make of it. Things to consider - (1) the entire thread has been focused on one subject for a few hours, he pops in and throws a vote on Jailbreaker; (2) he changes his vote shortly thereafter; (3) his vote came at a critical time (a vote for Brood would have made it 5/5, with Anac still being lynched. Little unsure on how I read this as of right now. So, make of it what you will. Perhaps it strengthens some cases or weakens others. And maybe it's useful in the future. | ||
austinmcc
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I'm still suspicious of Anac. More and more people seem to be swinging towards bad townie play. I'd like to see more contributions from you Anac, because at this point I'm still unconvinced. I may have helped save you from a lynch AND given you a story to hide behind. I'm currently not really suspicious of anyone for "wagoning." When I initially posted on Anac and Brood, I legitimately felt that Anac was quite possibly townie, and Brood looked scummy. I stand by those reads. To the extent that you guys think those reads were sensible, then agreeing with them is NOT scummy play (in my mind). To me, I'm actually more suspicious of those whose votes didn't go Anac --> Brood. Darkfire. Others have already mentioned this. As votes are coming in on Anac, says it's a "weak bandwagon," with weak reasoning behind it. An hour and a half later, drops his vote on Anac. Now finds Anac scummiest. Then he defends Brood, saying he wants "more posts" from one of the more active players at that point and time (based purely on filter length). At night, we get this: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 11:32 Darkfirex5 wrote: I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that I have no idea what to make of that. He didn't think anac was scum until anac's self-vote, then decided anac was the safest/safer lynch? Complains about no solid evidence on Brood, but again, I think the evidence DID look bad for Brood. And if it didn't, what good evidence was there on Anac? Also, just very, very focused on bandwagoning in general, mentioning it a LOT. It's not necessarily a bad thing, and I still believe that at the end of D1, Brood looked the scummiest. Don't have enough on Unforgiven to think one way or the other. Mufaa's jailbreaker vote, as everyone has mentioned, is odd just because it stands out so much. Why vote Jailbreaker at the 11th hour? Almost no chance of getting a lynch without some serious analysis there. At the same time, as scum, why bring up a third vote candidate when you see that votes are starting to swap to a candidate you know is town? Just WIFOM, can't get anything out of that one right now. Hyaach posted this very early on yesterday + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 01:13 Hyaach wrote: There is basically 8 hours left in this day. We are hard pressed against time. On the BKE suspicions. I actually felt that it is a valid direction. If you filter his post, he does post often but its all fluff. There is never anything constructive to the town from him. You could argue that he pressuring everyone and asking of explanation is town play but it could also be mafia trying to fish out blue roles What say you BKE. On Anacletus While i hope it is your bad play. You could be the godfather and choose to appear innocent to all investigation. Anacletus, in your opinion who do you think is scum right now? On May 12 2012 12:20 Hyaach wrote: bad play town bad play. I was asleep from my last post to now. Going to read what happened inbetween. | ||
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As of right now, I've got a few people that I'd love to see post more. Mufaa, Unforgiven, Hyaach, Firm. I've got weak townie reads on some of you, but there's just not enough there to go on. Please try and get some substantive posting in today. Inactivity is killing us (and i've contributed), so we've got to try and turn this around. Also interested in hearing more from Dahdum and BioSC. You guys keep calling each other out, but haven't drummed up that much interest from the rest of us it seems. Can either of you really put something good together on the other, why you think they might be scummy beyond just OMGUS? Either one of you could have something there, but I don't find anything in your filters all that convincing. Asking for more from others doesn't really give you anything from me, so here's what I've got to contribute. Right now my top read, and my vote, are on Darkfire His D1 filter is some general talk about "bandwagoning" and pronouns. Votes Anac because he seems scummiest, but doesn't really give much of his own read. Just kind of going along with where votes were falling at the time. He pops in during the Anac/Brood discussion only to give the one post that everyone seems to find suspicious: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 06:17 Darkfirex5 wrote: I'd suggest filtering BKEXE's posts. From what I'm reading of what he has posted, there isnt anying that makes me want to switch the bandwagon onto him (fairly) last minute. There isnt enough posts from him to make the acusation he is more mafia than that of Anacletus. I dislike this massive wagon switch because instead of going with the safest mafia guess, we switch it last minute to someone i think we need more posts from to prove he is mafia. Dark, I need to really hear some defense of this statement from you. What made Anac the safest mafia guess? What reasons did you really have for voting him? You repeat this argument after D1, lamenting why nobody listened to you. Well, what should we have listened to? Give us a decent reason you voted Anac and didn't vote Brood. Brood's filter was one of the longer ones in the game at that point, as we've pointed out, and, in fact, Brood's filter during D1 was longer than yours is this entire game so far. If his filter wasn't long enough to give you evidence he was scum, your filter really isn't long enough to convince me that you're town. The only response you've given to anyone's suspicions on you so far is The reason i like to stay cautious is because when things start happening fast like at the end of day one, we may end up switching the bandwagon and lynching a townie, inthis case the cop. I also think suspicions on people are much different then placing a vote. By me saying im suspicious of people means okay, something doesnt seem right but i need more evidence for me to want to put a vote on them to be lynched. The reason i kept the slight defense on Anacletus was becuase it was still day 1 and its hard to decide on the lynching. I ended up voting on him anyway becuase he seemed more scummy than EXE and i didnt like risking the vote on EXE before more evidence was obtained from/for him to prove he was scummy. So i went with the person who seemed the scummiest at the time, Anacletus. This feels like really weak reasoning. I maintain that there wasn't much of a case on Anac, and there was a decent case on Brood. I don't know why you had enough evidence on Anac but not on Brood. You've never really clearly explained your choices, either during D1 or in response to people calling you out. And they have. Here's ShiaoPi: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 10:00 ShiaoPi wrote: I want to focus a bit on darkfirex5: If you read through his filter, you immediately see that there is simply a lot of weak halfcases he starts against several people, these include: Anacletus (where his vote ends up), BioSC, FirmTofu and dahdum. His posts are few and mostly within the context of the Anacletus discussion, in which he seemingly takes a diverting role with his suspicions. In regards to BKE he writes the following: + Show Spoiler + I'd suggest filtering BKEXE's posts. From what I'm reading of what he has posted, there isnt anying that makes me want to switch the bandwagon onto him (fairly) last minute. There isnt enough posts from him to make the acusation he is more mafia than that of Anacletus. I dislike this massive wagon switch because instead of going with the safest mafia guess, we switch it last minute to someone i think we need more posts from to prove he is mafia. I bolded the part which seemed weird to me. I could agree with his reasoning on not wanting to switch before, but BKE was actually one of the more active players so it seems like a sentence without anything backing it up. Generally speaking he is acting scummy as in non-comittal to his reads/suspicions and inactivity. Keep your eyes on him. On May 12 2012 20:36 ShiaoPi wrote: Darkfirex5 also posted the following: + Show Spoiler + I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that Which means he is totally ignoring my post about him. Just a general statement of regret and a somehow flawed logic of a "safer bet". I believe we have quite established that Anacletus can easily be lynched later if the need arises. Anyone else up for pressuring him as well? Here's me: + Show Spoiler + Darkfire. Others have already mentioned this. As votes are coming in on Anac, says it's a "weak bandwagon," with weak reasoning behind it. An hour and a half later, drops his vote on Anac. Now finds Anac scummiest. Then he defends Brood, saying he wants "more posts" from one of the more active players at that point and time (based purely on filter length). At night, we get this: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 11:32 Darkfirex5 wrote: I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that I have no idea what to make of that. He didn't think anac was scum until anac's self-vote, then decided anac was the safest/safer lynch? Complains about no solid evidence on Brood, but again, I think the evidence DID look bad for Brood. And if it didn't, what good evidence was there on Anac? Also, just very, very focused on bandwagoning in general, mentioning it a LOT. It's not necessarily a bad thing, and I still believe that at the end of D1, Brood looked the scummiest. After ShiaoPi gets killed, here's Darkfire - On May 13 2012 12:30 Darkfirex5 wrote: well now we have a lot to work with at least, i guess ShiaoPi was onto something, time to avenge him :D Another unhelpful post after an event (Just like his "safer" bet comment after D1). Without any recognition that one of ShiaoPi's main reads was him. Shiao had called out Darkfire twice, I'd chimed in, and Dark still hasn't responded to any of that. While he recently claims to have been trying to look into Mufaa and Dahdum, there's nothing there. His looking into Mufaa is just quoting a post from Shiao (without ever answering Shiao's questions about himself). I don't see him "looking into" dahdum at all, except after dahdum calls him out on typoing Unforgiven's name into a post instead of Anac. There really just doesn't seem to be anything in his posts at all. There's a lack of unhelpful reads. Multiple UNhelpful posts (after D1 and N1). A complete lack of response to Shiao and my concerns about him. Right now Darkfire, you're my number one scum read, and you get my vote. ##Vote: Darkfirex5 | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On December 30 2010 01:30 LSB wrote: What is mafia Bandwagoning- This is a town trait too That's right, whipping out old posts from one of the guides in the OP. I voted my strongest read D1, and I stand by it. Brood flipped town, that blows. Going to vote my strongest read D2. That read may change if something convincing comes up, but right now it hasn't. But I don't think all this talk of musical groups and horse-drawn transportation gets us anywhere. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but we can't no-lynch this game, Also, Darkfire HAS the scummiest play to me. I'm not voting because he's "being framed." I'm voting because of the same concerns I had before - I found his contributions during the you/Brood debates to be off. I find his comments after D1 and N1 to be off. I don't see anything of substance in his posts. He recently claims to be looking into Mufaa and dahdum, but again, all he did was quote someone else's post on Mufaa, and I don't see any sort of "looking into" on dahdum. He hasn't been helpful to town. He hasn't explained why. He's stated that he is doing something, but doesn't deliver. If you think I'm hopping on board because Darkfire is being "framed," who is framing him? I referenced Shiao's suspicions, yes. But I also referenced my own -- + Show Spoiler + On May 13 2012 07:41 austinmcc wrote: Assorted thoughts: ... Darkfire. Others have already mentioned this. As votes are coming in on Anac, says it's a "weak bandwagon," with weak reasoning behind it. An hour and a half later, drops his vote on Anac. Now finds Anac scummiest. Then he defends Brood, saying he wants "more posts" from one of the more active players at that point and time (based purely on filter length). At night, we get this: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 11:32 Darkfirex5 wrote: I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that I have no idea what to make of that. He didn't think anac was scum until anac's self-vote, then decided anac was the safest/safer lynch? Complains about no solid evidence on Brood, but again, I think the evidence DID look bad for Brood. And if it didn't, what good evidence was there on Anac? Also, just very, very focused on bandwagoning in general, mentioning it a LOT. It's not necessarily a bad thing, and I still believe that at the end of D1, Brood looked the scummiest. Me, I read Shiao's death as eliminating one of the more vocal townies who was presenting a lot of reads. I was actually a little suspicious of his play before he flipped, but his flip tells me that he was actually just a vocal townie trying to push reads and get discussion going. Until I've got any evidence otherwise, I'm going to assume that he was taken out for being a townie who was participating and trying to make progress, not for any convoluted master plan on the part of the mafia team. | ||
