EPTSurprisingly Normal Mini Mafia XI - Page 24
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
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Pure-SC2
United Kingdom1440 Posts
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The_Zen_Man
Sweden202 Posts
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Pure-SC2
United Kingdom1440 Posts
As an aside, I really don't like the way replacements work as we don't have any voting information for Aces/Marvellosity for day 1 which is the most significant evidence we have to date, and with Aces being so scummy in his play it just adds confusion regardless of what alignment marvellosity is. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
Pure: imo voting information is simply a not-that-strong heuristic at this stage. Scummy/townie motivations in posting is in most cases the primary evidence. FYI, I have not read Aces' filter this game. Perhaps I should. The impressions I get from the cases against him (me) from other filters is that he was a weak player and lurky. Of which I am neither. | ||
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Pure-SC2
United Kingdom1440 Posts
On May 02 2012 23:43 marvellosity wrote: Zen: I'll go back and take a look. Anything further to add or still much the same? Pure: imo voting information is simply a not-that-strong heuristic at this stage. Scummy/townie motivations in posting is in most cases the primary evidence. FYI, I have not read Aces' filter this game. Perhaps I should. The impressions I get from the cases against him (me) from other filters is that he was a weak player and lurky. Of which I am neither. I disagree. If the day 1 vote had lynched a townie, I would agree with this. But the fact is we lynched a mafia. That means that the voting results are more significant, and the fact we have one player who didn't have to show a vote is a hole in that as far as I'm concerned which I find frustrating. Oh well, can't be changed. Why do I think it's more significant? Because it gives you this picture to look at which then allows you to focus your investigations. And when you include the info on who has flipped town since, and factor in your own town reads, then suddenly the focus becomes more more specific. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
Perhaps you've had more luck than me, but I had frustratingly little success trying to peg people one way or another with the Veriat lynch. As an example, 1/2 of Jailbreaker/Splinter voted Veriat, and they were both townie | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 02 2012 23:58 Pure-SC2 wrote: Why do I think it's more significant? Because it gives you this picture to look at which then allows you to focus your investigations. And when you include the info on who has flipped town since, and factor in your own town reads, then suddenly the focus becomes more more specific. Further to the bolded in particular, I am not approaching my scumhunting like this. | ||
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WhySoMuch
132 Posts
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Pure-SC2
United Kingdom1440 Posts
On May 03 2012 00:05 marvellosity wrote: Further to the bolded in particular, I am not approaching my scumhunting like this. I was referring to myself there. I've done complete filter reviews and have found so much contradictory posting so far. I.e., someone will have done a few things which independently look suspicious to me, but have also done things that look obviously townie to me. Therefore I'm looking at ways to focus my investigations on who I believe are the most likely scum candidates, and trying to find the pattern that exists somewhere. I would hope we are all doing scumhunting in our own ways so that when we start posting our analysis, we can (hopefully) get independent corroboration of our reads. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On April 28 2012 18:29 Pure-SC2 wrote: I'm getting an off read on WhySoMuch, I don't really understand it so just going to post my thoughts in case someone else can make something out of it. So we're playing a newbie game here, for people who've played 3 or less games. yet here he is so ingrained in his Wolves/Villages thing that he can't even proof read his posts to change it to reflect the fact we're playing Mafia here, on the TL mafia forums, in which everyone else is referencing mafia/scum and townies? How many games do you have to have played to get it that ingrained in your head? And after its been mentioned by a few people, why wouldn't he make any effort to do something about it? Yet his posts seem well thought out and carefully worded. He goes on and asks the most basic fundamental questions that can be answered by using the tiniest bit of logical thought (how to quote posts and view more posts on a page), which doesn't line up with the fact that his posts seem to be well thought out and logical. I don't trust him. It's like he's playing this naive, simpleton role here so that he won't come under suspicion. + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2012 04:12 Pure-SC2 wrote: WhySoMuch seems to like the bandwagon based of who's voting for AcecAnoka, not because he think's he's scum. Hmm. + Show Spoiler + On April 29 2012 04:18 Pure-SC2 wrote: In the space of 