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On May 08 2012 13:45 wherebugsgo wrote:
your entire assumption falls apart when you realize that the basic assumption can be wrong and that even if two of them were town, if all 3 died that opens windows into finding OTHER scum.
The rest of your post is just total horse shit because it assumes that 2 of them were townies, and that only the ratios matter.
True, I did not cover all the possibilities. But the chances of lynching 2 or 3 scum out of 3 persons on a mass lynch is highly unlikely, so I provided the best possible still likely-to-happen scenario.
I do not believe that you can currently correctly decide other players alignments based on someone flipping, as you have been wrong so many times already.
At no point have I said only the ratios matter, but they are crucial information in specific situations.
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On May 08 2012 13:51 wherebugsgo wrote:
*entire argument, rather
at any rate I have no idea why I am bothering to argue with you. The fact remains that as long as the people we want to kill remain alive, we cannot progress into finding other scum because we have next to no pressure on them. It all basically comes down to luck who is on the chopping block, and they'll always have immune friends in the minority pool who can save them.
It's basically a race against the clock; either we get a set number of correct lynches in (and to do this we at all times need to know ALL of the players who are most likely to flip scum, as we have no way of controlling who ends up in the majority really) or we don't.
That means every single opportunity that we get matters. VE screwed up the first one by saving sandro and now sandro has been in the minority twice in a row. We got the second one alright. The third one was messed up because of me, albeit there were circumstances for me out of my control (obviously I'm not going to skip a school final just to get a scum lynched in a forum mafia game)
If you were town you would accept that in order to move on from this stalemated situation we would need to kill our prime suspects. If you're town and you continue to be antiprogress you'll just make yourself look like an ass postgame. I'm completely fine with that, and as you are too I'm still pretty sure you're not town. The discrepancy between your behavior here and in DFM2 is just too great for you to be town here, unless your play has degraded so far that you can't actually reason your way out of a paper bag.
It is not a degrade of my play, merely a variance. At the moment the best solution as me for a townie with no credibility has been to take the joker role, possibly being to influence the final result of the day in town favour if the scum takes a risk. The problem I see is, whatever trust-circle you have formed, I am sure is infiltrated by scum, if not initiated by scum. I would not mind working in unison at all, but as your attitude for the whole game pretty much has been fuck Cephiro, why should I even bother? Playing in unison may be optimal play towards wincondition if it reaches perfection, but I am fairly sure perfection is not going to happen, which is why I'm trying something else.
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On May 08 2012 13:53 wherebugsgo wrote:
No it's not. You don't even base this argument on anything.
The likelihood of lynching two scum out of three if you choose all three players completely randomly is pretty low, but when all three of those players are almost universally considered to be scum the likelihood gets multiplied many times over.
This is just bullshit. You've been universally wrong twice, right once so far. Looks to me that the likelihood just gets divided by many times over.
On May 08 2012 13:53 wherebugsgo wrote:
You're just fear mongering based on known information. That's a scum tactic.
There is almost no way you would say that I have been wrong "many times already" when there have only been two town flips. I have been right 1 time out of 3. That's better than you, as you've been right...well, never.
If you want to base this shit on known information then clearly my track record is infinitely better than yours, since you've defended a flipped scum.
No need to fearmonger. Also, I've been right three times out of 3, how is that? I knew VE was town, I knew BC was scum, I knew Sheth was Town.
BC would have died even if I hadn't overslept, as I was not going to vote for him. Let me explain it to you so you'll understand as well: As BC was universally outed, and his team agreed to bus him, the best play in this situation to try and take as many with him as possible. This is where my "bad town play" comes in. I was telling people how I considered him town, and he backed me up in return to some extent, to try to convince me of his townyness. This made BC fairly sure that I would have voted for him, as is also explained by him only giving 2 votes to me, as he was expecting me to give him easily at least three. That would have been enough to save himself but get me lynched, and as I would have flipped town, he could've argued about how he was right and possibly gained some credibility. The real situation was however that I trapped him all along. I ensured the BC lynch.
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On May 08 2012 14:06 wherebugsgo wrote:
AND YOU'VE BEEN WRONG EVERY SINGLE TIME.
I'm done arguing with you. You're scum. You're not interested in the objective truth. You're merely interested in grossly exaggerating, misleading, and disrupting based on false assumptions and logical fallacies.
