EPTNewbie Mini XII - Page 23
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
On May 06 2012 10:45 Gummy wrote: If a king's citadel is too strongly fortified, the best way to usurp his throne is to rely on the grace of God. Was counting on a Mattchew modkill. You're just too smart to fleece, man! :D thanks for clearing me bro. | ||
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
I need to medic hidden and on me for the remainer of the game. Our survival depends on the medic staying hidden. The longer he does, the better chances we have of winning the game going forward. | ||
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
Day 3 Matriarch the vanilla townie was found dead in the streets ~47 hours till lynch + Show Spoiler + Sorry for being late I am still in NYC and this is from my phone | ||
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
AcesRequiem Ange777 dahdum FirmTofu Gummy paschl 6 players. Gummy is gonna be lynched today, that means we will have 1 mafia left. The medic/jailer shouldnt claim. If you randomly get hit at night it will be worth it. If not claiming after the next night phase might be the way to go. I really doubt Ange is a scum so this means the last should be between Aces/dahdum. There is the tinfoil hat chance that Firm/Gummy is the mafiateam but aorn its unlikely. | ||
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Gummy returned as mafia. Thank god. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
It all started when Claw claimed medic and I claimed Detective right afterwards. Gummy did not want to attack into either of the two roles because the risk of a heal going through was too great. He saw my plan's potential and had to figure out some way to discredit it(and me) before it could come to fruition. Here's the critical part. He saw a hole in my logic and by extension in Claw's logic that he could exploit IF AND ONLY IF he could convince everyone that the mafia were going to play optimally. He used his game theory calculations as a veil to cover up the fact that he was basing everything on this primary underlying assumption--Mafia would act in their best possible interest. But would mafia really always act in their best possible interest, or would they be swayed by emotions and what they perceive the actions of others to be? Is this a numbers game, as Gummy asserts, or it is more psychological? I'll be the first to admit it. Gummy's logic wasn't fabricated. The problem was the underlying assumption. The assumption that should not have been assumed because the mafia: 1) May know anything about game theory (Information deficiency) 2) Could be Gummy himself, which he failed to acknowledge as a possibility. 3) May choose their actions based upon suboptimal play because of WIFOM. If Gummy can predict optimal play, then supoptimal play BECOMES optimal, does it not? No mafia wants their night actions predicted by a town member, and if they are forced to play suboptimally to circumvent that, they that suboptimal play becomes optimal because it turns into the best course of action. So why did Gummy claim medic? A short-sighted plan for a new guy who thinks he knows everything there is to know about mafia. He wanted to prove to everyone on this site that he was a force to be reckoned with and his deceptive skills in the art of persuasion were top-notch. A pretentious douchebag? Perhaps. I wouldn't go that far. I'd say he was looking to prove himself and made a critical blunder that overlooked basic logic in favor of making a spectacle of himself. For all his knowledge of game theory, he couldn't run run a simple cost-benefit analysis to predict the repercussions of his actions. What should have gone through Gummy's brain on Day 1: + Show Spoiler + If I claim medic and get Claw lynched... what will people think of me? He will either flip vanilla townie or medic and both of those flips would make me look bad. If he flips vanilla townie, I might be able to get out of a lynch, but if he flips medic, I'm screwed. How sure am I that this guy is a medic? Is he worth a lynch if he isn't? But what's the point? Either way I end up looking bad for no real gains for my team! Yeah, I might be able to get a medic lynched, but that would be at the cost of my own life! Conclusion: I should NOT claim medic and try to get Clawtrocity lynched. Remember that flip-flop thing he did on Day 1? That was your scum tell. I initially didn't believe it because I thought it was too obvious, and Gummy seemed like an intelligent guy, but that was my mistake. I thought Gummy was town only because I assumed that he was logical enough not to make such a serious blunder. Claiming medic as mafia on Day is poor play by any standards because it invites your eventual death. Hopefully the last mafia can keep this game interesting, but we are definitely far ahead at this point. We've only lost 3 vanillas in exchange for half of the mafia team. The medic is still safely hidden so if he survives one more night without me dying, we be able to safely investigate the rest of the town and clinch victory. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
##Vote: Dahdum Just so you know, if yo're wrong about me, you guys automatically lose. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
##Unvote: Dahdum ##Vote: FirmTofu | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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Ange777
Germany1164 Posts