austinmcc
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FirmTofu, Unforgiven, Mufaa, you guys have all said you're looking through filters, reading up. Any thoughts? | ||
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austinmcc
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+ Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 06:17 Darkfirex5 wrote: I'd suggest filtering BKEXE's posts. From what I'm reading of what he has posted, there isnt anying that makes me want to switch the bandwagon onto him (fairly) last minute. There isnt enough posts from him to make the acusation he is more mafia than that of Anacletus. I dislike this massive wagon switch because instead of going with the safest mafia guess, we switch it last minute to someone i think we need more posts from to prove he is mafia. I still really want a specific answer there, and others have mentioned this as well. What made you so sure Anac was scum, specifically? What led you to that conclusion, kept you there over Brood, etc. The other issue is where you respond to BioSC: On May 14 2012 12:16 Darkfirex5 wrote: BioSC filter my last few posts, i havent been talking about you. I've been trying to look into Mufaa and dahdum. You said you weren't getting anything off Mufaa, but what about dahdum? IF you're town, and IF you're going to be the lynch today, we need as much from you as we can get. What did you really look at from each, what reads did you get? I'm absolutely in agreement on the lurkers, and it may be my newbishness, but I'm having a hard time lynching someone who is lurking or semi-lurking over someone where I've got a few posts to analyze and they seem off. | ||
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On May 15 2012 07:24 Mufaa wrote: I voted for you because although I would like to vote dahdum I made a case and no one else seemed to like it as much. And you dodged half of my case on you, so I can hardly see why I should change my vote. Gah. We've got 2 players with 2 votes. Right now 2 votes to lynch. No real reason to be gaming things given that we don't need majority to lynch. Vote your biggest read. | ||
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austinmcc
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Reading now Dark | ||
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I wanted to call you out all day Crossfire but figured I'd see if you didn't post and got modkilled. Now I feel dumb for not pushing you at all. | ||
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There are 3 remaining mafia. You realize that means that all 3 of them could have logged on FORTY EIGHT HOURS AGO, voted for one person with zero explanation, nothing at all, and then never logged on again during D2. That person would have been lynched. With 10 bodies in this game, we already let mafia control a lynch if they wanted to. That's absolutely ridiculous. If you don't have time for this, I'm asking you to replace out or ask to be modkilled. If you're mafia and lurking, great job there. If you're town and lurking, you are actively hurting town and ruining this game for the rest of town. If you don't have time to read, don't kill this game, because you can't be enjoying this. Sorry dark. | ||
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I'm going to walk away for some of this evening, because right now all I want to do is policy lynch. I will try and get back on and look into your thoughts on scumteams. Is your main train of thought right now a me/Bio + mufaa + crossfire team? Or is it me + bio + mufaa (from before the deadline)? Or me + anac + someone? Or...not me. | ||
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I'm prodding you recently posted stuff and I've agreed with a lot of your analysis. We've both voted to lynch townies each day, but I think on similar reasoning. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I tunneled Brood and I pushed him on everyone, and he flipped town. D2 I voted Darkfire, but I didn't push it on anyone nearly as hard. I wasn't trying to gain votes on him, actually thought he was scummy but not pushing it like I did with Brood. If you think I'm scummy, read over what I wrote about each. I'm not the only one who voted them, although I may have been the most vocal. But if you agree with my reasoning, if you also thought they looked scummy, then don't find me scummy because I ended up being in the majority of two townie lynches. Heck, maybe we can just call the person I vote for tomorrow confirmed town. I'm still just frustrated and so not gonna post anything major, but right now I will say that my most confident read is of FirmTofu as town (which of course now means he's probably scum). His votes have been on the same people as mine have, and we seem to have similar reasoning. I'm town, so I assume he is as well. If you think I'm scummy because of my votes or because I've been so vocal/wrong, there may not be much I can do to change your mind. If you think I'm scummy for some other reason, let me know. Got N2 at least to clear up anything, and I'll try to be active. Specifically for Unforgiven, I started collecting links to past minis and newbie games to show you that 12/13-man games are 3 mafia under C9++. However, some of the older newbie games are 13/14-man with 4 scum. If I'd seen those, I wouldn't have posted anything about "3 mafia." I assumed 3 because I've followed the last few minis and seen mainly 3-man scum teams, and I thought that the 9-man games were 2 scum and 12/13-man games were 3 scum. If it looks like a scumslip, so be it. | ||
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Firmtofu - + Show Spoiler + I get a town read. Relatively vocal, and has had similar votes and reasoning behind them as I have. Commence the headgames, but I also get a townie feeling from this post - + Show Spoiler + On May 14 2012 12:18 FirmTofu wrote: Real quick, I'm not done reading, but I just had to quickly point this out. NO ONE seems to be questioning austinmcc at all? wtf. Look at the facts guys. This guy completely switched the direction of a lynch on a scummy player onto a blue town. Yeah, he's been playing pro-town, but that doesn't negate the fact that his actions have led to a deficit in our numbers! If Anacletus flips mafia, austinmcc is nearly certainly mafia. Everything points to it. Buddying is already evident in Anacletus' posts but I'm going to read more to find a substantial argument in favor of this. Mufaa - + Show Spoiler + Mild town read. Wasn't very vocal early on, but didn't find Anac scummy in the early game. IF anac is scum, then this looks quite bad for mufaa. IF he's not, then this gives me a town vibe. D2 posted some decent stuff with reads on darkfire and dahdum - + Show Spoiler + On May 15 2012 02:34 Mufaa wrote: Ok, here we go. Strongest reads for me so far are Dahdum and Darkfire. Dahdum + Show Spoiler + On May 10 2012 15:18 dahdum wrote: I'm on this wagon, for BKE's reason and the "I hope you aren't mafia" statement. Let's hear more from you Firm. ##Vote FirmTofu Dahdum's Early Game posts stood out to me. First he votes Tofu off of his early post to break the ice and a reason BKE prodivded. No content of his own really yet. Later on he says that he knows FirmTofu's style better than anyone else "We were in the last game together so I also have a better sense of his style than I do of the rest of you." To me this comes off a lot like Dahdum is either trying to establish his authority on FirmTofu so he can make a push on him later (Dahdum possibly scum in this case) or defend him (Possible scum buddies). + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2012 05:16 dahdum wrote: I'm at work so can't respond fully, but Tofu's response is reasonable and in line with what I expect from him as Town. So I am jumping on this new wagon, because reasons. ##Unvote ##Vote Anacletus On May 11 2012 06:58 dahdum wrote: Actually I believe I said because reasons. If we never get any wagons going, we never pressure mafia into having to take a vote/stance. I'm at work so I can't write long explanations, but since I 100% want somebody to die today, I'm fine voting for whomever the current scummiest is. No-lynch is not an option. These two quotes are what originally got me checking into Dahdum. First he votes for Anac saying "because reasons." He might as well post "because I feel like it" at that point. Then when he is called out on stating his reasoning as "because" he says "I said because reasons." There is absolutely no benefit for town by playing like this. Then he does explain his reasons for wanting bandwagons in general, butJailbreaker was asking about his reasons for the Anac bandwagon. His only other content is a bandwagon jump to BKE and a very weak case on BioSC. Darkfirex5 My suspicions of him aren't as strong, but I still have a few things I'm curious about. + Show Spoiler + On May 10 2012 13:10 Darkfirex5 wrote: Well, might as well get started first game :3 I'm questioning why do you speak about town in third person as if you are speaking as if town isnt including yourself, so im asking why are you not using "we" and refering to town as a "they." Also you are justifying killing town just because they arent active, a vote helps even if they are a lurker, its another person who can still vote and help kill off all of the mafia. He's suspicious of BioSC, who says town/they instead of us/we. While this is something of note while building a case it isn't enough to build a case on its own. + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2012 06:43 Darkfirex5 wrote: sorry im a student so i have school, currently i think this is a weak bandwagon forming on Anacletus. While his defense is weak: Yet the first person to begin the voting on Anacletus was Hyaach, his reasoning seemed just as weak: The start of this "bandwagon" is begining to form off of this, though Anacletus did have a poor response which made him more suspicious the voting on him lacks solid reasoning. I bolded the part im talking about (didnt cut out any as to take something out of context^). Another thing now is that Tofu anounces the role of being a townie, and the reason (supposidly) why Anacletus targeted him was because he knew he was town (because he was mafia)? Now im questioning then why did he target you (tofu) only because you were town. Why initiate like that on a post that seemed insignifigant. I'm building suspicion on the reasoning for starting this bandwagon on Anacletus. Im still not placing a vote down yet but the starting reasonings for the votes lacks evidence and the follow up points (to me dont seem solid). Lastly: I was refering to why you said town gets a nice snipe instead of we are geting a nice snipe, i was only adding on some slight pressure on the begining, which was similar to other posts. The way you get very defensive and attack my one post only asking about your reference to town/mafia. FOS: BioSc From your posts folowing, i think less of you as being mafia, and more so townie, that doesnt mean i wont continue keeping an eye on you too. Now take this massive post Darkfire "contributed." The first 3/4 of it are on how this is a weak bandwagon case on Anac, with the last 1/4 on a wording dispute. From there he posts mostly fluff until this gem. How do you know ShiaoPi was on to something? Austin and Anac both offered easy suggestions to why the mafia voted the way they did other than that they wanted to silence the person was closest to discovering them (Silencing vocal townies to stiffle discussion,attempting to frame the people on his list, etc...). Why should we believe this was just a careless post and not a slip? Dahdum - + Show Spoiler + Looks