20 minutes, WhySoMuch has flipped votes 3 times. I'm getting more and more suspicious of this guy. Then your last read on him is this: On May 01 2012 18:08 Pure-SC2 wrote: WhySoMuch - he is causing so much confusion and distraction with the way he is posting. I actually have a neutral read on him but my plan is to just ignore him for now. He's either playing a very deep and layered deception play or has so many bad preconceived notions of what to look for that it's just not worth engaging in. He may need to be looked at closer depending on what happens over the day/night cycle. My spoilers are by no means all the times you've posted on WhySoMuch. You claim suspicions of his posts many times, but in your read there, he is 'neutral'. I would like an explanation, and I would like it above and beyond "he's playing weirdly" because I've not included anything on his funny fixation on town lists and what have you. | ||
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Pure-SC2
United Kingdom1440 Posts
The specific things I've found townie: - Puts me and The_Zen_Man on a never vote list. Now I know I am town, and I have a town read on TZM, and therefore I can't see a mafia stating this. - Stated his strong read that Splinter was town. Again, I can't see a scum motivation for stating this. *unless as mafia he was anticipating the mod kill/town flip and seeking to gain cred that way - but thats just WIFOM. I really struggle with his odd logic, and as such I can't get a solid read. I'd be interested if anyone has any further suspicions against him, TZM made some good points yesterday. The vote flipping seems way more suspicious to me than Golden's vote switch that ended up lynching Veriat. I had a theory earlier that either him or golden was scum, i.e., if one flipped town the other would flip scum, but I'm not so sure on that any more as I can't make a strong case against either. There is a chance (and I've stated this before) that he is playing some deep deception here. I can't confirm it from the information available though so leaving it at that for now. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 03 2012 01:06 Pure-SC2 wrote: @marvellosity - Honestly, I'm struggling with WhySoMuch. I have found many of his actions suspicious (which is what you've spoilered there), but he's also posted several things which seem extremely town, leading me to getting mass confusion from his points and his reads, further leading me to wanting to ignore him at this stage. The specific things I've found townie: - Puts me and The_Zen_Man on a never vote list. Now I know I am town, and I have a town read on TZM, and therefore I can't see a mafia stating this. - Stated his strong read that Splinter was town. Again, I can't see a scum motivation for stating this. *unless as mafia he was anticipating the mod kill/town flip and seeking to gain cred that way - but thats just WIFOM. I really struggle with his odd logic, and as such I can't get a solid read. I'd be interested if anyone has any further suspicions against him, TZM made some good points yesterday. The vote flipping seems way more suspicious to me than Golden's vote switch that ended up lynching Veriat. I had a theory earlier that either him or golden was scum, i.e., if one flipped town the other would flip scum, but I'm not so sure on that any more as I can't make a strong case against either. There is a chance (and I've stated this before) that he is playing some deep deception here. I can't confirm it from the information available though so leaving it at that for now. Ok, seems a decent answer :> I noticed the Splinter thing too, but I don't necessarily have the pro-town slant on it you have. One thing to note - scum know for sure who town are, town do not. | ||
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Pure-SC2
United Kingdom1440 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 03 2012 01:27 Pure-SC2 wrote: Yup, agree with you there (hence my WIFOM comment). Just hard to imagine scum essentially making it near to impossible to lynch 3 townies. But based on other posts, definitely not outside the realms of possibility with him. You seem to have accidentally bought into WSM's townie-post logic there  I'm definitely viewing his "who looks good for voting Veriat" list as a separate entity to him calling Splinter town. | ||
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The_Zen_Man
Sweden202 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36160 Posts
On May 03 2012 01:48 The_Zen_Man wrote: marvellosity: I will add some stuff during the day, just waiting the night out for now. If I could make a suggestion - make/write your post and post it just before the day deadline. That way if you are killed we can still see your analysis, but it will be too late for mafia to act on any late information. For reference, I posted one minute before day-post in Mafia LIII, and in the day-post it was revealed I had been killed. | ||
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WhySoMuch
132 Posts
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The_Zen_Man
Sweden202 Posts
marvellosity: Yeah, maybe, if i just find the time to do it. | ||
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WhySoMuch
132 Posts
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