EPTNewbie Mini XII - Page 4
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
this link. Furthermore, the ultimatum serves as a computation simplifier for those players unwilling or unable to run through the logic I have presented. I have reduced the question of "how does Gummy's lie differ from Claw's lie and what can we infer about their intentions based upon those differences" to "Who would we rather have on our team going forward?" | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
My ultimatum is entirely consistent with wanting to help the town via the folk theorem. Seeing as I am very confident that claw is scum, what I do from here on out if people do not lynch claw is irrelevant since we cannot win. Since all outcomes in which claw is not lynched end in the town losing, my voting no lynch is just as useful a vote as any other. Further, since I expect to be targeted the first night anyway, since the mafia would be stupid not to, I would very much prefer that Claw be taken down as well. Not using my save on somebody who refuses to vote for claw is bait for a reason that is obvious if you think through what has been revealed so far. Even if it were not bait, I would rather there be somebody sympathetic to my reasoning in the morning than otherwise. Mafia would prefer the opposite. Thus, everything I have said so far is consistent with my interests being aligned with the town's. If my rhetoric is offensive or annoying, be assured that it is intentional. I will complete this post a little later. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 05:38 Clawtrocity wrote: There is nothing fallacious about my claim. You have yet to provide any reasonable justification for why you role claimed medic and encouraged the detective to reveal him/herself. Slippery slope fallacy This is not a slippery slope. It is an explicit win condition of the game. You are scum. All scum must be voted off for the town to win (unless they decide to suicide). You must be voted off or the town cannot win. There is no appeal to authority. There is me asking a question and then me making a contingent statement based on a presumed answer to that question. I am not protecting you. I am trying to get you voted off. You are either scum or you are trolling this game in a manner that is directly hurting our town making you as bad as scum. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: I propose that we let Gummy, Claw, and Tofu live into the first night. We stand to gain more information that way than by any day 1 lynch that is as rash as their role-claims. Why: + Show Spoiler + Just to put it out there: the setup could hypothetically be 2 medics as the towns power roles. In spite of that, we all seem to agree is likely that at least one of the current medic claims is a lie. (Note that both could be lies.) What do we learn by lynching Claw today? If he flips Medic, then in all likelihood we either see Gummy killed tonight or lynched tomorrow. If Gummy then flips Medic, the town is doomed. If Gummy then flips town, we learn nothing and are in a bad position. If Gummy flips Mafia, then we are in a good position. If we lynch Claw today and he flips Townie? Then again, the town and any vigilante will be compelled to kill Gummy. If Claw flips Mafia, then we cheer and Gummy is trusted but also likely is killed by mafia. Lynching Tofu today produces similar scenarios. Lynching Gummy as Matriach suggests? Well, if Gummy flipped Town then we would have to kill Claw. If Gummy flipped Mafia, then we would trust Claw. But note, that if Gummy dies tonight, we still either kill Claw or have him confirmed on Day 2. If Claw dies tonight, then if he is town we turn against Gummy. If Claw dies tonight and flips Mafia, or if Claw doesn't die, then we can lynch him on Day 2. If Tofu dies tonight and flips Town, we lynch Claw. Now if Gummy is town, the Mafia will be more likely to kill him than Claw. So we stand to confirm or condemn one of Gummy, Claw, or Tofu based on whichever one of them dies. How can the Mafia not kill one of them if all 3 have claimed blue roles? If none of the 3 die and a random townie dies? Then all 3 have to prove their claims on Day 2 and if Tofu gives us a report we let him live for another day, while we either lynch who he claims is red or if his report greens someone then we lynch the least trusted Medic-claimee hoping the medic lives and Tofu provides a second report on Day 3. If these outcomes sound flawed, please let me know. Look, Gummy is playing aggressive, loud, and loose. I understand the logic behind his vote on Claw. But I remain unconvinced that we, today, can be 99% certain Claw is Mafia, or that Claw and Tofu are mafia colluding on their claims. Why would, with only 2 players, the mafia claim to be blue. There is no rational scenario in which the town doesn't lynch someone who claims blue and then lives for another 2 nights. The role claims draw far too much attention and responsibility upon them, especially DT, to be a good rational mafia strategy plan. Mafia want to blend in by 'nodding with the town' not being 'nodded at'. If they indeed turn out to be mafia, they have already lost even if we don't lynch one today. If, however, more likely they are Town either being honest or vanilla townie trying to confuse mafia, we only hurt ourselves by mislynching one of them on Day 1. Gummy, imo, really hurt himself and, if he is town, the town by making that ultimatum threat. It's hard to trust someone willing to quit on us. It's also hard to keep up with someone who posts so much. You could form just as, if not more so, convincing an argument without spamming every thought you have. Tofu, whether he's a bad DT or a bad mafia, clearly seemed to believe there would be at least 3 blue roles, which is fairly unlikely when thinking about balance. (At the same time, I'd like to point out to anyone studying paschl's list of previous setups, that there is nothing statistically informative about 6 data points.) dahdum, at the moment, is Town-ish. His posts have echoed some of my own thought processes, so for the time being I'll