pretty scummy to me. 3 different votes day 1: + Show Spoiler + On May 10 2012 15:18 dahdum wrote: I'm on this wagon, for BKE's reason and the "I hope you aren't mafia" statement. Let's hear more from you Firm. ##Vote FirmTofu On May 11 2012 05:16 dahdum wrote: I'm at work so can't respond fully, but Tofu's response is reasonable and in line with what I expect from him as Town. So I am jumping on this new wagon, because reasons. ##Unvote ##Vote Anacletus On May 12 2012 05:33 dahdum wrote: ##unvote ##Vote BroodKingEXE Might not be enough to swing it, but I feel more comfortable lynchying BKE than Anac at this point. On May 11 2012 11:45 dahdum wrote: Here are my reads and yes I know this is partially a rehash of events. --Scummy List - -- Most To Least Analectus - No point summarizing so far, chief suspect. Actually votes for himself after attempting to throw his vote away without reason, and says "I never said I was protown". Not acting like town. Hyaach - Bandwagons, no pressure at all. Urges caution. Scummy. BioSC - Highly defensive, focuses on Analectus. Darkfirex5 - Keeps cautioning against bandwagons and voting too early, sounds like scum trying to defend Analectus. Last post says he's voting against Unforgiven but then botches the vote for Analectus? Crossfire99 - Obsessed with Analectus, doesn't discuss anyone else. BKE - Not providing reads, only a semi-baseless vote which helped get the game going. Talks about scum will do and urges caution. Scummy. Jailbreaker - Worried about people pressuring too much, defensive, not contributing reads, promises something soon. Mufaa - Very few posts but cites RL reason and reiterates basic strategy. Jumps on Analectus for technicality, contributes no reads on anyone else. Austinmcc - Rightly pressures Analectus for his "i don't have much to add" vote, continues to lay one the pressure but never calls him out as scum or gives any real reads/analysis. FirmTofu - Defends the bandwagon well, placing reasonable pressure on Analectus. Compared to last game he seems more thoughtful however, so I'm suspicious of that. ShiaoPi - Jumps on Hyaach, lots of analysis. The huge post is somewhat indicative of a scum play, but I concur with his picks (Analectus/Hyaach) so far. Crossfire - + Show Spoiler + So far, Crossfire doesn't really seem to have done ANY scumhunting. D1 he discusses the votes on firm, the votes on anac, the Brood/Anac votes, but never really says anything about anyone beyond those. Sticking solely to discussion of the major targets could be a move to blend in, not provide anything substantive. + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 14:10 Crossfire99 wrote: Ok I'm going to summarize what I feel happened at the end of the day just to put everything into context WALL OF TEXT WENT HERE Skip to N1, what do we get from Crossfire? + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 14:55 Crossfire99 wrote: I also want other people's opinions on this. I am kinda on the other side of the issue as you, unforgiven. In my last game a lot of people said no one should post during the night except for like the last 5 min, so mafia couldn't do any night actions based on it. This meant the night was dead and no one discussed anything. I feel that if everyone freely discusses everyone can start to get on the same page and focus on a few people. But I'm not sure if the discussion is worth it if mafia can base night actions off of it. ugh. I just don't know what's best. what are everyone else's thoughts? On May 13 2012 01:21 Crossfire99 wrote: Very good points on unforgiven, Shaopi. I would definitely like to hear his response to your case. The only thing I disagree about your case is the first point about this quote + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 12:50 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Guys, I just relized something, we should not discuss anything at night, that's just helps the mafia, they will get The player whit the better read. We should wait and don't make any deep analysis, what do you think? Just so this doesn't get lost in my paragraph. unforgiven, what is your response to shaopi's case on you. He brings up good points. Then D2...lurk lurk. Lurk lurk lurk. Posts, leaves, done. I'm quite suspicious of cross at this point. He's done ZERO scumhunting, he fished for info N1, and he lurked. Probably my top scumread right now. Unforgiven - + Show Spoiler + All I have is a gut slightly townie read. The lurking hurts us bad, and I reeeeeally don't like it, but for some reason his concern over me thinking there were 3 mafia members strikes me as townie. I could interpret it two ways: (1) trying to scumhunt and believing that to be a slip on my part; or (2) mafia going "HOW DOES HE KNOW OUR NUMBERS?" My gut impression is the first, and he's not a scum candidate for me right at this second. Currently I just have a very, very slightly town read on him and feel like others are just scummier. Hyaach - + Show Spoiler + There's not much there. The timezone difference accounts for some of that, because it looks like he's asleep pre-deadline time. But the lurking D2 doesn't help his case. You've participated some when you've been around, please continue and get some content out during N2 or D3. If you don't, it's anti-town enough that I kind of have to read you as scummy. But not enough to really go on at this point. Bio and Anac are going to take me a little more work, but I wanted to go ahead and post this. I guess right now I'm looking at a scumteam of Dahdum/Crossfire/+1, which might come out of Bio or Anac. I need to look more at BioSC and Dahdum's little spat with each other, perhaps they're both intentionally making weak cases on the other to fill the thread, and if one got lynched the other could try to turn that into some town cred. Will read over Anac, I'm not as confident in my newbie town read as I was D1, but I want to find some actual reasons why and look harder. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
What really sticks out to me is this post - On May 11 2012 00:09 Anacletus wrote: I've played mafia before. That being said nothing that I say is guaranteed so playing one playstyle will probably let them metagame us. I was only throwing out my 2 cents. Also, maybe I'm metagaming knowing mafia will read this. The hole goes deeper. I alluded to it D1, + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2012 00:39 austinmcc wrote: Anacletus, why, specifically, did you vote Tofu? All you've said is: In your original vote. But you didn't tell us what you found suspicious. Say you think this, why vote Tofu? He posted once, 40 minutes into the game, and hasn't been active. That's not vocal in chat. His activity so far this game doesn't fit the pattern that you believe to be scummy. Town's job isn't to care about what gameplan mafia may or may not have. Our job is to hunt scum. To me, your vote on Tofu, especially as it runs against your own reasoning, looks scummy or newbie townish. Yet you say you've played games elsewhere before. I don't know whether to slot Anac in as the third mafia, whether to think maybe dahdum and BioSC were just looking to make weak cases on each other and gain town cred if one was lynched and flipped scum, or whether there's another third mafia member out there. Relatively confident in those other two reads, and I can't really adopt some plan of "Assume everyone I read as scum is town," because that's just too confusing. I'll post more when I get enough free time and a computer, but it will be after the deadline. If nothing else, should I be the nightkill, hopefully some of this will be helpful. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On May 16 2012 06:16 Crossfire99 wrote: Hmmm, curiously I just noticed in your last post, you leave out Anacletus and Bio in your reads. Why? Are they your scumbuddies? On May 16 2012 03:42 austinmcc wrote: Bio and Anac are going to take me a little more work, but I wanted to go ahead and post this. I guess right now I'm looking at a scumteam of Dahdum/Crossfire/+1, which might come out of Bio or Anac. I need to look more at BioSC and Dahdum's little spat with each other, perhaps they're both intentionally making weak cases on the other to fill the thread, and if one got lynched the other could try to turn that into some town cred. Will read over Anac, I'm not as confident in my newbie town read as I was D1, but I want to find some actual reasons why and look harder. Gave my reasoning there. Anac I want to really sit and think on, that's going to take me some time. I post from work during the day, and can't set aside the time to drill down on his posts, analyze them, type out thoughts. That's gotta wait for me getting home. It's easy to analyze those who haven't been too active, but it's more difficult to actually give analysis on Anac, because he was very active, we've had a lot of accusations/suspicions concerning him, and a lot of OTHER reads depend on what his alignment is. Anac's alignment really determines a lot of people's reads from what I can tell. Left out Bio because, as I said, I want to look more at the exchanged between him and dahdum and see what I get. Also, let's say I left the two of them out and we're all scumbuddies. That sure seems like a TERRIBLE PLAN. Why on earth would I telegraph something like that? I've given reasoning for my reads, made arguments, I haven't been illogical so far. Why would I randomly go, herp derp I don't want to make reads on mafia, maybe nobody will notice. IF i die tonight, you'll know I'm not scum. IF i don't, AND I don't post anything on the two of them, THEN come talk to me. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On May 16 2012 06:24 Crossfire99 wrote: Now he conveniently states that he is still suspicious of Anac, but not suspicious enough to warrant a vote. Hmmm? I definitely think you are trying to defend your scumbuddy, but still trying to keep your hands clean if he is lynched over your wishes by saying you were still suspicious. Pretty much half the players were suspicious of him D1 but didn't vote for him? Go read the thread. We had a lot of "I'm still not convinced, but he can't hurt us D2" (Yes, I argued that and others accepted it). Here's Shiao. Goes from - + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 00:22 ShiaoPi wrote: @austinmcc: Considering your thoughts on Anacletus: There is always the possibility of bad town play instead of scummy play. But doesn't the defense of Anacletus (or more the lack of) seem weird to you? Also his lack of good contributions? I guess bad townie play is always a possibility, but for now I stand by my vote. On the accusations on BroodKingEXE: You bring up some good analysis. I guess I overlooked those aspects of his posts because I was more busy defending my posts against him than analyzing. I'll have to reread his filter thoroughly though, before doing anything. On May 12 2012 04:42 ShiaoPi wrote: As it stands right now, Anacletus will get lynched as he has the most votes. And a lynch on him is fine on my watch as well. Just want to get something more telling from BroodkingEXE. He seems to have conveniently vanished as pressure against him mounted up. As crappy as it was Anacletus did try to defend himself. He still is one of the bigger scumreads right now and as austinmcc argued correctly he has absolutely zero credibility right now. So as scum, who might attempt to sway town's discussion he is worthless at the moment until he steps it up and starts to give us reasons to believe him again. BroodkingExe on the other hand just disappeared, ignoring the case completely and if you examine the last two posts of his you will see the recurring things austinmcc mentioned in his case. He again shifts a bit of focus on other people who have not really been called out until now, but does not start his own case (see this:+ Show Spoiler + Okay I've looked at the filters and have come up with two other people I view as posting scummy. Jailbreaker. So far he has offered nothing to the conversation at all. He pointed out lurkers, defended himself, and gave a bunch of half-ass responses along with another unsupported scum list. He's trying to point fingers with no real direction, scum behavior to me. BioSC. His posts have for the most part been defensive. Even his big post against Darkfire was like that. He starts off saying that Dark is trying to push attention toward him, but then goes on to try and justify his past actions. The conviction seems more like a diversion to save his own hide than to lynch scum. His other post calls out austinmcc as scummy for repeating his beliefs on Anacletus (that he is a bad townie but not necessarily mafia). BroodkingEXE's post were done after austinmcc's case against him and yet he managed to ignore it completely. So either 