I'VE BEEN RIGHT EVERY SINGLE TIME UNLIKE YOU, LEARN TO READ.
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On May 08 2012 14:08 syllogism wrote:
Another Bill Murray situation, hard to believe it
Considering my playstyle so far has now been explained and outed, you will see me step up my play as proof.
If you are too stubborn to believe me after that, that's town's loss.
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On May 08 2012 14:11 syllogism wrote:
I'm not talking about you
Explain "Bill Murray situations" please?
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+ Show Spoiler +On May 08 2012 14:13 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2012 14:08 Cephiro wrote:On May 08 2012 14:06 wherebugsgo wrote:
AND YOU'VE BEEN WRONG EVERY SINGLE TIME.
I'm done arguing with you. You're scum. You're not interested in the objective truth. You're merely interested in grossly exaggerating, misleading, and disrupting based on false assumptions and logical fallacies.
I'VE BEEN RIGHT EVERY SINGLE TIME UNLIKE YOU, LEARN TO READ. Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 09:34 Cephiro wrote:On May 03 2012 03:36 Foolishness wrote:
Is there anyone that actually does not want BC to die? Me. Show nested quote +On May 03 2012 15:16 Cephiro wrote:
I'd say there's easily at least 3 mafia in that list. Do you really think that there were 4 mafia in the majority yesterday? Please.... I can understand your town reads on syllo and Katina but I have no idea how you find BC scum when you see gonzaw and wbg as town. -_- Show nested quote +On May 04 2012 17:01 Cephiro wrote:
Few random facts:
1) You're not getting me lynched today.
2) You're not getting BC lynched today.
3) You need to get your head checked if you think I'm scum.
Show nested quote +On May 04 2012 17:45 Cephiro wrote:On May 04 2012 17:41 EchelonTee wrote:
it's 4:30 am. i'm sleeping. hopefully when I come back I will be more ineberiated and thus more ready to deal with the shenanigans of this thread.
hey people
DISCUSS THE BC LYNCH. you know, the one that most people agree on? is it an easy bandwagon? A good lynch on scum? we should discuss it! Nothing to discuss about, it's another bad lynch on a townie, just like the earlier one on VE. LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
^ Bullshit post by wbg as he totally ignored to read this post by me on purpose:
On May 08 2012 14:03 Cephiro wrote:
BC would have died even if I hadn't overslept, as I was not going to vote for him. Let me explain it to you so you'll understand as well: As BC was universally outed, and his team agreed to bus him, the best play in this situation to try and take as many with him as possible. This is where my "bad town play" comes in. I was telling people how I considered him town, and he backed me up in return to some extent, to try to convince me of his townyness. This made BC fairly sure that I would have voted for him, as is also explained by him only giving 2 votes to me, as he was expecting me to give him easily at least three. That would have been enough to save himself but get me lynched, and as I would have flipped town, he could've argued about how he was right and possibly gained some credibility. The real situation was however that I trapped him all along. I ensured the BC lynch.
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On May 08 2012 16:21 EchelonTee wrote:
How did you know those players were town or scum? I don't know anyone's alignment but my own.
Why didn't you PM anyone that you were going to do a "bad town play", so that there was some corroboration that you were trying a gambit? Doing a bad town play looks an awful like scum play if you don't explain it.
Why didn't you reveal this explanation directly after the BC flip, as opposed to now? You could've tried to regain some town trust and refocus attentions on scumhunting scum, if you were town.
Replace "knew" with "I was right about them". No need for nitpicking...
Why would I have PMed anyone? There is no-one in this game I trust to that extent. If I had happened to PM a scum of his team, the whole thing would've been ruined.
I chose not to reveal it right away as I was hoping I would be able to take the same principle further, but no-one that I consider scum is even trying to contact me anymore. By telling this now I was hoping that certain players would actually consider other possibilities than just blindly believe in that one opinion that they've established.
The true skill in mafia is not about always having your reads right from the start, but being able to adjust from your wrong opinion into the right one.
On May 08 2012 18:26 Palmar wrote:
I hate your play Cephiro, you've been figured out as scum and you're being an asshole about it.
You're just whining because you don't have the power over me you wished you had. Stop crying over your ego and start playing for town, if you are town as you claim. Your filter is even worse than mine, and I doubt you've pulled off a gambit of the same sort. I would gladly be proven wrong however.