It's not being wrong about you but being wrong about the next lynch that would make us lose. Even without Tofu confirming you mafia, your word is the least credible. ##Vote: Gummy My guess for the last mafia is Aces or Dahdum as well. Having Gummy very actively trying to confuse town and the other mafia member somehow lurking and hidden seems like a good strategy. Tofu and Paschl are both too active and pro town for that. I suggest Tofu to check Aces or Dahdum the following night. None of them were very active in this game so it's hard to guess. I'll check their filter later once more. If Tofu can get the crucial bit of information there will be a good chance for us to win this game. | ||
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
1.) I pressured everybody to role claim to see if people would do something stupid. Claw and Tofu made questionable role claims. 2.) I put additional pressure on Claw by counter-revealing to see how he would react. Instead of backing down immediately in a reasonable manner or making some kind of convincing story, he just kept changing his story with, looking back, the probable intention to be as confusing as possible so as to somehow avoid getting targeted in night play. And just to be unpredictable and to troll. 3.) Night 1, Demorcef is lynched, because scum was genuinely confused by the accusations between me and Claw, somehow. 4.) Day 2, Claw gets lynched. I had all the reason going into the lynch to give him the boot seeing as his playstyle was consistent with either scum or a troll. Then at the last second he makes a goodbye post (with 30 minutes to go) that appeared to be a legit explanation that he never wanted to make during the course of the game. I felt full of anguish, but at that moment I knew I was wrong about his being scum and right about him being a troll. I changed my vote to no lynch in a last ditch effort to save him, but Paschl changed his vote to lynch second before he was to be saved. 5.) Night 2, I start spewing nonsense about how I'm Mafia so as to save myself for one more night. You will see how this is consistent if you go back and read over my post about why Claw's and Tofu's play were suspect. In particular, night play trolling is a proper example of case 1. The implications of it during night play are different, however, since you still get the chance to make a case for yourself, as I am now, during day play. Anyway, Matriarch gets killed. 6.) Day 3, Tofu puts is vote on me after claiming to be detective and having confirmed my guilt as Mafia. Matriarch just flipped as a VT, but Tofu already knew, assuming he was correct in being a detective. Therefore, Tofu, having lied about my alignment but having enough confidence to target Matriarch instead of one of the other inactives who he had not laid claim to, could only be operating under the certainty that Matriarch was indeed VT. Therefore, FirmTofu, given my information, can only be a Mafia Rolecop. I suspect he did use his check on me last night and he knows that I am medic. This also gives an explanation as to why he seemingly wasted a check on matriarch the night before. He knew for a fact that neither Claw nor I were scum, but he already knew that at least one of us was medic. Subsequently, he just used his check arbitrarily on the remaining townspeople to get information that might be more useful. Suggested Course of action 1.) Now is the time to make counter claims. If I (or any VT) gets lynched today, it is an autoloss. (Since Tofu knows that I am medic, he will just target me tonight for the victory since I cannot protect myself). Everybody should reveal their role today, since we lose automatically on a mislynch and nolynch leads to 2/5 scum without medic, which strongly, strongly favors mafia. 2.) DO NOT vote me. If you vote me you lose. Plain and simple. Do not be swayed by peer pressure at this stage in the game. Mafia have two votes, and they will very likely use them together so as to increase their chance of immediate victory. That is not to say that you should clear people based on who they vote for. Use your own reasoning. Take a good 5 minutes and think it over before you vote. 3.) We must get a majority or we will have an automatic no lynch, which is terrible for the reasons described above. You need to stay active and make sure that your vote counts today. Think before you vote. In particular filter through the post history of the person you are considering to vote for and make sure you can point to incriminating evidence in their posts. Tofu has such incriminating, unexplained/mis-explained action. I do not. His accusation of me a few posts up doesn't actually contain any evidence incriminating me. His argument can be reduced to simply saying "I found out that he's mafia. Given that he's mafia, he screwed up in his play." Nowhere does he say "This is why Gummy is Mafia." If you presume that I'm actually the medic, as I am, you can see that none of his accusations carry the slightest weight. 4.) A point of caution . Tofu may actually be bad and there might be a framer who targeted me last night. Then lynching him would lead to the same instant defeat. HOWEVER, this explanation is contingent on there being a framer, which given the random distribution of role assignment observed in previous games, is less than 1/2. A vote on tofu, then, is a gamble with winning expectation, but very high variance. Unfortunately, I can't say that there exists another vote, with the information I have, with positive expectation REGARDLESS of variance. 5.) Keep your eye on Paschl . He may be using feigned short temper to mask scummy play as emotionally influenced play. His last-minute vote-change to Claw after I, the person who had led the vendetta against Claw withdrew my vote, is hugely suspect. | ||
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