1) He did not see/read austinmcc's post (highly unlikely) 2) He did read it and chose to ignore it as he seems safe enough with the current votecount So the only way to get him into talking seems to be to unvote one by one and making him think of his own position of less than secure. I just want to hear more from him, if we do not get him to talk and Anacletus is lynched, at least we will know Anacletus' role and from there on we have more room to expand our discussion. Either way they are both top priorities for pressure/questioning regardless of whom we lynch today. On May 12 2012 07:09 ShiaoPi wrote: In the end (with less than an hour to lynchtime) if I have to pick between Anacletus and BroodKingEXE I'll have to go with BroodKingEXE, his lynch seems more useful to me. Since even if we mislynch we gain more information from his flip than from Anacletus' ##vote BroodKingEXE Unless something drastic happens, my vote stays. Here's dahdum - + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 05:23 dahdum wrote: I'm backing off of anac at this point, he's still suspicious but I'm thinking reckless/bad town vs bad mafia. Too many people are after him first day, some have to be mafia, and his defense should have been better if he's getting help in a QT (as austinmcc mentioned). Will support a lynch of BioSC or BKE, do we have a current vote count? Here's BioSC - + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 04:14 BioSC wrote: Yes, we are close to lynch time, and Brood hasn't shown himself for 2+ hours. However, I don't like the precedence swapping the bandwagon onto him says about play. I feel like it gives scum an out. "Well, even though my posts were scummy, and the majority of town have been calling me out on it, and I've yet to offer anything positive to town, you guys forgave Ana, why not forgive me?" For now, my vote stays as is. As we wind down to time, though, what does that mean if Brood doesn't show up till night starts? What is our plan before then? Do we all switch the bandwagon to Brood for a last minute lynch? Or is it a last minute ploy by mafia to save scum that has been playing badly? On May 12 2012 04:45 BioSC wrote: Which is a fair conclusion. I am also voting for the person I believe is the most scummy, which is Anac. Your points on Brood, however, haven't been lost on me. Reading through his filter along with your case against him definitely raises my suspicions towards him. My second half of the post was more of a discussion starter than a concrete plan for us to follow. As of right now, the only people on and even discussing the case this close to lynch is you, me, and ShiaoPi. If you want to get your lynch case through, the best way to do that is discussion, and by trying to convince the 4 non-voters as of yet to vote your way, but even then, I feel like the case against Anac is already too stacked against him to change. On May 12 2012 05:45 BioSC wrote: Your tunnelling on me makes absolutely no sense. We've had pretty much the exact same reads on people, excepting of course that for whatever strange reason you believe I'm playing scummy. I've already asked you for reasons on why you think I'm scum, but frankly they are pretty tame and only serve to distract and cause more arguments. + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2012 12:57 dahdum wrote: @biosc Sure, this is why I think you're scummy: You're agreeing with me here, but then the "they would be as bad as scum" phrase really seems out of place. My first suspicion based on that. By throwing your suspicions I assume you mean the phrase "back half of his post is worthy of discussion". Super passive and non-committal. Sounds like something one scum says to another. I'd also like to hear more on who you think is suspicious beyond Analectus? What is your goal here? You believe I'm scum, but have the same reads as a scum? I'm not even sure you follow your own logic. We are discussing the lynch of Anacletus or BroodKingExe, Why would you bring me into this discussion, if not to distract from what we are discussing. If you have a case against me, make it. So far your suspicions of me have been weak at best, so I hope that if you are making a case, it's better than "He said some cryptic things on day 1", and "He had a scum read on one of my reads, but said something I believe to be scumtalk" Honestly this whole half-assed commited case you have against me just strengthens my case for you being scum. Back to the case at hand. I've stated multiple times that I believe Anacletus to be scum, however, with the recent case against BXE, I'm inclined to swap my vote to him. The biggest reason I am to swap my vote over, is this line in Austin's case. + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 05:08 austinmcc wrote: If that makes sense, and recent action just doesn't support a scenario where Anac is scum and Brood is town, then we should take out Brood. We can deal with Anac later if he IS scum, because he's got no chance to be really disruptive after his start. Both players have had people call them out on being scummy. However, due to Anac losing all credit with the town, regardless of affiliation, it would be tough for him ,should he be mafia, to get any ball rolling on someone else in town. It's not a forgiveness for bad play, its a delay in action for a scum target appearing more scummy near the end of the day. ## Unvote ## Vote BroodKingEXE In fact, here's YOU on D1 - + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 05:03 Crossfire99 wrote: Sorry for being so inactive, I’ve been very busy today. I haven’t been able to keep up with the thread very much, so I’ll focus on two things. My current position on Anacletus and this newfound suspicion on BroodKingEXE In relation to Anacletus: So far he has said he has had no information + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2012 09:22 Anacletus wrote: I don't have any information. So no benefits and no doubts shall be given then I assume? My personal feelings as of right now is that BioSC is mafia. He's been super passive while we've been at each others throats and has been trying to redirect attention off of himself. On May 12 2012 01:01 Anacletus wrote: Yeah, it's just bad town play. I really hope you guys don't lynch me and let the cop check me or something. In the beginning I was just being reckless to start up the conversations. I've said it multiple times, but I'll say it again, I have no interest in hanging anyone yet as everything is just inconclusive guesses. -------------------------------------- Now onto BroodKingEXE: I will start with this quote from ausitnmcc. It is his case against Brood. + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2012 22:38 austinmcc wrote: My thoughts on Anacletus: His play does not feel like good townie play. I brought that up earlier, we've all discussed it by now, and I think we all seem to come to the same conclusion. While I would support a lynch of Anacletus, I think we have better targets. I'll look through his responses more today, but for now I would prefer to look elsewhere, and see how Anacletus continues to play. Right now, "not good townie play" is my read, but I'm not convinced that his play is scummy and not just bad townie play. However, we've got a quarter of D1 left, and I want to throw this case out and push it a little, see what comes of it. My top scum read: BroodKingEXE. BroodKingEXE filter - http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707&user=233869 Skip 2/3 of the first page. It's pregame. He's active, vocal, chatting a lot with everyone in the pregame. Doesn't really mean anything. First posts: + Show Spoiler + On May 10 2012 12:53 BroodKingEXE wrote: /confirm Lynching lurkers in the early game not a good idea. My reasoning is that people need to be able to post before we persecute them. Something to think about lurkers, Mafia will try to lurk, but their posts will have more intent behind each one. Why? Every post they make is going to push its own idea of an agenda, but the more they post the more the idea could be misinterpreted. Before we lynch a lurker let's look at the intent of the post: a Mafia agenda push or a helpful Townie post. + Show Spoiler + On May 10 2012 13:18 BroodKingEXE wrote: Not true, lynching an inactive is a waste. Scum wants us to not lynch them. We can call lurkers out, and they have to respond. They don't respond, we start looking at them. Lynching, because they are lurkers is stupid. + Show Spoiler + On May 10 2012 13:48 BroodKingEXE wrote: What are you implying here? We should wait for everyone to post before coming to conclusions? That seems scummy to me, we should be analyzing peoples posts right now. You just created a reason for you not to post. Convince your not scum. ##Vote: Firm Tofu These aren't entirely incompatible. Lynching lurkers bad, pressuring them good, let people post before we jump to conclusions. That seems townie, fine and dandy, but then he fires off the very first vote of the game on FirmTofu. Why? Because FirmTofu posted + Show Spoiler + On May 10 2012 08:36 FirmTofu wrote: Hi again dahdum! I hope you aren't mafia again >< I'm all for lynching a lurker, but we should definitely wait a bit for everyone to have a chance to post. Look at the bolded part of Broodking's first post. Now back to me. Now back to the bolded part of FirmTofu's post. Now back to me. Anything? That's the same exact thought process. And yet when FirmTofu vocalizes that, Broodking fires off the first vote of the game. I still don't agree with that vote at all, even if it was just to "pressure" someone, because there's absolutely no grounds for voting someone because they express a thought you just expressed slightly earlier. From then on out, it's a series of one-liner and response posts, but never really DOING anything. Last night (eastern time), BroodKing had one of the longest filters, and yet the only substantive post was him voting FirmTofu off the bat. For example: + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2012 03:30 BroodKingEXE wrote: You can withhold your vote but you still need to scum hunt. + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2012 04:01 BroodKingEXE wrote: This post makes sense, Anacletus' play has been pretty wierd. I need to hear a response from him before I vote though. This line stood out to me. BroodKing threw out of FIRST vote of the game on Tofu, before there was play to analyze and before Tofu responded to anything. Why does he need a response now to vote? After that, he starts giving responses to other people, specifically ShiaoPi's reads, but doesn't really add anything of substance. scummy + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2012 04:05 BroodKingEXE wrote: @Hyaach Why did you put your vote on Ancletus? You had just as much reasoning as him. That is none. On May 11 2012 04:33 BroodKingEXE wrote: WOAH WOAH WOAH WOAH WOAH!!!! ShiaoPi are you defending Hyaach? A null read? He has provided zero evidence for his vote. Your whole list is terrible, it provides nothing more than a bunch "I'm leaning town, but you can never be sure reads". I smell a scumwagon. On May 11 2012 05:38 BroodKingEXE wrote: Your big post brings up a list of null reads. Its misleading due to its size when its content is a bunch of reiteration of events. Scum will make posts like this to make themselves seem useful. If you actually read your reasoning for voting for anacletus it is: he was not eager, a post lacking logic, and a bandwagon. The first two could be townie mistakes and bandwagons aren't very effective when people have strong objections to the canidate. On the other hand, you have voted with the person you first thought was scum and had dropped your suspicions based on...nothing. On May 11 2012 09:09 BroodKingEXE wrote: Just needed explanation for your vote/post. This canidate seems really rushed though, people haven't looked at his latest posts for signs of scumminess. I agree that his past posts are suspicious, but we need to look at his current posts. Too much like a wagon for me to vote for him yet. Note that at this point, ShiaoPi has just thrown out the first real list of reads we had from anyone. BroodKing posts a couple times concerning the list, but doesn't really add anything. While he gets information out of ShiaoPi, he doesn't really provide any himself. At no point in those posts does he agree with a read or disagree with a read, rather, he simply acknowledges that reads were made and ShiaoPi voted. This is also the first point we begin to move AWAY from the Anacletus discussion (which has run its course at this point), and BroodKing continues to ask for information based on ShiaoPi's vote for Anacletus. Finally, compare his filter from this game with his filter from Newbie VIII, where he was town. + Show Spoiler + There are some posts in a similar style to his posts here, but a LOT of @x and @y, what do you guys think about z. Lots of longer discussions, paragraphs, lists. SOME of that is because he was the lynch target D1 and so had to be active and defend himself. But his townie posts from VIII feel more robust and they contribute, whereas his posts so far in XIII do not. ------------------------------- Anacletus's play still feels more bad than scummy. I would like to let him live for now, and see if he starts to really contribute. Right now he has 0 town cred, so if he's mafia he can't actively muck up town discussion. If we back off the pressure, MAYBE he mounts a decent defense and provides some good reads, because...he's got to do that to get any cred back. If not? We lynch him later, or we see if we can get any information N1 from blue roles that push us forward. Compared to Anacletus though, BroodKingEXE looks actively scummy. So far he hasn't contributed anything of note except the first vote of the game, which made little sense. He's supports getting responses before voting, but then votes without a response from FirmTofu. He wants scumhunting and reasoning, but has provided none. Again, I'm not opposed to an Anacletus lynch, but I would prefer to lynch the player that seems scummiest, which is BroodKing. ##Vote BroodKingEXE ##FOS: Anacletus Dahdum, I'm especially interested in hearing your thoughts on this, as you read BroodKing to be scummy as well. I didn't really notice him until I looked through all the filters last night and realized he was my best scumread. Do you agree with my reasoning? Did you have different reasoning? I agree with some of what Austin has said because when I did my own read through of Brood’s filter, it is just a mess of garbage posts. He also hypocritically accuses Firmtofu and votes for him because Formtofu said to wait until everyone has posted before judging them evev though he said the same thing. But, I will say that his redeeming quality is that he is pretty active and is suspicios of these giant “here are my reads for every person in the game” posts. I don’t like these posts that much because as he pointed out, they are an easy way for scum to hide and seem like they are doing work, but in reality they aren’t. This means that he is less scummy in my eyes than Anacletus, but I am going to keep my eye on him in the future. ##Vote Anacletus So yes. I "conveniently" state I'm suspicious of Anac, but voted someone else. Oh no. Turns out practically half of us were suspicious of Anac but voted elsewhere. In fact, YOU were suspicious of Brood, "keeping your eye on him," but voted Anac. If being suspicious of one of those two and voting for the other is a scumtell, then we're in big trouble because we're ALL scum. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On May 16 2012 10:59 FirmTofu wrote: I'm pretty sure I'm 100% dead by tonight because I can't see mafia killing anyone else besides austin. However, austin is suspected of mafia for his actions, so I doubt he'll be dying today. Please contribute. It's perfectly okay if you think I'm mafia, just tell us who your three top candidates for mafia are. Been expecting you to be the target as well. No sense taking me out when I'm sure I'll get some heat tomorrow. As for my reads, right now they're the same as above: dahdum, crossfire, _____ Got stuck out later than I wanted, so will have to fill in the third tomorrow. Since we've got some suspicions on Bio, I'll really need to take a look at him. Firm, you suspect both dahdum and Bio? | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Okay, so I read back through things looking at BioSC and his interactions with others. The most notable thing that pops out to me, and, granted, it's not a lot to go on, is that both dahdum and dark were suspcious of BioSC. They've both flipped town. dahdum started off thinking bio was scummy. Supported a Bio or Brood lynch D1, voted Bio quickly D2. There's not a ton there though, mainly talk of him playing passively and then getting defensive when challenged. My own thoughts kind of support that, Anac and Dark both suspicious of Bio D1 and he then turns around on them and is suspicious of them. Darkfire starts out suspicious of Bio for semantics, which I don't find particularly convincing. + Show Spoiler + On May 10 2012 13:10 Darkfirex5 wrote: Well, might as well get started first game :3 I'm questioning why do you speak about town in third person as if you are speaking as if town isnt including yourself, so im asking why are you not using "we" and refering to town as a "they." Also you are justifying killing town just because they arent active, a vote helps even if they are a lurker, its another person who can still vote and help kill off all of the mafia. On May 14 2012 12:16 Darkfirex5 wrote: SNIPPED BioSC filter my last few posts, i havent been talking about you. I've been trying to look into Mufaa and dahdum. I've shifted away from you and i still want Analcetus to be lynched becuase if he pops mafia, it will be easy to track who saved him from the first lynch. In response to you directly, I was on edge with you being mafia but i began thinking you were protown. Again recently I've begun looking at dahdum and Mufaa. Also i was trying to poke at your defensive play, becuase you seem to always respond hyper defensive. I was trying to get more information out of you by knowing that i had an FOS on you. But now, moving ahead i think the biggest target is mufaa dahdun and Anacletus. I'll look to analyze material when i get back from school. On May 15 2012 07:55 Darkfirex5 wrote: SNIPPED With this i now find Dahdum townie as well because though he had suspicions on BioSC and Anacletus. I havent been able to clear BioSC though which is why i dont think that dahdum is more likely to be mafia. I think that dahdum as well is pro town more so. WIth Mufaa though he has waited twice now to join a majority vote. Well shit now, i think mufaa is townie as well, debatably now because of the defense on Anacletus. Huh well now that leaves BioSC and lurkers.... ##Unvote ##Vote BioSC im hoping i gave you some insight austincc. I'm going to remain a FOS on Mufaa, but because i have this basis on Anacletus being town Mufaa seems more town pro. I'd like to know for sure though somehow because this remains on the basis that Anacletus is a townie. Meh shit i feel like i dodged your question in a way, but now rereading more and more im geting new ideas and now i feel like you will think that im voting BioSC because there is 2 votes on him. Ask it again if you feel like i didnt answer you "correctly" its hard now that i have this different insight rereading some of Mufaa's older posts during day 1 On May 15 2012 07:58 Darkfirex5 wrote: when i pop townie cause thats the way it seems, other townies look at dahdum, mufaa and Anacletus, they to me seem the most pro town. Austin is iffy look into him. I was pressuring BioSC because i thought hey why not get things roling because this could pop up as something. Welp meh i dont have a case against you Tofu but you've been chilling back for a while reading these posts <-- dont like And again, it's not a ton to go on, but here's N1 and On May 14 2012 10:51 BioSC wrote: There IS some defensiveness there, and I don't really have a leg to stand on and make the argument "He suspected townies, therefore he's mafia," but 2/3 of his suspicions have flipped town. Firm you seem to pick something up there, during D2, somewhere on P19 (too lazy to find now), you note that you think dahdum/dark are mafia because they team up and attack Bio.SNIPPED As for whom I would like to call out, SNIPPED Darkfire: I still haven't gotten an answer for this post. Mind filling me in on the details? Like how you are trying to shift blame off of one of the scummiest players at the time to someone else on such a triviality? Unvorgiven_ve: Where the hell have you been, and why is it that the person the mafia hit has you #1 on their list? DahDum: I've still got my reasons for suspecting you, and having Brood call you out only to not respond for 1.5 days adds to the suspicion. I don't get any giant read off of his filter though. It does feel a little defensive. I mean, very defensive. Until his most recent post, EVERYTHING was dahdum/dark/anac, except for the one time he called out dahdum/dark/unforgiven. I don't love the way that feels. At the moment then, I guess I'm on the fence as well. I see him very suspicious of townies, but it's tough for me to get a scumread off that when I've been suspicious of townies. I don't love that he's not really contributing, just being defensive and OMGUSing. Wouldn't hate a lynch on him, could maybe get behind it. I want to keep looking around. Another consideration is that a Bio lynch maybe tells us something about Anac. Seems like if Bio flipped scum, Anac would feel more townie. That's some serious commitment if Anac was pushing Bio so hard D2 and then D3, perhaps a bit too long and too focused to be a bus? | ||
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So. Get active. Help us out. Otherwise I really just want to policy lynch you over Bio, and that's a terrible mindset. HEY LURKERS Unforgiven + Show Spoiler + Unforgiven seems to pop on once a cycle, post a single post or just a tiny flurry of them, then disappear. I have no clue what On May 17 2012 03:11 Unforgiven_ve wrote: means, so feel free to explain that. You voted for yourself D1, then swapped to Brood. You voted for yourself D2. Your main scumread seems to be...yourself. What were you right about? You mentioned mufaa a few times, but every time you mentioned him you ALSO mentioned about 900 other players.i knew it!!! i was right since the beggining of the game. does that bother you austin? im not taking any chances now ##Vote austinmcc + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 00:21 Unforgiven_ve wrote: My god Anacletus, of course i give you some credit, but i dont undertand ANYTHING you post, your contributions makes no sense, they are contradictory and change everytime someone points his finger at you. You need to understand this is a TEAM GAME, you just cant convince people saying "My plan so far is more of a cluster-fuck spider-web of ideas written in a language that I don't know." are you really THAT bad of a player? if you turn mafia im gonna laugh, really. I have a couple reads taking some shape. My four main suspects so far are, Anacletus(for obvious reasons), Mufaa (being very passive, maybe i dont belive his works excuses), Shaopi (super active at first, then just defending his BIG list and a couple post naming Broodking) and Jailbraker (2 post, whitout much information, I'm going to withhold my vote until later when everyone has a chance to post everybody already posted and im still waiting, and posting this now, going to formulate a new post based on BroodKingEXE, ShiaoPi, Hyaach (page 7 to 8) Im gonna wait a couple more hours to cast my vote, i want to see if everyone goes active and chatty and the end of the day On May 12 2012 07:12 Unforgiven_ve wrote: I think anacletus did us not good playing the way he has, i want to belive its a mafia "strategy" but its just too risky(¿?), after reading austinmcc and seeing Anacletus doesnt represent a thread anymore (im sure this will strike us some other way in the future), if BKE flips blue/town as Shaopi says, we are at 0 again thanks to Anacletus. I repeat, i dont like to be guided this easily, but i see a case, i see reasons, and i see lack of response from the accused party. I have made up my mind after readin all posts and seeing RKE lacks of defense after the high pressure...also, this is golden Mufaa, it just raised my "interest" on you. + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 06:18 Mufaa wrote: Like I've been saying since my first post, I think Ana is bad town more than mafia. Every scummy thing he has done has been so scummy that if he was Mafia his partners would be berating him so bad he probably would have stopped posting instead of digging himself into this giant hole he's made. .... and i agree 100% on your jailbraker FOS as i stated hours before, pointing a friend maybe?... but i think we should wait a little more. ##Vote BroodKingEXE On May 13 2012 08:31 Unforgiven_ve wrote: My list in case i die. suspicious of mufaa, jailbreaker, crossfire because at the time they hadn't really posted suspicious of anacletus because of his play suspicious of shaopi because at the time he posted a big list of names with his opinions but nothing really happened yet so there wasn't much to base that on On May 16 2012 13:23 Unforgiven_ve wrote: uh? i came in to check the night post and i hasnt been made? My top 3: austincc Anacletus Dahdum/Mufaa/Hyaach maybe bio/crossfire ... lol, thats all of