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On May 08 2012 20:51 Palmar wrote:
It's not about power because the setup is weird like that, we can't actually lynch the people we want to lynch. I'm sure almost everyone in town wants to kill you Ceph.
You signed up to play with the setup, don't complain about it, find a way to use it to your favour.
As a heads up, some analysis/case coming up later today.
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On May 08 2012 21:01 Palmar wrote:
Why bother, not like anyone's going to read it except maybe chaoser.
I'm not complaining, I was pointing out a feature in the setup that is different from normal and I hadn't fully adjusted to at the start of the game. I actually think it's kinda interesting, although at times annoying to deal with as town. Maybe you can shed some light on mafia perspective?
If you wouldn't even look at it, then you're just way too confident about yourself. You just think you are right and aren't willing to think of other possibilities, and that is what's going to cost you the game at this rate, whatever alignment you are.
I haven't thought about the setup from a mafia perspective very much, as I am town, so I haven't bothered to waste my time on thinking how scum would play this too much, as it is very wifom. As mentioned, time is precious, use it well.
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On May 08 2012 21:30 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On May 08 2012 21:17 Cephiro wrote:
As mentioned, time is precious, use it well. Gonna shoot me tonight?
Do you not think I would have done that already?
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On May 08 2012 23:56 wherebugsgo wrote:
How do I have total control when one jackass like Cephiro can essentially change the lynch however he sees fit?
LOLOLOLOL. <3
I like how my 5 votes "decide the lynch", compared to all the votes that you coordinate, I bet that's at least 30-ish... quite a good efficiency I have.
I am fairly sure syllo is town, but either you & Palmar are being total douches or something is off. The first is very likely in Palmar's case, but considering you.... well, I'll be getting back to this later today.
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+ Show Spoiler +On May 09 2012 00:20 slOosh wrote:
The OP link to night 3 is broken (linked to night 2 right now)
So I've been thinking it through and looking over Foolishness' posts / PMs because he is smart town player.
One thing I've noticed is how he thinks that distinguishing the families are important. Since it's my first time playing a game with 2 mafia families, I guess it's taken me some time to understand what this means, but I think I'm onto something / there's good discussion to be had here.
We know that there are 2 mafia families. BloodyC0bbler flipped Yokoya. Let's say for the sake of flavor the other team is Harimoto.
As already discussed, it is likely that Cephiro belongs to the Yokoya family, as well as Sandroba.
The round B results support this as we see a 2-1 split between them D1 and D2. On D3 both vote no, but this is when the thread generally agrees that they are both scum. I'm guessing it is a bus gambit as they don't have much to gain from 1-1 split (where no doubt they would be in serious danger of being lynched) or an attempt to separate themselves from each other.
For the Harimoto family I'm putting in chaoser and Meapak. This is primarily through sifting of Meapak's PMs. You can see that he is very active in PM land. He PMs BC & Cephiro, which indicates that he isn't of the Yokoya family. He doesn't PM sandroba, prplhz, chaoser, Palmer and gonzaw. Now it's understandable you wouldn't bother PMing people you think are mafia (Palmer, gonzaw, prplhz or sandroba). Yet there is no PM interaction between him and chaoser.
Furthermore, looking into his filter there is no mention of chaoser.
The same can be said of chaoser and his views on Meapak. He barely mentions him in the thread, and only with the last nights flip does Meapak suddenly become obvious town.
^ Sloosh's post about me belonging to the Yokoya family, read this if you haven't already:
On May 08 2012 14:03 Cephiro wrote:
BC would have died even if I hadn't overslept, as I was not going to vote for him. Let me explain it to you so you'll understand as well: As BC was universally outed, and his team agreed to bus him, the best play in this situation to try and take as many with him as possible. This is where my "bad town play" comes in. I was telling people how I considered him town, and he backed me up in return to some extent, to try to convince me of his townyness. This made BC fairly sure that I would have voted for him, as is also explained by him only giving 2 votes to me, as he was expecting me to give him easily at least three. That would have been enough to save himself but get me lynched, and as I would have flipped town, he could've argued about how he was right and possibly gained some credibility. The real situation was however that I trapped him all along. I ensured the BC lynch.