overlook his low amount of posts. Matriarch has failed to post enough actual content for me to place any trust in her yet. Ange seems very inexperienced but at the same time his/her second post bothers me: + Show Spoiler + On May 01 2012 09:04 Ange777 wrote: Ok, I am a townie. But: Isn't it better to abstain from any roleclaiming? Otherwise isn't it easier to identify the special roles? Furthermore scum could just claim to be regular townies and right now we have no way to prove anything. I would have thought claiming to be a townie is just as suspicious as saying nothing about it but hey, I don't have any experience in this game  On May 01 2012 09:12 Ange777 wrote: But then we will just have 9 people claiming to be townie. I don't understand what kind of information you will get from that. On May 03 2012 01:27 Ange777 wrote: 2) Claw is the real medic and you are desperate to kill him before someone reveals you as scum. Although this logic is flawed as everbody would blame you if Claw flipped blue. Or you are playing a huge mindgame and already calculated that possibility? God, this is just soo confusing ... Aces thought that if Claw and Tofu were as claimed it would a dream scenario for the town with Tofu's plan, which makes no sense because I still fail to see how any player imagines that somehow they would live forever in that scenario. Why does Aces beg us to "please believe that he is vanilla townie and not scummy"? paschl spams at the start, claims townie, then claims he never claimed townie or a role. Well into his spam just posts "This is gonna be fun", great more spam. Fails to thoroughly read the rules and setup. Has posted a few unnecessary lists and then voted for dahdum for not posting much in his opinion (in comparison to paschl and Gummy, everyone is a mime). As I don't feel I can say 99% someone is mafia, I feel no lynch day 1 is better for us than a mislynch. How often have you seen a Day 1 lynch be mafia and not mislynch? Mafia want us to help them by mislynching the first couple days, why would the mafia draw attention to themselves or lie on day 1 and potentially get caught in the noose's spotlight? ##Vote: No Lynch So you're saying "Ok, I agree with your logic on Claw but I don't want to vote him off because he's incriminated himself anyway." You end up in the same situation tomorrow as today. Only you're a townie down. As Ange said, when an obvious Mafia is on the table, you lynch him. You do not wait to lynch him especially when the suspicion of him is public. I don't think anything Claw has said in the last few pages has made anything approaching sense. Also, I post a lot because I make long posts with a lot of info. Then I realize I can't edit, so I make amendments. This is how no-edit forum mafia works.... | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
1.) I will be targeted tonight by the Mafia unless they are retarded. It is literally a dominant strategy in expectations at this point to target me. So long as the Mafia believe my extremely obvious role claim, there is no mind game to be played here. It's not like I want to die tonight, but any of you can run through the calculations. 2.) Since I am extremely confident in Claw's being scum, and we cannot win unless we vote off all scum, we need to vote off Claw. If we do not vote off Claw, we will be in the same position tomorrow, with one fewer townie with which to vote of Claw. Once you have identified scum and that scum knows he has been identified (look how Claw is melting down) you need to vote him off. It is a dominant strategy. To vote him off now is strictly better than voting him off tomorrow. You will not have my vote tomorrow because I will be dead. You will not gain any information by not voting him off. You will merely be in the same situation tomorrow with one fewer townie and in all likelihood one fewer power role. If by some retarded coincidence I end up alive tomorrow, there will be no reason for me to vote for anybody except Claw. Unless you are willing to vote off Claw, I am just as well off voting no lynch for the duration of the game until claw is voted off or scum win. This is hardly even a threat. Assuming some positive utility (say 1) for lynching a mafia and a negative utility (say -1) for mislynching, voting for Claw is a utility of 1 - epsilon. Voting for anybody else is 1/7(chance of hitting a mafia at random less Claw and myself) - 6/7(chance of hitting a townie at random less claw and myself) = -5/7. Voting for a no lynch is trivially 0. So obviously, I either vote Claw or no lynch. 3.) I will not save you if you are not voting in my favor: a.) Since somebody has to die, I would prefer the person who gets killed during the night to more likely be somebody who is not able or willing to follow my reasoning. Obviously I believe in my own reasoning enough to prefer that someone who shares my reasoning survive to the following day. b.) I am the person who will die tonight so who I cast my vote to save doesn't matter. So my ultimatum is simply, as I claimed, a computation simplifier. Choose between me and claw. If you think about it, since I'm going to die tonight anyway with a very high probability, you're choosing between getting rid of a very small fraction of me or a very large fraction of claw. The choice is so obvious I want to scream. Here's some logic you guys might comprehend. Get Rid Of Claw. It spells out GROC. Groc is pronounced like Grok which is German for comprehend. Do you guys comprehend? Claw: That's a logical fallacy. My response: No shit, sherlock. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 07:06 Mattchew wrote: Votecount: Clawtrocity (2) - AcesRequiem, Gummy gummy (2)- matriach, clawtrosity Matriarch (1)- dahdum dahdum (1)- paschl No-Lynch (1) - DeMorcerf With 9 Alive its 5 to lynch, currently no one is set to be lynch. Please PM me or Mattchew if you see any mistakes. A little under 2 hours until the voting deadline Unless somebody changes their vote and the two latecomers vote Claw, you guys are a very suicidal town. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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Gummy