us but me i guess First post you suspect Mufaa, but also Anac, Jailbreaker, and ShiaoPi. Second post Mufaa raises your interest, but you throw your vote on Brood. In the third post, you're suspicious of 5 players, half the non-you players. In the last post, you seem to be suspicious of SIX players now. Can you narrow down your reads? I don't care if you narrow them down to me and want to tunnel me all day, I'll respond. But we need you to contribute, because you haven't really given us ANYTHING in the last ~96 hours. Crossfire + Show Spoiler + You were gone all D2. N2 you pop in 2 hours before deadline, and do respond to my case. I appreciate that. But now you've dipped out for another 24+ hours. We're talking 2 actual posts over the last...96 hours. I'm not holding the Probulous comment against you anymore. I got an answer to one of my PMs, and not to the other, so I can believe that Prob is just a bum and Adam is a way better coach. You're rightfully suspicious of Anac. But other than that, who? Heck, what about other stuff -- Why do you think the night kills have been ShiaoPi and dahdum? What made them good targets for mafia? Why not kill Firm last night? Come in here, contribute, even if it's just answering that stuff. Hyaach + Show Spoiler + Hyaach we basically haven't heard from you since N1. Again, 96 hours. Your suspects from N1 -- On May 12 2012 12:49 Hyaach wrote: I will just say this out now. High on my suspect list : dahdum Anacletus Mufaa ShiaoPi and checks on Anacletus will be pointless as i've said his been claiming his town so far and could very well be mafia godfather. they appears innocent to checks. Self voted to appear as a last ditch effort to claim townie because the case on him was quite big. Kept insisting he wasn't sure voting BKE was a good choice. Then switch vote to BKE the moment people started pushing and BKE's case seemed lost. How does that change your reads? Heck, we know Mufaa was godfather, so that means Anac can't be gf (Unforgiven, don't get on mah nuts about this, go look at the way the roles are picked and none of the scumteam options have multiple gfs). If the possibility of him being a gf is out, how do you read him? Hooray. Santy Claus has brought presents to all the lurkers. I'm going to keep calling you out all through D3. I keep focusing on people who have posted scummy content, and they keep flipping green. Maybe it's time I focus instead on people WITHOUT much content. At the moment, I mainly support a lynch on: (1) Crossfire (2) BioSC (3) Unforgiven/Hyaach Order subject to change over the course of the day, but that's my current mindset. | ||
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Sweet jesus I don't want to look through his filter. Any time I start, I see myself defending him on D1 as noob town. Everything on D1, everything since, I can still read as noob town or as scum. I was actually serious when I said he was so questionable that he'd have no chance to drive things in later days and cause chaos, and I've stuck by that, basically skipping over his posts (and also, to some extent, cases on him because I have been refusing to read him). Which is, frankly, not helpful. I got through your filter and a full gameread, but didn't get around to his because I seriously don't even want to wade in. I will make myself do some looking tonight, but I will probably mainly be reading your case and others' cases on him, because I just start to confuse myself when I look at his filter. | ||
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D1 Lots of votes being thrown around. Lots of...contradictory votes. I'm only going to pull a few things out, but the voting and the suspicions are clearly funky. Skipping over an early vote or two, we've got - + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2012 10:21 Anacletus wrote: SNIPPED ##Unvote My personal feelings as of right now is that BioSC is mafia. He's been super passive while we've been at each others throats and has been trying to redirect attention off of himself. ##Vote Anacletus Well, this could turn out interesting On May 12 2012 04:57 Anacletus wrote: SNIPPED I actually don't agree with you guys in your suspicions of BioSC being mafia. I also think that Dahdum and Mufaa are also citizens as well. My best guess as to who is mafia would be BKE I guess, but I'm not too certain which is why I haven't really raised my voice in this instance. On May 12 2012 06:43 Anacletus wrote: I'll be real with you man, I don't actually have *that* much of an inclination to believing that you are mafia. It's just that it feels like it's either you or me, so I'm trying to save my own neck. I am not without doubt of you - I just don't think that there's enough information for me to think it's worthy to hang you, but again, if it comes down to me or you, it's you... :/ I do think that others feel like you're mafia though, so that's why my vote is where it is. If i just read this, it continues to look townish to me. All those vote swaps, the odd logic, you're guaranteed to draw a lot of attention to yourself with that. The early post (not quoted here, but i've brought it up before) where he mentions playing games before does concern me. But just from this, I don't want to get super WIFOM-y and think whether mafia knows that drawing attention is bad, so they do that, etc. I have to read this day as townie. N1 Nothing much here. D2 Anac leads off with his initial case on Bio. + Show Spoiler + On May 14 2012 07:40 Anacletus wrote: SNIPPED My biggest suspicions lie with BioSC and FirmTofu - I truly believe them to be mafia and would like for one of them to get hung today, and here is my reasoning why: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#190 This post by Tofu not only distracts from any points made against BioSC but further asserts cases made against me and darkfire - and again my logic being that I know that I am not mafia so I can assume that the claims made against myself are baseless as his only points seem to be based off of what darkfire is saying. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#183 BioSC also makes excruciatingly similar posts to Tofu - it's almost as if they are working together! And my biggest reasoning to vote for them is because of how they both switched from my band wagon vote to vote for BKE after several times trying to seal a vote for me. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=17#326 My opinions on fluff posts using "we" in town situations are also pretty revealing with one's alignment. ##Vote BioSC Here's my vote - I strongly urge you guys to vote with me on this as I truly believe my synopsis to be accurate. Anac ends D2 by finding BioSC, FirmTofu, and I mafia. Still reading this as townie. Guy voted, stuck to it, and although he tunneled BioSC and they had their back and forth all day, it feels like an effort to adjust his posting from D1, which we were all voting him for/suspicious of/etc. Sure, could still be headgames, but now it does feel like making a case, sticking with it, trying to bring people on board with it. The last post is odd, but I read it as frustration? Continues to make those scumreads during N2. D3 Pushing Bio. So here's my read. I'm finding him town. Town or super-far-down-the-rabbit-hole scum, and that seems too outlandish. Bio you made your case, but it's tough for me to read that and find anac scummy off of it, because you're basing it on my alignment. I'm not scum, and so there was no magical scum play to save Anac. If you throw out Mufaa/anac/me being the scumteam, at least part of your case falls apart. Can't agree with your read because of that. Anac. D2 and N2 you thought Firm/Bio/Me was the scumteam. Mufaa flipped red. There's been some more discussion from the rest of us. So:
Firm, jump in here. I still have a town read on you, but everyone's a bit suspicious at this point. I think you're sitting back and trying to get reads from everyone before wading in, but we're down to under 24 hours, have three players lurking heavily, and one COULD read your actions as trying to figure out which buttons to push and threads to pull as scum leading up to the D3 lynch. You've asked Anac about Bio, me about Bio, Bio about me. That's nice, but we're all active. No pressure for the lurkers? Thoughts on the lurkers? I can't seriously believe at this point that we've got 3 townies sitting on their hands, and if we do, we're kind of dead anyway. | ||
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If FirmTofu town: Wants to ensure that if we're mafia we're not sheeping his own thoughts, so trying to get ours out first and then decide if he agrees disagrees. This way we can't just go, "Yeah I think so too." Still takes a decent number of votes to lynch if we've got two candidates, but if we still have inactivity, then Firm voting for someone because of his own reasoning and 1-2 mafia votes on top of that basically means a lynch. If FirmTofu mafia: Wants all the reads ever to just start screwing with us. Allows for a little more manipulation, lets mafia team see where to poke throughout the day. Also allows him to sheep us. Can read it either way. Off to bed for now, hopefully at least a little activity will occur overnight? You know, like CROSSFIRE, HYAACH, AND UNFORGIVEN posting? | ||
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Anacletus (3) - BioSC, Anacletus, Crossfire99 austinmcc (1) - unforgiven, Hyaach Anac. I read you town, see my read on you. I can see why you'd be frustrated and want to vote yourself, but look back at D2 and N2. You voted BioSC at the start of the day, so you still think he's scum. Mufaa flipped scum. How does that alter your team setup? Firm if you want information from Bio, he's either provided it or isn't going to. Time to add something here. Unforgiven, I'm using big letters because i AM desperate. We haven't had the full-on modkills that other newbie games have, just the one, but we've also had the warning and we have a lot of people posting just enough to not get modkilled. The more active we can get everyone, the more posts/behavior we have to analyze. My top read is still Crossfire I believe. Hyaach, one post ago your suspicions were dahdum, Anacletus, Mufaa, ShiaoPi. Your team right now is Mufaa, Austinmcc, Unforgiven. Can you explain your new reads a little better? I'm scummy because I've led two mislynches, fine. True. You can't figure out my townread on FirmTofu, but you don't slot him into your scum team. Does this mean you have a town read on him as well, or believe him to be mafia and don't have a slot to put him in? And why is Unforgiven on your scumteam? You weren't suspicious of him last night, what makes you suspicious of him today? | ||
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On May 17 2012 13:38 FirmTofu wrote: BioSC has convinced me that he's mafia, I'd advise you to switch your vote back onto him. Mega-post incoming. Would like to hear the reasoning on this one. I'm looking a little less at Crossfire right now and a little more at Bio/Hyaach. Moreover, doesn't look like there's weight behind a Crossfire or Hyaach lynch today, we seem to be focused on Anac v. Bio v. Me. Why should we be voting BioSC over one of the lurkier players, and what put you over the top from suspicious to certain? | ||
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Your unvote takes it to 2/2 on anac and I, with his 2nd vote coming in earlier. I don't like either of those options. So right now based on the way the votes are, I'm inclined to lynch into our more lurk-y players, and finally start to back up my requests with a rope. | ||
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I'm sold on Anac and I being town. The end. I'm relatively sold on FirmTofu being town, but want to see more. I was considering one of the lurkers for the vig, but either he's not claiming or I was wrong. So what I'm left with right now is: (1a) Two mafia lurkers; (1b) You + one lurker as mafia; (2) some scenario in which Firm is mafia. Out of the three that I'm calling "lurkers," and I still feel them to be such given that so much of what we DO have from them is excuses for not posting and promises to post more soon, I'm most comfortable lynching into Cross and Hyaach. Will look at them some more, both my thoughts from yesterday and their responses, and see if one really sticks out to me as a better candidate. | ||
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##Vote: Hyaach That said, it's not really a town play either. I can only see someone failing to vote if they actually weren't around at all, which would mean he also wasn't getting prodded in QT or anything. For now, my vote's on him. His post today was just "here's what mufaa said" and voting based off of who mufaa had prodded or not. But I don't like holding my vote this late when there are no votes on anyone I find scummy, and (clearly) I've got no problem tossing out the first vote on someone. | ||