On May 09 2012 00:38 Palmar wrote:
chaoser is confirmed scum yes. he got saved by cephiroscum.
At the moment I find it much more likely that you're scum rather than chaoser. And I know I'm town.
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On May 09 2012 01:02 wherebugsgo wrote:
man I have to say that the post Cephiro made about "I ensured the BC lynch" is probably the most desperately poor attempt at getting town cred I've ever seen any scum make here.
It's so phenomenally bad that I can't believe the guy is still trying to play seriously. I guess it makes sense though, since it's practically 50/50 for him to be completely immune to town killing him.
It's no attempt by scum to do anything, that's the truth, whether you like it or not. You can keep trying to undermine my play but fact is that's what happened.
And in the meanwhile you can go play with those spreadsheets of yours and cry about how I decide the lynch with my 5 votes compared to everything you're trying to organize.
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Reading the filters of the alive players is making my head hurt. T_T I guess I'll be wiser after the 4th Round A.
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Oh poor poor little king. Your influence is really nothing now is it? I've got to say, one won't have to take your threats very seriously at all.
Anyone else like the idea of a mutli-lynch?
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On May 10 2012 12:45 EchelonTee wrote:
Can you stop being an asshole Cephiro? It's really making me not want to play this game, and I really don't want to play future games with you after this.
Hmm, I have no need to exchange jabs at anyone, just punching Palmar's ego down a bit, as he hasn't showed any reason why I should stop doing so.
Please do not generalize just for the fact that I am picking on Palmar for his influence claim which as can be seen, never held any truth to it.
It's hard to believe that only my play would not make you want to play this game, but I guess we all have our own feelings about different situations. I think I've made my point clear about this, so unless Palmar comes with another wonderful "painted-in-the-corner"-post, I guess I can leave it be if it makes you smile.
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On May 10 2012 12:59 gonzaw wrote:
I can't believe sandro/Ceph escaped the majority once again.
Still, Palmar/Wiggles/chaoser are in it though, so it's not a total failure.
I'm trying to organize the votes as well, so if you are going to vote please claim your votes to me. I'll share the spreadsheet with few people though, so don't expect to see it here.
Gonzaw has "escaped the majority" just as well, and I don't suggest that anyone trusts them with their vote claims personally at this point, unless you somehow have a confirmed townie to yourself.
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On May 10 2012 13:18 EchelonTee wrote:
You haven't done anything rule breaking, and certainly other people have been assholes (calling people retards, saying fuck you, etc), but just your entirely derisive attitude and stuck up attitude towards everyone except dead people is incredibly obnoxious and sickens me to read. Usually I can just ignore internet trolls, but I am forced to read your posts if I want to play this game. I am not suggesting that your play is the wrong way to play, or illegal, but I certainly don't want to play around it in the future.
Derisive towards everyone? That is certainly not the case. You just paint some things as derisive in your mind as you think I am scum, when I'm not. Maybe you can go look back at some posts more objectively later when the game has ended.
I have no need to play with a trolling attitude of any sort, I chose to start with a very limited contact style to purposefully make me look like a bad player at start, and some people went over their heads about it. Who are you to blame me for "trolling" them back a bit?
I generally don't like being provocative do fish reactions from others, and by this point of the game it is already useless, as it doesn't awake the sort of reactions that I can use for information. However, considering the style of play I decided to start with in the early parts of the game, and as the "scum-stamp", carried on by a voiceful minority until most agreed, I thought I may as well continue playing this style and play my final gambits as most of you have just admitted you are going to ignore me, so why should I waste my time convincing you I'm town when I can concentrate on keeping myself alive, and trying to get scum lynched for the power that I possess?
This is the Liar Game. Don't expect even townies to tell you the truth. In this kind of game, especially with this kind of setup, someone is bound to lie. Now how do you separate the liars from the one's speaking the truth? If you ask everyone to claim their alignment, everyone would simply say Town. That wouldn't get us much anywhere would it?
I am not playing this game for the sake of being a jerk and ruining it for others, I hope you understand that.
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On May 10 2012 13:19 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Cephiro I kindly invite you to shut your mouth and wait your turn to die.
Gonzaw it'll be great if you can get an initial plan together, when I get home I'll join in and we can see how many we can get.
And this post just further confirms my earlier thoughts about you two. Feeling confident about the win already? You shouldn't.
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EPT