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DO PEOPLE REALLY NOT UNDERSTAND HOW MAJORITY VOTING GAMES WORK!?!??!?!!? YOU ARE THROWING YOUR VOTE AWAY UNLESS YOUR VOTE IS GOING TOWARD THE MAJORITY!!!!!!!!!!!!!! | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
Why would you force other people to claim their role before that if youre the medic? Since I have nonpublic information, I can discern information from role claims that others might not. I've already explained the reason behind putting pressure on people. Forcing people to do things they are not comfortable doing is the easiest way to get them to take belief-revealing actions. How does my play not make sense. Walk through the sequence I took through my shoes, taking one step at a time. Given the information I took in between posts and given the information I had being the medic, I've acted in a consistent manner the whole way through. In conclusion, my theory is optimal and your arguments are based on nothing. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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Gummy
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On May 03 2012 07:25 paschl wrote: So there is no chance claw makes the medic claim as a vanilla towny? There is no belief for which that play would be optimal except if he was scum. Think it through and this conclusion is obvious. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 01 2012 09:24 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't really understand the point behind forcing a role claim. Everyone will claim vanilla townie because that's the most common role and it's completely unprovable. It doesn't hide any roles because if everyone claims vanilla townie then everyone is up for attack. I'll go ahead and say that I don't like that strategy, but regardless I'll give actions a real role to claim. With the possibility of a jailkeeper or another Medic I'm fine in saying that I'm one of the medics. The best part is the Mafia won't attack me because they'll think I'm a vanilla townie trying to bite the bullet for the town. If the detective wants to claim I'll be here to heal him. We really just need to keep the detective alive for as long as possible because with so many non-power roles we'll be powerless eventually. I'd be wary of Gummy for being so aggressive so early on. He's most likely trying to accuse other people so if anyone tries to point fingers at him he can claim that they're protecting the person he's pressuring. That's a pretty shady tatic and with his confindence in himself going to his head he might be trouble. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 01 2012 09:24 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't really understand the point behind forcing a role claim. Everyone will claim vanilla townie because that's the most common role and it's completely unprovable. It doesn't hide any roles because if everyone claims vanilla townie then everyone is up for attack. I'll go ahead and say that I don't like that strategy, but regardless I'll give actions a real role to claim. With the possibility of a jailkeeper or another Medic I'm fine in saying that I'm one of the medics. The best part is the Mafia won't attack me because they'll think I'm a vanilla townie trying to bite the bullet for the town. If the detective wants to claim I'll be here to heal him. We really just need to keep the detective alive for as long as possible because with so many non-power roles we'll be powerless eventually. I'd be wary of Gummy for being so aggressive so early on. He's most likely trying to accuse other people so if anyone tries to point fingers at him he can claim that they're protecting the person he's pressuring. That's a pretty shady tatic and with his confindence in himself going to his head he might be trouble. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
APPEARING SCUMMY ONLY GETS YOU TARGETED IN DAY PLAY. YOU GET NO ADVANTAGE FOR APPEARING SCUMMY EVER. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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Gummy
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Gummy
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On May 03 2012 07:37 paschl wrote: Yes, there definitively is. Im not saying he cant be a mafia because he wrote it but who do you think is more afraid to cop hunt itt? A mafia actually posting a phrase like that is so mindboggling i cant see it happen except in the rarest of cases. So you're saying that you can trick the detective into wasting a turn on you by pretending to be scum. This helps the town how? | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
I'm not saying it makes a whole lot of sense for scum to act scummy. I'm saying that there is only one conclusion we can draw from his being scummy. That he is scum. | ||
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Gummy
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On May 03 2012 07:40 FirmTofu wrote: Gummy, I think I know what you're doing. Let it be known to posterity that I think its a terrible strategy. We aren't going to have a lynch today. I think both Claw and Gummy are town, and no one else has enough evidence on top of them for me to even consider lynching them. Get over yourself Gummy. There is no way you can deduce everyone's alignment from a handful of Day 1 posts. Let's wait a day and see if we get some REAL information. ##vote: No Lynch YOU WILL BE IN THE SAME SITUATION TOMORROW AS YOU WILL BE IN TODAY WITH ONE FEWER TOWNIE. What information do you hope to gain? Let's say you're the detective. You live the night anyway and nobody's voting you off today. You get the night to make your detection anyway. From everybody else's perspective 0 information was gained, since nobody can confirm that you're the detective. The Mafia will not reveal anything by killing one of their own. CLAW HAS ALL BUT SAID "I AM SCUM" AND YOU GUYS REFUSE TO VOTE HIM. WHAT KIND OF "EVIDENCE" ARE YOU GUYS LOOKING FOR?!?!?! | ||
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