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Also, i SWORE there was some post from him about his location saying Singapore but him being in ... Germany? Did I entirely make that up? Anyone remember that from any player? | ||
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On May 18 2012 05:46 Unforgiven_ve wrote: I think OP demostrated he wasnt going to kill anyone directly at the end of the day, he gave 1 warning, so i think he was feeling safe. Yup, you're right. | ||
austinmcc
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On May 17 2012 03:11 Unforgiven_ve wrote: i knew it!!! i was right since the beggining of the game. does that bother you austin? im not taking any chances now ##Vote austinmcc Specifically, WHAT are you saying you were right about? | ||
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So instead, are you still fully happy with voting me? Regardless of whether you are or aren't, are there other targets you'd be willing to vote for? | ||
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On May 18 2012 06:39 Unforgiven_ve wrote: The thing about people lurking is REALLY bothering me, mafias are the only oenss benefiting from this. Hyaach is one, what if we vote for him and he turns townie? it just adds a 3 dead bodie to your list? If we vote for him and he turns townie, then I continue to make terrible reads. But, EVERYONE we vote for has a chance of flipping townie. I have a chance of flipping townie, and it's what will happen if you lynch me. If Hyaach isn't adding anything at all to town, and mafia is the only party benefitting from lurkers, then at the very least you ought to consider voting for him or crossfire. | ||
austinmcc
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As to me . . . you say I've been playing with a townie's mind. Maybe I've been carrying that persona since D1. But you should look at two things. (1) My original cases on Brood and on darkfire. I'm not sheeping anyone else at those points, those were legitimate reads that I had. Especially the Brood case, as he wasn't even really being considered until I brought him up. (2) The end of D2/start of N2. Read my posts. I'm legitimately furious that for all the discussion we had, folks (including you) are coming in at the last second and voting yourselves and not contributing. Mafia doesn't want discussion. Sure, if i'm mafia playing with a town's mind then maybe I still make those posts, but I felt I was pretty clear that I was legitimately upset by how the end of D2 played out, and not just faking it. | ||
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Also note that the moment the discussion turns to lynching into lurkers, and the moment the whole town starts discussing them, we get a WHOLE lot more action. Not from Hyaach, but Cross and unforgiven are both here and active for the time being. I'm inclined to interpret that as being onto something. This last hour or so, like how it seems to go with this game's days, has generated a whole lot of content at the very least. Lots of changes of heart, scheming from both town and mafia, and so I'm not entirely sure what to make of it as this exact moment. Given that my reads on Brood, darkfire, dahdum, and mufaa were ALL wrong basically, I'm not terribly confident in my choice of lurker. But I've got to assume I'll get something right at some point. If you'd prefer a different lurker, I'm open to changing. Unless Firm comes back in here with some giant encyclopedic case on you that makes everything click, I am dead-set on voting for a lurker today. | ||
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On May 18 2012 07:17 Crossfire99 wrote: You want to know my schedule today? I got at 7:00 and have been at school all day and didn't get a chance to look at this thread until I got home. How is that suspicious? Weren't you the one trying to get the lurkers contributing more and now you are suspicous of the lurkers who are trying to participate now? Isn't that contradictory? You don't like the lurkers for lurking, but then when they come and try to participate you don't like that they do that? What? It's going to come across dick-ish, but no. I don't want to know your schedule. I don't care about the reasons why any of us lack time to play, because we're on the internet and we can make up whatever we want. And no, I don't think it's entirely contradictory. Lurking IS anti-town, it's scummy. Posting can be. Just because you lurked and were scummy doesn't mean you show up and no longer are scummy at all. Posts can look scummy too. Behavior can look scummy. Timing, content, the way a vote moves, that's all participating and can look scummy. | ||
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Do you actually believe me to be scummy? If so, at what point? I'm fine lynching into our lurkers, would you not have been? Do you disagree with the choice of lurker? I don't know that he's the right one either, but I don't buy 3 townie lurkers. Either you think both Bio and I are scummy, and we have an incredibly inactive town, or something's wrong with your reasoning. If you feel I'm the scummiest because of my vote being the first on Hyaach, then I'd urge you to look at On May 18 2012 05:09 BioSC wrote: With regards to WIFOM... yeah. It's getting to that point soon. Plus, it's only going to get worse if we mislynch, which is why I want to find the best possible target. With regards to Tofu, I suppose I'm going to have to wait to see what the fuss is all about on this "Mega Post". I don't know why it's taken this long for someone to make the post about me, but it is what it is. If Tofu is set on his vote, and I can't convince him otherwise, I feel like my only option would be to look into a lurker lynch, or fall back to my original vote. I will look through the lurkers filters again as well, though I'm leaning towards Hyaach as being the scummiest lurker right now. His "suspicions" are simply just a fishnet as of now, with no real reasoning behind them. I'm going to try and see if there are any connections between the 3 lurkers and Mufaa, though as of right now the biggest connection between them is that they were all mostly low post count lurkers >.< On May 18 2012 05:22 austinmcc wrote: The ONLY reason I'm not entirely sold on Hyaach is his no-vote. When we already saw Jailbreaker get modkilled, a no-vote from a scummy player feels like way too large of a risk to take. ##Vote: Hyaach That said, it's not really a town play either. I can only see someone failing to vote if they actually weren't around at all, which would mean he also wasn't getting prodded in QT or anything. For now, my vote's on him. His post today was just "here's what mufaa said" and voting based off of who mufaa had prodded or not. But I don't like holding my vote this late when there are no votes on anyone I find scummy, and (clearly) I've got no problem tossing out the first vote on someone. At the very end, there wasn't another legitimate target, except me. Either the last remaining scum agrees to bus Hyaach, gahhhhhhhhhhhh | ||
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We're past the deadline as far as I know. If Hyaach flips town, then I'm absolutely down to lynch Bio. He'll be confirmed in my eyes, throwing the name out but not being willing to put his neck on the line as the target. Does voting end at the deadline or the night post? | ||
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On May 10 2012 08:56 Hyaach wrote: this is exactly why i always hated day starts. just posting to let people know i'm here and ready to jump the big gun! On May 10 2012 09:02 BioSC wrote: Guys! He said he has a gun! He's OBVIOUSLY SCUM! . . . I kid... or do I? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
- His playstyle changed as of D3, after mufaa died. Whereas before, we had some reads from now-confirmed townies that he was scummy for playing passive and defensive, all of a sudden he starts to be a lot more (pro)active. This post - + Show Spoiler + On May 18 2012 04:49 BioSC wrote:Something else I've thought about last night before I went to bed, was the possibility of us 4 discussing/bringing up topics in this day vote (You, Me, Tofu, Anacletus) are all Town, and that the remaining mafia members are the lurkers waiting to come in and swing vote whomever has the most votes at the time. With Tofu's case against me coming up, I highly suspect he will be voting for me, and possibly dragging Anacletus along with him. That would still leave you with the lynch, unless of course votes are swapped. Say you believe that us 4 are town. You've at least stated that you believe that You, FirmTofu, and Anacletus are town. If you had to lynch a lurker by your own definition, who reads as strongest scum to you? At this point, hitting a lurker feels more right to me, again, tough to say based on my own case against Ana. It's fine if you read me as scum. I want to prove to town that I'm not. My unvote I hope moves thought in that direction. I feel that if you believe me as scum, I have more to risk by unvoting Anacletus and discussing a lynch on lurkers more than if I kept with my vote on Ana. It's not something I'm completely 100% sold on, but I feel like the possibility of us 4 being all town needs to come up. - My thought process on that is that, before Mufaa got shot, D3 was MYLO. All mafia had to do was push one mislynch and they win. It was going to be 5/3, a lynch and a nightkill would give them even numbers and then win. However, the vig shot caught scum off guard and brought the numbers to 5/2. Now D3 is no longer MYLO, and their plans are in trouble. Whereas before, BioSC had been pushing Anac, all of a sudden he stops. Anac may have seemed like an easy target to push for a mislynch, but now if we lynch him and he flips green, the game's not guaranteed anymore. - That explains the change in playstyle, because whereas before he'd been able to sit back, now mufaa is dead and scum's plans have to change somewhat. He pushes lurkers, and specifically mentions Hyaach before I vote for Hyaach. I'm alright with that lynch, but I don't love that he suggests the target without a vote himself, only joining later. Looking back, should have been more vocal about targeting the one lurker that was in a different time zone and might not jump to his own defense. - Also, note the people who have been suspicious of BioSC throughout the game. + Show Spoiler + On May 14 2012 12:06 BioSC wrote: Honestly, the people that keep bringing me up are 3. Dahdum, Darkfire, and YOU. On May 18 2012 09:39 FirmTofu wrote: I'll be dead by tomorrow, out of necessity for the mafia. It will be one less vote against Bio which I suspect is why they killed dahdum as well I can work on a more substantial case during D4, but my main reasons for saying that BioSC is confirmed in my eyes is that he seemed scummy to a lot of town before, had that slightly scummy read on him. Then mufaa dies and his playstyle changes immensely. During the course of D3 he becomes helpful, drumming up discussion, suggesting votes, finally voting himself. Whereas before he'd playing so passively and defensively, and had been tunneling Anac for a bit. I think he steers the vote onto lurkers D3 so as not to get either Anac or I lynched D3, which would cause some trouble for him D4 once we flip green. All of a sudden with mufaa dead you don't need 1 mislynch, you've got a get a new strat together that covers two days. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
- Some bits always seemed a little weird. His massive D1 accusation compilation, for instance. + Show Spoiler + On May 15 2012 07:08 FirmTofu wrote: Day 1 Accusation Compilation BioSC -> Hyaach (jokingly) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#81 dahdum -> FirmTofu (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#82 Darkfire -> BioSC (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#84 Unforgiven_ve -> FirmTofu (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#86 BroodKingEXE -> VOTE FirmTofu (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#87 ShiaoPi -> Hyaach (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#89 dahdum -> Jailbreaker (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#92 dahdum -> VOTE FirmTofu (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=5#93 Ancletus ->VOTE FirmTofu (No reason) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#102 Ancletus -> FirmTofu (Semantics?) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#103 Hyaach -> Ancletus (No reason) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#104 Hyaach -> Ancletus (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#106 austinmcc -> Ancletus (Bad play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#110 ShiaoPi -> Ancletus (Bad play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#113 Crossfire99 -> Ancletus (Bad play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#117 Crossfire99 -> Ancletus (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#118 austinmcc -> Ancletus (Contradiction) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=6#119 FirmTofu -> VOTE Ancletus (Bad play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=7#123 ShiaoPi -> VOTE Ancletus (Bad play + Contradiction) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=7#128 dahdum -> VOTE Ancletus (Bandwagon) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=8#141 BroodKingEXE -> Ancletus (Bad Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=8#143 Darkfirex5 -> FirmTofu (Semantics?) -> BioSC (Bad Play?) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=8#147 Darkfirex5 -> Ancletus (Bandwagon accusation) -> Unforgiven_ve (???) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=8#158 Mufaa -> Ancletus (Bad Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=9#167 BioSC -> VOTE Ancletus (Bad Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=9#171 dahdum -> Ancletus (Bad Play) -> Hyaach (Bad Play) -> BioSC (Bad Play) -> Darkfirex5 (Bad Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=9#173 Darkfirex5 -> dahdum (Contradiction) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=9#176 dahdum -> BioSC (Defensive Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#181 BioSC -> darkfirex5 (Bad Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#183 FirmTofu -> Anacletus (Contradiction + Bad Play) -> Darkfirex5 (Semantics) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#190 BroodKingEXE -> VOTE Ancletus http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#193 ShiaoPi -> Hyaach (Bad Play) -> Jailbreaker (Lurker) -> Darkfirex5 (Contradiction) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#194 austinmcc -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (Bad Play, Contradictions, Semantics) -> Ancletus (Bad play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=10#197 BroodkingEXE -> Jailbreaker (Lurker) -> BioSC (Defensive Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=11#205 BroodkingEXE -> austinmcc (Contradiction) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=11#206 Crossfire99 -> VOTE Anacletus (Bad Play) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=11#219 Anacletus -> VOTE BroodkingEXE (Cites other people's reasons) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=12#222 austinmcc -> BroodKingEXE (Contradiction) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=12#225 dahdum -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (No reason) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=12#228 BioSC -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (Cites other people's reasons) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=12#231 Mufaa -> VOTE Jailbreaker (Lurker) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=12#238 FirmTofu -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (Cites other people's reasons) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=12#240 ShiaoPi -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (Cites other people's reasons) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=13#249 Unforgiven_ve -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (Cites other people's reasons) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=13#250 austinmcc -> BroodKingEXE (Bad Play, later clarifies that he misread) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=13#251 Mufaa -> VOTE BroodKingEXE (Cites other people's posts) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=13#253 BroodKingEXE -> Mufaa (Bandwagoning) -> dahdum (Bandwagoning) http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334707¤tpage=14#264 - On D2, he keeps some votes off BioSC. + Show Spoiler + On May 15 2012 07:59 FirmTofu wrote: Unforgiven, please vote Darkfire. This is our only shot. I believe AT LEAST 2/3 votes on BioSC are mafia. This is all or nothing. On May 15 2012 08:06 FirmTofu wrote: Consider this, Day 1 you accused BioSC of mafia with a single-minded focus then Day 2 randomly decided he was town. Then when you were about to be voted to death, you decided to lynch him anyway. How is that not scummy yo? If anything, your death should be attributed solely to you because you've made a very bad case for yourself. - Then he and Bio start off D3 early just kind of toying with each other. You give me your reads. No, you give me your reads. Oh stop it you, you go first. Neither hard calling the other out, explicitly, just sort of badgering each other. Perhaps, with mufaa dead, trying to put some distance between each other so even if one drops, the other gains some town cred? - If that's your take, then the case on Bio doesn't matter at all. You see how D3 works. If town is suspicious of Bio, you post your case, claim some town cred, try to ride it to a solo victory. If they don't, you can still post it, or not, whatever. Anything that puts you and BioSC at odds is good now, because you need to create distance between the two remaining teammates. - All the speculation about this case, this post, even if it appears and even if FirmTofu is town, has kind of harmed town. It helped to stifle SOME discussion of BioSC on D3, we sort of stopped discussing him waiting on that case (I know I did). It has stifled discussion N4, because nobody really wants to speak up until this thing is posted. No matter what the post contains, no matter how BioSC flips, town has suffered by waiting around for this magical case. - Lastly, IF you read FirmTofu as scummy at all, then the medic request can feel off. We've seen 2 blues flip. That probably means another in the wings. If it's a medic, there's a decent chance that the NK gets protected. Absolute worst case scenario for mafia, because again, they've been planning for the MYLO day. NK makes it 3/2. A protect would keep us at 4/2, and really mess with plans if we lynch mafia, or another NK got protected, they're really in hot water. So by asking for the medic protect on himself, which is entirely reasonable given that we mostly read him as town, he can ensure that it won't be elsewhere and that tonight's shot doesn't get protted. I am still mulling a BioSC/FirmTofu team over in my head. It's tough for me to fully come around on Firm, and to believe we had town lurking so hard and being inactive. But there's some odd interaction between the two after mufaa flips, and it shouldn't be overlooked. Literally woke up last night and started thinking about this, but wanted to wait and post. Again, waiting on Firm's post or case or excuses or anything has robbed town of any N4 discussion we may/may not have had. This is posted in a bit of a rush before i have to leave, so let me know if anything in these two posts seems out of place. If the pieces don't fit. Heck, let me know if anyone else has been having similar suspicions. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
- He notes that dahdum was suspicious of BioSC, and that might have been a reason to NK dahdum. However, dahdum was suspicious of BOTH of them, and in fact, brought up the possibility of the two being a team. + Show Spoiler + On May 15 2012 13:34 dahdum wrote: @FirmTofu - I noticed your play style this game is much more guarded than in the last game, and you were less active in this one early on (busy in QT?). When rereading your filters from both, it seems to me you are trying to be pro-town without really putting yourself out in front. Last game you also made a suspicion list (most to least) yourself as Town, yet flip out when I do the same in this game. Care to comment on this change in gameplay? That accusation list must have taken a lot of effort, and looks pro-town, but how does it really help us? What did you unearth from that? Would you vote for BioSC? On May 15 2012 13:45 dahdum wrote: @BioSC - What is your read on FirmTofu? I'm convinced one or both of you is mafia, so I would find your thoughts interesting. Also, other than that who would you vote for right now? | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Unforgiven, you did a really nice job and came off much townier compared to our other lurkers. I don't think I would have ended up pegging you for scum, with bio, firm, and crossfire all being higher on my radar. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I've got some postgame thoughts and questions, but would love to see obs qt if there was one, or any postgame thoughts from more experienced players, before posting them. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Well played all, nice work mafia, looks like we were all pretty content to find each other suspicious and not keep pressuring you guys. I'm guessing we could have done better with the info we had, but you guys really didn't give up much and we didn't get a lot in the way of info out of our blue roles to close that gap. At least in my head, that's my biggest takeaway for our town play. We had activity some days, not others, but really just never had anything concrete to work off of. I know that we shouldn't be reliant on our blue roles, and we did get our only scum kill off of hyaach's shot, but I felt like we didn't get much in the way of info from them. If everyone is suspicious and nobody is confirmed come D3, should we be looking to claim, even if you're not an info role, just to try and confirm a few townies? With good breadcrumbs or sensible claims, I feel like we maybe could have come up with a better lynch target than "Pick a lurker" (although man we got a little "unlucky"). I'm sure we could have reasoned through the lynch better, but if we'd have even just one blue confirmed it would have helped. I know the obs QT wasn't terrible active, but it didn't seem like the active observers nailed the scumteam either. Combination of good mafia play and town inactivity? Or mainly one of those? Personally, I feel like I didn't play all that well. I think I was overly spammy at some points, but when I tried to cut back on that I ended up not posting at all. The mislynches I'm okay with, I thought I had decent reads and we had some agreement from others there. But I don't think I had a consistent idea of how I wanted to approach the game and play. D1 I tunneled hard on brood, D2 I tried to pull back and not push so hard for a darkfire lynch, and by the time D3 rolled around and crossfire was my top read, I just didn't want to push it because I knew I'd been wrong twice. Couldn't find any kind of sweet spot of exactly how much to trust myself, how vocal to be, and especially how to play the endgame. Sorry to Brood for pushing you so hard D1. Sorry Anac for ignoring some of your posts. But thanks all for making it enjoyable. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On May 20 2012 03:47 jaj22 wrote: Hyaach didn't get the scum kill, Tofu did. Which was the problem. Hyaach couldn't claim because it wasn't his kill, and Tofu didn't want to claim because he was a multi-shot vig and he wasn't under much pressure. Sumtiems ah reed gud. Didn't go back and check the actions today and had that wrong. | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
For the vets/coaches, would there be any major changes in playstyle between a mini game and a full game and/or a game with PMs? Seems like you're basically doing the same thing, but what would you say the biggest difference is to keep in mind between a mini and a full game? | ||
austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I can't really give a good reason for the switch off Crossfire. Apart from thinking Anac was town, I had lynched Brood and darkfire, thought dahdum was scummy, and thought Mufaa was slightly towny. Once I'd been wrong that many times, I lost confidence in my reads and didn't push for Crossfire because he actually responded to the questions I asked when I called out lurkers, whereas Hyaach didn't. Not a good reason, and it got worse throughout the day because I actually had reservations about lynching Hyaach due to the time zone difference and what I thought had been a vigi breadcrumb, yet was still willing to vote for him because...don't know. Just got overly frustrated. As a question, would you say that we had a bad idea of what "scummy" behavior was? I read the guides, but it seemed that I didn't keep them in mind fully once the game started. Looking back, I feel like some of the things that felt scummy to me such as timing of posts and little contradictions shouldn't have seemed scummy when compared to the lurking/self-votes. | ||
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